Kuzul

Leading up to the 2013 season, I’m going to write player profiles about key members of the Detroit Tigers. This is the fourth installment, featuring setup man Joaquin Benoit.

2012 Season: 73 G, 71 IP, 5-3, 3.68 ERA, 83 K, 22 BB

While Detroit Tigers fans are fixated on whether Bruce Rondon can handle the closer role, I strongly believe that the biggest worry at the back-end of the bullpen will be setup man, Joaquin Benoit.

In 2012, the Tigers’ bullpen was ranked 10th out of 14 AL teams with an ERA of 3.79. Yet that statistic does not accurately describe how worrisome the bullpen was—when you look at the Tigers’ ERA from the eighth inning on, it was the worst in the AL with an ERA of 4.07. 

While most fans will blame last season’s closer, Jose Valverde, he still converted 35 out of 40 save chances, and didn’t implode until the playoffs. Valverde largely overshadowed Benoit, which helped Benoit escape fan criticism.

Benoit, 35, had an ERA of 3.68 to go along with 30 holds. This may sound great on the surface, but beneath the surface, some troubling statistics existed. Benoit’s ratio of HR allowed per nine innings was 1.8, which increased from .07 in 2011. Opposing batters also had a .432 slugging percentage against him, which was the highest of his career as a reliever.

The setup man’s main responsibility is to help bridge the gap from the starters to the closer, but Benoit had four blown saves in 2012 and didn’t help to shorten the games. Batters had an extra base hit percentage of 8.0 percent, which was up from his 3.7 percent in 2011. This put added pressure on the defense and Valverde, which could have been avoided.

The other main concern that the Tigers should have is that Benoit pitched 71 innings in the 2012 regular season—10 innings more than the year before. Benoit, who had torn rotator cuff surgery in 2009, needs to have his innings monitored.

Tigers manager Jim Leyland spoke on Jan. 26 about Benoit in response to a question about the closer situation, according to Tom Gage at the Detroit News, “Joaquin Benoit physically, I don’t think he can do it. With all due respect to Benoit, he doesn’t bounce back.”

That quote is telling in the fact that Leyland admits the Tigers need to handle Benoit carefully.

While I don’t believe Benoit should be the setup man, he could be more effective in middle relief. If he isn’t counted on as setup man, then his innings could fall into the 50s, which I believe would be a perfect range for him.

One of the areas in which Benoit has worked hard to improve is his strikeouts, which showed with 10.65 K/9 in 2012. Even though that number is impressive, it causes him to average 17.0 pitches per inning. If Benoit could cut down on that total by trusting his defense more, then his workload wouldn’t be as big of an issue.

I believe the 2013 season will be Benoit’s last year with the Tigers, since he’s a free agent after the year. For all of his negatives, he still has had success with the Tigers and has been able to stay injury-free. At 35 years old, I can’t see Benoit changing his pitching style, but hopefully he gets back his form from 2011.

2013 Prediction: 55 G, 52 IP, 1-1, 3.35 ERA, 60 K, 18 BB  

*Stats from ESPN.com, baseball-reference.com and MLB.com

First Profile: Catcher Alex Avila

Second Profile: Second Baseman Omar Infante

Third Profile: Center fielder Austin Jackson

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Justin Verlander is one of the top pitchers in baseball, and the Detroit Tigers have to ensure that he spends his whole career in a Tigers uniform.

It will be easier said than done, and how the Tigers and Verlander approach an extension will be the tough part. Since the end of last season, I have believed that the Tigers should have made signing Verlander to an extension their first offseason move, but unfortunately that wasn’t the case.

According to James Schmehl at Mlive.com, Verlander reiterated his love for Detroit and mentioned spending his whole career as a Tiger:

I’ve made it no secret that I love Detroit. I grew up in front of these fans. I feel like I’ve been a big part of this city and this city has become a big part of me. So, obviously, I’d love to play my career here.

When asked about Verlander being a Tiger back in October, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, “For sure. We’d like to have him be a Detroit Tiger for his career.”

So with both Verlander and Dombrowski on the same page about Verlander staying in Detroit, you might think that an extension would happen quickly—particularly early in the offseason—but clearly that was not the case.

With baseball contracts going sky-high for starting pitchers with even less talent than Verlander, the Tigers would have little chance of re-signing him if he ever hit the free-agent market. That is why with Verlander two seasons away from free agency, this would have been the perfect time to come to an agreement.

Since the end of last season, a few factors have made signing him a lot more expensive and difficult.

The first factor was watching Zack Greinke sign a six-year, $147 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Greinke is not as good as Verlander, so Verlander might figure that he deserves to get $200 million from the Tigers. 

According to Schmehl, when asked about becoming the first $200 million pitcher, Verlander said:

You know me and how competitive I am with every aspect of everything. I’m my own individual. I don’t look at anybody else and say he did this or that. It’s what I’m comfortable with when it comes to something like that.

If I were the GM of the Tigers, I would start to get worried about Verlander’s initial asking price.

As Schmehl mentioned in his article, the next factor is the new TV deals that are coming up. It’s crazy how the Dodgers are going to get between $7 and $8 billion for a 20-year deal.

I predict this TV deal will set off a war between teams trying to one-up each other. With this found money, teams can distribute the cash to free agents, which will hurt the teams that are locked into older TV deals.

According to Forbes, the Tigers current TV deal that was signed with Fox SportsNet Detroit in 2008 is for 10 years and $400 million. At the time, it was one of the more lucrative TV deals in baseball, but in a few short years it’s already been eclipsed by 10 times the amount. 

The Dodgers getting up to $400 million a year, which is the value of the Tigers’ whole TV deal, shows how much more creative the Tigers front office will need to be in the future to keep their star players.

The bottom line is that the Tigers will struggle to compete with the teams in the larger markets for free agents. While Verlander may want to stay in Detroit, money still talks, and other teams have an excess of it.

Another factor that the Tigers need to take into account is the eventual change in the quality of Verlander’s stuff when he loses some velocity on his fastball, which is inevitable. Verlander has been a remarkably durable workhorse with an easy throwing motion.

Still, the question remains: Will Verlander overcompensate when he loses his velocity and change his mechanics? 

The Tigers aren’t like the New York Yankees, which can absorb bad contracts. They need to make sure each player performs to the level that he is paid.

Will Verlander be worth around $25 million per year when he is 36 or 37 years old? That is what the Tigers are potentially looking at.

The Tigers are already stretched thin as a Midwest team, and who knows how much longer they’ll be able to maintain their payroll at the current level. If Verlander gets injured or isn’t successful, then the Tigers may not be able to afford young players or unload his contract.

I know this sounds negative, but I’m just trying to remain realistic for the future.

The last and most important factor that makes signing Verlander more difficult is that pitcher Anibal Sanchez re-signed with the Tigers for five years, $80 million.

While Sanchez is a good pitcher, he is still the Tigers’ No. 4 pitcher in the starting rotation. I can’t see why Verlander would accept any “hometown discount,” especially when the Tigers have been spending so much money on other players.

With other starting pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez signing extensions, I would rather have Verlander as the benchmark contract than those two.

While I think Verlander wants to stay in Detroit, he needs to look in the mirror and ask himself what he is willing to sacrifice to make it a reality so he can help himself as well as the Tigers.

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Loyal.

Humble.

Those are the first two things I thought of when I heard about Stan Musial‘s passing this evening. Being from the Midwest, I respected his relationship with the Cardinals organization and how popular of a team he made the Cardinals, even though they weren’t flashy or in a large market.

Musial’s strength was hitting, where he was a seven-time National League batting champion and led the Cardinals to three World Series titles. Musial played all of his 22 seasons in St. Louis and continued to have a close relationship with the team after his career was over—including a stint as GM when the Cardinals won another World Series in 1967.

Musial was always appreciated by Cardinals fans but I don’t think the modern fans truly understood how special he was until their most recent superstar, Albert Pujols, left for a larger market and more money. Players as loyal as Musial are a rare breed.  While most tributes over the next few days will be focusing on what a great player Musial was, I believe what made him so special was the type of person he was.

Fans from St. Louis have talked about how revered Musial was and that he was what an athlete should be. Musial always acted in a way that showed he was grateful for the opportunity to play baseball. Unfortunately more often than not, there are athletes who expect people to cater to their every need. I personally have encountered some of these athletes and it’s sad that they don’t realize how lucky they truly are.

Musial realized that.  He stood for a time that was great for baseball and was scandal-free. As more time passes, fans will start to forget about the players of the past and what a mark they left on baseball. Musial owned several records when he retired but I believe that he only cared about contributing to the Cardinals success.

Baseball lost a giant of a man today who represented all the good things about playing baseball and understood the responsibility of being a star athlete.

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The Detroit Tigers have quietly hired baserunning consultant Jeff Cox to assist the Tigers on running the bases, attempting to give them an edge on their opponents.

As Jim Leyland explained to Jason Beck of MLB.com, this move will help the faster players on the team:

He’s going to work with Jackson and some of the guys that have the potential to steal bases, [Andy] Dirks, guys like that. Really, Jackson’s the primary guy, obviously. We want him to get a little better at that. That’s always been one of [Cox’s] strong suits.

Beck then mentions that “It doesn’t forbode any change on the Tigers’ coaching staff, but it seemingly signifies an emphasis on baserunning for this club going forward. Leyland has mentioned several times over the years that he’d like his club to improve on the basepaths, get smarter and more aggressive if not actually faster.”

While Cox will mostly be working with the team during spring training and a handful of games throughout the season, I am completely on board with the approach the Tigers are taking here. 

The Tigers’ middle of the lineup isn’t the quickest, but it will be important for the quicker players at the top of the lineup and at the bottom of the lineup to put pressure on the opposing pitchers. If the players learn how to take an extra lead-off step on the basepaths, it could lead to more runs, which could be the difference between a win or a loss.

The Tigers were ranked as the worst team in steal attempts last year, so Cox has a lot of work to do. But he will give players a boost of confidence in their baserunning knowledge.

While major league teams have coaches that teach baserunning along with their other duties (first-base coach or third-base coach), I wonder, as the game is constantly changing, if teams will start having a dedicated member of their coaching staff who only focuses on baserunning.

Teams could have the first-base coach and third-base coach work strictly with the players on defense while the baserunning coach could help to analyze the opposing pitchers’ pickoff throws on video and go over the players’ running techniques.

Regardless of whether this is what baseball will become, the Tigers are taking a huge step in the right direction. This type of move won’t be obvious to an untrained eye, but it will pay dividends throughout the season.

The Tigers’ front office is giving the players every tool to succeed. So if Cox is successful, maybe next offseason, we’ll be discussing Cox’s role as a full-time coach preparing for the 2014 season.

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Over the past few weeks, Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Rick Porcello has become one of the two hottest trade candidates in MLB (the other being Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton). It appears that half of major league baseball is interested in him and rightfully so.

As I have stated many times before, the Tigers would be making a huge mistake trading a 24-year-old starting pitcher who hasn’t even hit his prime. Porcello could fill most team’s No. 4 or No. 5 pitching slot now with a chance to develop into a No. 2 pitcher if he can improve his secondary pitches, especially his slider.

Jon Paul Morosi from Fox Sports reported that the Baltimore Orioles wouldn’t trade Tigers trade target, shortstop J.J. Hardy, but they would consider trading their closer Jim Johnson.

The Baltimore Orioles aren’t interested in trading shortstop J.J. Hardy to Detroit for starter Rick Porcello.

They may be more willing to trade closer Jim Johnson.

Morosi goes on to detail all the reasons why the trade would work for Baltimore: strong infield defense, Porcello would be under team control longer, and cheap closer options on the free agent market.

All the reasons why it works for Baltimore are why this trade would be horrible from the Tigers point of view.

Sure Johnson, 29, had a good season last year collecting 51 saves to lead MLB but he only had 41 strikeouts and a 2.73 K/BB ratio. It is troubling that Johnson’s K/BB ratio has decreased over the past few years, which would put added stress on the Tigers defense since he’s not a strikeout pitcher.

Johnson could rely on the Orioles defense but may not be so lucky in Detroit.

I believe that a starting pitcher is a lot more valuable than a closer, and chances are Johnson won’t have the same success he had in 2012. With low-risk options like Brian Wilson on the market, I don’t know why the Tigers would trade Porcello for a closer who could have equal to lesser success. There are only a few reliable closers who are successful year after year that I would consider trading for, and Johnson is not in that category.

In my eyes, I see Jim Johnson as last year’s Jose Valverde. Great success the year before but not as lucky the following year. If the Tigers had traded Valverde before the 2012 season there would have been several teams interested in him, but this offseason he’s still looking for a team.

Also troubling to me is that in five games in the playoffs against the New York Yankees, Johnson had one loss, a blown save and a 8.44 ERA.  For a team like the Tigers that have World Series aspirations, this could make for a disaster in a repeat of last year’s closer by committee in the playoffs.

I’m coming to terms with the fact that Porcello will more than likely be traded before the season begins. But it would be an even bigger mistake if the Tigers trade him for only a closer who hasn’t proven to be elite.

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A report surfaced this morning out of Baltimore saying that the Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs and Baltimore Orioles had discussions on a possible three-way trade with pitcher Rick Porcello and shortstop J.J. Hardy being part of the deal.

Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reported:

“I heard last night that the Tigers and Cubs are discussing a potential trade involving pitcher Rick Porcello, who also interests the Orioles. Now here’s the rumored kicker: The Tigers are trying to get the Orioles involved because they want shortstop J.J. Hardy, and they don’t feel as though the Cubs have the necessary components to make it a two-team trade.”

This makes sense from a Cubs standpoint since they lost out on their main target—pitcher Anibal Sanchez—earlier this offseason when he elected to re-sign with the Tigers. The Cubs then went out and signed Edwin Jackson to a four-year deal.

While Jackson is considered a solid pitcher and a workhorse, Porcello is younger at 24-years-old and he has the potential to develop into a top two or three pitcher in a rotation. No one knows what the Cubs would be giving up, but their role in this trade is perplexing.
Kubatko also says he can’t see the Orioles trading Hardy unless they get a great offer:

“I still don’t think the Orioles are willing to part with Hardy unless they’re absolutely overwhelmed by an offer. They love the left side of their infield. They’re not looking to shift Manny Machadoto shortstop in 2013. Also, since the Orioles have discussed Porcello, why would they need the Cubs to get involved? Just deal directly.”

Jon Morosi from Fox Sports also mentioned the Orioles’ interest in December:

Sources: #Tigers have spoken with multiple teams about Rick Porcello. #Orioles and #Mariners among those involved. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 20, 2012

All of this suggests that the Tigers and Orioles each have a known need so why are the Cubs involved? It could part of a bigger deal that would include pitcher Matt Garza or outfielder Alfonso Soriano. If Soriano was involved then the Cubs would need to eat the majority of his $13 million salary this season.

From a Tigers perspective, Hardy would be an upgrade over Jhonny Peralta. Hardy, who is signed through the 2014 season, is great defensively and can also provide decent power. His strikeouts are on the high side but the Tigers would be able to live with it since he more than likely will be able to hit above .275.

On another note, the Tigers trading Porcello is a big mistake. He can still mature and find a reliable third pitch, and young starting pitchers capable of delivering 10-14 wins per season are tough to find. That being said, the Tigers are in win-now mode and acquiring Hardy would make them a better team.

Who knows if anything will come of these talks, but January just got a lot more interesting for the Tigers, Cubs and Orioles.

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The Detroit Tigers need to make a strong effort in attempting to sign closer Brian Wilson who is coming off Tommy John surgery but yet expected to be healthy by Opening Day according to Tim Brown at Yahoo! Sports.

Source: Brian Wilson has been told by surgeon James Andrews that he will be cleared for spring training and ready by opening day.

— Tim Brown (@TBrownYahoo) December 6, 2012

Scott Miller at CBS Sports mentioned last night on Twitter that Wilson is receiving lots of interest around baseball but didn’t specify which five teams he’s narrowed his list down to.

Lots of interest in Brian Wilson, source says. He’s still not close to signing but has narrowed list from 9 or 10 teams to 5 or so

— Scott Miller (@ScottMCBS) December 28, 2012

Hopefully the Tigers are on that list.

Wilson, who according to Henry Shulman from the SF Chronicle was upset at being released from the San Francisco Giants, would provide a low risk/high reward potential with the Tigers in a “win-now” mode.

Yes, I’m told Wilson feels disrespected by #sfgiants, tho one person who knows him said he’s “pouting” and could change mind about return.

— Henry Schulman (@hankschulman) December 1, 2012

If Wilson wants a strong team with an opportunity to win and anchor the bullpen, then Detroit is the right place for him. He can be on a winning team with a strong lineup and great starting pitching that will give him the opportunities to earn saves.

On the Tigers side there are absolutely no negatives in signing Wilson and giving him an opportunity to win the closer role. He’d come cheaper than other candidates in terms of dollars and length of contract, not cost the team a draft pick like Rafael Soriano would, and has proven himself in high pressure situations.

The Tigers could either sign Wilson for a one-year deal and give him the opportunity to re-establish himself or offer him a two-year deal with the second being a club option at a much higher salary (which I’d prefer). This way, if Bruce Rondon does develop and prove he can handle the closer job then the Tigers and Wilson could part ways after the season, both having benefited from their short-term marriage.

Wilson, who has already gone through two Tommy John surgeries, is a great teammate and would fit right into the Tigers clubhouse.

Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland are known for their honesty with players so Wilson would sign knowing that there could be a competition in spring training with Rondon and that he could be a setup man.

Based on the stories I’ve read over the years, I don’t believe Wilson would have a problem with Rondon and would help mentor the young reliever knowing full well his time in Detroit could be cut short by Rondon. Plus, if Wilson loses the closer role competition and the Tigers find out once the season starts that Rondon is too young for the role, then they have an experienced second option.

Wilson would also embrace the city of Detroit; the fans would love his quirky nature and hardworking mentality.

There is too much upside for both parties not to make a deal work, and the Tigers definitely offer Wilson the best chance to show the Giants what a bad mistake it was to release him.

I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments section if you think Brian Wilson and the Tigers are a good match.

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