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5 Secret Weapons for 2013 MLB Playoff Contenders

MLB teams can’t earn postseason berths without huge contributions from their veteran mainstays, but in October, managers also rely on their secret weapons to do some damage.

They tend to be younger players who have reached the majors within the past few years. Perhaps these under-the-radar individuals were dominant as prospects (or at least held in high regard), but they certainly aren’t perceived as stars at the highest level.

All my fellow Lil’ Kim fans may be under the impression that “what they don’t know won’t hurt ’em.”

Well in this scenario, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Like Francisco Rodriguez in 2002 and David Freese in 2011, the following five have the talent and the opportunities to blindside unsuspecting opponents and establish themselves as difference-makers in the 2013 playoffs.

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Can Jose Dariel Abreu Be the San Francisco Giants’ Version of Yasiel Puig?

Envious of how Cuban stars have guided several of their MLB rivals into playoff contention, the San Francisco Giants continue to make a strong push for free-agent slugger Jose Dariel Abreu.

Optimistic that he can become their version of Yasiel Puig, the reigning World Series champs have sent general manager Brian Sabean to the Dominican Republic for some first-hand scouting, tweets Dionisio Soldevilla of ESPNDeportes.com:

Abreu’s countrymen have irritated the Giants in recent years by effortlessly adjusting to the majors.

Yoenis Cespedes arrived in the Bay Area prior to the 2012 season after inking a four-year contract with the Oakland Athletics. He has 45 home runs and an .800 OPS through two seasons in their outfield.

Puig debuted this past June and elevated the Los Angeles Dodgers from mediocrity to pennant contention with one of the most impressive all-time starts to an MLB career.

Through 88 games, he flaunts a .339/.404/.556 batting line, which puts him neck-and-neck with Jose Fernandez in the NL Rookie of the Year race. Moreover, his unrivaled athleticism has helped the Dodgers financially, according to Eric Stephen of True Blue LA, by buffing up television ratings and selling merchandise.

Can Abreu make a similar splash for the Giants in 2014?

The 26-year-old isn’t going to contribute eye-popping outfield throws or aggressive baserunning, but his hitting ability is Barry Bonds-esque.

Grantland’s Jonah Keri spent a few thousand words raving about Abreu’s power numbers in early 2012.

It’s difficult to fathom anyone maintaining a .453/.597/.986 batting line at any professional level, which he did in Cuba’s Serie Nacional during the 2010-2011 campaign. Ben Badler of Baseball America notes that we’ve been treated to hundreds of Abreu at-bats in international competition, and most of those results were extraordinary.

Remember this moonshot from the 2013 World Baseball Classic?

Presently, San Francisco’s starting rotation is in shambles. Abreu could go deep every other game next summer and the team still wouldn’t compete with the Dodgers for NL West supremacy.

However, assuming that Sabean and his staff invest in adequate pitching this winter, the club could immediately return to relevancy. A strong supporting cast would be the soapbox for this 6’3″, 240-pound myth to stand on as he battles for our attention and disposable income.

Of course, acquiring Abreu in the first place will require a considerable financial sacrifice. 

L.A. committed seven years and $42 million to Puig based on a few batting practice sessions.

Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com expects Abreu to demand double the average annual value, while Jeff Passon of Yahoo! Sports can imagine the winning bid costing north of $60 million. In a free-agent class that’s devoid of consistent, middle-of-the-lineup types, he ought to be highly sought-after.

Although there’s a chance that Abreu joins Puig as a global star and MVP-caliber player, it is much more likely that he fails to mesmerize.

Abreu is a one-dimensional player who won’t use his legs or fielding ability to compensate for slumps at the plate. Also, part of Puig‘s appeal comes from his enthusiasm and immaturity, and we’ll see less of that from Abreu (nearly four years older).

It’s still wise for the Giants to pursue the dominant defector, so long as they have realistic expectations about his potential to influence their bottom line and quest for another championship.

 

Ely hits for less power than Abreu, but also has interest in signing for millions of dollars. If you have that kind of money laying around (or just love chatting about baseball), contact him on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


10 MLB Stars Under the Most Pressure in September

All MLB stars must cope with immense pressure in September. They’re either leading teams into the playoffs, trying to buff up their stats for upcoming contract negotiations or responsible for exciting a non-contender’s fanbase down the stretch.

Taking advantage of the first competitive season of your career can be just as important as ensuring that your last season before a deal ends finishes on a positive note.

The impact players around the majors who are managing the most stress at this stage of the season are those with uncertain financial futures. The difference between a player suffering a major injury this month and dominating the opposition could be worth tens of millions of dollars to him.

Don’t be surprised to discover that many of the stars featured here will enter free agency this winter. It’s always fascinating to watch which individuals embrace the pressure and who crumbles underneath it.

 

*Stats provided by FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Updated through games of Sept. 9.

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Twitter Reacts to Yusmeiro Petit’s Near-Perfect Game

Venezuelan journeyman Yusmeiro Petit came within one out of completing a perfect game for the San Francisco Giants on Friday night. Although Eric Chavez shattered that dream with a single to right field, Petit’s scoreless effort caused Twitter to erupt with reaction.

There’s a simple explanation for why the 28-year-old has spent so much of this summer in the minors: he takes the mound with ordinary stuff that can be hit hard.

That wasn’t true on this special occasion:

The suspense really began building in the seventh and eighth innings. Petit’s pursuit of perfection went viral, and most Twitter users were totally confused:

Although Petit has pitched parts of six major league seasons, he was probably the subject of more tweets in one night than he was during all those previous performances combined:

The ninth inning rolled around with the right-hander flaunting an astonishingly efficient pitch count (especially when compared to Tim Lincecum’s special night earlier in 2013). There was zero doubt about him staying in for a chance at immortality.

Petit recorded his seventh strikeout against Chris Owings, then forced Gerardo Parra to ground out softly.

Alas, Eric Chavez ruined everybody’s fun. He was so close to striking out, and Hunter Pence nearly caught his soft liner later in the plate appearance:

Nonetheless, Petit regained his composure to finish off the D-Backs for his first MLB shutout.

Braces yourselves—here come the obscure stats:

Anybody who was aware of this game’s starting pitching matchup would’ve given Patrick Corbin the upper hand. In a frustrating year that has seen most of the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation underachieve, he’s been a quintessential workhorse.

The All-Star southpaw finished his third complete game of the season—8.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 5 K—and received a few virtual pats on the back:

Corbin still ranks among the National League’s top 10 in terms of earned run average and innings pitched.

Finally, an “inspiring” takeaway from Petit’s unlikely masterpiece:

 

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Can New York Yankees Overcome Hurting Bullpen in Bid for Postseason Berth?

Consecutive losses have all but eliminated the New York Yankees from AL East title contention, and late Friday night, the injury bug took a sizable bite out of their bullpen.

From the team’s Twitter account:

Although overshadowed by Mariano Rivera and his lavish retirement gifts, David Robertson has established himself as the most effective pitcher in New York’s bullpen. He leads all Yankees relievers with a 1.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and ranks second behind Mo in strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Boone Logan, an impending free agent, enjoyed a stellar first half to 2013. However, he’s found it increasingly difficult to throw strikes recently. The Texas native arrived in the Bronx in 2010 as a lefty specialist, but his platoon splits have gradually become milder.

It’s September, so active rosters have expanded. That ensures that manager Joe Girardi can always find somebody to pitch the crucial seventh and eighth innings, but none of his options rival Robertson or Logan in terms of quality. Once-promising rookie right-hander Preston Claiborne has been maimed in back-to-back appearances versus the Boston Red Sox, and Joba Chamberlain is an enigma beyond salvation.

A short-handed bullpen shifts pressure onto the starting rotation. The current quintet of Hiroki Kuroda, CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Ivan Nova and David Huff won’t likely provide enough length to spare the healthy relievers from overuse.

Let’s not overestimate the Yankees offense, either. Automatic outs like Derek Jeter and Chris Stewart often disrupt big rallies, while Robinson Cano and Alfonso Soriano have been the only consistent power sources in the everyday lineup. All in all, this isn’t an elite crop of position players capable of carrying a team.

New York seems extremely vulnerable at a time when it can least afford to lose ground in the standings. Both the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Indians leapfrogged the Yankees in the AL wild-card race following their latest triumphs.

For just the second time is as many decades, expect the postseason field to exclude the sport’s most storied franchise.

 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Does Jose Fernandez’s 1-Hit Effort Push Him Past Yasiel Puig in NL ROY Vote?

Right-hander Jose Fernandez conquered the Washington Nationals on Friday night with seven marvelous shutout innings. He even maintained a no-hitter for most of the start, pushing him oh-so-slightly ahead of fellow Cuban phenom Yasiel Puig in a hotly contested National League Rookie of the Year race.

The Miami Marlins stunned the baseball world by recalling Fernandez from their minor league system at age 20 despite zero experience against Double-A and Triple-A competition.

A few months later, we’re all looking foolish for doubting them.

His 2.23 ERA through 165.2 innings pitched ranks second only to Clayton Kershaw among qualified starters. Moreover, Fernandez leads the entire Senior Circuit in strikeout rate, and he continues to gradually improve in that department.

Keep in mind, Fernandez is working his miracles with an inexperienced—and quite frankly, inadequate—supporting cast. The Fish have averaged an MLB-worst 3.27 runs per game in 2013, and a .301 BABIP against their pitching staff indicates below-average fielding.

It’s not a perfect comparison, but last season, voting for the NL’s best first-year player also came down to an outfielder and starting pitcher. Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals eked past Arizona Diamondbacks difference-maker Wade Miley. It’s clear that combining excellent September production with team success tempted numerous voters to choose Harper.

Puig may wind up with those same two advantages.

His Los Angeles Dodgers have virtually locked up the NL West title. They were on the verge of collapse only three months ago, and it’s no coincidence that their fortunes began to change when Puig received his call-up in June.

Playing the game with unparalleled ferocity has resulted in a few injuries, but his remarkable physique undoubtedly helped minimize the damage from those collisions.

Through 82 games, the 22-year-old is batting .348/.408/.558 with 14 home runs and 56 runs scored. Given a full summer and the opportunity to sustain that production over a sample twice the size would at least put him on the fringe of NL MVP award contention.

One disadvantage Puig probably won’t overcome is his turbulent relationship with tenured baseball writers, a few of whom directly decide the major award winners. More than a few national columns have been committed to overstating his immaturity and nitpicking his outstanding overall performance. Shouting expletives at them tops his list of regrettable actions/responses.

If Joe Frisaro of MLB.com has trustworthy sources, then we can expect Fernandez to conclude his ultra-successful debut after five innings against the Atlanta Braves on Sept. 11. That would give Puig an extra two-and-a-half weeks of meaningful matchups to distinguish himself.

As things currently stand, however, there’s overwhelming statistical evidence stating that the former has made the greater impact.

 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Logan Morrison Reportedly Hits Longest HR of 2013 Season at Estimated 484 Feet

Miami Marlins first baseman Logan Morrison made sure that the Marlins got some love in an otherwise forgettable season with a majestic two-run blast to right-center field on Friday night.

The initial estimate of 484 feet would make it the longest home run hit by an MLB player in 2013:

With rookie ace Jose Fernandez carving up the Washington Nationals‘ lineup, the Fish jumped ahead 3-0. Morrison’s second plate appearance of the night came against Dan Haren in the bottom of the third inning following a Giancarlo Stanton walk.

The 26-year-old must have channeled all his emotions from what has to be a frustrating season into that left-handed swing. Or maybe he simply took advantage of a belt-high, 88 mile-per-hour fastball.

Whatever the case, it landed five rows deep in the second deck at Marlins Park, safely out of reach of the few fans who bothered attending.

Although Morrison began the evening with only five home runs in 64 games played this season, it’s not all that surprising to see him obliterate a baseball like this. In Bleacher Report’s new B/R MLB 500 series, Zachary Rymer noted that the vast dimensions of Miami’s home stadium naturally suppress offensive production. “Realistically, LoMo’s power is above average,” he writes.

Moreover, Haren is the perfect candidate to serve up such an epic no-doubter. Despite a midseason stint on the disabled list, he entered the start with an NL-worst 25 home runs allowed in only 26 appearances.

However, we’re certainly not done with this story. It’s still unclear how far Morrison’s round-tripper actually traveled.

As mentioned earlier, the Marlins made a generous calculation:

The league evidently trusts Miami’s mathematicians:

Meanwhile, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald points out the discrepancy between that and ESPN’s approximation:

Ultimately, the World Wide Leader is probably going to win this dispute. They collaborated with Greg Rybarczyk and his ball-tracking technology several years ago, a partnership which has since hatched the ESPN Home Run Tracker. Bleacher Report has spent all season recognizing those stats as official, and will continue doing so.

In terms of “True Distance,” here’s the list of this year’s most prolific launches:

Hitter Date HR Distance (Feet)
Hunter Pence 8/27/13 476
Mark Trumbo 4/29/13 475
Anthony Rizzo 4/18/13 475
Jay Bruce 6/22/13 472
Mike Napoli 5/1/13 472
Todd Frazier 4/24/13 470
Colby Rasmus 4/6/13 468

That means the 17 feet in question would be the difference between first and eighth place. Following the game, expect Morrison himself to tweet on the subject from his popular personal account.

 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


How the Dodgers Can Win It All Even If Matt Kemp Never Returns

Two years removed from being dominant and durable for the Los Angeles Dodgers, outfielder Matt Kemp no longer exemplifies either adjective.

The latest reminder of this comes from Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times, who tweets that Kemp’s season is in doubt:

Hold back your tears, Dodgers fans. This juggernaut of a team is capable of clinching a World Series without any more at-bats from one of its most prominent players.

Kemp has battled lower-body injuries since Memorial Day, specifically those affecting his hamstring and ankle. Even if active, it’s unlikely that he’d influence games with his baserunning and extra-base power like he did from 2011-2012.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have exploded into the odds-on favorite in the National League. After many weeks of inconsistency, they now meet most of the criteria in Zachary Rymer’s thorough championship blueprint.

The postseason demands that contenders trust their top four starting pitchers. No quartet rivals Clayton Kershaw (1.89 ERA in 209.0 IP), Zack Greinke (2.78 ERA in 148.2 IP), Ricky Nolasco (3.26 ERA in 179.2 IP) and Hyun-jin Ryu (3.02 ERA in 167.0 IP). Greinke and Nolasco, in particular, have pitched their best in the season’s second half and proven that success can be sustained with a pedestrian strikeout rate.

L.A. doesn’t have the luxury of a powerful lineup, but they’re arguably better off with players who work the count and put balls in play. The starting infield is very sound defensively, and with reserves like Nick Punto and Michael Young, the Dodgers wouldn’t be undone by a sudden injury.

Kenley Jansen and Paco Rodriguez are perhaps the most underrated late-inning relief duo in baseball. Per FanGraphs, here’s how they compare to other notable eighth-ninth combinations:

MLB Late-Inning Duos
Team Eighth/Ninth Relievers K/BB fWAR
Atlanta Braves Luis Avilan/Craig Kimbrel 115/38 2.6
Detroit Tigers Drew Smyly/Joaquin Benoit 131/34 2.6
Los Angeles Dodgers Paco Rodriguez/Kenley Jansen 158/27 3.2
New York Yankees David Robertson/Mariano Rivera 117/26 2.7

If you didn’t know, now you know.

Kemp’s fielding in center field fools the public. Although he’s a smooth glider who occasionally makes eye-popping catches, he ultimately hurts the Dodgers with his wild throws and unimpressive instincts.

Andre Ethier is a better fit for the position if we go by Defensive Runs Saved or Ultimate Zone Rating (or anything else besides a basic eye test). Although his .791 OPS isn’t quite vintage Kemp, it trumps replacement-level production.

Of course, media darling—No, what’s the opposite of media darling? Media nemesis?—Yasiel Puig makes or breaks this club.

His first few games of September have looked a whole lot like his historic June, so his bat shouldn’t be portrayed as anything less than dynamic. For all the nitpicking about Puig missing cutoff men, his reputation seems to intimidate the opposition. You’ll seldom find another right fielder with hold percentages this high, per Baseball-Reference.com.

While it’s true that his own baserunning can be counterproductive, it doesn’t come close to negating his other immense contributions.

Entering Friday night, the Dodgers have posted a 52-25 record during games in which Kemp doesn’t participate. It’s been nearly three months since they last suffered more than two consecutive losses.

The Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox—among others—possess sufficient talent, depth and discipline to upset L.A. in a playoff series. That’s how competitive balance works.

However, all things considered, the Dodgers wholly deserve their top ranking and our trust, regardless of Kemp’s availability.

 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Should the Detroit Tigers Activate Jhonny Peralta for the Playoffs?

In an interview with MLB Network Radio, Detroit Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski confirmed that he’s in the process of determining whether or not Jhonny Peralta will be welcomed back to the roster when his Biogenesis-related suspension expires (h/t James Schmehl, MLive.com).

It’s a sensitive situation and one without a definitively “correct” resolution, but we’ll dig a little deeper into the pros and cons.

Peralta served as Detroit’s everyday shortstop prior to accepting a 50-game ban. At the time, the Tigers sat comfortably atop the AL Central, and with a 81-59 record entering Friday night’s action, they’re extremely likely to participate in the playoffs.

As an accomplished veteran and free-agent-to-be on a contending team, Peralta has plenty in common with Melky Cabrera, who starred for the San Francisco Giants in 2012. He flunked a midsummer drug test, and the Giants declined to utilize him that October. They won the World Series anyway.

One slight difference is that Dombrowski‘s troublemaker will regain eligibility with three games remaining in the regular season.

Let’s consider whether that—or any other factor—can sway the longtime GM one way or the other.

 

Why They Should

Peralta was a .305/.361/.461 hitter with a 121 OPS+ in 2013 prior to taking his punishment from Major League Baseball. He has a .275/.332/.434 batting line (106 OPS+) since joining the Tigers in 2010, and a .268/.330/.425 line (101 OPS+) in parts of 11 MLB seasons.

Whichever way you slice it, he would be an asset to the Tigers roster, both in late September and the postseason. The 31-year-old is simply better than Don Kelly or Ramon Santiago.

Although Peralta’s defense isn’t graceful, do not dispute its overall effectiveness. His strengths include strong hands and a accurate throwing arm, hence six separate seasons—2006-2008 and 2011-2013—ranking among the American League’s top three in fielding percentage at shortstop.

Baseball-Reference.com values him at 2.4 dWAR over the past three seasons, while FanGraphs gives him a 25.5 UZR. For comparison’s sake, Jimmy Rollins of the Philadelphia Phillies has compiled -0.8 dWAR and 8.5 UZR with comparable playing time in that span.

Peralta could serve as an alternative at third base should slugger Miguel Cabrera continue to battle nagging injuries. He has 203 career starts at the position, including some as recently as 2010. Miggy will return to Detroit’s lineup on Friday, but he missed four of the five previous games due to abdominal pain, not to mention a handful in late July and early August.

In James Schemhl’s write-up, Dombrowski praises Peralta’s work ethic and notes that the All-Star was “apologetic” about his involvement with performance-enhancing drugs.

If the front office respects him as a player and a person, why not activate him upon serving the full 50 games?

The organization has to pay Peralta during those final days of the season. Might as well get some production for it.

 

Why They Shouldn’t

Let’s say that Cabrera heads down the stretch in solid health and Jose Iglesias continues to supplement his Gold Glove-caliber defense with .300 hitting (albeit a powerless one). That would relegate Peralta to a reserve role.

Not only will he show rust after nearly two months away from the majors, but the Tigers would be asking him to leave his comfort zone and try unfamiliar tasks.

Namely, pinch hitting. Peralta has only 22 plate appearances coming off the bench (two since 2012); his .921 OPS in such situations is meaningless considering the small sample size. Requiring a longtime starter to overhaul his normal mental and physical preparation seldom benefits the team.

Future Hall of Famer Jim Thome is a terrific example. His lifetime .956 OPS was dragged down by a .730 OPS in 163 pinch-hitting opportunities.

The upshot—Peralta won’t necessarily make the Tigers better given their current roster composition.

Meanwhile, allowing him to return would certainly offend fans. NPR rounded up some surveys that suggest that the majority of the baseball-loving population holds low opinions of cheaters and wants steroids out of the sport.

Perhaps the biggest question on Dombrowski‘s mind concerns how Peralta’s presence would affect the clubhouse. Would the Tigers embrace the return of a familiar face or feel angry about being lied to? MLB.com’s Jason Beck asked around in the immediate aftermath of the suspension announcement, and let’s just say there wasn’t consensus support.

 

Our Verdict

Let him play.

Dombrowski and manager Jim Leyland probably won’t approach him with open arms, but how about firm handshakes for someone who has contributed so much on the field?

Winning is the Tigers’ No. 1 objective, and Peralta is more likely to help in that pursuit than he is to weigh them down.

 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


A-Rod and MLB’s 10 Most Villainized PED Users Ever

Major League Baseball has taken a no-nonsense approach to performance-enhancing drugs. MLB officials, the sport’s fans and even its players now villify the rotten individuals who attempt to cheat their way to on-field success and monetary gain.

Keep in mind, several of the following PED users never actually tested positive for an illegal substance. Some admitted to injecting themselves or cannot disprove overwhelming circumstantial evidence.

Nonetheless, they’re all despised by a significant portion of the population because of their actions and intentions.

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