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MLB Free Agency 2014: Biggest Winners and Losers of Week 3

It’s been a busy week in MLB free agency, with several veteran pitchers and position players receiving multi-year deals. Even the latest rumors about some top free agents have been juicy.

Every free-agent update reverberates around the league, resulting in numerous winners and losers.

Contracts signed so early in free agency give us a better idea of what comparable players should expect to receive. Also, as the free-agent crop grows thinner, front offices are forced to reluctantly abandon their preconceived strategies.

Picking up from where Bleacher Report’s Adam Wells left off, we’ve hand-picked the biggest beneficiaries and victims of the Nov. 15-21 action.

 

*Stats provided by Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise specified.

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MLB Teams That Most Desperately Need Hitting Help This Offseason

Great pitching ultimately prevails in the MLB postseason, but qualifying for October baseball in the first place requires a formidable offense.

Five teams in particular ought to be busy this winter pursuing established hitters through trades and free agency as they aspire to remain relevant in 2014. 

We aren’t necessarily alluding to baseball’s bottom-dwellers. The Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros and Miami Marlins, for example, have no sense of urgency to improve immediately. They’re amid the rebuilding process and not expected to achieve contender status until later this decade.

Rather, the following teams are those with the most to gain or lose in their offensive searches. Entering spring training devoid of substantial acquisitions would doom them to finish below the .500 mark, while addressing glaring weaknesses could elevate them into the championship hunt.

 

*All stats provided by Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise specified.

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Where Jeff Samardzija Ranks Among Top MLB Pitching Trade Candidates

It’s looking increasingly likely that Jeff Samardzija won’t stick around through the Chicago Cubs’ rebuilding, as Chicago Now’s Tom Loxas has added the Pittsburgh Pirates to his list of suitors.

Although he’s ridiculously talented, Samardzija is not necessarily the best pitcher on the trading block. (Spoiler alert: he definitely isn’t.) The Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays and Washington Nationals all have interest in him, according to Loxas, but there are a handful of other top-of-the-rotation options on the market.

This article features Cy Young Award winners, Rookie of the Year finalists and world champions, along with the insider rumors that link each of them to new teams.

 

*All stats provided by Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise specified.

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Updating Status, Team Interest for Top MLB Free Agents Coming Back from Injuries

Injuries always negatively affect a player’s earning potential heading into MLB free agency, but they don’t necessarily make him any less popular among needy teams.

The following veterans all have track records of success that practically ensure that they’ll receive major league deals this winter.

Most of these former All-Stars stumbled onto the open market following significant surgeries and haven’t had the opportunity to prove that they’ve regained their previous forms. Regardless, we expect them to receive ample attention as low-risk, high-reward options.

Read on for the latest developments in their rehabs and for the specific suitors who have been linked to them thus far.

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Is Brayan Pena Signing Final Clue to Aroldis Chapman Moving into Reds’ Rotation?

By signing catcher Brayan Pena to a two-year deal—as reported by Mark Sheldon of MLB.com—the Cincinnati Reds have dropped a not-so-subtle hint that All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman is moving into their 2014 starting rotation.

A longtime backup who broke into the majors with the Atlanta Braves, Pena batted .297/.315/.397 with the Detroit Tigers last summer. More importantly, he maintained that while receiving a career-high 243 plate appearances. In his career, the 31-year-old has thrown out would-be base stealers at a better-than-average rate (28.5 percent).

It’s clear that this guy isn’t coming to the Reds to do the team’s laundry; they plan to fit him onto the active roster. This is far more than mere speculation, as Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has already tweeted that Ryan Hanigan is on the trading block.

How do these developments relate to Chapman?

Consider that both he and Pena are Cuban defectors who have an existing relationship. Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today noted that they worked out together during the winter leading up to Chapman’s MLB debut.

Chapman and Hanigan actually form a dominant duo. Chapman has had more experience and success with the Washington, DC native than with other Reds catchers, as Baseball-Reference.com illustrates:

Split G IP ER ERA SO SO/BB BA OPS
Ryan Hanigan 111 110.2 19 1.55 184 4.28 .143 .459
Ramon Hernandez 34 31.1 14 4.02 45 1.61 .165 .586
Devin Mesoraco 53 50.0 17 3.06 90 3.60 .163 .537
Corky Miller 3 2.2 0 0.00 3 3.00 .125 .347
Dioner Navarro 4 4.0 3 6.75 2 2.00 .267 .779

Then again, we must realize that starting situations require batteries to become much more intimate.

A language barrier isn’t problematic when working together for only one inning at a time and relying exclusively on fastballs and sliders. Pitching out of the rotation, however, often requires planning for specific opponents and the implementation of a third pitch (in Chapman’s case, a changeup). Hanigan is a more accomplished catcher than Pena, but the Reds are seemingly fine with making a minor statistical sacrifice if it creates an environment that allows their overpowering lefty to reach his full potential.

We have good reason to believe that Cincinnati has adopted this line of thinking. There’s been heated internal discussions during the past couple offseasons about whether to stretch out Chapman for starting duty.

ESPN Insider Jim Bowden takes us back to 2013 spring training when manager Dusty Baker clashed with his boss about the handling of the then-25-year-old (subscription required):

Now at the helm of the Cincinnati Reds, Baker is convinced leaving flame-throwing left-hander Aroldis Chapman as his closer gives him the best chance to win. Most of the players and staff think Chapman should close, too.

However, Reds general manager Walt Jocketty is convinced his team is better with Chapman starting. Pitching coach Bryan Price agrees.

Chapman’s teammates frankly shouldn’t have any input in this decision, and Jocketty fired Baker seven months later after the club’s premature playoff exit. Price was promptly named his successor.

MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon passes along this quote from his introductory press conference:

In regards to Aroldis, I was on record last Spring Training that pitchers get better throwing innings, especially pitchers that don’t have a lot of innings under their belt or pitchers that struggle to throw strikes or throw their secondary pitches over the plate. I haven’t changed that philosophy.

Even without Chapman, Cincinnati’s starting rotation was among baseball’s best a year ago:

However, veteran innings-eater Bronson Arroyo has become a free agent. He admitted to Mark Sheldon last month that he believes the Reds are “going in a different direction,” and their decision not to extend a $14.1 million qualifying offer supports that sentiment. His departure means that they need to replace someone who—quite literally, according to Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors—hadn’t missed a scheduled start in his eight years with Cincinnati.

On paper, the Reds can still assemble a fearsome quintet with Homer Bailey, Tony Cingrani, Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos and Mike Leake. Unfortunately, Bailey is due a big raise in arbitration that could compel Cincy to trade him, Sheldon explains. Cueto has top-of-the-rotation potential, but recurring lat issues make him a long shot to take the mound every fifth day.

Chapman’s contract status also gives the Reds incentives to start him.

We’re approaching the final guaranteed year of his deal. Barring a catastrophic injury or horrible performance, he’ll decline his 2015 player option, which is worth only $5 million. With a strong possibility that Chapman will find his best long-term contract offer elsewhere, perhaps the Reds want to get as much production as possible from him while they can.

No need to consult Sherlock Holmes—these dots practically connect themselves.

 

Ely is a national MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report and a sportscaster for 90.5 WVUM in Miami. He wants to make sweet, social love with all of you on Twitter.

 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


5 Under-the-Radar MLB Teams Who Could Be Surprise Offseason Buyers

MLB free agency is usually frustrating to follow for fans of low-spending teams.

Thankfully, the class of 2014 is unique. This offseason, many of the top available players could wind up committing to under-the-radar organizations.

You’ll see the New York Yankees attempt to use a ladder of cash to climb back to the playoffs, and the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers plan to overpay to fill their roster holes (again). The rich keep getting richer.

With that said, keep a close watch on these five struggling teams who might dig uncharacteristically deep into their pockets to improve.

 

*Stats provided by Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise specified.

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2014 MLB Free Agency: 5 Keys to Spending Money Wisely

The worst-to-first turnaround that has brought the Boston Red Sox to the 2013 World Series is largely attributable to their wise free-agent spending. Following the same keys they did this coming offseason could elevate most teams to the same heights in 2014.

General managers all have the same aspirations—acquire as much talent as possible for the lowest price.

The few that succeed from that perspective properly blend advanced statistics with personal evaluations; they factor in positional scarcity and only take calculated risks.

Specific spending strategies can vary a bit from front office to front office, but these are the constant guidelines that ought to be followed universally.

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Just How Good Is Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez-Trevor Rosenthal Rookie Bullpen Duo?

With the St. Louis Cardinals only three wins away from the 2013 World Series title, the team and its fans would obviously be disappointed if this October run ended without a championship.

Regardless of the series outcome, however, the franchise’s future is bright. That’s largely because it has dominant rookie pitchers under control for years to come, and specifically, two bullpen arms who have excelled on the big stage: Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal.

For those of you who slept through/inexplicably chose not to watch Game 2, a 4-2 Cards victory that evened the Fall Classic at 1-1, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports revisits the penultimate inning of it:

Eighth inning, runner on first with two outs, the left-handed hitting Ortiz set to face the right-handed Martinez. The by-the-book move would have been to summon veteran lefty Randy Choate for the platoon advantage, but Matheny stuck with Martinez, who threw 96 to 98 mph and got two of his three strikeouts on breaking balls.

And MLB.com presents the ninth:

Their combination of triple-digit heat, 1990s birth dates and recent success has the baseball world buzzing:

Does the narrative of a pennant winner with standout rookie relief sound familiar to you? It should.

However, we’ve seldom seen performance of this caliber from major league newbies, much less two such pitchers on the same roster.

Here’s how Martinez and Rosenthal stack up against other 21st-century examples of first-year pitchers who were trusted with high-leverage postseason innings:

To be fair, Rosenthal also pitched in the 2012 playoffs when the Cardinals advanced to the NLCS. Because of his limited service time during that regular season, he retained rookie eligibility for another year. Combining his two October experiences, the 23-year-old has pitched 16.2 scoreless innings.

That shouldn’t take anything away from what he and Martinez have been accomplishing.

The past two Cardinals opponents, the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers, were both significantly more productive off right-handed pitching this season. You wouldn’t know it from their recent impotence against this pair. Those offenses have generated a .119 batting average and only one run in 13.2 innings with them on the mound.

Stuff-wise, Francisco Rodriguez and Joel Zumaya used to be electrifying; Hideki Okajima and Adam Wainwright demonstrated awesome command. With that said, Martinez and Rosenthal exceed them all with their ability to combine power and precision.

The question on the mind of every St. Louis fan is whether either of these promising flamethrowers can follow in Wainwright’s footsteps. He has blossomed into the club’s rotation ace. Waino is likely to finish top three in NL Cy Young Award voting for the third time following a summer in which he led the Senior Circuit in innings pitched.

Martinez’s size—6’0″, 185 pounds—may prevent him from completing that transition. The Dominican native possesses a plus curveball to complement his fantastic fastball, but his 106 innings pitched this year is already the highest total of his professional career. There’s understandably some doubt about his body holding up for 30-plus starts.

Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Bernie Pleskoff is of the opinion that Rosenthal should eventually make the leap. His changeup is more refined and his thicker frame dispels any durability concerns.

Regardless of which roles they occupy in 2014 and beyond, the Cardinals should expect effectiveness and a high probability of contending for future champagne celebrations. 

 

Ely is a national MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report and a sportscaster for 90.5 WVUM in Miami. He’s hoping to deepen relationships with his fantastic online audience (that means you) via Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


7 Reasons Cardinals Will Take Command of World Series in St. Louis

We came into the 2013 World Series expecting a dramatic, drawn-out battle between the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals. With the teams tied at a game apiece and the action shifting to Busch Stadium, that’s exactly what it’s shaping up to be.

The Cards probably won’t win three straight and bring the Fall Classic to a premature conclusion, but they should at least take command with two victories at home.

Let’s review their greatest advantages going forward.

 

*All stats provided by Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise specified.

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World Series 2013: Step-by-Step Guide for St. Louis Cardinals to Win the Series

There a zillion different ways for the St. Louis Cardinals to win the 2013 World Series, but trusting each step in this guide would put them in the best position to knock off the Boston Red Sox.

It will take a mix of strategy and plain ol’ execution to exact revenge on the Sox after being swept by them in 2004. The Rally Squirrel is also an essential piece of the equation.

If the Cards do wind up as MLB champions, it will likely be because they took advantage of particular matchups with the following suggestions.

 

1. Get Allen Craig back in the lineup

For Games 1 and 2 of the Fall Classic, manager Mike Matheny will be grateful for American League rules. They’ll allow him to insert Allen Craig back into the starting lineup alongside all the other reputable Cardinals batters.

As Bleacher Report’s Jason Catania explained, the Cardinals’ leading run producer from the regular season ought to be a lot more intimidating than soft-hitting Shane Robinson or Daniel Descalso. Matheny would likely choice his DH from that pair if Craig weren’t arriving the end of his comeback trail.

The 29-year-old’s dominance with runners in scoring position led the team to an MLB-best .330/.402/.463 batting line in such situations.

However, the once-elite offense has been barely recognizable in the playoffs. Four times during the NLDS and NLCS, St. Louis was limited to four hits or fewer. The club limped past the Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Dodgers with a .610 OPS.

Even at less than full strength, Craig will bolster the roster. He’ll instantly become the No. 1 weapon off a terrible Cardinals bench once the series shifts to Busch Stadium. St. Louis pinch hitters have gone only 2-for-15 at the plate in October, a figure Craig could certainly improve.

 

2. Don’t push Adam Wainwright too deep

St. Louis will open the World Series five days after finishing off the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS, which means all the bullpen arms will be fully rested.

Depending on what Adam Wainwright’s body language is telling Matheny during the middle innings of Game 1, the skipper shouldn’t hesitate to make a change.

Granted, the veteran right-hander has been fantastic over the past month-and-a-half. Waino boasts a 1.71 earned run average in eight starts dating back to early September, and his stellar strikeout-to-walk ratio has held steady.

Nonetheless, 264.2 total innings is uncharted territory for him. Actually, it’s insane by almost anybody’s standards.

You’ll notice that most pitchers on this list began deteriorating in their mid-30s (Justin Verlander isn’t quite there yet). Wainwright is signed to a lucrative contract for the next five seasons, so the Cardinals won’t be thrilled if he follows that same path.

But there’s also the question of whether leaving their workhorse in the game for the later innings gives the Cards their best chance to win.

Although Waino occasionally cruises from start to finish, he’s also prone to minor implosions. Even coughing up a couple of runs in Game 1 or 5 of this series could doom the team against Red Sox pitcher Jon Lester and Boston’s lights-out, late-inning relief.

Matheny has to have the courage to make an early switch if the 32-year-old is flirting with disaster.

 

3. Throw first-pitch strikes to Jacoby Ellsbury

Ideally, the Cardinals will uncover a loophole in the collective bargaining agreement that makes Jacoby Ellsbury a free agent immediately. That way, he’ll go out and search for his $100 million contract instead of wreaking havoc in the World Series.

Assuming that doesn’t happen, they’ll actually need to prepare for this speed demon.

The 30-year-old center fielder has been the best player for the Red Sox in the postseason, batting .400/.467/.525 with six stolen bases and 10 runs scored. Because St. Louis cannot prevent Ellsbury from tracking down balls in the outfield, the club must focus on minimizing his offensive impact.

That means regularly getting ahead in the count.

By throwing first-pitch strikes, you slice his odds of walking in half. During the season, he drew 31 free passes in 270 plate appearances when ahead 1-0 compared to only 16 in 297 situations when he fell behind. Keeping the MLB steals leader off base is so important because he’s one of the few players who can succeed against Yadier Molina’s throwing arm.

Ellsbury is generally patient, as he has swung at only 45.5 percent of pitches this year and 43.8 percent in his major league career. However, he might not be able to resist a Wainwright curveball or a Michael Wacha changeup if forced into a lousy count.

 

4. Embrace small ball later in the series

Red Sox skipper John Farrell plans to use David Ortiz at first base for some portion of Games 3-5 (h/t ESPNBoston.com), and the Cards better use that matchup to their advantage. Big Papi has 250 career starts at the position during the regular season but only 25 since 2008.

To be fair, he sometimes has himself a clean day, like this one from 2012: 

With that said, it’s likely the 37-year-old’s glacial running speed and laughable lack of range will lead to him faltering on one or more makeable plays.

With Ortiz out of his comfort zone, St. Louis should encourage struggling batters like Jon Jay and Pete Kozma to mess with the infield defense. This could mean bunts to the right side that test Ortiz’s athleticism and situational intelligence or grounders the other way that force Xander Bogaerts and Stephen Drew to connect with an inflexible target.

We noticed from the early playoff rounds that the Red Birds were frustratingly inconsistent when they blindly put balls in play. Just another reason to buy into this strategy.

 

5. Bring in power arms early and often

The Red Sox offense ranked atop the sport in numerous categories this summer. Farrell’s team is powerful, disciplined and situationally sound.

Thankfully for St. Louis, the American League Championship Series revealed their kryptonite: power pitching.

The opposing Detroit Tigers set an all-time record by racking up 73 strikeouts in a single postseason series (and it took them only six games to do it). There was a dry spell during which Boston had three hits in 16 innings.

Although the Cards starting rotation doesn’t feature swing-and-miss masters like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the pitching staff as a whole certainly does. Carlos Martinez, Kevin Siegrist and Trevor Rosenthal all possess that kind of ability out of the pen.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, typical 2013 batters produced at only 86 percent of their usual OPS against power pitching (see tOPS+). Boston’s guys were all the way down to 74 percent this season.

Feel free, Mr. Matheny, to ride your starters for awhile if they have healthy leads, but remember to exploit your opponent’s not-so-secret weakness whenever the outcome is in doubt.

 

Ely is a national MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report and a sportscaster for 90.5 WVUM in Miami. He’s hoping to deepen relationships with his fantastic online audience (that means you) via Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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