Kuzul

They say numbers never lie, and this also rings true for the 2014 Boston Red Sox. A maddeningly inconsistent but nonetheless exciting start to the season has left the Red Sox with plenty of reasons for both optimism and doubt moving forward as the weather warms up and players fully enter their regular-season grooves.

It’s difficult to encapsulate the Red Sox’s up-and-down season in words, but it’s somewhat easier to tell the story of the first five-plus weeks of the season through statistics. When you look at the numbers, it’s clear where we can expect this Boston team to improve, where it might struggle all year and why it’s played below its talent level thus far.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at the five most telling Red Sox stats from early 2014.

Unless otherwise attributed, all of the following stats come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

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The Boston Red Sox are scuffling as the calendar turns to May, and Felix Doubront is becoming a poster boy for their struggles. Soon, he could be a part of a wave of changes for the team, as the Red Sox should think long and hard about replacing Doubront in the rotation if his inconsistency persists into late May and early June.

The Venezuelan left-hander threw six innings of three-run ball against the Rays on Thursday night in what was one of his better starts of the year. That effort dropped his ERA on the season to 5.70, as Doubront earned a no-decision while registering a quality start, keeping his team competitive in the second half of a doubleheader.

While Doubront was far from dominant, every non-disastrous start is of importance for him, as he looks to stave off competition from a number of intriguing young pitchers, experienced starters in the Boston bullpen and the possibility of a midseason trade for a starter. The Red Sox have no shortage of options if they decide to replace Doubront, and it’s something they should begin to consider more seriously in the near future.

On the season, Doubront‘s 5.70 ERA is accompanied by a 6.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 1.57 WHIP. He’s already allowed five homers and 35 hits in 30 innings and is averaging just five innings per start. According to FanGraphs, he’s been worth 0.2 fWAR.

In a way, the six-game sample size with which we have to work from Doubront‘s 2014 season perfectly represents what’s made him so frustrating to watch throughout his career. So far this season, Doubront has had one good start, three acceptable-but-uninspired starts and two disastrous starts. According to Bill James’ Game Score, which rates performances on a scale that uses 50 as average, Doubront has scores of 47, 25, 47, 61, 25 and 52, respectively, this year.

What we’re seeing from Doubront is nothing new. In fact, over his first six starts last season, Doubront was actually worse than he’s been in 2014, registering a 6.03 ERA with an opponent batting line of .307/.390/.420. He then went on to throw 79.2 innings of baseball with a 2.71 ERA from mid-May through July before fading down the stretch.

Doubront ended up producing 2.8 fWAR of value last season, finishing with a 4.32 ERA, 3.78 fielding-independent pitching (FIP) mark and respectable walk (3.94) and strikeout (7.71) rates. Still just 26 years old, it’s understandable why the Red Sox don’t want to give up on that sort of potential just yet.

But the Red Sox got off to a roaring start last season, and they were able to to live with some bumps in the road as Doubront worked through his early struggles. Boston also lacked the plethora of options in the high minors that they have today, so Doubront‘s leash was a bit longer than it should be in 2014.

Doubront is out of options and can’t be sent to the minor leagues, but Boston could use the ever-popular “phantom DL” stint to allow him to work through his issues while on a rehab assignment. Or they could transition Doubront to a bullpen role, which is a role he excelled in during the 2013 postseason.

If Boston does decide to pull Doubront from the rotation, here are some of the options they have to replace him:

Rubby De La Rosa

The general sense I get is that De La Rosa has faded a bit from Red Sox fans’ collective consciousness since his inclusion in the “Nick Punto deal” from mid-2012. When De La Rosa came to Boston, his prospect status was already exhausted, and unlike fellow former Dodger Allen Webster or other young arms like Matt Barnes or Henry Owens, he did not make yearly appearances on major prospect lists.

While many thought the Red Sox would use De La Rosa out of the bullpen due to his history of arm troubles, Boston instead elected to stretch “RDLR” out, and that’s a call that appears to be paying off. After an up-and-down 2013 season in Triple-A, De La Rosa is dominating in 2014, as he has thrown 27.2 innings in Pawtucket with a 2.28 ERA, 8.13 K/9 and 2.28 BB/9.

De La Rosa still isn’t pitching late into his starts, and the sample size right now is too small to declare that his troubles with command and control are completely in the past. But it’s been a very promising start to the year for De La Rosa, nonetheless, and he’s a strong candidate to replace Doubront as a long-term option with significant upside.

Brandon Workman

Workman is good enough to pitch important innings out of a major league bullpen right now, and that is indeed the role in which he began the season. But after Craig Breslow returned from the DL, Workman was sent back to Triple-A to continue his development as a starter and to get stretched out for possible use in that capacity in Boston later in the season.

The immediate results haven’t been very pretty, as Workman has been roughed up in three starts in 14.1 innings for Pawtucket. But this is a player who has already proven to be an effective pitcher, both in Triple-A and at the major league level, albeit in small sample sizes. The upside with Workman is modest, but he’s a very useful arm to have in the organization, nonetheless.

Chris Capuano

Capuano lacks the sex appeal or name value of the plethora of young pitchers down on the farm, but he could be Boston’s choice if they simply decide to skip Doubront for a turn or two in the rotation rather than replace him altogether. A fellow southpaw like Doubront, Capuano lacks Doubront‘s upside, but he is a steadier performer.

Capuano has been dominant in the bullpen this season, so it would hurt to lose his arm at a time when Edward Mujica and Koji Uehara are struggling. But he’s also proven to be an adequate-if-unexciting starter as recently as last year, when he made 20 starts for the Dodgers. The Red Sox probably wouldn’t want him to approach that number of starts this season, but he could serve the team well if he gets three to six outings.

Allen Webster

Fans who don’t follow the minor leagues and only remember Webster from his disastrous MLB stint last year will cringe at this suggestion, but there is more to Webster than meets the eye. He might have the best pure stuff of any of Boston’s promising young arms, and he has the most experience at Triple-A, too. He’s off to a decent start in Pawtucket this season, as he continues to refine his command and work on inducing ground balls.

In some ways, many of the problems that plague Doubront—command, mental toughness, a propensity to give up homers and repeating his delivery—plague Webster, too. Yet the upside is there for Webster to perform as a No. 3 starter who throws the occasional clunker, and the Red Sox wouldn’t be nuts to give him another shot in the major league rotation.

Other Options

There are other potential in-house choices to replace Doubront as well. Henry Owens has the highest upside of any Red Sox minor leaguer (with the possible exception of De La Rosa), and he could be ready for the majors later in the year. Matt Barnes’ upside is a tick below Owens’, but he’s a bit closer to being MLB-ready. And Anthony Ranaudo is another option if he starts throwing well in Pawtucket.

If Doubront‘s struggles persist into the middle of the season, the Red Sox could also use their highly rated farm system to swing a deal for a mid-rotation starter, similar to what they accomplished last year in acquiring Jake Peavy. In fact, for a rebuilding team looking to shed salary and take on a player with some upside, Doubront may be a fairly enticing trade chip as part of a larger package.

That’s getting ahead of ourselves, of course, and I firmly believe that Doubront deserves another few turns in the rotation before the Red Sox make a drastic move. Boston apparently feels that way, too, as Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported Thursday that the Sox aren’t considering bumping Doubront from the rotation just yet.

But with Clay Buchholz also struggling mightily and the Sox finding themselves three games under .500 in May, Boston can’t afford to run Doubront out for another 10 starts if only half of them are going to be competitive. At some point, they need to use the wealth of minor league talent they’ve accumulated to improve the major league team.

Doubront‘s future with the Red Sox is completely in his own hands. Whether that will prove to be his saving or his undoing is anyone’s guess.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Boston Red Sox are in need of a spark to ignite their once-powerful offense. They’re hoping Shane Victorino can be the catalyst they need, as the team looks to regain the offensive magic that made them baseball’s best a season ago.

Victorino appeared in the majors for the first time this season on Thursday night, batting second and playing right field as he did for much of 2013. Victorino’s debut came after he opened the year on the disabled list with a right hamstring strain he suffered during the final game of spring training, depriving Boston of one of its best all-around players to open the season.

The immediate results were less than inspiring, as Victorino went just 1-for-5 and scored one run in what was a lopsided 14-5 Red Sox loss on Thursday. It will take some time for Victorino to get up to speed, as he’s had very few at-bats between spring training and his short rehab stint to get into playing shape. It’s unlikely that Victorino will be able to play the role of savior right away.

That being said, given the lackluster performance of Victorino’s replacements, how his presence lengthens the lineup and his sorely missed defensive prowess, it’s little wonder that the Red Sox, now 10-13 on the season, felt they needed Victorino back in the lineup as soon as possible.

For starters, let’s compare Victorino’s output to that of the four players who have seen time in right field in his absence. While “Shanf” has been on the DL, the Red Sox have relied on Daniel Nava (121 innings), Jackie Bradley Jr. (29), Grady Sizemore (27) and Jonny Gomes (23.2) to patrol right field. The results have not been very good.

Here’s a look at Victorino’s 2013 production compared to what Boston has received from its right fielders so far in 2014:

As you can see, there’s really no comparison. Victorino was one of the most productive right fielders in the majors last season from an offensive perspective, while his replacements have struggled mightily through 22 games in 2014. This is likely part of Boston’s incentive for getting Victorino back in the lineup immediately: No matter how bad he is, he’s unlikely to be worse than the current production they’re receiving.

Victorino’s presence also allows the Red Sox to reconfigure their lineup, adding depth to the lower-middle portion of the order while adding another player with a respectable OBP near the top. John Farrell also wants to bring more lineup stability to his club, as Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe has reported, as Boston’s batting order has changed many times throughout the season thanks to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness.

Here’s how the Red Sox are poised to stack up against right-handed pitchers with Victorino back in the daily lineup:

1. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
2. Shane Victorino, RF
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Mike Napoli, 1B
5. Grady Sizemore, LF
6. Xander Bogaerts, SS
7. A.J. Pierzynski, C
8. Will Middlebrooks, 3B
9. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF

Against left-handers, I’d expect the top-four names to remain the same, with Gomes slotting in for Sizemore in left field and hitting fifth. Will Middlebrooks, who will rejoin the team before Friday’s game in Toronto, should move up to seventh in the order against southpaws, and David Ross will replace Pierzynski behind the plate and bat eighth.

What you’re left with is a lineup that can more realistically accomplish Farrell’s stated goal of finishing as a top-five offensive club, as well as a lineup that has a better blend of power and speed. This configuration also takes some pressure off Sizemore, who’s slowed down after a hot start, and Bogaerts, who appears to be in an adjustment period and looks a bit lost at the plate.

Finally, and perhaps most obviously, the Red Sox are welcoming Victorino back because of his outstanding defense, especially at home in Fenway Park’s cavernous right field.

Last season, Victorino earned a Gold Glove for a defensive effort that metrics, scouts and fans alike universally rated as outstanding. According to FanGraphs, Victorino finished 2013 with a whopping 24 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 25.0, making him among the most valuable defenders in all of baseball. While J.D. Drew was a strong defender in right field and Trot Nixon could hold his own as well, some fans and reporters argued that Victorino was the best right field defender in Fenway they’d seen since Dwight Evans.

It’s never been easier to appreciate the impact of that defense than after watching Nava, Sizemore and Gomes stumble around ineffectively in right field this season, with limited range and weak arms (save for Gomes) actively hurting the Red Sox on several occasions. On nights when the Red Sox started Gomes in left field, Sizemore in center and Nava in right, you can make the case that Boston was deploying one of the worst defensive outfields in the game.

Now, the Red Sox can immediately turn that glaring deficiency into a strength by starting Sizemore in left, Bradley Jr. in center and Victorino in right a majority of the time. This gives Boston two plus-plus defenders, plus another outfielder with defensive potential in Sizemore. Defense has been one of the most obvious areas of regression for the Red Sox this year, and Victorino’s return should make an immediate positive impact in that regard.

When you combine Victorino’s offensive output, baserunning ability and defensive prowess, he was good for 5.6 fWAR last season, according to FanGraphs. That made him the 14th-most valuable offensive player in the game, and one of the true surprises of the 2013 season.  Victorino’s replacements this year were on track to finish as sub-replacement level performers, and the improvement the Red Sox should see by playing “the Flyin‘ Hawaiian” every day is quite significant.

Victorino may need a couple dozen plate appearances to get up to speed, and even once he does, he may not repeat his career year of 2013. But there’s little doubt that this Red Sox team needs a spark plug on both sides of the ball, and Farrell’s desire to place Victorino back in Boston’s lineup this quickly is understandable.

Through his superiority over his competition, ability to lengthen Boston’s lineup, baserunning acumen and outstanding defense, Victorino makes the Red Sox a much better, much more complete team. If he can reacclimate to major league life quickly, his walk-up music may speak the truth: Every little thing may indeed be alright for the Red Sox this year.

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From Wade Boggs to Luis Tiant to Johnny Damon, there has been no shortage of talented Red Sox players who have left Boston to join the “Evil Empire.” Jacoby Ellsbury became the latest Red Sox star to follow this trend this offseason, signing a seven-year, $153 million contract with the Yankees to play center field and lead off for the foreseeable future.

It’s the type of massive contract the Red Sox have sworn off of in the aftermath of the “Nick Punto deal,” and it’s the type of deal the Yankees needed to make given the dearth of talent in their farm system. Ellsbury was slated to face the Red Sox for the first time since his defection Tuesday, but then we learned the following:

It’s news that, while ultimately meaningless, underscores the risk involved in signing a player with a checkered medical history. In a vacuum, the Red Sox are worse off for losing Ellsbury, and the Yankees are a better team for adding him. But once you factor in the cost of Ellsbury compared to his replacements, Boston’s decision to let Ellsbury walk becomes far less cut and dry in favor of New York.

With that in mind, let’s look at the three areas of the game in which Ellsbury had the biggest impact and assess how the Red Sox can move forward without their former center fielder.

Offensive/Leadoff Ability

Ellsbury has served as the Red Sox’s primary leadoff hitter for the vast majority of the past six seasons, using plus speed, solid contact rates and a decent OBP to serve as a catalyst for what’s been one of the better offensive forces in baseball during that time. The Red Sox don’t have another player who can come in and do exactly what Ellsbury did, but that doesn’t mean they lack some appealing options at the top of the lineup nonetheless.

Shane Victorino would be the most logical choice from a profile perspective, as he doesn’t strike out much and has plus speed. Daniel Nava has the sort of impressive OBP that would appeal to sabermetric-types despite his lack of speed. Possible direct Ellsbury replacement Grady Sizemore is an option as a hitter who’s shown good speed and contact ability in the past. And even Xander Bogaerts’ name has been bandied about as a possible leadoff hitter, though he also lacks speed and might put up a lower OBP than Nava in 2014, too. Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston’s other possible Ellsbury replacement, isn’t ready to lead off yet, though he could one day in his prime.

Ultimately, the Red Sox would probably be best off with a platoon of Sizemore first and Nava second against right-handers and Victorino first and Bogaerts second against lefties. This would keep last year’s middle of the order of Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Mike Napoli intact and bolster the back end of the lineup as well. 

Speed

Ellsbury stole 52 bases in 2013, finishing first overall in raw number of steals and second overall in stolen base efficiency with a success rate of 92.86%. According to FanGraphs, he added 11.4 base running runs above average, and he’s been an outstanding baserunner and base stealer throughout his career. While Ellsbury is entering his age-30 season, there’s no reason to think he’ll slow down quite yet, and he could have another few seasons of 40-plus and many seasons of 20-plus steals on the horizon.

Simply put, the Red Sox cannot replace his speed. Victorino is the team’s best base stealer now, as he went 21-for-24 in attempts last season. Pedroia is also capable of nabbing 15 to 20 bases per year, but when it comes to speed on the current roster, that’s about it. Sizemore was a true five-tool talent capable of swiping 30-plus bases a year once upon a time, but he wasn’t terribly efficient in his prime and one would guess that the Red Sox would want him to be conservative on the bases now. Bradley has the center field profile that’s often associated with speed, but in reality he’s just an average runner, and it’s tough to see him swiping more than 10-15 bags a year.

Defense

This is the area in which the Red Sox are perhaps best equipped to replace Ellsbury. Sizemore is a bit of a wild card when it comes to center field defense. He both passed the eye test and was usually rated favorably by defensive metrics early in his career, but, at 31 years of age, there’s no real way for the Sox to know what kind of defender Sizemore will be moving forward. He’s appeared fine in center so far this spring, and the Red Sox do have the luxury of employing perhaps the best defensive right fielder in baseball in Shane Victorino. But it’s not hard to envision Sizemore as a downgrade from Ellsbury, who’s been criticized for his adventurous routes to the ball but still had enough speed to earn 27 defensive runs saved since 2011, according to FanGraphs.

With Bradley, however, the Red Sox wouldn’t skip a beat defensively in center field. Graded as a 6+ defender on the 2-8 scale by Baseball Prospectus this offseason, Bradley has long been lauded for his exceptional ability in center. While he’s significantly slower than Ellsbury, Bradley is a more instinctual player, getting great reads on the ball and providing enough in the way of speed to have plus range. Bradley’s arm is also significantly better than Ellsbury’s, making him a more complete and possibly better defender in the outfield than Ellsbury.

Conclusion

In the end, the Red Sox are going to be unable to make up for the loss of Ellsbury’s speed. He’s one of the most dynamic and efficient base stealers in the game and should continue to be so for the next two-to-four seasons, and there simply aren’t many major leaguers with that skill set. However, Boston is well positioned to replace most of Ellsbury’s offensive value and all of his defensive value, and given the massive savings they’ll gain by relying on Bradley and Sizemore, it’s a trade-off that’s more than acceptable if the remaining salary is allocated properly.

It will be tough for Sox fans to watch Ellsbury in a Yankees uniform, and Boston will miss Ellsbury for the next several seasons. But this is a loss from which the Red Sox can recover, and on a pure dollars-per-value basis, the decision to let Ellsbury walk could actually be a good one.

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Spring training statistics are quite limited in their usefulness. Hitters don’t accumulate enough plate appearances to give us a large enough sample size from which to draw conclusions. Pitchers are rounding into form, building up arm strength and facing inferior competition. Simply put, if you’re looking up a player’s spring stats and projecting them to have meaning over a full season, you’re doing it wrong.

Yet spring performances can be important insofar as they may decide positional battles, even on a team as deep and talented as the reigning World Series champs. There are fewer spots up for grabs in Boston than in many other MLB cities, but that doesn’t mean that the Red Sox Opening Day roster has been finalized just yet.

We still have a few weeks to go until the Red Sox open their season, and no player has truly helped or hurt his reputation enough to this point to seriously change how we evaluate him. That said, changes in the organizational depth chart are underway, and we’re gaining a clearer look at who’s likely to begin the season in the majors.

Small sample caveats aside, let’s look at three Red Sox on the way up and three on the way down this spring.

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