Kuzul

Every year there are sleepers that get so much hype they become overvalued. This year that list includes rookies Matt Moore and Bryce Harper and second-year men Brett Lawrie, Desmond Jennings and Eric Hosmer.

In this piece I will try to convince you that you should wait for someone like Freddie Freeman that will give you similar stats instead of overpaying for Eric Hosmer.

I like Hosmer as much as the next guy. He helped me claim a fantasy baseball championship last year. He was Baseball America’s eighth-ranked prospect heading into 2011 and didn’t disappoint when he was promoted in early May. The 22-year-old hit .293 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 523 at-bats.

I think his price tag (ADP of 53 at Mock Draft Central) is high for a first baseman that isn’t going to hit more than 25 home runs. Hosmer never hit more than 20 home runs in the minors, he hits more ground balls than fly balls (1.04 GB/FB in ’11) and he had an inflated 10.1 percent HR/FB ratio.

A whole 67 picks later, you can draft Freddie Freeman. Despite starting out slow (.217 average and three home runs through May 6), the 22-year-old finished the season with a .282 average, 21 home runs and 76 RBIs. I expect Freeman to have an average closer to .300 in 2012. From May 1 on, his average was .294 and he was a career .301 hitter in the minors.

Like Hosmer, I don’t expect Freeman to hit more than 25 home runs in 2012. He is more of a gap hitter at this stage in his career, but those doubles will start turning into more and more home runs for the 6’5″ lefty as he fills out his frame.

Let’s look at some 2011 stats:

Batting Average

Hosmer: .293

Freeman: .282

At-Bats Per Home Run

Hosmer: 27.5

Freeman: 27.2

OPS

Hosmer: .799

Freeman: .795

I’m not saying that Freeman will have the better season in 2012. In fact, I would take Hosmer over Freeman if I had to choose between the two. He hits in the middle of the Royals‘ lineup which gives him more run and RBI potential. Also, his ability to swipe a sneaky 10-plus bags is a nice thing to have from a first baseman.

I’m just saying there’s no way that six rounds should separate the two. In a recent mock auction draft I participated in, Hosmer went for $26 and Freeman went for $10. Ridiculous.

Be smart and don’t overpay for Eric Hosmer on draft day.

For more fantasy baseball insight, visit us at www.fantasysportskings.com

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Since Citi Field opened in 2009, the Mets‘ home ballpark has been the hardest to hit a home run in. Citi Field has only allowed 1.43 home runs per game, the lowest of any stadium.

With a 415-foot power alley in right center and a wall 16 feet high in some places, it’s easy to see why this was such a pitcher-friendly park.

Citi Field will have new, smaller dimensions, however, for the 2012 season. Most notably, the wall in right center field will be moving in 17 feet. In addition, most of the outfield will have eight-foot walls, which will also help make this park a more hitter-friendly one.

Let’s take a look at how this may affect the fantasy values of a couple of Mets heading into the upcoming season.

David Wright

All of the Mets sluggers should benefit from Citi Field’s alterations, but especially David Wright. Wright hit a home run every 20.4 at-bats prior to 2009, compared to every 28.5 at-bats since.

He is the only Met to surpass 20 home runs since their new park opened.  He has a lot of power to the opposite field, and will be glad that right-center will be getting a face-lift.

Look for a boost in production from Jason Bay, Ike Davis, Lucas Duda and especially David Wright, who could have his first 30 home run season since 2008.

Johan Santana

While the new dimensions won’t make it easier for any of the Mets’ pitchers, it will be especially tough on Johan Santana. Of the starters, Santana has the worst GB/FB ratio.

Mike Pelfrey, Jonathon Niese, R.A. Dickey and Dillon Gee all induce about the same amount of ground balls as fly balls.

Santana, on the other hand, has generated only 0.61 ground balls per fly ball in his career. This ratio was even worse the last two years, at 0.56 and 0.61 in 2009 and 2010, respectively.

You can expect that some of the fly balls that would have fell harmlessly in the huge outfield will now be leaving the yard for a home run.

Even if it weren’t for the dimension changes, I would have passed on Santana in upcoming fantasy drafts. His velocity has been in steady decline and his strikeout rate has followed suit.

Add in his recent shoulder surgery and the new Citi Field dimensions, and you’re looking at a very high-risk player. Let someone else pay for the name.

For more fantasy baseball insight and to join the Beat the Kings fantasy league challenge, visit us at http://www.fantasysportskings.com/.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The definition of a reach is to pay for stats that a player has never been able to put up before.  Why pay for Mike Stanton like he’s going to hit 40 home runs?  Even if he does hit 40, you received no extra value because that’s what you paid for.  It’s not likely he will exceed those expectations, and if he under performs you made a bad investment.

Even if it’s not smart, it’s always fun to reach on a few players.  Everyone has their favorite guys, their sleepers.  While you probably can’t lose your league by taking a shot on someone late in the draft that doesn’t pan out, you can certainly help win it. 

 Here is my list of deep sleepers, guys ranked outside of ESPN’s top 300.

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Middle relief is the most unheralded position in baseball.  In real life, middle relievers are usually the weakest links on their team’s pitching staff and in fantasy baseball they are usually ignored altogether. 

In roto leagues you would be very wise to draft one or two middle relievers on your team, especially in deeper mixed leagues and in NL or AL-only leagues.  Keep in mind that in head to head points leagues middle relievers are pretty useless.  They are not as valuable in head to head roto leagues as well, unless your league allows daily lineup changes.

Some middle relievers can help out your ratios pretty significantly while others can give you some rogue saves. 

There is constantly closer turnover in the MLB.  Guys like John Axford and Neftali Feliz started 2010 as setup guys, but they were closing games before too long.  Roto teams are always chasing saves so why not get ahead of the curve and draft a couple middle relievers that have a chance at getting you some saves.

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