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MLB Free Agency: Winners and Losers of the 2013 Offseason

This MLB offseason has been like no other—that might be a stretch, but it’s still been extremely interesting to say the least.

A handful of general managers and front offices have picked apart their rosters and put their teams back at least five years.

Others, however, have taken a completely different approach. Smart teams have tried to improve their teams for the short-and-long-term via adding players through free agency and making trades. At times, even, teams improved by letting a player walk during free agency or trading away a veteran for a promising young star.

Nearly each MLB team will have a somewhat different look to it in 2013 compared to last season and in most cases, for the better. Those who will be worse will be scrutinized by the media and fans later in the season.

For the time being, though, let’s take a look at the winners and losers of the offseason thus far.

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Boston Red Sox: Updates on Each Boston Arbitration-Eligible Player

Boston Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington and his staff were extremely busy exchanging figures with arbitration-eligible players and trying to work out new deals on Friday.

Cherington was extremely successful, to say the least, and has a great chance of avoiding arbitration altogether, a place where Boston hasn’t gone since 2002, according to Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe:

The only unsigned player is LHP Craig Breslow. He filed for $2.375 million and the Sox filed for $2.325 million. It seems fair to say they’ll be able to find common ground given the Sox have not gone to a hearing with a player since 2002. Their streak seems sure to continue.

But outside of Breslow, let’s see how Cherington did with other players on what turned out to be an exciting day in Boston (all figures via Abraham’s report).

 

Andrew Bailey, Relief Pitcher

After an injury-plagued year where Andrew Bailey only pitched in 19 games, he enters 2013 as Boston’s setup man instead of its closer.

Bailey needs to make the most of his new role—a role where I think he’ll do just fine. Bailey made $3.9 million last season and avoided going to arbitration by settling on a $0.2 million increase for 2013. 

 

Daniel Bard, Relief Pitcher

Daniel Bard’s 2012 campaign was an absolute disaster. He started the season in the Red Sox rotation and immediately struggled.

Bard went down to the minor leagues to try and figure things out, but he just couldn’t do it. He’s best suited coming out of the bullpen, which is where he’ll be in 2013. Bard will make $1.8625 million this year after avoiding arbitration.

 

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Catcher

Jarrod Saltalamacchia enters 2013 with a lot to prove. The Red Sox are about ready to give prospect Ryan Lavarnway a shot, they signed David Ross over the offseason and Mike Napoli is also more than capable of catching.

Setting a career high with 25 home runs last season, Saltalamacchia will earn $2 million more than 2012, going from $2.5 million to $4.5 million by avoiding arbitration.

 

Andrew Miller, Relief Pitcher

Andrew Miller hopes to be one of the left-handers coming out of John Farrell’s bullpen in 2013.

Miller was one of the mainstays in Boston’s pen last season, throwing in 53 games and posting a 3.35 ERA in 40.1 innings. He also has the capability of spot-starting if the Red Sox need him to. Miller will make $1.475 million in 2013 compared to his 2012 salary of $1.04 million by avoiding arbitration. 

 

Jacoby Ellsbury, Outfielder

Jacoby Ellsbury got a generous increase by avoiding arbitration with the Red Sox despite not doing much for them in 2012.

Ellsbury will make around $1 million more in 2013, as he’s scheduled to earn $9 million after avoiding arbitration. He played in just 74 games due to injury last season, hitting .271/.313/.682 with four home runs and 26 RBI after coming off of a second-place MVP finish in 2012. 

 

Alfredo Aceves, Relief Pitcher

Alfredo Aceves stepped up in a big way when Andrew Bailey was unable to be Boston’s closer last season and ended up saving 25 games.

Aceves made $1.2 million last season and was highly awarded for his performances, avoiding arbitration and agreeing to a one-year deal worth $2.65 million. Aceves is a good guy to have in the bullpen, but I think that’s a big increase for a guy who had a 5.36 ERA in 55 games last year.

 

Joel Hanrahan, Relief Pitcher

2013 will be a coming-out party for Boston’s newest closer, Joel Hanrahan. Hanrahan was the closer of the Pittsburgh Pirates the past two seasons before being traded to the Red Sox this offseason.

Hanrahan has saved 76 games over the last two years and will earn considerably more money than he ever has before. Hanrahan agreed to a one-year deal worth $7.04 million for 2013 after making $4.1 million this past season.

 

Franklin Morales, Relief Pitcher

Franklin Morales did a great job in Boston’s bullpen and in the starting rotation last season. He’s probably one of the most valuable and reliable arms that the Red Sox have on their roster.

Morales made well under $1 million last season but will earn $1.487 million this upcoming season by agreeing to a one-year deal. Although he made a couple of starts in 2012, I wouldn’t expect to see him in the first inning very often in 2013. Boston needs to keep him pitching in the bullpen instead of flip-flopping him between starter and reliever.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Boston Red Sox: Boston Should Trade for Michael Morse, Ditch Mike Napoli

Why should the Boston Red Sox continue to try and finalize a contract with a doomed Mike Napoli when there are better options on the table? That’s right, they shouldn’t.

It’s now been over a month since Boston agreed to a three-year deal with Napoli. That agreement still hasn’t been finalized or officially announced. Whatever the Red Sox are trying to put into Napoli’s contract should he get injured clearly isn’t floating his boat.

The Red Sox were given a gift of finding out that Napoli had red flags in his medicals before officially putting him on the books and yet they continue to try and work things out. It’s time to stop these negotiations and move on to another player who can play first base each day.

Boston failed to land Adam LaRoche, who re-signed with the Washington Nationals on a two-year deal. The Red Sox were probably reluctant to give up a draft pick and draft money if they signed him, but he’s no longer an option so cross him off the list.

But LaRoche’s signing does impact the Red Sox in a different manner. With Washington bringing LaRoche back to play first base, that leaves Michael Morse without a spot in the everyday lineup.

Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post writes that Morse is pretty much a goner:

Adam LaRoche’s agreement with the Nationals today, coupled with an outfield chocked full of players whose contractual rights with the Nationals control for years to come, leads to the clear conclusion that Michael Morse is the odd man out and will almost certainly be traded before the Nationals report for spring training in a five weeks.

Morse hit .291/.321/.470 with 18 home runs and 62 RBI in 102 games with Washington last season. He mainly played the outfield for the National League East champions in 2012, but first base was his primary position the year prior.

Is that or is that not exactly what the Red Sox need?

There’s a major void at first base with Mauro Gomez the only option outside of finalizing the Napoli deal. Neither of those are good options at the moment. Morse has a power swing that would work out nicely at Fenway Park and he could play first base nearly every day.

Morse could also be used as the fourth outfielder, mainly playing instead of Jonny Gomes when facing right-handed starters. Gomes has a career .732 against right-handed arms whereas Morse has a career .830 OPS against them. In this situation, Gomez would fill in at first base when Morse shifts to the outfield.

The great part about trading for a guy like Morse is that it won’t be nearly as expensive as signing Napoli to a three-year deal.

Amanda Comak of The Washington Times reports that with LaRoche coming back to Washington, the asking price on Morse could drop:

Obviously this would bode well for Boston as giving up as little as possible would be what the Red Sox would look to do. This comes especially since Morse is only under contract for one more season and is not guaranteed to sign a long-term extension.

Jim Bowden of ESPN reports what the Nationals are most likely looking for in exchange for Morse:

Last time I checked, the Red Sox had a surplus of left-handed relievers. Franklin Morales is probably the most valuable between himself, Andrew Miller and Craig Breslow and could be a player Washington would want in return. Do the Red Sox absolutely need to keep Morales? No, they don’t.

Boston also has plenty of decent prospects that they could part ways with. Dealing someone like Morales and a prospect in exchange for a player who absolutely fills the biggest void on the team doesn’t sound like that bad of a deal.

By acquiring Morse, Boston has the capability of either signing him to an extension or letting him walk in free agency and seeing how the market looks.

Boston was going to give Napoli $39 million over three seasons and for all intents and purposes, let’s assume that he would earn $13 million per season. That would mean that Boston would save $6.5 million in 2013 and as much as $32.5 million should they go with Morse over Napoli.

Morse has been banged up in his career too, but isn’t nearly as big of a concern as Napoli currently is.

The smartest move Boston could make this offseason would be to forget about Napoli and do its best to pry Morse from Washington. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Offseason Grades for Every MLB Team, Post-New Year Edition

Since the conclusion of Game 4 of the 2012 World Series, it’s been non-stop action in the front offices of MLB franchises.

Teams have been working diligently to improve their clubs for 2013 and beyond through free agency and trades. Thus far, an MVP award winner—Josh Hamilton—and two Cy Young Award winners—R.A. Dickey and Zack Greinke—have switched homes.

Many of the top free agents on the market have been signed, but there are still plenty of impact players remaining—and the mystery team is always in the mix to land a star.

Let’s take a look at the notable additions and subtractions of each team and grade them on how well or poor their offseason has gone so far.

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Boston Red Sox: Bold Predictions for Each Hitter in Boston’s Starting Lineup

The Boston Red Sox had their fair share of surprises and disappointments in 2012—more on the side of disappointments, though—as the club finished in the cellar of the American League East.

Although their win-loss record doesn’t reflect anything positive from last season, don’t forget that Boston was still solid in several offensive categories. The Red Sox scored the eighth-most runs, had the 10th-highest batting average and the 12th-highest slugging percentage.

Injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Will Middlebrooks never gave former manager Bobby Valentine the opportunity to field a consistent lineup. Boston ended up using 143 batting orders, and the most common was only put to use four times.

General manager Ben Cherington has made a couple of changes to his team’s offense in order to try to compete for a playoff spot in 2013. Those changes include signing backup catcher David Ross, outfielders Jonny Gomes and Shane Victorino, and agreeing to terms with catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli—although that deal has yet to be finalized and announced.

Boston now has a core group of players who can help it on the field as well as in the clubhouse. There’s no reason to believe that the 2013 lineup can’t be one of the best in baseball.

Here are projections of what that lineup could look like, including a bold prediction for each player.

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Game-Changing Defensive Players Still on the Market

Teams this offseason have been looking to find free agents who are going to hit a bunch of home runs or win a lot of games, when they should be taking a player’s defensive skills into consideration.

Just because a free agent doesn’t have the best on-base or slugging percentage doesn’t mean that they can’t be valuable. And just because a pitcher doesn’t throw 90 miles per hour doesn’t mean that they aren’t worthy of a spot in the starting rotation.

For example, Brendan Ryan had the fifth-best UZR/150 out of every player in Major League Baseball (via FanGraphs) while hitting under .200 for the year. Because of his defensive prowess, he finished 2012 with a 1.7 WAR (via FanGraphs).

Now, teams may not want to start a guy like Ryan since he’s not very productive at the plate. But would a team sign him just as a defensive replacement late in the game? You bet. Unfortunately, however, he’s not a free agent and teams will have to find similar players who can add value on defense.

Here are some of those players who are still available and can help a team win games just based on their defense. 

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Kyle Lohse: Ranking Most Likely Destinations for Free Agent Pitcher

Kyle Lohse remains one of the top starting pitchers on the free-agent market after going 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 211 innings for the St. Louis Cardinals last season.

The signings of Zack Greinke with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Anibal Sanchez with the Detroit Tigers, Ryan Dempster with the Boston Red Sox and Dan Haren with the Washington Nationals have really opened up the market for Lohse, but he still hasn’t decided where he wants to pitch in 2013 and beyond.

Here are some of the teams interested in signing the right-hander this offseason, ranked by least likely to most likely.

 

Kansas City Royals

The Royals feel as if the time to contend is now and are going full force ahead to try and do so. That means acquiring solid starting pitching talent, something Kansas City has lacked in year’s past. Kansas City made their first notable move of the offseason trading for Ervin Santana, formerly with the Los Angeles Angels.

Lohse would be a costly addition for the Royals, but they were still in touch with him, according to Danny Knobler of CBS Sports:

 

 

It seems the Royals didn’t want to spend the money on Lohse and decided to trade top prospect Wil Myers for Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher James Shields in a six-player deal instead. Adding Lohse to the rotation now seems extremely unlikely unless Kansas City wants to take on significant payroll.

 

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels traded for right-hander Zack Greinke at the July 31 trade deadline last season hoping to lock him up long-term. That didn’t happen and Greinke ended up signing with Los Angeles’ crosstown rivals, the Dodgers.

Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports, Greinke was their top choice:

 

 

As previously mentioned, the Angels traded away Ervin Santana—but later made up for it by acquiring Tommy Hanson from the Atlanta Braves. With the hopes of boosting the overall team after the loss of Greinke, the Angels went out and signed Josh Hamilton to a monster deal.

The starting rotation could still use another arm to help contend with the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics next season and by using process of elimination, only Lohse, Edwin Jackson and Joe Saunders are still on their list of potential acquisitions.

 

Texas Rangers

The Rangers have lost a ton of talent this offseason and have yet to do much of anything thus far. Texas failed to sign Greinke and Hamilton—arguably the top two players on the market—and lost catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli to free agency as well.

Texas already has a very good starting rotation that includes Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison and Derek Holland, among others, but the Rangers need to make up for losing two of their best players. They could do so with Lohse, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports:

 

 

Sanchez has already signed with the Tigers so that leaves Lohse as a potential addition to Texas’ staff.

The only way that the Rangers will be able to top the incredible lineup of the Angels is through deep pitching, and adding Lohse provides that. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Full Predictions for Kevin Youkilis’ 2013 Stats with the New York Yankees

The New York Yankees have filled their void at third base—left by the ailing Alex Rodriguez—by signing free-agent infielder Kevin Youkilis on Tuesday, reported first by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

Youkilis hit .235/.336/.409 with 19 home runs and 72 RBI last season between the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago White Sox, but how will he fare in New York in 2013?

The 33-year-old corner infielder has been a solid power option in the middle of the lineup in Boston and Chicago over the course of his career, hitting at least 17 home runs in each of the last six seasons. Youkilis will be going from two of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball into one where there are short porches in both left and right field.

Looking at Youkilis’ career numbers at Yankee Stadium, New York may have been better off drafting him and letting him come up through their system instead of acquiring him so late in his career. The reason: the old Yankee Stadium versus the new Yankee Stadium.

Youkilis was significantly more productive at the old Yankee Stadium than he has been at the new Yankee Stadium. He hit .312/.437/.468 with 12 extra-base hits and 17 RBI in 31 games from 2004 through 2008 (the old Yankee Stadium). From 2009 through last season (new Yankee Stadium), Youkilis hit .233/.337/.397 with four extra-base hits and 15 RBI in 20 games.

Obviously the Yankees can’t go back in time so they’ll hope that Youkilis can transform his swing to fit the new Yankee Stadium even though there aren’t many major differences between the two ballparks.

Youkilis’ approach at the plate next season will also be looked at through a microscope. While his strikeout numbers have stayed relatively steady—averaging over 100 strikeouts when playing at least 120 games—his walk -rates have been up and down.

From 2005 through 2008, Youkilis’ walk rate dropped from 14.7 percent to 10 percent. He ended up raising it to an average of 13.2 percent from 2009 through 2011, but last year it went back to 10 percent.  It is interesting to note that the two times his walk rate has touched 10 percent, he recorded an OPS of .958 (2008) and .745 (2012).

One possible explanation is Youkilis’ health. In 2008, Youkilis played in 145 games. Over the past two seasons he’s experienced lower back issues which may have altered his approach at the plate. In those seasons he’s missed nearly 100 games. Could his back have something to do with his walk rate? That’s definitely something to keep in mind when watching him in 2013; is his back healthy?

If he’s healthy, expect average to above-average numbers from Youkilis, but if he isn’t, Yankees fans will be looking to send him on the quickest train north to Boston.

2013 Predictions: .262/.365/.478, 18 HR, 79 RBI, 77 R

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Boston Red Sox: Free Agent Starting Pitchers Boston Could Add at Winter Meetings

The Boston Red Sox made their first big splash at the Winter Meetings on Monday morning, signing catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli to a three-year, $39 million deal. While Boston still needs to focus on filling voids in the outfield and potentially at shortstop, the Red Sox also need at least one more starting pitcher to round out their starting rotation.

While rumors will continue to fly around Nashville, Tennessee over the next couple of days, here’s a look at three free-agent starting pitchers that Boston could end up landing. 

 

Kyle Lohse

Kyle Lohse had a career year with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2012, going 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 211 innings of work. At 33 years old, Lohse would be an ideal addition to Boston’s rotation next to Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports confirms the team’s interest:

“The Angels and Red Sox have emerged as two of the suitors for star free-agent pitcher Kyle Lohse. Lohse, like Anibal Sanchez, is likely to wait for the market setter, Zack Greinke, to sign first.”

Lohse hasn’t pitched in the American League since 2006 when he was taking the mound for the Minnesota Twins, and never had much success until he switched leagues. In six seasons with the Twins, Lohse went 51-57 with a 4.88 ERA. 

 

Anibal Sanchez

Anibal Sanchez is another intriguing free-agent option who has been relatively consistent over the course of his career with the Miami Marlins and Detroit Tigers. Pitching for both teams in 2012, Sanchez went 9-13 with a 3.86 ERA in 195.2 innings, having an ERA of 20 fewer points with the Tigers.

Sanchez is considered one of the top starters on the market and has drawn a lot of interest from a variety of teams, and a bidding war is bound to ensue shortly. Boston does have interest in securing the right-hander, but the price may be too steep already, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports:

If the Red Sox were to sign Sanchez, he would likely become the No. 2 starter behind Jon Lester, hurling before Clay Buchholz. Boston needs Sanchez’s price tag to drop before they start figuring out who will start when, though.

 

Brandon McCarthy

Brandon McCarthy has been a great pitcher for the Oakland Athletics over the past two seasons, helping them win the American League West in 2012 with an 8-6 record and a 3.24 ERA. Although McCarthy’s win total hasn’t hit double-digits over the course of his seven-year career, his ERA hasn’t topped 3.32 over the past two seasons.

McCarthy would be the middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher that Boston needs to complete their rotation, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports they’re interested:

The A’s have been in contact with another of their free agents, starter Brandon McCarthy, but expected that there would be strong competition for the right-hander and they’re right: The Chronicle has learned that among the clubs already expressing interest are the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Cubs, the Royals, the Diamondbacks and the Twins—and the Angels and Rangers also are expected to join in.

McCarthy was struck in the head by a comebacker in September and ended up missing the remainder of the regular season and the entire postseason. He is expected to be completely healthy and ready to go for spring training.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


5 Reasons Why Boston Should Trade Jon Lester for Wil Myers

The Boston Red Sox and general manager Ben Cherington have an interesting decision to make: whether to trade veteran starting pitcher Jon Lester to the Kansas City Royals.

Kansas City is seeking front-line starting pitching help to aid the recent acquisitions of Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie. Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star reports that the Royals may be willing to give up top prospect Wil Myers in exchange for a Jon Lester or a James Shields.

“We’re now at a point in time,” said Royals general manager Dayton Moore, “where we have good young players—as good as any team in baseball. Now, we’ve got to do what we can to support them. Do we trade one of them? I don’t know.”

Trading Lester for Myers would have major implications on the 2013 Red Sox and well into the future as well. It would most certainly be tough to part ways with Lester, who has pitched so well—outside of 2012—over the course of his seven-year career in Boston.

Would Boston be a better team with Myers, though?

Here’s why Cherington should pull the trigger and land one of the best prospects in baseball.

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