The World Series may be in the books, but the MLB offseason should be as lively and dramatic in the four short months before pitchers and catchers report for spring training.
There are plenty of marquee free agents hitting the market—139 total, according to the MLBPA, up 18 from 2014—with plenty of shuffling afoot among the baseball landscape.
Will the four blue-chip starting pitchers get the nine-figure deals they’ll seek? How much turnover will the champion Kansas City Royals endure? Which team will be last year’s San Diego Padres in making the most surprise splashes?
Winter is coming, but the baseball offseason is heating up, and here is the latest buzz to prepare.
Marlins Won’t Pursue Top Aces Greinke, Price
The Miami Marlins will not contend to claim top starting pitchers such as Zack Greinke and David Price, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.
Both are expected to command deals exceeding $200 million, which doesn’t necessarily fit into the Marlins payroll, currently at $31,450,000, per Spotrac. Though that figure will assuredly increase before Opening Day, the Marlins splashed last November when inking superstar Giancarlo Stanton to a backloaded, 13-year deal for $325 million.
The report that Greinke and Price won’t be in the Marlins mold surfaced the same day that Miami ace José Fernandez turned down an undisclosed multiyear deal months before returning from Tommy John surgery in July, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
Jackson reported team president David Samson said negotiations dwindled over money, not years:
He was offered what we thought was a very fair, tremendous amount of money. I don’t believe he had any interest in having another offer [this winter], but we always will talk. He is ours for three years at a minimum. Building around Jose and [Giancarlo] Stanton is two smart things to do, but it takes two people to sign a contract.
As Samson noted, Fernandez, 23, cannot hit free agency until after the 2018 season, though he is arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, per Rotoworld. When healthy, he’s one of the best in the game—22-9 with a 2.40 ERA, 1.014 WHIP and 10.5 K/9.
Under new manager Don Mattingly, the Marlins should see increased success but could be handicapped by starting pitching—particularly in the ace-full National League East facing remarkable rotations within the New York Mets and Washington Nationals.
That’s not exactly what vocal owner Jeffrey Loria hopes to hear as his team seeks its first winning season since 2009. As Mark Bowman of MLB.com showed, Miami hasn’t been a home for stability:
The Marlins not pursuing Price or Greinke doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t chase a second-tier free-agent starter such as Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir or Doug Fister. That trio each hopes to cash a nine-figure deal, though ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian indicated the three “are going to get paid, but maybe not as much as they’d like.”
The Marlins could also be preparing for the hefty bill in the coming years for Fernandez, a client of Scott Boras, who notoriously hauls in heaps of cash for his clients and rarely ever agrees to terms before they hit free agency.
The heart of the Royals clubhouse could be on his way out of Kansas City, as Alex Gordon is expected to decline his $14 million option and hit what should be a hungry market for the outfielder.
Gordon is coming off a four-year, $37 million contract, per Spotrac, and CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported he will likely get a similar offer in years but with a large uptick in dollars.
Gordon, who turns 32 in February, has a respectable career slash line of .269/.348/.435 and has averaged 17.1 home runs, 68.7 RBI and 77.5 runs in the seven seasons over his nine-year career he’s played at least 100 games.
But his pedigree is rooted in defense. Gordon posted an eye-popping .995 fielding percentage with just five errors over the life of his last contract, according to baseball-reference.com, which was such a focal factor in the Royals’ success.
Heyman reported the Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros as possible landing spots should the Royals not be able to re-sign him.
Christopher Smith of MassLive.com also speculated the Red Sox could utilize Gordon under new president Dave Dombrowski, who admitted to seeking a fourth outfielder though outright committing to Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo to go along with sure starter Mookie Betts. The Red Sox are coming off a last-place finish and will be active to rebound this offseason, and Gordon could certainly help.
But Gordon has said he wants to be back in Kansas City, where he’s spent his entire career, per the Associated Press (h/t KCTV5 Kansas City):
“I want to be back, trust me,” Gordon said. “This is my home. I love Kansas City. I love the fans. I love everything about Kansas City. I couldn’t see myself anywhere else. So, I hope it works out.”
While his opting out may say otherwise, Heyman added perspective that could give KC fans optimism:
However, the Royals are hoping to keep him, quite likely with an offer of about four years. Since he accepted a team-friendly four-year deal last time, there is reason to hope. And while he got only four while in his 20s, he can probably find five if he’s open to leaving.
Gordon faces a tough decision, as Kansas City is where he hopes to be, and the Royals will be contenders again next year. But if he sacrifices, he’ll have a thicker wallet to lean on.
Shark to Big Apple?
Jeff Samardzija is expected to receive a one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer from the Chicago White Sox, according to Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com, but he’s likely to reject that and hit the market.
The 30-year-old right-hander has maintained his desire to hit free agency since being traded from the Chicago Cubs to the Oakland Athletics in the middle of last season.
However, Samardzija won’t be nearly as coveted as he was then, coming off an awful 2015 in which he went 11-13 with a career-high 4.96 ERA, career-low 6.9 K/9 and MLB-worst 228 hits allowed.
Once thought a nine-figure pitcher, that seems a stretch. He certainly won’t get that from the White Sox, who have a stable of southpaws in Chris Sale, Carlos Rodon and Jose Quintana to build around.
Hayes noted as many as eight teams could be in the mix: the Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros and Texas Rangers.
Heyman noted an alliance with the Yankees could manifest based on old roots:
Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry, a Yankees executive, is a big voice in the organization now, leading to even more speculation Samardzija will be on the agenda. Hendry was the one who plucked Samardzija out of Notre Dame, and gave him a $10 million signing bonus for the Cubs (a wise call in hindsight).
ESPN’s Buster Olney, however, doesn’t necessarily agree:
The Yankees will likely be in the market for starters in free agency to surround Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and C.C. Sabathia but may not necessarily chase the big-ticket item.
Samardzija is coming off a career-worst season, but perhaps playing in a contending clubhouse for once—a half-season with Oakland notwithstanding—could be just the change he needs to return to dominant form.
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