Kuzul

In the Yankees‘ world these days, good health is hardly anything to take for granted. But if we’re willing to live in a fantasy world for a moment and employ ceteris paribus, or hold all things constant with good health, the Yankees have to be pleased with the performance of their top three starting pitchers so far.

If CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda can avoid the injury bug, the Yankees will have a very formidable trio atop their rotation. It’s those other pesky two slots in the starting rotation that are causing manager Joe Girardi and the Bombers’ fans agita these days. 

Between homegrown products Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova, the Yankees are in a constant state of wonder and analysis attempting to figure out why their performance varies so greatly from month-to-month and even game-to-game during the course of the season.

In Hughes, the Yankees have a pitcher who seems to fit the description of a fourth or fifth starter reasonably well, particularly in the difficult environs of the American League East. At his best, Hughes is sharp, and can look like a top-of-the-rotation starter.

At his worst and even on average, Hughes can look dismal. His propensity to give up the long ball is well documented and on his bad days, his four-seam fastball is as straight as an arrow. In all likelihood, this is Hughes’ final hurrah in pinstripes.

Hughes has bought himself more room for error due to his longer track record. Even last season, we saw the best and worst of Hughes, but his best is enough reason to believe he’ll rebound from his early poor performances this season and show more of the pitcher we saw for the majority of last summer.

Nova has far less room for error given his track record. Nova arrived in New York in 2010 and has been a member of the starting rotation ever since. It may not seem that way at times, given Nova’s inconsistency and the Yankees’ proclivity to find spare parts and replacements at lightning speed.

Nova has tantalized fans with his pitcher’s frame, high velocity and diverse enough arsenal of pitches to get major league batters out in big spots. He’s pitched some excellent games for the Yankees at times and given his age and positive attitude, he gives just enough reason to believe he’s turning the proverbial corner.

And then THUD, back he falls into mediocrity. It may be a toll the Yankees are simply unwilling to take much longer, perhaps starting as early as tonight. David Phelps is waiting in the wings and at nearly the same age as Nova, has shown more consistency at the big league level, though in far fewer opportunities.

Nova has started 63 games in his big league career and Phelps only 11. But Phelps has shown a calm about him and an ability to throw strikes and have fewer pitches hit out of the yard or even put in play for hits. Phelps’ career batting average against (BAA) is .226 while Nova’s is .273.

Most alarming about Nova is his peculiar variance in statistics from 2011 to 2012. To most, Nova’s huge uptick in strikeouts, over a nearly identical number of starts and innings pitched, would normally mean greater success. 

Actually, the exact opposite in Nova’s case. His ERA jumped by precisely 1.33 last season and he gave up 28 home runs, up from 13 the year before. Nova has to find a rhythm and determine which pitches are most successful against certain hitters. 

Part of that is location and part of that is strategy. Nova needs to add the two together and find the right mix this April. Otherwise, he could be on the outside looking in at the Yankees’ rotation. That is of course, assuming all remains equal with good health.

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If you’re still waiting for the New York Yankees to make a blockbuster trade this offseason that will position them as front-runners for the American League pennant, then now is the appropriate time for you to return to your normal daily activities.

This is 2013, a new time for the Yankees. A time defined by a businesslike approach to personnel—one which means less spending and more saving in order to get under the luxury tax threshold before the 2014 MLB season.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman is really handcuffed right now. What’s so remarkable and hard to comprehend for Yankee fans is that things have changed dramatically from the way they were for such a long time under the reign of George Steinbrenner.

Now, ownership has mostly delegated decision-making authority for player personnel to the GM. Yet ownership is also quite frugal compared to where it was just a few years ago.

The Yankees are paying a premium for experienced talent in the short term while showing an unwillingness to take on long-term contracts. The team has also chosen not to pursue smaller trades that were floated as rumors in the media.

The Yankees’ inaction is a nearly complete 180 from the way business used to be done in the Bronx.

Why?

It would appear that the answers go well beyond our comprehension. But I think a lot comes down to the fact that Hal Steinbrenner is a true businessman who is interested in generating a profit for his business.

In baseball, one way to generate a profit is to have a great product on the field that people are willing to come and see.

Another way is to cut costs.

And that’s precisely what Hal Steinbrenner is trying to do, so less money will be taken from him by MLB in 2014 when the newest round of the luxury tax could potentially hit his business…er, team.

Now, it’s impossible to fault him for that logic from a business perspective, which is why plenty of people defend him.

But it just so happens that while the “shareholders” may understand and see the logic of Hal’s business approach, they end up not profiting in this scenario.

Am I suggesting that the Yankees should have signed Josh Hamilton and mortgaged the farm for a No. 2 or No. 3 starter? 

No. I think the Yankees’ frugal ways have been partly good and partly bad.

This business approach may have just cost them Michael Morse, whom the Washington Nationals just traded to the Seattle Mariners. Morse was a moderately coveted right-handed hitter who could have helped boost the Yankees lineup, which is heavily left-handed.

The Yankees have also—prudently, I’d add—shown a reluctance to deal highly valued prospects for Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton. It seems that Upton’s price tag is too steep. 

Under the old regime, Upton would be scouting some of Manhattan’s poshest developments for a luxury apartment by now.

In the past, King George would have definitely re-signed Nick Swisher, his postseason failures notwithstanding. He was a fan favorite and a solid player with a couple of good years left in him even if the cost would have been prohibitive.

Who cares? “Win now, worry later” used to be the philosophy.

Hal Steinbrenner is making decisions like a businessman who sees things exclusively in black and red on the bottom line. Much of the decision making, which seems to be in Cashman‘s court, has been taken out of his hands.

That’s not at all an excuse for Cashman, just my opinion. Hal throws out his “rah, rah” line here and there basically about how the brass will do whatever it takes, which emerged as a news story last week.

Personally, I think most, if not all, of that is lip service. I won’t be surprised if the Yankees trade Curtis Granderson. And I won’t be surprised if they end up breaking form, just slightly, to give two years to a guy like Scott Hairston.

But the days of George Steinbrenner are long gone. The gentleman who owns the team now has an MBA and sees baseball from a business perspective.

One that is all about continuing to line his pockets and make shrewd financial decisions.

What will happen next season after Hal Steinbrenner tries to get under the luxury tax threshold? Will the old days return, or are the Yankees’ present methods the new norm moving forward?

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The New York evening was growing older, fans getting restless and the Yankees looking for someone to step up and lift them one step closer to the postseason. Leave it to their dedicated, hard-working catcher Russell Martin to deliver the big blow in last night’s enormous 10-inning victory over Oakland.

Russell Martin?

Yes, the much-maligned catcher has become a critical part of the Yankees’ success late this season and his contributions have helped bolster the lineup just enough to get the Bombers on a nice win streak. Martin has a nearly .900 OPS in the month of September (.896 to be exact) and has cranked out some enormous home runs.

From a momentum-shifting, three-run shot in Baltimore two weeks ago to help lead the Yankees to victory, to a game-changing, opposite-field three-run shot last Sunday against Tampa, to last night’s walk-off bomb deep into the left-centerfield seats at Yankee Stadium, Martin has been one of the best Yankee hitters in September.

It’s been a curious season for Martin, considering he’s hit under .200 for most of the year. Yet the veteran from Canada is now within one homer of his career-high in home runs and all Yankee fans may remember about his 2012 season is how he’s come to the rescue of the Bombers when it’s mattered most.

Particularly if he can deliver next month when the games are even bigger.

Martin is known as one of the best game-managers in baseball as a catcher, and the defensive metrics reflect his ability to get the job done behind the plate. After all, it’s been Martin’s catching savvy and rangy athleticism behind the plate in blocking balls and throwing out base-stealers that the Yankees have always coveted most about his skill set.

During Martin’s tremendous struggles earlier this summer, Yankees manager Joe Girardi spoke about Martin’s ability to save runs and his optimism that Martin was a far better hitter than what he had shown.

“The big thing is saving runs. That’s the bottom line to me. I don’t get too caught up in offense, but I think you’ll see a different guy in the second half.”

Martin has also proven himself to be a much, much better hitter against left-handed pitching than right-handers. Girardi has shifted Martin up to the fifth spot in the lineup in several big games this month against the multitude of southpaws that opposing teams have tried throwing at the Yankees to keep them in check.

The Yankees have struggled mightily against lefties this season, and Martin’s demonstrated ability against them has helped make up some of the difference. Whether Martin will be back in pinstripes next season is anybody’s guess, but to rule out the possibility would be foolish.

Martin will turn 30 just before the start of spring training for the 2013 season. He’s in the Top 10 in the majors in home runs among catchers and his excellent clubhouse presence cannot be understated. Martin fits in very well with this team and the Bombers will likely be reluctant to let him go.

Following Martin’s second walk-off home run of the season last night, Girardi again complimented his catcher for his resolve and ability to come through with the big hit.

“Russell has been a clutch player for a good part of his career. He’s been in big moments, he’s been in playoff spots. He’s a good player, has power, and we knew we got off to a slow start in the first half but his second half has been really good and productive for us.”

Many Yankees fans have sure pined for the days that Jorge Posada was behind the plate these last two seasons. You just don’t lose a player of Posada’s borderline-Hall of Fame offensive production and not miss a beat.

But Yankee fans could sure do worse than Russell Martin—a player with the knack for a clutch hit and the kind of grit and determination that makes you feel he’d run through a wall in order to get a win.

That’s the kind of player the Yankees would take on their team any day of the week.

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The Yankees have blasted their way to the highest home run total in the majors, and they’re currently tied for first in team OPS. Yet they have had odd struggles batting with runners in scoring position. This problem has plagued the Bombers all season long and they enter this series at just 17th in the majors.

The Yankees are 8-4 against Boston this season, with six games left in the season series. The Red Sox come in with nothing to play for other than personal pride and the chance to give their fans something to cheer about by putting a dent in the Yankees’ postseason hopes.

The 2012 season did not start out with low expectations for the Sox—in fact, quite the opposite. Boston was considered to be a front-runner to win the division. Injuries, clubhouse discord and poor performance has derailed the Sox season.

Ownership also blew up what were the Red Sox earlier this summer in the deal that sent Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to Los Angeles. 

The Red Sox have been decimated by injuries—from Jacoby Ellsbury to Dustin Pedroia to Will Middlebrooks—and it’s shown in their record. David Ortiz was having an exceptional season, once again hitting over .300 and belting 23 home runs, until an Achilles strain sidelined him for the rest of the year.

Cody Ross and Pedroia have been bright spots in the lineup, but Adrian Gonzalez had been a disappointment at first base, particularly when you consider Boston was paying him just under $22M. Jacoby Ellsbury is just hoping this season will end. Ellsbury was one of the best players in all of baseball last season.

What a difference a year makes. This season, Ellsbury has missed two months due to injury and since coming back has been a lackluster hitter for Boston. Yet for all of Boston’s faults, they’re still incredibly ninth in the majors in team OPS. The Yankees should not take them for granted.

The Yankees are hoping to pounce on their prey and beat down the Red Sox at Fenway by reviving their lineup and getting hitters like Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher back on track. Russell Martin has come alive for the Yankees at the right time as they near another AL East division crown.

When baseball’s biggest rivalry comes up, you can throw out the proverbial records. These should be long, grinding games that will keep fans up until way past 10pm. The Yankees are hoping to gain ground on Baltimore and Tampa and find a late season surge.

Here is an offensive tale of the tape and a breakdown of the pitching matchups:

By the Numbers (Major League rank through games played on September 10th):

Team OPS (On Base + Slugging Percentage): 
Yankees: T-1st
Red Sox: 9th

Team Home Runs: 
Yankees: 1st
Red Sox: 11th

Runs Scored: 
Yankees: 2nd
Red Sox: 6th

Batting Average: 
Yankees: 10th 
Red Sox: 7th

Batting Average with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP): 
Yankees: 17th
Red Sox: 6th

Top Hitters: 
Yankees: Robinson Cano (.303 BA, .9411 OPS, 29 HR, 74 RBI); Derek Jeter (.324 BA, .816 OPS, 15 HR, 50 RBI); Curtis Granderson (.235 BA, .806 OPS, 35 HR, 86 RBI)

Red Sox: Dustin Pedroia (.289 BA, .797 OPS, 14 HR, 58 RBI); Cody Ross (.280 BA, .857 OPS, 20 HR, 73 RBI); Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.225 BA, .745 OPS, 23 HR, 53 RBI)

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Entering play on Saturday, July 21st, the New York Yankees have the best record in baseball, surging of late, winning nine of their previous 13 games. The Bronx Bombers lead Major League Baseball in home runs, are eighth in team batting average and first in OPS (on base + slugging percentage).

However, the Yankees are second to last in the American League while batting with runners in scoring position (RISP). Huh?

Of all the major sports, baseball is the simplest to quantify and to project team and individual performance. It’s a sport that is eminently easy to follow statistically, given its large sample sizes and isolated moments of game action.

Baseball’s statistical projections and prognostications are mostly based on past performance and studying trends. In certain respects, this differs very little from the methods behind predicting stock market successes or failures.

These trends project whether a player or team will perform at certain levels given their age, health and the aforementioned past performance. Most teams now employ personnel that help them to gain a statistical advantage that they hope translates to success on the field.

Just like a Wall Street brokerage firm, any general manager or front office person in Major League Baseball can tell you that having all of the best statistical information and algorithms at your disposal does not always guarantee future success.

How else can one explain the Yankees strong overall offensive performance and simultaneous ineptitude while hitting with men on second and/or third base? Manager Joe Girardi is at a loss. Following their victory in Atlanta last month, the Yankees skipper said “Let’s not (talk about it) and let’s see if it changes,” he said. “Let’s try a different way, and let’s see if it changes.”

Something may need to change sooner rather than later; otherwise, the Yankees could be looking at another disappointing October. Given the increasingly competitive battle within their division this season, the Yankees no longer have any “gimme” games.

The Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays have significantly stepped up their hitting this season and each team has batters that can rake on a nightly basis. While none of these three teams match the offensive prowess of the Bombers, two of the three (Toronto and Tampa Bay) are ahead while hitting with RISP. But does it matter?

The two teams which represented their leagues in the Fall Classic last season were the two best hitting teams with RISP during the 2011 regular season. Yet, if you go back to the 2010 season, you find that the San Francisco Giants finished last in the National League in batting average with RISP. In case you forgot, those same Giants won the World Series.

In 2009, when the Yankees won their 27th World Series title, they finished eighth in the majors batting with RISP. The NL champions, Philadelphia, were 23rd. In 2008, the Rays and Phillies won the AL and NL pennants. Tampa finished last in the AL while hitting with RISP and Philly were right smack in the middle of all major league teams in the same category.

The Yankees have enjoyed tremendous success in the regular season during their incredible, sustained run of dominance since the start of the 1994 season. The Yanks have reached the postseason every year but one since the 1995 season, winning five World Series titles and capturing seven American League pennants.

In the Yankees’ past two postseasons, the lack of big hits in big spots have ruined the Bombers’ chances of reaching the World Series. There’s no question that these hitting woes are under greater scrutiny given the magnitude of October baseball.

Baseball players, especially those in New York, understand that all too well. Though the answer that no one seems to have is how to improve in that area—in those moments.

It may give fans no comfort, there simply does not appear to be a consistently proven correlation, over the course of a season, between a superior batting average with men in scoring position and winning championships.

Though it sure couldn’t hurt for the Yankees to improve in that category.

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