Kuzul

In the Atlanta Braves recent win over the Houston Astros, longtime third baseman Chipper Jones tore his left ACL and will need season-ending surgery to repair it.

Right off the bat, this leaves the Braves (and Jones) with many questions. While the long term question facing Jones may be about retirement (which I go into more detail about here), the short term focus for Atlanta is on finding a capable replacement for Chipper.

With the trade deadline already passed, I’m not sure that the Braves would be able to make a deal for anyone better than the players currently on their bench, and they would be wise to simply look within the organization.

Omar Infante/Brooks Conrad

The obvious solution to Chipper’s injury is to replace him with some combination of Infante and Conrad. For the next week, this would be primarily Conrad (as Infante has been filling in for the injured Martin Prado). In the long run, the two would share time, while Infante would also continue to back up other positions for Atlanta.

The drawback to this solution is that the Braves lose some of the talent off of their bench, which may be the best in the league. Infante is an All-Star utility player who is invaluable to the Braves, and nobody else on the Braves roster would be able to back up so many positions.

Conrad has also been a huge boost to the bench, hitting multiple grand slams and giving the bench a power bat that it has lacked in recent years.

Wes Timmons

Half of you might be saying, “Who?” right now.

Surprisingly, Timmons has been in the organization longer than most of the guys currently on the Atlanta roster. Now in his ninth professional season (all within Atlanta’s minor league system), Timmons has proved himself a capable hitter and on-base machine in AAA.

Thus far in 2010, Timmons has compiled a .289/.397/.402 line in Gwinnett. Although he has little power (the same can be said about Infante), Wes has a great career minor league on-base percentage (.382), something that can’t be said about Conrad or Infante.

Over the past two seasons in AAA, Timmons has proved he deserves a shot at the major league level, and the injury to Chipper might finally give him a chance.

Glaus to Third, Freeman to First

I’ll admit, this idea may be somewhat of a stretch. But first baseman Troy Glaus has spent the majority of his career playing third base, and he might be able to switch back to third and allow the Braves to call up Freddie Freeman.

While many could (and will) make the case that Freeman deserves to be starting over Glaus, it would appear that Bobby Cox will continue to be loyal to Glaus, and this may be the only way to get the Braves top hitting prospect to the majors.

In 2010, Freeman has a .305/.367/.506 line in AAA (and he is only 20 right now) and was ranked 20th in Baseball America’s mid-season prospect list.

What Will Happen

If I had to guess, I would say the Braves will simply let Infante and Conrad split time at third base for the remainder of the season, which probably will be the best for the Braves.

I’m hoping that Wes Timmons will get called up to Atlanta, although the Braves will likely just keep Diory Hernandez on the roster after Martin Prado returns from his injury.

While I like the third option because it gets Freeman to the majors (and the Braves could use a power bat at this point) I don’t really like the thought of putting Glaus at third base. Ideally, Glaus would be benched and Freeman could start at first, but that doesn’t seem to be an option that Braves management wants to pursue.

While nobody will be able to replace the leadership that Chipper had in the clubhouse, Infante and Conrad are capable backups (heck, Infante was an All-Star and Chipper wasn’t) and the Braves would be wise to use this opportunity to give them more playing time.

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In 2008, it was Jair Jurrjens. In 2009, it was Tommy Hanson. Now 2010 is here and the Braves are in need of a rookie pitcher to fill a void.

With Kris Medlen injured and Kenshin Kawakami trying to stretch himself out after rotting away in the bullpen for the past month, the Atlanta Braves will turn to highly touted prospect Mike Minor to start game one of their series with the Houston Astros.

Their first round draft pick just a year ago, Minor has progressed extremely rapidly (which was expected) and will be the fourth player from his draft class (following Mike Leake, Stephen Strasburg, and Drew Storen) to reach the majors.

But even though he is just a year into his professional career, Minor has already given plenty of indication that he will exceed the expectations that were originally placed on him.

When the Braves originally picked him out of Vanderbilt, they thought they were getting a “safe” college arm that would rapidly rise through the organization and quickly be ready to help out at the Major League level. Some even criticized the pick, as the Braves used the seventh overall selection on a player who projected to be a reliable, but unspectacular, third starter who never would dominate or strike many batters out.

Although Minor did dominate in his first taste of professional baseball, he didn’t change many people’s opinions of him. After all he had only pitched 14 innings in 2009. Although he allowed just a single run and struck out 17 batters (while walking none), it was expected for the strikeouts to decline when Minor faced stiffer competition.

2010 has turned into a coming out party for Minor. Starting at AA Mississippi, Minor quickly showed that he might have a higher ceiling than originally expected. Minor added a couple ticks to his fastball, and went from being a finesse pitcher to a dominant strikeout artist seemingly overnight.

Although his initial numbers (2-6, 4.03 ERA) at Mississippi don’t show anything special, you notice something else when you look deeper. Minor struck out an incredible 109 batters in just 87 innings and posted an FIP of just 2.78.

Although Minor’s star was quickly rising, it wasn’t until he reached AAA that everyone saw the dominant pitcher he could become. In 33.1 innings there, he has allowed just seven earned runs (good for a 1.89 ERA) and continued to strike out more than a batter per inning.

On the year as a whole, Minor has struck out 10.9 batters per inning and posted an FIP of 2.64. He has actually posted a better strikeout rate and FIP than Tommy Hanson, who finished third in Rookie of the Year voting despite being a mid-season call-up last year.

In just a year, Minor has quickly become a stud prospect in a Braves system loaded with young pitching talent (be on the lookout for Julio Teheran next summer). He made Baseball America’s mid-season top 50, and will look to be the next young Braves pitcher (following Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson) to burst onto the scene with a terrific rookie season. 

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On Friday, August 6, the Atlanta Braves will retire number 47, the number that Tom Glavine wore while pitching the majority of his career in Atlanta.

Drafted in the second round back in 1984, Glavine decided passed up a chance at a hockey career (he was a fourth-round pick in the NHL’s draft) to pitch for the Atlanta Braves.

After pitching well in AAA for the majority of the 1987 season, Glavine was called up to Atlanta and made his MLB debut on August 17 . In his first start, he allowed six runs in just 3.2 innings. Overall, his 1987 major league campaign was forgettable.

1988 was better (ERA-wise) but Glavine led the league in losses. By 1989, Glavine started to figure things out, going 14-8 with a 3.68 ERA.

After a solid (but unspectacular) 1990 season, Glavine (and the Braves) started creating their legacy in 1991.

The 1991 edition of the Atlanta Braves went from worst to first, in large part thanks to Tom Glavine. With a league leading 20 wins and a sparkling 2.55 ERA, Glavine won his first Cy Young award and led the league in ERA+. Although the Braves eventually lost in the World Series, their dynasty had started.

Glavine picked up where he left off in 1992, winning 20 games for the second year in a row, and finishing second in Cy Young voting.

The Braves dynasty started a new era in 1993. The Braves signed free agent Greg Maddux, who, along with Glavine and John Smoltz, became the “Big Three” in Atlanta. Although Maddux won the 1993 Cy Young, Glavine led the team in wins with 22.

To say the least, 1995 was a special year for Glavine and the Braves. After the strike-shortened 1994 season, the Braves won the NL East for the third straight year, and eventually made it back to the World Series.

With the Braves leading the series 3-2, Glavine got the ball in game six. Glavine was at his finest, shutting down the Cleveland lineup for eight innings. Although the Braves managed to push just one run across, Glavine made it stand up. He allowed just one hit while striking out eight before giving way to Mark Wohlers.

When Wohlers recorded the final out, the Braves were World Series Champions and Glavine was named Series MVP.  Although Glavine went on to pitch seven more seasons for the Braves before departing to the Mets, the World Series win was his signature moment with the Braves.

In 2007, Glavine won his 300th game while with the Mets, essentially guaranteeing himself a spot in Cooperstown.

Glavine returned to Atlanta for the 2008 (and 2009) season, but was a shade of his former self, and retired from baseball after the Braves released him.

Glavine finished his career with 305 wins and a 3.54 ERA. He won 20 or more games five different times. Glavine appeared on 10 All-Star teams, and won two Cy Young Awards and four Silver Sluggers.

But Glavine’s legacy to the Braves goes deeper than the jaw-dropping numbers. He was a member of possibly the greatest pitching three-some of all time. He, along with Maddux and Smoltz defined a Braves team that won an unprecedented 14 consecutive division titles.

Just about every Braves home game, it seems that the television cameras found the picture of Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz. To say the least, the three are all Atlanta icons. Three aces on one team, a feat which may never again be accomplished.

Glavine even wrote a book about his time with the Braves (and their World Series win): None but the Braves: A Pitcher, A Team, A Champion.

But Glavine has something that neither Smoltz nor Maddux have: a World Series MVP. Glavine’s masterpiece was probably the most memorable game that the Braves have played during their time in Atlanta.

Glavine was part of an iconic pitching staff, and will be inducted into the Braves Hall-of-Fame on Friday. Without a doubt, this will just be practice for Glavine’s eventual call to Cooperstown.

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Following the 2008 season, Braves GM Frank Wren made it clear that he was looking to acquire at least two starting pitchers to bolster the rotation and lead the Braves back into the playoffs.

While Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami eventually made their way to Atlanta, the Braves wanted an ace, and targeted a couple big name pitchers.

It’s tough to find anyone who would consider the Braves signing of Derek Lowe a success (or even mediocre, for that matter), but things actually could have gone worse for the Braves.

The two other big name pitchers the Braves looked into that season were Jake Peavy (who was already with the Padres) and free agent A.J. Burnett (who eventually signed with the Yankees).

Before we begin going into who has performed better, we can take a look at the contracts of all three players.

Lowe, as many Braves fans know, was given a four-year, $60 million deal, to become the staff ace. The contract was broken up evenly, so Lowe would earn $15 million in each year.

Burnett, whom the Braves targeted before Lowe, was signed for the Yankees for five years and $82.5 million. His contract was also broken up evenly, so he makes $1.5 million a year more than Lowe.

Peavy’s contract is a bit more complicated. He made just $11 million in 2009, and is making $15 million in 2010. Over the next two seasons, he will make $33 million, meaning his four year total ($59 million) would make him the cheapest of all three options. Peavy also has a club option of $22 million in 2013.

One thing that is important to note about Peavy is that he would have cost more than just the money, as the Braves would have had to give up prospects (the Padres wouldn’t settle for any package that didn’t include Tommy Hanson) which essentially makes him cost more than Lowe.

But it’s not surprising that Lowe costs the least; after all, he is easily considered to be worse than the former Cy Young winner Peavy and the electric Burnett.

But you can make a case that Lowe has been better than Peavy or Burnett in the first two years of his contract.

Lowe vs. Peavy

When looking at Lowe vs. Peavy, the stats clearly favor Peavy (although Lowe actually has a better ERA so far in 2010, Peavy was much better, ERA-wise, in 2009).

Despite making fewer starts, Peavy has a WAR of 4.4 over 1.5 seasons compared to Lowe’s 4.2. The reason the numbers are so close is that Peavy has spent a significant amount of time on the DL (where he will be spending the rest of this season).

By time 2010 closes, Lowe will likely have a higher WAR than Peavy, although Peavy was more dominant when on the hill.

This doesn’t make Lowe better than Peavy, but considering Peavy’s major durability issues, I wouldn’t want to be on the hook for $33 million over the next two years.

Lowe vs. Burnett

Interestingly enough, Lowe has bested Burnett in both FIP and xFIP in 2009 and 2010. More importantly, Lowe seems to be on the upswing while Burnett is busy injuring himself in the dugout.

Lowe’s 4.39 ERA in 2010 is much better than Burnett’s (4.99) and both pitchers are a little higher than their FIP right now.

WAR wise, Lowe has won the battle 4.2 to 3.8 over the life of the contract, and these two are more comparable since they have made roughly the same number of starts.

The Derek Lowe signing could have gone a lot worse for the Braves.

If I had to rank the three pitchers, with nothing else included, I would take Peavy, Lowe, and then Burnett.

When financial aspects become involved, Lowe is clearly a better option than Burnett so far, and the Braves will get his contract off the books sooner than the Yankees can.

With money considered, I would take Peavy over Lowe. With the Braves’ great pitching depth, they could afford a guy like Peavy who could dominate when healthy even if that was only part of the season.

But when you throw in the fact that the Braves would have had to give up a large package of prospects (again, likely  including Tommy Hanson), I think that the Lowe move was the best of any possible deals the Braves could have made prior to the 2009 season.

As the season progresses, I’m sure everyone will be frustrated to watch our $15 million pitcher muddle in mediocrity; but it’s important to know that had the Braves acquired Peavy or signed Burnett (especially if the Braves had signed Burnett) things likely would be even worse.

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The last time the National League won an All-Star game was in 1996.

Back then, the Braves were represented by John Smoltz (who got the win), Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Mark Wohlers, Fred McGriff, and Chipper Jones.

The Braves will again be represented by a handful of players this year. Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, Tim Hudson, and Brian McCann were all expected (at least somewhat) by fans.

Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel will manage the NL All-Star team this year, and by all indications he is completely serious about winning. Why do I say that? He chose Omar Infante.

Many people will question Manuel’s selection of Omar Infante.

I don’t agree with it. Infante isn’t an “All-Star.” He would rarely start on his own team if not for injuries. No one will argue that Infante is one of the best players in the National League, and he clearly isn’t in the same league as Joey Votto or Ryan Zimmerman.

That being said, by choosing Infante, Manuel is showing us that he wants to win this game. Infante may not truly be an All-Star, but he is probably the best utility player in the league, and every team needs a good utility player.

Infante’s stat line this year is .309/1/22 in 177 plate appearances. While they are solid numbers, and Infante could start on most teams, they still aren’t worthy of an All-Star selection.

But Infante will bring something to the All-Star game that isn’t usually there. He can play just about any position and is used to coming off the bench. While players like Votto and Zimmerman are great, they don’t bring the same thing to the team as Infante.

I’m not saying that the selection of Infante is correct, but maybe, just maybe, his experience coming off the bench will finally give the NL the advantage it needs. While Manuel will be criticized for not picking the best players, he may well have made his overall team better by picking a player who fits better into his role.

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Through his first 13 starts in 2010, the Atlanta Braves have given pitcher Kenshin Kawakami pitiful run support.

With the Braves scoring just 3.13 runs in KK’s outings, it’s hardly a surprise that he is 0-9. Bad luck combined with mediocre pitching can do that to you.

Last year, the lack of run support given to Mets ace Johan Santana was a hot topic in baseball. I wrote an article (spurred by some moronic comments from Steve Phillips) and concluded that Johan’s lack of run support was mostly due to the opposing pitcher (and not the vibe that Santana gave off on Mets hitters).

Kawakami earned the nickname “Dragon Slayer” last year, as he faced opposing teams aces a fair amount of the time despite pitching out of the back of the rotation.

With that in mind, I think it is worth taking a look at his 2010 opponents to see why the Braves fail to score when he is on the mound.

In his first four starts (in which KK went 0-4) he faced Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jimenez (who threw a no-hitter that night), Hisanori Takahashi, and Jaime Garcia.

Of those four pitchers, Takahashi has the worst ERA at 3.13. A 3.13 ERA could make someone an ace (or at least a quality number one starter).

In May, the opponents got a little easier for KK. He lost to Livan Hernandez (2.94 ERA, which makes him a top pitcher this year even if we all know he isn’t), Cole Hamels (the first non-ace Kawakami faced, although Hamels is a solid second starter), and Anibal Sanchez (3.22 ERA, good for the top spot on most teams).

His three no decisions in May came against the likes of Ian Kennedy (3.57 ERA), Aaron Harang (5.44) and Paul Maholm (3.77). Harang is the only back of the rotation pitcher out of that bunch.

In his first three June starts, Kenshin, a number five starter himself, faced Clayton Kershaw (2.96), Ian Kennedy (again), and David Price (2.31).

So all in all, through his first 13 starts of 2010, Kawakami faced exactly one pitcher (Aaron Harang) with an ERA over 3.80. While KK is pitching out of the fifth rotation spot, he clearly isn’t facing other teams’ worst starters.

The great ERAs show the guys Kawakami has faced this year are shutting down just about everyone, not just the Braves. While the lack of run support KK gets is disturbingly low, it’s not all that unexpected when you see who he is pitching against.

In short, the small run support Kenshin Kawakami is getting isn’t just bad luck, but bad matchups as well.

All in all, Kawakami’s 0-9 record might be a blessing in disguise for the Braves. Instead of having the entire rotation line up, they likely have a better pitcher four out of every five times out.

The times they are facing another teams’ ace, KK takes the loss (which is the likely outcome for the Braves anyway) and the Braves have a better chance to win 80% of the time.

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Coming into the 2010 season, the Braves had two players who hoped to enter the Comeback Player of the Year race.

Tim Hudson missed the majority of the 2009 season after Tommy John surgery, and many wondered whether the Braves would resign him, as doing so would mean trading either Derek Lowe or Javier Vazquez.

In his late-season appearances, Hudson convinced the Braves that he was worth re-signing, and the team eventually traded away Vazquez (after failing to trade Lowe) in order to stay within the budget.

Looking for a big, right-handed bat, the Braves turned to former slugger Troy Glaus, who also missed the majority of the 2009 season.

After battling through injuries, Glaus had a great 2008 before getting hurt again. Needing a first baseman to bridge the gap to Freddie Freeman, the Braves took a chance on Glaus and brought him in to be a much-needed power bat.

Thus far in the season, Hudson is among the NL leaders with a 2.43 ERA, and Glaus is tied for the NL lead with 46 RBI.

With stats like that, both Hudson and Glaus are in the race for Comeback Player of the Year, but which one will finish the year with the better season?

Tim Hudson:

2010 Stats: 6-2, 2.43 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 0.8 WAR, 85.1 IP, 36:30 K/BB

Underlying Stats: .235 BABIP, 83.3% strand rate, 4.35 FIP, 4.42 xFIP

ZIPS Rest of Season Projection: 5-4, 4.06 ERA in 14 starts

ZIPS Updated Full Season Projection: 11-6, 3.23 ERA

Troy Glaus

2010 Stats: .279/.375/.474 11 HR, 46 RBI, 0.9 WAR

Underlying Stats: .320 BABIP

ZIPS Rest of Season Projection: .260/.363/.449 11 HR, 45 RBI

ZIPS Updated Full Season Projection: .269/.369/.462 22 HR, 91 RBI

The underlying stats show that both players have been lucky so far this season, Hudson more so than Glaus.

As a sinkerball pitcher, Hudson is expected to have an ERA below his FIP, but not two full runs lower. Both his BABIP and strand rate have been extremely fortunate, and he hasn’t shown any ability to miss bats consistently.

Despite everything that has been said, if Hudson finished the season with a 3.23 ERA, he will have surpassed most of the expectations on him coming into the season.

What makes Glaus’ start so impressive is that he couldn’t do anything right in April. On the year, he has a somewhat fortunate BABIP, but his batting average shouldn’t sink too much over the course of the season.

What has stood out the most for Glaus is the number of RBI he has put up. With Martin Prado and Jason Heyward both getting on base at the top of the lineup, he should continue to drive in runs, and might exceed the 91 RBI that ZIPS projects him to have.

Overall, I would have to say Hudson has the better chance of winning the award. Although he is likely to regress more, he has been far more outstanding in the early season.

If both players finished with their ZIPS updated projections, I would definitely choose Hudson.

Even if Glaus exceeds his projection in RBI (and maybe hit a couple more homers), I would still take Hudson with a 3.23 ERA.

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Although the MLB Draft is still going on (rounds 31-50 are tomorrow) I decided to get the draft recap done as players picked lower than 30^th rarely end up signing. If the Braves add anyone who I could see making an impact, I will be sure to add them to the list.

First, here is a quick breakdown of what the Braves drafted, going by their listing on MLB.com.

Pitchers: 12

Catchers: 3

Corner Infield: 4

Middle Infield: 7

Outfield: 5

The breakdown looks solid to me. The Braves have built up some young pitching depth in the minors, and needed to get some other positions filled first. Over the past two years, the Braves have drafted 15 and 17 players in the first 30 rounds, respectively.

Atlanta Braves First 10 Picks: 

Matthew Lipka, SS, McKinney HS, Texas, Comp A:

The Braves didn’t have a first round pick, but chose Lipka in the first compensation round (35^th overall). An excellent athlete, Lipka was an all-state wide receiver in high school, and has incredible speed. Known as a “toolsy” player, the pick is great for the Braves because they desperately needed some middle infield depth in their system. Scouts disagree on how his power will develop, and some think that he could eventually develop above-average power as he fills out. Lipka may eventually wind up at second base (or even centerfield), and could be a future leadoff hitter with his blazing speed.

Todd Cunningham, OF (3B), Jacksonville State, 2^nd Round:

The Braves continue to fill needs by taking another position player. Although Cunningham is listed as a centerfielder, he probably won’t stick there and will either move to left field or third base. Cunningham won the batting title in the prestigious Cape Cod Summer League last year, and is another guy with plus speed. He likely will only average power, but should hit for a high average at all levels.

Andrelton Simmons, SS (RHP), Western Oklahoma State, 2^nd Round:

Simmons is an amazing defensive shortstop, yet can also throw in the mid to upper 90s when pitching. The Braves took him as a pitcher (although he is listed on mlb.com as a shortstop), and he should be another guy with nasty stuff out of the bullpen. Simmons definitely has future closer potential, but I think I would have rather seen the Braves continue to look for position players early in the draft.

Joe Leonard, 3B, Pittsburgh, 3^rd Round:

The Braves take a great defensive third baseman in the third round. Aside from that, Leonard doesn’t have any tools that really stand out, although his power may develop more as he matures. Although he doesn’t have as high a ceiling as some other Braves picks, Leonard has the potential to be a major league regular, and will give the Braves needed depth at third base.

David Filak, RHP, Oneonta, 4^th Round:

The second pitcher taken by the Braves, Filak was actually ranked higher than his pick (134) by most people, so it looks like the Braves got a good value. Although he has had injury issues in the past, he profiles as a second starter, and has a nasty knuckle-curve. Keith Law had him ranked as a second round prospect, so the Braves got great value even though they already have a ton of young pitchers.

Phillip Gosselin, 2B, Virginia, 5^th Round:

Although he doesn’t have any plus tools, Gosselin has the intangibles that could make this a nice pick. Described as gritty, a gamer, and a guy with great instincts. He might eventually play outfield for the Braves, as that is where he spent a large part of his college career.

Joseph Terdoslavich, 3B, Cal State-Long Beach, 6^th Round:

The first player the Braves drafted that has plus power. A below average defender at third, he might switch to first (plus the Braves have drafted a couple potential third baseman ahead of him). His likely won’t hit for a great average, and the Braves might have reached a little with this pick.

Matthew Suschak, RHP, Toledo, 7^th Round:

With a plus fastball and two average secondary offerings, he will likely end up in the bullpen, although he did start some in college. The Braves got a good value with this pick, (around 75 slots after expected) so if they sign him this could end up being a great pick.

Kurt Flemming, OF, St. Christopher’s HS, VA, 8^th Round:

Another speedster who plays outfield, I this Braves may have reached a little on this pick. His dad works for the Braves organization, which should make him easier to sign. Only 5-11, Flemming is undersized, but a great athlete.

David Rohm, 1B, Fresno CC, 9^th Round:

I like this pick for the Braves. He can hit to the entire field, and likely will develop more power as he matures. He has above average speed, although he isn’t a burner like some guys above him on this list. While Rohm’s defense isn’t great, he could eventually make an impact assuming he develops as projected.

Others to Watch: 

Matthew Lewis, RHP, UC-Davis, 10^th Round – Most have him ranked ahead of Rohm, could eventually find a way into the Braves bullpen.

Brandon Drury, SS, Grants Pass HS, OR, 13^th Round – High school kid with a great baseball I.Q. I always like players like this when they are drafted after the marquee names are off the board.

Richie Tate, RHP, Arkansas, 14^th Round – Hard throwing pitcher who will need to work on his control to have an impact on the major league level.

Stefan Sabol, C, Aliso Niguel HS, CA, 17^th Round – Sabol is a high school catcher who has potential and is pretty athletic. If he can stay behind the plate he might end up being a great value for the Braves.

Zachary Alvord, 2B, Couth Forsyth HS, GA, 18^th Round – High power upside as a second baseman, Alvord isn’t great on defense but might be able to hit his way to the majors.

Overall Thoughts:

I’m pretty happy with the Braves draft so far. In the early rounds they did a great job of addressing their needs in the field while nabbing a couple of nice bullpen arms. Although he wasn’t technically part of this draft class, Edward Salcedo was essentially the Braves first round pick, so they got a lot of middle infield help.

Although they didn’t add much to the potential starting rotation, they have plenty of talent already in the organization (Teheran, Vizcaino, Delgado, Minor) and did a great job drafting more position players than they typically do. 

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At this point in the season, Jason Heyward, the Braves (and baseball’s) top prospect is tearing it up in Atlanta. But the Braves system still has a load of young talent, so here are my top 10 Atlanta Braves prospects as of right now.

Although the rankings are affected by performance thus far in 2010, I’m not going to make any huge drops based on performances thus far.

       1. Julio Teheran

Last year, Teheran split time between Danville and Rome, and wasn’t a dominant pitcher while playing in A-ball. This year, that changed. After toying with Sally League hitters in his first seven starts (1.14 ERA, 10.3 K/9) Julio earned a promotion to Myrtle Beach, and has continued to impress. In his first two starts, he has allowed just one run over 13 innings, while striking out 14. Just 19 years old, Teheran could crack the major league roster by September of 2011 if he continues to dominate hitters.

       2. Randall Delgado

Coming into the season, Delgado was seen as the third or fourth best pitching prospect in the Braves organization, but he has really impressed me so far in 2010. Pitching in Myrtle Beach (high-A) he has posted a 2.43 ERA over 10 starts. The reason he has risen on the prospect list is his improved control, which has led to a 5.67 K/BB ratio so far. Assuming he continues to strike batters out at a terrific 10.3 K/9 rate, Delgado should be pitching in AA by the end of the season, which means a September call-up in 2011 isn’t out of the question.

       3. Arodys Vizcaino

Acquired in the Javier Vazquez trade this winter, Vizcaino has impressed thus far in Rome (A). Although he struggled some to begin the year, he hasn’t allowed a run over his past three starts (spanning 23.2 innings) and has compiled a 2.73 ERA on the year. While his strikeout rate has dipped a bit (from 11.1 to 8.5 K/9) he has shown improved control (6.2 K/BB) and gives the Braves another young (19) arm with a bright future. Best case scenario, he is a September call-up in 2011, but I don’t see him in the majors until the middle of the 2012 campaign.

      4. Freddie Freeman

The guy whom most consider the Braves top prospect at this point is fourth on my list simply because of the dominating numbers put up by the Braves trio of young pitchers. Although he hasn’t been great in AAA thus far (.263/5/24) he is still only 20 years old and hit pretty well in limited spring training at-bats. Still developing as a power hitter, Freeman should continue to improve as the year progresses, and likely will be starting in Atlanta at some point during the 2011 season.

      5. Craig Kimbrel

Although Kimbrel just recently completed his first stint in the major leagues, I am including him on this list as he only pitched 3.1 innings in Atlanta. The Braves closer of the future, Kimbrel undoubtedly has some of the nastiest stuff in the organization. The strikeouts have always been there for Kimbrel, who has posted 28 of them in just 18 AAA innings this year, but control is keeping him from pitching full time in Atlanta. Although he has walked just seven batters in AAA, he allowed five free passes in his brief major league stint. It’s likely we will see Kimbrel in Atlanta again before the season is over, and with Billy Wagner retiring at the end of the year, Kimbrel could be the closer in 2011.

       6. Edward Salcedo

Although he is yet to play in a game, the Braves (and obviously myself) are high on the shortstop that the Braves signed this spring. He will be playing rookie ball the second half of this season, and is only 18 years old. It will be hard to get a read on him until he gets a taste of professional ball, but given that the Braves view him as a first round talent, I am high on the young shortstop.

       7. Mike Minor

It’s hard to figure out what to make of Minor, the Braves most recent first round pick.  Seen as a very developed pitcher who should reach the majors quickly, Minor wasn’t supposed to strike a ton of people out. But through 10 AA starts, Minor has posted 12.9 K/9, a number that nobody saw coming. His 4.20 ERA isn’t good, but isn’t terrible. Before giving up seven runs in his last start, Minor has allowed just two runs over his past 19 innings. If he can figure things out quickly and earn a promotion to AAA before mid-year, it’s possible he could pitch in Atlanta at some point during the 2010 season.

      8. Christian Bethancourt

The 19 year old catching prospect has struggled some this season in A-ball, but Bethancourt still has the tools to be the eventual successor to Brian McCann. Eventually, Bethancourt could develop into a top notch defensive catcher with an above-average bat. While his .234/2/13 line is rather unimpressive, Bethancourt is hitting .314 over his past nine games, and might be figuring out Sally League pitching. With McCann under contract for a couple years, he won’t break into the majors until September 2012 or early 2013.

      9. Robinson Lopez

Lopez is the first guy who wasn’t in the top 10 at the beginning of the season, and I had him in the 12-14 range. After an impressive stint in Rookie League last year (1.29 ERA) Lopez has been pretty darn good in Rome (2.63 ERA). Originally a reliever, his last three appearances have been starts, and he continues to excel (his ERA in those starts is 2.64, so about the same as it was as a reliever). With an impressive 10.0 K/9 and 3.00 K/BB, Lopez will be moving up a lot of Braves prospects lists as the year goes on. He is only 19 years old, and I would say his ETA in the majors is late 2012-mid 2013.

    10. Cory Rasmus

Although Rasmus is older (22) for the levels he has been playing at (A-ball this year). A former first round pick (in 2006) he obviously has potential, but has dealt with injuries over the past few years. This year he has spent time both starting and finished games in Rome, and has impressed in both cases (2.45 ERA as starter, 1.93 in relief). On the year, he has struck out a batter per inning, and should be moving up to Myrtle Beach soon if they can find room. I will set his ETA at 2012, hoping he can move through the system somewhat quickly because of his age.

All in all, the Braves still have some top flight prospects even after losing Jason Heyward. The system could use some impact hitters soon, as only three cracked my top 10. Adam Milligan and Cody Johnson both are interesting prospects, but I see major flaws in both of their games which could prevent them from making the majors.

Chris Masters also just missed out on this list. He has been dominant in Rome (1.56 ERA) but, like Rasmus, is old (22) for the league. In the end, I had to go with the former first round pick.

As the year progresses, this list will probably shift some (especially toward the bottom of the group), but the Braves should continue to have impact players (especially pitchers) getting called up over the next couple years. A potential 2013 rotation of Hanson, Jurrjens, Teheran, Delgado and Vizcaino could be flat out dominant.

Photo Credit: http://media.photobucket.com/image/julio%20teheran/dropoutproductions/TeheranJuliocopy.jpg?o=11

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As the month of May is drawing to a close, it’s hard to believe that coming into this month the Braves were in last place and just a game removed from a nine-game skid.

It almost feels like we are in a different season.

After a decent start to the month, the Braves caught fire—and have won five out of their last six series (the other series was a 1-1 split between the Braves and Mets).

As the Braves caught fire, the Phillies seemed to lose some of theirs, and the team which was heavily favored to return to the World Series holds a slim 1.5 game advantage over the Braves.

While a key series with the Phillies is on deck, the Braves first get a visit from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Just a week ago, the same two teams started a three game set, and the Braves won two.

After the series with the Pirates, the schedule gets much more difficult for the Braves, as they face the Phillies, Dodgers and Twins (as well as the struggling Diamondbacks) in the first half of June.

A series win over the Pirates would likely allow the Braves to play around .500 ball over that 13 game stretch and stay within striking distance of the Phillies.

Are Escobar and McCann Coming Around?

As good as the Braves have been recently, some of their players still have pretty bad stat lines. Among them are Yunel Escobar and Brian McCann, who typically are among the Braves most productive hitters.

After a terrible April, Brian McCann seems to be hitting like his old self again. In May, he hit .290 with three homeruns, and has raised his batting average 29 points along the way.

Although he is currently dealing with an arm injury, McCann is expected to be back in the lineup soon, and should continue to hit his way toward another Silver Slugger award.

Escobar hasn’t had the same success this month as McCann. He’s only played in about half the team’s games this month (due to an injury suffered the end of April) and has hit a meager .171 over that span.

But, Escobar is 4-6 over the past two games, and looks like he might finally be snapping out of his skid. A career .301 hitter coming into this year, he has nowhere to go but up as he is currently hitting .200.

Derek Lowe is Pitching Better (but still not worth the money)

It’s no secret that Derek Lowe has greatly underperformed since signing a huge free agent contract with the Braves.

In fact, you can probably count on one hand the number of people who expect him to return to his 2008 form (when he had a 3.24 ERA in his final year with the Dodgers).

But over his past three starts, Lowe has actually been solid, posting a 3.50 ERA over 18 innings of work.

While those numbers aren’t worth 15 million a year, I think that’s about as much as we can hope for from Lowe at this point.

Assuming that Jair Jurrjens can come back healthy and strong, the Braves would be in good position if Derek Lowe could just eat innings and keep his ERA around 4.00 for the rest of the year.

Upcoming Series: Atlanta Braves (25-22) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (20-28)

Derek Lowe (6-4, 5.30) vs. Zach Duke (3-4, 4.47)

Kris Medlen (1-1, 2.57) vs. Brian Burress (2-2, 5.40)

Kenshin Kawakami (0-7, 4.93) vs. Paul Maholm (3-4, 3.98)

The pitching matchups could have been better for the Braves, but I still think they will fare ok.

Zach Duke has been pitching great as of late (and beat Derek Lowe in his last start) so I think the Pirates will take the first game.

However, I think the Braves will win the last two games of the set, with Kenshin Kawakami finally getting his first win on Sunday.

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