Kuzul

The Yankees magic number was down to one, but they never really had a chance to clinch last night thanks to an absolutely terrible performance from starter A.J. Burnett, who couldn’t even last three innings as he gave up seven runs over 2.1 innings in a 7-5 loss in Toronto.

Here are some highlights:

• Burnett’s line: 2.1 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HR.
• He is the first Yankees pitcher since 1992 to post 15 losses in a season.
• The offense struggled against Mark Rzepczynski, who struck out nine batters in five innings. He did give up a two-run homer to Curtis Granderson.
• Mark Teixeira made it interesting in the seventh when his three-run homer made it 7-5, but the Yankees didn’t score again.
• After the game manager Joe Girardi refused to talk about the playoffs and Burnett’s potential involvement in them.

Coming into last night’s game, Burnett was 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in his last four starts. Nothing spectacular by any stretch, but enough to build on. If he had a good start last night and had a big moment helping the Yankees clinch a playoff spot, you might actually have felt good about him pitching in the playoffs.

At this point it’s certainly hard to imagine him as anything but the fourth starter at best in the playoffs behind CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes. If the other options weren’t equally as bad, Burnett would be even lower.

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This is not a panic post about Mariano Rivera struggling, because as always, I have full faith in him. At the same time, it’s hard to ignore what’s been going on.

Rivera’s struggles go back to September 11. On September 10, he pitched two innings in Texas. It was a strong performance. He needed just 23 pitches to get through those two innings so Joe Girardi decided it was okay to go with him the next night.

That day things went wrong for Rivera. He needed 21 pitches to get just one out and was pulled without being able to get through the inning.

Here are his numbers from September 11 on:

Six G, 0-1 record, three SV, 3 BS, 5.2 IP, nine H, six ER, two BB, one SO, one HR, and a 9.53 ERA.

Now, Rivera’s velocity has been consistent, so it’s not likely a physical problem. He’s hasn’t been as consistent within the strike zone as he usually is.

Again, this is not a panic post, Rivera will turn it around. But I did want to point out how bad he has been. And at the age of 40, we need to be reminded that he won’t last forever. Once he does fade, the Yankees could be in real trouble.

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In recent weeks a lot has been made about the American League Cy Young award and the debate has mostly surrounded CC Sabathia vs. Felix Hernandez. Last night the Yankees were blanked by Jon Lester and it was an amazing performance that should put him into that conversation as well.

First, let’s get some stats out of the way:

To me, Felix Hernandez is still out in front, but his 12-12 record really doesn’t sit well with a lot of people (even though a team’s lineup and defense weighs at least as heavily as a pitcher’s performance on the mound, so the “Win” statistic is probably the worst representation of a pitcher’s performance out of all the stats above).

So even though it seems ignorant to blame King Felix’s record for why he shouldn’t win, let’s ignore him for now.

Moving on to Jon Lester. Lester has flown under the Cy Young radar for most of the season. Probably because he really never stood out until a recent hot streak and that there have been so many issues surrounding the Red Sox.

Newly acquired John Lackey has been under a microscope, Josh Beckett has been drawing attention thanks to a new contract, an up-and-down season, and injuries. Also there has been Clay Buchholz and his phenomenal season.

Lester won his 19th game of the season last night, giving him at least one more chance to match Sabathia’s 20. He has a lower ERA than CC, as many complete games, more strikeouts, a lower WHIP, a smaller home run rate, a better strikeout rate, and a superior strikeout to walk rate. Really there are only three things he trails CC in, wins, innings, and he walks more (but again, his strikeout to walk ratio is better).

All along, King Felix has had better numbers when compared to Sabathia, but because of a win total many have thought Sabathia has been superior. Now there is a candidate that might be superior to Sabathia and has the win total to back it up.

Personally, I am a huge Sabathia fan. Ever since he signed on the dotted line and donned the pinstripes, he has been my favorite pitcher. And I think he could win a Cy Young one year and will always root for him. But the bottom line is that I don’t want to see him win one that is undeserved because writers put too much emphasis on a stat that says so little about the way you pitch.

If ignorance has to reign, Lester should probably win the award over Sabathia anyway.

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Ivan Nova had a tough time at it in the Bronx tonight as the Red Sox lit him up for four runs which was more than enough for Jon Lester who shut the Yankees out over seven innings in an eventual 7-3 Yankee loss.

Here are some highlights:

Nova pitched well as long as runners were not on base, but struggled mightily with men on allowing three runs in the third and another in the fifth.

With the Yankees down 4-0, Joe Girardi brought in his girlfriend Chad Gaudin who gave up back-to-back homers to J.D. Drew and Victor Martinez to put the sox up 6-0.

Over the last 16 days Gaudin has pitched seven times with an ERA of 9.82.

The Yankees used six pitchers in this game. Only one, Joba Chamberlain, is a lock to make the postseason roster.

Derek Jeter extended his hitting streak to 14 games.

Alex Rodriguez hit his 28th homer of the season.

Curtis Granderson hit his 23rd homer.

Francisco Cervelli was the only other Yankee with a hit, he singled in the 6th to break up a no hitter.

Austin Kearns played for the first time since last Sunday.

The Yankees are now 7-7 against the Red Sox on the season and are now 5.5 games ahead of them for the Wild-Card. People are panicking about the Sox knocking them out of the playoffs, but all the Yankees have to do is win one game against them and one against the Blue Jays and they are in. With seven games left, those are pretty good odds.

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The Red Sox jumped out to a quick 10-1 lead by the fifth inning, but the Yankees managed to come all the way back to the point where they put the tying run at the plate in the ninth inning, only to see Robinson Cano strikeout to end the game 10-8.

Here are some highlights:

• The Yankees hit six home runs combined. Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira had two each and Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson had the others.
• A-Rod tied and past Sammy Sosa on the home run list. He now has 610, good for sixth place all time.
• Derek Jeter extended his hitting streak to 13 games. He’s batting .321 with an .802 OPS during that stretch.
• Andy Pettitte pitched just 3.1 innings and allowed seven runs, six earned, to get his first loss since returning from the DL.
• Pettitte said he felt fine physically.
• Jonathan Albaladejo came on in relief and gave up three runs over 1.2 innings.
• Sergio Mitre, Kerry Wood, and Boone Logan held the Sox scoreless over the final four innings.

The loss combined with a Rays win has knocked the Yankees back into second place by half a game. The magic number to clinch a playoff spot is still three, which means the Yankees can still get it done in this series against the Red Sox. However, they have Ivan Nova going today and Dustin Moseley going tomorrow, so they have their work cut out for them.

With the way the Yankees hit Josh Beckett, and with Andy Pettitte on the mound, they really should have won this game. They can make up for it by winning the next two, but dropping this series would be disappointing (although it wouldn’t necessarily mean anything).

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Via Chad Jennings:

To further limit his innings, Phil Hughes will take his next start on Wednesday. Dustin Moseley will start for the Yankees on Sunday.

Joe Girardi said there might be more changes coming as the Yankees setup their playoff rotation.

This change, though, Girardi said is strictly for Hughes’ workload. Girardi said he expects Wednesday to be Hughes’ last outing of the regular season.

Hughes was supposed to start two more times which potentially could have added 18 more innings to the 169.1 he’s already accumulated. Obviously it would have been more like 10-12 additional innings, but now it means he’s going to finish right around 175 which is pretty much the number that was rumored going back to spring training.

The biggest issue now is that Hughes will only have one more start to get ready for the playoffs.

If it’s a poor one there will be a lot of questions surrounding Hughes and the Yankees rotation. The front end of the rotation has strong potential, but without a strong third starter the Yankees are going to struggle to repeat as world champions.

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The big series in the standings may be the Yankees vs. the Rays, but judging by the ticket prices on StubHub, the one the fans care about is Yankees vs. Red Sox and we have a good one tonight as Andy Pettitte goes up against Josh Beckett.

Here are some notes:

• The Yankees have begun making plans for the postseason, and those include plans for Phil Hughes. They won’t reveal those plans though.
• Brian Cashman confirmed what I thought yesterday, Royce Ring can pitch himself on to the playoff roster.
• Andrew Brackman has been activated and Cashman told Joe Girardi to feel free to use him. That doesn’t necessarily mean he will pitch though.
• Girardi gave us another Damaso Marte update, he isn’t likely to make it back this season after all.
• Last night Javier Vazquez became the first Yankee to ever hit three batters in a row.
• David Robertson‘s back is apparently feeling better after suffering spasms the other day. He could be back today, but Girardi will likely try to avoid using him.
• Austin Kearns has been dealing with a sore right index finger. It’s feeling better, but not yet 100 percent and is why he didn’t play against David Price last night, who is a lefty.

That sucks to hear that Marte is not making a comeback after all. I have a feeling we’re going to get to see Ring pitch quite a bit over the next nine games.

I would like to see Brackman pitch, but I’m not holding my breath.

I’m starting to think that the Yankees could carry Ivan Nova and Ring on the playoff roster and not Vazquez.

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The CC Sabathia vs. Felix Hernandez debate may have ended last night as Sabathia dropped a big game to the Rays, allowing seven runs over just 5.1 innings. The Yankees eventually lost 10-3 at home.

Some highlights:

• Sabathia was doing well enough through 5 innings. At one point he struck out 3 batters in a row looking. It all fell apart in the 6th though as he allowed a single, double, K, single, single, walk, and a walk before was relieved by Joba Chamberlain.
• In the 7th Javier Vazquez did not help his own chances at making the playoff roster. He allowed two runs on zero hits thanks to a walk followed by then three consecutive hit batters.
• The Yankees runs came from a Marcus Thames two-run homer and a Nick Swisher RBI single.
• Swisher went 2-for-3 with a walk. Robinson Cano and Greg Golson were the only other players with at least two hits.
• Alex Rodriguez went 0-for-2 with a pair of walks.
• Derek Jeter extended his hitting streak to 12 games.
• David Price tossed 6 innings and allowed just 3 runs.
• The Yankees’ lead in the AL East is just 0.5 games, and they have fallen behind the Minnesota Twins for the best record in baseball.

It was a tough series, and the Yankees came away from it with a split. Now they have nine games left—six against the Red Sox, and three against the Blue Jays.

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Via Jack Curry’s Twitter:

Yanks expect 11 pitchers for DS. CC, AJ, Andy, Phil, Mo, Wood, Joba, Logan, Rbrtsn r locks. Nova, Vazquez, Gaudin, Mitre fight 4 2 spots.

He forgot to mention Dustin Moseley, but I assume if he blew the Yankees away over the next two weeks he could easily beat out some of these players. I’m also going to throw in Royce Ring because he is a lefty and could worm his way on to the ALDS roster with some impressive performances.

So the possible final two pitchers are these players: Moseley, Ring, Ivan Nova, Javier Vazquez, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre. Let’s take a look at each pitcher by FIP* (I’m using this because it’s probably the most fair statistic to judge relievers by):

Ring 2.49
Nova 4.21
Mitre 5.02
Vazquez 5.34
Gaudin 5.77
Moseley 5.92

Relievers are a volatile bunch so let’s take a closer look at each pitcher.

Vazquez is probably the most likely to make the team out of this group based mostly on experience and the size of his contract (even if Brian Cashman denies this). He has a 5.05 ERA in 149.2 innings this season. While that is not impressive, he has potential and had a great run over 12 starts for part of the summer.

I like Nova, so we’ll go with him next. Nova’s overall numbers aren’t exactly pretty, but his ERA has risen after pitching through lineups the second and third times through. If he’s coming out of the bullpen, he might be an asset only facing teams once around. Even at a two or three inning clip, he could be quite a weapon.

Girardi seems to really like Gaudin so he’s probably got a good shot. Normally he is a guy who puts up big strikeout numbers, but he only has 53 strikeouts in 63.1 innings this season. Combine that with his 25 walks and 5.54 ERA and the Yankees should stay away from this guy. He hasn’t been good lately either—over the last month he’s been in eight games and has a 5.91 ERA.

Ring has almost no experience in the major leagues this year, but had decent minor league numbers. Over 42 innings he had a 1.93 ERA with 39 K’s and just 11 walks. He will have to pitch lights out every time out though to even get attention.

Mitre and Moseley have already been forgotten about. In the last month Moseley has made three starts, none since Andy Pettitte came back, and two relief appearances for 18.2 innings. Mitre has almost been nonexistant pitching only three times in 30 days for a whopping 7.1 innings.

Mitre could get some more chances thanks to his 2.45 ERA over the last 30 days, but Moseley’s 5.30 ERA should make him a forgotten man.

There are still 10 games left in the season, but my guess is that Nova and Vazquez are the final two players on the ALDS roster. Depending on the opponent and results over the upcoming days, I still wouldn’t rule out Ring.

What do you think?

*(Here is a brief description of FIP via FanGraphs: a pitcher’s FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, which calculates a pitcher’s responsibility for the runs he allows based on his walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed. The FIP formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor that scales FIP to match league average ERA for a given season and league).

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At age 34, Lance Berkman has started to feel his age this season as he has dealt with a few nagging injuries that have dragged his numbers down. His season in Houston was up and down and the first two weeks in the Bronx were just ugly.

Berkman went on the DL in the middle of August, and before he came off the DL he started working with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long in order to hit the ground running as soon as he was activated.

That work has paid off. Since returning from the DL on September 1st, Berkman has hit .370 with a .460 OBP, and a .942 OPS. His power hasn’t been overwhelming, but he does have three doubles in that stretch and finally hit his first homer as a Yankee last night, so even that looks like it’s coming around.

Of course, Berkman gives all the credit to K-Long:

“When I first came over here, my swing was pretty flawed mechanically,” Berkman said. “I’d gotten into some real bad habits. Just working and trying to correct some of that with Kevin, I just feel more comfortable. I think my swing is working better.”

Considering the Yankees almost stole Berkman from the Astros, his pickup could be one of the best moves of Brian Cashman’s career. Especially if he becomes a weapon during the playoffs.

Hopefully he and Long can keep his game consistent and he keeps contributing the way he has over the last 20 games, because the Berkman of September 2010 looks an awful lot like the Berkman of old.

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