Kuzul

It has been a while since we checked in on the players who disappointed fantasy owners in 2010, so today let’s check in on the 2010 performance of Ben Zobrist.  Yes, his eligibility all around the diamond (he played at least 14 games at 1B, 2B and OF in 2010) helped a little bit, but it was far from enough.  Does multi-position eligibility really make up for these numbers:

541 At Bats
.238 Batting Average (129 Hits)
10 Home Runs
75 RBI
77 Runs
24 Stolen Bases
.346 On Base Percentage
.353 Slugging Percentage
.273 Batting Average on Balls in Play

In order to look at Zobrist, you almost have to decide which side of the fence you fall on.  Do you believe his 2010 breakout was for real (.297, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 91 R, 17 SB) or do you believe that he performed over his head?  Even if you believe the latter, you couldn’t have expected such a big regression in 2011.

His HR/FB seemingly fell off a cliff in 2010 after emerging the prior two years:

• 2008 – 17.4% (198 AB)
• 2009 – 17.5% (501 AB)
• 2010 – 6.0% (541 AB)

That’s a huge decline, to say the least.  His fly ball rate was consistent from 2009 to 2010, and if he can maintain that you would have to expect him to regain some power, even if not back to his 2008 and 2009 levels.  At the worst, you would have to think that he could reach the 16-20 HR range in 2011, which the Rays will desperately need.  With Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena no longer part of the lineup, Zobrist is likely to join Evan Longoria as one of the key factors in driving in runs.

The power outage also helped to explain his fall in the average department, though it wasn’t the only factor.  Obviously, fewer home runs lead to more balls put in play.  That alone is going to help lead to a lower average, especially when you have such a big outage.

Couple that fall with a drop of over 50 points in his BABIP (he was at .326 in ‘09), and that certainly helps explain his awful average.  However, there certainly are plenty of reasons to think that he will post a significantly better average in 2011:

• 1. He has a great eye at the plate – Over the past two seasons he has posted walk rates of 15.2% and 14.0%. In fact, the latter number put him in a tie for seventh among players who qualified for the batting title.
• 2. He does not strikeout an excessive amount – In 2010 his strikeout rate was 19.8%. While that’s not a great mark, it certainly could be significantly worse. If he can continually put the ball in play, an improvement is bound to happen.

He may not close in on a .300 average, but .270 or better would appear to be a lock.

Throw in the speed that he added in 2010 and you are looking at an extremely solid option among 2B.  Yes, there are risks involved, especially given his struggles, but he could go 20/20 with a .270+ average.  He also is likely to be a key component in the middle of the Rays lineup, meaning he could go at least 80/80, and possibly push 90/90 once again.

That’s a whole lot of upside.  He’s going to fall significantly from where he was being drafted a year ago (according to Mock Draft Central his ADP is currently 124.72), really adding to his appeal.  He is going to enter the season with eligibility at 2B and OF in all formats (and maybe 1B as well), just increasing his value.  With multi-position eligibility and a ton of upside, you have to like betting on him to rebound in 2011.

What are your thoughts on Zobrist?  What kind of numbers do you think he could put up?  Is he a player you’d target on draft day?

Make sure to check out our review of other players who struggled in 2010 and their prospects for a rebound:

• Beckett, Josh
• Hill, Aaron
• Lind, Adam
• Geinke, Zack

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It was a tremendous 2010 campaign for Clay Buchholz, who emerged as a great fantasy option despite pitching in the ultra-competitive AL East.  Now owners have to decide if they think he can replicate these impressive numbers, or if a regression is in his future:

17 Wins
173.2 Innings
2.33 ERA
1.20 WHIP
120 Strikeouts (6.22 K/9)
67 Walks (3.47 BB/9)
.265 BABIP

The ERA was sparkling, though you can easily attribute that partially to his luck metrics.  Not only was his BABIP on the lucky side, so was his strand rate (79.0 percent).  

In fact, among pitchers who qualified for the ERA title, Buchholz’ strand rate was the eighth best in the league. Is this something that we can realistically expect him to replicate?  Probably not.

A fall in his BABIP and strand rate will certainly hurt his ERA.  You also have to wonder if he can repeat his performance within the AL East:

• Baltimore – 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 15.0 IP
• Blue Jays – 3-0, 0.41 ERA, 22.0 IP
• Rays – 1-1, 0.98 ERA, 18.1 IP
• Yankees – 1-1, 5.84 ERA, 12.1 IP

While he did struggle against the Yankees, he was lights out against the other three teams.  While the Rays lineup will look significantly different in 2011, the Blue Jays can score runs and the Orioles have taken strides to improve their lineup.

It is hard to imagine seeing these types of minuscule numbers for a second consecutive season.

Of course, his likely decrease in luck will also affect his WHIP, which is seemingly a lock to increase.  Yes, he could improve on his walk rate (his career minor league rate was at 2.54), but an increase in BABIP is obviously going to lead to more hits.

However, there is something that will help to offset that.

While Buchholz may not have been sparkling in 2010 in the strikeout department, there is reason to believe that he could take a significant step forward this season. 

Over his minor league career he posted a K/9 of 10.23, including an 8.86 at Triple-A in 2008 (43.2 IP) and an 8.9 at Triple-A in 2009 (99.0 IP). 

Is he going to suddenly evolve into a pitcher who is going to strike out over eight batters per nine innings?  It’s not likely, considering that he had more than seven strikeouts in a game just three times, the last of which came on June 15. 

Would it be a surprise to see him improve his strikeout rate by at least one per nine innings?  Not at all.

Let’s see how it all adds up for 2011:

195.0 IP, 17 W, 3.46 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 162 K (7.48 K/9), 68 BB (3.14 BB/9)

Those numbers certainly would put him in the discussion of the Top 20 starting pitchers, and while I feel like he belongs there (click here for my recent rankings) it certainly is a fine line between 15 and 25. 

Clearly, with the upgraded lineup, his wins potential is significantly better than a lot of other pitchers out there, helping to give him an edge.

While his luck will likely decrease, an improvement in strikeouts will certainly go a long way in helping to offset that. 

He’s not going to replicate last year’s surprising success, but he should continue to be one of the better options in all formats.  As a SP2, he certainly should have plenty of value.

What are your thoughts on Buchholz?  How good could he be in 2011?  What type of numbers do you see him posting?

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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According to ESPNs Buster Olney (click here for the article) the Royals have traded Zack Greinke and SS Yuniesky Betancourt to the Milwaukee Brewers for SS Alcides Escobar, OF Lorenzo Cain, P Jake Odorizzi and P Jeremy Jeffress.

The Brewers paid a hefty price, but certainly got their money’s worth.  With a one-two punch of Greinke and Yovani Gallardo at the top of the rotation, with Shaun Marcum filling the No. 3 spot, the team suddenly has a formidable rotation that should help them compete in the NL Central.  It certainly would appear that they are going for it in 2011, making a potential Prince Fielder trade significantly less likely (unless they are out of it at the trading deadline).

Greinke would’ve been considered among the Top 20 starting pitchers if he spent the year in Kansas City, but moving to the NL certainly helps his value.  His K/9 fell to 7.40 last season, but a rebound to 8.00 or better could easily be in the cards now. 

You also would’ve expected an improvement from last year’s 4.17 ERA (he did suffer from some bad luck, with a 65.3% strand rate), but a move to NL should make it a lock and potentially significantly so.  We have more strikeouts, a better ERA and a significantly better opportunity for wins.  What’s not to like?  He came it at No. 17 in our most recent starting pitcher rankings (click here to view), but certainly moves up a few spots now.  Consider him a low-end SP1/high-end SP2 now that he’s found a home in the NL.

As for the other players moved in the deal, Escobar figures to get the biggest boost in value.  He leaves a place that rarely gave him a chance to run (as well as hit him at the bottom of the order), to go to a team where he will get a shot to leadoff and show off his wheels.  Remember, he had 42 SB in 430 AB at Triple-A in 2009, before attempting just 14 SB in 506 AB for the Brewers last season.

The Royals are a rebuilding team looking for a sparkplug at the top of the order and Escobar certainly brings that potential.  They have no illusions of competing in 2011, so he should be given every chance to grow into the role, where he could thrive for years to come.  He was a Top 15 option prior to the trade (click here to view), but now could easily be considered a low-end Top 10 option and is likely usable in all formats.

Cain will join a crowded outfield, with Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur.  Jarrod Dyson, who was thought to be in the mix for the centerfield job and leadoff spot is probably now ticketed back to Triple-A.  Cabrera and Cain could share time in center, but we all know Cabrera is not the greatest of offensive threats.  Cain at least brings some speed (33 SB across three levels in ‘10) and could be a low-end option in five-outfielder formats if he wins the job outright (as he should).  He certainly brings more to the table and should see plenty of action.

Odorizzi was in Single-A in 2010 going 7-3 with a 3.43 ERA and 135 K in 120.2 innings.  Prior to 2010 Baseball America ranked him as the Brewers ninth best prospect, saying “His free and easy delivery and good extension allow his heater to get in on hitters quickly, and it features good sink and armside run. He also features a curveball that’s a plus pitch at times. He throws strikes and shows good poise and competitiveness.”  The 20-year old is still a ways away, but he has plenty of potential.

Jeffress has had problems with illegal drugs in the past and has been transitioned to the bullpen, but throws the ball extremely hard (has been said that he’s hit 100 mph with his fastball).  He posted a 2.70 ERA with 8 K in 10 innings for the Brewers in 2010 and figures to slide right into the Royals pen.  Could he develop into a back-end type option?  In time, but I wouldn’t expect him to get there yet meaning he is not likely to have fantasy appeal in 2011.

Both teams got significant value, with Greinke and Escobar likely being the biggest winners.  What are your thoughts?  Who won?  Who lost?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The surprising decision of Cliff Lee signing with the Phillies ultimately had a major impact on our early starting pitcher rankings.  He always was going to be considered one of the better options in the league for 2011, but now he appears to be a borderline Top 5 option.  Let’s see where he ultimately falls, as well as all the rest in our updated rankings.

1. Roy Halladay—Philadelphia Phillies
2. Felix Hernandez—Seattle Mariners
3. Tim Lincecum—San Francisco Giants
4. Jon Lester—Boston Red Sox
5. CC Sabathia—New York Yankees
6. Adam Wainwright—St. Louis Cardinals
7. Cliff Lee—Philadelphia Phillies
8. Clayton Kershaw—Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Ubaldo Jimenez—Colorado Rockies
10. Justin Verlander—Detroit Tigers
11. Jered Weaver—Los Angeles Angels
12. Francisco Liriano—Minnesota Twins
13. Josh Johnson—Florida Marlins
14. Chris Carpenter—St. Louis Cardinals
15. Yovani Gallardo—Milwaukee Brewers
16. Cole Hamels—Philadelphia Phillies
17. Zack Greinke—Kansas City Royals
18. Clay Buchholz—Boston Red Sox
19. Mat Latos—San Diego Padres
20. David Price—Tampa Bay Rays

Thoughts

• Cliff Lee posted strong numbers while a member of the Phillies, with a 3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 8.36 K/9 over 79.2 innings. Over a full season, that would be his best strikeout rate of his career and while he may not match that mark, seeing him approach the 7.8-8.0 range now appears realistic. Over 220 innings, that’s at least 190 strikeouts. When coupled with his stellar control and good potential for wins, he becomes one of the best options in the league. Jumping back to the NL, he is a certain SP1 now.
• Injury concerns based on the number of innings he threw in 2010 is why Mat Latos fell a few spots in the rankings, but I am not going to drop him out of the Top 20 because of it. All we have heard since Tim Lincecum emerged was that he was going to miss time due to injury and it still hasn’t really happened yet. There’s always a risk when drafting pitchers, and you don’t want to bypass someone simply because of it. As we progress through the offseason things may change slightly, but he’s certainly going to remain a SP2.
• We all know that Gallardo is a pretty big risk, thus far being unable to put it together for an entire season. Still, he has as much talent as anyone in the league and has the potential to have a breakout campaign. He’s a risk, but one I would love to take.
• Is Dan Haren a Top 20 pitcher while in the AL? He’s certainly right on the cusp, but given his past second-half struggles and spending a full year in the AL, I have him just on the outside looking in.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

I have always had one major concern with Shin-Soo Choo and that was his average.  Those concerns came courtesy of a consistently elevated BABIP, but back-to-back 20/20 seasons certainly help to assuage these concerns.  It’s hard not to like an outfielder who posted the following numbers in 2010:

550 At-Bats
.300 Batting Average (165 Hits)
22 Home Runs
90 RBI
81 Runs
22 Stolen Bases
.401 On-Base Percentage
.484 Slugging Percentage
.347 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The average concerns continue to be legitimate.  He’s had at least 300 at-bats in a season for the past three years, posting the following BABIP:

• 2008: .367
• 2009: .370
• 2010: .347

Clearly, his stolen base totals show that he has speed, so maybe he can legitimately continue to post these elevated marks, but it’s certainly no guarantee.  Yes, he did show an improvement in his strikeout rate at 21.5 percent (he had been at 24.6 percent and 25.9 percent the prior two years), but if the luck decreases he will no longer be a .300 hitter.

Is he going to regress all the way down to the .260’s?  Not likely, but he certainly could fall to the .280 range or so, especially if the improvement in strikeouts is a façade.

It’s hard to argue with the rest of the numbers.  He’s likely to join Carlos Santana in the middle of the order, meaning there should be ample opportunities for him to continue to both drive in and score runs.  He was solid with runners in scoring position (.311, eight HR, 66 RBI), as he also was in 2009 (.287, six HR, 66 RBI). 

If both Grady Sizemore and Santana can return healthy, things only look all the more appealing.  The top of the lineup would certainly appear solid, and could be a force for several years to come.

The power has come based off of realistic HR/FB (which in 2010 was at 14.6 percent).  His fly-ball rate has been as consistent as possible (36.1 percent, 36.1 percent and 35.0 percent).  There is just no reason to think that anything will be different in 2011 or beyond.

With all that in mind, let’s take a look at what I would expect from him in 2011:

.285 (164-575), 21 HR, 90 RBI, 85 R, 24 SB, .341 BABIP, .381 OBP, .468 SLG

Those are solid numbers for any player and would mean that Choo would be a Top 20 outfielder at year’s end.  While it’s not likely that he takes the next step and becomes an OF1, he’s going to continue to be a solid option in all formats.  He’s an OF2 and is certainly someone you should be targeting on draft day with his ability to contribute in all five categories.

What are your thoughts?  How good could he be?  What type of numbers would you expect from him?

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

For weeks, the baseball world has been waiting on the edge of their seats for the decision by Cliff Lee.  The assumption had long been that Lee would milk his free agency for every last dollar, likely spurning the Texas Rangers, who he had helped lead to their for World Series just weeks earlier, for the New York Yankees. 

The Rangers held out hope that they could sway him, not only with comparable dollars but also with the proximity to his Arkansas home.  At the end of the day, both teams have been left with a huge void at the top of their rotations.

Indeed, there was a “mystery” team in the mix as rumors indicated.  Lee apparently enjoyed his brief stay in Philadelphia so much, as well as the allure of pitching in potentially the best rotation in baseball, to spurn both the Yankees and Rangers.  The appeal was so strong that he took less guaranteed money in the process.

The Phillies likely have some creative bookkeeping in their future in order to make things work, if it is trading away Joe Blanton or Raul Ibanez or another move we have not yet heard about. 

Right now, those are worries for another day. 

Instead, Phillie fans rejoice what should have come to fruition 12 months earlier.  They have their dynamic one-two punch of Lee and Roy Halladay atop the rotation, and have added Roy Oswalt in the process to make up for their previous gaffe.  Of course, that doesn’t mention the presence of Cole Hamels to boot.

From a fantasy perspective, this does little to change Lee’s value.  Sure, the move back to the NL may aid his numbers slightly, but we all had a good idea of the performance he was going to put on.  That’s not the story for today.  The impact on the baseball world and what it does to two organizations are much more pressing.

With Andy Pettitte’s future in limbo, the Yankees are left with CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes and a black hole for the final three spots.  Can A.J. Burnett rebound?  Can they really trust Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre or some other prospect at the backend of the rotation?

The Rangers, meanwhile, have long been a team looking for pitching.  They paid a hefty price in Justin Smoak and other prospects to secure their ace for three brief months.  Were the rewards worth the premium they paid?  They put themselves in position to challenge for a World Series title, so you have to say it was, but that doesn’t bring solace to Ranger fans today.

This isn’t the end of the story.  I wouldn’t expect either team to stop their pursuit of rotation help as they were both clearly willing to pay a hefty sum for an anchor to their pitching staff.  We will hear the ludicrous (Felix Hernandez or Francisco Liriano).  We will hear the more reasonable (Matt Garza or Zack Greinke or Ricky Nolasco).  We will hear about reclamation projects (Brandon Webb).  We will hear about everything in between

Today, however, is not a happy day for Yankee or Ranger fans.  In Philadelphia, things could not look any better.  They are an aging ball club with a small window left for success.  Yes, Lee is a 32-year old pitcher with back problems.  Maybe in three or four years they will regret the contract they just handed out, but in the here and now they can rejoice.  They have positioned themselves for another run at a World Series title and put the rest of the NL on notice.

While the rest of the baseball world struggles with accepting the fallout from this stunning development, the fans in Philly are getting ready to celebrate what many will say is the inevitable.  Luckily, baseball isn’t played on paper, though that certainly is a tough idea to accept.

Make sure to check out Rotoprofessor’s early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Nick Markakis was supposed to be the one middle of the order option that fantasy owners could depend on from the Baltimore Orioles.  Unfortunately, all that we got was a major disappointment. 

Is it something that we should have seen coming?  That’s debatable.

Now, the $64,000 question is if we can expect a rebound in 2011.  Before we can answer that question, we first need to look at what he did in 2010:

629 At Bats
.297 Batting Average (187 Hits)
12 Home Runs
60 RBI
79 Runs
7 Stolen Bases
.370 On Base Percentage
.436 Slugging Percentage
.331 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The average was consistent with what he has done throughout his five-year career, as he has always been between .291 and .306.  That’s an extremely solid number and one that, at this point, we have no reason to be skeptical about. 

After that, however, things took a dramatic turn for the worse.  The power has been on the decline since his breakout 2007 campaign.  Let’s take a look at his home run totals, as well as his HR/FB for the past four years:

• 2007 – 23 HR, 11.6% HR/FB
• 2008 – 20 HR, 12.6% HR/FB
• 2009 – 18 HR, 8.0% HR/FB
• 2010 – 12 HR, 6.1% HR/FB

No matter what you think of Markakis, you have to know that he has more power than this.  The problem came when he played away from Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 

Last season, he hit just four home runs on the road in 320 AB.  The prior three years, he had never hit fewer than eight.

Outside of that, you certainly can put a lot of the blame on the struggles of the Orioles lineup in general. 

They were 27th in the league in runs scored with just 613, better than only the Astros, Pirates and Mariners.  They were among the worst teams in on-base percentage.

A lot of the problems were centered on the injury to Brian Roberts.  He is the sparkplug that helps to make the offense go.  Without him, Markakis and the rest of the “thumpers” came up with the bases empty and little to accomplish.

Markakis was actually good with runners in scoring position, hitting .338.  Yes, you can argue that he had only one home run, which is true, but it didn’t really matter.  He still had 45 RBI in 136 AB.  What he needed was more opportunities.

Outside of the return of a healthy Brian Roberts, the Orioles are working hard to improve the power in the middle of the order.  With Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy in place, joining Markakis, Luke Scott and Adam Jones, the lineup certainly would appear to be more equipped to score runs. 

Yes, you want to say that the move is just a repetition of 2010, when they tried Garrett Atkins, but things are different.

While Hardy is trying to regain his value, Reynolds has never lost his power.  He still hit 32 HR in 2009 and is just a year removed from a 44-HR campaign.  He may strike out a ton, but he’s going to provide at least a little bit of protection for Markakis and others.

The bottom line with Markakis is that if you are looking for a 30-HR hitting outfielder, you are looking in the wrong place.  While we all hoped that he would develop into that, it clearly just is not what is going to happen. 

Does that make him an option that we shouldn’t be targeting?  Absolutely not, we just all need to know what we are buying into.

What you are going to get is a .300 hitter with 16-23 HR power and the potential to go 90/90, if not push 100/100 if the lineup around him is producing.  That certainly has value in all formats, doesn’t it? 

He’s not going to be a top outfielder, but he’s certainly a player I’m going to be targeting in all formats. 

While others may downgrade him for the poor season, I wouldn’t ignore him.  He’s likely to rebound and will have value.

What about you?  Is Markakis someone you would target in your drafts?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

For all the hype Robinson Cano had in 2010, when you compare his numbers from the past two years, the only major change was in his RBI.  As fantasy owners enter 2011 drooling over the numbers Cano posted just a year ago, they quickly forget that in 2009 he hit .320 with 25 home runs, 83 RBI and 103 runs.  Clearly, that’s not a statement that is meant to temper expectations in the least.  The fact of the matter is, with back-to-back exceptional seasons, Cano has now captured the crown as the best fantasy second baseman in baseball.

Is that enough to justify using a first-round selection on him?  Let’s take a look:

2010 Campaign

He hit .319 with 29 home runs, 109 RBI and 103 runs, showing success against both righties and lefties.  Against southpaws he hit .285 with 13 homers, 43 RBI and 40 runs. 

He was significantly better in the first half than the second.  In the first three months, his lowest average was .333.  In the second half, his highest average was .292.  That’s not to say that he was bad, as they always say baseball is a game of averages.

What Happened

The major change for Cano from 2009 to 2010 was where he hit in the lineup, which certainly helped lead to significantly more RBI opportunities.  In 2010 he had 518 at bats in the five spot, driving in 81 RBI (he also had 102 at bats hitting cleanup, with 28 RBI).  In 2009 he spent 412 at bats hitting sixth or seventh.  Clearly, the additional chances suited him well.

He also long had the tag of not being a “clutch player.”  In 2009 he hit .207 with runners in scoring position.  In 2008, while he hit .263, he had only one home run.  Last season he hit .322 with five home runs and 77 RBI.

It is noteworthy that of his 29 home runs, 18 of them came with the bases empty (he had six with a man on first as well as the five with runners in scoring position).  Granted, it’s not like he was overly lucky with RISP (.329 BABIP), but if he does have a decrease in luck, he may not be able to match the RBI total.

Is that really a “downside?”  Absolutely not, but it is just something worth noting.  The truth is, he’s a good enough hitter and the Yankees lineup is so strong, I wouldn’t worry about his RBI total.

Among 2B in ‘10, Cano ranked the following:

• Tied for second in home runs with Rickie Weeks (Dan Uggla led the way with 33)
• Second in runs (Rickie Weeks led the way with 112, though only four second basemen had as many as 100)
• First in RBI (Dan Uggla was first with 105, the only other second basemen with more than 83)
• Second in Average (Omar Infante was first at .321; only four second basemen with at least 400 at bats hit .300 or better)

Clearly, it’s hard to argue those numbers, isn’t it?

What To Expect in 2011

There is nothing in his numbers that give you any reason to think that he’s going to regress significantly.  Just look at some of the peripherals:

• .326 BABIP
• 36.5 percent fly-ball rate
• 19.3 percent line-drive rate
• 14.4 percent HR/FB
• 12.3 percent strikeout rate
• 8.2 percent walk rate

You want to argue that his fly-ball rate and HR/FB are greater than his career marks?  Well, he’s also just 28 years old, so the idea of adding power is not out of the ordinary.  In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him eclipse 30 in 2011.

The fact of the matter is that Cano has developed into one of the best hitters in baseball, not just one of the best second baseman.  The fact that he plays a weaker position only makes him all the more appealing.  Owning him gives you an advantage over all of your competitors, because few other players at his position bring average, power and the potential to go 100/100.

With the power of the Yankees lineup behind him, he should be a lock for the first round in all formats, and a player who should go in the middle of the round.

What are your thoughts?  Is Cano a first-round pick?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our previous first-round pick analysis articles:

• Ryan Braun
• Prince Fielder
• Ryan Howard

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

When the Oakland A’s acquired Michael Taylor as part of the Roy Halladay trade (he had a quick stop in Toronto before being shipped to Oakland in exchange for Brett Wallace), they thought they were acquiring a future star outfielder. 

At 6′6″, 260 pounds, the A’s expected Taylor’s power to continue to develop (he had hit .320 with 20 HR and 84 RBI in 428 AB in ‘09), but instead they got a player who regressed further than anyone could have imagined.

Playing in the homer-happy Pacific Coast League, Taylor struggled to the following line: 464 AB, .272 Batting Average (126 Hits), 6 HR, 78 RBI, 79 R, 16 SB, .348 OBP, .392 SLG, .328 BABIP.

Obviously, there is one glaring number we should be concerned with, but there are actually a lot of positives that should not be overlooked.  First is his eye at the plate, as he posted a 9.90 percent walk rate vs. a 19.83 percent strikeout rate.  Is that an elite mark?  No, but it is significantly better than many power hitting prospects.

At 24 years old (he turns 25 on December 19), it’s nice to see him able to make contact, while also take some walks.  Couple that with a believable BABIP, and you have to like the prospects of him hitting for a solid average, with or without power.

You also have to like his ability to drive in runs, despite the lack of home runs.  He tied for 19th in the PCL, though he was the only player with single-digit home runs and at least 75 RBI (Matt Miller of the Colorado Rockies had 81 RBI on 10 HR).  The fact that he was able to produce RBI without the power stroke shows that he was able to adapt.  Another good sign.

Then, for a man his size, he still managed to steal 16 bases in 21 attempts, while hitting six triples.  In 2009 he had 21 stolen bases and five triples.  He has some speed, and while he’s not going to be an elite stolen base option, the fact that he’ll contribute there significantly helps his value.

Now, we need to talk about the 800 pound gorilla in the room.  What happened to the power?  Instead of taking the next step forward, it seemed to all but disappear.  Unfortunately, nothing appears to have changed in the Arizona Fall League, with two home runs in 108 AB (however, he has six stolen bases and a 15.74 percent  strikeout rate).

So what happened?  Baseball America, who ranked him as Oakland’s 10th-best prospect heading into 2011, had this to say:

“A physical specimen, Taylor still hit balls out to all fields during batting practice but rarely carried that power over into games in 2010. Scouts wondered where his bat speed had gone, and he had issues with a dead start in his swing. Oakland worked to shorten his stroke and improve his angle to the ball.”

From that, it sounds like the A’s are working with him, and there has to be hope he can discover the stroke that everyone anticipated being there.  If that happened, you had better bet that Oakland finds a spot for him in the outfield (currently David DeJesus, Coco Crisp and Ryan Sweeney are set there).

I would fully anticipate him making his major league debut in 2011, and with his upside he should be on the radar of all fantasy owners.  Depending on your format, he likely will be worth drafting and stashing if you are in a keeper league and have the room.  Otherwise, especially in five outfielder formats, monitor the waiver wire.  When he gets his chance, he’ll likely be worth grabbing.

You have to believe that it’s just a matter of time before he puts it all together, and when he does, you have a perennial 20/20 threat on your hands.

What are your thoughts on Taylor?  Will he have value in 2011?  How good do you think he could be?

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:

• Archer, Chris
• Britton, Zach
• Iglesias, Jose
• Kipnis, Jason
• Lawrie, Brett
• Mesoraco, Devin
• Pineda, Michael
• Revere, Ben

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The past two days were extremely busy at the winter meetings, highlighted by some shocking developments.  Let’s take a look at everything that happened (for my thoughts on Days 1 & 2, click here and here): 

The Boston Red Sox Signed OF Carl Crawford

Talk about the rich getting richer.  All indications had been that Crawford was headed out to Los Angeles before the Red Sox swooped in with a seven-year, $142 million deal.  It is hard to figure exactly where Crawford fits into the lineup, though you have to figure he’ll hit either third or sixth at this point.

The bottom line is that the Red Sox lineup got so much deeper with the addition of Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.  Either way, the top six in the lineup features Crawford, Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz.  You will be hard-pressed to find a group with that much talent and that much potential to score runs.  All of their stocks went up just a little bit.

However, if Crawford does ultimately hit sixth you have to think that at least a little of his value will be lost.  He needs to be hitting in front of Gonzalez, Youkilis and Ortiz, where he will be able to utilize his speed and score a significant number of runs.  I have to believe the Red Sox will hit him third, but time will tell. 

The Baltimore Orioles Signed P Koji Uehara

When Alfredo Simon and Michael Gonzalez went down with injuries, the Orioles turned to Uehara to close out games and he responded with flying colors.  He posted a 2.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, showing great strikeout potential (11.25 K/9) and impeccable control (1.02 BB/9).  It’s hard to imagine him maintaining those types of numbers, but given the unknown in the Orioles bullpen he will likely get an opportunity to close once again. 

The strikeouts will likely fall.  The walks will probably rise slightly.  Still, he posted his success with a .317 BABIP, so a little more luck and the numbers would still be solid.  He’ll be worth owning in all formats, though it’s hard to call him a lock to close for the entire year.

The Padres Acquired SS Jason Bartlett from the Tampa Bay Rays for P Adam Russell and P Cesar Ramos

The Rays get two bullpen arms, something they desperately needed.  Both pitchers will likely fill a middle relief role, however, so don’t look for them to have much value.

Bartlett is a nice player, but his fantasy appeal is limited.  He offers no power (29 career HR in 2,501 AB despite hitting 14 in ‘09 alone) and moving to San Diego, he’s going to have even less.  There’s a little bit of speed there, but you are probably talking about 20 SB with little upside in runs and average.  He’s a low-end option, at best, especially in what figures to be a low-powered offense. 

The Phillies Signed P Dennys Reyes

The Phillies get their left-handed reliever.  That’s good for them, but it is meaningless to fantasy owners.

The Royals Signed OF Melky Cabrera

Now things get interesting in Kansas City.  You would have thought that they’d want to give their youngsters an opportunity, like letting Jarrod Dyson be a spark plug at the top of the order and in center field.  Instead they bring in an outfielder who brings no power and no speed.  Hopefully he’s going to be the fourth outfielder for the Royals and not take at-bats from someone who could be useful.

The Chicago White Sox Signed 1B Paul Konerko

His value would plummet if he left Chicago, though you have to expect a regression anyway.  He posted a 19.5 percent HR/FB rate and a .326 BABIP, two numbers that could fall in 2011.  He’s going to be usable for sure, but we’ll go into much more detail in the near future.

The Seattle Mariners Signed DH Jack Cust

He’s one of those potential high power, low average guys.  Of course, his HR/FB has fallen for four straight years, from 31.7 percent in 2007 to 14.9 percent in 2010.  If he’s not going to hit over 30 HR, he’s not going to have any value.

The Kansas City Royals Signed OF Jeff Franceour

I feel like he has been rumored to be going to the Royals for the better part of a year, but he finally landed there.  He’s a streaky hitter and really doesn’t bring enough in the power, speed or average department to justify trusting him.  However, when he gets hot, he has value.  Hitting in the middle of the Royals lineup, he could be worth using in five-outfielder formats at times.  Keep an eye on him, but don’t consider him a regular.

The Milwaukee Brewers Signed C Will Nieves

He’ll be a backup for the Brewers and as a career .227 hitter with five HR in 701 AB—you can easily forget him.

The Atlanta Braves Signed P George Sherrill

He was once a closer, but those duties will likely fall to Jonny Venters, Craig Kimbrel or a combination of the two.  There’s little chance that he gets opportunities for saves, so he’s not going to have value to fantasy owners.  Obviously, if something changes you’ll want to scoop him up off waivers, but for now he can be ignored.

The Cincinnati Reds Signed INF Miguel Cairo

He’s a utility infielder, meaning his value is nil.

The Los Angeles Dodgers Signed C Dioner Navarro

Navarro could share time with Rod Barajas to replace the departed Russell Martin behind the plate.  There was a time that people thought Navarro could develop into a must-use option, but he’s never hit more than nine home runs in a season and sports a career .249 average.  Maybe he finally puts it together, but even those in two-catcher formats can ignore him for now.

The New York Mets Signed P Boof Bonser

At this point Bonser figures to be organizational depth and nothing else.  He’s not worth worrying about.

The Arizona Diamondbacks Signed P Mike Hampton

Remember when he actually was fantasy viable?  Not anymore.

The Seattle Mariners Signed C Miguel Olivo

He certainly has power, consistently posting a HR/FB of 12 percent, leading to 12-16 HR a season (outside of his 23 HR breakout in 2009).  He’s not going to hit for an extremely high average, though then again most catchers aren’t going to.  Considering he figures to get regular at-bats (the only other option they have is Adam Moore right now), who should be worth considering in two-catcher formats.  As far as where he sits in the rankings, we’ll address that soon enough.

The Baltimore Orioles Acquired SS J.J. Hardy and INF Brendan Harris from the Minnesota Twins for P Brett Jacobson and P Jim Hoey

Hardy’s one and only season in Minnesota did not go as planned, hitting .268 with six HR and 38 RBI.  He still holds significant upside, as it wasn’t long ago that he hit 50 HR over two seasons with the Brewers.  As a late-round flier, he’s well worth the risk.  It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see him hit in the 18-HR range.

It appears that the Twins are prepared to hand everyday at-bats to Alexi Casilla.  He has some speed, but no power and likely is only going to hold value in the deepest of formats.

The Houston Astros Signed P Ryan Rowland-Smith

He’ll likely battle for the fifth starters spot, but with a career 5.46 K/9, he’s not going to hold much value.

What are your thoughts on these moves?  Who is the biggest winner?  Who are you now targeting?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

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