Kuzul

The Boston Red Sox failed to come to an agreement with first basemen Adrian Gonzalez today on a contract extension.

The botched deal comes on the heels of a potential blockbuster trade with the San Diego Padres agreed to earlier in the week. The Red Sox would have sent top prospects Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes plus a player to be named later to San Diego in exchange for Gonzalez.

Gonzalez will make $5.5 million in 2011, in what was supposed to be his final season before becoming a free agent. The Red Sox attempted to negotiate an extension with the slugger, but the two sides couldn’t agree on an appropriate figure. But how much is Gonzalez actually worth?

The only way to answer that question is to see what baseball’s other elite first basemen are being paid and how they were performing at the time that they signed their contracts. So with that, here’s a look at the other monster contracts that the game’s top first basemen have signed in recent years.

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The Boston Red Sox finally got the slugger they’ve been coveting for over a year today, completing a blockbuster trade with the San Diego Padres for first basemen Adrian Gonzalez.

Going to San Diego will be a collection of top Boston prospects, including Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes, and a player to be named later.

The trade gives the Red Sox one of the premier hitters in all of baseball. Gonzalez, 28, finished fourth in MVP voting last year after sporting a .904 OPS with 31 home runs and 33 doubles. The left-handed slugger is a Gold Glove first basemen and excels at driving the ball to the opposite field, which makes him perfectly suited for playing in Fenway Park.

Kevin Youkilis is now expected to move to third base and vacate the first base slot for Gonzalez, who softens the blow of losing both Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre to free agency.

But nothing’s free these days and Padres GM Jed Hoyer received a major haul of prospects for San Diego’s hometown hero. Who did the Red Sox give up and how might these players figure into the Padres plans in the future?

Read on to find out. 

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have been busy this offseason, locking up several players already and in the hunt for even more.

General manager Ned Colletti has been aggressive following a disappointing fourth-place finish for the Dodgers in the NL West. The team, picked by many to win the division, managed only an 80-82 record and was never really in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Colletti is determined to change that, building a roster around young studs Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.

But will the new additions be enough to vault the Dodgers past the defending world champions, the San Francisco Giants?

Here’s an early look at what the Dodgers have done so far and a grade for each of their moves. 

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The Yankees’ original offer of three years, $45 million wasn’t good enough. Jeter reportedly is seeking an annual salary of $23-24 million for a four or five-year contract, but New York GM Brian Cashman laughed that one off the table.

So how much is Jeter actually worth? Is it somewhere between $15 million and $25 million? Less than $15 million? More than $25 million?

Here’s a statistical breakdown of the market for players who put up similar numbers to Jeter.

By the Numbers

Last season, Jeter had easily the worst year of his career. His batting average dropped to .270, on-base percentage to .340 and slugging percentage to a laughable .370.

His park-adjusted OPS was a putrid 90. He still scored 111 runs, but only managed 179 hits and 10 home runs. His speed (18 stolen bases) is down, and he’s striking out more often (106 SO’s). 

At 36 years old, there’s little reason to believe that Jeter will be able to improve upon these numbers by very much. So, let’s be generous and assume that he will be able to average his 2010 numbers over the course of the next four seasons. 

Let’s look at a few of the other top infielders (current and former) in baseball and see what their career averages are. I’ve also included their salaries for 2011 and, just for the sake of argument, Jeter’s career averages and his 2010 line.

Derek Jeter (in 2010): .270 BA, .340 OBP, .370 SLG, 10 HR’s, 18 SB’s, $22.6 million (2010 salary)

Derek Jeter (36 years old): .314 BA, .385 OBP, .452 SLG, 17 HR’s, 23 SB’s

Chase Utley (31 years old): .293 BA, .380 OBP, .514 SLG, 29 HR’s, 15 SB’s, $15 million

Carlos Guillen (34 years old): .286 BA, .357 OBP, .445 SLG, 15 HR’s, 9 SB’s, $13 million

Michael Young (33 years old): .300 BA, .347 OBP, .448 SLG, 17 HR’s, 9 SB’s, $16 million

Adrian Beltre (31 years old): .275 BA, .328 OBP, .462 SLG, 25 HR’s, 10 SB’s, $14-15 million (estimated)

Jimmy Rollins (31 years old): .272 BA, .328 OBP, .435 SLG, 17 HR’s, 37 SB’s, $8.5 million

Rafael Furcal (32 years old): .286 BA, .351 OBP, .411 SLG, 12 HR’s, 34 SB’s, $12 million

David Wright (27 years old): .305 BA, .383 OBP, .516 SLG, 27 HR’s, 22 SB’s, $14 million

Jose Reyes (27 years old): .286 BA, .335 OBP, .434 SLG, 13 HR’s, 58 SB’s, $11 million

I’ve excluded players like Hanley Ramirez (26) and Troy Tulowitzki (25) from this discussion because they are signed to team-friendly deals that do not accurately reflect market demand. Still, this list of players provides a solid basis for comparison.

The most statistically similar players to Jeter, in terms of their career averages, are Utley (more power) and Young (less speed). This would suggest that Jeter is worth $15-16 million if he could replicate his career averages.

But if we instead use the line from his 2010 season, Jeter’s value plummets. His most statistically comparable players are Furcal (more speed) and Rollins (more speed and more power).

In this scenario, Jeter would be worth about $10 million.

A Case Study

Jeter is not the first Hall-of-Fame caliber infielder looking for his last major contract before retiring. Here’s another player you may have heard of, along with his career averages and 2010 season.

Scott Rolen (in 2010): .285 BA, .358 OBP, .497 SLG, 20 HR’s, 1 SB, $7.7 million

Scott Rolen (35 years old): .284 BA, .369 OBP, .498 SLG, 26 HR’s, 10 SB’s

Derek Jeter (in 2010): .270 BA, .340 OBP, .370 SLG, 10 HR’s, 18 SB’s, $22.6 million (2010 salary)

Derek Jeter (36 years old): .314 BA, .385 OBP, .452 SLG, 17 HR’s, 23 SB’s

Rolen, like Jeter, just finished playing under a major contract. Rolen’s contract extension was signed in 2002 with the St. Louis Cardinals for eight years and $90 million. He was supposed to be a free agent this offseason but the Cincinnati Reds resigned him for two years and $13 million. That’s right, Rolen will be making $6.5 million next season.

Rolen had easily a more productive year than Jeter in 2010, and his career averages are very comparable. Yet, Rolen (who is a year younger than Jeter) only gets a two-year, $13 million extension while Jeter is demanding potentially a four-year deal that could pay him $100 million.

What’s wrong with this picture?

The Verdict

There’s no question that Jeter is still a productive player and that he’s in good enough shape to continue performing well into his 40’s. But even if he was able to equal his career averages, Jeter would still not be worth more than $15 million.

This doesn’t even take into account that Jeter is a poor defensive shortstop and may have to move to third base, second base or the outfield. He may even have to DH one day. 

The Yankees are showing a tremendous amount of faith in Jeter by even offering him $45 million over three years. As a free agent, Jeter would be lucky to get a three-year offer for even $30 million. More likely, he’d have to settle for something along the lines of Rolen’s extension that would be loaded with some additional incentives if he outplays his contract.

It’s a given that Cashman will overpay free agents. That’s what the Yankees do. A 50 percent raise over market value is already an incredibly generous offer. Any more than that and the Yankees might as well just hand over their check books to Jeter and his agent Casey Close.

If Jeter would rather not play baseball next season than accept an overdue pay cut, then that’s his decision. But the Yankees have no reason to budge on their initial offer.

They don’t owe Jeter anything—the man’s already made $205 million as a a Yankee.

And we thought LeBron James had a big ego.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Baseball’s arbitration deadline is tomorrow, and several teams still have decisions to make.

A Type-A free agent who is offered arbitration and signs with a new team nets his former team a first-round draft pick and a supplemental draft pick. A Type-B free agent is worth a second-round draft pick and a supplemental pick. But there’s always the risk that a player will accept arbitration and be paid more than his worth to stay with his current team.

So do teams offer these free agents arbitration and hope that they’ll decline and sign elsewhere? Or do they withhold arbitration and abandon any chance of recouping draft picks?

Here’s a look at the 15 free agents most likely not to receive arbitration and why.

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Derek Jeter is still a free agent, much to the surprise of the entire baseball community.

Jeter’s agent, Casey Close, has said that he is “baffled” by the way negotiations are proceeding and how little respect the Yankees organization is showing for their most iconic player.

“They continue to argue their points in the press and refuse to acknowledge Derek’s total contribution to their franchise,” said Close, overlooking the fact that the Yankees have already paid Jeter more than $200 million over the course of his career.

Does Close really drink his own Kool-Aid?

The Facts

The Yankees have already offered Jeter a three-year deal worth $45 million. But the 36-year-old Jeter wants at least four years and has indicated he’d like to play until 2017.

If Jeter wants to play until he’s 43 when he’ll be relegated to utility-man duty, then that’s his prerogative. But the Yankees shouldn’t have to suffer because of it.

The $45 million contract that Jeter has already declined is not only fair, it’s about 50 percent more than what he’d receive on the free-agent market. Close is trying to take advantage of Jeter’s historic relationship with the team to inflate his client’s value.

That’s fine, if it wasn’t for one problem: Jeter’s value is already inflated to the point of bursting.

Let’s be perfectly clear here: Jeter is not a $15 million-a-year player. He may not even be a $10 million-a-year player, and the notion that he should be given a nine-figure contract is more asinine than the $19 million Carlos Lee made last season for a .708 OPS.

By the Numbers

 Jeter had a major drop-off in production in 2010, though naturally he was still an All-Star and a Gold Glove winner. His .270 batting average is more than 40 points below his career average of .314. His OPS dropped to .710 after reaching .871 in 2009. He hit eight less home runs (10) and stole 12 fewer bases (18) than he did in 2009, despite playing in four more games.

Jeter’s agent will argue that 2010 was an aberration and that Jeter is still an elite player. Or he may just be a 36-year-old shortstop with more than 2,000 games under his belt who may finally be on the decline.

It would be irresponsible for the Yankees to handcuff themselves to a player whose best years are clearly behind him, and is a defensive liability (despite what voters might tell you).

But they’re the Yankees! Can’t they afford to overpay everyone? Well, yes, they can. But it’s not in their best interest to do so, especially for a player like Jeter.

Cashman’s Dilemma

Yankees GM Brian Cashman is in a difficult position here. He can’t let Jeter sign elsewhere—it would be a PR nightmare. But he also can’t let Jeter dictate what his value to the franchise is.

If Cashman simply hands over a blank check to Jeter, then future aging Yankees stars will be inclined to demand the same. What happens when Alex Rodriguez asks for his third career nine-figure contract at the age of 41? What happens if Mariano Rivera or Jorge Posada decide they never want to retire and keep cashing paychecks into their 50s?

At some point the Yankees have to draw a line and stick to it. It may be the richest franchise in professional sports with bags of money bursting in every corner of Yankees Stadium, but that’s not an excuse to flush it down the drain by over-committing to someone like Jeter.

New York would be well served to make their stand now, rather than later. They could cut ties with Jeter and find a stopgap solution like Jason Bartlett for a few years, and then go hard after Hanley Ramirez when the Marlins superstar becomes a free agent. Or they could fold and give Jeter exactly what he wants.

Both decisions have dire consequences, but only one decision threatens to cripple the Yankees franchise.

Jeter’s accomplished enough in New York. It’s time for him to take his overrated talents elsewhere.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Some of these players are still All-Stars in their prime. Some of them left their better days behind them and are close to retirement. But the one thing that they have in common is that they are all on the trading block.

Here are 10 former All-Stars who could be wearing new uniforms by the start of next season.

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Dan Uggla was reportedly traded to the Atlanta Braves this afternoon for infielder Omar Infante and pitcher Mike Dunn.

It’s the third major trade in just a matter of days for the Florida Marlins, who also parted ways with pitcher Andrew Miller and outfielder Cameron Maybin earlier this week.

Uggla had no interest staying in a Marlins uniform after rejecting a four-year, $48 million contract extension last week, so it’s hard to fault Florida for trading their power-hitting second basemen. But is a career utility man and a rookie relief pitcher really fair value for one of the most productive offensive players in baseball?

Uggla, who can also play third and the outfield, has four consecutive seasons of at least 31 home runs. He’s a two-time All-Star and a Silver Slugger award winner in 2010. His career OPS is a pleasant .837 and he’s still only 30 years old. Those kinds of players don’t exactly grow on trees.

But players like Infante and Dunn do. 

Infante has never played in more than 142 games in his career and is typically used as a backup infielder all over the diamond. This past season with the Braves he finally got the chance to play on a near full-time basis and had an excellent year. He led the league in hitting for a time and finished with a .321 batting average. He also contributed a handful of doubles (15), home runs (8), and stolen bases (7). 

But just because the 28-year-old made his first All-Star team, doesn’t mean that he’s good enough to be an everyday second basemen (and certainly not one of Uggla’s caliber).

Dunn, meanwhile, came over to the Braves as part of the Javier Vazquez-Melky Cabrera deal and had a nice rookie season for Atlanta. In 25 games he had a 1.89 ERA and 27 strikeouts over 19 innings. Dunn looks like he could be a power lefty out of the bullpen for years to come. But 19 innings is hardly a sufficient sample size over which to trade one of your franchise players.

So why did the Marlins do it?

Well they had to trade Uggla for one. No sense in paying upwards of $10 million for a player who is guaranteed to sign elsewhere at the end of the season. But why sell so low?

The Marlins were desperate for relief help at the trade deadline and they’re still desperate for it now. Aside from closer Leo Nunez and set-up man Burke Badenhop, the Marlins relief corps had a difficult time finishing games last season. Out of 64 save opportunities, the Marlins only converted 39 of them for a 61 save percentage.

That’s horrifyingly bad. The Marlins finished with a 80-82 record, and 40 of those losses belonged to relievers. That’s the difference between a third place finish and a playoff berth. With Dunn aboard along with former Boston lefty Dustin Richardson and San Diego relievers Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica, the Marlins now have a solid staff to back up a promising rotation.

But how do they replace Uggla’s bat?

Nobody in that lineup, Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton included, has the pop to equal Uggla’s production. Infante is a nice player but he’s a far cry from an intimidating hitter (45 career home runs in nine seasons).

It’s reasonable to assume that the always cost-conscious Marlins were looking to shed payroll so that they could afford to pay arbitration to some of their rising stars, like Nunez and Gaby Sanchez. But those players won’t be making big dollars for a few more years.

The more likely explanation is that the Marlins grew tired of waiting for Miller (25) and Maybin (23) to emerge as superstars and cut their losses to allow other players from their bursting minor league system to come up.

This is a perfectly reasonable course of action for a team in the midst of a long-term rebuilding project. But small market teams like the Marlins can’t afford to sell off potential All-Star talents for below market value.

Had they held on to Miller, Maybin, and Uggla till after the winter meetings, they would have been almost guaranteed to get better offers for each of their players. Decisive action is not always the correct action.

Marlins fans can only hope that they won’t be trying to figure out ways to beat their three former players as they rise to stardom in new cities.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Carl Pavano is a fascinating example of the relationship between expectations and performance.

The 12-year major league veteran has pitched for 5 teams and earned over $47 million throughout the course of his career. There have been seasons in which he looked poised to become an ace (like in 2004 when he went 18-8 with a 3.00 ERA and made his first All-Star team with the Florida Marlins), and there have been seasons in which he looked like he might have to retire from baseball (like in 2008 when he only managed to pitch 34.1 innings with a 5.77 ERA while with the New York Yankees).

It’s like watching Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Is he an ace, or is he garbage?

The answer, it seems, is that Pavano’s performance largely depends upon which team he is pitching for. Take a look at his career ERA at his last three extended stops (ignoring the 125 innings he threw for Cleveland in 2009).

Florida (2002-2004): 3.64, 485.0 innings

New York (2005-2008): 5.00, 145.2 innings

Minnesota (2009-2010): 3.97, 294.2 innings

That seems like a rather unusual career path. Even in his five years as a young, up-and-coming pitcher for the Montreal Expos, Pavano’s ERA was still a respectable 4.83 over 452.2 innings. Why would a player who seemed on the cusp of stardom suddenly forget how to pitch once he got to New York?

The truth is that some players simply can’t handle the limelight and constant media attention that comes with playing in a big market city like New York, Boston, Chicago, or Los Angeles. There’s an intense amount of pressure to live up to expectations, which in Pavano’s case included a four-year, $38 million contract. Yankees’ fans expected Pavano to pitch like an ace and he crumbled, suffering countless injuries and setbacks (including missing the entire 2006 season) and managing only a meager nine wins in his four seasons in pinstripes.

Yet, once Pavano relocated to the small market haven of Minnesota, he reestablished himself as a major league pitcher. Now he’s a free agent again and on the look out for the last multi-year contract of his career.

Big market clubs better beware, though. Pavano doesn’t pitch so well when he’s sweating under the heat of all the cameras and lights focused on him.

What other players struggle to perform underneath the spotlight? Here’s a list of the top 10 riskiest free agents for big market teams.

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It sure didn’t take long for the hot stove to heat up.

Ken Rosental of FoxSports.com is speculating that the Boston Red Sox could pursue Dan Uggla after the Marlins’ second basemen rejected Florida’s four-year, $48 million contract extension. 

Uggla is coming off his fourth consecutive season of at least 30 home runs and owns a career OPS of .837. He can also play third base and the outfield. He’s an enticing option for any team looking for a big bat at one of those positions. The Red Sox certainly qualify with the expected loss of third basemen Adrian Beltre to free agency.

Could Boston go after Uggla? What other players might be on their radar?

Here’s a detailed look at Uggla and 10 more players that the Red Sox will make a very serious run at this offseason.

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