Kuzul

Heading into 2010 fantasy owners wanted to believe that the Chicago White Sox’ Gordon Beckham would mature into a must-use second base option.  He was coming off an impressive rookie season as a third baseman (.270, 14 HR, 63 RBI, 58 R in 378 AB) with a line that certainly would play well at second base especially when projected over a full season.

Unfortunately a repeat performance was not in the cards as Beckham struggled:

444 At-Bats
.252 Batting Average (112 Hits)
9 Home Runs
49 RBI
58 Runs
4 Stolen Bases
.317 On-Base Percentage
.378 Slugging Percentage
.297 Batting Average on Balls in Play

There was no one problem that caused his struggles.  Instead, there are many things that we can point to that showed a general regression, leading to his sophomore slump.

First was his ability to make contact.  In his rookie year he posted a strikeout rate of 17.2 percent.  Last season that number rose to 20.7 percent.

Over his brief minor league career (just 233 AB) the 2008 first-round draft pick struck out just 33 times (14.16 percent).  Yes, it is a rather small sample size but when you couple it with his 2009 performance you get the feeling that he is significantly better than what he showed last season.  An improvement there would go a long way in him improving his average.

His power metrics also took a hit:

• 2009: 43.0 percent fly-ball rate; 10.4 percent HR/FB
• 2010: 37.0 percent fly-ball rate; 6.9 percent HR/FB

There certainly is reason to believe that there is a lot more power in his bat than he showed last season.  Prior to the 2009 season Baseball America, who ranked him as the White Sox’s No. 1 prospect, said:

“He doesn’t have a classic stroke but has strong forearms and quick wrists, generating impressive bat speed. Though he isn’t built like a power hitter, he centers the ball well and the ball jumps off his bat. He led the Cape Cod League with nine homers in 2007, suggesting that his power comes from more than a metal bat.”

That certainly brings hope that he can at least rediscover the power he showed in 2009 and maybe take a small step forward as well.  It wouldn’t be a big surprise to see him approach the 20 HR mark, given his history and what he showed at the major league level in 2009. 

In 2010 he spent the majority of his time hitting ninth (273 AB), which certainly makes it more difficult to both drive in and score runs.  Moving up in the order, which is a good possibility, will certainly help him improve on those numbers as well.

The bottom line with Beckham is that, despite his struggles in 2010, there are a lot of reasons to like his potential to improve significantly.  I wouldn’t draft him as my starting second baseman, but as a middle infielder or a depth option he’s a tremendous pick.  He’s not going to provide speed, so if that’s what you are looking for you should keep looking, but with power upside he’s going to have significant potential value.

I would consider him a fairly low-risk, high-reward player making him a great selection for 2011.

What are your thoughts on Beckham?  How good could he be in 2011?  Would you target him on draft day?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The second overall selection in the 2009 draft, Dustin Ackley, made his professional debut in 2010, making quick work of the minor leagues.  He split time between Double- and Triple-A, posting the following line:

• 501 At Bats
• .267 Batting Average (134 Hits)
• Seven Home Runs
• 51 RBI
• 79 Runs
• 10 Stolen Bases
• .368 On Base Percentage
• .407 Slugging Percentage
• .306 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The statistics were solid, though not spectacular in any sense of the word.  Considered potentially “the best pure hitter in the college ranks, if not the entire draft class” by mlb.com heading into the draft, he clearly failed to live up to the billing in 2010.

While he did show a good eye at the play, posting a 13.02 percent walk rate compared to a 15.77 percent strikeout rate, the overall average just wasn’t there at either level that he played at:

• Double-A (289 AB) – .263
• Triple-A (212 AB) – .274

It certainly is concerning, though a slow start to the season (he was hitting .139 through May 3) was a big culprit.  Baseball America, who recently ranked him as the Mariners best prospect heading into 2011, noted that in the two months that followed, he hit .301.  They also gave us more hope, saying:

“He’s extremely patient at the plate, recognizes pitches well and isn’t afraid to wait for the pitch he wants or to hit with two strikes. He can sometimes pull off pitches, but he gets his bat on plane with the ball extremely quickly and his barrel stays in the hitting zone for a long time. His picturesque swing and uncanny hand-eye coordination produce excellent plate coverage.  Ackley is mostly a gap hitter now, but he can drive the ball to all fields and occasionally shows nice loft.”

He certainly lived up to the potential in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .424 in 66 AB, walking 26 times vs. just 11 walks.  Obviously it is a small sample size, but it certainly helps to alleviate a few of our concerns.

While he hit four home runs in the AFL, it is not something that we should expect him to be able to continue.  Power was the one question coming out of the draft and it is possible that he only develops into a 15-20 HR hitter, max.  Still, at a weaker position, if he is capable of posting an elite average it is more than enough to make us happy.

At 23 years old, he will likely open the season back at Triple-A, but it is not going to be long before he reaches Seattle.  Chone Figgins, who played 2B in 2010, will be shifted back to 3B after the trade of Jose Lopez.  That leaves Brendan Ryan (.223, two HR, 11 SB in ’10) and Josh Wilson (.227, 2 HR, 5 SB in ’10) as the options to open the season at 2B. 

In fact, a hot spring could land Ackley the Opening Day job, but that doesn’t appear likely at this point.  Like most teams, the Mariners will likely keep him down in the minors for a few weeks early on, to avoid his arbitration clock from starting a year early.

He’s not going to be one of the elite options, especially considering he doesn’t have significant upside in the HR or SB departments at this point in his career.  However, in leagues that require middle infielders he will absolutely have value.  Late in your draft if you want to take a high upside flier, you certainly can do a whole lot worse.

What are your thoughts of Ackley?  How good will he be?  Is he someone you would want to own in 2011?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:

• Archer, Chris
• Britton, Zach
• Iglesias, Jose
• Kipnis, Jason
• Lawrie, Brett
• Mesoraco, Devin
• Pineda, Michael
• Ramos, Wilson
• Revere, Ben
• Taylor, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

This is the newest feature I am going to be doing as we head towards fantasy drafts.  In an effort to target which closers could be in jeopardy of losing their jobs, who to target for vulture saves, etc., we will be breaking down each team’s bullpen.  Let’s kick things off with a look at the Red Sox:

The Closer: Jonathan Papelbon

Since assuming the Red Sox closer’s role in 2006, Papelbon has been one of the elite closing options in the league, totaling 188 saves (at least 35 a season).  However, after blowing eight saves in 2010 to go along with a career worst ERA (3.90) and WHIP (1.27), his leash will be extremely short in 2011.

Over the past two years, his control has been an issue (walk rates of 3.18 and 3.76), which helps to explain his increased WHIP (from 2006-2008 he had posted WHIPs of 0.78, 0.77 and 0.95).  Last season he also suffered from a below average strand rate of 68.7 percent, which helps to explain his higher ERA.  Prior to 2010 his worst ERA was 2.34.

His strikeout rate has been consistently above 10.0 per nine innings, which does help to offset things.  He also consistently works a lot of innings (67.0 innings or more in four of the past five seasons).

There certainly are enough positives to continue ranking him among the top 10 options, but you have to do so with an asterisk.  The Red Sox are built to win now, so the first time he has an extended slump could mark the end of his run as the team’s closer.

Next in Line: Daniel Bard, Bobby Jenks

Bard was electric over 74.2 innings in 2010 while posting a 1.93 ERA and 1.00 WHIP (Papelbon-esque numbers).  His K/9 was at 9.16, though with a fastball that averages close to 98 mph, seeing that number improve is extremely realistic.

His control was alright, with a walk rate of 3.62, and he certainly benefited from a .225 BABIP.  Still, with his strikeout rate, even if the latter regresses there he should be more than capable of posting a solid WHIP.

At 25 years old, he is the team’s future at the position.  The question is if the future is now.

Bobby Jenks, the former White Sox closer, could easily have something to say about that.  He was brought in to help set up for Papelbon, but with the Red Sox built to win, they could opt for his experience should Papelbon struggle.

Yes, he had a 4.44 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 2010, but he also suffered from some terrible luck (.368 BABIP, 65.4 percent strand rate).  He has a good strikeout rate (8.80 K/9 for his career) and solid control (2.90 BB/9 for his career).  There certainly is a good chance he rebounds and could post an extremely solid 2011 campaign.

The Rest: Dan Wheeler, Tim Wakefield, Michael Bowden, Scott Atchison, etc.

Given the three options at the top of the bullpen, no one here holds fantasy appeal.  Wheeler would be the sleeper, but it just seems unlikely he makes any type of major impact at the end of ballgames.

The Conclusion

While Jonathan Papelbon will open 2011 as the team’s closer, it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see a change made at some point.  Jenks’ experience may win out as the next in line, but Bard’s ability is too much to overlook.  Bard is the long-term solution and if Papelbon does falter, I would expect the Red Sox to go with the hot hand.  Keep that in mind, but for now Jenks would appear to be the better handcuff.

What are your thoughts of Boston’s bullpen?  Will Papelbon hold the job for the entire 2011 season?  If not, who do you see getting the first chance to replace him?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Phil Hughes was the toast of baseball through May as he appeared nearly unhittable.  He was 6-1 over the first two months to go along with a 2.72 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 57 strikeouts over 56.2 innings of work. 

Over the next four months, however, he was not nearly as effective.

For the entire season, he posted the following line:

18 Wins
176.1 Innings
4.19 ERA
1.25 WHIP
146 Strikeouts (7.45 K/9)
58 Walks (2.96 BB/9)
.281 BABIP

It would be easy to attribute his overall ERA as tiring down the stretch, but that couldn’t be further from the truth.  In fact, after May, Hughes failed to post a sub-4.00 ERA in any month:

• June – 5.17 (31.1 innings)
• July – 5.52 (29.1 innings)
• August – 4.22 (32.0 innings)
• September – 4.85 (26.0 innings)

It is easy to look at the wins and get distracted from the other numbers, but you would be doing yourself a major disservice.  Yes, Hughes has a significant upside in wins thanks to playing for the Yankees. 

He won 11 games over the final four months of the year, despite his struggles on the mound.  However, it is not something that we can simply count on. 

His effectiveness in general just wasn’t there.  After striking out over a batter an inning in the first two months, he fell to 6.72 K/9 over the final four months.  His ERA was at 4.91 and his WHIP was a pedestrian 1.34.

So, which is it?

For one, his home run rate was excessive towards the end of the season, at 1.59 from June on.  Yankees Stadium (where he posted a HR/9 of 1.69) or not, that number is excessive. 

Yes, his fly ball rate is on the higher side (47.4 percent for the season), but you would expect him to improve upon this number.

There is also hope in the strikeout rate, given his career minor league strikeout rate of 10.01.  Is he going to be that good?  No, but his mark over the first two months is significantly more believable then over the final four. 

With that said, the main question comes down to if Hughes can actually succeed in the AL East or not.  Let’s take a look at how he did in 2010:

• Baltimore – 2-0, 2.41 ERA over 18.2 innings
• Boston – 2-1, 3.60 ERA over 25.0 innings
• Toronto – 1-2, 7.29 ERA over 21.0 innings
• Tampa Bay – 1-2, 4.74 ERA over 19.0 innings

With Boston improving their lineup significantly, these numbers certainly are cause for concern and could help to limit his value.  How much so?  Let’s take a look at how I’d project him for 2011:

180.0 IP, 16 W, 3.95 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 160 K (8.00 K/9), 62 BB (3.10 BB/9)

His control is solid and should help him maintain a solid WHIP (my projected number is based on a BABIP of .299).  Assuming he can improve on the number of home runs he allows (the projection has a HR/9 of 1.10), he should be able to post a sub-4.00 ERA.

However, I would temper your expectations.  It is easy to look at the wins and the first two months of ’10 and get excited about a “future ace.”  The last four months of the season should certainly open your eyes. 

He does have the stuff to be a special pitcher, but he calls the toughest division in baseball home, as well as pitching in a hitter’s paradise. You couple those two things, and there is as good of a chance that he will struggle.

He absolutely is usable in all formats, but consider him more of a mid-rotation option and not a fantasy ace heading into 2010.

What are your thoughts on Hughes?  How good could he be in 2011?  Is he someone that you are targeting on draft day?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

To wrap up my initial positional rankings, let’s take a look at my Top 30 outfielders for the upcoming season. 

Outfield is not quite as deep at the top of the rankings, but the positioned is littered with young players on the precipice breaking out. Players like Jason Heyward, Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus and Mike Stanton could easily take the next step in 2011 and become some of the best options at the position. 

Where do they stand entering the year? Let’s take a look:

1. Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers
2. Carlos Gonzalez – Colorado Rockies
3. Carl Crawford – Boston Red Sox
4. Matt Holliday – St. Louis Cardinals
5. Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers
7. Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates
8. Alex Rios – Chicago White Sox
9. Andre Ethier – Los Angeles Dodgers
10. Hunter Pence – Houston Astros
11. Adam Dunn – Detroit Tigers
12. Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds
13. Shin-Soo Choo – Cleveland Indians
14. Jason Heyward – Atlanta Braves
15. Nelson Cruz – Texas Rangers
16. Colby Rasmus – St. Louis Cardinals
17. Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks
18. Mike Stanton – Florida Marlins
19. Jose Bautista – Toronto Blue Jays
20. Curtis Granderson – New York Yankees
21. Jayson Werth – Washington Nationals
22. Jacoby Ellsbury – Boston Red Sox
23. Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners
24. Chris Young – Arizona Diamondbacks
25. Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies
26. B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays
27. Corey Hart – Milwaukee Brewers
28. Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles
29. Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
30. Carlos Quentin – Chicago White Sox

Thoughts:

• Many people want to take Hamilton’s 2010 performance (.359, 32 HR, 100 RBI) and turn him into a Top 5 outfielder and a first round pick. The problem is he is constantly battling injuries and his 2010 numbers were buoyed by a .390 BABIP. Honestly, it’s hard to imagine him coming close to replicating his success. For more on why I do not believe he is a first round pick, click here.
• Before you disregard Pence’s place as a Top 10 outfielder, keep in mind that he should be the Astros’ full-time No. 3 hitter in 2011. In 292 AB there in 2010, he hit .288 with 13 HR, 49 RBI, 43 R and 9 SB. It is realistic to think that he will push 90/90 again (overall, he hit .282 with 25 HR, 91 RBI, 93 R and 18 SB) and there is a shot that he reaches 100/100.
• Will Choo continue to post big BABIP? Over the past three seasons, he has posted marks of .367, .370 and .347. If he regresses there, his average could struggle, though I still view him as a great OF2 thanks to his consistent 20/20 production. To view my projection of him for 2011, click here.
• I may be pushing Stanton a little higher than most, but he possesses a skill that is becoming more and more rare in the game today: Power. He hit 22 HR in 396 AB in the majors (plus 21 in 240 AB at Double-A).  There’s a very realistic chance that he approaches 40 in his sophomore campaign.
• Does anyone really believe that Jose Bautista is going to be able to replicate his 2010 success?
• Ichiro Suzuki can hit, that’s not in debate. He also showed that he can still run, stealing 42 bases in 2010. The problem is that a lot of his value came from scoring runs, which he has struggled with the past two seasons. Formerly a perennial 100+ run option, he has scored 162 runs total since 2009. That’s what happens when you hit atop an anemic offense.

What are your thoughts on these rankings? Whose too high? Whose too low?

Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Brad Hawpe has found a new home in San Diego, though it isn’t to man the outfield. 

Hawpe has been tabbed by the Padres to help fill the gaping hole left by the trade that sent Adrian Gonzalez to Boston. At the major league level, he’s appeared in just nine games at the position, though he did log 215 games there while in the minors.

His glove will be a question, at least early on, but the bigger issue for fantasy owners will be his bat. 

From 2006-2009, while a member of the Rockies, Hawpe didn’t hit below .283 while averaging nearly 25 home runs per year. Unfortunately, last year he hit just .245 with nine HR spending time with the Rockies and Rays.

The average is a fair concern, considering his BABIP over his four strong seasons:

• 2006 – .348
• 2007 – .341
• 2008 – .341
• 2009 – .356

It’s not hard to imagine that luck running out, sooner or later, though the consistency has to make you think it is believable. 

Last season, he posted a .308 mark. The problem is, if the luck isn’t going to be there, his average is going to fall. For his career, he has posted a 26.8% strikeout rate (a mark he has been above the past three seasons). 

Over the past five years, he has hit .310 at Petco Park, with five HR in 129 AB. That’s promising, but he also had a .372 BABIP.

Even in the vast expanses of Petco Park, we are probably better off expecting an average around .270, as opposed to anything above that.

The power is also a concern. It is hard to imagine him returning to the 25+ HR range, considering what will now be his home ballpark. In that ballpark, he has hit a home run about once every 26 AB. In 450 AB, that would put him at 17 HR. 

Granted, he could really shine on the road, but like with the average, expectations need to be tempered.

It may sound like I am being extremely negative of Hawpe, but the fact of the matter is that after last season it is tough to go into 2011 expecting him to return to his 2006-2009 levels. With that said, in five outfielder formats he is going to be a player worth gambling on. 

Even if he does hit .270 with 17 HR, he is going to have some value as a depth option, if nothing else. Knowing that he has the potential to exceed those numbers, he’s a better late round option then many others.

What are your thoughts on Hawpe? Is he a player you’d draft? Why or why not?

Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Josh Hamilton had a monster 2010 campaign. 

No one can take that away from him, but should fantasy owners base an early round selection on that success? Many people actually believe that he is good enough to select in the first round of 2011 drafts. 

Is it justified? Let’s take a look:

2010 Stat Line:

518 At Bats
.359 Batting Average (186 Hits)
32 Home Runs
100 RBI
95 Runs
8 Stolen Bases
.411 On Base Percentage
.633 Slugging Percentage
.390 Batting Average on Balls in Play

2010 Season Overview:

Obviously, everything was a success for him in 2010, outside of the stolen base total and his health.

The stolen bases are something that has never been there, with a career high of nine. There’s no reason to think that he is going to make any significant contribution for you there.

The injuries have been a common discussion throughout Hamilton’s career. Last year, he stayed healthy enough to make significant contributions, but that isn’t always the case. In 2007, he was limited to 90 games (298 AB); in 2009, it was just 89 games (336 AB). 

Can we say, without a shadow of a doubt, that Hamilton will stay healthy enough to contribute in 2011? Obviously, when healthy he’s a tremendous option, but his continuous struggles with staying in the lineup drapes a huge dark cloud over him.

The other major concern from 2010 is his BABIP: Flat out, it is unsustainable. 

There is little question that his luck rate is going to fall, probably significantly, bringing his average with it. The prior three years he had posted averages of .292, .304 and .268, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see him fall back into the .300 range.

Does he look quite as appealing in the early rounds without such a lofty average?

What To Expect In 2011:

Assuming he can stay healthy, Hamilton should once again be a force in the middle of a high-powered Rangers lineup. With or without Vladimir Guerrero, the team boasts a lineup that can score runs in droves, with Elvis Andrus & Michael Young setting the table. 

Hamilton’s power is very much for real, and another 30 HR campaign can easily be in his future. 

The runs and RBI should also be about on par with his 2010 numbers. Obviously, a fall in average means less times on base, so a small regression in runs scored is possible (85-90 range).

He also could see a small drop in RBI, but it would likely be negligible.  If he exceeds 500 AB, he should have 90 RBI, at least, with 100+ possible.

As I mentioned in the 2010 Overview section, an average around .300 and single digit stolen bases are also likely in his future.
 

Conclusion:

Obviously, we are talking about one of the elite offensive players in the game, though there are three things that keep him from being a first round pick in my mind:

1. Concerns over his health
2. A huge regression potentially coming in his average
3. The fact that he’s not a five category performer

Yes, he is a great player at a fairly weak position, but in the first round I want a player who is more of a sure thing. There are too many concerns and question marks hanging over Hamilton, dropping him a few notches outside the first round.

What are your thoughts of Hamilton? Is he someone you would pick in the first round? Why or why not?

Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out our previous first round pick analysis articles:

• Ryan Braun
• Robinson Cano
• Prince Fielder
• Ryan Howard

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Some people prefer to wait until late in their draft to acquire their fantasy closers, figuring that you can take some risks while also finding saves on the waiver wire throughout the season. 

Others like to use early- to mid-round picks in order to get an elite closer or two, hopefully stabilizing their standing in saves.  Which strategy is right is a debate for another day, but let’s look at how I currently rank the Top 15 closers heading into 2011:

1. Heath Bell – San Diego Padres
2. Brian Wilson – San Francisco Giants
3. Joakim Soria – Kansas City Royals
4. Neftali Feliz – Texas Rangers
5. Mariano Rivera – New York Yankees
6. Rafael Soriano – Free Agent
7. Jonathan Broxton – Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Andrew Bailey – Oakland Athletics
9. Jonathan Papelbon – Boston Red Sox
10. Francisco Rodriguez – New York Mets
11. Carlos Marmol – Chicago Cubs
12. Joe Nathan – Minnesota Twins
13. Huston Street – Colorado Rockies
14. Jose Valverde – Detroit Tigers
15. J.J. Putz – Arizona Diamondbacks

Thoughts:

• Joe Nathan is a real wild card, but we all know what he is capable of doing. If he proves that he is healthy in Spring Training, he could easily perform as a top 10, and maybe even a top 5 option. Since 2004 he has had one season with an ERA above 2.10 and one season with a WHIP above 0.98. To say that he has the potential to be one of the elite and a steal on draft day is an understatement.
• Will the Rangers move Feliz to the rotation? I can’t see it after his success, but time will tell at this point.
• J.J. Putz will get an opportunity to rediscover his glory as a closer in Arizona. As long as he keeps his control in under (as he did in 2010), he should be a solid option as a second closer for fantasy owners.
• Mariano Rivera is the best closer ever to play the game, we all know that. At this point, is anyone really waiting for him to finally regress due to his age? He’s one of the elite and he should be considered as such until he finally decides to hang up his spikes.
• If you draft Jonathan Papelbon, you may want to grab Daniel Bard for your bench, just in case. I know Bobby Jenks was brought in, but Bard is still the likely replacement should something happen.
• If it wasn’t for his strikeout potential, I wouldn’t go near Carlos Marmol. However, he could easily lead all relief pitchers in strikeouts, which certainly helps to offset any potential problems his walk rate brings with him.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Whose too high?  Whose too low?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First-Round Breakdown

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Some would say that Wilson Ramos, who the Nationals acquired in 2010 from the Minnesota Twins as part of the Matt Capps trade, is simply holding the catcher’s spot warm until Derek Norris is ready to take the reins.  Maybe that’s true, maybe it’s not, but you had better believe that Ramos is going to do everything possible in 2010 to prove that he is a viable everyday catcher in the major leagues.

After being blocked by Joe Mauer in Minnesota, Ramos should enter 2011 sharing time with Ivan Rodriguez behind the plate.  However, with Rodriguez now 39-years-old, you had better believe that Ramos, sooner or later, will be given the opportunity to claim the job as all his own.

He got a look in both Minnesota and Washington in 2010, posting the following line:

• 79 At Bats
• .278 Batting Average (22 Hits)
• One Home Run
• Five RBI
• Five Runs
• No Stolen Bases
• .305 On Base Percentage
• .405 Slugging Percentage
• .318 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Obviously, it is too small of a sample size to draw any significant conclusions from.  In 1,479 minor league at-bats, he posted a .285 average with 39 HR, 219 RBI and 182 R.  That is a much bigger sampling than we can use.

His career-high in home runs came in 2008 at High-A ball, when he had 13 HR in 452 AB (about a home run once every 35 AB).  For his minor league career, his home run rate is about once every 38 at bats.  Clearly, his power isn’t going to make him overly attractive to fantasy owners.

However, that wouldn’t be completely accurate.  Baseball America, who ranked him as the Nationals fifth-best prospect heading into 2011 (Norris was second), said this:

“Ramos has good loft and leverage in his swing, giving him a chance to hit for solid-average or slightly better power in time. He does get pull-happy, and he must improve his contact rate and patience at the plate. Conditioning has been an issue for Ramos in the past, and he’s a well below-average runner.”

That should give us hope that maybe he could develop into a 15-20 HR hitter, but he’s clearly not quite there yet.

He’s a catcher so you shouldn’t expect much speed, which goes without saying.  Still, only five runs in 79 AB in the major leagues?  He’s actually never even scored more than 50 in a minor league season.  That’s not very inspiring, nor is the fact that he’s not going to hit anywhere in the lineup that brings significant run scoring ability.  Given the time share, under 40 runs scored may be a given.

Yes, he has a decent contact bat, though he still posted a 17.71 percent strikeout rate over his minor league career.  He also didn’t draw many walks, with a 5.68 percent walk rate.  Are these really numbers that are going to get fantasy owners excited?

Yes, he has potential and, at 23-years-old, he has plenty of time to realize it.  Still, fantasy owners simply looking towards 2011 would like to have seen a little bit more in order to depend on him.  Even in two-catcher formats, he’s a huge gamble.  He just hasn’t shown enough and he is going to be sharing time with Rodriguez.

If you want to grab him as a depth option, that’s fine.  Unfortunately, at this point, that’s about all he’s worth.

What are your thoughts on Ramos?  Is there any chance in him developing into a more attractive option in 2011?  Do you have any interest in?

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:

• Archer, Chris
• Britton, Zach
• Iglesias, Jose
• Kipnis, Jason
• Lawrie, Brett
• Mesoraco, Devin
• Pineda, Michael
• Revere, Ben
• Taylor, Michael

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Since I first did this list, several catchers have changed teams (while the biggest name was Victor Martinez, players like John Buck, Miguel Olivo and others also packed their bags).  Let’s take a look at the impact of these moves on our rankings for the upcoming year:

1. Joe Mauer—Minnesota Twins
2. Victor Martinez—Detroit Tigers
3. Brian McCann—Atlanta Braves
4. Carlos Santana—Cleveland Indians
5. Buster Posey—San Francisco Giants
6. Miguel Montero—Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Kurt Suzuki—Oakland Athletics
8. Matt Wieters—Baltimore Orioles
9. Jorge Posada—New York Yankees
10. Geovany Soto—Chicago Cubs
11. Mike Napoli—Los Angeles Angels
12. Chris Iannetta—Colorado Rockies
13. J.P. Arencibia—Toronto Blue Jays
14. Yadier Molina—St. Louis Cardinals
15. Miguel Olivo—Seattle Mariners

Thoughts

• John Buck falls off the rankings, as there is little chance that he replicates his success from 2010. In particular, the average is likely to plummet, as he posted a BABIP of .335 (he hit .281). While he has power, he doesn’t have enough upside.
• One of the players who does have upside is Arencibia, who should now be in line for everyday at-bats in Toronto. He absolutely mashed at Triple-A, hitting .301 with 32 HR in 412 AB. Yes, strikeouts are going to be a problem (making a high average unlikely), but with the amount of power he could potentially hit for, he’s an intriguing option to take a flier on if you missed out on the bigger names. He could easily be a poor man’s Mike Napoli in 2011 if given enough of an opportunity.
• The Carlos Santana-Buster Posey debate is not one that is going to end quickly. I’ll address it in the near future, so make sure to keep checking back.
• With Miguel Olivo out of Colorado, Chris Iannetta should now step into regular playing time. That is, he will if the Rockies finally decide to turn everyday duties over to him. We’ve played this song and dance before, and it always ends up with Iannetta somehow finding his way onto the bench. His upside makes him extremely intriguing, but be prepared to be disappointed.
• Speaking of Olivo, with regular playing time in Seattle he continues to hold value. He’s not a sexy name, but we know what we are going to get from him.
• With Jorge Posada clearly moving to DH with the Russell Martin signing, he gets a boost in value. The extra at-bats certainly should help him in the counting stats. His numbers could easily be similar to that of Matt Wieters and Geovany Soto; the major difference is that Soto may not be able to score many runs (only 47 in ‘10 and career high is 66). Without that, Soto becomes the worst option of the three. Wieters, however, has the most upside of the group given his age and minor league pedigree.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

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Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

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