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1
Sep/10

Fantasy Baseball Impact: The September Call-Ups

by under MLB

September is here (already?) and that means roster expansion. We’ll scour the list of September call-ups and point out the players that could help your fantasy team down the stretch.

 

Royals activate Josh Fields—Three years ago, Fields hit 23 home runs in only 373 at-bats for the Chicago White Sox. Hip surgery has kept him out for the majority of the 2010 season, though he was hitting well upon his return to action at Triple-A. It’s tough to expect much from Fields down the stretch, but I’d keep a close eye on his playing time.

 

Astros activate Jeff Keppinger—The most we can expect from Keppinger is exactly the type of value he provided earlier this season. His solid approach at the plate could lead to a late hot streak, which would help fantasy teams in need of AVG.

 

Rays called up Desmond Jennings, Brad Hawpe, Jeremy Hellickson, and Rocco Baldelli—Adding three more outfielders to the already crowded mix is not going to help anyone’s chances of putting up good fantasy stats. However, Hawpe is worth a look in deeper leagues due to his solid track record before this season. Hellickson is set to join the Rays pen, so his fantasy impact will be minimal for the time being.

 

D-Backs called up Brandon Allen—Allen has a ton of power (14.8 AB/HR rate at Triple-A), but he also has a ton of swing and miss in his game. Adam LaRoche is embedded at first, but Allen has been playing some left field at Triple-A of late and should see plenty of time there down the stretch. If you need some upside in power, Allen is worth taking a flier on.

 

Reds called up Yonder Alonso—Alonso has mostly been a disappointment since being drafted seventh overall be the Reds in 2008. This season, his slash line of .290/.352/.458 marks an improvement, but his power numbers have been disappointing (only 15 homers in 507 at-bats). There is no way Alonso finds playing time at first base unless Joey Votto gets injured and Jonny Gomes has held his own in left field this season. Needless to say, playing time will be an issue.

 

Brewers called up Mat Gamel—Gamel was everyone’s favorite roto prospect in 2009, but he failed to meet expectations. This season at Triple-A, Gamel has proven two things: One, he can still rake (.304/.388/.496 with 27 home runs in 359 at-bats). Two, he still can’t field (17 errors in 83 games). Unless someone needs rest down the stretch—maybe Braun—Gamel isn’t going to see enough playing time to make an impact, but monitor his situation this offseason.

 

Blue Jays called up J.P. Arencibia—So his Major League debut was too good to be true. That doesn’t detract from the fact that he still has 20-plus home run potential in the long run. He should see ample time behind the dish down the stretch and is a welcomed addition to any team in need of help at catcher.

 

Mets called up Jenrry Mejia—Starting the season in the Mets bullpen, this 20-year-old was able to display his top-end stuff, but was also not being allowed to progress as a starter. His time with the Mets didn’t last long as they wised up and sent him down to the farm and as a starting pitcher. Mejia spent most of his time at Double-A where he posted a very solid 8.6 K/9 and a decent 3.4 BB/9. His stuff is simply electric, which makes him one of the better long-term prospects around. As for the rest of this season, he is a perfect arm to stream against good matchups (as in against the Cubs this Saturday).

 

Mets called up Lucas Duda—A monster of a man (6’5″, 240 pounds), Duda has been a disappointment since his days as a prospect at USC. This season, however, the Mets seventh round gamble in 2007 has finally started to pay off. Duda was hitting .304/.398/.569 with 23 home runs in 425 at-bats between double and Triple-A this season. With the departure of Jeff Francoeur to Texas, Duda could see some major playing time down the stretch. His plate discipline is advanced for his power profile and could make him a big-time sleeper in September.

 

Orioles called up Nolan Reimold—With a revolving door between first base and left field, Nolan Reimold may have a chance to get some decent playing time and hit a few home runs in September. Reimold was a big sleeper pick almost across the board in fantasy circles before this season. An injury to his Achilles late last season seems to have affected him well into 2010, but the upside is still there.

 

Indians called up Carlos Carrasco—After an up and down season in 2009, Carlos Carrasco has put himself back on the top prospect map with a solid showing at Triple-A this season. His 8 K/9 and 2 BB/9 rates at triple a show enough potential to make a mixed league impact. He’s still only 23 years old.

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12
Aug/10

Top 15 Fantasy Baseball Keeper Rankings: Second Base

by under MLB

The keeper rankings at second base go deep, but they are also filled with players who’s projectability is cloudy at best.

Note: These are NOT rankings for 2010. The focus is on long-term keeper values, looking first toward the next 4-5 years and then some prospects that could be moving up this charts during those seasons.

 

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10
Aug/10

Top 15 Fantasy Baseball Keepers: First Base

by under MLB
Unlike the catcher position, which lacks depth and stability, first base is very deep and filled with players in or around their prime seasons. Who’s the number one keeper and who is losing value as the years go by?
Note: These are NOT rankings for 2010. The focus is on long-term keeper values, looking first toward the next four to five years and then some prospects that could be moving up this charts during those seasons.

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8
Aug/10

Top 15 Fantasy Baseball Keepers: Catcher

by under MLB

The great thing about keeper leagues is that whether you’re in it or out of it, you still need to keep an eye out for the future. So, today marks day one of the long-term keeper rankings position-by-position.

 

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5
Aug/10

Fantasy Baseball: Three Disappointing Hitters To Buy Low

by under MLB
Every season has its share of surprises and disappointments, but some players play so far below expectations that they are tossed away to the darkest places on your free agent wire or oppositions’ roster. However, as the season continues marching toward September, some players begin to emerge from the darkness. By the way, what ever happened to The Darkness ?

These three players represent the biggest of the busts (think clean thoughts people), but they also represent some hope for a late season’s surge.
Using Yahoo! owned percentages

 
Aaron Hill – 75 percent
Hill’s monstrous 2009 performance has been followed up by a miserable .211/.286/.390 line to this point. However, the power numbers have still been quite good and ZiPS projects seven more home runs this season, which would give Hill 23 by season’s end. The problem has been a severe lack of line drives. For most of the season, Hill’s line drive rate was sitting around an extremely low nine percent. That rate has been trending in the right direction over the last month or so.

 

In July, Hill raised his line drive rate to 15 percent, which is still not good, but an improvement. In 15 at-bats so far this month, Hill is 6-for-15 with two home runs.
If you need a second baseman, with some potential to put up good power numbers over the season’s final two months (Hill hit seven home runs in May), then try buying low on Hill before he really gets his home runs swing working.

 
Pablo Sandoval – 88 percent
Sandoval is a free swinger, we all know that, but he is a very good contact hitter. Last season, Sandoval got by with his free swinging ways. A .350 BABIP with only an 18 percent line drive rate helped in that regard, but this season his hacking ways have made him a fantasy bust.

Last season, Kung Fu Panda swung at pitches outside the strike-zone almost 42 percent of the time. That is an astonishingly high chase rate, but this season Sandoval is going after even more bad pitches (44 percent). Clearly, as the results continued to turn out negative, Sandoval lost some of his confidence. As a result, Sandoval has been less aggressive on pitches in the strike-zone.

Swinging at fewer good pitches and more bad pitches is never a good thing.

(O-Sw = Swings at pitches outside the strike-zone, Z-Sw = Swings at pitches inside the strike-zone)

Season

O-Sw %

Z-Sw %

2009

41.7%

83.0%

2010

44.1%

77.1%
This approach has led to a very low 16.7 percent line drive rate, but just like Aaron Hill (even more so than Aaron Hill), Sandoval is showing signs of regaining his stroke.

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In July, Sandoval maintained a 20 percent line drive rate. Despite hitting more line drives, Sandoval’s BABIP was only .286. If Sandoval can continue to hit line drives and has a bit more luck in BABIP, there is a chance his AVG and confidence rises over these last two months. We’ve all seen how big his potential is.

Matt Wieters – 71 percent
Every now and again I hear someone at a ballgame or bar yell out the line from Old School, “You’re my boy Blue!” It’s been almost two full seasons since I first got on the Weiters train and still to this day, every once and a while, and not as loud, I say to myself, “You’re my boy Matt. You’re my boy.”

There have been times when it felt like Weiters had left this earth as I couldn’t seem to find him in any highlights or any statistical leader boards. But things started to shift a little last month and the plate discipline that I loved from his minor league days may have returned.

A look at Weiters’ overall numbers makes me cringe. A .258 AVG and eight home runs doesn’t spark much enthusiasm, but in July Wieters hit .289 and drew eight walks to only three strikeouts in 54 plate appearances. Also in July, Wieters held a season high 23.3 percent line drive rate.

He simply looks more comfortable and confident at the plate and his upside is among the best in the game. If you need to make a move for a catcher and want to buy low, Wieters might just be the man for the job.

Charlie Saponara is the owner/author of FantasyBaseball365.com and can be contacted at cs.fb365@gmail.com .  You can follow FB365 on Twitter .  Charlie also writes for Fire Brand of the American League and Project Prospect .

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4
Aug/10

Mr. 600: Will A-Rod’s Contract Be the Worst in Baseball History?

by under MLB
On Wednesday, August 4th 2010, Alex Rodriguez became only the seventh player in Major League history to hit 600 or more home runs and the youngest player in history to reach the 600 home run mark.

 

Minutes later, no one really cares.

 

Rodriguez is one of the premier faces of baseball’s steroid era. As an admitted user, his stats will forever be looked upon with shadows and questions of validity.

 

Beyond what A-Rod has done, is what he will do. Without the aid (supposedly) of performance enhancing drugs going forward and closing in on back-to-back sub-par seasons, will A-Rod’s future performance be worth the seven years remaining on the 10-year, $275 million dollar contract he signed in December of 2007? Or will this contract, which has him playing at the age of 42, go down as the worst in baseball history?

 

This season, A-Rod is making a base salary of $32 million. However, by smacking home run number 600, he will receive an additional $6 million, bringing the total bill to $38 million.

 

To this point in 2010, A-Rod has delivered career lows in AVG, OBP, SLG, and stolen bases (not counting his 149 plate appearances in 1995). His total production this season has been worth two wins above replacement . He’ll have to be explosively hot over the season’s final two months to even come close to actually earning the $38 million he is on the books for this year.

 

What about the future? A-Rod is 35 years old and his body is already showing signs of breaking down. Last season, A-Rod had labrum surgery on his hip, which kept him out through May. This season, A-Rod has missed time due to tendinitis in his hip as well as a groin strain.
This wouldn’t be the first time an alleged steroid user’s production fell off partly due to his body breaking down and partly due to a decline in skills (though A-Rod has admitted to his use of PEDs).

 

Sammy Sosa hit .253/.332/.517 with 35 home runs in his age 35 season. He would only play 114 games combined over the next three seasons—Sosa did not play in 2006—before he was out of baseball all together. The 2005 season, the same season Sosa’s numbers sharply declined, was 41-year-old Rafael Palmeiro’s final season.

 

After hitting 38 home runs in 2003, Palmeiro hit only 23 in 154 games in 2004 and only 18 the following season in 110 games. Ken Caminiti, who admitted to steroid use after his retirement, ran into a rash of injury issues over his last few seasons.

 

Perhaps the only difference between these three players and A-Rod is that none had as much natural ability as Rodriguez did.

 

As another way to compare the numbers, the true all-time home run king, Hank Aaron, hit .300/.396/.607 (1.003 OPS) with 44 home runs at A-Rod’s current age of 35. That season, Aaron was worth 8.1 wins above replacement. Aaron would go on to hit 38, 47, 34 and 40 home runs the following four seasons before declining at age 40.

 

One of the most amazing things to consider with those home run totals is the at bats in which Aaron needed to hit them. From 1970 through 1973 Aaron would see a decrease in games played and at bats each year, yet the home runs numbers never suffered. In 1973, it took Aaron only 392 at bats to hit 40 home runs, or one home run every 9.8 at bats.

 

Unlike Aaron, as a pure hitter, Alex Rodriguez is showing signs of decline at his current age regardless of home run totals and results of balls in play.

 

To this point in the 2010 season, A-Rod’s walk rate is his lowest in 10 seasons and he is chasing pitches outside the strike-zone more frequently than he ever has (since that stat has been recorded). Not only has his discipline worsened, but he has turned from a power hitter to a more contact oriented hitter.

 

A-Rod has been striking out less frequently this season, yes, but it has come at the expense of driving the baseball. His contact rate, if it should hold over the final two-months, would be his highest ever. Normally this would be a good thing, but when A-Rod does make contact, more often than not, he’s not making very good contact.

 

A-Rod’s line drive rate this season sits at an extremely low 15.5 percent. Not that A-Rod was ever an elite line drive hitter (his career line drive rate is 18 percent, 20 percent has been about league average), but when you don’t hit line drives and you don’t hit a large amount of home runs, it is extremely difficult to maintain a decent AVG. Such has been the case this season.

 

Is it the injuries that have changed A-Rod’s approach at the plate? Perhaps, but that doesn’t exactly bode well for future projections as he enters his age 36 and beyond seasons.

 

The outlook for A-Rod’s offensive projections is not as bright as it used to be and his defense is not getting any better either.

 

According to advanced defensive metrics, A-Rod has been a sub-par third baseman since 2005. Both UZR and Total Zone , for the most part, have had A-Rod pegged with negative ratings . Considering the hip injury and his age, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of hope that A-Rod’s future defense will be much better, which further decreases his overall value.

 

In essence, what we have is a 35-year-old former steroid user showing declining skills both at the plate and in the field.

 

If we are looking at this 10-year, $275 million dollar contract in the context of the Yankees and their ability to stretch payroll further than any other franchise in baseball, we could easily justify it by assuming how little significance $20 million will be to the payroll in 2016 and 2017.

 

However, if we are judging this contract based solely on how much a franchise pays a player and what return they get on that investment, regardless of payroll, it’s hard to imagine A-Rod being a $20 million dollar player at age 40, 41, and 42. At this point it is even a little hard to imagine A-Rod being a $31 million dollar player next season or a $29 million dollar player in 2012 and so on.

 

There are many bad baseball contracts out there right now. As the a team like the Cubs desperately tries to rid themselves of the Alfonso Soriano money, the Yankees have the luxury of not worrying about what they pay A-Rod. However, a bad deal is a bad deal and A-Rod may end up making the Yankees pay for the inflated numbers of his past rather than numbers that will help them win in the future.

 

Unless this season is just a fluke and somehow A-Rod manages to turn the clock back a few years as he ages into his upper 30s, this is going to go down as possibly the worst contract in baseball history and A-Rod as the game’s most over-payed player ever. 

 

 

All Contract info via Cot’s Contracts

 

Charlie Saponara is the owner/author of fantasybaseball365.com and can be contacted at cs.fb365@gmail.com .  Follow FB365 on Twitter .  You can also find his contributions on ProjectProspect.com .

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3
Aug/10

Fantasy Baseball: Peter Bourjos Accelerates into Anaheim

by under MLB
In an interesting move the Angels have called up one of their top prospects, apparently to play center field. Yes, the center field that has been roamed by all-star Torii Hunter since the failed Gary Matthews Jr. signing.
 

 

The speedy outfielder is not ultra-hyped Mike Trout, but rather 23-year-old speedster Peter Bourjos .
 

 

Baseball America ranked Bourjos as the Angels second best prospect this pre-season and Baseball Prospectus had him ranked seventh. His biggest asset is his speed, which is part of the reason the Angels have apparently decided to start him in center and move Torii Hunter to right. All reports I have read on his defense and baserunning have been excellent.

 

 
Coming off of a solid season at double-A in 2009 (.281/.354/.423, 32 SB), Bourjos has spent 2010 at triple-A Salt Lake and continued to show improvements in his plate discipline. Before his call-up, Bourjos was hitting .314/.364/.498 with 13 home runs and 27 stolen bases in 455 plate appearances. The plate discipline and stolen base potential are for real, but the 13 home runs may be a bit inflated by playing in Salt Lake and the Pacific Coast League in general.

 

 

There aren’t many stolen base threats likely available on your free agent wire, so Bourjos represents an opportunity to take a flier for that category if needed. While expectations for a .300-plus AVG with some power are probably a bit too high, anything can happen and the Angels should let him run when he gets on base.

 

 

 

According to an ESPN report , playing time shouldn’t be too much of an issue as the Angels fall further behiind the Rangers in the AL West.

 

 

They’re unlikely to promote Bourjos, 23, to be a bench player since it could stunt his development. “Every young player needs to play,” Scioscia said.

Every young player needs to play, eh Mike? Was that your take on Brandon Wood for the past three seasons?

 

Charlie Saponara is the owner/author of fantasybaseball365.com and can be contacted at cs.fb365@gmail.com .  Follow FB365 on Twitter . 

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27
Jul/10

Top Five Fantasy Baseball Keepers for the 2011 Season

by under MLB
I received a tweet the other day asking for my top five keepers for next season. Honestly, that had not been something that was on my mind just yet, but it is a relevant question for teams looking to rebuild for 2011.

How I understand the question, the goal is to basically come up with the top five players in next year’s draft since we’re talking about 2011 and not 2012 and so on. So, for today’s drill were going to focus on the top five players for 2011 and disregard long-term values—though striving to find players in or entering their prime is part of this equation anyway—as not every keeper league allows for players to be kept long term. However, in the coming days I’ll be dwelling into long-term values as well.

 
Top Five for 2011
Note: wOBA is not a stat I use a lot for fantasy baseball, but it is a valuable one in looking at the progression or regression of a hitter. You can read more about it from these links .

 
1. Miguel Cabrera

Season

Age

BB%

K%

OPS

ISO

LD%

BABIP

wOBA

2010

27

11.5%

17.4%

1.067

0.300

19.3%

0.362

0.444

2009

26

9.9%

17.5%

0.942

0.223

20%

0.348

0.402

2008

25

8.2%

20.5%

0.887

0.245

19.3%

0.310

0.376
This three-year progression for Cabrera has been almost the exact model of how a player enters their supposed prime at age 27. He is currently the best overall hitter in baseball, trumping the amazing Pujols, which is an amazing statement in itself. Cabrera has improved his BB/K rate while hitting the ball harder than ever before in his career.

Cabrera is on pace to set career highs in ISO (Isolated power) and SLG (Slugging Percentage) as well as challenge for the triple crown. He’s still only 27-years-old and right at the start of his prime seasons.

 
2. Albert Pujols

Season

Age

BB%

K%

OPS

ISO

LD%

BABIP

wOBA

2010

30

15.3%

13.3%

0.653

0.261

18%

0.340

0.458

2009

29

16.4%

11.3%

0.658

0.331

15.6%

0.299

0.449

2008

28

16.2%

10.3%

0.561

0.296

22.4%

0.290

0.403
Interestingly, in some categories Pujols has shown a three-year regression (though this season is not over yet, so no numbers are final). Most notable is the drop in OPS and wOBA. Not shown in the chart above is that Pujols has been chasing more pitches outside the strike-zone this season while showing a three-year regression in contact rate.

These are intriguing trends, but Pujols is still putting up MVP type numbers despite them. While there has been whispers about Pujols’ true age, the official information says that he’ll be 31-years-old in 2011, which is a plateau stage of a hitter’s career. With that in mind, we should expect continued top-level production from Pujols next season.

 
3. Joey Votto

Season

Age

BB%

K%

OPS

ISO

LD%

BABIP

wOBA

2010

26

14.6%

19.4%

1.007

0.277

18.2%

0.340

0.431

2009

25

12.9%

22.6%

0.981

0.245

21.7%

0.372

0.418

2008

24

10.0%

22.8%

0.874

0.209

25.2%

0.328

0.373
2011 could be a huge season for Joey Votto as everything seems to be lining up perfectly. Votto is hitting at the prime age of 27 in 2011 (he’ll be 27 this September) and he has a three year track record of progression in BB/K rate, ISO and OPS. He plays his home games in a great hitter’s park and until this season, had shown no problems with hitting left-handed pitching. There’s no reason to think Votto can’t improve on an already MVP-like 2010.

 
4. Evan Longoria

Season

Age

BB%

K%

OPS

ISO

LD%

BABIP

wOBA

2010

24

12.0%

21.3%

0.883

0.208

21.5%

0.337

0.383

2009

23

10.7%

24.0%

0.889

0.245

20.0%

0.313

0.380

2008

22

9.1%

27.2%

0.874

0.259

19.8%

0.309

0.373
The drop in power this season may have fantasy owners a bit concerned, but given his age and progression as a hitter overall, I’m not worried about it becoming a trend in 2011 and beyond. Longoria has made great improvements in his raw hitting skills such as BB/K rate and line drive rate.

He is hitting fly balls at a slightly higher rate than he did last season, yet his HR/FB rate has dropped 6.5 percent. There is a very good chance that his HR/FB numbers jump back up in 2011 and the 35-plus home run potential returns.

Even with a decline in home runs, Longoria is on pace to set a career high in doubles and has been able to maintain an OPS and wOBA over .880 for the past two seasons.

Longoria will enter 2011 at an age (25) where he should continue to improve as he enters his prime. While the stolen base numbers won’t get much better than they are this season, his power and AVG combo combined with a valuable fantasy position (third base) should make him an easy first rounder for years to come.


5. Robinson Cano

Season

Age

BB%

K%

OPS

ISO

LD%

BABIP

wOBA

2010

27

4.1%

11.8%

0.942

0.226

18.6%

0.333

0.397

2009

26

4.5%

9.9%

0.871

0.199

19.9%

0.324

0.370

2008

25

7.8%

10.9%

0.715

0.139

19.4%

0.283

0.307
There has been much said and written about the maturity of Robinson Cano. He has always been incredibly talented, but sometimes that didn’t shine through due to a lackluster work ethic. Well, those days are long gone now as Cano has not only improved his game at the plate, but defensively as well (his UZR/150 stands at 9.1 for this season).

The biggest change in his offensive game has been patience as reflected in the big jump in walk rate. Cano is seeing slightly more pitches per at-bat this season and has swung at the first pitch 31 percent of the time as opposed to 34 percent last season and as much as 39 percent back in 2006.

Cano is still an aggressive hitter, swinging at over 30 percent of pitches outside the strike-zone, but he has incredible contact skills. When Cano sees a pitch that he likes inside the strike-zone, he makes contact on about 95 percent of his swings and that has been the case since his rookie season.

The last part of the equation is Cano’s ability to adjust to his environment, specifically the short porch in Yankee Stadium. At home, Cano is a .316 hitter that puts the ball in the air 39.4 percent of the time while hitting line drives at a 16 percent clip. On the road, Cano is a .342 hitter with a lower fly ball rate and a 21.3 percent line drive rate.

Cano H/R Splits

AVG

LD%

FB%

HR/FB

ISO

2010 Home

0.316

16.0%

39.4%

15.9%

.260

2010 Road

0.342

21.3%

33.9%

12.7%

.190
Cano is smack in the middle of his prime years and should continue to provide a .310-plus AVG with 20-plus home runs along with the high totals of runs and RBI that come with hitting in that stacked Yankee lineup.

 
Just missed: Carl Crawford, David Wright, Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Upton

Charlie Saponara is the owner/author of fantasybaseball365.com and can be contacted at cs.fb365@gmail.com .  Follow FB365 on Twitter . 

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26
Jul/10

Stealing Dan Haren in Real Life and in Fantasy Baseball

by under MLB
When I got back into town last night, my friend picked me up from the airport and informed me of a trade that had just gone down between the Angels and Diamondbacks. Dan Haren had been sent to the Angels in exchange for starting pitchers Joe Saunders, Tyler Skaggs, Patrick Corbin, and reliever Rafael Rodriguez.
There has been plenty analysis of the trade today and I’ll leave that to the likes of Keith Law. Instead, I’ll just say that the Angels essentially stole Dan Haren away from the D-Backs and you should follow suit if his fantasy owner is still fretting over a 4.60 ERA and bad career second half numbers.
Haren Headed to Anaheim
Despite his high ERA this season, Dan Haren has continued to show extremely strong peripheral numbers. He has struck out nine batters per nine innings, good for 12th best in baseball (minimum 80 IP), while walking only 1.85 per nine innings, good for 13th best in baseball. That K/BB rate (4.86) ties him with Josh Johnson for the fourth best in baseball. Haren ranked ninth best in FB365’s latest updated RAW Pitcher Ratings . 
The problem with Haren this season has been home runs allowed, which currently stands at a career worst 1.47 per nine innings. His BABIP against has also been an issue, currently sitting at an inflated .350 despite a 20.3 percent line drive rate allowed, the same line drive rate he finished with last season.

There may have been fewer better places in baseball for Haren to have landed than in Anaheim. According to Stat Corner , Angel Stadium represses home runs (a score of 100 is neutral and Angel Stadium’s score is 94). This is especially true during night games, when the marine layer rolls in from the coast.

The Angels currently have two fly-ball pitchers on their staff that have succeeded despite above average fly ball rates. The most notable is Jered Weaver (career 48.5 percent fly ball rate and 8.2 HR/FB rate) and Ervin Santana (career 43.6 percent fly ball rate and 9.8 HR/FB rate).
Dan Haren currently holds a 38.9 percent fly ball rate and a career worst 13.9 percent HR/FB rate). Despite having a track record of worse numbers in the season’s second half, Haren is almost certain to see a decline in HR/FB rate and BABIP pitching in Anaheim.
There is, of course, the issue of moving from the National League to the American League. However, Haren had plenty of success as a young maturing pitcher in the AL West before he was traded to Arizona. He also caries big-time strikeout potential, which should also help offset pitching in the American League.
The bottom line: Haren is still a dominant pitcher and one that has every chance to provide value in every pitching category (saves aside). Use his 4.60 ERA and move to the American League as reasons your opposing fantasy owner should deal Haren to your club.
Going to Arizona
Joe Saunders is the “big name” heading to Arizona, but he is hardly the key piece to the equation. Saunders has had exactly one above average season in the Major Leagues and that one season can somewhat be cast off as a fluke (1.94 K/BB rate, .267 BABIP).
Also, his line drive rates have been increasing every season since 2008. Saunders is not a big strikeout pitcher (well below average actually) so the move to the National League won’t benefit him as much. He also moves from a pitchers park to one of the best hitters parks in baseball. Having allowed 1.09 home runs per nine innings over his career in a home park that suppresses home runs leads me to believe that the home run ball will become an even bigger issue in his new home.
To me, the key name in this deal for Arizona is Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs is a 19-year-old lefty that stands at a lanky 6’4″. I was able to see him pitch once this year and was thoroughly impressed. His mechanics are sound and he uses his leverage very nicely upon releasing the ball. His fastball is currently sitting in the 89-91 mph range, but most reports point toward his velocity increasing to the 92 mph range as his body matures.
His fastball was clearly dominating opposing Midwest League hitters (aside from Twins top prospect Aaron Hicks, who took him deep in the first inning) while his curve ball looked like a sharp 12-to-6 hammer, an already plus offering. Coming into this season, Skaggs wasn’t ranked as a top five prospect in the Angels system, but he has about as much project-ability as anyone.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him turn into a solid number two starter if everything goes right. If not, he should still be a very solid mid-rotation arm and a fine prospect in dynasty leagues and minor league roster keeper leagues.
Patrick Corbin is putting up some nice numbers this season, but from what I’ve gathered about his pure “stuff”, he doesn’t have close to the same ceiling as Skaggs. Corbin, who just turned 21 this month, is also a left-handed starter. He features a 88-91 mph fastball with good sink and command.
However, reports about his secondary offerings have been less faltering. He’ll need to come up with a true strikeout pitch, like Skaggs’ curveball, to keep his strikeout totals high at the upper-levels.
The reliever, Rafael Rodriguez (25-years-old), has bounced between the majors and minors for the past two seasons and projects as that type of pitcher going forward.
This deal should be both good for the Angels and Dan Haren owners not only the rest of this season, but for the next two-to-three years.
Charlie Saponara is the owner/author of fantasybaseball365.com and can be contacted at cs.fb365@gmail.com .  Follow FB365 on Twitter .

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16
Jul/10

Dontrelle Willis’s Windy Road Needs To End in the Bullpen

by under MLB

After being released by both the Tigers and Diamondbacks already this season, the San Francisco Giants have given Dontrelle Willis another chance, signing him to a minor league deal today .

 

In 2003, a 21-year-old kid with an infectious smile and quirky delivery took the league by storm while helping the Florida Marlins win their second World Series.

 

That season, Willis struck out 142 batters in 160 innings pitched while going 14-6.  On top of a World Series ring, Willis made his first of two All-Star teams and won the National League Rookie of the Year award.

 

Willis would have a few more good seasons with the Marlins, but none better than his 2005 season. That year Willis won 22 games to only 10 loses and posted a carrier best 3.09 K/BB rate.

 

In 2005, Willis posted the lowest walk rate of his career (2.09 walks per nine innings pitched), but he would never again come close to that success.

 

In 2007, only two years removed from 22 wins and a career best K/BB rate, Willis posted a 5.17 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and his highest walk rate as a member of the Marlins.

 

It would be his last season in south Florida.

 

That following winter, Willis was traded along side Marlins teammate Miguel Cabrera to the Detroit Tigers for top prospect Cameron Maybin and five other minor leaguers.

 

That was when Willis lost his control completely, both with his pitches and his mental approach.

 

After only 11.1 innings with his new club, Willis had walked 21 opposing hitters and allowed 13 earned runs.

 

Willis, the pitcher with the infectious smile and quirky delivery, wasn’t smiling anymore and his delivery was more out of whack than ever.

 

The Tigers then sent him down to single-A, about as far from Detroit as they could get him.

 

The move was made to allow Willis time to not only work on his control problems, but also to work on his mental state. 

 

Nothing changed during the rest of his tenure in Detroit as the strikeout rates went down and the walk rates stayed obscenely high.

 

The Arizona Diamondbacks decided to give Willis a shot, acquiring him via trade.  His time in Arizona lasted for 22.1 innings, 27 walks, 14 strikeouts and 17 earned runs.

 

Having been released by the Diamondbacks, Willis was free to sign with any team willing to give him a shot.  The San Francisco Giants were that team.

 

Willis will begin his journey in Fresno, CA, the Giants’ triple-A affiliate.  If the Giants are smart, he’ll be a part of the Grizzlies’ bullpen, not starting rotation.

 

At this point in his career, Willis has proven that he can no longer stay effective as a starting pitcher. However, he has two things going for him that a team could use to their advantage.

 

First, Willis is still tough on left-handed hitters.  This season, even with all of his struggles, Willis has struck out 12.86 left-handed hitters per nine innings pitched and held them to a .213 AVG against.  In 86 left-handed batters faced this season, 16 have base hits with only two going for doubles and only one going for a home run.

 

Second, his velocity should improve in one-inning stints.  In his last outing, Willis’s fastball topped out at 91 mph.  In his first start with the Diamondbacks, Willis topped out at 93 mph.  While he has averaged a fastball around 88 mph, one would have to believe that a one inning “max effort” role would produce consistent speeds in the low 90’s.

 

There have been plenty of starting pitchers with control issues who have been converted into relievers and found much more success.  One that has current relevance is Arthur Rhodes.

 

Rhodes started his Major League career as a starter.  One look at his early walk rates clearly show that he had big problems with control as his walks per nine innings pitched were consistently in the five-plus range.

 

Then, in 1996, the Orioles used Rhodes almost exclusively as a reliever.  The following season Rhodes made 53 appearances, all out of the bullpen.  He struck out 102 hitters in 95.1 innings while only walking 26 and posting a 3.02 ERA.

 

In 1997, Arthur Rhodes was 27 years old.  Dontrelle Willis is still only 28 years old.

 

It’s time to stop living in the past.  Yes, Willis was the Rookie of the Year as a starting pitcher in 2003 and yes, he finished 11th in MVP voting in 2005, but those days are dead and gone.

 

If Willis goes to Fresno and develops as a shut down left-handed specialist, think of how valuable that could be for the Giants during the stretch run when rosters expand in September.    Starting pitching is not their problem.

 

It has been a long and windy road for Dontrelle Willis.  However, teams would not continue to give him chance after chance if he didn’t still have some pretty good “stuff”.

 

Take that pure “stuff,” harness it into a one inning “max effort” role, and maybe, just maybe, Willis can dominate once again.

 

Well, dominate lefties at least.

 

Charlie Saponara is the owner/author of fantasybaseball365.com and can be contacted at cs.fb365@gmail.com .  Follow FB365 on Twitter . 

 

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