Kuzul

Last year, Clay Buchholz was one of the bigger surprises in baseball. In his first full season on the MLB level, he finished with a 17-7 record, 2.33 ERA (second in the AL), and a 1.20 WHIP.

He finished sixth in Cy Young voting, and might have garnered more attention had he not missed nearly a month of the season from June to July.

It’s also worth a mention that Buchholz was the clear winner when it came to ERA+ (park adjusted ERA). His 187 ERA+ was the best total in the AL, well ahead of guys like Felix Hernandez (174), and David Price (145).

However, a closer look at the stats might indicate that Buchholz was somewhat “lucky” in 2010.

His BABIP (batting average against balls in play) was .265, a fairly low average. BABIP is used to measure how well a team fielded around a pitcher, and to a certain extent how fortunate a pitcher was that uncontrollable circumstances, like hit location, contact, and team fielding, worked in his favor. 

Also, some of Buchholz’s peripheral stats weren’t as favorable. His 6.22 K/9 was lower than the league average of 7.13. His 3.47 BB/9 was higher than the league average of 3.28.

Also, despite a 31.5% fly ball rate, Buchholz gave up just nine home runs all season long. Additionally, his 0.47 HR/9 rate was lower than the league average of 0.96.

Given the fact that Buchholz makes roughly half his starts in one of the better hitters’ parks in all of baseball, and has to make a few appearances per year in Yankee Stadium, Camden Yards, and the Rogers Centre (all favorable hitters’ parks), such a favorable bottom line, given his less-than-stellar peripherals, could be interpreted as “luck,” at least to a certain extent.

Logical? Sure. Is it relevant information? Definitely. Does that mean Buchholz is due for a large drop off next year? Well, not necessarily. 

For starters, I should disprove the fact that the Red Sox had a good defense in 2010. Despite an offseason campaign that boldy pronounced the new goals of “pitching and defense,” the Red Sox struggled in both aspects.

Much of the sabermetrical goodness that helps determine how fluky a pitchers season was is hinged on the fact that they either did or didn’t have a good defense behind them, or performed in favorable or unfavorable pitchers parks.

Well, the Sox didn’t have a good defense last year. Just take a look at some of their defensive totals and metrics:

They committed 111 errors (23rd most in baseball), featured a .982 fielding percentage (23rd worst overall, third worst in AL), -2.3 UZR/150 (21st worst overall, fourth worst in AL), -15.1 UZR (23rd worst overall, third worst in AL), and a -3.0 ARM rating (19th worst overall, fifth worst in AL).

Even if you aren’t familiar with all of these statistical measurements, they all mean one thing: the Red Sox were a subpar fielding team in virtually every aspect of the game.

Much of this has to do with Gold Glovers going down (Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis), injuries to solid fielders (Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, Marco Scutaro), and the subsequent defensive shuffling that resulted (Bill Hall, Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava, Jed Lowrie, Kevin Cash, Eric Patterson, Ryan Kalish, Yaimaico Navarro, etc., etc., etc.).

For virtually the entire second half of the 2010 season, the Red Sox were putting out an entirely different lineup each night.

So, unless you’re going to tell me that every ball was hit at Adrian Beltre while Buchholz was on the mound, you can’t really credit Buchholz’s success to a solid defense.

Also, it’s fairly obvious that Buchholz loses when it comes to performing in pitcher friendly venues. Eighteen of his 28 starts (nearly 65%) were made in Fenway Park, Yankee Stadium, Rogers Centre, Camden Yards, or U.S. Cellular Field.

All four parks were eighth or higher in PPF (park pitching factor) in 2010, which measures how much a park favors either the hitter or the pitcher. All five parks significantly favored the hitter.

Clay didn’t have a great defense behind him, and he didn’t perform in pitcher-friendly parks. It would be nearly impossible to attribute his success to either of these factors.

However, Clay’s peripherals still weren’t that great. But, there’s still a reason that he posted the microscopic ERA that he did. 

For starters, Buchholz at age 26 already has some of the best stuff in baseball. His changeup is already comparable to guys like Johan Santana and Cole Hamels.

He throws a left-handed changeup as a right-handed pitcher, which has always been his calling card around the league.

However, it might be Buchholz’s fastball that does the most damage. I once heard Kevin Millar (former Red Sox player and Baltimore Oriole present during Buchholz’s no-hitter in 2007) describe it as a “heavy fastball.”

This description does it justice. What Millar meant has nothing to do with the actual weight of the ball; rather, Buchholz throws it with such force and such movement, that it actually appears to be going faster than it is.

Last year, he averaged 94.1 mph on his fastball, and he’s capable of getting it up into the high ’90’s if need be. He throws both a regular and cut fastball, and is capable of locating it to either half of the plate, up or down.

When it comes to win value for fastballs, Buchholz was in esteemed company in 2010:

Of the 10 players on this list, seven finished with a sub-3.00 ERA. Only Matt Cain (3.14), Cliff Lee (3.18), and Ted Lilly (3.62) finished with ERA’s higher than 3.00.

Also, of the 10 players on this list, eight used changeups as a significant part of their repertoire. The two who didn’t were Tim Hudson and Ted Lilly.

Hudson relied heavily on his fastball in 2010, throwing it 63.8% of the time. He limited his walks (2.9 BB/9) and kept the ball on the ground (1.81 Ground Ball/Fly Ball; 2.77 Ground Outs/Air Outs).

Lilly also relied heavily on his fastball, and mixed in a mediocre to ineffective curve, slider, and change-up. His lack of a second above-average pitch is probably why he has the highest ERA of anyone in this group.

But what does this all have to do with Buchholz? My point is that a prominent fastball-changeup combination is the best in baseball for getting weak contact and swings and misses.

Other guys not mentioned here who feature a strong fastball and changeup: Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, CC Sabathia, Jered Weaver, Roy Oswalt, Josh Johnson…you get the idea.

All of these guys use their combo’s in different ways and to varying degrees of success and overall usage, but all of these guys can be described as having above average fastballs and change-ups.

I think this is the overwhelming reason why Buchholz’ bottom line was so good last year. Because of his ability as a pitcher, he was able to overcome a great deal of the mistakes he made on the mound.

For instance, with RISP (runners in scoring position), batters hit just .161 off Buchholz with 0 HR.

With RISP and two outs, batters hit just .109 off Buchholz, scoring 11 runs on just 7 hits in 64 total AB’s.

These stats are important for a number of different reasons. First, Buchholz’ one biggest problem was always the mental aspect of the game. He often struggled with his focus, especially when he had runners on base. Well, that obviously wasn’t much of an issue in 2010.

Secondly, it’s important to note that Buchholz is capable of putting up such good numbers when he has a season where his peripheral stats were, for the most part, lower than his career averages.

In 447.0 total innings of minor league work across parts of six seasons, Buchholz has accumulated 508 strikeouts. That’s a 10.2 K/9 ratio.

Buchholz is a strikeout pitcher who hasn’t started striking people out yet (just 120 in 173.2 IP last year). Obviously, a fastball-changeup combination lends itself most readily to getting swings and misses.

The fact that he didn’t strike as many batters out last year shows again that Buchholz was focused more on pitching, not just throwing. It’s not a question of if Buchholz starts striking more batters out, it’s when. 

Buchholz’ overall major league 3.8 BB/9 ratio isn’t stellar, but he posted a 2.5 BB/9 ratio in the minor leagues.

Again, if you’ve ever seen Buchholz work, he’s not really someone you can characterize as wild. As he gets older and gains more major league experience, it would be reasonable to expect a dip in walks.

All signs point to an improvement in peripheral stats in 2011 and beyond. 

While it might be easy to characterize Buchholz’ 2.33 ERA as “lucky,” there are few pitchers who post averages that small without some sort of regression.

The fact that Buchholz hasn’t yet peaked should delight Red Sox fans; he’s only going to get better as time goes on.

Prediction for 2011: 19-9, 2.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 199 SO

Dan is a Boston Red Sox and Celtics featured columnist. Follow him on Twitter at danhartelbr.

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Rafael Soriano has signed a three-year, $35 million dollar deal according to multiple reports. The former Ray was 45-48 in save chances in 2010, which led the AL.

Of American League relievers with at least 40 innings of work, Soriano was fifth in ERA (1.73) and second in WHIP (0.80).

The move marks the first major addition for the Yankees this offseason, who have thus far been considered one of the biggest losers in this year’s free agency bonanza.

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Last week, WEEI’s Alex Speier reported that Mike Cameron had no wish to leave Boston. Despite an offseason that clearly puts Cameron as the fourth OF on a solid outfield—both offensively and defensively—the 38-year-old vet with 16 years of MLB service is content with his role as a backup.

The Red Sox have listened to offers for Cameron and probably will continue to do so for the rest of the offseason. After all, Cameron is due a hefty $7.25 million for the remainder of 2011.

However, it’s no shock that a team might not be willing to take on the large contract of an aging outfielder, and Cameron could very well open the season on the Red Sox 25-man roster.

Last season was a bit of a struggle, to say the least, for both Cameron and the Red Sox. Cameron appeared in just 48 games all season long, the lowest total since he became a full time player in 1997 and only the second time he’s played less than 100 games in a season (2005 the only other season).

In all, he made just 162 at bats, batting .259/.328/.401/.729, with four HR and 15 RBI. He struggled with injuries for most of the season, suffering from kidney stones early on and eventually succumbing to an abdomen tear when he received the season-ending surgery in June.

Perhaps the biggest surprise, however, was Cameron’s shoddy defense. Even before injuries hampered his mobility, Cameron had problems fielding in Fenway Park. He made two errors in just 392.0 innings of work, and his UZR/150 was an atrocious -28.2.

It makes a good deal of sense for Cameron to want to stay in Boston. After a lackluster 2010, the fact that he is making a good deal of money on a championship contender is quite fortunate.

However, Cameron has an unique opportunity going forward in 2011. If he opens the season with the Red Sox, he has a good chance to make a significant impact, albeit in a reserve role.

It’s no secret that the Red Sox have a large number of left-handed batters in their lineup. All three outfielders are left-handed, in addition to DH David Ortiz. Cameron has the skillset to fill in for all four of these players on a regular basis. He also provides a failsafe if Ortiz isn’t able to get it going, or if Ellsbury struggles initially after missing so much time.

We could see Tito use him as a regular pinch-hitter for either Ellsbury or Drew. And given Drew’s considerable struggles against left-handed pitching, Cameron has the potential to emerge in a quasi-platoon split in right field:

Against LHP 2010: 149 AB, 4 HR, 19 RBI, .208/.302/.309/.611.

Cameron has to improve his defense if he wants to be relied on as a late-inning pinch hitter. All three starting outfielders for the Sox are great defenders, so it won’t fare well for Cameron if he’s unable to perform in the field late in the game.

However, Cameron is also a three-time Gold Glove winner and has consistently been one of the better defensive outfielders in baseball. Given the fact that he was injured early on, he was never able to gain any form of consistency in the field.

His bat is exactly what they need, however: a power-hitting righty who can occasionally fill in for the numerous lefties occupying the lineup.

Cameron actually gave them pretty good offensive effort during the month of July last season, albeit in a very small sample size:

July: 60 AB, 3 HR, 7 RBI, .250/.333/.483/.817 batting line.

That’s the type of offensive production the Sox were looking for when they signed him initially. If they can get that in a backup role, then Cameron will be golden, so long as he fixes his defense.

Cameron is going to get the opportunity to become an integral part of the 2011 Red Sox championship run. Hopefully for Red Sox fans, he makes good.

Dan is a Boston Red Sox Featured Columnist. For more news, stories, and opinion, follow him on twitter at danhartelBR.

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Max Ramirez is on his way to Boston, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan.

The move comes after the Rangers designated the former top catching prospect for assignment in order to make room for Brandon Webb and Arthur Rhodes.

Theo Epstein’s interest in the young catcher have been well documented. Ramirez was the player involved in the Mike Lowell deal that was and then wasn’t last offseason after Lowell failed the Rangers’ physical.

Ramirez, now 26 years old, was originally signed as an amateur free agent by the Atlanta Braves in 2002 and has also spent time in the Cleveland Indians organization.

In seven total minor league seasons, Ramirez has appeared in 563 games, making 1,989 at-bats while hitting .298/.396/.476/.872 with 72 HR and 358 RBI.

However, Ramirez has struggled mightily in his two brief Major League stints in 2008 and 2010. He’s just a .217/.343/.357/.699 hitter with four HR and 17 RBI in 115 MLB at bats.

Also, Ramirez didn’t have a great 2010 in the minors. He hit just .286/.373/.381/.754 with just three HR and 29 RBI in 189 at-bats while playing with the Texas Ranger Triple-A affiliate Oklahoma City Red Red Hawks.

Ramirez has typically been cast as a power hitting catcher with the ability to hit in the middle of a team’s lineup. However, his defense, arm strength and foot speed all leave much to be desired. 

Max was ranked as the No. 84 prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2009 season. However, he’s regressed in the eyes of many since that time after producing two lackluster seasons.

Ramirez now joins the throng of young catching prospects—including Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Ryan Lavarnway, Mark Wagner Luis Exposito and Tim Federowicz—who the Red Sox hope will produce an heir to Jason Varitek.

The group has a great deal of potential, but they lack the Jesus Montero-esque figure who is a lock to inherit the job in the future. The Sox seem to be taking the “law of averages approach,” in the sense that they’ve got to hit the talent jackpot on at least one catcher.

Just to be clear, there’s almost no chance Ramirez sees any time of significance in Boston this season. At this point, it’s hard to consider him little more than a “Theo Project.”

Dan is a Boston Red Sox featured columnist. For more news, stories, and opinion, follow him on Twitter at danhartelBR.

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Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe is reporting that the Boston Red Sox are close to finalizing a one year deal that would bring the left-handed reliever back to Boston for one more year.

The Sox had formerly non-tendered Okajima earlier in the offseason. He was due a pay raise on the $2.75 million he earned in 2010, a figure which the Red Sox didn’t think he was worth.

Despite underwhelming stuff, Okajima had been one of the more dominant set-up men in baseball from 2007-09, before completely falling off the radar last season.

In 56 appearances, Okie lasted just 46.0 innings, with a 4.50 ERA and atrocious 1.72 WHIP. Left-handed batters hit .284/.357/.375/.732 off him in 99 plate appearances.

After struggling for more than four months last season, Okajima went on the disabled list on August 6 with hamstring and calf problems.

He missed about three weeks of action, but upon return, was his old dominant self. For whatever reason, Okajima completely figured things out following his stint on the DL.

In fifteen appearances in September and October, Okajima had just a 1.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through 13.0 innings of work. Batters hit just .200/.265/.267/.532 off him in 50 total plate appearances and he walked just four batters.

His complete turn-around following his time off, led to some speculation of whether or not Okajima was hiding injuries all season long, which explained his ineffectiveness.

Whatever the case, Okajima’s finish to 2010 at least earned him an opportunity to compete for a job in 2011. He’ll join the ranks of left-handers competing for a spot on the Red Sox bullpen in 2011, specifically Andrew Miller, Rich Hill, Andrew Miller and Felix Doubront.

While Okajima isn’t guaranteed a spot on the 2011 roster by any means, if he pitches in Spring Training the way he did to finish 2010, he’ll open the day in the Boston Red Sox pen.

It seems at this point that the Red Sox are content to start camp with a group of low-level lefties who will compete for a job, instead of finding a top-tier lefty via free agency like Brian Fuentes. The Red Sox are generally unwilling to give long term deals to relievers, so the addition of a top left-hander through free agency was unlikely anyways.

For more stories and news on Boston Sports, follow Dan on twitter at danhartelBR

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As the Patriots and Celtics roll, the snow piles on and the Gonzalez/Crawford acquisitions finally begin to set in as reality, baseball seems a long way away.

But, in just 49 more days, pitchers and catchers report to spring training!

The Sox seemed to have slowed down their offseason moves. While they might be in the mix for some more relief help and/or another right-handed bat, the Sox should be pretty content in the fact that they’ve addressed their offseason needs while the New York Yankees have not.

This seems as good a time as any to publish a complete early season preview, projecting what the opening day roster would look like if the season started tomorrow.

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Bob Jenks has agreed to terms on a two year, $12 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports.

The move marks the first “big name reliever” to head Boston‘s way, after the bullpen was deemed one of the offseason’s top priorities by GM Theo Epstein.

The Sox are unwilling to go to a third year even for many of the league’s better relievers, and were thus spurned by LHP Scott Downs, RHP Matt Guerrier, and LHP Jesse Crain—who all signed three year deals and went to the Angels, Dodgers, and White Sox, respectively.

Jenks has been a closer for the entirety of his career, and has tallied 167 saves over the last five seasons. However, his ERA rose to a personal high 4.44 in 2010, well above his career mark of 3.40. Jenks was 27-31 in save chances last season.

Jenks will be 30 to start the 2011 season, and he should provide some much needed late inning help, taking some of the burden off of set-up man Daniel Bard.

Bard appeared in 73 games and 74.2 innings last year, both of which were tied for fourth in the AL among relievers. Bard seemed to run out of gas at the end of the season, posting a 2.70 ERA while batters hit .255 over 14 combined games in September and October.

I’m sure the Sox would love to cut the young flamethrower’s usage down significantly in 2011, and Jenks should allow them to do just that.

If the Red Sox even want to entertain the idea of trading Jonathan Papelbon, their bullpen will have to make a complete turnaround. It’s just impossible to justify trading him mid-season if their bullpen isn’t one of the best in the league.

Jenks joins LHP Lenny DiNardo as the only “new” face in the Boston bullpen this year. DiNardo, who just recently signed a minor league contract, is a former Red Sox reliever who appeared in 43 games from 2004-06.

Since then, he’s spent two seasons with the A’s (2007-08) and one with the Royals (2009), as he’s struggled to find any level of consistency in the Major Leagues. He also has a connection with former Oakland Athletics and current Red Sox pitching coach Curt Young.

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Carl Crawford has signed a seven-year, $142 million contract with the Boston Red Sox. He joins Adrian Gonzalez as the second huge catch the Red Sox have landed this offseason.

The Red Sox are clearly going for it all this year.

Whenever the hot stove heats up with a flurry of blockbuster deals occurring within such a short period of time, it’s only natural that a number of subsequent questions arise.

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The Boston Red Sox are reportedly involved in talks with free agent catcher Russell Martin, a former All-Star and Los Angeles Dodger.

The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays have also reportedly been in on Martin.

The specific parameters of the offer are not yet known, although it’s likely a multi-year (most likely two) offer would be required to reign in the former top prospect.

Martin provides a bit of an enigma for the Red Sox or any other team who chooses to pursue him. Defensively, he’s not a great option, and his offensive skills have eroded over each of the last four seasons. Injuries limited him to just 89 starts and 97 total appearances last year.

On the flip side, Martin is still just 27, and a clean bill of health could, along with a change of scenery, possibly mean an upward trend in production.

If the Red Sox were to acquire Martin, it would likely mean that catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia would open the season in the minor leagues. He still has minor league options left, while Martin does not.

This would give the Red Sox an extended evaluational period to judge what Saltalamacchia would need to improve on. Salty appeared in just 19 combined games at all levels within the Red Sox organization, after they acquired him from the Texas Rangers at the trading deadline.

Worst case scenario? Martin plays horrifically, gets released, and the Red Sox are left with the same catching situation they have now in a Varitek/Saltalamacchia platoon.

Only this time around, Saltalamacchia has gotten a no-pressure start in the minor leagues and would likely face little criticism from the media, as anything would be seen as an upgrade over Martin. Not exactly a selling point, but food for thought.

Martin likely won’t be very expensive, and judging by the Carl Crawford contract and eventual Gonzalez extension, they aren’t hurting for dough.

Martin has at least shown he can do it in the majors on a consistent, albeit disappointing, level.

The newly added offensive prowess doesn’t hurt either, as it basically allows the Red Sox to experiment with whoever they like and find who has the best chemistry with the staff. 

This writer doesn’t see much harm in it, especially considering the fluidity of the Red Sox’s current catching situation. 

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Adrian Gonzalez is officially a member of the Boston Red Sox. He was introduced during a brief, 30 minute press conference at Fenway Park this afternoon.

Now that the dust has cleared, Red Sox fans want to know how he’ll do in Boston.

Gonzalez is a career .284/.368/.507 hitter with 168 HR and 525 RBI. His career home/away splits, however, feature quite a drastic difference:

Home: 1504 AB, 396 H, 61 HR, 214 RBI, .263/.360/.440

Away:  1663 AB, 504 H, 107 HR, 311 RBI, .303/.376/.568

What accounts for this difference? Not skill level, but rather the home park he had to play in.

The San Diego Padres make their home at PETCO Park, which is considered one of the worst hitters parks in all of baseball. Its dimensions are as follows: 334 ft. down the left field line, 367 ft. to left, 402 ft. in the left field alley, 396 ft. to center, 402 ft. to the right field alley, 382 ft. to right, 322 ft. down the left field line.

Using pitching park factor (runs above 1.000 favor the hitter; below, the pitcher), PETCO was worth just 0.882 runs, the fifth-lowest total in baseball.

Three of the five NL West parks were ranked 22nd or worst in baseball: PETCO, AT&T Park (Giants), which has a PPF of 0.942, and Dodger Stadium, which has a PPF of 0.939.

Only two parks in the NL West were above one run, therefore favoring the hitter: Coors Field (Rockies) was first on the list with a PPF of 1.364, and Chase Field was ninth with a PPF of 1.049.

This marks a striking contrast from the American League East. Fenway Park itself has a PPF of 1.083, the seventh-highest average in baseball. Yankee Stadium was second in PFF at 1.177, Camden Yards (Orioles) was fifth with a 1.122 and the Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) was eighth with a 1.058.

Gonzalez has a significant chance to improve on his numbers simply because he’ll be playing a majority of his games in hitter-friendly ballparks.

Also, Gonzalez, a left-handed batter, happens to be one of the best opposite field hitters in the game. Gonzo is a career 195/463 in balls hit to the opposite field. This translates to a .421/.418/.842 batting line, with 46 HR and 117 RBI.

Fenway Park has one of the best left field porches for power hitters, and Gonzalez should be able to utilize all parts of the park to his benefit. 

The Boston Globe’s Eric Wilbur, using Adrian Gonzalez’ hit chart from last season, explained how Gonzalez would have hit an additional 11 home runs had he played the entire season at Fenway Park. This, combined with his road production, could have yielded a 50+ HR season, despite neck and shoulder injuries.

In 2009, Gonzalez hit 40 HR, and he remains a legitimate 40+ HR candidate in Boston. If all goes well, he could be in the hunt for an MVP too.

Welcome to Boston, Adrian.

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