Kuzul

I like to joke with my old college roommates that the St. Louis Cardinals have but four good players:

Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.

That number was quickly reduced to three with the preseason injury to Wainwright that required season-ending Tommy John surgery. Carpenter’s terrible start (one win and a 4.58 ERA as of May 27) all but takes that number down to two.

Throw in a contract year for Pujols and an appendectomy or two for Holliday, and we’re fast on our way to seeing that number reach zero!

The Cardinals are 31-21 right now, good for first in the National League Central. Can this be maintained? The answer is absolutely not, and I’ll give you four reasons why.

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We are T-minus six days from Opening Day of the 2011 MLB season. The first official pitch will be thrown by Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers in Yankee Stadium.

It’s a great time of the year.

I used to have to sleep with a baseball in my hand around this time of year when I played coach-pitch ball. Now, I just get the itch to scour online ticket vendors for cheap seats to great games.

I’m sure you have your own annual idiosyncrasies too, but one ritual that all red-blooded baseball fans have is The Prediction.

The Prediction is an immortal, intangible milestone in a sports fan’s life. Oftentimes, it’s passed down from generation to generation.

The ability to blow hot air about how great (awful) your team (the other team) will do is easy to acquire.

But predicting year after year that the Cubs will win it all or the Pirates will win at all takes more ardent determination. Indeed, only the truest of fans can routinely be wrong and come back again next year full of even more far-fetched prognostications.

My turn!

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays, 3rd place in the AL East.

Overview

Tampa will not be able to repeat as AL East Champions, which should come as no surprise to anyone who watched the Rays at all last year.

They knew that 2010 would be their last year to try to get back to the World Series with that group of players, but they ran into a hot Texas Rangers team with one of baseball’s finest playoff pitchers, Cliff Lee.

I have already pronounced James Shields the X-factor for the Rays in 2011. A strong year from him could very well lead to a strong regular season for Tampa Bay.

Where I’m Right

The Rays are an interesting blend of very, very young and very, very old.

On one hand, depending on Sean Rodriguez to take a big step forward so soon is difficult for me. On the other, Manny Ramirez is eventually going to see a batting average decline, and this year could be it.

Kyle Farnsworth is the most battle-tested arm in Tampa Bay’s bullpen, which is startling. Relying on the quick-tempered fireballer to set the tone in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings is a gamble.

The dice roll is magnified when you consider that his counterparts in New York and Boston, Rafael Soriano and Hideki Okajima, respectively, have excellent track records of strong relief performance.

How I Could Be Wrong

If James Shields is the X-factor of the team, BJ Upton is the W-factor.

…Now that you’ve had a second to roll your eyes a couple times at that weak attempt at humor, hear me out.

BJ Upton, like his younger brother, has all the talent in the world. He proved in 2007 that he’s capable of hitting for power and average, while in each of the three seasons since he’s stolen at least 40 bases.

The challenge for Upton will be to combine some of that power and average with his remarkable speed. A stat line of .270, 20 HRs and 30 SBs is completely within the realm of possibility.

Another way the Rays could prove me wrong is by catching fire with talented, enthusiastic youth the same way they did in 2008.

If Joe Maddon‘s club is in contention at the All-Star break, anything can happen.

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The most common phrase in professional sports (also the most overused phrase) that players and coaches use to describe a recent transaction is “it’s a business.” As a student of business, I can confidently confirm this brilliant diagnosis.

As a business, the Tampa Bay Rays must first outline their goal for the 2011 season. A successful season would entail making the playoffs, most likely as the American League wild card, and compete in the postseason. Check that off.

Next, they must begin basic preparation. This is primarily training employees and allowing managers to learn the strengths and weaknesses of their people, i.e. Spring Training. Check that off, too.

Finally, the club has to analyze its environment for the 2011 season. The most common tool to assess a given business at any time is with a Five Forces Analysis.

The Five Forces are: supplier power, buyer power, substitutes, rivalry, and competition, but for the sake of relevance, buyer power and substitutes have been omitted. Ticket sales and the NFL and NBA don’t seem to have much say in the success of the 2011 Rays.

If baseball teams truly are businesses, grading and understanding the Three Forces will lead to accomplishing the 2011 Rays’ playoff goal.

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History tells us that there is virtually no correlation between winning the World Series and making the playoffs the following season. Over the past decade, a mere 60 percent of defending champs were able to make it back to the playoffs as a pennant winner or even as a wild card.

As if general statistics provided by my brilliant research skills aren’t persuasive enough, I have organized the reasons the San Francisco Giants will fail to make the playoffs into two separate explanations. Each one is cause for major concern alone, but as together, they cause fear in the hearts of the even the most dedicated Ragers.

Note: I apologize for the Type A humanoids out there reading this, wanting desperately for there to be three or five reasons or some other number that feels better. I tried to come up with more, but the futility that will be the 2011 San Francisco Giants needs but only two overriding reasons.

1. Over dependence on players with a ton of questions marks

Giants skipper Bruce Bochy was able to get absolutely everything out of his players last year. Waiver wire pickups like Pat Burrell and Cody Ross became integral parts of the playoff push. You can’t really rely on that again this year. For example, at age 34, can Aubrey Huff once again be the anchor and contribute 20 homers, 80 RBIs and a .285 average? I think not.

Buster Posey is coming off a Rookie of the Year win, which could mean nothing, sure, or could spell trouble ala the Madden Cover Curse. Which sophomore season will this ROY have: the Cal Ripken, Jr. one or the Eric Hinske one?

As for Pablo Sandoval, whose resurgence is being predicted by everyone, I will believe it when I see it. One good year and one bad year tells me that not even the Kung Fu Panda knows what to expect. On a side note, I hear that he has shed a few of the pounds that garnered his lovable nickname, so move that we re-nickname him the Kung Fu Koala. Tell your friends.

2. A significantly stronger NL West

Last year, the Giants’ biggest threat to winning the division title was the San Diego Padres. This year, you can expect to see the Colorado Rockies make a quantum leap upward from last year’s record. With a healthy Troy Tulowitzki, a bona fide outfielder in Carlos Gonzalez and a toughened ace in Ubaldo Jimenez, the Rockies have an excellent foundation on which to build many years of division title contending teams.

It seems like every year, we wait on the Los Angeles Dodgers to arrive. Wait no longer. Their core has been too young to rely on in the past, but Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are ready to assume their stud status. Everyone talks about the vaunted rotation in Philadelphia, but you’ll be hard pressed to find a weak pitcher wearing Dodgers blue.

But take it easy, Giants fans. There’s always the year after next year. 

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