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2011 MLB Season: The Top 10 Prospects Ready To Make an Impact

With the offseason in full swing and free agents already relocating to different area codes, the younger unproven players are working hard to show their respective major league clubs that they are prepared for a role on the major league roster in the 2011 season. 

After Giants rookie Buster Posey played a significant part in the San Francisco’s World Series Championship this past year, these rookies hope to prove that they can make just as much of an impact for their team just as quickly.  Although it is common that most prospects do not reach their potential or make the impact their clubs hoped for, these minor leaguers have the possibility to make some impact in the big leagues, whether at the beginning of the season or after the All-Star break. 

With the 2011 season already on the minds of prospects across the nation, here are 10 prospects that you should look out for at the beginning of spring training.

 

1. Dustin Ackley (Seattle Mariners)

Ackley, the number two overall pick in 2009, is one of the highest rated prospects in baseball by Baseball America and was recently named MVP of the Arizona Fall League.  He got off to a terrible start in his first season in the minors, but tore up Arizona, batting .424 with a .518 on-base-percentage. 

Coming out of the University of North Carolina, Ackley was an outfielder and eventually made the switch to first base.  Eventually, he made a second switch to second base and has some defensive progress to make, particularly his footwork on his double plays and positioning when fielding. 

Offensively, however, his potential is slowly coming to fruition, and he has the potential to make an immediate impact for Seattle, even if he doesn’t hit .300 in his first year.  His ability to hit line drives, draw walks, and see a lot of pitches will likely earn him a spot on the roster sooner rather than later. 

With the Mariners not likely to compete for a playoff spot, and with no mainstay at second base on the roster, Ackley’s patient approach and speed will likely get him a look somewhere at the top of their lineup.

 

2. Jesus Montero (New York Yankees)

Montero is a prospect who most fans will recognize, as he was the centerpiece for the rumored Cliff Lee trade to the Yankees during the season.  The Yankees have other promising catchers like Francisco Cervelli, Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez, but the one with the best offensive potential is Montero. In 123 games, Montero hit .289 with 21 homers, 75 runs batted in, and a .353 on-base percentage, but after the All-Star break, batted .351 with 14 homers.

The challenge for Montero is on the defensive end.  He still has trouble shifting behind the plate and keeping his body nimble. More importantly, he must stay in shape and keep himself motivated.  If he can handle the running game, however, the Yankees can continue to work with him on passed balls at the major league level. 

With Posada moving to DH for the majority of the season, Montero and Cervelli could play most of the time behind the plate in 2011.  Once Posada retires, Montero could move into the DH spot and split time behind the plate with Romine, who is the superior defensive catcher. 

 

3. Hank Conger (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim)

Conger has made major strides with his defense in the Angels organization, throwing out 30 percent of base stealers and allowing only three passed balls. A true switch-hitter, Conger’s strength is against left-handed pitching. His walk to strikeout ratio was almost 1:1 this past season, and he knows the strike zone well for a young player. 

Defensively, Conger has some work to do.  His 14 errors (11 throwing errors) this past season will likely not get him full-time duties behind the plate when the season begins, but he has showed the mobility and arm strength to limit passed balls and stolen bases. 

With Mike Scioscia guiding him, no stalwart at catcher to impede his path to the majors, and his improved patience, Conger has the potential to be a surprisingly solid catcher in the majors immediately.

 

4. Mike Moustakas (Kansas City Royals)

A former No. 2 overall pick, out of Chatsworth Highschool, Moustakas hit 21 homers and 76 RBIs along with a .347 average and an on-base percentage of about .400 this past season.  After being promoted to Triple-A, he continued his hot-hitting by batting nearly.300 with 15 homers and 58 RBI.  With the Royals still in rebuilding mode, he could quickly step in at third base next year and become a nice addition to a lineup that includes first round picks Billy Butler and left-fielder Alex Gordon.  

Moustakas prides himself on making solid contact, not striking out, and walking at an above average rate. He has the potential to be a middle of the lineup 30 home run hitter while also hitting for a .285 average.  His power numbers have been stunted somewhat because he played in a pitcher’s park during the 2009 season.  There is little question, however, that Moustakas has the power to make an impact on the major league level this year. 

 

5. Kyle Drabek (Toronto Blue Jays)

Drabek is one of the many young talented pitchers the Blue Jays will have on their roster in 2011.  After Tommy John surgery, Drabek quickly bounced back and has not shown any lingering issues as of yet.  His short stint in the majors this past season gave fans that haven’t seen him a quick look as to how good he can be.

Likely a future No. 2 starter, Drabek has one of the best curveballs in the minors, and his movement and command of it is what makes him dangerous.  The pure definition of a 12-6 curveball, it will likely be his out pitch all year. 

The issue for Drabek is his lack of movement on his four-seam fastball.  If he can generate movement on the fastball and keep his strikeout to walk ratio down, he could easily become a top candidate for Rookie of the Year. 

Although the American League East is a hard place to begin your career, Drabek has the talent to be a 15-win, below 3.50 E.R.A. pitcher.

 

6. Desmond Jennings (Tampa Bay Rays)

Jennings is the most likely prospect to get the most playing time next year.  With Carl Crawford likely leaving via free agency, Jennings could provide the Rays lineup with Crawford-type potential.  A balanced hitter with a quick stroke, Jennings is a pure gap-to-gap hitter. He consistently stays behind the ball and drives it to the opposite field and is very adept at making solid contact.

On inside pitches, Jennings pulls with his front side and bottom hand to open up and reach the pitch.  This could quickly give him trouble if fastballs are located in on his hands.  With some minor adjustments to cover all areas of the strike zone, however, Jennings should be the lead candidate for Rookie of the Year.

 

7. Michael Pineda (Seattle Mariners)

Pineda is one of the tallest prospects in the minors, and he should be able to take advantage of that height by releasing the ball closer to the plate. Pineda usually throws in the mid-90s and can approach 100+ mph when he goes full throttle. By throwing a fastball that fast from a high release point, this pitch should generate a lot of swinging strikes.  

Pineda’s slider needs some work, however, as it should have more horizontal movement.  It’s rare that you find a young prospect like Pineda capable of throwing 66 percent strikes in AAA.  If Pineda fails to meet expectations, a big reason could be struggles against left-handed hitters.

His elbow injury that ended his 2009 season may also become a major concern, but he seems to have calmed any present worries.  Despite the concerns, Pineda’s strikeout potential does not come around and will likely get him a spot on the big league roster to open the season.

 

8. Kyle Gibson (Minnesota Twins)

Gibson was a highly-ranked college starter on every team’s draft board, but during his final season with Missouri, the 6-foot-6 stud right-hander began feeling pain in his right forearm and slipped to the Twins at the 22nd overall pick. Some feared this issue would soon lead to elbow problems and ultimately feared Tommy John surgery.  Gibson was officially diagnosed with a stress fracture in his right forearm. 

Gibson mixes off-speed pitches (sliders and changeups) with a solid fastball with a lot of deception.  His slider is almost identical to his the fastball until it’s already over the plate.  His fastball is nothing spectacular, as it stays in the low 90s, but he uses both sides of the plate.

The impressive thing about Gibson is the fact that he maintained his 3.21 ERA and excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio despite pitching through an injury and playing in a hitter’s park this past season. The young right-hander is probably a name you’ll recognize at the All-Star break, as he could provide the Twins with No. 2 starter potential. 

 

9. Matt Moore (Tampa Bay Rays)

Moore is a name that even Rays’ followers may not recognize.  His arsenal of pitches, however, is impressive and he gets more swings and misses than most minor league pitchers.  His 90-94 mph fastball is already major league ready as is his curveball, which has a very late break.  

Moore’s problem lies with his ability to control the strike zone, especially when throwing his curveball.  If he can locate his curve on a consistent basis and improve his control, he could provide the Rays with a dominant late inning reliever this year and eventually possible front-line starter. The fact that he gets strikeouts at a high rate will likely get him a look in a Tampa Bay bullpen that is likely to lose closer Rafael Soriano.

 

10. Tanner Scheppers (Texas Rangers)

Scheppers has an arm that can consistently generate strikeouts and that will undoubtedly earn him a spot either as a starter or in the bullpen for the Rangers in 2011.  With Cliff Lee possibly departing via free agency and Neftali Feliz possibly shifting from the closing role to the rotation, there should be a spot for the young fire-baller. 

Consistently in the mid-to-upper 90s and even reaching 99 mph in relief appearances, Scheppers has a power slider to accompany his electric slider.  His curveball could be of more use if Texas management decides to use him in the rotation. Scheppers’ health is still a concern after a muscular issue was misdiagnosed as a stress fracture in his pitching shoulder before the 2008 draft.  If his health holds up, he could be a viable replacement for Lee this upcoming season.

 

Honorable Mention*

 

Jared Goedert (Cleveland Indians)

Selected in the ninth round of the 2009 draft, Goedert will likely have a clear path to the majors this season.  This past season, Goedert led the Indians minor league system in walk percentage and on-base percentage. A doubles hitter, Goedert has a consistent swing and stroke that help generate his power. His plate discipline and ability to hit well with two strikes is what gives him the opportunity to be an above average regular in the middle of the infield.  

Fielding is the one area where Goedert must progress since he was recently moved to second base.  His defensive success will be determined by his improvement on his footwork and ability to turn the double play, even though he has an above average arm.

Goedert’s potential offensive production and the rebuilding effort in Cleveland will give him a chance to make an impact this upcoming season possibly to the tune of 15 home runs and 65 RBIs.

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ALDS Begins: Why The Twins Can Topple the Yankees and Surprise the Nation.

In a rematch of one of last year’s American League Division Series’, the Twins and Yankees will square off tonight at Target Field in what is clearly a David v. Goliath battle.  Many have already placed the Bombers in the American League Championship Series either facing the Texas Rangers or Tampa Bay Rays.  However, fans should be mindful that anything can happen in the playoffs and the Yankees of this year are not as stable as the Yankees of last year. 

Rather than striving for home-field advantage manager Joe Girardi decided to rest some of his starters and settled for the Wild Card, giving the Twins an upper hand of which they should take advantage.  The Yankees’ big bats are clearly more potent at home, where Yankee Stadium allows for doubles in most parks to carry into the bleachers.  At Target Field, Minnesota can rely on their gap hitters and base-to-base hitting rather than having to compete with the long ball.  Besides home-field, the Twins as a team also have some pitching and hitting that could provide a threat against New York as they take the field tonight.

The Starting Rotation

The Twins may not have the star quality big-name pitching that the Yankees have, but they do have pitchers that can keep them in the game.  It all begins with 2010 Comeback Player of the Year Francisco Liriano, who unlike last year, is healthy and showing the pitching arsenal that he demonstrated back in 2006 when he looked like the future ace of the Minnesota staff. 

With Alex Rodriguez struggling against lefties for the majority of the season and breakout player Robinson Cano fairing much better against right-handers this season, the rest of the Yankees lineup will have to step up against the young fire-baller.   New York shouldn’t expect too much out of Curtis Granderson or Brett Gardner with both young outfielders batting below 250 against left-handers for the season.  Liriano only allowed 2 runs earlier this season as the Twins lost 3-2 on a Nick Swisher home run late in the game.

Carl Pavano, a former Yankee, didn’t face the Bombers early in the season, but in his two starts since leaving the Yankees Pavano has pitched admirably, only allowing 4 runs in 13 innings to the tune of 2.70 ERA.  The fact that Pavano is at home rather than at Yankee Stadium should help his cause in limiting the Yankees and generating ground balls at a high rate as he has done all season.  Pavano pitched well last postseason against the Yankees and many fans forget that since the Yankees won the game.  It may be different this time around if Andy Pettitte isn’t as sharp as last year.

Brian Duensing, the Game 3 starter is the true definition of a ground ball pitcher.  For Duensing to limit the Yankees the double play will have to be key and he will need to keep the ball down.  If there is anyone that could keep the ball in the park it’s Duensing and the Yankees should be looking to capitalize early on the young lefties fastball or else they could fall pray to his off-speed pitches as the game goes on. 

The fact that the Twins have two left-handers going against New York this series gives them a real shot at limiting the Yankees run support with Yankees slugger Robinson Cano feasting against right-handed pitching this season.

The Lineup

The lineup for the Twins is much stronger last year and much deeper.  Although they don’t have Justin Morneau for the playoffs as they didn’t last year, they still have some hitters that can do some damage.  Unlike the Yankees, the Twins are gap hitters rather than home run hitters,  Last years’ ALDS, the Yankees did not have to face Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson, and J.J. Hardy.  Instead, they faced Orlando Cabrera, Jose Morales and Nick Punto. 

Although the names may be not as recognizable as A-Rod and Jeter, the difference in offensive ability is tremendous.  More importantly, this year, Minnesota outfielder, Delmon Young has finally channeled his god given talent and become a major run producer, driving in over 100 RBIs for the first time in his career.  With little known Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer providing support, the Twins bats aren’t as bad as some may think.

Then of course there is catcher Joe Mauer, the one recognizable Twin who even the average baseball fan will recognize.  Once again Mauer had an All-Star season and despite a drop in his power numbers is one of the best hitters in baseball.  With him behind the plate, the Twins know they will need their leader to step up and take control of this series for the Twins to have any chance versus New York.

The Bullpen

The advantage for Minnesota is clearly the quality depth of their bullpen.  The Yankees will always be able to throw out Mariano Rivera in the 9th and likely eliminate any chance the Twins had of winning, but the rest of the Yankees bullpen is still an uncertainty after an up and down season for most of their relief pitchers.  Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson and a career year out of Boone Logan, who was a perennial 5 ERA pitcher with the White Sox and Braves for the past 4 years.  Kerry Wood, who has had a sparkling ERA has helped spark the Yankees bullpen down the stretch, but his penchant for walking batters when getting behind in the count will be of a major concern in the playoffs and the Twins have opportunistic hitters.

The Twins bullpen has quality spread throughout, but is led by the top 5 of Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, and Matt Capps.  Fuentes, Rauch, and Capps have all been closers at some point in their career, while the latter two have succeeded more recently.  Fuentes has been somewhat erratic against New York, but his lefty pitching will be counted on in the 7th and 8th against Cano, Granderson, and Rodriguez.  Both Crain and Guerrier are the definition of solid relief pitchers.  Neither are going to blow hitters away, but they will get outs when their team needs them.  With a lot of experience and talent the bullpen gives Ron Gardenhire the option to mix and match when in the late innings and if any of the games go to extra innings. 

The Yankees Shortcomings

New York’s shortcomings, may be the biggest reason Minnesota has an opportunity to upset the defending champions.  The “Core 4” haven’t been producing as the have in the past and age may have finally taken its toll.  With Andy Pettitte coming off both groin and back injuries, he will be starting Game 2 after only 4 innings of 9 hit ball in his last outing against a Red Sox team that was fielding mostly minor leaguers.  The rust could easily show itself and put the Yankees behind the 8-ball early in Game 2.  

Derek Jeter has hit more like a bottom of the lineup hitter than a lead-off hitter and hit into more double plays than one could fathom for the future Hall-of-Famer.   Jorge Posada has clearly shown decline both offensively and defensively, with a significant difference hitting at home than on the road.  In September, even Rivera showed some signs of not being at his best, even blowing a few saves, However, out of all of the Yankees heading into the postseason he is still the least likely to make any mistakes. 

Third starter, Phil Hughes will experiencing his first playoff start and has been underwhelming in the second half of the season after putting up Cy Young numbers in the first half.  With average showings against Tampa Bay in his last 2 starts Hughes will need to revert to his first half self in order for New York to avoid a close Game 3.

Possibly the most vital shortcoming could be the Yankees lack of rotation depth, meaning C.C. Sabathia will once again go on 3 days rest.  Although Sabathia was able to do so last year, with success, there is no telling if he could do so again.  Furthermore, he will be pitching at Yankee Stadium in a possible Game 4 and at less than his best that could be dangerous.  If Sabathia begins to wear down and leaves the ball up in the strike zone, Minnesota is exactly the type of team that could capitalize.  Sabathia is hittable if he doesn’t have his best stuff as the Orioles and Rays showed in 3 out of his last 5 games pitched.

*The Yankees lineup still has significantly better talent, but as Yankees’ fans can attest to, the same energy from last year is lacking and players have not been playing up to their career levels.  Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Jorge Posada are all having down years by their standards and new acquisitions outfielder Curtis Granderson and DH Lance Berkman have had years that have led many Yankees fans to question why they were acquired and Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui were allowed to leave via free agency. 

The three Yankees having good to excellent career years, Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher, and Robinson Cano will need to play well.  If Gardner can’t get on base and make his speed a factor, the Yankees will not be nearly as much of a threat as if he can.  Swisher and Cano will need to continue to take advantage of balls up in the strike zone and not look to crush the ball on every pitch.

Although it hasn’t been mentioned as of yet, the most significant, but least noted advantage Minnesota has is at the managerial position.  Although the Yankees won the World Series last year with Girardi, it can easily be stated that they won in spite of him rather than because of him.  Girardi has made more than his fair share of questionable calls with his bullpen and his lineup and managed “not to lose” rather than to win.  Twins fans can breathe easy with Ron Gardenhire at the helm and although this may be a side-note to average fans it could be the difference if the series advances to a Game 5.

If Minnesota does not win one of the first two games the Yankees should eliminate them by Game 4.  However, if they can one of those games a Game 5 at Target Field is not out of the realm of possibility.  The fact that the Yankees are entering the playoffs with only 10 wins in their last 25 games gives the Twins momentum heading into the playoffs.  With a solid, albeit unspectacular rotation, opportunistic gap-to-gap hitters, a deep bullpen, and the Yankees shortcoming the Twinkies could surprise the nation and move on to the ALCS.  Would I bet on it?  Probably not. But would I be surprised?  Not one bit.

 

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