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The Fall Classic pits the Kansas City Royals, last year’s bridesmaids and the epitome of a fundamentally sound team, against the budding New York Mets, who are making their first of what could be many appearances on this stage behind a youthful rotation exhibiting veteran poise.

One team was supposed to be here, taking care of unfinished business after falling short last year. The other came out of left field, an afterthought in a division all but conceded to the preseason World Series favorite Washington Nationals, according to Odds Shark.

The Royals have been on cruise control since Opening Day, holding first place for 143 days en route to winning the American League Central title by 12 games. The Mets simply hoped to reach .500 this year, as Athlon Sports noted, after enduring six straight losing seasons, which was tied for the longest active streak.

Neither team was favored to win its previous playoff series, yet both overcame the odds with relentless offense and superb pitching that now yields a mouth-watering Fall Classic matchup.

This matchup is not only the first between two expansion teams, but it also has an ambiance of unfamiliarity, as they didn’t play in the regular season and haven’t since 2013. Prior to the 1997 season, when interleague play was introduced, that was always the case excluding spring training.

Both teams have been completely revamped since their last meeting, long before the Mets’ trio of high-velocity starters made their MLB debuts. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard marched the Mets to a 6-1 record in their postseason starts, posting a combined 2.39 ERA and 63 strikeouts over 45.2 innings. 

The Mets will certainly be the toughest rotation the Royals have faced in this year’s playoffs, but to counter, they match up better than any lineup the Mets have seen.

New York relied on velocity to exploit the overpowering Chicago Cubs, who couldn’t answer, and as such, they never led once during their four-game exit. The Royals don’t have a juggernaut offense like the Cubs or Toronto Blue Jays, the ALCS runners-up, but they’re as efficient as any team in MLB. 

Their lineup doesn’t get overly aggressive swinging and makes contact, one through nine. According to Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated, the Royals put the ball in play an MLB-high 74 percent of the time and struck out an MLB-low 15.9 percent of the time.

Mets third baseman David Wright is well aware of the Royals’ consistency, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com:

Adding to their efficiency, the Royals seem to have found a stroke of power. They’ve smacked 15 home runs in 11 playoff games and hit seven to the Blue Jays’ six in the ALCS. Kansas City manager Ned Yost provided some perspective on the recent uptick, per Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com:

We’re not a team that relies on the home run. It’s not something we try to do. We have a lot of other ways we can score runs. And hitting in our ballpark, it doesn’t make sense to try and hit homers. 

But you look at our lineup, and we’ve got guys who certainly are capable. We go on the road and we can match up to other teams’ power. Just about everyone in our lineup has power.

The Royals also have a pitching staff that actually exceeded the Mets in velocity during the ALCS, according to Buster Olney of ESPN The Magazine, though their starters weren’t nearly as methodical. Their likely starters for Games 1 and 2, Johnny Cueto and Yordano Ventura, were each vulnerable at multiple points this postseason.

The Royals also have their own power trio, but you’ll find it in the bullpen. Relievers Kelvin Herrera, Luke Hochevar and Wade Davis generally pitch the final three innings in order like clockwork and have allowed one collective earned run in 21 innings these playoffs. 

The Royals relievers have given Yost the freedom to not push starters late into games, a valuable luxury not afforded to many in postseason play. And if games get pushed late, this advantage will be a major factor.

Recall how Davis forced a groundout from AL MVP favorite Josh Donaldson with two runners on in the final play of the ALCS—the epitome of clutch, sufficiently summed up by Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star:

Prediction

One of these teams is on the cusp of ending a lengthy championship drought, as ESPN Stats & Info noted: 

The Mets have proven doubters wrong all season and certainly have a championship-caliber rotation that will give the Royals fits. 

But Kansas City will counter with consistent offense, sound defense and a shutdown bullpen. The Royals never sank into a midseason slump and only rode three four-game skids. They continue to prove with their play that their “unfinished business” bravado will carry them to the crown.

Prediction: Royals over Mets in 6

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After a dominating sweep of the Chicago Cubs in the National League Championship Series, the New York Mets are the early favorites to win their first championship since 1986, according to Odds Shark.

The Mets narrowly edged the Kansas City Royals in the most updated odds, released before the end of the American League Championship Series. 

One team is assured to snap a lengthy title drought. The Royals and Mets last won championships in the 1985 and 1986 seasons, respectively. 

The Mets entered the postseason 11-26 in the regular season against fellow playoff teams, but that seems like ages ago. They won their first two playoff series against the favored Los Angeles Dodgers and Cubs in convincing fashion behind outstanding pitching and a rejuvenated offense. 

The Mets have averaged 6.1 runs per game these playoffs against the likes of Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. 

But now comes the most monumental test yet. 

They’ll face a Royals team hungry and experienced after losing it all last year in Game 7. New York went 4-1 on the road in the first two rounds but will go into the hostile confines of Kauffman Stadium for Games 1 and 2 and possibly Games 6 and 7. 

With the World Series just days away, here’s a guide to the Fall Classic.

Pitching

The Mets might not be here if it wasn’t for their sensational pitching staff. Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom are a combined 6-1 with a 2.36 ERA over 45.2 innings this postseason. In that span, they’ve allowed just 12 hits and struck out 63. Steven Matz, reliable but not among the dominant trio, rounds out the four-man playoff rotation.

Mets pitchers allowed 3.2 runs per game from the Dodgers and Cubs. What’s scary is that they’re improving as the postseason progresses. In the NLCS, the Mets held the Cubs to a .164 batting average, a .225 on-base percentage and a .297 slugging percentage—a team that had homered 10 times in four games during the National League Division Series.

By sweeping the Cubs, the Mets were afforded a full five days’ rest, which allows manager Terry Collins to keenly set his rotation—which could feature Matt Harvey more than expected, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com:

As DiComo indicates, it’s interesting that deGrom is the pitcher who may be limited. Harvey is in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and was the center of speculation when he wouldn’t confirm nor deny he’d even pitch in the postseason in September. Harvey’s doctors set a 180-innings high mark for the right-hander, yet he’s at 202 innings, fifth-most by a pitcher in his first season back from Tommy John, according to Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News.

Marc Craig of Newsday reported deGrom and Harvey will start Games 1 and 2 though the order isn’t yet determined, while Syndergaard will start Game 3.

Regardless, manager Terry Collins is confident in anyone he sends out, per Ackert:

These guys are going to be really good and this experience is going to make them that much better. The extra rest we’re gonna get right now I think is going to benefit us more than it’s gonna hurt us. That’s who we’re going to ride. I don’t care who we play, you gotta like our pitching. … You name it, we’ve pitched good. These guys are good. I have a lot of confidence in them.

The Mets will have the starting pitching advantage. The Royals have had muddled starts from the top of their rotation, highlighted by an eight-run outing from Johnny Cueto in Game 3 of the ALCS. Overall, Royals pitchers had a combined 5.98 ERA this postseason entering Friday’s Game 6.

Offense

The Mets have pitched comfortably this postseason in large part to consistent offense that has averaged 6.1 runs per game and never trailed once in the NLCS. As great as the pitching has been, Bernie Pleskoff of MLBPipeline.com noted their success is rooted in balance:

Yet in the final week of July, the Mets were second in the NL East, and their offense ranked dead last in scoring. Not many envisioned a turn-around, particularly ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark.

“Who could have seen this?,” Stark wrote. “Who could have known? Who could have envisioned that three months later, the New York Mets would be heading for their first World Series in 15 years?”

It took a midseason makeover to get the lineup to championship caliber. The Mets called up Michael Conforto, activated Travis d’Arnaud and traded for Juan Uribe and Yoenis Cespedes. Over the final two months, the Mets averaged 5.4 runs per game, a massive surplus to the 3.5 they posted prior to the trade deadline.

There’s little doubt they might not be here if it wasn’t for their complete offensive reconstruction.

The Royals, meanwhile, entered Friday’s Game 6 having scored 58 runs this postseason and 33 in the series alone. Perhaps what’s most impressive is their efficiency; they put the ball in play an MLB-high 74 percent of the time while striking out an MLB-low 15.9 percent of the time, according to Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated.

The Royals have proved all postseason they can manufacture runs when needed. 

On the brink of elimination in Game 4 of the ALDS against the Houston Astros, the Royals scored five runs in the eighth inning to shift the series back home. In Game 2 of the ALCS, they padded five in the eighth inning against Blue Jays ace David Price in a 6-3 win. Even in an 11-8 loss in Game 3 of the ALCS, they churned in four in the ninth to make the score respectable. And then, of course, there’s Game 5 of the ALCS, in which they smacked in 14 to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Given the balance each team possesses and the potential to counter each other’s attack, this series has the shape to go deep.

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The Toronto Blue Jays’ continued resolve manifested a 7-1 victory in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series on Wednesday, keeping the Kansas City Royals close as the series shifts back to Kauffman Stadium.   

The Blue Jays are now 4-0 in elimination games this postseason and have outscored opponents 26-9 in those contests—exhibiting an awakened offense when pushed to the brink. But the challenge elevates as they return to Kansas City, where they were limited to a combined three runs in a pair of losses to open the series.

As the best-of-seven series hits the final stretch, both teams get back their top starters on full rest, giving ALCS audiences a tasty treat as the World Series looms.

Blue Jays vs. Royals: Game 6

When: Friday, Oct. 23, at 8:07 p.m. ET

Where: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri

TV: Fox Sports 1 / Sportsnet

Live Stream: Fox Sports Go

Odds (via Odds Shark): Toronto -1.5

Tickets: ScoreBig.com

Preview

Pitching Matchup: David Price (Blue Jays) vs. Yordano Ventura (Royals)

Thanks to the Blue Jays’ dominating win in Game 5, Price was spared from being used out of the bullpen. He will start Game 6 hoping to keep the season alive but, perhaps more chiefly, also to erase his recent playoff woes.  

Anyone who has remotely followed the postseason knows of Price’s postseason struggles. He’s 0-7 with a 5.44 ERA in seven career playoff starts, capped by a meltdown in Game 2 in which he retired a Toronto-record 18 straight batters before allowing five runs in the seventh in the Blue Jays’ 6-3 loss. 

No one is more aware of his shortfalls than Price, as he indicated shortly after the Game 2 debacle:

A loss with Price at the helm would be a crushing blow to a Blue Jays front office that traded three pitchers for the star lefty before the non-waiver trade deadline with expectations that he could immediately solidify a championship rotation.

General manager Alex Anthopoulos can’t confidently say, “Hey, there’s always next year,” on the Cy Young Award candidate, as he’s an impending free agent likely to command a $200 million (or more) contract this offseason—likely outside Toronto’s budget. 

Opposite Price will be the Royals’ hard-hurling Yordano Ventura, who’s had an equally, if not more, taxing postseason. Ventura has allowed nine earned runs in 12.1 innings pitched with a .308 average against. The Royals have won two of his three starts, though one thanks to Price’s meltdown in Game 2. 

An ALCS-clinching win would continue adding to what’s been a topsy-turvy season for the 24-year-old righty. Ventura was the Opening Day starter, demoted to Triple-A in July, recalled a day later, then churned out eight straight starts without a loss and now finds himself in the midst of a playoff funk.

Toronto manager John Gibbons is optimistic Ventura’s ebb and flow could continue, per Jeff Rosen of the Toronto Star:

Ventura looked settled for most of Game 2 but exited after allowing two Blue Jays runs in the sixth and widened the Royals’ deficit to 3-0. He went 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA against the Houston Astros in the American League Division Series. 

Given Toronto’s ability to score at will, the Royals need Ventura to return to his 2014 form in which he led Kansas City to four wins in four starts while limiting batters to a .231/.297/.341 slash line. 

Per KMBC 9 News Kansas City, Royals manager Ned Yost told reporters he has confidence in Ventura’s ability but that the lefty’s success will be dictated by command of his second-tier pitches.

He keeps us in the game. In these types of games, you feel real good with him going even though he’s a young guy. He’s got a lot of confidence in his abilities. He’s got a lot of confidence in his stuff. You know the moment is not going to overwhelm him. He’s gotten past all that. He’s learned some great lessons this year about how to handle adversity and how to be a No. 1 guy. We saw it last year during the playoffs. He just kind of found a way to take his game to just a little bit of a different level. We expect him to do that [in Game 6].

There’s no doubting Ventura’s velocity, which consistently reaches the high 90s, per MLB.com’s Richard Justice, but one of his ongoing weaknesses has been in-game longevity, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports noted:

Prediction

Before the series was even underway, most believed it would feature two trips to Kansas City. These teams battled for the AL’s top seed through the final week of the season, and now the Royals can capitalize by closing the series in their backyard.

As raucous as the crowd was in Toronto, KC has been the better team at home and is going for its fifth straight playoff win at Kauffman Stadium. Yost likes his club’s chances with two opportunities to close the series, as he told reporters, per KMBC 9 News Kansas City:

If this series has shown anything, it’s that there’s no shortage of offense and that overcoming deficits has been a challenge. Both teams are combining to average 13.2 runs per game, and the team with the lead after the third inning—yes, there have been runs that early in each contest—has won four of the five games.

Expect these trends to continue before an AL champion is crowned this weekend. 

Price will overcome his one-inning blemish in Game 2 and finally secure his first postseason victory as a starter but not without a few minor hiccups along the way. The Blue Jays may possess what’s been a back-and-forth momentum exchange, but the Royals offense won’t shy.

The Blue Jays have been battle-tested all October and have confidently shook adversity’s hand at every step. Against a sporadic Ventura, Toronto will take and build upon an early lead to give Price a comfortable cushion and push the ALCS to an all-deciding Game 7. 

Game 6 Prediction: Blue Jays 6, Royals 4

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Plenty of new blood and a few familiar faces have made the 2015 MLB postseason arguably the most exciting one in years.

Six new teams reached the playoffs this year, and one of the four remaining will quench a lengthy title drought. The Toronto Blue Jays, here for the first time since 1993, have faced adversity at every corner despite being the early favorites. The Kansas City Royals snapped a 29-year playoff drought only a year ago, yet they are the most veteran group among the remaining teams.

The New York Mets are seeking their first World Series title since 1986 behind a youthful yet powerful rotation. The Chicago Cubs are hoping to throw a party that is 107 years in the making.

Parity has presented a refreshing new era for baseball. Now only a week away, here’s a look at the Fall Classic schedule:

NLCS: New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs (Mets Lead 2-0)

The Cubs trail 2-0 in the National League Championship Series and have already used their top starters, Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta, who gave up an uncharacteristic three runs in the first inning of Game 2—snapping a streak of 26 consecutive starts without allowing a run in the opening frame.

The Mets offense continues to hang with the best and is now a combined 4-2 against Chicago’s duo and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in the playoffs. In Games 3 and 4, the Mets will face Kyle Hendricks and likely Jason Hammel, who each made one National League Division Series start with a combined 5.86 ERA over 7.2 innings.

Manager Joe Maddon insists he won’t start Lester on three days’ rest, per CBS Chicago. Regardless, the Cubs are in trouble, as Arrieta admitted to Jon Tayler of Sports Illustrated. “We’ve got work to do,” he said. “The good thing is we get to go home, play three games in Wrigley Field, and come out ready to go, which we will be. The series is not over.”

Chicago can’t blame everything on its pitching. The Cubs offense manufactured just one run of support and struck out 20 times in Games 1 and 2. The team’s hopes will now ride to Wrigley Field, where seven Chicago players smacked a combined nine home runs in the team’s NLDS win over the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Mets will counter with Jacob deGrom, whose two regular-season losses to the Cubs—in which he allowed seven earned runs with six walks and seven strikeouts over 10.1 innings—seem like ages ago. In two NLDS starts, he allowed two runs over 13 innings against the Dodgers.

Game 3 is a must-win for the Cubs. A loss would put them down 3-0, and only once in postseason history has a team come back from such a deficit. But even if the Cubs manage to pull out a victory, New York’s offense will be too much to surmount.

Prediction: Mets win in six games.

ALCS: Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Royals Lead 2-1)

The Royals held the high-powered Blue Jays offense to just three runs in Kansas City, but Toronto countered with 11 runs in a return home in Game 3—capturing a must-win and proving the series is far from over.

The Blue Jays have proved to be resilient throughout the playoffs, overcoming a 2-0 deficit in the American League Division Series while dealing with ongoing attrition. They’ll host two more games at Rogers Centre, where the Royals have now lost four of their last five this year.

R.A. Dickey will take the hill in Game 4, riding seven days’ rest after pitching just 4.2 innings in Game 4 of the ALDS. Marco Estrada, coming off a trying Game 1 in which he allowed three runs over 5.1 innings, will likely pitch Game 5.

They’ll be complemented by an offense that’s averaging six runs per game at home in the postseason. Troy Tulowitzki blasted a pivotal three-run home run in Game 3 and is proving his postseason worth after the trade-deadline deal the Blue Jays made for him.

The Royals should be discouraged by the performance they got from No. 1 starter Johnny Cueto, who allowed eight runs and didn’t make it out of the third inning.

While the Royals were convincing in their two wins, those contests seemed like an uncharacteristic Blue Jays stumble. The Blue Jays will be tough to beat at home, but even if they sweep the three games in Toronto, they’ll still have to head back to Kauffman Stadium.

Toronto has taken the momentum and should return to Kansas City with a 3-2 edge. And with two opportunities to close out the series, the Blue Jays will slug their way to the Fall Classic.

Prediction: Blue Jays win in seven games.

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The Kansas City Royals, two wins away from reaching their second straight World Series, march north of the border Monday after thwarting the Toronto Blue Jays in Games 1 and 2 of the American League Championship Series.

Kansas City held Toronto’s high-octane offense to three hits and no runs in Game 1, then exploited Blue Jays ace David Price for five runs late in Game 2 for another improbable come-from-behind win, this time 6-3. 

Price, who fell to 0-7 with a 5.44 ERA in seven postseason starts, took to Twitter to voice his belief that the Blue Jays are not down and out yet:

As the series shifts to Toronto, here is a viewing guide for Game 3 with ticket info and odds:

Game 3 Guide

Where: Rogers Centre in Toronto

When: Monday, Oct. 19, at 8:07 p.m. ET

Tickets: ScoreBig.com

TV: Fox Sports 1

Odds (via Odds Shark): Toronto 10-17, Kansas City 8-5

Preview

Dating back to 1985, the Royals have won nine straight ALCS contests, and they continue to show the resilience they rode until defeat in Game 7 of the World Series last year. 

But Toronto was in this position a week ago before orchestrating three straight wins over the Texas Rangers to become the seventh team ever to recover from a 2-0 deficit in a division series. And the Blue Jays return to Rogers Centre, where they boasted the league’s fourth-best home record (53-28) in the regular season.

Manager John Gibbons noted the urgency but maintained confidence following Game 2, per Gregor Chisholm and Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. “Our back is against the wall, but it will be good to go back home, where we normally play well. … We feel good,” Gibbons said. “It’s a lot tougher from here. But we have a pretty good team, too.”

As difficult as their Game 2 loss was, Richard Justice of MLB.com noted the Blue Jays won’t blink:

Defeats come in all sorts of shapes and sizes. This was the worst kind and not just because it backed the Blue Jays into another corner. 

The Blue Jays can deal with corners. They lost two straight games at home before winning three straight elimination games in the AL Division Series against the Rangers. This challenge isn’t as difficult as that one.

Taking the hill for Toronto, Marcus Stroman will look for his first postseason win after pitching 13 innings with two no-decisions in the American League Division Series, including Toronto’s Game 5 victory over Texas. Stroman, who was thought to be lost for the year after suffering a torn ACL in March, made a remarkable return late in the season and was a key cog in the team’s rotation.

His repertoire features six pitches, but his bravado could be the difference.

“He’s got a great arm. He’s got great stuff, whatever you want to call it,” Gibbons said, per David Waldstein of the New York Times. “But there’s something different about him, too, and I expect that if anyone can rise to the occasion, it would be him.”

Opposite Stroman will be Royals right-hander Johnny Cueto, who is coming off an ALDS-clinching win over the Houston Astros in which he retired the final 19 hitters he faced. It was the defining moment of Cueto’s tenure in Kansas City, which could last as long as the Royals do, as he’ll be a high-priced free agent in the offseason.

The Royals acquired Cueto at the trade deadline for moments like this, as general manager Dayton Moore told Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

“We knew Johnny would give us innings, help solidify our rotation and be a guy that can match up well against the better teams in baseball,” Moore said.

Should the game go to the bullpen, the advantage is Kansas City’s. Royals relievers held the Blue Jays to three hits and no runs over 6.2 innings in the first two games. The Blue Jays bullpen finished the final month of the regular season with the third-worst ERA (5.08) in the majors, per FanGraphs, though Toronto relievers are 2-1 with a .225 batting average against in the postseason.

The Blue Jays hope to avoid a seemingly insurmountable 3-0 hole, a margin that only one team has ever overcome in a best-of-seven series: the Boston Red Sox in the 2004 ALCS. But Toronto proved its identity is rooted in resilience after a defining come-from-behind ALDS victory over Texas. If Stroman can maintain his poise and the Blue Jays offense can find life, the series has the potential to go deep.

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Facing an unfavorable 2-0 deficit against the Kansas City Royals in the American League Championship Series, the Toronto Blue Jays return home Monday. But they’ve already been in this position in the 2015 postseason.  

Toronto became the seventh team in MLB history to overcome a 2-0 deficit in a division series after churning out three consecutive wins over the Texas Rangers in the American League Division Series. As right fielder Jose Bautista indicated to MLB.com’s Richard Justice, last week’s comeback has instilled confidence in the team.

“We’ve been in the same situation before,” Bautista said. “We have a little bit of experience being down 0-2. It’s not the most comfortable place to be, but we’re still confident.”

But the Royals present a tall task. Their 29-year playoff drought, quenched in 2014, is so last year. They’ve since rattled off an 11-6 postseason record and embodied resilience in a back-and-forth, five-game ALDS victory over the Houston Astros.

Kansas City plays with confidence, as it should, per MLB GIFs:

The ALCS winner will face a formidable foe in either the Chicago Cubs or New York Mets, who both boast brawny lineups that are chock-full of power in addition to solid pitching. 

Though youth might be perceived as a weakness for the Cubs and Mets—their position-player starters are 24.8 and 28.6 years old on average, respectively—it might be their hidden strength, as Chris Cwik of Yahoo Sports noted:

The common thought was that both of these teams were still a year or two away from actual contention. A large part of that has to do with both clubs depending on young players. It’s always risky to bet on prospects. Some take years to make an impact, others never develop and a smaller portion are superstars immediately. 

Both the Cubs and Mets feature more of the latter.

The Blue Jays are in the postseason for the first time since 1993, but they have plenty of veteran leadership with October experience. And the Royals, of course, were a win away from the title last year. Either way, the World Series is shaping up to be a young-versus-experienced matchup.

With the World Series just over a week away, here is a look at the remaining ALCS schedule:

Predictions

The Blue Jays have a chance to exact revenge on a grudge that is 30 years in the making.

Toronto met Kansas City for the AL crown in 1985, with the Blue Jays winning the first two games at home before an epic collapse that pushed the Royals to the World Series—and eventually their first and only major league title.

Shi Davidi of Sportsnet wrote the following: “Such eliminations don’t happen very often, and they leave an enduring heartache.”

History indicates the odds aren’t in the Blue Jays’ favor—only three of 25 teams have come back from 2-0 deficits in LCS history. In fact, they have only a 19.9 percent chance of winning the series, per FanGraphs. But given the Blue Jays’ proven perseverance, unforgiving lineup and highly capable rotation, they’re still the team to beat.

They return to the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, where they smacked 123 home runs and scored 450 runs in the regular season, a league high. But their pitching has been a hidden gem at home as well. 

The Blue Jays’ respective starters for Games 3 and 4, Marcus Stroman and R.A. Dickey, have found a haven within their home confines. Mike Petriello of MLB.com took a closer look at the pair’s stats:

Dickey, home: .208 BABIP
Dickey, road: .307 BABIP

Stroman, home: .264 BABIP
Stroman, road: .342 BABIP

That’s measuring “Batting Average on Balls in Play,” which is just a fancy way of asking how often a batted ball finds its way into a fielder’s glove for an out, and the differences are enormous, especially when it’s noted that the MLB average was .296.

Their balanced attack is why the Blue Jays will not only win the ALCS but also go on to top whichever team emerges from the National League—likely the Mets, given that they’ve shown they can halt the Cubs.

Chicago’s power is as good as any other team’s, but its lineup strikes out often—a league-high 1,518 times in the regular season. The Mets’ loaded rotation of Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom will present an insurmountable challenge.

The Cubs and Mets have been two of the best stories of 2015 and will both be October regulars among this new and exciting generation of baseball. The Cubs have locked up most of their impact players through 2019, and it doesn’t look as though the Mets intend to break up what could develop into MLB’s best rotation. 

But this has been, and will continue to be, Toronto’s year. 

The Blue Jays stumbled in the second half of 2014 and blew a seven-game lead in the AL East, which prompted general manager Alex Anthopoulos to push all his chips to the middle this year, making trade-deadline deals that hauled in superstars David Price and Troy Tulowitzki, neither of whom the team will be able to afford in the long term. 

Talent, experience, leadership and will are intangibles that permeate within the veteran Blue Jays clubhouse and are why Toronto will win the title.

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The American League Division Series resumes Sunday with both teams from Texas inching closer to a Lone Star showdown in the League Championship Series.

The Houston Astros are looking to overcome a late loss on Friday and break a 1-1 tie against the defending AL champion Kansas City Royals at Minute Maid Park, where they posted the majors’ fifth-best home record (53-28). 

Meanwhile, with a win at home, the Texas Rangers can sweep the Toronto Blue Jays, who entered the postseason as the World Series favorites, according to OddsShark.com.

Urgency is a major factor in both best-of-five series, and here is a guide to the AL action on Sunday, Oct. 11.

Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros

Time: 4 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Live Stream: MLB Network Live

Probable Starters: Edinson Volquez (Royals) vs. Dallas Keuchel (Astros)

The Astros are coming off a stinging 5-4 loss in Game 2 in which they blew an early three-run lead. However, the Royals needed a majority of their well-equipped pitching arsenal to secure the win. 

Starter Johnny Cueto, essentially on rent as an impending high-price free agent, allowed four runs in the first three innings. Kansas City was forced to turn to its three shutdown relievers—Kelvin Herrera, Ryan Madson and Wade Davis—in consecutive innings to hold on. 

The series shifts to hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park, where the Astros smacked 128 home runs this year, tied for the most in the majors by a home team, according to baseball-reference.com.

The Astros have belted five homers in three playoff games thus far, including three from Colby Rasmus, who is hitting a red-hot .444 this postseason and has driven in the first Astros run in all three postseason games. 

Houston’s offense will be complemented by Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel, who is coming off six shutout innings on three days’ rest against the Yankees in the AL Wild Card Game. But perhaps more paramount, Keuchel is 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA at home. 

Nonetheless, Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer exhibited confidence when speaking about Houston’s bearded hurler to Ted Berg of USA Today: “We do well against aces,” Hosmer said. “We’re going to go in there and battle, try to get off to an early lead. The way the bullpen’s been throwing for us, if we can just get out to an early lead as an offense, we’ll feel pretty good about it.”

But if the playoffs have shown anything, it’s that an ace is far from a sure bet. The Chicago Cubs’ Jon Lester, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw and the Toronto Blue Jays’ David Price all suffered defeats in Game 1 of their respective series. 

But given that the Astros have embodied poise and resiliency, even in a Game 2 defeat, Keuchel and the surging offense will be too tough to overcome. 

Prediction: Astros 3, Royals 2

Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers

Time: 8 p.m. ET

TV: Fox Sports 1

Live Stream: Fox Sports Go

Probable Starters: Marco Estrada (Blue Jays) vs. Martin Perez (Rangers)

The Blue Jays went from championship favorite to the brink of elimination in the span of just two days. 

The Rangers marched into the Rogers Centre and captured two wins over a beleaguered Blue Jays bunch that hobbles into Texas looking to save their season.

Toronto lost a one-run lead in the eighth inning of Game 2 when pinch-hitting Mike Napoli lined an RBI single to tie the game at four. The Rangers went on to score a pair of two-out runs in the 14th inning and hold on to a 6-4 win, leaving the Blue Jays with hopes to become just the sixth team since the LDS was implemented in 1995 to overcome an 0-2 deficit. 

Though the odds to win the series aren’t in the Blue Jays’ favor, a sweep seems unlikely. As Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star indicates, the team hasn’t lost three consecutive games since July 2-4—long before their midseason makeover that brought in superstars Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. 

The Blue Jays’ starter on Sunday, Marco Estrada, was one of the hottest pitchers after the All-Star break ranking behind only Price in second-half ERA among qualified pitchers, according to ESPN. He also held batters to a .203 average, tops in the AL, per John Lott of the National Post. 

Blue Jays manager Josh Gibbons admitted to Neil Davidson of the Canadian Press (h/t Calgary Herald) he didn’t expect such a surge from the righty. 

“I really can’t say truthfully what we expected out of him going into the season. I don’t know. Didn’t expect this, I know that,” Gibbons said. 

The Blue Jays may be eyeing elimination, but indications point to a resurgence in Game 3. 

Prediction: Blue Jays 5, Rangers 3

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Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Brett Cecil left Friday’s American League Division Series game against the Texas Rangers in the eighth inning with what manager John Gibbons describes as a “pretty significant tear in his calf”, per Scott MacArthur of TSN.

Continue for updates.

What Cecil Means to Toronto Bullpen

The Blue Jays lefty took over in the eighth for Marcus Stroman, who allowed three earned runs (four total) on five hits over seven innings. Cecil allowed a leadoff single to Delino DeShields, then retired Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder before allowing an RBI single to the pinch-hitting Napoli that tied the game at four.

Cecil’s attempted pickoff prompted Napoli to take off for second, thus creating the rundown that led to the injury.

Cecil has been arguably the best reliever for a Toronto bullpen that had the 28th-worst ERA (5.08) in September and October, according to ESPN Stats & Info. His earned run on Napoli’s pinch hit was the first he’d allowed since June 21, a span of 31.2 innings over 37 appearances, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

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The playoffs have featured underdog wins in each of the first three games, highlighting the parity running rampant in baseball.

On Thursday, the World Series favorite Toronto Blue Jays fell 5-3 at home to the second-half-surging Texas Rangers while losing MVP candidate Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista in the process.

Chicago Cubs ace Jake Arrieta stunned the Pittsburgh Pirates in Wednesday’s 4-0 win in the National League Wild Card Game, becoming the first pitcher in postseason history to throw at least 10 strikeouts with no walks, according to Ace of MLB Stats.

Meanwhile, the 100-win St. Louis Cardinals seem to have their beleaguered roster intact at the right time with Adam Wainwright’s return last week and the addition of Yadier Molina to the playoff roster.

With the division series off and running, here are a few key matchups to watch. 

Cardinals Meet Cubs for First Time in Postseason

Given their chronicled history—2,363 meetings, according to Dayn Perry of CBS Sports—it’s hard to believe the Cubs and Cardinals have never clashed beyond the regular season.

Before 1969, the playoffs only consisted of the World Series between the National and American League champions. The Cubs and Cardinals play in the same league. From 1969 to 1994, after the league championship series was implemented, only division winners met in the semifinals. The Cubs and Cardinals play in the same division. Major League Baseball added the division series in 1995, so the clubs have only had 20 chances before now to meet in the playoffs. 

Since then, the Cubs qualified for the postseason in 1998, 2003, 2007 and 2008—ironically just four of the eight years the Cardinals missed in that span.

St. Louis certainly holds a stronger playoff pedigree, with this year marking its 12th trip to the postseason since 2000. The Cardinals are among just four of the 19 teams the Cubs had a losing record to in 2015, having won the season series 11-8. 

After starting the NL Wild Card Game, Arrieta won’t pitch until the series shifts to Wrigley Field for Game 3, according to Mike Axisa of CBS Sports. That means Chicago will lean on Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks against a St. Louis squad that won an MLB-high 55 games at home. 

Astros Using Royals Blueprint to Postseason Success

Are this year’s Astros last year’s Royals?

Given their young talent, surprise success and lengthy postseason absences before reaching in consecutive years, it’s hard not to draw parallels, as MLB.com’s Richard Justice writes:

At this time last season, the Royals were the fresh new faces introducing themselves to the nation one sliding catch, one clutch hit a time. They were out there playing hard and laughing and seemingly having the best time of their lives. In other words, the 2014 Royals looked just like the ’15 Astros.

Last year, nobody knew what to expect from the Royals. And that’s somewhat the case for this year’s Astros after they made a chest-pumping statement of arrival in Tuesday’s 3-0 win over the Yankees—eerily similar to Kansas City outlasting Oakland in a 12-inning AL Wild Card Game last fall.

The Royals’ run to the World Series captured the hearts of baseball, and the Astros have the bravado to do the same, as the Daily Progress’ Nick Mathews notes:

This series could come down to home-field advantage.

The Astros won convincingly Tuesday at Yankee Stadium in the AL Wild Card Game but were 33-48 on the road this year—the second-worst winning-percentage by a postseason team in history, according to STATS (h/t Associated Press). Kansas City took two of three from Houston at Kauffman Stadium and went 51-30 overall at home. The Royals were swept by the Astros in Houston in June. 

As Dave Skretta of the AP writes, the Houston offense is predicated on power and benefited from playing at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park, where the Astros hit 128 of their 230 home runs—tops in the majors, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

The Royals still ache from falling to the San Francisco Giants in Game 7 of the World Series, while the Astros keep silencing their doubters.

This should be fun. 

Dodgers To Start Kershaw Over Greinke in Game 1 vs. Mets

Reigning NL MVP Clayton Kershaw will start for the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 versus the New York Mets, while fellow Cy Young contender Zack Greinke will start Game 2. This is the third straight year the Dodgers have dished out Kershaw-Greinke to open the National League Division Series.

In nine starts against the Mets, Kershaw is 6-0 with a 1.34 ERA and 61 strikeouts over 60.1 innings, according to Baseball-Reference.com. However, the three-time Cy Young winner is 1-5 with a 5.12 ERA in 11 playoff starts, and the Dodgers are winless in his last four. Manager Don Mattingly offered a narrow perspective to the Sports Xchange (via UPI.com) when asked about Kershaw’s recent woes:

I look at this year in the present tense. There are probably only a few people in the world who could talk about Kershaw. If you don’t talk to Sandy Koufax or Bob Gibson or somebody like that, there’s really nobody else who’s on his level. I don’t need to defend him. This year is this year. We’ll see what happens.

If the Dodgers fall behind in the series—meaning the Mets steal at least one in L.A.—Kershaw and Greinke could each pitch on short rest, according to JP Hoornstra of the Los Angeles Daily News. Kershaw has pitched on three days’ rest in each of the last three Dodgers’ playoff series dating back to 2013. 

Greinke’s 1.66 ERA was the lowest in the majors since Greg Maddux posted 1.63 in 1995, according to Mike Fitzpatrick of the Associated Press.

The Mets were 1-1 in games against Greinke in the regular season and 4-3 overall against the Dodgers, the only playoff team they posted a winning record against among six qualifying teams. The Mets went 11-26 against the others.

And these Mets aren’t the Mets who last played the Dodgers in late July. They’ve since acquired superstar Yoenis Cespedes, Kelly Johnson, Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard and activated David Wright from the disabled list. 

If they can get ahead of L.A.’s aces early and win their games at home, the Mets could march towards their first National League Championship Series appearance since 2006. 

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With six new teams in the mix along with a few familiar faces, the MLB postseason boasts plenty of intriguing storylines.

The Wild Card Game is now in its fourth year and has been a huge success, highlighted by last year’s winners—the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals—meeting in the World Series. This season features another pair of exciting matchups.      

The Houston Astros and New York Yankees meet in a clash of AL teams that lost their division leads late. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates play on Wednesday for a trip to the National League Division Series, where the division rival St. Louis Cardinals await.

As the playoff picture takes shape, we glance at a few angles worthy of chatter.

Cubs Ace Arrieta Makes Postseason Debut

Despite an outstanding 2014, Cubs starter Jake Arrieta was hidden in the huge shadow of Jon Lester following the lefty’s six-year, $155 million contract this offseason. Yet an MLB-high 22 wins, a no-hitter and a Cy Young Award-worthy campaign later, Arrieta gets the nod for his first playoff game against the Pirates, a team he finished 3-1 with a 0.75 ERA against this year.

Arrieta’s success is rooted in his repertoire. He throws five pitches, per FanGraphs, and delivers with pinpoint accuracy evidenced by his 236 strikeouts. 

His poise has been a key as well, and how he handles the playoff pressure will be worth observing. On Sunday, Arrieta responded to Pirates fans on Twitter echoing confidence. 

The Cubs are 17-1 in Arrieta’s past 18 starts, and he’s riding arguably the best second-half performance in MLB history.

Can Mets Overcome Dodgers’ One-Two Pitching Punch?

The New York Mets won the NL East by seven games over a Washington Nationals team that was the preseason favorite to win the World Series, per Odds Shark.

But now they face the daunting task of traveling cross-country and overcoming two of the three best pitchers in baseball on the road. The Los Angeles Dodgers haven’t announced which Cy Young candidate—Clayton Kershaw or Zack Greinke—they’ll dish out first, though it’s almost assured the pair will split Games 1 and 2.

Though the Mets struggled against most playoff teams—going a combined 11-26 against the six qualifying clubs they faced—they were 4-3 against the Dodgers this year and 1-1 in games against Kershaw and Greinke. 

If the Mets can steal one in L.A., they’ll return with home-field advantage to Citi Field, where they posted the eighth-best home record (49-32) in the majors.

Blue Jays Favored to Win It All

In the postseason for the first time since 1993, the Toronto Blue Jays are betting favorites to win the World Series at plus-300, according to Odd Shark. 

Below is a list of the 10 playoff teams and their odds:

Toronto went 42-14 since making trade-deadline deals that brought in superstars Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, the favorite for the AL Cy Young, per ESPN. Price will anchor a rotation that houses three of the top five AL pitchers in second-half ERA in himself, R.A. Dickey and Marco Estrada, according to Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star.        

But offense is why the Blue Jays can win it all. They led the majors in runs, homers, extra-base hits, walks, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS. And their plus-221 run differential was a whopping 99 more than the second-place Cardinals—the highest margin between first and second in that category since 1953, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.

It’s October, meaning any team can get on an unforeseen tear. But given their awfully strong finish, it’s difficult not to like the Blue Jays’ chances. 

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