Kuzul

Yes and no. 

No offense to Vernon Wells (or anyone from the 90’s championship teams), but Carlos Delgado is the best position player in Toronto Blue Jays’ history by a long shot. And maybe the best player as well.

Delgado’s 2000 season is drop-dead off the charts, and may be the best non-steroids-enhanced campaign ever by a batter (or at least among players not named in the Mitchell Report, I don’t want to be called naive or anything). That summer he hit .344/470/.664, while launching 41 homers and walking 19 times more than he struck out. He played all 162 games, and would do so again in 2001.

There’s no question that his skills have dropped off the table significantly since then, but he can still put up a .500 SLG and I believe would be a great bench player who occasionally could fill in at first base against lefties for Adam Lind. But it’s about more just his still-present tools. 2011 is likely his last season, and the Blue Jays should induct the Hall of Fame-hopeful into their Level of Excellence. He’s more deserved than most of the players currently on it, despite never winning a World Series or even playing in the post-season for Toronto.

Delgado wouldn’t really cost anything to start with either, it’s very likely that Minor League contracts will be all he’ll be choosing from in the first place. Alex Anthopolous has said that he still has some work to do regarding the Blue Jays bench, a Carlos Delgado signing would be a great place to start.

To continue reading this article, including why the author doesn’t believe the Blue Jays should trade for Michael Young, visit http://bttn.blogspot.com/2011/02/should-toronto-blue-jays-go-after.html. BTTN is a new Toronto sports site that contains tons of opinion and insight on the Toronto Blue Jays.

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Alex Anthopoulos had stated pretty clearly in multiple radio interviews that he’s perfectly happy to go to arbitration with Jose Bautista.

But I believe that extension time is now, and with the newfound cash following the Vernon Wells trade (although I don’t think it all needs to be spent at once), the opportunity has presented itself for the Blue Jays to follow through on extending the MLB home run king. 

I propose a 4 year, $45 million contract.

Brady Anderson has easily been the most referenced player in connection with Jose Bautista. Yet Brady wasn’t exactly terrible following his 50 homer season, regardless of public opinion and the lack of any eye-popping stats in following seasons.

Sure, he never hit for plus-plus power after 1996, but just look at the OPS’s of the four seasons after his big year: .862, .776, .881, .796. Not too bad, eh? And certainly worth $10 million in today’s crazy baseball economy. 

Fangraphs (and others) estimates one WAR to be worth between $4 and $5 million dollars (we’ll use 4.5), and combining Anderson’s WAR from the four seasons following 1996 (total of 11.5), he’s worth $51.75 mil over that four year stretch.

Still think giving Jose Bautista a shiny new contract is too risky?

Anderson is seen as the sterling example of what terrible thing could happen to Jose Bautista in 2011, a frightening historical precedent that can’t be ignored. But clearly, even if Bautista does fall off an Anderson-like cliff after signing my proposed four year $45 million dollar deal, it would still be worth it. And then some.

On the opposite side of the spectrum of surprising 50 homer hitters is Cecil Fielder, who after toiling away in Toronto, got his chance with Detroit in 1990 to be an everyday hitter, and boy did he claim it, with 51 home runs and a .277/.377/.592 line.

Yes, he’s nowhere near the same type of player as Bautista and the miracle season was under very different circumstances, but the main point remains the same: it was surprising, and people wondered if it was all a mirage.

It wasn’t, and although never again did Fielder hit an OPS of .900 in a season or even reach 45 bombs, he did average 33.6 dingers over the next five years. These five seasons were worth 14 WAR according to Fangraphs, and therefore a value of $63MM. 

Now, this brings up a new argument: home runs aren’t all what they’re made out to be, as Anderson almost reaches Fielder’s value plateau despite never again hitting 25 and a big shift in the court of public opinion.

But my point still stands, even in the worst-case scenario that fans are predicting for Bautista in 2011, he’s still worth a big contract, as he has a long way to fall.

Please Alex Anthopoulos, pay Jose Bautista.

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Last week, I ranked the Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects. Today, I’m taking it a step further and ranking the number 11-20 top Blue Jays prospects.

11. J.P. Arencibia, C

Many readers have piped in to say that leaving Arencibia off our top ten must have been a mistake, but it wasn’t. I can’t see him becoming an impact player at the big leagues. He just doesn’t have enough plate discipline and won’t hit for a high enough average to allow his on-base percentage to be adequate. He’ll probably still be good enough to warrant a starting role on some teams, but with Toronto’s multitude of high-upside catcher prospects, don’t expect him to be on the team in 2014.

12. Jake Marisnick, CF

Marisnick was drafted in the third round of the 2009 draft, and 2010 was met with mixed results. After tearing up rookie ball (.373 OBP, .459 SLG, 14/1 SB/CS), he was promoted to Lansing, where he dropped to a .298 OBP and .339 SLG. But his walk rate remained solid (7.1 percent) and his defense remained excellent. Marisnick is still only 19, so expect him to start the year in Lansing and perhaps earn a call-up to Dunedin if he plays well.

13. Chad Jenkins, SP

It’s hard to get too excited about Toronto’s 2009 first-round draft pick, Chad Jenkins. In his first pro season, split between Lansing and Dunedin, he only managed to strike out 6.7 per 9 IP, although his walk totals were low as well (2.0 BB/9). Jenkins was drafted with the assumption that he’d ascend through the minors quickly, yet he’s 23 and still hasn’t had a sniff of AA. He’s probably not going to see the majors until 2012, if he ever does.

14. Adonis Cardona, SP

Overshadowed by the monstrous contract the Blue Jays gave to fellow international free agent Adeiny Hechavarria, Cardona was given $2.8 million in July. Most refer to him as the best pitcher to come out of Venezuela this year, and I’ve surely gotten excited over him. Cardona, only 17, apparently touches 94 with his fastball and has tons of room to add velocity as he ages.

15. Eric Thames, OF

Some call Thames a fringy prospect because he’s already 24 and likely isn’t going to get much better. While I must in part agree, it’s hard to look past the fact that he OPS’d .896 in AA with 27 home runs in only 496 at-bats, while showing solid plate discipline (8.73 BB%). He’ll never be a four WAR player, but I see no reason that he can’t be a positive player in the big leagues.The minor league equivalency calculator shows that if Thames would have spent 2010 in the majors, he would have batted .242/.307/.413. Now, that’s not very good, especially considering the position (corner OF) he plays, but with a bit of improvement, Thames could be a solid fourth outfielder, good enough to warrant 300 at-bats.

The rest of this article, including my Toronto Blue Jays Top 16-20 Prospects Rankings, can be found at: http://bttn.blogspot.com/2011/01/bttn-toronto-blue-jays-top-11-20.html.

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1. Kyle Drabek

Last year’s top Blue Jays prospect as well, Drabek took more steps forward in 2010, playing the full season in AA New Hampshire. Pitching to a 2.94 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, Drabek threw a total of 162.0 innings. The large number of innings means that if Drabek does indeed start 2011 in the big league rotation, there will not be much need for an innings cap later in the season as Brandon Morrow experienced in 2010, as a full workload of 200 innings is right in line with the Jays general guidelines regarding increasing the workload of pitchers.

At this point, there’s no need to worry about his Tommy John surgery anymore; he’s moved on and has pitched enough since for it not to be a concern.

Most scouts do not consider Drabek to be of ace-material. He is very good at a lot of things but does not possess a nasty out-pitch and does not possess outstanding control or velocity (fastball tops out at 94 and is fairly straight). His 7.3 SO/9 and 3.8 BB/9 rates this year back up this sentiment; neither is too special and lead to a 1.94 SO/BB rate.

That said, Drabek still projects to be an above-average starter, and should put together a string of 3.40-3.80 FIP seasons in the middle of the rotation for years to come.

2. Brett Lawrie

Lawrie came over from Milwaukee recently as the sole player acquired in the Shaun Marcum swap. He was drafted a single pick (16th overall) before the Jays took David Cooper in the 2008 entry draft, and legend has it that Toronto was prepared to take Lawrie had the Brewers not snapped him up first.

Now to Lawrie’s skills. Brett has very good bat speed, and while that hasn’t yet translated into home runs, most scouts assume that he will develop solid 25+ home runs annually (36 doubles, 16 triples in AA in 2010). He also has solid base-running skills and can work a walk.

It’s also important to note that Lawrie was the second youngest full-time player in the entire AA Southern League last year, and he collected his .285/.346/.451 line against players much older than him (average SL age is about 24).

A converted catcher, he’s taken his lumps playing second base, and lots of people within the industry believe that he’ll end up as a corner outfielder in the majors, but I think that much worse athletes have succeeded as infielders, and with hard work, he could become an average second or third baseman.

3. Anthony Gose

The lone player that came over from Philadelphia via Houston in the Brett Wallace deadline sway, Gose may be the fastest player in the minor leagues. He’s stolen 121 bases in his last two minor league seasons (at A and low-A ball), and while he was probably thrown out more than his share of times (a shocking 52 times caught stealing in the last two years), I tend to think that it was the product of tons of pitchouts; with that speed, there’s no doubt teams were expecting him to take off every time he got on base.

To me, plate discipline is perhaps the most important trait of a hitter. To be a good batter, you must work counts and take your walks. And Gose managed to put up a respectable .360 OBP in 27 games with Dunedin after the trade. Most scouts agree that he still has some holes in his swing, and that with good instruction, he could become a .280 hitter (or better) at the major-league level.

With 600 PA, a modest 60 of those walks, the .280 average adds up to a .380 on-base— a good rate for a leadoff hitter.His defense, while still raw, has potential to be plus-plus in centerfield and might have the best outfield arm in the low-minors.

Gose is hardly a finished product however, he’s only 20 and isn’t likely to see the majors until 2013 at the earliest. 

4. Deck McGuire

Toronto’s first round draft pick in 2010, McGuire is expected to rise through the ranks pretty quickly, maybe making the majors mid-2012. Some scouts don’t think he has ace-potential because he profiles as a strike-thrower with a slightly-above average fastball and strong out-pitches. His changeup is probably his best pitch, and knowing that the Jays seem to have a formidable reputation of developing changeups, it could certainly become a true out-pitch and vault him to the next level, a la Ricky Romero.

He’ll probably start the year in Dunedin and could finish the season in AA New Hampshire.

5. Zach Stewart

Stewart is surely an interesting case, profiling as a reliever in college and with Cincinnati, but after acquiring him in the Scott Rolen trade, Toronto instantly set their sights on lengthening him out into a starter—which was met with encouraging results in 2010. Sure, his overall 3.63 ERA and 1.96 SO/BB don’t pop out, but down the stretch, he was fantastic, and Keith Law raved about him after seeing him pitch in the Eastern League playoffs.

It remains to be seen what the plan for 2011 regarding Stewart is. If he lights it up in Spring Training and the Jays still don’t have their fifth starter dilemma fully worked out, I could see him making the big leagues immediately. Otherwise, he would probably start the year in AA, as the Blue Jays seem hesitant to put top pitching prospects in AAA due to how batter-friendly the entire PCL is.

To read the rest of this article, including the top 6-10 Blue Jays prospects visit http://bttn.blogspot.com/2011/01/bttn-top-10-jays-prospects-for-2011.html

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