Kuzul

There has been a lot of big news this winter, mostly regarding a particular starting pitcher. However, a few set-up men and seventh-inning guys have made headlines of their own. 

Joaquin Benoit, a set-up man who recorded one save last season, received a three-year, $16.5 million deal from the Detroit Tigers last month. Three weeks later, the Los Angeles Angels agreed to give seventh-inning man Scott Downs $15 million over three years.

Two days ago, the Chicago White Sox locked up set-up man Jesse Crain for $13 million over three years. 

These three pitchers, not to mention the other six relievers to sign a contract for over $5 million this winter, are being paid more than middle relievers have ever made in the past.

Benoit will be the highest-paid set-up man going into the 2011 season, and many of this winter’s signings will top that list as well. These high contracts are not caused by scarcity of the position; there is an ample supply of relief pitchers this winter. 

In 2004-05, Steve Kline was ranked in the Top 50 MLB Free Agents by ESPN. He got $5.5 million over two years from the Baltimore Orioles. 

This winter, MLB Trade Rumors ranked seven non-closing RPs in the top 50. 

This strange anomaly of relief-pitcher signings has its share of theories. Some say that starters are being used more carefully and for fewer innings, creating more innings for a bullpen to pitch. 

However, this is not true: In 2004, among pitchers who made 10 or more starts, the average innings/per start ratio was 5.51 compared to the average start lasting 5.68 innings in 2010. 

Many teams are moving closer to the old model for a pitching staff, where only seven or eight guys pitched for a team and it did not require six bullpen changes to get through a low-scoring game. 

Teams are preparing their pitchers to pitch more innings, creating less of a workload for their bullpen. 

Based on the changes in starting pitching, one might think that relievers are returning to the old style of play as well, working two or three innings per game. However, the average outing for a reliever was 1.09 innings in 2004 and 1.01 in 2010. 

What teams are really paying for is efficiency and closer security.

All the pitchers who appeared in 37 games or more last year gave up an average of .91 hits per inning. In 2004, this average was .97. Teams now expect each reliever to pitch fewer innings, but allow fewer baserunners and maintain a lower ERA than six years ago. 

Teams like Chicago and Los Angeles are paying so much for these free agents to ensure their bullpens are the most efficient from top to bottom. Other teams see the statistical trends and are driving up the prices on these once frivolous contracts.

The second reason teams are paying so much more for relievers is the closer role. 

In 2004, there were 35 relievers who recorded 10 saves or more. The average in this group was 29.3, with 4.7 blown saves per guy. 

Last season, 37 closers had at least 10 saves and each one averaged 26.4. They only blew 4.3 each, but teams were still giving more pitchers chances in the ninth inning.

This is odd, considering many point to the growing number of blown saves as the reason for the increasing number of changes in closers. However, more teams appear to switch their closer out for no other reason than to give another guy a chance.  Maybe because teams feel that when they pay more for a middle-reliever that is efficient, he should get a chance at closer even if their regular guy is doing fine. 

This winter may be one of the early steps in a new stage of the evolution of baseball. 

Some time in the future, we may see teams that carry two closers who can be used interchangeably and GMs who pay more for bullpens that will become increasingly efficient. 

High efficiency short-relievers are more sought-after for bullpen stabilization, and these expensive signings will become more common next year and for many years to come.  

Thanks to http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/ for info on contracts.  Cool site, check it out.

You can follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/#!/charlie123517

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The Rockies will have all three of their superstars next season—and that’s all that matters to Colorado fans right now.  But, as we inch closer to the dreaded winter of 2014, when Carlos Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez are eligible to become free agents, the upcoming decisions are weighing heavy on GM Dan O’Dowd’s mind.

O’Dowd has begun talks with Gonzalez’s agent, Scott Boras, on a seven-year deal, worth something less than $100 million according to mlbtraderumors.com.  Even though CarGo has only had one season worthy of this type of contract, it makes sense for the Rockies to go after a player who has not yet proved himself as an elite outfielder. 

If Gonzalez keeps up his numbers for the next couple years, which is most likely, he will be worth at least $20 million per year when he becomes eligible for free agency in 2014. 

If they can lock Gonzalez up now, his contract would probably give him somewhere between $8 million and $14 million per year. 

On the flip side, Gonzalez could fizzle out with the comfort of a huge contract.  If he for some reason can’t produce similar numbers again, it would be a real shame for Colorado if O’Dowd invests something over $60 million on the outfielder this winter. 

Unlike with Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado fans aren’t quite sure how badly Gonzalez wants to remain on the Rockies.  The biggest clue we have is this statement by owner Dick Monfort:

“Well, I haven’t talked directly with Carlos, but I know he likes it here. And as a player, I would like to know that Troy Tulowitzki is going to be hitting behind me forever.”

Not too convincing, since Monfort’s only speculating.  But as a player, it would be nice to have Tulo behind you in the order.  However, Gonzalez is represented by Scott Boras, notorious for getting his clients every last penny.

O’Dowd is uncertain about CarGo wanting to stay in the Mile High City.  On denverpost.com, he said, “CarGo is under out control through 2014 and we do have a desire to keep him here for the long term. So we will have to address that at some point and time. But it is a two-way street. There needs to be a strong desire on both sides to work something out. We certainly hope there is.” (Click here for the full story)

If CarGo is that serious about staying in Colorado and doesn’t necessarily need the highest salary possible, he probably would have a different agent.

Dan O’Dowd will no doubt go hard to sign this high-risk, high-reward contract.  He understands that this current team gives Colorado the better chance of winning than any other team in Rockies’ history (he’s added pieces like Ty Wiggington and Jose Lopez, players he normally wouldn’t sign if he didn’t think the Rockies had a good chance the next season).

However, this current window of opportunity can be extended much further if CarGo signs with the team long-term.  The farm system is chalk-full of elite pitching prospects, and it includes a few decent infielders.  However, the outfield talent in the system is lacking.  Kyle Parker is the standout, but he hasn’t played a professional game yet.  Charles Blackmon is good, as is Tim Wheeler, but they don’t posses Gonzalez-caliber numbers or even Seth Smith-esque potential. 

With Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Gonzalez possibly cashing in big time in the next few years, this winter will be a critical time for the future of the ballclub.  We all know they can be good until 2014 (when Jimenez and Gonzalez are eligible for free agency), but CarGo will be 29 and still in the prime of his career by then (weird to think we have at least four more seasons with this guy.  I’m looking forward to it).  Ubaldo will be 30, still capable of producing Cy Young numbers.  Those two contracts could cost the team close to $200 million by that time. 

For now, the main goal for the front office should be putting on a playoff team for 2011.  However, if O’Dowd can’t lock up Gonzalez and Jimenez soon, the Monforts may have to cough up an extra $100 million later, or worse, say goodbye to one or both come 2014. 

You can follow me on twitter at http://twitter.com/#!/charlie123517

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After it was announced that Carl Crawford will play the next seven years in Boston, every Sox fan had the same thought: “Yes!  Suck it, New York!!!!”  Five seconds later, every Boston fan shared this thought as well: “Well, I guess that’s it for either Ellsbury or Cameron in Beantown.” The third thought that popped into every Boston fan’s head was, “Oh S—!! Now the Yanks will get Lee for sure!!”

Now, the biggest question for the Red Sox is not who will pitch the 7th inning, but if the Crawford signing was worth having to face Lee in the division. The Carl Crawford signing undoubtedly forces the Stein Brothers to cough up whatever amount necessary to net Cliff Lee to satisfy angry fans.

Every Yankee fan knows that George Steinbrenner would never allow Boston to get two MVP-type players in one offseason without New York adding its own superstar. Hal and Hank know it too, and they won’t let themselves be known as the guys who let Boston win the division in ’11. New York will have to push extra hard to put Lee in pinstripes now. 

Many Boston fans now wonder, should they have gone after Lee instead? In this world where Sawx fans would almost rather their team finish 5th in the division than see New York win a championship, would it have been smarter to get Lee and block the Yankees from adding what they desperately need?

Theo Epstein probably thought of getting Lee instead, but after an embarrassing display during the 2003-04 offseason negotiations for Alex Rodriguez, he probably thought it was best not to directly compete with the Yankees for fear of losing to them. Boston cannot just step aside and let New York have whichever free agents they want. In order to beat the Yankees during the season, Boston needs to step up and beat them during the offseason by going after the players the Yankees want as well.

If Boston signed Lee, their rotation would feature five aces, the best in baseball. Daisuke Matsuzaka, the biggest question mark in the rotation after posting a 4.69 ERA in 2010, would be bumped to the bullpen, or moved to another team in a trade. Boston would have no question marks regarding their rotation, while the outfield would still be pretty solid without Crawford. Ellsbury can steal 60 bases, Cameron can play excellent defense, and J.D. Drew can hit 20+ homers per year.

Now, with Crawford, Theo Epstein has to figure out which of his four outfielders he will trade for a useful part. Why add one player when you will just have to get rid of another that’s not bad at all? Mike Cameron had a .328 OBP in the 48 games he played in last season, while Ellsbury stole 70 bases in his last full season. Neither of those two are bad players, but one will be benched because of the signing of Crawford.

One can present the argument that while Boston didn’t really need a new left fielder, they don’t need a new starting pitcher either. To that, I say you have to look from the perspective of the rivalry. The Red Sox could use a starting pitcher like Lee, and they have the money. They could also use a left fielder, but the Yankees have no need for one. By signing Lee, Boston assures that neither Crawford nor Lee goes to their arch rival. Boston gets the best rotation in the majors, and a better chance to win the division by taking Lee from the Yankees.

Boston would have better spent their money on Cliff Lee rather than Carl Crawford because he would make the rotation unstoppable and the Yankees would miss out on an elite free agent. But because Boston went after Crawford instead, most Boston fans will be muttering, “That damn Cliff Lee,” for the next seven years.

You can follow Charlie at http://twitter.com/#!/charlie123517

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There has been a lot of talk recently about the Rockies acquiring outfielder Justin Upton from Arizona in return for more than the 22-year-old’s worth in talent.

The trade talks probably went no further than D’Backs GM Kevin Towers asking Colorado’s front office for half a lineup’s worth of minor league All-Stars, followed by the click of the phone being hung up. 

Rockies fans were disappointed when they heard the asking price, and quickly dismissed the idea of Upton playing right field for Colorado next season.

Even if the asking price was fair, it would be foolish to go after Upton.  Gonzalez, Fowler and Smith/Spilborghs make quite the outfield already, and the Rockies have much bigger holes to fill. 

Seth Smith is a young player with power and matched Upton for home runs last season.  Ryan Spilborghs is a versatile outfielder who has shown he can hold his own as a starter.  He had a better average than Upton last year over 134 games (Upton played in 133). 

The Rockies could use a starting pitcher, catcher or middle reliever much more than a fifth outfielder.  Chris Iannetta will be questionable at catcher to say the least, while the rotation may have to rely on two unproven starters if Dan O’Dowd cannot bring in a replacement for Jorge De La Rosa.   

Speaking of Iannetta, he and Upton share one major problem: attitude.

When Iannetta was sent down to AAA this past season, he was angry at the team for making him fix his swing.  Upton came up in 2007 as one of the most advanced 19-year-olds to ever play the game.  He was understandably disappointing in his first two big-league months, and only hit .250 with 16 home runs the next year in 108 games. 

Justin always had the talent, but never could turn it into superstar success on the field.  In 2008, Scout.com writer Tyler Hissey said, “B.J.’s little brother, Justin, has more talent, but does not have the same advanced approach.”

Justin has been content to try when he feels like it on the last-place Diamondbacks the past two years.  After he was drafted first overall in 2005, Upton shot up the minor league system and landed in the bigs two years later. 

He fulfilled his lifelong dream of being a major league player that he shared with his brother B.J., but apparently did not intend to pile on the accomplishments.  Justin said he uses his sibling rivalry with B.J. as motivation during his workouts, but that does not provide much motivation these days. 

Upton has been known to be an underachiever throughout his career, and if he comes to play with the likes of Eric Young, Jr., Ian Stewart and Carlos Gonzalez, the team may become a little too lax.

Even without Upton, the Rockies already have enough stubborn, underachieving young players who need a good, old-fashioned bat-beating from Tulo to fix their attitude problems.  The Rockies would be much better off trading for James Shields or Jesse Crain.

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Besides the East Coast bias-based awards announced each day this week, there’s not much going on in mid-November for baseball.  The top story today involved Brian Cashman flying to Arkansas, not particularly interesting considering everyone already knew the Yanks are going to negotiate with Cliff Lee. 

 To fill in some of the empty space between news of an executive boarding a plane and complaints about the Gold Glove voting system, I have skipped ahead of this winter, got out my crystal ball and compiled a list of ten things for fans to watch for in the near future.

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