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Fantasy Baseball: Friday News and Notes

Last Night Rewind

  • A strained oblique muscle has to be one of the more difficult injuries for a baseball player to battle. Jose Reyes left last night’s game in the second inning with exactly that type of injury. The Mets have already said that he will not play until there is no pain in the oblique, but that it is considered “mild.” Daily leagues should get him out of the lineup for a few days. If you can ride a hot streak, look at Yuniesky Betancourt to fill in.
  • Cliff Lee fell again last night, giving up five runs on seven hits in a loss to the Twins. He has also now given up five home runs in his last two starts and 23 runs in his last 24.2 innings. Lee is not getting the benefit of facing easy lineups, but he certainly has been catching too much of the plate lately. He could still work this out and be effective, but the flags are waiting to go up here.
  • Colby Rasmus had expected to return to the lineup last night against Washington, but was again sidelined by a strained calf muscle. The Cardinals have not placed him on the DL through all of this, but he has had just seven at-bats since August 13th. Rasmus still hopes to play in the series this weekend, but keep him out of your lineups until he actually steps in the box.
  • Edwin Jackson has been dominant since returning to the American League. In four starts, he has posted a 0.96 ERA and 34 strikeouts over 28 innings of work. He threw an eight-inning gem last night against the Orioles to pick up his second win in that span. Jackson’s overall command has been impressive as well. He has walked only seven hitters in this stretch.
  • Let’s call the Kevin Correia discussion from yesterday a split decision. Correia himself was lit up like a Christmas tree, but Gerardo Parra did record three hits. Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson both had good enough games to call it a split. Correia gave up nine runs in just 3.1 innings pitched last night, making his start nothing less than a disaster. This was the famine part of the “feast or famine” mentioned in yesterday’s notes.

Friday Notes

  • Alfonso Soriano is 8-for-20 against Johnny Cueto with three home runs and Aramis Ramirez is 5-for-16 with two home runs himself. Look to avoid Kosuke Fukudome and his 5-for-21 mark where possible. Cueto is just 1-2 in August and has a 4.12 ERA at home this season.
  • Ubaldo Jimenez is just 2-3 with an ERA over 4.00 since the All-Star break, and he has struggled with the Dodgers in the past. Ryan Theriot and Matt Kemp are both hitting better than .300 and should be in your lineup for this one. Look to avoid Manny Ramirez, as he is only 1-for-13 against Jimenez lifetime.
  • Tim Lincecum is 0-4 with an 8.38 ERA this month, allowing 18 earned runs and four home runs in 19.1 innings pitched. Only Justin Upton, though, has a career mark worth starting against the ace. Upton is 9-for-26, posting the only average above .200 of players that are likely to be in your fantasy lineup. Avoid the 3-for-31 of Chris Young, and most other Diamondbacks where you have other options. Mark Reynolds has 12 strikeouts in 19 at-bats against Lincecum.
  • Jon Lester was pushed back from his start against the Mariners so he can take the ball against the Rays on Friday night. Lester is 7-3 with a 2.46 ERA on the road this season and his numbers this month are skewed by the disaster against Toronto. Jason Bartlett has a .346 mark against Lester, and only B.J. Upton at .176 is worth benching. Play other Rays as you normally would.
  • David Price is 7-1 at home this season, posting a 2.11 ERA and .211 BAA. He has held lefties to a .213 mark this season, so keep that in mind when playing J.D. Drew and David Ortiz in particular. Price has had some command issues of late, walking 10 in his last 17 innings. He has recorded just one win in his last three starts.
  • To say that A.J. Burnett has been all over the map lately is an insult to cartographers everywhere. He has struggled this month, going 0-3 with a 6.08 ERA in four starts and giving up five home runs in 26.2 innings of work. Paul Konerko is 3-for-11 with two home runs against Burnett while Andruw Jones is at .286 with three home runs in 35 at-bats.
  • Derrek Lee is only 3-for-14 against Chris Volstad and Brian McCann has struggled to just a 2-for-11 mark. Volstad has struggled away from home this season, going just 4-5 with a 6.44 ERA away from home and a .304 BAA. This month, batters are hitting .314 against him despite his 2-1 record. Needless to say, he is coming off the spot start list.
  • Tommy Hanson is 2-0 against Florida this season, giving up just two earned runs in 12.2 innings against them. While he is 0-2 in five starts this month, Hanson has a 1.89 ERA in those outings. Needless to say, he has been a victim of some bad luck there. Not much of a track record for the Florida hitters, but note that Dan Uggla is just 1-for-9.
  • Clayton Kershaw is 3-0 this season against Colorado, posting a 0.90 ERA in those starts. While Dexter Fowler and Ian Stewart check in at better than .300, they are about it when it comes to offense. Troy Tulowitzki is just 4-for-23 and Todd Helton is only 4-for-18. Ryan Spilborghs has two home runs against Kershaw, but he is only a .227 hitter in 22 at-bats.
  • Spot Starts: Figueroa, Vargas, but the pickings are really slim here

Weekend Notes

  • Alex Rios has hit .308 in 26 at-bats against C.C. Sabathia and has added three home runs as well. Mark Teahen checks in at .286 in 35 trips to the plate, but does have 16 strikeouts against Sabathia as well. Alexei Ramirez is the only other player above .300, with four hits in 11 at-bats. Sabathia is 4-1 this month with a 2.48 ERA.
  • Clay Buchholz has a 0.82 ERA in two starts over 11 innings against the Rays this season. He is 4-0 this month with a 0.99 ERA and .200 BAA in five starts. Better, he is 8-2 on the road this season. Carl Crawford is the best of the bunch against Buchholz with a .278 average in 18 at-bats. Look to hold back where you can on your Rays, as Bartlett, Pena, and Longoria are all below .240.
  • Ricky Nolasco is still expected to make his start on Saturday against Atlanta despite suffering from a torn meniscus in his knee. Those in daily leagues should be mindful of this fact and check often to see if he is still in the plans to go. This type of injury is dangerous, and I would recommend benching him for this start to understand the full impact of the injury.
  • Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran have seen plenty of Brett Myers and are hitting .319 and .314 against him respectively. David Wright has struggled to a 7-for-32 mark, but he does have four home runs against the Houston starter. Luis Castillo has ugly numbers at only 6-for-38 with 11 strikeouts. Myers is 3-7 on the road this year.
  • Bronson Arroyo has won both his starts against the Cubs this year in impressive fashion. In 13 innings against them, he has not allowed a walk or a run and has given up just seven hits. He is 3-1 this month with a 2.73 ERA in four starts. Alfonso Soriano is only 8-for-42 and Aramis Ramirez is only 9-for-42 against Arroyo.
  • In 17 innings and two starts against Arizona this season, Matt Cain is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA. He has allowed just four hits and three walks against them while striking out 18 hitters. Only the .292 of Stephen drew cracks the .250 mark among regulars that fantasy owners would be looking to start. Avoid the Diamondbacks where possible.
  • David Ortiz is now hitting .400 against James Shields in 30 at-bats. Ortiz has added three home runs in those trips to the plate. J.D. Drew is at .344 while Mike Lowell hits .357 and Victor Martinez is 6-for-16. Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro have struggled, but they are the only two Red Sox to look at benching.
  • Gio Gonzalez has allowed only three earned runs in his last four starts, covering 27 innings of work. He is 1-1 against Texas this season in three starts and has largely held the tough lineup in check. No player on the Rangers with at least eight at-bats has better than a .250 average against the Oakland starter.
  • Derek Lowe is just 1-3 on the month, but his 3.26 ERA is certainly respectable. Lowe is 8-5 at home this season with a 3.81 ERA in those 14 starts. Batters are hitting well against him, posting a mark of .272 and .288 this month, and that does throw a wrench here. Especially when you add in that Hanley Ramirez is 12-for-24 and Dan Uggla is 10-for-26.
  • Spot Starts: Bush, Gonzalez, Norris, D. Hudson, Capuano

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Fantasy Baseball: Thursday News and Notes

It’s another day where I got a late jump on these. With that in mind, we’ll get right in to today’s notes and a look ahead at tomorrow. This whole trying to run a blog, work a day job, and handle a one-month old is more tiring than you would expect!

Thursday Notes

Jordan Zimmermann is returning to the mound today for the Nationals. He will take the place of Stephen Strasburg in the rotation. Zimmermann’s rehab from Tommy John surgery has gone as smoothly as anyone could have expected, resulting in a 1.59 ERA in 39.2 minor league innings. He is certainly worth a flyer going forward, but he draws a tough matchup in the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter today.

Adam Dunn is only 4-for-24 with one home run against Carpenter, but Ivan Rodriguez is worth starting if you need a couple hits from the catcher position. Rodriguez is 10-for-28, good for a .357 mark against Carpenter. Ryan Zimmerman is only 1-for-10 himself.

Anibal Sanchez has given up only two earned runs in his last three starts covering 19.2 innings. Batters are hitting only .213 against him in August. Carlos Beltran is 4-for-10 against Sanchez lifetime, but look to avoid the 3-for-19 mark of Jose Reyes and 3-for-16 of David Wright where possible. Sanchez has been a pleasant surprise this month and should be a spot start option here.

Don’t look now, but Wandy Rodriguez has allowed just five earned runs in 26.1 innings this month. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in a start since facing the Cubs on July 19th. No one on the Phillies has more than nine at-bats against the starter, so track record is harder to determine. Jimmy Rollins does have four hits in nine at-bats against him and is the only note worth taking.

Batters are pounding Kyle Kendrick this month to the tune of .346. Kendrick has a 5.40 ERA in August and a 5.46 ERA at home this year. He has allowed 10 earned runs in his last nine innings pitched in Philadelphia. The Astros may not have the most potent offense in the league, but even they should take advantage of these numbers.

Kevin Correia is 2-1 in three starts this year against the Diamondbacks, but has surrendered five home runs in 17.2 innings against them. Of late he has been feast or famine. In his last four starts, he has not allowed a run in two of them and in the others has allowed a combined nine earned. Stephen Drew is just 8-for-41, while Mark Reynolds is 8-for-36. Look to use Gerardo Parra, Adam LaRoche, and Kelly Johnson if you have them. All hit better than .300 against Correia.

Cliff Lee is winless in his last three starts, having been hammered for 18 earned runs in his last 19.2 innings pitched. While it is almost excusable to surrender numbers to the Rays and Yankees, the eight against Baltimore is certainly questionable. Delmon Young (3-for-24) and Jim Thome (.208) have struggled against Lee, but look to start Denard Span.

Francisco Liriano had this start today pushed back three days and he did not throw in-between starts. Ron Gardenhire is not concerned, but has noted that Liriano has a tired arm. It has shown in the fact that he has been roughed up in two of his last three starts, allowing a total of 10 runs in his last 15.1 innings. Of greater concern are the 12 walks against just 16 strikeouts. If you can avoid him here against Texas, do so.

Spot Starts: Gonzalez, Sanchez, Correia

Friday Notes

Alfonso Soriano is 8-for-20 against Johnny Cueto with three home runs, and Aramis Ramirez is 5-for-16 with two home runs himself. Look to avoid Kosuke Fukudome and his 5-for-21 mark where possible. Cueto is just 1-2 in August and has a 4.12 ERA at home this season.

Ubaldo Jimenez is just 2-3 with an ERA over 4.00 since the All-Star break, and he has struggled with the Dodgers in the past. Ryan Theriot and Matt Kemp are both hitting better than .300 and should be in your lineup for this one. Look to avoid Manny Ramirez, as he is only 1-for-13 against Jimenez lifetime.

Tim Lincecum is 0-4 with an 8.38 ERA this month, allowing 18 earned runs and four home runs in 19.1 innings pitched. Only Justin Upton, though, has a career mark worth starting against the ace. Upton is 9-for-26, posting the only average above .200 of players that are likely to be in your fantasy lineup. Avoid the 3-for-31 of Chris Young, and most other Diamondbacks where you have other options. Mark Reynolds has 12 strikeouts in 19 at-bats against Lincecum.

Jon Lester was pushed back from his start against the Mariners so he can take the ball against the Rays on Friday night. Lester is 7-3 with a 2.46 ERA on the road this season and his numbers this month are skewed by the disaster that was against Toronto. Jason Bartlett has a .346 mark against Lester, and only B.J. Upton at .176 is worth benching. Play other Rays as you normally would.

David Price is 7-1 at home this season, posting a 2.11 ERA and .211 BAA. He has held lefties to a .213 mark this season, so keep that in mind when playing J.D. Drew and David Ortiz in particular. Price has had some command issues of late, walking 10 in his last 17 innings. He has recorded just one win in his last three starts.

Spot Starts: Volstad, Figueroa, Vargas, but the pickings are really slim here

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Fantasy Baseball: Wednesday News and Notes

 

Last Night Rewind

  • Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia returned to their respective lineups after missing time with injuries. Pedroia went hitless in four at-bats, but he did immediately give the Boston lineup a bit more respectability. He will need to get his timing back and could struggle for a week. The same would be true for Utley. It could take Utley longer to fully be ready to go despite him being in the lineup. He went 0-for-5 last night.
  • Staying in Boston, there are multiple reports indicating that Jacoby Ellsbury could be done for the season. The outfielder is on the DL for the third time this season with a rib injury. Terry Francona indicated that it is going to be a matter of how much he can tolerate, as being 100 percent this year is likely out of the question.
  • Colby Rasmus was not in the lineup last night for the Cardinals. He indicated that he could miss the next four games with a strained calf muscle. If that is the case, daily leagues should certainly get him out of the lineup for Wednesday and consider him a question mark straight through the series against the Giants.
  • Justin Morneau took batting practice yesterday before the Twins’ game against the White Sox. Batting practice was initially supposed to be the final step before a rehab assignment, but Morneau continues to battle symptoms upon completion of any activity. Look for an update on his condition today. Fantasy owners are certainly waiting on his return.
  • Seven days ago, Curtis Granderson was not in the lineup as the team looked to change his swing. It certainly seems to be doing the job. In his last 22 at-bats Granderson is hitting .364 with two home runs and two doubles. Over that stretch he has raised his average nine points up to .248. Not stellar, but a step in the right direction.

 

Wednesday Notes

  • Victor Martinez is 7-for-13 against Scott Kazmir with a home run. He has the best numbers on the roster, with Marco Scutaro checking in at .286. David Ortiz is 9-for-44 and Mike Lowell only 10-for-43, but he does have four home runs against the lefty. Adrian Beltre has struggled with a 3-for-20 mark against Kazmir as well.
  • Casey McGehee has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last two weeks, but he is only 1-for-12 against Adam Wainwright. The bulk of the Brewers have struggled against him as well. Ryan Braun is only 7-for-38, and Prince Fielder is just 6-for-35. Even Rickie Weeks is sitting at 4-for-24. Craig Counsell is a .304 hitter in 23 at-bats against him and is the only Brewer with an average better than .265 against Wainwright.
  • Gavin Floyd was roughed up for the first time in a long time in his last start against Minnesota. Floyd is now 0-2 against them on the year, surrendering seven earned runs on 17 hits in 11.2 innings pitched. Denard Span is 10-for-21 against him, and Jason Kubel has four home runs in 32 at-bats to go with a .344 average.
  • Tim Hudson has been on a bit of a roll lately. Hudson has allowed just two earned runs over his last 36.2 innings pitched covering five starts. Josh Willingham is just 1-for-20 against Hudson while Ryan Zimmerman is only 5-for-31. Ivan Rodriguez and Adam Dunn both have solid numbers against Hudson and should be in your lineup here.
  • Alex Gordon has owned Fausto Carmona, going 8-for-16 against him overall. Mike Aviles cracks .300 as well with his 4-for-13 mark. Billy Butler is not stellar at only 5-for-20 without a home run. Carmona has lost three of his last four starts but is 6-3 on the road with a 3.30 ERA.
  • Francisco Liriano is 2-0 in three starts against the White Sox this year, including a win in his last time out against them. While he may have a tired arm, Liriano has still allowed just five earned runs in his last 31.1 innings pitched. He is 6-3 at home this season with a BAA of .226 and an ERA of 2.32. Avoid the 2-for-15 of Alex Rios, but look to use the 7-for-14 of Alexei Ramirez.
  • You will want the 11-for-33 of Carlos Beltran and maybe even the .279 mark of Jose Reyes in your lineup against Brett Myers, but the rest of the Mets have struggled. David Wright has four home runs against Myers but is only 6-for-28 lifetime. Jeff Francoeur is 7-for-38, and Luis Castillo is only 6-for-38.
  • There is cautious optimism on Jeremy Guthrie. The Orioles pitcher is 3-0 in August with a 1.71 ERA and a .171 BAA. In 21 innings this month he has allowed five walks and 13 hits. He has won four of his last five starts overall and worked into the seventh inning in five of his last six appearances.
  • It could be an even better welcome back for Chase Utley today. Utley is 6-for-12 against Matt Cain with three home runs. Cain has not necessarily been dominant of late, but he continues to pitch better than his record shows. He is not as good on the road as he is at home, posting just a 3-6 record away from San Francisco.
  • Spot Starts: Jason Hammel, Clayton Richard, Guthrie

 

Thursday Notes

  • Josh Beckett has had nothing but struggles, largely stemming from a lack of command in his fastball. The Angels have hit him well overall. Keep Torii Hunter, Howie Kendrick, Maicer Izturis, and Hideki Matsui in your lineups. Look to avoid the 2-for-15 of Alberto Callaspo and the .179 of Bobby Abreu where possible.
  • While you should look to avoid Alexi Casilla and the 4-for-20 of Jim Thome against Mark Buehrle, the rest of the Twins have very good numbers against the lefty. Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, and Delmon Young are all well north of .300 against him, and each has two home runs. Buehrle is just 5-7 on the road this year.
  • Miguel Olivo should get the start against Ted Lilly. Olivo is 5-for-11 against the pitcher with three home runs. He has the only numbers worth noting in this one. Lilly is 3-0 since being acquired by the Dodgers and has posted a 1.89 ERA in those outings.
  • The bats that you would actually want to have in the lineup against Derek Lowe have not done particularly well against him. Adam Dunn has just a .179 average and no home runs in 31 at-bats against him while Josh Willingham is only 5-for-27. Ryan Zimmerman has a .263 mark, and Ivan Rodriguez is at .250. Adam Kennedy is the best of the bunch at .371 in 35 at-bats. Lowe is 0-2 against Washington with a 6.75 ERA this season.
  • Paul Maholm has lost four of his last five starts and has watched his ERA climb nearly a full run in those outings. Batters are hitting .362 against him in August, and he is only 5-7 at home on the season. Dan Uggla is only 3-for-16 against him, but Hanley Ramirez is 6-for-16 with two home runs, and Cody Ross is 4-for-11.
  • Spot Starts: Sean West, John Lannan, Travis Wood

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Fantasy Baseball: Wednesday News and Notes

Last Night Rewind

  • DL news continues to top the list. Dustin Pedroia feels he will be back in a week. This came after a successful workout with some full-speed running. Pedroia will work out this week and make two rehab appearances over the weekend in Triple-A. Rafael Furcal was placed on the DL by the Dodgers with a lower back strain following last night’s game.
  • Ian Kinsler is not likely to come off the DL on Thursday when eligible. Kinsler still has inflammation in his groin that is keeping him away from much baseball activity. The second baseman is likely now to be sidelined until the end of the month.
  • There was a rookie with a stellar performance last night, and this time it was not Stephen Strasburg. Jeremy Hellickson worked seven innings for the Rays last night against the Tigers to record the win. It took just 86 pitches for him to work seven innings and record seven strikeouts without allowing a walk on three hits.
  • When it comes to making bad calls, there were a few in the notes yesterday. None worse than the idea that Freddy Garcia should be able to control the Twins. Garcia came into the game with a 5-2 home record but could not get out of the third inning last night. He surrendered three home runs and six earned runs to Minnesota. Just an ugly outing. Got the Jason Kubel part right anyway…a small silver lining.
  • Kyle Kendrick had been dominant of late but fell victim to the Dodgers. Kendrick had given up only four earned runs in a span of 19.1 innings, but last night gave up five earned runs on eight hits and a walk in just 3.1 innings. Jay Gibbons announced his return to the majors with authority last night, hitting his first home run since 2007.

 

Wednesday Notes

  • There certainly needs to be some concern in throwing Javier Vazquez right now. Vazquez had a dead arm against Boston, an outing where he could not touch 90 with any of his pitches. Much of his success has been a result of his fastball. With that not there, be wary. Jorge Cantu is 5-for-11 against Vazquez.
  • Brandon Phillips is just 3-for-19 against Adam Wainwright. Surprisingly, he is the only player on the Reds with any sort of reliable track record against the St. Louis starter. Wainwright is 5-6 on the road this year. Overall, he has allowed one earned run or less in eight of his last 10 starts. His two blowups in that stretch? On the road.
  • Any Cardinals batters you would start should be good to go against Arroyo. Felipe Lopez is the big winner. He checks in at .417 with two home runs in 36 at-bats. Rasmus, Ryan, Pujols, and Schumaker are all hitting better than .300 with Matt Holliday not far behind at .273. Randy Winn is just 4-for-26, but he is likely not on your radar.
  • The Twins have raked against John Danks. Michael Cuddyer is the big winner, posting a .474 average and five home runs in 38 at-bats against him. Only Jason Kubel checks in below .300 of the regulars you are likely to start and his average is at .296. Danks has allowed 24 hits in 19 innings pitched against the Twins this season.
  • While everything went right for Zack Greinke last season, that has not been the case this year. Erick Aybar has pounded Greinke, going 7-for-14 against him overall. Torii Hunter may only be a .267 hitter, but he does have three home runs in 30 at-bats against the Kansas City starter. Greinke has struggled on the road this season, posting just a 2-6 record.
  • Clay Buchholz has been stellar this season, but the Blue Jays have some decent numbers against him. Adam Lind is 6-for-18 with two home runs while Lyle Overbay is 6-for-17. Aaron Hill has been red-hot all month, but he is only 5-for-21 against Buchholz and has hit just .108 in 27 at-bats against Boston this year.
  • Adrian Beltre is the big winner against Shaun Marcum. Beltre is 7-for-18 with two home runs against the righty. Mike Lowell and Victor Martinez are the only other decent options available. Look to avoid the 4-for-19 of David Ortiz and the 3-for-14 of J.D. Drew.
  • Chone Figgins might own Dallas Braden. Figgins is 8-for-16 against the Oakland starter. Ichiro has 13 at-bats against Braden and a .308 average to show for it. Not much else to report for Seattle in this one. Braden is only 2-3 on the road this year and has surrendered six home runs in 43 innings while allowing batters to hit .283 against him.
  • Wandy Rodriguez has allowed just one earned run over his last three starts, covering 21.1 innings of work. Look to avoid Alex Gonzalez in this one, as he is only 2-for-17 against Rodriguez. Troy Glaus and Matt Diaz both are hitting better than .300 and would make decent plays in this one. David Ross may get the start behind the plate given his 5-for-15 number and the 0-for-8 of Brian McCann.
  • Spot Starts: Correia, Volstad, Bush

 

Thursday Notes

  • Gavin Floyd is 6-1 in his last 10 and has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of those starts. In that span, he has lowered his ERA from 5.20 down to 3.49. Look to Denard Span, who is 9-for-17, and Jason Kubel, who is 10-for-28, as your best options. Delmon Young has really struggled, posting only three hits in 16 at-bats.
  • Francisco Liriano will be pitching against the White Sox on six days rest. Liriano is experiencing a bit of a dead arm and needed the additional day for recovery. This is a tough start given the way it could impact his overall speed and location. Liriano is only 4-4 on the road this season with a 4.57 ERA in 11 starts.
  • Ricky Nolasco is coming off a rough start against the Cardinals, and he is 0-2 against the Nationals this season. In two starts, he has only worked 9.1 innings but surrendered nine runs on 15 hits and two home runs. Josh Willingham is 4-for-10 against him and Ryan Zimmerman has three home runs in 27 at-bats to go with a .296 average.
  • Hanley Ramirez and Wes Helms are your best options on the Marlins against Livan Hernandez. These two are the only regulars with averages north of .300. Dan Uggla has been on a tear, but he is 4-for-25 against Hernandez. Cody Ross is just 4-for-16.
  • Adam LaRoche is the only option worth starting against Randy Wolf. LaRoche is 6-for-19 with a home run. Mark Reynolds has ugly numbers with just a .182 average in 22 at-bats. Chris Young is 4-for-17 while Stephen Drew is just 1-for-10 and Justin Upton only 3-for-13. Wolf has only given up five runs over his last three starts, a total of 19.2 innings
  • Spot Starts: Hammel, Wolf, Duke

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Fantasy Baseball: Tuesday News and Notes

Last Night Rewind

  • Jon Lester finally got himself a win. The Boston pitcher had not been able to put one in the W-column since the All-Star break and running up four straight losses in that stretch. Lester worked 6.1 innings yesterday, getting ahead in the count often. He struggled in the seventh and was removed before he could give up any earned runs. Not dominating, but much better.
  • Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann were placed on the DL yesterday by the Rays. Tampa had gone all season without a major injury to its staff, but now has two that they need to deal with quickly. The team has called up Jeremy Hellickson to start on Tuesday night. He immediately becomes a spot start option. Look for Andy Sonnanstine to get some work in the rotation as well.
  • Both Corey Hart and Ryan Braun were held out of the starting lineup last night for Milwaukee. Braun suffered a wrist injury against Houston over the weekend and is listed as day-to-day. Hart has a sore lower back that forced him out of the game on Sunday. He took part in batting practice but decided that he could not go.
  • Two first base notes. Derrek Lee was placed on the bereavement list by the Cubs and was not available for last night’s game. Do not look for him to be available for the next day or two as a result. Mark Teixeira stayed behind in New York to be with his wife, who is expecting to deliver any day now. He will not be with the team in Texas tonight.
  • While he did not record a hit, Chris Carter was given three at-bats last night for Oakland. Carter started the game in left field, a move that analysts have given major kudos to. It does bode well for his playing time at this point if he can be spotted out there. He was hitting .263 with 27 home runs in Triple-A. In AL-only leagues, he is worth a shot.

 

Tuesday Notes

  • Again, you need to be amazed at some statistics. Adam Lind is just 1-for-20 against Daisuke Matsuzaka with Aaron Hill just 5-for-20 and Lyle Overbay at 5-for-23. Matsuzaka is 2-0 against Toronto this season, striking out 14 without walking a batter in 13 innings against them this season. He is 4-1 on the road in 2010.
  • A.J. Burnett will get the start on Tuesday against the Rangers. Burnett was scratched from his start against Boston on Sunday with back spasms. He has pitched relatively well against many of the Rangers. Vladimir Guerrero is a .222 hitter in 45 at-bats with two home runs and Jorge Cantu is 0-for-12 lifetime.
  • Alexei Ramirez and Alex Rios have ugly numbers against Scott Baker. Ramirez is only 2-for-16 while Rios is 2-for-13. Paul Konerko hits just .259 against Baker, but does have three home runs in 27 at-bats. Baker had one of his best outings of the season last time out, but he is just 2-6 on the road this season with a 5.43 ERA.
  • Orlando Hudson may be back in the lineup, but he is miserable against Freddy Garcia. Hudson is just 2-for-19 against him. Look for a big night from Jason Kubel, who is 6-for-10 against Garcia. Almost the exact opposite of opponent Scott Baker, Garcia is 5-2 at home this season with a 3.74 ERA.
  • Felix Hernandez has not won either of his two starts against the A’s this year, and Oakland has put up 14 hits and eight walks in 12.2 innings against him this year. Hernandez is still 7-2 in his last 12 starts against Oakland. Kevin Kouzmanoff is just 3-for-16 against Hernandez with Coco Crisp at 2-for-13. Look to use Mark Ellis, Kurt Suzuki, and, if healthy, Daric Barton. They are the only three better than .300 against the Seattle starter.
  • Avoid Aaron Rowand and Aubrey Huff against Ryan Dempster. Rowand is 1-for-13 while Huff is 3-for-16. Edgar Renteria has solid numbers here. He is a .318 hitter with two home runs in 22 at-bats. Freddy Sanchez is 6-for-17 while Pat Burrell is at .320 in 25 at-bats. If you are going to get to Dempster, it helps when he pitches on the road. He has allowed 11 home runs in 69.1 road innings to go with a 4-4 record and 4.15 ERA.
  • Kyle Kendrick has been on a slight roll of late. Kendrick has allowed just four earned runs in his last 19.1 innings pitched. He has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. The Dodgers do not have many at-bats against Kendrick, but James Loney checks in at 6-for-10 against him.
  • Stephen Strasburg will take the ball in his return from the DL after suffering shoulder tightness. This will be an interesting outing for fantasy owners to watch. The Marlins have already seen Strasburg once and now will have time to study and adjust. How he deals with a team the second time around will be a huge factor going forward and this is the first test.
  • Look for Matt Diaz to be in the lineup tonight against J.A. Happ. Diaz is 5-for-7 with a home run against the Houston starter. Yes, it is a small sample, but those are some good numbers to use. Brian McCann is only 2-for-12 against Happ lifetime.
  • Spot Starts: Sanchez, Hellickson, Padilla

 

Wednesday Notes

  • There certainly needs to be some concern in throwing Javier Vazquez right now. Vazquez had a dead arm against Boston, an outing where he could not touch 90 with any of his pitches. Much of his success has been a result of his fastball. With that not there, be wary. Jorge Cantu is 5-for-11 against Vazquez.
  • Brandon Phillips is just 3-for-19 against Adam Wainwright. Surprisingly, he is the only player on the Reds with any sort of reliable track record against the St. Louis starter. Wainwright is 5-6 on the road this year. Overall, he has allowed one earned run or less in eight of his last 10 starts. His two blowups in that stretch? On the road.
  • Any Cardinals batters you would start should be good to go against Arroyo. Felipe Lopez is the big winner. He checks in at .417 with two home runs in 36 at-bats. Rasmus, Ryan, Pujols, and Schumaker are all hitting better than .300 with Matt Holliday not far behind at .273. Randy Winn is just 4-for-26, but he is likely not on your radar.
  • The Twins have raked against John Danks. Michael Cuddyer is the big winner, posting a .474 average and five home runs in 38 at-bats against him. Only Jason Kubel checks in below .300 of the regulars you are likely to start and his average is at .296. Danks has allowed 24 hits in 19 innings pitched against the Twins this season.
  • While everything went right for Zack Greinke last season, that has not been the case this year. Erick Aybar has pounded Greinke, going 7-for-14 against him overall. Torii Hunter may only be a .267 hitter, but he does have three home runs in 30 at-bats against the Kansas City starter. Greinke has struggled on the road this season, posting just a 2-6 record.
  • Spot Starts: Correia, Volstad, Bush

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball: Friday News and Notes

Last Night Rewind

  • Kevin Youkilis will have season-ending surgery to repair a torn muscle in his thumb suffered on Monday night. The injury is not expected to hinder his ability to be ready for Spring Training, but it does finish up what could have been an impressive 2010. Mike Lowell will get the bulk of the time at first base as his replacement in the meantime.
  • Carlos Santana will have surgery on his knee that could sideline him for four to six months. The team does not feel that it will jeopardize his 2011 season at this point. The operation is considered rare in baseball circles, but it certainly could have been much worse by all indications on the replays. Do not write him off for next year. Lou Marson will be the primary starter behind the plate for Cleveland now.
  • Another player is likely done for the rest of the year as well. Russell Martin has not made that statement, but manager Joe Torre is operating under that assumption. There is a strong possibility that the hip injury he suffered will require surgery and if it does it will certainly end his season. Martin made the point that he is looking more long-term than short with this injury.
  • Felix Hernandez is now 0-3 this season in four starts against the Rangers. As solid as he is, the Rangers simply seem to have his number this year. Hernandez gave up three runs on eight hits in 6.2 innings yesterday while striking out only three hitters.
  • The Nationals got good news yesterday after Stephen Strasburg threw 43 pitches in a simulated game yesterday. Strasburg felt no discomfort in the shoulder following the outing. He will throw a bullpen session over the weekend as well. Should things go well, Strasburg will take the mound on Tuesday to throw for Washington.

 

Friday Notes

  • Adrian Beltre has raked against Javier Vazquez, hitting .441 in 34 at-bats against him. David Ortiz and J.D. Drew are both well over .300 as well. Drew has hit four home runs in 28 at-bats against Vazquez. Look to avoid the 5-for-29 of Victor Martinez if you have better options available to you on your bench.
  • The Cubs have some ugly numbers against Bronson Arroyo. Alfonso Soriano is hitting only .190 in 42 at-bats while Aramis Ramirez is hitting only .205 in 39 at-bats. Derrek Lee struggles to a .235 mark and Kosuke Fukudome is 0-for-13. Marlon Byrd and Blake DeWitt at 4-for-10 are the best options available against Arroyo.
  • Time for me to stop recommending Dave Bush as a spot start option. While the numbers have been good, he is strictly out to make me a liar. Bush draws the Astros again, a team he is now 0-2 against this year. He has allowed eight earned runs in 16 innings against them overall with 19 hits and nine walks. Not too good there.
  • Wandy Rodriguez is the opposite of Bush this season. He has gone 2-0 against the Brewers so far and yielded just one run on 12 hits and two walks in 15 innings this year. Even with this, only Prince Fielder struggles against Rodriguez. He has hit just .233 against him. Look to start Corey Hart as he is at .400 in 35 at-bats.
  • Only Aaron Hill and Vernon Wells have been able to garner averages better than .300 against Matt Garza lifetime. Garza is 6-2 at home so far this season with batters hitting only .220 against him inside Tropicana Field. He can certainly be erratic, but the numbers bear out in this one. Start him with confidence.
  • Francisco Liriano is 3-0 this season against Cleveland, posting a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings against them. Even better, Liriano has not allowed a run in his last three starts overall, a total of 21 innings. Two good numbers worth starting against the lefty though. Asdrubal Cabrera is 8-for-15 against him and Shin Soo Choo is 3-for-10.
  • Albert Pujols is 6-for-12 against Ricky Nolasco and Matt Holliday is 7-for-11 against Florida starter Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco has won seven of his last eight starts and continues to generate plenty of strikeouts. Even with the numbers of these two hitters, Nolasco is still worth the start against the Cardinals in this one.
  • Justin Verlander has pitched well at home, posting a 7-2 record with a 2.65 ERA and .222 BAA. Verlander has been as solid against the Angels as well, going 2-0 when facing them this season. Mike Napoli, Howie Kendrick, and Juan Rivera should be avoided, as not one can crack .200 against the righty. Otherwise, any Angels you would start should still be good to go in this one.
  • How about Luis Castillo tonight against Joe Blanton? Castillo is 9-for-17 against the pitcher. Jeff Francoeur has good numbers as well. Jose Reyes and David Wright could do better. Reyes is only 1-for-12 while Wright checks in at 3-for-13. Blanton’s home ERA is ugly, coming in at 5.07 on the season.
  • Spot Starts: Niese, Hammel, Arroyo

 

Weekend Notes

  • As hot as Adrian Beltre is, he has just one hit in 19 at-bats against C.C. Sabathia. Jacoby Ellsbury has not been good since coming back and he is only 1-for-13 while Bill Hall is just 1-for-11. Victor Martinez and J.D. Drew struggle as well. Only Marco Scutaro at .333 is worth the start in this one.
  • James Shields is on a roll, winning his last three starts. The Blue Jays, though, have solid individual numbers against him. Adam Lind is 9-for-27 with three home runs against Shields and Lyle Overbay is 11-for-36 with three home runs as well. Vernon Wells checks in with a .290 mark and Jose Bautista is 4-for-9.
  • Jimmy Rollins and Jayson Werth have gone a combined 6-for-16 against Johan Santana. Raul Ibanez is 15-for-42 while Placido Polanco is 12-for-29. Santana, after a dominant run, has given up 11 runs in his last 12.2 innings of work. He was roughed up by the Phillies in his only other start against them this season.
  • Randy Wolf has allowed only one run in 13 innings this season against the Astros. Jeff Keppinger is only 4-for-19 and Hunter Pence checks in at only 3-for-14 against Wolf lifetime. Pedro Feliz has 19 at-bats against Wolf and has managed three home runs and a .316 average against him. Carlos Lee is 5-for-20.
  • Mike Lowell is only 4-for-20 against A.J. Burnett, and Jed Lowrie checks in at only 2-for-12. Jacoby Ellbury, Marco Scutaro, and Adrian Beltre are all hitting better than .300 against Burnett and Victor Martinez is at .273. David Ortiz has three home runs in 39 at- bats.
  • Mark Teixeira is only 4-for-28 and Lance Berkman is just 3-for-18 against Josh Beckett lifetime. Curtis Granderson has struggled as well. Posada, Cano, Jeter, and Rodriguez are your best and only decent options against Beckett for this one. Cano has hit three home runs off Beckett in 52 at-bats.
  • Avoid Freddy Sanchez against Derek Lowe. Sanchez is only 2-for-15 against Lowe. Aaron Rowand is worth the start in this one as he is 11-for-23 against him. Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff are worth keeping in your fantasy lineups here as well. Lowe is 7-3 at home this season with a 3.92 ERA in his own park and is already 1-0 against the Giants this year.
  • Michael Young is 5-for-13 against Trevor Cahill and Josh Hamilton is 3-for-11. Those are the best numbers you will get from the Rangers in this one. Look to avoid the 1-for-10 of Nelson Cruz and the 2-for-11 of Vladimir Guerrero. Elvis Andrus is no better at only 3-for-17.
  • Mat Latos continues to win ball games and he draws a struggling Arizona team that should be able to provide him with some strikeouts to pad his numbers. Latos is 7-3 on the road this season with a 2.66 road ERA. Batters are hitting just .191 against him away from home, proving that he is pitching just as well outside Petco Park as he is inside.
  • Spot Starts: Gonzalez, Richard, Wells, Lowe, Duensing

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Fantasy Baseball: Thursday News and Notes

 

Kickoff Notes

  • Clay Buchholz will make a rehab start with Triple-A Pawtucket on Friday. Buchholz has been sidelined with a hamstring injury and this will be the first step in the process of getting him back on the mound. The hope is for a short stay in the minors and that he will be available to pitch for the Red Sox next week.
  • The Blue Jays sent Alex Gonzalez over to Atlanta for Yunel Escobar. While Escobar is struggling offensively, the .250-hitting Gonzalez only seems to provide more power and not much else. Gonzalez is hitting home runs like they are going out of style, but he has hit just .246 over his last 75 games. Not exactly lighting the world on fire.
  • Rumors are flying that Alex Rodriguez did not play in the All-Star game due to a thumb injury. Brian Cashman dismissed them and stated that the injury was nothing to talk about and not the reason Rodriguez did not play in Tuesday’s game. While he does have a minor injury, expect him to be in the lineup for the Yankees as the second half begins and this just fades away.
  • Jake Peavy underwent successful surgery to repair the detached muscle in his throwing shoulder. Peavy is certainly not expected to do anything the rest of the way, but feels that he is certainly in line for a spring return. Do yourself the favor of dropping him, because there is no way he helps going forward. He was still nearly 50 percent owned in ESPN leagues earlier this week.
  • Looking for a few second half predictions? There are five of them located on this post here and a bonus sixth can be found here . Check it out and get your lineups ready to go for the second half!

 

Thursday Notes

  • Tim Wakefield gets the ball at home for Boston, and the confines have not been kind to him this season. Wakefield is just 1-4 at home with a 5.89 ERA. Batters have hit seven home runs against him in 55 innings pitched. Vladimir Guerrero needs to be in your lineup. He is 10-for-23 against Wakefield with five home runs. Newly-acquired Bengie Molina is 7-for-20. Michael Young has struggled to a .234 mark in 47 at-bats and Ian Kinsler is just 2-for-13.
  • John Danks has allowed only two earned runs in 15 innings since the start of July and has held teams to three earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. In only one of those five did he fail to complete the seventh inning. That said, start Michael Cuddyer. He is 18-for-36 with five home runs against Danks. In fact, all Twins except Nick Punto (2-for-21) are hitting better than .290 against Danks.
  • Look to avoid Paul Konerko against Kevin Slowey. Konerko is only 3-for-17 against the Minnesota starter. Alex Rios is 5-for-13 and Alexei Ramirez is 5-for-12. A.J. Pierzynski is not a bad start either at 4-for-11. Carlos Quentin slows the pace down at just 2-for-10. Slowey pitched well in his relief appearance before the break, but has struggled of late with his ankle injury.
  • Chone Figgins has struggled when facing Joel Pineiro. Figgins is only 4-for-21 against the pitcher lifetime. If you are desperate enough to start Jack Wilson, he is 7-for-12 against Pineiro. Only Milton Bradley has enough at-bats to make a dent otherwise and he is 5-for-19 against Pineiro. Pineiro is 6-2 at home this season and batters are hitting just .230 against him in his own park.
  • Doug Fister has given up 10 earned runs in his last three starts since returning from the DL. Fister gave up just one run in his last outing, but needed 97 pitches to get through six innings. The damage there could have been much worse than the one run, as he gave up six hits and two walks in that start against the Royals.
  • All-Star hero Brian McCann may be able to hit some of the better pitchers in baseball, but he is only 1-for-11 against Dave Bush. Troy Glaus is 3-for-12 and is the only other starter with enough at-bats to take note. Check out Bush’s last five starts. He has pitched at least six innings and given up two or fewer runs in all of them, good for a 2.30 ERA in his last 31.2 innings.
  • Aramis Ramirez is only 1-for-14 against Jamie Moyer, while Alfonso Soriano is at just .232 in 56 at-bats. In his 13 hits, Soriano does have four home runs, but that is all he has going for him. Derrek Lee is 5-for-13 and Ryan Theriot is 5-for-15. Moyer has struggled on the road at just 4-5, but he had a run of solid outing before being beaten his last time out.
  • Not outstanding numbers for the Dodgers against Chris Carpenter. Jamey Carroll is 6-for-16 and Russell Martin is 3-for-10, but those are the only player above .300. Still, the only ones to really avoid would be Casey Blake at 1-for-10 and James Loney at 2-for-11.
  • Lefties are really struggling against Ryan Dempster this year, hitting just .209. The biggest one in the Phillies lineup is Ryan Howard, who is only 2-for-9 against Dempster to begin with. Where Dempster has pitched well at home, holding all batters to a .201 mark, benching Howard may not be the worst idea.
  • Spot Starts: Tommy Hunter, Slowey, Bush

Friday Notes

  • The Yankees have some tough numbers against James Shields. Mark Teixeira is 4-for-23 while Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson check in at 4-for-20 and 2-for-20 respectively. Jorge Posada is at .211 in 19 at-bats and Nick Swisher is only 2-for-14. Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter are the only regulars worth the start.
  • Numbers go the other way largely for the Rays against C.C. Sabathia. Only Carlos Pena looks to be a hold out given his .138 average in 29 at-bats. B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist give the best averages on the Rays in this matchup, but Jason Bartlett is no slouch at .289.
  • Gavin Floyd puts his impressive run on the line against the Twins. Floyd has allowed only seven earned runs in his last seven starts covering 50.1 innings of work. He is 3-1 in that stretch. Jason Kubel is a .360 hitter with three home runs in 25 at-bats while Denard Span is 8-for-14. Might want to look elsewhere other than these two, though. Even Justin Morneau is a .231 hitter in 26 at-bats while Delmon Young is 3-for-14 and Michael Cuddyer is 4-for-20.
  • Ichiro is hitting only .255 in 47 at-bats against Jered Weaver. Only Jose Lopez at .295 gets within a sniff of .300 and would be the only solid starting option for the Mariners. Weaver has struggled with his ERA against the Mariners, posting a 4.21 ERA in his last 13 starts, but he is 7-2 in that time. He is 1-0 against them this year and has not allowed an earned run in 14.1 innings.
  • Zach Duke will get the ball against Houston for his first start since June 16th. Duke has been sidelined with a strained elbow. He pitched well in two rehab starts and is 2-4 with a 3.25 ERA against Houston lifetime. Pedro Feliz is 1-for-11 against Duke while Lance Berkman is 6-for-24 and Carlos Lee is 7-for-26.
  • Spot Starts: Gonzalez, Hammel, Duke

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball: Second Half Predictions

With the All-Star break finally upon us, fantasy owners have time to take a breath and determine exactly where they are and what they can do to improve over the final few months of the season. Now is usually the time that stock can be taken.

When an owner looks up and down the various statistical leaderboards, there are many familiar names, but there are others that do not necessarily look like they belong. Is it time to buy on those that are less owned? Should an owner sell on a player that may not carry that the rest of the season. And, probably as important, will struggling players rebound.

All that in mind, here are five predictions for the second half.

Corey Hart Will Come Back to Earth…

Hart has impressed many and has with good reason. After a disappointing 2009 campaign, Hart has rebounded early in 2010 and has already exceeded his home run total of a year ago by nine and his RBI number by 17 in 34 fewer games.

Overall, every one of his offensive numbers is on pace to be far better than anything he was able to put together in 2009. Still, whether or not he is on pace for 35 to 40 home runs and 115 RBI should be up for some debate when an owner looks at the overall numbers.

Hart’s BABIP is not far off from where it was last season. In 2009, he put up a number of .305 and he has moved it up just a tick to .309 this season. His strikeout rate has hardly changed as that still hovers between 22 and 23 percent and his walk rate is largely consistent. The question really has to come in what the differences are from one year to the next. Anyone looking at the overall stats can see that it comes in the home run aspect and how many he continues to hit.

His HR/FB ratio is 18.8 percent! Nearly 20 percent of the fly balls that he hits are leaving the yard. Add to that, his fly ball rate has increased by five points. What does that mean? Not only is he hitting more fly balls for home runs, but more fly balls on the whole. It compounds the overall issue.

It is not that Hart has not hit more than 20 home runs before; he reached that plateau in both 2007 and 2008. In those years, this rate was 9.9 percent in 2008 and 13.3 percent in 2007. The increase even from those good years is astronomical. It is ten points better than the number he saw last season. Add to that, Hart is hitting fewer groundballs than he has at any point in his career.

Hart is not likely to hit another 15-20 home runs this season. Look for his numbers to be .270/11/35 the rest of the way. Selling high would not be a bad thing.

…and Nick Swisher Will Too

Look, there will be some that claim I am anti-Yankee (fair point), but Swisher’s numbers here make little to no sense. This is a player with a career-high average of .262 back in 2007 prior to his half-season .298 number in 2010. This is the same player that hit .219 two years ago and only .249 in a launching pad of a ballpark last season.

Color me skeptical that he will be able to keep up this pace. The power and the improved strikeout rate we can debate, but the overall production levels are statistical outliers that cannot be sustained by historical performance review.

There are two key differences and they relate to only one. Swisher is hitting more balls on the line which are resulting in more luck and thus a drastically improved BABIP. His .341 BABIP is nearly 60 points better than his career mark and his 6.1 point increase in line drives is nearly identical to that same reduction in ground balls.

He is swinging at many more pitches, as indicated by a ten point jump in the overall number of percent of pitches where he swings and the resulting six-point drop in his walk rate from 2009. Not only is he swinging more frequently, he is making contact all that more often, seeing the same ten point jump.

Could he simply be having a career year? Of course, but that would be one crazy career year where every bit of logic refused to make sense. I do not want to live in that world. 

Post-break, expect that he hits far closer to .250 than he does .300. He will produce another ten to 12 home runs and 40 RBI. Far from bad numbers, but also ones you will be able to find nearly anywhere.

Carlos Lee Will Rebound

Even in the Steroid Era, .300 hitters do not become .240 hitters overnight. They may go from 40 home runs to 20, but the average is largely more consistent than the power. Lee is in the midst of the worst season of his career. He has driven in 100 runs in each of the last five seasons and six of the last seven, only missing in 2004 when he drove in 99.

This is a career .289 hitter that has not hit below .300 since 2004 that is struggling to find a way to even get the ball out of the infield. The question has to be asked if this is going to continue or what the correction will be.

Statistically, not much seems different in the more granular numbers. He is hitting fewer line drives, meaning that he is not making as solid contact, and that is the major change. The fly balls are up as a result.

Lee is not striking out any more often than he has in the past, though he is up over his number from 2009. Beyond the fly balls, Lee is simply not garnering any overall luck when he does put the ball in play. In fact, his BABIP of .236 is lower than his overall average of .240. That in itself is a statistical oddity!

What does all this mean for the second half? Let us assume there is some return to normalcy. Lee has about 300 at-bats left on the year if he remains healthy. With a career number of .289, that would mean about 87 more hits. Given about 340 total plate appearances, and adjusting to some normal levels, he probably hits close to 15 home runs the rest of the way, giving him 27 for the year and right in line with his totals the previous two.

Not saying that he will drive in 100, but he could. He drove in 100 runs in 115 games just two years ago. Using that same rate, he could find a way to drive in close to 70 runs in the remaining games. Even if that number is closer to 55, that would not be unheard of and would still give him 100 RBI on the season. That number would largely mean driving runs in at his career rate of nearly 0.67 RBI per game.

Remember, as owners we cannot look at what this does overall, only what we can take from him the rest of the way. Still, .285/15/55 would be worth buying low.

The Rookie Pitcher to Own in the Second Half is Not Necessarily Stephen Strasburg

Look, I like the guy as much as the next fantasy analyst, but there are two other pitchers that need to be on the radar of all owners as we look at the second half. Some of this will depend on moves made at the trading deadline, but even with additional pitchers added, these guys should be more than ready to make an impact for owners.

Various rumors out of Tampa have the Rays potentially shopping around Matt Garza. Add him to the troubles they are having with Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann leaving his start yesterday to a back injury and you have what amounts to an opportunity for a certain young pitcher in Durham.

Jeremy Hellickson is sitting with an 11-2 record in Triple-A with a WHIP of 1.14 and a 2.21 ERA. in 105 innings, he has struck out 104 batters and kept his walk rate to 2.2 per nine innings.

To say that he has very little left to prove in the minors is an understatement. With Wade Davis unable to get anyone out in the number five spot of the rotation, Hellickson would be a natural player to swap. Add to that the potential of a trade and you have spots where he can be useful. Fantasy owners should look at the strikeouts and peripheral stats here when he is called up. Even deeper mixed leagues will be able to use the stats he can provide.

The other name comes out of Chicago. The injury to Jake Peavy likely has the White Sox looking to shop outside of their organization as the deadline approaches, but should they choose to stay internal they could do worse than Dan Hudson. The young pitcher has overcome a rough start to find himself at 11-4 with 108 strikeouts in 93 innings at Triple-A. He has complemented those numbers with a 1.20 WHIP and 3.47 ERA in the early going. The White Sox have some decisions to make here, but they could do worse than filling the void with one of the better pitching prospects in baseball.

There are Plenty of Other Rebound Players to Buy

Several players have spent the bulk of the season injured and could certainly take the second half by storm. Jacoby Ellsbury is at the top of my list. After the Red Sox finally discovered the cracked ribs that occurred as a result of the human wrecking ball Adrian Beltre, he was put on the right program. Ellsbury is resuming baseball activity and expects to be able to rejoin the team in early August.

Given that Boston has thrown out Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava, Eric Patterson, Jeremy Hermida, and a host of others, it is probably safe to say that Ellsbury will be back with some playing time. He can still steal bases; the only question for owners will be his ability to get the timing of his swing back.

Carlos Beltran will be back with the Mets on Thursday night. The plan is for him to play center field and hit cleanup. If he is doing that, he is worth looking at. The question many have, and should, is how often he will be able to play. Beltran’s recent exam showed improvement in the knee, but it is highly unlikely that he plays every day from now until the end of the season. The Mets will progress with him carefully, but another great buy-low option.

We should even throw in Matt Wieters and Jimmy Rollins here as well. Wieters is currently outside of the top-20 catchers in fantasy rankings, but he is showing signs of life. Add to that, he hit over .300 after the All-Star break last year.

Jimmy Rollins is a second half player as well that should be able to provide better average and speed even if he cannot produce the power numbers. His average has jumped 20 points after the break over the last three years.

As is cursory, remember that both Nick Markakis, A.J. Burnett, and Adam LaRoche are solid second half players given their career numbers.

Want more fun and excitement? You can follow Collin on Twitter @CWHager.

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Fantasy Baseball: Finding Diamonds on Waivers

So, you are struggling and cannot seem to get out of your own way. The fantasy offense you put together is slumping and your pitching staff continues to be lackluster at best.

What can you do?

The best players are gone off of waivers and the only players left are scraps. Nothing that can fix your team, right? Wrong. Take a look at these comparisons of players over the last 30 days. Even when there is nothing seemingly available, something can help you out if you know where and how to look.

All stats are over the last 30 days.

Player A: .294 AVG, 6HR, 18 RBI, 13 runs, 15 percent owned
Player B: .284 AVG, 6HR, 17 RBI, 16 runs, 100 percent owned

While you certainly would not be out to cut Player B, having Player A on your roster would certainly have helped soften the blow!

In this scenario, Player B is Albert Pujols while Player A is Russell Branyan. Since being traded to Seattle, Branyan has found himself steady playing time and has found the swing that made fantasy owners drool early in 2009.

What is the point? There is some help available for those that need power out of the corners if only to ride the wave of the hot hand.

Player A: .242 AVG, 6HR, 20 RBI, 11 runs, 84 percent owned
Player B: .250 AVG, 4HR, 21 RBI ,15 runs. 23 percent owned

In deeper leagues, there are those that are required to play a corner infield position. These leagues often go to places that most owners never dare to venture. There would be no other way to explain the ownership of some players at all.

In this case, though, we are talking about a very limited difference to gain some decent numbers in these deeper arenas.

Do either have spectacular numbers?

No. If you were looking to make a trade for Player A, though, you would be just as well off picking up Player B.

In this case, Player A is Adam LaRoche while Player B is Ike Davis. Not a big swing in the numbers, but one will cost you much less and hurt you very little if you need to make a change at the position.

Player A: .382 AVG, 1HR, 10 RBI, 15 runs scored, 54 percent owned
Player B: .350 AVG, 2HR, 12 RBI, 14 runs scored, 100 percent owned

Let us start by saying that Player B has not performed up to any sort of expectations this year beyond hitting for a solid average. In every other capacity, the draft pick that was spent on him does not necessarily correlate to the production being received.

That player is Orioles outfielder Nick Markakis. Markakis is drafted early enough each year that many continue to hope for the .325/30/100 type season that he is thought to be able to produce.

It just has not been there of late.

Player A may not have the same cache, but he is worth owning over the long-term.

That outfielder is David DeJesus.

The Kansas City stalwart has hit for average and is producing as effectively in as equally poor a lineup. Best part, he did not cost owners a top-five round choice.

Player A: .320 AVG, 3HR, 15 RBI, 15 runs scored, 1SB, 100 percent owned
Player B: .314 AVG, 4HR, 14 RBI, 15 runs scored, 7SB, 50 percent owned

Right now, this is my favorite comparison. Player A is on one of his patented hot streaks where he hits well over .300 for a stretch before going down in flames and hitting .200 for another stretch. Just how he rolls.

Owners that have had Dan Uggla, our Player A, on their roster know this for a fact. He is fantastic in stretches. Then there are times when he will not hit a home run for what feels like weeks.

Another second basemen though is on the prowl. Injuries forced the Rays to use Sean Rodriguez, Player B, more than they probably anticipated.

Now, the struggles of Jason Bartlett and B.J. Upton have opened up spots for him to continue to get regular playing time.

Rodriguez had quite the month and it is still largely going unnoticed. Given the injuries to players like Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley, it is a surprise that he is not more widely owned already.

Grab him now and hold him hostage for the owners that were slow on the uptake.

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Fantasy Baseball: Thursday News and Notes

Last Night Rewind

  • Not a bad night for Buster Posey. The San Francisco Giants catcher smacked two home runs and drove in six to lead the Giants to a 15-2 win over the Brewers. Posey’s home runs included his first career grand slam and he had four hits in total on the night.
  • If you read the blog yesterday you likely saw that Jamie Moyer needed to be on the bench against the Atlanta Braves. That proved to be true as the Braves got to Moyer for seven runs in 5.1 innings and managed to hit three home runs in the process. The loss broke a string of four consecutive quality starts that began after his implosion against Boston.
  • Adam Dunn had a three-home run night for the Washington Nationals on Wednesday. Dunn drove in five overall and became the first Nationals player since 2006 and only the second since they were the Expos in 1987 to have a three home run game. It also is the 10th year in a row that Dunn has hit at least 20 home runs.
  • Tim Wakefield had no control over the knuckle ball last night. Though he surrendered only four hits in 5.2 innings, he walked six batters and allowed six runs to score. Nothing about the night was pretty for the Boston starter, and his ERA jumped to 5.22 after the disaster of a night.
  • Have to fall on my sword with Joe Saunders. He was destroyed last night, lasting just 5.2 innings and giving up 10 hits and five earned runs. Saunders had pitched well in Chicago historically, but this was nothing short of a disaster. Saunders was coming off two solid starts, so things lined up, but this did not work out for anyone.

Thursday Notes

  • Roy Oswalt’s 1-8 record at home looks ugly, but when you consider batters are only hitting .245 against him and he has a sub-4.00 ERA, you can see that the issues are more on offense and not in pitching. Oswalt has already recorded a win against the Pittsburgh Pirates this season, and he is pitching too well to worry about the win aspect that is out of his control.
  • Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro both have good numbers against Andy Pettitte. Gutierrez is 5-for-12 with a home run while Ichiro has hit .389. Look to avoid the 5-for-23 of Jack Wilson and the 3-for-13 of Jose Lopez. Pettitte is 3-0 this season on the road with a 2.59 ERA.
  • Mark Kotsay is worth the start against Ervin Santana. Konerko is 10-for-24. Teammates Juan Pierre and Alex Rios are both hitting better than .350 against Santana and should be in your lineup as well. Look to avoid the 4-for-22 and 4-for-21 of Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski in this one.
  • Scott Baker is 1-5 on the road this season with a 6.55 ERA away from home this season. He has given up 10 home runs in 45.2 innings of work on the road and batters are hitting .325 against him. Baker had a good outing against the Tampa Bay Rays last time out, but it was another home outing.
  • The San Diego Padres are going to move Mat Latos back into the rotation over the next several weeks. He will get the ball in this one on Wednesday. The Padres are looking to control his innings in case they are in a pennant race in the latter half of the season. Latos is 5-2 on the road with a 2.93 ERA.
  • Barry Zito has had two rough starts in his last three outings. In total, he has given up 13 runs on 13 hits in his last 15.1 innings over those three appearances. Zito has not been able to get a win since June 12th and has seen his ERA jump by 1.50 runs since May 16th.
  • John Danks is just 4-4 at home, but he has kept his ERA to 3.10 in those nine starts there this season. Batters continue to struggle against him in his own park, hitting only .226. Keep Bobby Abreu in the lineup. He is 4-for-10 with two home runs against Danks and Torii Hunter hits .292 in 24 trips to the plate. Erick Aybar is the only concern at just 3-for-16.
  • Chris Carpenter is coming off his shortest outing of the season, but he has held most of the Colorado Rockies lineup in check. Clint Barnes is only 2-for-12 while Brad Hawpe, who continues to struggle over the last 30 days, is only 3-for-13. Carpenter is too good not to be able to rebound, even with a nagging forearm injury. If he is healthy to go, he should be in your lineup here.
  • Vladimir Guerrero is just 1-for-17 against Jeremy Guthrie, but teammate Michael Young has hit him well, going 6-for-15 with a home run. Ian Kinsler should be back in the lineup tonight as well, and he is a .357 hitter against Guthrie.
  • Spot Starts: Wells, Sanchez, Cecil

Friday Notes

  • Expect to see Jose Molina get the call behind the plate for the Toronto Blue Jays. He is 5-for-13 against Jon Lester and has the only average above .250 on the Blue Jays. Vernon Wells is only 5-for-21 and Jose Bautista is 4-for-20. Aaron Hill has really struggled as well at just 2-for-20. Avoid any Blue Jays you can in this one.
  • After back-to-back rough road outings, Justin Verlander rebounded with a solid home start his last time out. The win improved him to 5-2 at home with a 2.63 ERA this season. It is where he will get Minnesota on Friday. Few decent numbers for the Twins. Keep Denard Span in the lineup, a .435 hitter against Verlander. Jason Kubel is at .357 and Joe Mauer is at .350. Jim Thome may hit just .244, but seven of his 10 hits have been home runs. Look t avoid the 5-for-37 of Michael Cuddyer.
  • Jorge de la Rosa will get the ball coming off the DL against the Padres on Friday. He pitched well in two of his three rehab starts and had struck out 23 batters in 26 innings prior to being injured. Scott Hairston is 4-for-10 against the Colorado starter and has had two home runs to boot. Adrian Gonzalez is only 4-for-18.
  • The sample might be big enough to say that you should sit David DeJesus against Mark Buehrle. In 72 at-bats, he has just one home run and holds a .181 average. Alberto Callaspo is no better in a smaller sample, checking in at 2-for-19. Mitch Maier should go in this one, as he is 8-for-19. Bloomquist, Butler, and Aviles are all worth the start.
  • Adam Wainwright still pitches well away from home but he holds only a 3-5 record. Look to avoid Carlos Lee. He is only 1-for-23 against Wainwright. Michael Bourn is 7-for-21 and Hunter Pence checks in at .310. Lance Berkman can only find his way to .240 but does have two home runs in 25 at-bats.
  • Spot Starts: Norris, Pineiro, Leake

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