Kuzul

It’s official: Carl Pavano will remain with the Minnesota Twins for now after tonight signing a two-year contract worth $16.5 million.

This move was crucial for the Twins. The Twins, winners of the American League Central in 2010, would have had their playoff hopes significantly decreased had Pavano signed elsewhere for 2011. In 2010, the Twins ranked 16th overall in ERA of starting pitchers with a 4.17 ERA. Pavano was very successful in 2010, posting a 17-11 record to go along with a 3.75 ERA.

It was speculated that the Twins fifth starter in 2011 assuming Pavano would not return would be either Nick Blackburn or Kevin Slowey. In 2010, Blackburn had a 5.42 ERA, while Slowey’s was 4.45. Now that Pavano’s return is official, the Twins will be able to remove one of these starters from their rotation, eliminating a weakness.

With Pavano, the Twins rotation has to be considered among the deepest in the American League. As of now, it looks to be composed of Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Brian Duensing and either Kevin Slowey or Nick Blackburn. Liriano is a legitimate ace, and every one of the Twins starters is strong relative to his spot in the rotation. 

In one and a half seasons with the Twins, Pavano has a 22-15 record with a 3.97 ERA. He has helped the Twins reach the playoffs now two seasons in a row, though their success has been limited in October. The Twins’ decision to go out and re-sign Pavano shows that the Twins are still the head of the American League Central. Now that Pavano is officially back, coupled with the return of Justin Morneau, the Twins have to be considered legitimate threats to reach the World Series in 2011.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

This year’s crop of first basemen is very top-heavy.

After the top five are off the board, there is a lack of hitters who can hit for both average and power. In fact, in standard 10-team rotisserie leagues this season, there are only 11 first basemen I would be content with as my starter.

There are many players who have potential to develop into elite hitters, namely Matt LaPorta and Kila Ka’aihue. However, entering this year’s draft, I would advise drafting a first baseman early due to the lack of depth between the sixth- and 15th-ranked players. 

Before releasing my first set of rankings for the top 30 first basemen for 2011, I would like to clear up who qualifies as a first baseman in these rankings. For the purposes of this article, first basemen are players who first base is their most valuable position. Therefore, I will not have Kevin Youkilis on this list because I consider him more valuable at third base. 

On to the rankings! Feel free to comment below on players you believe I may have overrated or underrated. (Compliments accepted as well.)

Tier One: The Elite

(Name, Team, 2011 Projection)

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals: .323/44/121/10/117

There should honestly be no debate about this. While Pujols may not always finish as the No. 1 player in the league, he is consistently a top-10 player and it is his consistency that makes him so appealing at No. 1. Cabrera will certainly challenge him throughout the entire season, though I still feel more comfortable with Pujols on my team.

2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers: .327/36/118/2/101

Cabrera is without a doubt one of the best fantasy baseball players entering 2011; he has actually been very consistent throughout his career, hitting 33-plus home runs in every year since 2004 except for 2006. Cabrera has the ability to carry your team all the way through the season; there was not a month in 2011 during which Cabrera hit fewer than five home runs.

3. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds: .317/35/113/9/99

Votto has now hit .322-plus in two straight seasons, and while his 37 home runs were not expected in 2011, they are reachable for Votto again in 2011. Minus April, Votto hit .306-plus with five-plus home runs in every month in 2011, a very impressive feat. The key to Votto in 2011 is where he will be drafted. I would argue that he is fair value around ten to 12, so if he is being taken earlier, he is actually a player I would avoid.

4. Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox: .318/33/127/1/104

According to ESPN’s Player Rater, Gonzalez was the No. 5 first baseman in 2010. If you consider that he was hitting in a much more difficult field than Fenway Park, and also that his support for the Padres offense was minuscule compared to what he will receive in Boston, Gonzalez is a threat to pass Votto this season. I would not be surprised to see Gonzalez finish this season top 10 overall. 

5. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees: .282/35/112/1/105

To expect Teixeira to repeat his 2010 .256 batting average in 2011 would be a little ridiculous, though do not expect him to repeat his .290-plus batting averages in the past. Yankee fans will argue that Teixeira had a poor start, which will not happen again in 2011. Consider this, though: Teixeira hit only .259 in the second half of 2010. He’ll be very good, elite even, though he is not a threat for top-three consideration anymore.

Tier Two: The Rest of the Legitimate Standard League Starters

6. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins: .310/30/103/0/82

Morneau’s 2010 injury should have no effect on his 2011 production. In the 81 games he was healthy enough to play in, Morneau hit .345 with 18 home runs. Those are not stats to ignore; if he had continued at that rate, Morneau would have been a top-five first baseman, hands down, this season.

7. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies: .274/37/123/1/92

Fielder is on my lists of players to avoid this season. For an explanation on why, click here. 

8. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers: .271/41/103/2/101

Fielder had a down year in 2010, hitting only .261 with 32 home runs. Therefore, I am taking a conservative approach with him this season in terms of batting average. He is still Prince Fielder, the guy who hit 46-plus home runs twice since 2007. 

9. Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels: .298/29/106/1/88

Morales is very similar to Morneau in my eyes entering 2011. He was very productive in the games he playing in before injuring himself, hitting .290 with 11 home runs in just 51 games. Morales’ injury was to the leg, thus I do not expect any sort of decline in power in 2011. 

10. Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox: .253/42/108/1/90

Dunn in one of the most consistent power hitters in the recent history of the MLB. He is moving to the easiest park to hit home runs in this year. That’s enough for me to draft him, and it should be for you.  

11. Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals: .305/17/80/0/75

He is a consistent hitter, though he is not somebody who will carry your team in 2011, or ever likely. If you are looking for somebody to hit stabilize your team’s batting average while not killing you in power, Butler is your guy. Butler has now hit over .300 in two straight seasons along with 15-plus home runs in each of the two. 

Tier Three: Should Be Rostered

12. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox: .276/31/98/1/80

13. Carlos Pena, Chicago Cubs: .236/35/96/4/76

14. Adam Lind*, Toronto Blue Jays: .271/27/83/0/74

15. Aubrey Huff, San Francisco Giants: .280/23/85/3/87

16. Derek Lee, Baltimore Orioles: .273/25/86/2/77

17. Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins: .274/23/89/8/77

His potential to steal bases is appealing, especially in deep leagues or NL-only leagues where stolen bases are limited in abundance. 

18. Kila Ka’aihue, Kansas City Royals: .262/27/98/2/71

To find out why Ka’aihue is poised for a breakout year, click here.

19. Matt LaPorta, Cleveland Indians: .261/20/76/1/70

20. Adam LaRoche, Washington Nationals

21. Ike Davis, New York Mets: .282/22/79/2/78

22. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves: .271/17/82/2/76

23. Mitch Moreland, Texas Rangers: .274/16/72/3/68

24. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins: .278/17/84/6/78

25. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers: .274/12/84/9/72

Tier Four: Scraping the Barrel

26. Wilson Betemit, Kansas City Royals: .254/20/78/1/67

27. Brett Wallace, Houston Astros: .265/18/71/0/66

28. Dan Johnson, Tampa Bay Rays: .236/21/74/0/61

29. Juan Miranda, Arizona Diamondbacks: .262/18/80/1/69

30. Justin Smoak, Seattle Mariners: .254/16/62/1/58

Thanks for reading, I’d love to hear your opinions and thoughts about this list.

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It happens every year. One team has unreasonably high expectations for their team, signs a couple of free agents, and when they fail to meet their goals, they become sellers at the trade deadline.

Need an example? How about last year’s Seattle Mariners. In theory, Cliff Lee would have been great if they had an offense. However, their lack of success forced them to trade Lee to the Rangers, a team better suited for Lee.

On the other side, there are always buyers at the trade deadline. Maybe a team doesn’t expect to be in playoff contention in July, however now that they are, they need one more player to piece together the puzzle and put them over the edge.

A good example is the Milwaukee Brewers of 2008. It was their acquisition of CC Sabathia that helped them reach the playoffs through the wild card. 

Another common way for players to switch teams midseason is by under performing. By August, if a team is not content with the way one of their players is playing, they have to option to put him on waivers. 

An example of this is the Alex Rios scenario of 2009. The Blue Jays, unhappy with Rios, placed Rios on waivers, where the White Sox picked him up. His .199 batting average in 2009 with the White Sox probably made the Blue Jays happy they let him go.

There are many other reasons that a player is moved during the season—  these are just the main ones. In this article, I will speculate as to which players I believe will be moved in 2011.

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As we near Spring Training, it’s about time to start making predictions and forming projections for each team. While there are still many free agents on the market, a sufficient amount have been signed in order to rank each team’s offense. 

In ranking the league’s best offenses, there are many aspects being taken into consideration.

The ability to get on base is essential. You can only have so many Mark Reynolds or Adam Dunn’s on your team before you start to lose efficiency.

However, the second major component is the ability to drive in runs. Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Juan Pierre are all great, but without some pop in the lineup, they are meaningless to an extent.

Finally, depth is a major contributor to the success an offense can achieve. If (when) Carlos Beltran gets hurt, who do the Mets have to back him up? He may play the majority of the games, but the other 30 odd games count just as much. 

With that, I’ll reveal my power rankings for the all 30 Major League Baseball teams. While the batting order may be incorrect, the players on each lineup are not. I bet you can guess number 30…

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In a year in which nine-figure deals became unsurprising to hear in breaking news columns and contract extensions were given out like they were samples of cheese at a grocery store, you would think the reigning National League Most Valuable Player award winner would receive more than $38 million over three years, wouldn’t you?

Recently, Ryan Howard, first baseman of the Phillies, signed a 5 year, $125 million extension with the Phillies at age 31. Don’t you think Joey Votto, 27 years old, should be rewarded as well as Howard was? Granted, Howard’s contract was on the absurd side, yet even still, it seems like Cincinnati got away with this one. 

If we do a comparison of Joey Votto’s statistics versus those of Ryan Howard between the years 2008-2010, here is what we get:

Votto: .314 Batting Average, 86 Home Runs, 281 Runs Batted In, 27 Stolen Bases, 257 Runs

Howard: .269 Batting Average, 124 Home Runs, 395 Runs Batted In, 10 Stolen Bases, 297 Runs

If you take into account the power differential and the batting average differential, the two are very comparable.

However, it is clear that Votto is a more efficient fielder based on UZR (1.6 versus -12.6 in 2010). Also, Votto has a higher WAR (Wins Above Replacement) than Howard. In the last three years, the sum of Votto’s WARs has been 16.0, compared to Howard’s 9.9. 

In conclusion, Votto should have received a contract similar to that of Ryan Howard. Even if you were to toss Howard’s contract out the window and call it a fluke, there are many other comparisons you can make to display that Votto got the short end of the stick in this deal. 

This off-season, Adam Dunn earned a $56 million contract over four years. Aubrey Huff signed for two years at $11 million per year. In other positions, Jayson Werth signed a seven-year contract worth $126 million and Derek Jeter signed a three-year deal totaling $51 million. 

Joey Votto is more talented than all of those players, and he has age on his side. So why did he only get three years worth $38 million?

Alex Rodriguez had no problem cashing in, neither did Mark Teixeira.

Troy Tulowitzki just signed an extension that will pay him $157.75 million over the next ten years. 

Looking at Votto’s deal, there are a few upsides for Votto. Three years down the road, Votto should be around his prime or slightly past it, but still producing MVP-esque numbers. At that point, he will be able to demand a huge nine-figure contract that will have him earning eight figures until he’s around 37.

So it does make sense for Votto in some regard, but you still have to pat the Reds on the back for keeping their top player at a good price relative to other deals around the league. 

This deal shows that the Reds are planning to win now, and they do not plan on throwing their fantastic 2010 finish out as a fluke. They are telling the league that they are ready to compete. This off-season, they have also added Edgar Renteria and Jeremy Hermida at low costs to help with any depth issues.

Given their young talent, the Reds have to be considered among the favorites in the National League. 

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In 2010, the Red Sox missed out on the postseason in large part due to its woeful bullpen. The relievers in 2010 posted a miserable 4.24 earned run average, which was good for 23rd in the MLB. The 19-23 record they produced played a major role in the Red Sox’s failure to reach the playoffs. 

However, this winter, Boston has made the necessary transactions in order for its bullpen to be among the best in the league. Sure, it would have been nice to have added Rafael Soriano to their staff, however, its free agent signings and re-signings have been sufficient. 

In this article, I’ll provide an outlook the Red Sox’s most significant relievers, and why they will succeed in 2011.

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The team a pitcher plays for has a major role in how well the pitcher performs, especially on a fantasy baseball level. There are many examples of pitchers who thrived on one team; however, a switch to the American League exposed their weakness or their offense did not provide any support which limited the pitcher’s win total.

Javier Vazquez, for example, had a Cy Young-caliber year in Atlanta in 2009; however, in 2010, when he moved to New York, he was shelled by the much more dangerous American League East lineups. 

The park a pitcher plays in is the first, and arguably most influential way in which the team a pitcher plays for can affect one’s stats. In a hitters park such as the Padres’ Petco Park, a pitcher has a huge advantage over somebody pitching in the Rockies’ Coors Field. 

Another way that a pitcher’s team can influence his stats is the team’s offense. Pitching for the Red Sox or the Yankees is much more conducive to winning than pitching for the Mariners or Pirates. 

Finally, the team a pitcher is on affects the stats he puts up, because the team a pitcher plays on affects the offenses he has to pitch against. A classic example of this is the switch from the American League to the National League. Pitching against National League teams historically has led to more impressive statistics than pitching against American League teams. 

Let’s take a look at three pitchers who switched teams this offseason and examine how it is going to affect their production in 2011. 

Zack Greinke, 2010 Statistics: 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 181 Strikeouts, 0 Saves

The 2009 American League Cy Young winner struggled in a big way in 2010. A losing record and an ERA above four were not characteristics fantasy baseball owners were looking for when they drafted him 25.7 overall in ESPN standard leagues in 2010. Motivational issues and a poor surrounding cast were major issues for Greinke in 2010.

Will a change in scenery help Greinke restore his Cy Young potential?

In terms of ballparks, Greinke is actually moving to a more difficult park to pitch in. Miller Park (Brewers) is ranked sixth in ease of home run hitting, whereas Kaufman Stadium (Royals) ranks 19th. The two rank similarly in overall runs scored, though the difference in proneness of home runs could become a problem for Greinke. 

On the bright side, the switch to the National League Central should help Greinke’s production greatly. The average number of runs scored by American League Central teams in 2010 excluding the Royals was 732.5. That number for National League Central teams excluding the Brewers was 681.8. That’s a difference of .313 runs per game. Keep in mind though, these are not all the teams Greinke will be facing, they are just the teams in his division whom he will face most frequently. 

As for the offense Greinke will be playing with versus the one he left, he will again improve. While the Royals ranked 20th in runs scored with 676, the Brewers ranked 12th with 750, a difference of .457 runs per game. It’s not going to immediately turn Greinke into a win machine, but it will help his record a good deal. 

Overall, Greinke switch to the National League Central should be viewed as a good move, but it does not make him a Cy Young threat; to return to that level, he will have to improve his own pitching. 

2011 Zack Greinke Projections: 15-8, 3.40 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 186 Strikeouts, 0 Saves

Aaron Harang, 2010 Statistics: 6-7, 5.32 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 82 Strikeouts, 0 Saves

Harang could be a huge sleeper in 2010. He signed a one-year contract with the San Diego Padres this winter, and this subtle switch should have a huge impact on his production. In Cincinnatti, Harang had two elite seasons, 2006 and 2007, which he looks to reproduce in 2011. 

Let’s again begin with the switch in ballparks. Harang will be going from a relatively difficult pitchers’ park in the Great American Ball Park to one of the easiest in Petco Park. The Great American Ball Park ranked 12th in runs scored against and eighth in home runs against (where the lower the rank, the more difficult for pitchers). On the contrary, Petco Park ranked 26th in runs scored against and 22nd in home runs against. This is not a small difference, but it will certainly help Harang get his career back on track.

As for the difference in difficulty the teams he will be facing, he will face more difficult opponents, as National League West Teams excluding the Padres average .19 more runs per game than National League Central teams excluding the Padres. 

Another factor against Harang is that his team’s offense is significantly worse than it was in 2010. The Reds score .77 more runs per game than the Padres.

However, on the defensive side of the game, the Padres were actually better than the Reds in 2010. The Padres’ UZR was 50.0, while the Reds was 44.8. Both were good for top four in the majors, however every bit helps in the MLB. 

A final note about Harang is that his numbers were partially affected by the fact that he was injured during part of 2010, thus his win total and strikeout total are not reflective of his efficiency. 

Overall, Harang should see a much more productive season in 2011 than 2010. While his win percentage may not increase, the transition to Petco Park combined with the fact that Harang should come into 2011 more prepared after his down 2010 should boost Harang’s overall numbers. 

2011 Aaron Harang Projections: 10-10, 4.34 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 152 Strikeouts, 0 Saves

Matt Garza, 2010 Statistics: 15-10, 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 150 Strikeouts, 0 Saves

Garza had a relatively productive 2010, especially if you take into account the difficulty in pitching against for an American League East team. 

Garza’s ERA against American League East teams in 2010 was 4.81, which is not surprising given that the Yankees and Red Sox were 1-2 in runs scored in 2010, with the Jays trailing not far behind. Moving to one of the weaker hitting divisions in the MLB should be a huge boost for Garza as the difference in runs scored by American League East teams versus National League Central teams per game was .41. 

Of course, the Rays were a much better hitting team than the Cubs, as they scored .73 more runs per game in 2010. Though, Rays power hitter Carlos Pena will be moving with Garza to the Cubs, which may boost the Cubs’ offense.

The only really significant downside of Garza’s move is the switch from the easiest pitchers’ park in the game to one of the hardest. Tropicana Field ranked 30th in runs scored against and 17th in home runs allowed, whereas Wrigley Field ranked third in runs scored against and ninth in home runs allowed. 

While this transition of ballparks in significant, it does not make up for the relief Garza will receive in leaving the American League East.

2011 Matt Garza Projections: 14-11, 3.77 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 172 Strikeouts, 0 Saves

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The 2010-2011 MLB off season was one for the books. Whether it was news regarding Carl Crawford’s free agency or whether or not Zach Greinke would be traded, there was never a dull moment this winter for baseball fans. Very few teams remain in the same position as they were in November.

While there are still a handful of significant free agents still on the market such as Carl Pavano and Vladimir Guerrero, it is time to reflect on the unfolding of this winter. Which deals were the most significant? Who were the winners? Who is going to regret their aggressive behavior down the road?

In this article, I will examine the 25 most significant transactions from free agent signings to trades to re-signings. These transactions are not ranked based on how good the player(s) involved were, but how much the transaction will affect the team’s outcome. 

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This year’s list of catcher’s was especially difficult to rank, and I’m sure I’ll switch some of these players over the course of the next few months. Regardless, this is have currently is as accurate as any.

There are some ranks that might surprise you; however, I can assure you that I have looked more than enough statistics to justify each rank.

This year is a turning point as far as catching goes; young studs such as Buster Posey and Carlos Santana will be turning the corner while the older, well-known guys such as AJ Pierzynski will start heading down the painful road of decline. With that, I present my list of the top 40 catchers for the 2011 MLB season.

These players are listed in the order that I would draft them; therefore, factors such as injury risk or youth might play a role in their rankings. So don’t be surprised to see a player with better projections below somebody with worse projections.

Top 10

1. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants – .313/22/81/1/70

Let it sink in for a moment: Buster Posey will be the number one catcher in 2010. I refuse to put Joe Mauer here because that is the popular pick or that he hit 28 home runs in 2009. Posey has incredible potential, and he dominated the league as a rookie. Watch out.

2. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins – .331/11/82/2/92

Mauer is a vastly overrated player. Face it: 2009 was a fluke. Mauer is one of the best pure hitters in the game. Unfortunately for him, average is only one-fifth of what counts in standard leagues.

3. Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers – .292/24/85/1/73

I considered Martinez at two, but average is what ultimately caused me to rank him at three. Moving from Fenway should affect him a little bit and he leaves the second best offense in the league (though Detroit holds its own pretty well). 

4. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves – .283/22/84/5/61

McCann’s always been good in this league. He wasn’t phenomenal last season, but he was still able to finish fourth on ESPN’s Player Rater in a down year.

5. Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs – .276/23/84/1/66

Any doubts about Soto because of his poor 2009 season vanished after his solid 2010 campaign. He has great potential to finish fifth, whether he acts on this potential is the real question though.

6. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees – .271/19/79/2/71

He still qualifies as a catcher, and his value goes up as he moves to the DH spot. He’s nearing the end, but the end isn’t 2011. Draft Posada with confidence.

7. Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians – .265/17/62/6/79

Santana has the potential to be great; if he can bring his average up, I can see a top five finish for him. Obviously, I don’t see him hitting for great average though. A .265 average is conservative, as I am not ready to go all in on Santana.

8. Mike Napoli, Los Angeles Angels – .251/22/63/5/65

Like Posada, Napoli will likely not play much catcher, though he does still qualify as one. His average was poor last season, yet he still managed to finish in the top 10 by most standards. His power is his saving grace, and until its gone he will remain this high. 

9. Kurt Suzuki, Oakland Athletics – .269/15/74/5/67

Suzuki was one of my favorite catchers going into 2010 and he really disappointed. His power was there though, and I see his average rising back to his norm. Still one of my favorite catchers as he has potential to steal ten bases on top of his solid power.

10. Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles – .272/14/70/0/47

Many people would have Wieters up much higher, maybe even sixth, but I can’t bring myself to project him to hit above .275. Not mention the lack of power he displayed in 2010. Some of it was part of the adjustment period, some of it was hype. He’s definitely top ten material though. 

The Rest

11. Miguel Montero – .268/14/64/0/54

12. John Buck – .255/15/54/0/46

13. Chris Iannetta – .263/18/62/1/42

14. Ryan Doumit – .259/16/59/3/50

15. JP Arencibia – .268/16/52/0/51

He has power potential dripping out of his bat. If he gets sufficient playing time, a top ten finish is not out of the question. I wouldn’t draft him as your No. 1 catcher, though. 

16. AJ Pierzinski – .268/11/50/2/46

17. Miguel Olivo – .251/15/50/7/51

18. Alex Avila – .258/15/50/1/41

19. Yadier Molina – .281/8/60/9/36

20. Rod Barajas – .229/18/53/0/44

2010 vs. righties: .256 14/40. Barajas is a very, very useful player due to his great splits versus righties. It might be smart to draft him and play him by matchups.

21. Jon Jaso – .279/9/56/2/59

His lack of power and speed kill him. He’s a solid guy as a last resort, as he will not hurt your average. 

22. Carlos Ruiz – .276/8/57/2/46

23. Yorvit Torrealba – .261/9/50/3/38

24. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – .246/12/60/0/71

He’d be much higher if Varitek was not eating away at his playing time. He has a bright future down the road, but his 2011 season will probably only help AL-only owners. 

25. Jason Varitek – .238/15/36/0/39

26. Russell Martin – .258/7/36/11/61

Might surprise some people that Martin is so low. He obviously has top 15 potential, though he is a bit risky for my taste especially with Montero ready to be called up at any moment. 

27. Ivan Rodriguez – .270/5/55/4/42

28. Josh Thole – .280/5/30/2/28

29. Ramon Hernandez – .252/10/51/1/37

He was a top 15 guy last season, so his 29 ranking might come as a surprise. But he is 34 years old and his BABIP rose .058 points last season, so his .297 average is nearly impossible for him to maintain. 

30. Nick Hendley – .252/9/48/2/37

31. Ronny Paulino – .263/6/30/1/27

32. Jonathan Lucroy – .260/6/30/4/36

33. Kelly Shoppach – .243/8/21/0/78

34. Jason Kendall – .245/2/40/9/38

35. Jason Castro – .245/6/34/2/49

36. Jose Molina – .231/6/32/1/29

37. Taylor Teagarden – .223/9/25/0/20

38. Wil Nieves – .240/5/22/0/17

39. Chris Snyder – .227/7/30/0/22

40. Dioner Navarro – .231/4/18/1/20

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

If you are a fantasy baseball avid, over the next few weeks leading up to your draft, you will likely read more “Top Ten Sleepers for 2011” or “Under the Radar Players to Watch Out For This Year” articles than ‘Useful Financial Advice’ or ‘Finance for Dummies’ articles Brian Cashman or Al Davis will read. Although, on that note, everyone in America would be well-served to read some of those articles. Anyway…sleepers. What are they? What does the term sleeper mean? How young or inexperienced does a player have to be to be considered a sleeper? Well, let me answer those questions:

My unofficial, purely opinionated, but still useful definition of sleeper eligibility: If 30 percent or fewer of your league has this player on their sleeper radar, he can be considered a sleeper. If any more have him on their lists, he’s immediately ineligible.

To sum it up, Matt LaPorta is not a sleeper this year…neither is Andrew McCutchen…If LaPorta is on your list of sleepers, you probably don’t look deep enough into rosters to find real sleepers. If Miguel Cabrera is on your list of sleepers, this would be a good time for you to save yourself some frustration in 2011 by quitting your league.

Some people will contend that anyone can be a sleeper. For example, let’s take Dustin Pedroia. Everyone knows him and everyone knows he will be good. However, you think he’ll be the top hitter overall in 2011. (This is a hypothetical situation, but if you are reading this paragraph and thinking to yourself: “Oh hey, here’s someone else who thinks Pedroia will be the best hitter in 2011”, see my advice above for people with Miguel Cabrera on their sleeper lists.) Some people will say that this makes Pedroia a sleeper in your mind. In other words, they believe a sleeper to be someone who they think will exceed the general public’s projection. Well, those players are more accurately called “underrated players.” They are well known, thus they are not players that will slip passed anyone’s radar and fall into your lap.

Now that we have established the definition of sleeper eligibility (If not, that was probably a waste of four paragraphs), let’s examine what flags to look for when choosing your sleepers. First, and most importantly, is potential. You can have all the playing time, surrounding hitters, etc., but if you don’t have potential you’ll just end up like Skip Schumaker. (In fairness to Skip, he was a useful second baseman in many 30 team NL only leagues).

Second flag: playing time. There is nothing more frustrating than a player dripping with potential held back by playing time…on second thought, there are actually a lot of things more frustrating. Regardless, playing time is key. Playing time can come in many ways; through injury, trades, or simply earning a starting spot.

Third flag: surrounding players. You have to feel bad for Rajai Davis; he scored merely 66 runs despite hitting .284 and stealing 50 bases. (He can thank his “power hitters” who were supposed to drive him in. That’s you Jack Cust and Kevin Kouzmanoff. On second thought, blame whoever believed those two would drive anyone in and refused to trade for somebody who could drive in runs). There are other flags to look for, however these are the three major flags to be aware of. Now, let’s move on to the sleepers at last.

(Drum roll, suspenseful music, anything else that would stimulate a dramatic aura)

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