Kuzul

Coming into the 2009 season, the Atlanta Braves’ Tommy Hanson was one of the most hyped prospects in baseball, even ranked by some above Jason Heyward.

Despite being seemingly ready for the major leagues, the Braves opted to give Hanson a taste of AAA, and left Jo-Jo Reyes in the rotation.

Instead of getting a full year of Hanson’s 2.89 ERA and 8.18 K/9, the Braves were treated to five starts of 7.00 ERA from Jo-Jo Reyes (Kris Medlen also made a couple starts, not faring much better than Reyes).

While the Braves finished six games out of the wild card race, they were in it to the end (when they lost their last six games of the year). With Hanson in the rotation all year, things could have turned out differently.

Going into 2010, the Braves faced a similar choice with Jason Heyward, who many named the top prospect in all of baseball.

Whether it was the realization of a past mistake, the need to win in Bobby Cox’s final year, to fill the stands more or because Heyward was simply the best option, the Braves decided that baseball’s hottest commodity could start the year in the MLB.

So far, it’s safe to say that Heyward has lived up to the hype. He’s got a .290/9/35 line and already has a couple walk-off hits in the bag. His on-base percentage, which stands at .414, is among the league leaders, and Heyward has shown an incredible eye at the plate.

Through 42 games, Heyward has a WAR (wins above replacement) of 1.6. This means with a replacement level player instead of Heyward, the Braves would have 1.6 less wins on the season.

But I think that it would actually be a larger difference. The two players that would have been getting more play time without Heyward around, Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera, have a combined WAR that is less than 0 (-0.8 to be exact). That’s right; Melky and Matt Diaz have been so bad this year that they have actually cost the Braves wins.

Heyward currently leads all major league players in Win Probability Added at 3.29. That number alone makes me think Heyward should be a strong MVP candidate, not just the leader in Rookie of the Year voting.

Going further, this Atlanta Braves team feels different. With Heyward in the lineup, they are a much better team and more feared opponent. In fact, when Heyward doesn’t play the majority of the game (i.e. pinch hitting or two inning appearances as well as off days) the Braves are just 3-5, compared to 21-17 when does.

Throw in the fact that a large portion of the attendance increase at Turner Field is likely due to Heyward, and he is helping the organization on and off the field.

All in all, I think that the Braves decision to start Heyward in the majors has been huge. I would give the Braves a record of 21-25 (as supposed to 24-22) without Heyward on the team. If the Braves called Heyward up at the same time as Tommy Hanson, I think the Braves team is worse by at least 4 games, which likely determines whether the Braves will play or watch in October.

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With Brooks Conrad’s walk-off grand slam, the Braves have won three games in a row (all by walk-offs) and completed a sweep (even if it was only two games) over the previously surging Cincinnati Reds.

I know momentum doesn’t play as big of a role in baseball as it does other sports (specifically football), but I can’t see how the Braves aren’t flying high after this past win.

With three games at Pittsburgh on tap, the Braves really have a chance to start climbing the division standings, which would be good since the schedule gets considerably tougher in June (with the Phillies, Dodgers, Twins, and Rays all on tap in the first two thirds of the month).

The most promising thing over the past three days was the pitching of Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami.

Most know of Lowe’s struggles since coming to Atlanta, but he might finally be figuring it out. While his past two starts haven’t been terrific, he’s gone a total of 13 innings, allowing five runs and lowering his ERA from 6.16 to 5.47 over that span.

Kawakami’s last start was easily his best of the year, as he threw six shutout innings, bringing his ERA down below 5.00 for the first time in nearly a month. Considering that the Braves were up 4-0 when he made his departure, I’m surprised Bobby Cox didn’t let Kawakami try to navigate the Reds lineup in the seventh inning, as he had thrown only 79 pitches when he was lifted for a pinch hitter.

The pitching hasn’t all been terrific though, as the bullpen finally looked human on Wednesday. They blew a four run lead, and Billy Wagner has only converted 66.7 percent of his save opportunities on the year (which, to be fair, haven’t been coming along all that often as he only has six chances this year).

In the second game of the Reds series, the bullpen was much better, allowing one run in 7.1 innings (and that run was allowed by Jesse Chavez, who worked 3.1 innings).

While the three straight walk-offs will draw most of the headlines, the Braves accomplished a few other feats with their (mini-) sweep of the Reds.

The team finally moved above .500 (for the first time since before their nine-game losing streak.

Also, with Yunel Escobar and Melky Cabrera getting their batting averages up to an even .200, all of the Braves position players are hitting at or above the Mendoza line for the first time this year.

Upcoming Series: Atlanta Braves (21-20) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (18-23)

Friday: Tim Hudson (4-1, 2.41) @ Ross Ohlendorf (0-1, 3.00)

Saturday: Derek Lowe (5-4, 5.47) vs. Charlie Morton (1-7, 9.68)

Sunday: Kris Medlen (1-1, 2.45) vs. Zach Duke (3-4, 5.08)

Normally I have trouble predicting a sweep. There are just so many things that can happen in a three game set, which is why most teams focus on winning the entire series.

But I really think that the Braves will sweep the Pirates this week. The pitching matchups all seem to favor the Braves, and their lineup should have some momentum following the three walk-off wins. 

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I’m sure most of you have been in the following situation: You make a decision, it turns out bad, and when you look back at it you realize that you overlooked a major factor which likely led to your bad decision.

Well that’s how I feel about the Atlanta Braves left-field situation right now.

After an offseason of speculating players, platoons, and positions, I realize that I overlooked an obvious solution from the beginning: Eric Hinske.

Signed to be a utility player and pinch hitter, I (along with most others, I assume) never really looked at Hinske as a viable candidate to start in the outfield. The Braves obviously felt the same way, as Hinske started off the year on the bench, pinch hitting in almost every game.

But going through Hinske’s career numbers last night, I realized that if I was given stats (and not names) to choose from, I would have chosen Hinske to platoon in left field with Matt Diaz.

Before getting into the discussion on Hinske and Melky Cabrera, I just want to discuss Diaz for a second. I know he is off to a terrible start this year (like Melky and Nate McLouth), but his career numbers vs. lefties are .303/.351/.524, and those easily make him the best option against left-handed pitchers.

Since the Cabrera trade, it’s generally been assumed that he would start against right-handed pitchers in a platoon with Diaz. But how do his numbers actually stand up to Hinske’s? Not that well. Here are their career splits against right-handed pitchers.

Melky Cabrera .272/.331/.387

Eric Hinske .264/.348/.458

As you can see, Cabrera has the higher average, but Hinske gets on base more and has a lot more power than Melky.

In a line-up that isn’t designed to manufacture a ton of runs, a player like Hinske, who can drive players on first base in much more frequently, would seem to have more value.

However, Melky does have some intangibles working in his favor. He is 7 years younger than Hinske (25 to 32) and is a switch hitter (although he hasn’t exactly impressed anyone with his .248 career average against left-handed pitchers).

On defense, a place where Melky probably looks a lot better to the naked eye, there really isn’t much difference between the two. Hinske’s career UZR 150 in the outfield (he has only played the corner spots) is 0.4, while Melky’s is—1.9. To be fair, Melky is hurt because he has spent most of his time in centerfield (which is harder to play), but his UZR 150 in left field is only 0.4, which is no better than Hinske’s.

All in all, I think that Hinske is clearly the better option in left field for the Braves. Although they lose their best pinch hitter and a little bit of speed in the lineup, the Braves would have added power which would eventually help create more runs.

Once you throw in the fact that Melky has been ice cold to start 2010, it’s clear that Hinske should be starting the majority of the games in left field.

Also, I will be on Stache Radio this Sunday night at 11:15 (the show starts at 11) to discuss the Braves and their upcoming series with the New York Mets so be sure to tune in.

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Today, in the Braves second consecutive win (we need one more for a winning streak), Troy Glaus had three hits in four trips to the plate (his only out was when Hunter Pence made a diving grab) bringing his season average up 25 points to .221.

But with a couple of his hits coming against left-handed pitching, I’m among those still skeptical of Glaus. To say the least, he has been terrible this year. Whether it’s grounding into double plays with the bases loaded or striking out key situations, Glaus has done played a key part in the Braves slow start.

While there is still time to turn it around, someone to keep an eye on might be Barbaro Canizares, who is currently playing in AAA Gwinnett. Freddie Freeman likely won’t be ready until at least next year, and the Braves may not want to trade away their talent for another first baseman.

While I don’t think Barbaro will be an impact player on the major league level, he might be better than Glaus if things don’t change.

Canizares is a 30 year old who has barely had any time above the AAA level. Last year he got his first cup of coffee in the majors, getting four hits in 21 at-bats.

In 2010, he’s off to a slow start in AAA, but with a significant sample of at-bats there in the past, there is no reason to expect he won’t be hitting .300 by the end of the year.

In 330 games at the AAA level, Canizares has produced a .301/.359/.436 line, and could be a useful hitter at the major league level.

While most of his power comes from hitting doubles, Canizares wouldn’t be the home run threat that a healthy Glaus would, but he also wouldn’t be a black hole in the team’s batting average.

With a healthy on-base percentage, Canizares could prove to be a useful hitter in the lower half of the order (and our leading homerun hitter, Jason Heyward could move into the middle).

Again, I’m not saying that Barbaro should be called up to replace Glaus now. I also think that the Braves would be wise to look outside the organization if Glaus is unable to turn his season around. But if Troy continues to struggle while starting, and the Braves refuse to make a trade, Canizares should be a given a chance to provide a boost at the bottom of the Braves order.

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