Kuzul

If you follow the Mets beat writers on Twitter like I do, you would know that a majority of the conversation tonight was not about how the Mets got knocked around like chumps against the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. 

No, tonight’s trending topic amongst the Mets media was on how 20-year-old Jenrry Mejia was blowing people away in his start in Buffalo tonight.  Mejia, who was in the Mets bullpen for the first few months of the 2010 season, went eight innings of 1-run ball, striking out nine. 

The Mets, most likely mistakenly, used Mejia in a bullpen role early on in the season.  It was hard to blame Mets manager Jerry Manuel at the time, because Mejia was one of the only pitchers actually throwing well in Spring Training. From the way John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, and even Johan Santana were throwing in camp, it looked like the Mets would need to go to the bullpen early and often once the season officially began, and they viewed Mejia as a flamethrower who could log them innings.  

But as time wore on, it was visible to everyone in and around the Mets organization that sitting in the bullpen and only pitching a couple of innings a week was not in Mejia’s or the Mets best long term interest.  The Mets sent him down to Double-A Binghamton to begin to stretch himself out and start games. 

Mejia went 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA in six starts in Binghamton, and was promoted for his first start at Triple-A Buffalo, which was tonight. 

Pat Misch failed to impress again tonight, giving up five runs in just three innings of work.  Misch’s next start would be Saturday afternoon at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs. 

How convenient that Saturday would also be Jenrry Mejia’s next day to pitch on regular rest.

After the game, Manuel told reporters, “That would be something that I would like to see,” when asked about the possibility of Mejia joining the big league club in time for Saturday’s game. 

Let’s look at the positives for Mejia coming up and starting Saturday.  For one, it would give a shot in the arm to a team that has looked like it is more than apathetic towards baseball since the end of June. 

If Mejia were to come up and start Saturday, he would most likely get five more starts after that day, if he were to remain with the big league club for the rest of the season.  It would give the Mets a decent sample to analyze if Mejia is good to slot into the rotation for 2011.  If you’re comfortable slotting Santana, Niese, Pelfrey, and R.A. Dickey into the rotation for next year right now, and you could also be sure Mejia is going to round out that five-man rotation, it would give the Mets front office one less thing to worry about in the offseason, and focus on tuning up the bullpen, bench, and lineup. 

There might also be a downfall to Mejia coming up right now.  Honestly, this is a lot of hoopla over one start.  A start in the minor leagues, I might add.  Based on that one start in Triple-A, can we really be all that sure he’s done with the over-throwing, fall-off-the-mound style we saw early this season?  Sure his ERA is impressive, but the kid skims 100 miles-per-hour with his fastball.  That’ll send a lot of minor-league players to the showers with nothing to show for it. 

It might not hurt to let Mejia pitch the remainder of the season with Triple-A Buffalo, just to reinforce what he’s learned.  This season is going nowhere fast over these last 31 games, so what’s the point in possibly rushing a kid who could help you win later?

Like you can see, it’s a coin toss.  There’s a good argument for both promoting him or keeping him where he is.  It just comes down to what’s best for the team in 2011.  And if you’re asking me right now, I think Mejia putting an audition in for a slot in the 2011 rotation over these last five weeks of the season is the best thing for 2011.  If he performs, you can rest easier at night from October until April, knowing the starting rotation is set.  If not, you know the Mets will go out looking for a starter… hopefully. 

But if you don’t bring Mejia up, you won’t know anything.

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Facing the Phillies at home in the second half over the past few seasons has not exactly been a walk in the park. It’s been more like a run. Lots and lots of runs for the Phillies.

The Astros sure didn’t make it look too hard this week. They held the Phillies to seven runs in four games, as they swept the four-game series from Philadelphia, which isn’t cruising as easily to the postseason as they did in 2009, when they won the National League East without much of a fight from the other four teams in the division. 

The fans let their displeasure be known, as according to the Phillies radio broadcast, a good amount of the fans in attendance on Thursday were already gone by the ninth inning of the 5-1 loss to the Astros.

This year the postseason is anything but a lock. The Phils sit a half-game back of San Francisco for the Wild Card, and three games back of the Braves for the National League East lead.

If the season ended today, Philadelphia wouldn’t make the playoffs, which would be absolutely shocking considering the main core of the team that went to the World Series last year and won it in 2008 has stayed intact, doing nothing more drastic than swapping Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay in the rotation.

Since the All-Star break, the Phillies, who are notorious for going on blazing-hot second-half runs, are 23-17. They’ve been solid, but certainly not spectacular, which has a lot to do with injuries to Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Shane Victorino, among others.  They’ve benefited from neither the Giants or Braves going on a run, but if the Phillies continue to play inconsistent baseball, they’ll miss the postseason for the first time since 2006.

“I don’t know what to say,” manager Charlie Manuel told the Phillies official website after the Phillies’ 5-1 loss on Thursday afternoon.  “All I can say is we have some guys, (Ryan) Howard and (Chase) Utley who need to get their timing.”

Utley returned on August 17th from thumb surgery and is hitting .235 with no home runs and three runs batted in since his return.  Howard returned from an ankle injury just six games ago, and has just three hits in 24 at-bats with no home runs and one run batted in. 

Life will not get easier for Philadelphia anytime soon.  They head to California to play three games each with the Padres, who just happen to have the best record in the National League, and the Dodgers, who just swept the Brewers in Milwaukee. 

Luckily for the Phillies, they still have six games remaining against the Braves, who have just refused to go on a big run to leave Philadelphia in the dust.  They do not face the Giants or Cardinals again, which means if it comes down to “Wild Card or bust” for the Phillies, they’ll have to take care of their own business, then look up at the out-of-town scoreboard and hope.

Rest assured, the playoffs are not a long shot for the Phillies.  But for the first time in a few years, there’s probably just as good a chance of Citizens Bank Park being empty in October as there is of it being jam-packed, just like it has been for the past 107 games.

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I’m not going to lie.  I mercilessly mocked the New York Mets for signing R.A. Dickey in the offseason.  To be honest, I was frustrated.  Other teams were out signing pitchers like John Lackey (Red Sox), or trading for others such as Cliff Lee (Mariners), and I was stuck having to deal with the Mets settling for a 35-year-old knuckleballer who had never seen any extended success in the major leagues. 

Hell, he wasn’t even supposed to be on the Mets 25-man roster, which got me even more ticked off.  Why are we trying to support our Binghamton/Buffalo starting rotations, when our major league rotation is in this type of shape?

Well, Dickey’s 2010 performance has shut me, and likely lots of other ignoramuses similar to myself, right up.  He’s gone 8-5, with an outstanding 2.43 ERA.  Hitters have rarely, if ever, looked comfortable against Dickey’s knuckleball, which he mixes in with a fastball.  FanGraphs.com has Dickey throwing his knuckleball 83.7 percent of the time, with his fastball coming just 16.3 percent of the time he throws a pitch. Dickey’s got a good thing going with his knuckler, he knows it, and he’s taking advantage of it.

Bad knuckleballs stay flat.  Good knuckleballs dance, and that’s what Dickey’s has done for a majority of the season. Hitters have frequently taken uncertain swings at these pitches, resulting in either softly hit balls, or swings and misses.

Dickey is arbitration eligible for 2011, which let’s be honest, is what needs to be the Mets’ priority right now. 

Should the Mets bring R.A. Dickey back?

I think the answer is quite obvious: of course.  But the extent of what you can actually expect out of Dickey needs to be evaluated. 

Yes, he has eaten up innings, allowed very few runs, and been the Mets’ most consistent starting pitcher this season.  That said, you can’t expect too much from a pitcher who has never won more than nine games in a season.  Jerry Manuel can’t put him near the top of the rotation and expect him to get into the double digits in the win column, and Omar Minaya can’t tell Manuel he needs to.   

Hopefully, the Mets can go out this offseason and steal a pitcher like Cliff Lee from the free agent market, so they can put Dickey in a less pressured slot in the rotation, such as the fourth or the fifth slot. 

If they can’t land another ace, they’d still be wise to go after a mid-level starter such as Ted Lilly or Vicente Padilla so they can still slot Dickey down low in the rotation. 

Hopefully, the Mets found something really special in Dickey.  Being a knuckleballer, his arm endures much less stress than a normal pitcher, so not only is he a strong candidate to go deep into games on a consistent basis, he’s a strong candidate to pitch into his 40’s, considering his knuckleball keeps hitters on their toes. 

Dickey has definitely been a nice piece for the Mets in 2010, and he has the potential to be in 2011.  But don’t be fooled, he can not be counted on as an X-factor.  If the Mets are going into next season relying on players such as R.A. Dickey to lead them to the promised land, don’t expect results much different from 2009 or this year.

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The All-Star break has historically been known as a nice three-day break where the media and fans can settle down and get a good look at where each team stands as they head into the unofficial second half of the season.

I’ve done just that, and am glad to share my predictions for what teams will be sporting Division Champion (and Wild Card Champion) t-shirts at the end of the season.

Obviously, some of these choices you may not agree with, and if you don’t, feel free to comment and we can get a debate going!

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David Wright’s career hit a low point in 2009. 

Sure, he hit .307, but he had a career low in Home Runs (10) and Runs Batted In (72) since his first full year in 2005.

Not to mention, the Mets won under 80 games for the first time since 2004, when David Wright broke into the big leagues. 

Coming off of that awful, putrid, and just plain unlucky 2009 season, the Mets started a promotional campaign claiming “We Believe in Comebacks.” 

Considering the terrible taste the Mets left in their fans’ mouths the past three seasons, not many people believed the Mets would be making any type of comeback this season.

However, the Mets currently sit ten games above .500, and they hold the National League Wild Card lead.  They’re also being led offensively by Wright, who’s hitting .301 with 14 homers (four more than all of last year) and 61 RBIs, which leads the National League.

Wright may have been happy getting a Comeback Player of the Year award this season the way last year went.  But so far, he’s looking like a front-runner in the NL Most Valuable Player race. 

At the moment, Wright is on pace to hit 30 homers and drive in 131 runs, all while maintaining a batting average above .300. 

Not only would Wright be the first Met to ever win the MVP award, but he would break the current string of Giants, Phillies, and Cardinals players winning the award.  A player from one of those teams has taken home the trophy every year since 2000.

The two main threats to Wright’s MVP candidacy are Ryan Howard of the Phillies and Albert Pujols of the Cardinals. 

Right now, Howard is batting .296, with 15 home runs and 55 RBIs.  He has a slight edge in home runs, and a slight disadvantage in batting average and runs batted in.  However, Howard has historically been a lower average hitter (he hasn’t hit above .280 since 2006), so that average should dip down as the season progresses.

Albert Pujols also is posting similar numbers, hitting .305 with 16 home runs and 52 RBIs.  Unlike Howard, Pujols’ career average is 27 points above his current one, so you can only expect Pujols’ numbers to increase as time goes on. 

The deciding factor for Wright and his MVP status may rest in the hands of the team.  If the Mets can win the Wild Card or even the division on the back of a big year from David Wright, he’s going to get a lot of votes. 

Pujols and Howard may turn out to have tremendous years again, but it won’t matter if the Mets can win and get into October baseball. 

Going into the season, experts said Wright would need to have a monster year for the Mets to have any chance to contend.  Well, Wright is having a monster year, and the Mets certainly have as good a chance as anyone in the National League. 

Under that rationale, Wright deserves to be rewarded.

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You know by now that there are two pretty appetizing starting pitching options on the Mets’ radar right now. 

Those two, obviously, are Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt.  Both are outstanding pitchers on underachieving teams that are trying to dump them in order to clear payroll or to acquire young talent. 

But which one is better for the Mets, both for now and down the road?

If this Mets team was a World Series or bust team, the decision would be pretty apparent: Cliff Lee.  He’s comparable to Johan Santana in how he can dominate a game, and would add a third lefty to go along Santana and Jon Niese, in a division with lefty sluggers such as Chase Utley, Jason Heyward, and Ryan Howard.  Add Mike Pelfrey to that mix, and you have a deadly starting rotation. 

But right now, the Mets are not a World Series or bust team.  They’re a team that has a legit shot at a postseason birth, both this year and in the years to come.  Remember, outside of Rod Barajas, all the important cogs in this Mets lineup and starting rotation will still be here. 

For a Mets team that could make some noise for a while, it makes more sense to go with a pitcher that gives the Mets more roster security.  That pitcher is Roy Oswalt. 

The thinking behind this is that the Mets would get more value for their dollar if they go after Oswalt, who is under contract until after the 2011 season with a team option for 2012.  He’d most likely cost fewer prospects than Lee. 

The biggest downfall on the Mariners ace is his contract is up after this year, making him a free agent.  It’s hard for the Mets to justify sending three or four good prospects to Seattle for only three guaranteed months of Cliff Lee.

Now, I can’t argue that Oswalt is a better pitcher than Lee.  Lee is more consistently dominant, and all of his numbers outside of strikeouts so far this season are better than Oswalt’s.  We’re talking WHIP, walks, ERA, BAA, everything.  The facts lie in the stats. 

That said, Oswalt is a better option than Lee.  While not up to par with Lee this season, the fireballer would still fall in very nicely behind Santana and Pelfrey. 

Oswalt is more likely to become a Met for two reasons: One, is that his contract extends past this season, and two, he would cost a reasonable amount less to acquire than Cliff Lee would.  It’s completely feasible the Mets could pass on Lee this summer, acquire Oswalt, and then court Lee in the offseason.

We’ll find out which way the Mets will go relatively soon. There are reports out of Seattle that Lee might make his final start for the Mariners as soon as Wednesday.  Oswalt has yet to rescind his request to be traded. 

The trading deadline is about five weeks away.  The Mets have two targets sited.  It’s just a matter of whether they play it safe or take a little gamble.

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Andy Pettitte has had a remarkable MLB career.  He’s won 12 or more games in 14 of his first 15 seasons, and is the only pitcher in major league history to have a record above .500 for all of his first 15 seasons.

Missing amongst those accomplishments is a Cy Young award.  This year may be Pettitte’s best chance at that coveted pitching award yet—and seemingly, no one is talking about it.

The 37-year-old left-hander is 8-1 with an ERA of 2.46.  His eight wins ranks second in the American League behind only David Price of the Rays, and his ERA ranks third behind Price and Doug Fister of the Mariners. 

The National League’s pitching has stolen the show this year.  Ubaldo Jimenez, Jaime Garcia, Mike Pelfrey, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay—the list just goes on and on, literally.

In the American League, Pettitte has been the epitome of consistent this year.  In his 12 starts, he’s given up more than two runs in just two of those starts.  He’s gone less than six innings just twice, and he’s pitched seven innings or more six times.

Without research, an average baseball fan would assume Pettitte’s W-L record would be enhanced because he pitches for an offensive powerhouse such as the Yankees.  Obviously, it helps (New York averages 5.67 runs in the games where Pettitte pitches).  But Andy’s minuscule ERA is the real reason for his success thus far. 

In fact, an ERA this low is quite uncommon for Pettitte.  His career ERA is nearly a run and a half higher at 3.87, and his ERA’s been higher than 4.00 in nine of his 15 seasons. 

It’s remarkable considering the park he pitches in more often than not is, to put it nicely, a joke.  Lazy fly balls routinely find their way into the right field stands.  While that little quirk has a way of leaving pitchers snake-bitten, it hasn’t affected Pettitte too much this year…yet.  

I bring up the Cy Young argument, because at his current pace, he will wind up with a record of 21-3.  If the ERA can stay decently low, he should be a shoe-in for his first career Cy Young award.  Which is such a cool story, considering he claims 2010 will be his last season . 

Cy Young or not, the real story will be whether Pettitte still decides to walk away after this year, if he continues to pitch like he has over the next three and a half months.  It’d be a shame to see a pitcher with more to give hang up his cleats, but we need to remember that those comments came before the season.

Andy’s heart may be back in Texas with his family, but his arm is definitely still in the game. 

It will be interesting to see which one he listens to. 

While Pettitte may be one of the more under-appreciated pitchers in the game today, he may be rewarded with one of the greatest honors a pitcher can receive at the end of the year.  That would definitely be hard to walk away from.

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Mike Stanton is on his way to the Florida Marlins.

No, not that Mike Stanton. 

It’s the 20-year-old Los Angeles native, an outfielder currently in the Florida Marlins farm system. 

Several outlets have recently announced that Florida would call up Stanton sometime next week.  Some say they might be rushing the young outfielder who can’t even legally consume alcohol yet, but who can blame them for rushing?  In 50 games this season at double-A Jacksonville, Stanton is hitting .299 with 20 HR and 51 RBI. 

While Mr. Stanton will be given a starting job in the outfield from day one, that also means that one of the current Marlins outfielders will be losing a very decent amount of playing time. 

Florida isn’t calling this kid up just to give him a taste; they plan on keeping him here. 

Florida’s current three starting outfielders are Chris Coghlan, Cameron Maybin, and Cody Ross, from left-to-right. 

In less than a week, one of those starting outfielders will be a fourth outfielder. 

So who’s the most likely candidate to take a seat while Stanton gets to show off his stuff?

Let’s look at each guy’s credentials.

Chris Coghlan

.254 BA, 3 HR, 15 RBI

He was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2009, leading the entire National League in hitting in the second half of last year. 

He certainly didn’t look like ROY material in the beginning of 2010, batting just .195 with 3 RBI in the first month of the season. 

He’s definitely straightened up since, though. 

In his past 26 games, he’s hitting .310 with 11 RBI, mostly coming out of the one or two-hole in the lineup.  He’s also been reliable in left field, recording five outfield assists and only one error on the season, thus far. 

Cameron Maybin

.227 BA, 5 HR, 19 RBI

Talk about a long way to fall. 

In 2005, Maybin was tabbed the third-best hitting prospect in the MLB draft.  Two years after being selected 10th overall by the Detroit Tigers, he was traded after the 2007 season, as one of the main cogs in a package that netted the Tigers Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins. 

Maybin has disappointed in his first three years in Florida thus far, hitting only .261 with 9 HR and 33 RBI in 110 games.  He’s still only 23, so his talent is still extremely attractive to keep in the lineup. 

Cody Ross

.299 BA, 5 HR, 30 RBI

The veteran of the three current outfielders, 29-year-old had a career year in 2009, nailing 24 homers with 90 RBI.  Ross has been a starting outfielder for Florida since 2008, which is seniority, which might give him an edge in keeping his job once Stanton finds his way to the bigs. 

The only downside the Marlins could see to keeping Ross in the starting outfield would be they see the potential of Coghlan and Maybin to be more valuable than the assets they already know they would get from Ross. 

Coghlan has proven he can hit big league pitching for an extended period of time, and that swing of Maybin that had scouts calling him one of the best players in the 2005 draft has to still be there somewhere… right?

Not an easy call for Marlins’ manager Fredi Gonzalez to make.  But it’s sure an easy call for me to make, because I don’t have to make the lineup card everyday. 

In my opinion, Maybin has struggled for a little too long to be ignored now.  Very few players come up to the majors, struggle mightily for the first few seasons as Maybin has done, and then have successful big league careers. 

Coghlan is a current .301 career hitter and maybe the best defensive outfielder on the team right now, so you’d be crazy to take him out. 

Ross is currently the right fielder, but can easily move over to center field to accommodate Mike Stanton, who is also a right fielder. 

These next couple of years will be Ross’ prime, and when he gave you decent power and RBI numbers last year, it’s not fair to sit him either. 

Maybin has performed the worst of the three, it’s just a fact.  It’s not in the stats, but as a nightly viewer of MLB highlights, I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen Maybin overrun or misjudge a fly ball in the outfield. 

When Stanton gets called up within the next few days, Maybin should be the one to take a seat. 

If he’s not, it’ll be a pretty big injustice, because the choice wouldn’t have been made due to baseball priorities. 

Sorry Cameron, but right now, you are the weakest link.

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The last time the New York Mets walked off the diamond at Citi Field, they’d just swept the Los Angeles Dodgers to complete a 9-1 homestand for the third time in franchise history. The other two times it happened: 1969 and 1988—pretty special years in Amazin’ history.

One Johan Santana meltdown, one Mike Pelfrey implosion, and two walk-off home runs given up later, the Mets can’t wait to get back into Flushing for their first home game since April 28.

This hasn’t been so much the case over the past few years, as  with all of the pressure from the media and the fans for the Mets to live up to, they’ve quite often looked at road trips as a way to get away from all of the hoopla.

But maybe all the in-your-face attention is what makes this team go. 

If you can’t seem to recall the last time the Mets began a homestand, don’t fret.  Because the outlook on the team has taken a complete 180-degree turn since that beautiful Monday, April 19, day.

At the time, there was talk that if the Mets had continued on their then 4-8 trend, manager Jerry Manuel could have been shown the door by the end of the homestand. 

That same day, the Mets promoted semi-phenom first baseman Ike Davis. It created quite a buzz over the New York airwaves for the day, partially due to the fact that many believed he should have been awarded the job after his strong spring training performance, but also due to the fact that a majority of Mets fans just didn’t want to see Mike Jacobs again. Ever.

It’s also when the Mets’ 9-1—seemingly improbable at the time—run began. And there’s been varying opinions about how and why the Mets went on the run that, for the time being, saved their season, and kept their recent 2-4 skid from being such a black eye. 

Some say that the media in all the players’ faces talking about how their manager, who’d stuck with them through thick and thin, would be gone if their play didn’t improve.

Others say it’s the presence of an exciting rookie like an Ike Davis, who gives the Mets’ lineup a little more depth, as the reason, while others say that Jose Reyes’ return and placement in the No. 3 slot in the batting order is helping extend the lineup, and therefore helping the team. 

It’s probably a combination of all three of those factors, but the biggest change that I’ve seen in this Mets team is the willingness to hit the gaps in the cavernous outfield at Citi. They realize that they can’t go up there and try to jack one out, because that’s just not how the ballpark plays. 

So they try to line balls into the gaps, knowing there’s a good chance of at least a two-base hit.

The most noticeable approaches have been from David Wright and Ike Davis. Both batters had a knack for driving the ball into the gaps the other way during the last homestand, which can be a deadly weapon with runners on base. 

The large dimensions of the Mets’ new home field got into their heads a little bit last year, and they needed to answer a lot of questions about during the offseason, but now it looks like they’re using what they know to their advantage, and that’s a great sign. 

Whether the Mets’ last homestand was just a flash in the pan, or a real sign that they are learning to play at Citi will be determined in their next six-game homestand, where they will face the San Francisco Giants and the Washington Nationals. 

If the Mets can pull out a 4-2, or 5-1 record in this homestand, the good feelings about what they’ve learned to win at home on a consistent basis will reign supreme for a while longer. 

If they can’t, the same pessimism that we heard on April 19 will return, because in everyone’s minds, that homestand will have just been a fluke.

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