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Are the Red Sox a lock to win the AL East?

Sure looks like it at this juncture. Let’s put it this way: the AL East is Boston’s to lose. The trade for Adrian Gonzalez and the signing of Carl Crawford have been Boston’s two major headline-grabbing moves. But what has really helped solidify Boston’s top dog status has been the team’s recent effort to patch up their biggest hole—the bullpen—with the recent acquisitions of Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler.

Meanwhile, down in the Bronx, the New York Yankees are in a rare position. So far this winter, they’ve been beaten at their own game. The Yankees aren’t pulling the biggest trades or signing the priciest free agents. New York tossed all of their eggs into the Cliff Lee basket only to lose out to the Phillies, despite their longer and more lucrative contract offer.

You don’t think the Yankees would like a mulligan on the past two months? GM Brian Cashman never did as much as make an offer to Carl Crawford, who would have been a perfect fit in the Bronx. Ditto for Jayson Werth.

But aren’t the Yankees still a great team?

Yes. And despite taking their lumps this winter, New York is still a team full of star players and, perhaps more importantly, they still have their willingness and ability to spend. The money the Steinbrenner brothers so desperately wanted to give to Lee is still theirs to spend. While most of the big names on the trading block or up for free agency have found new homes, there are still many players out there that the Yankees are looking at.

With Lee no longer a factor in their finances, the Yankees will have to turn to other players to plug their gaps. They’ve already begun this process in part with the signings of catcher Russell Martin and left-handed reliever Pedro Feliciano.

Without further adieu, the 10 possible deals that the Yankees might consider…

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The big news today is that Cliff Lee rejected the Yankees. Red Sox fans have every right and reason to be delighted by this news. However, the Yankees did quietly sign Russell Martin this morning. The ramifications of Martin going to New York are not nearly as intriguing as those of Lee not going to New York, however they are still of particular interest to Red Sox fans.

With Martin off the table, the job of starting catcher for the Boston Red Sox now lays squarely in the hands of Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Saltalamacchia may not be the Red Sox catcher of the future, but he will have the chance to audition for just that role in the upcoming 2011 season.

Salty’s opportunity comes on the cheap for Boston: a one-year, non-guaranteed deal that will pay out a maximum of $750,000. Without venturing too much into the realms of cliche and speculation, the Red Sox front office probably feels considerably more comfortable handing Salty the reins with a healthy Jason Varitek signed on for one more year, in what will likely be the final year of the veteran catcher’s playing career.

But what exactly do Theo and Co. see in Jarrod Saltalamacchia? His name, alphabetically cumbersome as it is, is a familiar one to savvy Sox fans; Salty had been on Epstein’s radar for the past couple of seasons before he eventually acquired him last July.

Every previous time Epstein had inquired about Saltalamacchia, the Rangers had asked for Clay Buccholz. Upon his acquisition last summer, Epstein remarked that “[Saltalamacchia] came with a real high price tag in the past, and we hope he’s someone we’re buying low on right now as he’s battling a few different issues.”

The “few different issues” that Epstein was referring to are a rash of injuries that have plagued Saltalamacchia the past few seasons, delaying his emergence as full-time catcher, talented or otherwise.

Saltalamacchia’s brief stint with the Red Sox has been no different. Called up from Pawtucket on August 12, Saltalamacchia landed on the DL within a week with a leg infection. Once off the DL in September, Saltalamacchia’s left (catching) thumb began giving him trouble, and he had surgery later that month to repair ligament damage.

The Red Sox have always liked the way that Saltalamacchia can swing the bat. A switch-hitter, Saltalamacchia is regarded to have below-average contact but great plate discipline, along with plus-power from both sides of the plate.

This is the same skill set that Jason Varitek brought to the plate during his prime, during which he eclipsed 20 home runs three times and reached 70 RBI four times. Varitek’s contact issues have become decidedly more pronounced in recent season yet he’s retained his pop, as evidenced by his seven home runs last season over 123 plate appearances over 39 games. Epstein believes Saltalamacchia can find a similar niche with the bat at Fenway.

However, what has made Varitek so valuable over the years has been his ability to call games. This ability is often listed alongside Varitek’s skills as a clubhouse leader. However, it is important to distinguish the two in analyzing Saltalamacchia. The Red Sox are not looking for Salty to be their next team captain, they just hope he can handle a pitching staff as well as Varitek has been able to. There is an argument to be made that the only reason the 39-year-old Tek is back with Boston is for him to pass on those same qualities to Saltalamacchia.

2011 is Salty’s shot at inheriting Varitek’s mantle. If the Sox aren’t impressed with what they see come July, don’t be surprised to see a deadline deal for someone like Colorado‘s Chris Ianetta. The Red Sox are also keen on 23-year-old Ryan Lavarnway, who figures to begin the season at Double-A Portland. However, if Saltalamacchia stays healthy and plays well in 2011, a two-to-three year offer from Boston in the neighborhood of $10 million would not be out of the question for either the player or the organization.

Clearly, the hope is that Saltalamacchia still has the potential to be the player that Epstein thinks he can be. He’ll be turning 26 in May and is still, as the scouts would say, “pre-prime.” Judging by how Boston has addressed the catching position this winter, Epstein’s hopes for Salty also appears to be mixed with sufficient confidence.

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There is a certain logic to why the Washington Nationals splurged on Jayson Werth, even if it is a faulty logic. But what was the logic of the Boston Red Sox snagging Carl Crawford for seven years at $142 million? The guy is good, but is he that good?

Unlike the the Nationals, who were a team acting upon a desperate desire just to be relevant, the Red Sox were already a very good team, fresh off of netting Adrian Gonzalez. Additionally, it stands to reason that Boston benefits from a certain wisdom that comes through having a history of winning and being rich.

One would also think that the Red Sox front office learned their lesson the hard way with J.D. Drew.

Like the Nationals signing Werth, Boston had external motives behind the Crawford deal beyond the player himself. For the Red Sox it’s always about keeping up with New York. The Yankees may not have wanted Crawford, but this now puts all of the pressure on them to sign Cliff Lee, lest they walk away from this winter without signing even one of the free agent heavyweights. Boston also finished a lackluster third in the AL East last season, and the Crawford deal was exactly the kind of macho power move that the front office needed to placate a rabid fan base. The Red Sox were World Series contenders before Crawford. With him, they’re the early favorites.

But looking beyond how these external motives may have raised the price on Crawford, it is interesting to note that he might actually live up to his huge worth.

$142 million over seven years might seem high for a guy who, over the past three seasons has a .803 OPS. This, compared to Boston’s big bats: Gonzalez (.910), Kevin Youkilis (.975), Dustin Pedroia (.860), and David Ortiz (.899). But that number is still better than J.D. Drew’s .793.

Incidentally, it is important to mention Drew. For one, Crawford will live in the shadow of J.D.’s five-year $70 million contract. For one, this deal is widely considered Theo Epstein’s biggest free agency blunder, and Crawford’s worth will always judged against the merits of the Drew deal. However Crawford is also linked to J.D. because Crawford’s value truly projects best if switches from left field to right, Drew’s position.

God bless him, J.D. will be gone after 2011, however it is worth having Crawford in right starting this year. Playing left at Fenway takes away Crawford’s speed, whereas Fenway’s right field is among the more spacious in all of baseball. Crawford is widely regarded as a premier defensive outfielder. It would behoove Boston to maximize his talents by playing him in right rather than neutralizing his speed in left.

As for said speed on the base paths? It figures Crawford’s stolen base totals have seen their best days; Boston’s offense does not favor base stealing, neither in style or substance. However Crawford’s speed will still be utilized, albeit in less statistically appreciated ways, such as going first to third on an opposite field blooper by Youkilis or second to home on a ground ball up the middle by Ortiz.

But it all comes back to his fielding. FanGraphs Dave Cameron points to Crawford’s WAR (Wins Above Replacement) value as being the best indicator of just how good he really is. Crawford’s WAR over the past two seasons is sixth-best in all of baseball. Cameron argues that if “you buy into Crawford being an elite defender, then he is worth this contract, and maybe even a little bit more.”

Crawford has landed his big payday, but what will be interesting to see in the future is the price put on top-notch outfield defense. Seattle gave Franklin Gutierrez, arguably the best defensive outfielder in the game, four years at $20.5 million a team option for a fifth year. Gutierrez does not compare to Crawford at the dish (only a .666 OPS) however he isn’t terrible with the bat, and he has speed and obviously compares to Crawford in the field. Would Gutierrez stand to make more now, in the wake of Crawford’s mega-deal? Not that it matters for Gutierrez anymore, but would $10 million a year be out of the question for a player of his caliber?

The price put on slick fielding is still up for grabs, however it seems safe to say that it isn’t an undervalued commodity anymore in light of Carl Crawford, who just might actually live up to his big deal, even if he never hits 20 home runs. Will the same be said of Jayson Werth?

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