The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will open the season Thursday at Citi Field with both teams looking to forget about the 2011 season.
Both teams come into the 2012 season with high expectations.
The Braves believe they can overtake the Phillies in the division and start a new streak of division titles, while the Mets believe having Johan Santana back in the rotation will give them confidence that they can make it back to the playoffs.
Regardless of what the beliefs are, it all starts Thursday at 1:10 p.m. EST.
Starting Pitching:
Thursday: RHP Tommy Hanson vs. LHP Johan Santana
Hanson gets the Opening Day nod with Tim Hudson on the disabled list to start the season. The right-hander is expected to be the Opening Day starter for years to come, so it’s no surprise manager Fredi Gonzalez gave him the nod here. He’s a strikeout guy that has been known to struggle when he gets behind hitters.If he can keep the count in his favor, he should have success against the Mets’ lineup.
Santana is a bit of a wildcard, since he hasn’t started a regular season game since September 2010. I think it will take a few starts for him to work the kinks out, but by May, he should be back into the All-Star form he once had.
Saturday: RHP Jair Jurrjens vs. RHP R.A. Dickey
Jurrjens had an excellent first half last year, but struggled and was injured in the second half. The Braves tried to trade him in the offseason, but to no avail. It’s obvious Jurrjens is pitching for a contract for the 2014 season, so he’s going to have to impress another team enough to either make a trade for him or pay the money to sign him as a free agent.
Dickey is a knuckleballer that will get you the first time through the lineup. After that, he struggles, so the Mets will need to have a lead by the second or third time through the order.
Sunday: LHP Mike Minor vs. LHP Jon Niese
Minor is officially the No. 5 starter for the Braves, but gets the nod here against a left-handed heavy Mets lineup. He’ll be an exciting pitcher to watch and should keep the Mets’ hitters off-balance.
Niese, on the other hand, is a roller coaster of a pitcher. When he’s on his game, he’s on it real well. But when he’s not, he’ll be out of the game by the fourth inning.
Starting Lineup: (Tentative)
Braves |
Mets |
CF – Michael Bourn
|
CF- Andres Torres |
LF – Martin Prado |
2B – Daniel Murphy |
1B – Freddie Freeman |
3B – David Wright |
C – Brian McCann
|
1B – Ike Davis |
2B – Dan Uggla |
LF – Jason Bay |
RF – Jason Heyward
|
RF – Lucas Duda
|
3B – Juan Francisco |
C – Josh Thole |
SS – Tyler Pastornicky
|
SS – Ruben Tejada |
When looking at the lineup, the Braves have an advantage throughout. At leadoff, they have a guy in Michael Bourn who gets on base more, has more speed and will steal more bases. The only place where the Mets compare to the Braves is at third, fourth and eighth in the order.
David Wright is better in the No. 3 spot than Freddie Freeman, while Ike Davis and Brian McCann are relatively similar at the plate, although Davis can get further on the basepaths with a hit into the gap. And, the only reason Tejada has an edge over Pastornicky is because of the Braves shortstop’s inexperience at the MLB-level. Juan Francisco is a wild card for the Braves because it’s hard to gauge how a new player will mesh with a lineup that had all of spring training to get used to each other.
Bench:
The Braves have the advantage here as well with Jose Constanza, Eric Hinske and Matt Diaz available to pinch hit. The Mets counter with Justin Turner and Ronny Cedeno. Turner might be able to do some damage, but I don’t see much else happening with the Mets bench.
They’re in a tough position considering the ownership situation, so I don’t see much in terms of bench depth coming to Queens anytime soon. But, that’s good news for minor league guys who are looking for a chance to play in the major leagues.
Bullpen:
No comparison. Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch are really it in the Mets bullpen, while the Braves counter with Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Eric O’Flaherty, Kris Medlen and Livan Hernandez. Cristhian Martinez likely could be suspended after DUI). If it gets to the seventh inning and the Braves have the lead, you can pretty much consider the game over.
Prediction:
Braves sweep.
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