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John Lackey: Latest News, Rumors, Speculation Surrounding Free-Agent P

John Lackey filled in fluidly for the St. Louis Cardinals when ace Adam Wainwright suffered an Achilles injury in early April.

Lackey is now a free agent after declining a $15.8 qualifying offer, and already teams are in pursuit of the 13-year veteran.

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Six teams have shown interest in Lackey

Thursday, Nov. 19

Lackey’s market currently includes the three teams he’s played for previously: the incumbent Cardinals, the Boston Red Sox—the team who traded him to St. Louis—and the Los Angeles Angels, with whom he spent the first eight years of his career.   

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs have also reached out to Lackey’s camp. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported all six clubs that had “checked in” on Lackey.

Lackey has primarily positioned himself by maximizing his value, and declining the handsome qualifying offer came as no surprise. He’s clearly interested in playing toward his 40th birthday and could receive a deal fitting those aspirations.

After being dealt from Boston to St. Louis at the 2014 trade deadline, Lackey appeared on a wayward decline from his early career heroics. He finished with a 4.15 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 12 starts with the Cardinals, including two in their run at the National League pennant.

But his turnaround in 2015 was remarkable. Lackey eclipsed 200 innings for the first time since 2010, going 13-10 with a 2.77 ERA, a 1.211 WHIP and 175 strikeouts, his most since his only All-Star season in 2007.

This all from a man who turned 37 in October.

All six of his suitors are in the market for starting pitching this offseason. The Red Sox have been aggressive in free agency under new president Dave Dombrowski, who seems prepared to quench the drama of Boston’s epic collapse in 2011, which Lackey was a part of.    

With a suitable overhaul this offseason, the Red Sox could contend for the American League East; the same goes for the Angels in the AL West. The Cardinals’ outstanding rotation could probably make do without Lackey given that he’ll seek years and dollars they may not be prepared to dish out.

The Cubs and Dodgers make most sense. Given his age, Lackey probably has a premium on chasing a ring in his career twilight, and both teams have realistic World Series aspirations in 2016. And though both are believed to be in the market for blue-chip free agents like David Price, Lackey boasts leadership and a postseason pedigree each could benefit from.

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Jeremy Hellickson to Phillies: Latest Trade Details, Comments and Reaction

The Philadelphia Phillies have acquired right-handed starter Jeremy Hellickson from the Arizona Diamondbacks for right-handed prospect Sam McWilliams, according to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports.

The Phillies finished with MLB’s worst record in large part due to pitching. Their starters posted a combined 5.23 ERA and allowed batters a .290 average in 2015—both second-worst in the majors. 

They’re in the midst of a massive overhaul with starters. They traded ace Cole Hamels to the Texas Rangers before the non-waiver deadline and declined the 2016 option on Cliff Lee at season’s end. 

Hellickson, however, isn’t exactly a highly sought-after commodity like he was earlier in his career when he was the Rookie of the Year. 

He was baggage to the Diamondbacks, who traded for him last winter, and the six-year veteran mustered just nine wins in 27 starts with a 4.62 ERA and 1.329 WHIP. 

Hellickson is in the final year of arbitration eligibility after collecting $4.275 million in 2014, per Spotrac

The Phillies compete in a National League East that features two of the baseball’s best rotations—the New York Mets and Washington Nationals—meaning they’ll need a lot more than damaged goods from the sub-.500 Diamondbacks if they seek a path out of the league cellar.

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Wei-Yin Chen: Latest News, Rumors, Speculation Surrounding Free-Agent SP

Wei-Yin Chen isn’t one of the blue-chip free-agent starters on the market, but the left-handed veteran is drawing early interest.

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Yankees to Make Run at Chen

Thursday, Nov. 12

The New York Yankees are in the market for starting pitching to fortify what was an improved, but nonetheless average, rotation in 2015.

They plan to make a strong run at Chen to fill those needs, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.

“A lot of teams are going to be in on him,” a source said, per Feinsand. “But the Yankees are going to be one of them.”

The Yankees could use a southpaw, as CC Sabathia has been their rotation’s lone lefty since Andy Pettite retired following the 2013 season.

Chen compiled a respectable 3.72 ERA with a 46-32 record and 1.252 WHIP over 707 innings in four seasons with the Baltimore Orioles. He was instrumental in the Orioles’ American League East title in 2014.

However, he is upset over a demotion to Triple-A earlier this season, according to Rich Dubroff of CSN Mid-Atlantic:

Feinsand reported that Chen, who is represented by super-agent Scott Boras, is seeking a four- to five-year deal, which is within reason, given his age of 30. However, Aaron Gleeman of NBC Sports noted Max Scherzer and Jon Lesterlast season’s blue-chip free-agent starterswere the only pitchers to receive deals for longer than four years in the offseason last year.

The Yankees have been linked to high-profile names including Zack Greinke, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, but Greinke and others such as David Price and Johnny Cueto—who both expect to command at least $150 millionmay be out of New York’s price range.

The Bronx Bombers quenched a two-year playoff drought this year but hope to contend for the division title next season and avoid playing in the AL Wild Card Game after falling to the Houston Astros in the one-game shootout at home.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Latest Buzz on Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel and More

The MLB general managers meetings were assured to spill plenty of buzz on what’s developing as one of the most exciting offseasons in recent memory. 

Much of the hot stove has centered on the 139 players that initially filed for free agency and became eligible to sign with new teams last Saturday. But trade talks have also surfaced as personnel planners convene in Boca Raton, Florida. 

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that, while thin among a free-agent field, there’s an exceptional trade market for some of the game’s top closers, such as the Cincinnati Reds’ Aroldis Chapman, the San Diego Padres’ Craig Kimbrel and, most recently, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Mark Melancon.

“Everyone’s closer is available,” one GM told Heyman. “People, especially the young GMs, have no fear of trading their closer.”

With bullpens stealing the hot stove early this week, here’s what’s buzzing on a few of the game’s top closers.

 

Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres were easily last offseason’s most ambitious team with a slew of personnel changes by first-year GM A.J. Preller, capped with a trade for lights-out closer Craig Kimbrel the night before Opening Day. 

Kimbrel had a strong 2015 but not to par with his tenure with the Atlanta Braves, in which he led the majors in saves for four straight years. Kimbrel finished with a career-low 39 saves last year, and the Padres never manifested their hopeful run in the competitive NL West. 

Kimbrel still remains one of the game’s top closers and could be a valuable asset to a contending team—which he hasn’t been a part of the last two seasons. The Braves’ ongoing offensive struggles limited his save opportunities and made him trade bait in what wound up his final season in Atlanta.

Heyman reported there are “seven or eight” teams interested in Kimbrel, including the Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Washington Nationals. 

The Yankees pursued Kimbrel at the trade deadline, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, and Heyman reported they are willing to deal their standout closer, Andrew Miller. Kimbrel would bring velocity Miller can’t match, but the Yankees have Miller locked up through 2018, per Spotrac, and would be wise only to pursue Kimbrel if Miller is dealt.

Tigers GM Al Avila says he’s also in the market for a closer, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, and they make the most sense among interested parties. 

Detroit missed the postseason for the first time in five years, and its last October exit rested strictly on the bullpen. The Tigers used a hybrid trio of closers once trading Joakim Soria and have the financial flexibility to assume Kimbrel’s three remaining years at $37.5 million, per Spotrac

 

Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are reportedly shopping triple-digits closer Aroldis Chapman, according to Robert Murray of Baseball Essential.

Chapman is entering his final year of arbitration and will become an unrestricted free agent next offseason, according to Rotoworld. The Reds had the second-worst record in baseball and presented Chapman just 36 save opportunities this year, with which he converted 33.

He simply doesn’t make sense to remain in Cincinnati, though the Reds know Chapman’s high value and will charge potential suitors at a premium, per Heyman. They were reportedly seeking three to four top prospects at last year’s trade deadline, per Murray

Chapman’s interested parties were largely aligned with Kimbrel’s at last year’s deadline, per Heyman, though one team in particular has long stood out, per James Wagner of the Washington Post:

Chapman would make sense in Washington but at the right price. The Nationals have a consistently improving farm system, most recently ranked No. 9 by Baseball Americathat could help the Reds in their rebuild. 

The Reds are smart to begin the bidding now before Chapman hits free agency in a similar shopping last year of Johnny Cueto, who they eventually dealt to the Kansas City Royals for three pitching prospects. Cueto is now a free agent expected to command a nine-figure deal, and the Reds have bolstered their middle-of-the-pack farm system.

They’d be wise to take a similar course again.

 

Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates

Chapman and Kimbrel have long been linked to trade talks, but Melancon, the majors’ top closer with 51 saves last year, has made a surprising emergence. 

Heyman reported two rival GMs indicated the Trevor Hoffman Award winner is “out there for the taking” but didn’t specify any potential suitors.

As the Reds are with Chapman, the Pirates only have one year of club control left over Melancon, 30, though they have much more use for an esteemed closer having won a second-best 98 games last year. 

But, as Tom Singer of MLB.com noted, the nature of the position lends itself to fickle stability in the long run:

The Pirates have played in the NL Wild Card Game each of the last three seasons, losing the past two, giving all the more push to win the NL Central and avoid the one-game shootout. But they’ll have to top the Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals, both of whom are expected to be as good, if not better, next season. 

While it may make long-term sense to capitalize on return value for the worthy closer, if the Pirates are truly committed to winning the pennant, the past three years have proven they’ll need to have every piece in place. 

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Jonathan Papelbon Trade Rumors: Latest News, Speculation on Nationals P’s Future

Clubhouse headache and high-price reliever Jonathan Papelbon has surfaced as a potential trade chip of the Washington Nationals. 

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Nationals GM Fielding Calls on Papelbon

Monday, Nov. 10

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported Tuesday teams have reached out to Nationals GM Mike Rizzo to discuss Papelbon and fellow reliever Drew Storen.

Papelbon supplanted Storen as the team’s closer when traded from the Philadelphia Phillies prior to the non-waiver deadline. It created an awkward dynamic, even prompting Storen to comment on the matter and admit to having discussions with his agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, about his future in Washington, per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.

Papelbon was also infamously involved in choking NL MVP favorite Bryce Harper in the dugout late in the season, when the Nationals were out of the playoff race, courtesy of MLB (starts at 18-second mark):

Bill Ladson of MLB.com considered Papelbon “all but gone” following the incident, though the Nationals said Papelbon was in their 2016 plans when he and Harper reconciled the first week of November, per the Washington Post‘s Thomas Boswell.

Now with Rizzo mingling with GMs at the annual retreat among personnel planners, he wasn’t firm on whether Papelbon would return.

“As of today, they’re both in the bullpen [in 2016],” Rizzo said of Papelbon and Storen, per the Washington Post‘s James Wagner. “They’re both good relief pitchers. Unless someone makes us a real baseball offer, they will be.”

Both Papelbon and Storen will be free agents in 2017, and it wouldn’t be out of the realm for both to be gone by then. Papelbon will likely be harder to deal this offseason given his reputation and price tag of $11 million, per Spotrac

Rizzo and the Nationals have already made moves this offseason to return to World Series contention after missing the playoffs despite mighty expectations in 2015. 

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Matt Williams to Serve as Diamondbacks 3rd-Base Coach: Latest Details, Reaction

Former Washington Nationals manager Matt Williams has accepted his former job as the third-base coach with the Arizona Diamondbacks, according to John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports

The D-backs haven’t formally made the announcement of Williams’ hiring, but Steve Gilbert of MLB.com speculated that could come as early as Wednesday:

Williams was the D-backs’ third-base coach from 2010-2013 before taking the Washington Nationals’ managerial job. In Washington, he was the NL Manager of the Year in 2014, but the team fell well short of expectations as unanimous World Series favorites last year, per Odds Shark, which led to his firing on Oct. 5.

The Nationals replaced Williams with Dusty Baker last week, and the team’s NL MVP favorite, Bryce Harper, wasn’t shy in expressing his excitement over the change with a slight jab at Williams’ expense while speaking on MLB Network (h/t Chris Johnson of MASN):    

I think you see that smile on my face. I’m definitely very excited to have him. Being able to play for a guy like Dusty, somebody that’s been there, been around the game for a long, long time.

[…]

I’m very excited to have the team that we do. We finally have an All-Star staff and it’s gonna be a lot of fun.

Williams played 17 seasons in the majors, including his final six with the D-backs in which he was a member of their 2001 World Series team.

The D-backs finished and improved 79-83 in 2015 but still well out of contention in the competitive NL West. They’ve quietly been building to what could be a promising 2016 with young pitching and offense centered around MVP-caliber first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. 

The reunion with Williams may give the D-backs an additional push they need in the clubhouse to make a hopeful run next year. 

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MLB Free Agents 2016: Latest Rumors, Predictions on David Price, Jason Heyward

The MLB general managers meetings convene this weekend, and an already hot stove will get even hotter as personnel planners meet on the shores of Boca Raton, Florida. 

The yearly gathering is where GMs discuss the state of the game, rules, labor and other topics. But it’s also the early propellant for free-agent and trade talks as the offseason kicks into full swing.

Free agency began Saturday when players became eligible to sign with new clubs, and qualifying offers are out and must be decided on by Friday. 

There is plenty of buzz on how the landscape will shuffle in the coming months. As one agent noted to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports: “This the deepest (free-agent) market in memory, especially in terms of pitching and power.”

With the GM meetings set to begin Tuesday, here’s a look at the latest buzz surrounding a few faces on the fresh market.

 

Cubs are favorites to land David Price

The Chicago Cubs boasted baseball’s third-best record and were four wins from their first World Series appearance since 1945 in a season their highly touted prospects finally reached the majors. 

They’re young, talented and hungry—possibly with an appetite of $200 million. 

ESPN Insider Buster Olney reported rival evaluators indicated “the Cubs to be heavy, heavy favorites” to sign David Price, arguably this offseason’s most coveted free agent.

It’s no secret the Cubs are in the market for starting pitching this offseason, even with Jake Arrieta’s Cy Young-caliber year and last offseason’s signing of Jon Lester to a six-year, $155 million contract. 

A lack of offense was the primary cause they were swept in the National League Championship Series by the New York Mets. But their rotation was also exposed as very top-heavy.

Price has said his premium is winning, but he’s also expected to command more than $200 million. There are only a handful of teams that can offer both—and one stands out as the most logical.

By signing with Chicago, Price would also reunite with manager Joe Maddon, whom he spent his first six-plus seasons of his career with as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Price also hinted his interest during the 2014 All-Star break, per Barry Bloom of MLB.com (via RaysBaseball.com), when the Cubs were in last place:

Winning is absolutely something you want to do. Being a part of something special is also something you want to do. You can take that to a first-place team, or you can take that to a last-place team like the Cubs. With the talent they have coming up, they could be a very special team in a few years as well. That would probably be the coolest city to win a championship in right now.

He even poked fun at the idea with Arrieta on Twitter earlier this summer:

The Cubs are already the favorites to win the 2016 World Series, per Odds Shark, but adding Price will further skyrocket their potential. And he probably knows that.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

 

Heyward could haul nearly $200 million 

Jason Heyward is considered the No. 2 position player on the market, per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passangiven his age, remarkable defense and flashes of power. 

He’s expected to command nearly $200 million over a lengthy tenure, per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, leaving few options for affordable suitors.

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors gave an analysis on the left-handed outfielder, with a few speculated landing spots:

He doesn’t have the typical power output of a $200MM player, but his all-around game makes him a sabermetric darling with six wins above replacement this year.  A very long term and an opt-out clause are on the table for Heyward because he broke into the Majors at age 20, and is now just 26.  

The Cardinals will try to convince Heyward to stay, but teams like the Angels, Yankees, White Sox, and Astros could make a play.

Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago indicated the Cubs are also a player. Their 2015 center fielder, Dexter Fowler, is expected to reject the qualifying offer the Cubs made, according to Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune, and hit the free-agent market. Should Fowler leave, there’d be a big void Heyward could fill—particularly given hybrid Kyle Schwarber, who was brought up playing catcher, continues to play in left field due to team needs. 

The Atlanta Braves traded Heyward away last offseason for Shelby Miller knowing the outfielder would have a price tag outside their reach. In the process, they picked up an above-par starter they’d have control over through 2018, per Spotrac. In the midst of a massive rebuild, a reunion seem highly unlikely. 

The St. Louis Cardinals are probably in a similar boat, with the eighth-highest payroll ($102.9 million) for 2016, per Spotrac, a number that will only increase by spring training. 

The New York Yankees or Los Angeles Angels make the most sense in terms of financial flexibility and specific needs. Brendan Kuty of NJ.com speculated New York might stand pat with its current offense, though as a team known to be aggressive—and one that lost its grip of the AL East in the final third of the season—the Yanks seem like they could break out big to win now.

A fair argument could be made Heyward hasn’t lived up to the hype since breaking into the league in 201—he’s a career .263 hitter and has belted more than 20 home runs in a season only once. But he entered the league with massive expectations as Baseball America‘s No. 1 prospect ahead of Stephen Strasburg, Giancarlo Stanton, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner, among others. 

His caveat is his age. Even if he’s signed to a seven- to nine-year deal, Heyward would still be in his mid-30s. There’s plenty of prime left for him to elevate into the player most believed he’d be.

Prediction: New York Yankees

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Prince Fielder Wins AL Comeback Player at 2015 Players Choice Awards

The MLB Players Association announced Texas Rangers designated hitter Prince Fielder was named the 2015 American League Comeback Player at the Players Choice Awards Monday.

Fielder led the Rangers to their first American League West title since 2011, batting .305 with 23 home runs and 98 RBI in 158 games one year after a herniated disc cut his first season in Texas short at 42 games. 

MLB tweeted its congratulations shortly after the announcement:

The MLB Players Association has annually handed out Outstanding Player, Outstanding Rookie, Outstanding Pitcher and Comeback Player awards in each league since 1992, according to the MLBPA.

Players Choice Awards winners are eligible to collectively donate $260,000 to charities of each award winner’s choice through the MLB Players Trust, per the MLBPA.

Fielder had missed just one game in the five previous years during stints with the Milwaukee Brewers and Detroit Tigers, who traded him prior to the 2014 season.

Monday’s award was Fielder’s third in the category. He was named the Comeback Player of the Year by MLB, determined by its 30 MLB.com club beat writers, and by his peers through the Sporting News rendition of the award, receiving 112 of the 156 votes submitted by select AL players. 

First-year Rangers manager Jeff Banister, hired in October 2014, was along for Fielder’s rehab and spoke of the designated hitter’s determination, per Justin McGuire of Sporting News:

Really, to be able to get himself to where he is today, it cost him a lot, if you think about it. The hard work, the time, effort, passion for the game.

Even through rehab and extensive rehab, there’s uncertainty. Even when you start back up there’s still the uncertainty. There’s a lot of want-to, but you’ve got to learn how to again. 

The Rangers were a win away from eliminating the World Series favorite Blue Jays in the American League Division Series, but no one expected them to even make it that far. They entered the season with the seventh-worst odds to win the title, per Odds Shark, and winning the AL West over the Houston Astros in the final month showed an overall team resolve aligned with Fielder.  

The Rangers enter 2016 far ahead of schedule and should contend for another division title—especially if they can get another sound season from Fielder.  

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Matt Harvey Wins NL Comeback Player at 2015 Players Choice Awards

The Major League Baseball Players Association announced New York Mets star pitcher Matt Harvey was named the 2015 National League Comeback Player by his peers Monday.

Harvey bounced back from missing all of 2014 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and pitched a career-high 216 innings, including the postseason, while leading his team to the World Series.

The 26-year-old beat out other finalists in Cincinnati Reds All-Star first baseman Joey Votto and Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Players Choice Awards winners are eligible to collectively donate $260,000 to charities of each award winner’s choice through the MLB Players Trust, per the MLBPA.

Harvey compiled a 2.71 ERA in 29 regular-season starts, going 13-8 with a 1.02 WHIP and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. With Harvey at the helm, the Mets won the NL East over the unanimous preseason World Series favorite Washington Nationals. 

Away from on-field performance, Harvey also came back from a rift between he, agent Scott Boras and Mets brass over his innings count late in the season. 

Boras’ concern stemmed from the 180-inning cap set by Harvey’s surgeon, though the Mets weren’t abiding by a specific number and split starts to avoid overuse. The situation snowballed when Harvey wouldn’t take a stance on the issue as the regular season wound down and the playoffs were within reach. 

The media didn’t take kindly to his approach, per Rich MacLeod of MLB.com:

Harvey eventually reconciled and went on to pitch four playoff games, including two in the World Series, with a cumulative 3.04 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

Though the Mets must address possible departures of key offensive contributors, they should remain NL pennant contenders for the foreseeable future with their trio of high-velocity starters, with Harvey at the helm.

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MLB MVP 2015: Predictions on AL, NL Candidates

The MLB MVP races don’t have the luster of recent memory, given only a handful of candidates were a part of a pennant race despite their teams being rich with high expectations fueled by remarkable talent.

It’s far less enticing than the Cy Young Award conversation where in the National League, there are three worthy winners and in the American League, there is a pair of southpaws that led their teams to snap lengthy playoff droughts. 

Perhaps a slight stride in the 2015 MVP hunt is that there appears to be more variety among vying candidates. Last year, Mike Trout ran away as the unanimous AL winner and Clayton Kershaw got the NL nod with a dominating 21-3 record while claiming his fourth-straight ERA title.

The MVP awards—along with the Cy Young, Rookie and Manager of the Year honors—are administered by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. 

The BBWAA selects two members recommended by the local chapter chairman from each MLB city for each award, tallying 30 total votes. There is no crossover—meaning AL writers vote only for that league award, and same for the NL—and in smaller markets, some members may vote for multiple awards, per the BBWAA.

With the MVP announcement slated for Nov. 19, here is a look at the candidates and predictions.

 

American League

Trout turned in another phenomenal year, but the reigning MVP may be hindered by his team’s overall struggles and a breakout season from Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson.

Donaldson scored 13.6 percent of Toronto’s MLB-best 891 runs this season, led the AL with 123 RBI and 352 total bases, and tied with Trout for third with 41 homers. He was undoubtedly the best bat in a Blue Jays lineup filled with power and consistency.

Donaldson was an exceptional hitter and defender in four seasons with the Oakland A’s—he was an All-Star in 2014—before being traded last offseason. But his ascension to MVP favorite came at a rapid rate and as somewhat of a surprise given the A’s were willing to let him go in part of an overall rebuild. 

The third baseman could become the first player to win MVP following an offseason trade since the Detroit Tigers’ Willie Hernandez in 1984, according to JP Morosi of FOX Sports.

Donaldson’s peers voted him the overwhelming winner in the Sporting News MLB Player of the Year honors, determined from 387 player votes—of which 150 were for Donaldson. Trout finished sixth with 12 votes.

His Los Angeles Angels were 14-1 odds to win the World Series this spring, per Odds Shark, sixth among the majors after winning 98 games the year prior. They would’ve assuredly been worse without the versatile outfielder, as only two teammates had a FanGraphs WAR of 2.0, the mark of an average position player. Trout’s 9.0 topped the AL with Donaldson second at 8.7.

Handcuffing the five-tool Trout for his team’s struggles might not be fair—and it defies BBWAA protocol—but that’s not why Trout shouldn’t win. It’s because Donaldson was simply the better player, who also happened to play on a better team.

Donaldson winning MVP would leave Trout the runner-up for the third time in his fourth full MLB season, but he’s only 24, is the face of baseball and will assuredly contend for the honor in many years to come.

Prediction: Josh Donaldson

 

National League

 

The NL MVP race isn’t nearly as close or varied, with the Washington Nationals’ Bryce Harper the clear favorite despite his team failing to reach the postseason as unanimous preseason World Series favorites, per Odds Shark.

Harper blasted a league-high 42 homers and was the batting title bridesmaid with a .330 average. The former first overall draft pick finally lived up to his prodigy pedigree after three seasons of above-average, but not necessarily remarkable, performances forecasted when he entered the league, as Eddie Matz of  indicated:

Harper hasn’t had a bad season since he came to the majors, but this is the first year many feel he has really lived up to his superstar potential. Part of that is patience, he says, sure. But a bigger part is that, for the first time, he has been able to play an entire season.

Harper fulfilled his preseason goal of playing at least 150 games—he reached a career-high 153—in large part to baserunning and defensive discipline. And his presence benefited the Nationals greatly, as he led the majors with a 9.5 WAR, per FanGraphs.

His competition for the award doesn’t seem as stiff as others’ in years past, either. 

There is a trio of starting pitchers—Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke and Kershaw—each worthy of the Cy Young Award, but they probably won’t challenge Harper given the writers awarded Kershaw in a once-in-a-generation selection a year ago when he became the first NL MVP pitcher since Bob Gibson in 1968.

Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo and Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado each had exceptional seasons, but none quite reached Harper’s echelon. Rizzo was the only one among that trio to reach the postseason.

Should writers select Harper, he would be the first NL MVP on a non-playoff team since Albert Pujols won in 2008 with the St. Louis Cardinals. In total, six have won the award since MLB expanded its playoffs in 1994 to incorporate the League Division Series, according to Dayn Perry of CBS Sports. 

And per BBWAA protocol, the performances of Harper’s teammates shouldn’t be a factor in determining the award. 

Prediction: Bryce Harper

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