Kuzul

Ryan Raburn caught fire towards the end of the season, hitting .340 with 13 HR, 38 RBI and 37 R over the final two months of the season.  Obviously, he’s not going to maintain those types of numbers, especially when you look at the peripherals that led to them:

• .381 BABIP
• 20.0% HR/FB

Those two numbers alone will hang over him.  We all know that the BABIP is unrealistic.  As for the HR/FB, there were only seven players to post a HR/FB rate of at least 20 percent in 2010, none of whom were middle infielders.  In fact, Dan Uggla led all middle infielders with a 17.4% mark.

Having established the fact that Raburn will not perform up to the level he set in August and September, that doesn’t mean that he is not going to have value. 

First of all, a lot of his value is going to be dependent on your league format.  Look at the number of games he played by position in 2010:

• First Base – 1
• Second Base – 18
• Third Base – 2
• Outfield – 100

So, if your league requires 20 games for eligibility, Raburn is not going to be eligible at 2B.  If your format requires less than that, his value increases exponentially.

Now, what exactly can we expect from Raburn in 2011?  It appears that he will open the season as the Tigers’ starting left fielder, barring any other free agent activity.  If he does have everyday at bats, Raburn is certainly going to have value in all formats.

In limited at bats over the best two seasons, he has continued to show good power.  He has 632 AB between 2009 and 2010, hitting 31 HR with 107 RBI and 98 R.  That’s a full season of statistics and they are impressive.

While his power really soared over the final two months in ‘10, overall his HR/FB was just 12.2%.  They say baseball is a game of averages, and that’s why we don’t put too much stock into small sample sizes. You are never as good as your highest high, or as bad as your lowest low. 

What Raburn has shown over the past two seasons is that when given the opportunity, he has the ability to show plenty of power.  Let’s not forget, in 2009 he posted a HR/FB rate of 17.0%.

I’m not about to say that in a full season he is going to hit 30 HR, but it would appear that with 500-550 AB, he easily could hit 20-25 HR.

He has also shown the ability to hit for a good average as a career .274 hitter (with averages of .291 and .280 the past two seasons). 

Couple that type of number with some power and the ability to score and drive in runs in a high-powered offense, and it isn’t going to matter what position he’s playing.

Obviously, he’d have significantly more value as a 2B, but even as an outfielder, a .280 hitter with 25 HR and the potential to go 85/85 is going to be worth owning. 

He’s not going to be an early round selection.  In fact, you very well may be able to get him in the later rounds, drafting him as a bench option. 

The thing is, this is the type of player who can help you win fantasy championships.  There is going to be very little risk, but quite a bit of potential reward.  In other words, he’s a player to target in all formats.

What are your thoughts of Raburn?  Is he a player you are going to target on draft day?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

While Day 2 of the Winter Meetings were not as busy as the first (at least in terms of action), let’s take a look at the potential fallout from the moves that were made:

The Cubs signed 1B Carlos Pena.

Pena had a terrible 2010 campaign, hitting .196 with 28 HR and 84 RBI in 484 AB.  The fall in power (he had hit 46, 31 and 39 over the previous three seasons) was not due to the number of AB, as he has never had more than 500 AB in a season. 

Part of that is due to his stellar walk rate (he’s been at 14.9 percent or better each of the past four years).  The problem was that his fly ball rate was down to 40.6 percent, after being over 50 percent the previous two years.  A rebound there will certainly lead to another 30+ HR campaign, especially as he takes advantage of the wind blowing out in the summer months at Wrigley.

His average struggled due to a poor BABIP (.222), something you would have to expect him to rebound from.  While he’s never going to be a “good” average hitter, due to a career 31.2 percent strikeout rate, he’s definitely better than he showed last season.

Moving to the NL and the middle of the Cubs lineup, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him hit around .250 with 35 HR and 100 RBI.  That’s not an elite option at a deep position, but it certainly will have value.  Don’t ignore him over his poor 2010.

The Rockies signed INF Ty Wigginton.

With Todd Helton and Ian Stewart starting at the corners, Wigginton appears to be coming in to serve a reserve role.  However, that always seems to be the intention of teams, yet Wigginton always manages to earn regular playing time.  He’s coming off a year where he hit 22 HR with 76 RBI.  Yes, he struggled to a .248 average, but an improvement to his .270 BABIP will help to offset that (he has a career .287 mark).

He spent over 20 games at 1B, 2B and 3B in 2010, meaning he has eligibility at all three positions in the majority of formats.  It would not be a surprise to see him playing four or five times a week as a super utility, spending time across the infield (and at DH when they are playing in AL ballparks). 

With no one having a clear-cut lead in the 2B race, it’s possible he ultimately claims that job.  The bottom line is, in deeper formats, he’s going to be worth owning as a depth option.  Since 2003 he’s had under 400 AB just twice (once was in 2005 when he played in just 57 games).  Somehow he just manages to find at bats and is a source of power at a position you don’t allows find it (2B), stash him away.

The Mets signed P D.J. Carrasco.

When he was traded from Pittsburgh to Arizona, I thought that he could be given a chance to close considering how pathetic the Diamondbacks bullpen was.  While that didn’t happen, he posted another solid season overall, with a 3.68 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  He’s not going to have fantasy viability, barring something dramatic in New York, as Francisco Rodriguez is currently looking like the closer and Bobby Parnell next in line.

The Mets signed C Ronny Paulino.

He’s being brought in to face left-handed pitching as part of a platoon with Josh Thole.  That’s a perfect role for him, but it doesn’t bring much fantasy appeal.  Thole is the better catcher to own, but even he is going to be restricted to two-catcher formats.  He offers little power and figures to get ample days of rest now that Paulino is in the mix.

The Pirates signed OF Matt Diaz.

It will be interesting to see if he gets regular playing time or not, but Diaz figures to be a platoon player.  He does a solid job against left-handed pitching, but if that’s all he’s used for he’s not going to have value.  At this point in time, it’s better to leave him on the waiver wire unless the plans change.

The Dodgers signed OF Tony Gwynn Jr.

He brings speed, but has hit just .244 in 924 career at bats.  The Dodgers have Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier locked in as starting outfielders and while Gwynn could challenge for the left field job, chances are he serves a reserve role.  Even if he earns a starting job (an unlikely event), he’s only going to have value for those in need of stolen bases.

What are your thoughts on these moves?  Who is the biggest winner?  Who are you now targeting?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

After exploding in 2009 with 31 HR and 106 RBI, fantasy owners were clamoring about what Andre Ethier could be in 2010.  Could he emerge as one of the elite outfielders in the game?  Forget about just outfielders, could he emerge as one of the elite hitters in the game?  The fact is that the question owners should have been asking was if he could even repeat that success.  The answer would have been no (though there’s an asterisk), as Ethier posted the following line:

585 At Bats
.292 Batting Average (151 Hits)
23 Home Runs
82 RBI
71 Runs
2 Stolen Bases
.363 On Base Percentage
.493 Slugging Percentage
.318 Batting Average on Balls in Play

When looking at the numbers, you have to remember that Ethier missed time with a finger injury which certainly played a role in his overall performance.  He was unbelievable over the first two months of the season, going 49-129 with 11 HR, 38 RBI and 25 R.  Granted, included in those numbers was a .452 BABIP in May, as well as HR/FB of 27.3% and 26.2% in April and May, respectively, so there are reasons to be skeptical about that success.

After he returned to the lineup in June, he hit just 12 HR over 378 AB.  That alone shows you just how night and day his season was.

The question we need to be asking ourselves is which Ethier is the real one?  Is it the one that appeared to be among the elite over the first month and a half or is it the player who appeared average in the second half?

There’s no way we can reasonably expect him to be able to maintain the lofty numbers he showed early on.  Overall his HR/FB for the season was 13.8%, right around where he had been the previous two seasons:

• 2008 – 14.1%
• 2009 – 15.4%

While we can expect him to grow a little bit, taking the type of jump he showed in the first part of the season is just unrealistic.  He’ll turn 29-years old in April and is very much in his prime, but just keep expectations in check.  No player posted a HR/FB over 25.0% in 2010 (Joey Votto was at 25.0%) and only seven players were above 20.0%.  He may add power, but he’s not likely to be in this range, even if the finger injury was part of the reason he lost some power later in the season.

When healthy he spent the majority of his time hitting third in 2010, which is where you would expect him to hit again in 2011.  The Dodgers lineup is still taking shape, but with a healthy Rafael Furcal hitting in front of him and Matt Kemp, Juan Uribe and others behind him, you have to like Ethier’s potential to pick up both runs and RBI.  He already has two seasons with at least 90 runs scored and a 100 RBI campaign under his belt, both marks that you have to think a healthy Ethier can reach in 2011.

Throw in a solid average, given his solid eye at the plate (19.7% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate in 2010) and a realistic BABIP of .322, and Ethier really does bring the total package to the table.

Let’s take a look at what I would expect from him in 2011:

.295 (162-550), 30 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R, 5 SB, .322 BABIP, .368 OBP, .535 SLG

I know there are concerns given his performance over the final few months of the season, but an injury to his hand certainly goes a long way in helping to explain that.  While what he showed in the first two months is excessive, it still gives reason to believe that Ethier has what it takes to be among the elite outfielders in the game. 

What are your thoughts of Ethier?  How do you see him performing in 2011?  Are you concerned at all?

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

After exploding in 2009 with 31 home runs and 106 RBI, fantasy owners were clamoring about what Andre Ethier could be in 2010.  Could he emerge as one of the elite outfielders in the game?  Forget about just outfielders, could he emerge as one of the elite hitters in the game?  The fact is that the question owners should have been asking was if he could even repeat that success.  The answer would have been no (though there’s an asterisk), as Ethier posted the following line:

585 At Bats
.292 Batting Average (151 Hits)
23 Home Runs
82 RBI
71 Runs
2 Stolen Bases
.363 On-Base Percentage
.493 Slugging Percentage
.318 Batting Average on Balls in Play

When looking at the numbers, you have to remember that Ethier missed time with a finger injury which certainly played a role in his overall performance.  He was unbelievable over the first two months of the season, going 49-129 with 11 home runs, 38 RBI and 25 runs.  Granted, included in those numbers was a .452 BABIP in May, as well as HR/FB of 27.3 percent and 26.2 percent in April and May, respectively, so there are reasons to be skeptical about that success.

After he returned to the lineup in June, he hit just 12 homers over 378 at-bats.  That alone shows you just how night and day his season was.

The question we need to be asking ourselves is which Ethier is the real one?  Is it the one that appeared to be among the elite over the first month-and-a-half or is it the player who appeared average in the second half?

There’s no way we can reasonably expect him to be able to maintain the lofty numbers he showed early on.  Overall his HR-to-FB for the season was 13.8 percent, right around where he had been the previous two seasons:

• 2008 – 14.1%
• 2009 – 15.4%

While we can expect him to grow a little bit, taking the type of jump he showed in the first part of the season is just unrealistic.  He’ll turn 29-years old in April and is very much in his prime, but just keep expectations in check.  No player posted a HR-to-FB over 25 percent in 2010 (Joey Votto was at 25 percent) and only seven players were above 20 percent.  He may add power, but he’s not likely to be in this range, even if the finger injury was part of the reason he lost some power later in the season.

When healthy, he spent the majority of his time hitting third in 2010, which is where you would expect him to hit again in 2011.  The Dodgers lineup is still taking shape, but with a healthy Rafael Furcal hitting in front of him and Matt Kemp, Juan Uribe and others behind him, you have to like Ethier’s potential to pick up both runs and RBI.  He already has two seasons with at least 90 runs scored and a 100 RBI campaign under his belt, both marks that you have to think a healthy Ethier can reach in 2011.

Throw in a solid average, given his solid eye at the plate (19.7-percent strikeout rate, 10.1-percent walk rate in 2010) and a realistic BABIP of .322, and Ethier really does bring the total package to the table.

Let’s take a look at what I would expect from him in 2011:

.295 (162-550), 30 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R, 5 SB, .322 BABIP, .368 OBP, .535 SLG

I know there are concerns given his performance over the final few months of the season, but an injury to his hand certainly goes a long way in helping to explain that.  While what he showed in the first two months is excessive, it still gives reason to believe that Ethier has what it takes to be among the elite outfielders in the game. 

What are your thoughts of Ethier?  How do you see him performing in 2011?  Are you concerned at all?

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

While the Adrian Gonzalez trade has gotten all of the publicity (and rightfully so, as you can read my thoughts on the deal by clicking here), there was plenty of other moves on the first day of the Winter Meetings worth noting.  Let’s take a look at the fantasy fallout:

The Milwaukee Brewers acquired SP Shaun Marcum from the Toronto Blue Jays for 2B Brett Lawrie. 
I’m not sure if I’m more surprised by the fact that the Brewers seemed more than willing to trade their top prospect or how excited fantasy owners should be that Marcum is now out of the AL East.  Lawrie has a ton of potential with the bat, though there is some debate as to whether his glove will allow him to stick at 2B or not.  At Double-A in ‘10 he hit .285 with 8 HR, 63 RBI, 90 R and 30 SB in 554 AB and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him make his major league debut in ‘11.

He figures to be featured on our Top 50 prospects (which will be released in early ‘11), but the question is which team he’ll be representing.  There have been rumblings that the Blue Jays acquired him simply to flip him in another deal (Zack Greinke perhaps), but time will tell.  To read my prospect report on Lawrie, click here. 

As for Marcum, he was solid in ‘10 after missing all of ‘09 due to injury.  In 195.1 innings he posted a 3.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 165 K.  He has a career BB/9 of 2.80, yet was significantly better than that, posting a 1.98 mark.  It’s possible that moving to the NL will bring an increase in his strikeouts, which were already solid (7.60 K/9 and reaching 8.0 would not be a major surprise).  In the toughest division in baseball he posted solid numbers with realistic peripherals (.289 BABIP, 74.3% strand rate).  Moving to the NL, his value certainly improves.  He’s not going to be an ace, but he should definitely be thought of us a good buy as a middle of the rotation option.

The Washington Nationals signed OF Jayson Werth.
Not only was the destination a surprise, but the scope of the contract was as well.  A seven-year, $126 million dollar deal certainly took many off guard, but we can debate if he’s worth the money later on.  Right now, what we are most concerned with is if he will produce in 2011 or not.

He has shown good power the last three seasons, but 50 of his 87 HR came at home.  He’s likely to hit 20-24 HR, but that may be his upper limit now.  He also has some speed, but you talking about a player who has never exceeded 20 in a season in the major leagues.  He’ll chip in 85+ R and RBI, but the bottom line is that he is looking like a low-level OF2, at best, now that he’s landed in Washington.

The Baltimore Orioles acquired 3B Mark Reynolds from the Arizona Diamondbacks for P David Hernandez and P Kam Mickolio.
Hernandez & Mickolio figure to be middle relievers for the Diamondbacks and have little fantasy appeal at this point.  As for Reynolds, we all know that he is going to give some power, but the strikeouts have gotten to a ridiculous level.  In 2010 he posted strikeout rate of 42.3%, the fourth consecutive season it has increased.  Could it get any higher moving to the AL East?  You would certainly hope not, but I guess one never knows.  His value isn’t going to change by the move, however.  He remains a source of power and nothing else, meaning he’s a low-end option, even at a shallow position.

The Diamondbacks signed 3B Melvin Mora.
It didn’t take them long to try and find a replacement for Reynolds, but it is hard to imagine the 38-year old getting everyday AB.  He was used as a utility player for the Rockies in ‘10, hitting .285 with 7 HR and 2 SB in 316 AB.  Even if he does play every day, he just doesn’t bring enough to the table at this point in his career.

The Diamondbacks signed P J.J. Putz.
The Diamondbacks bullpen was horrendous in 2010 and signing Putz goes a long way in improving things.  He should be the stabilizing force at the back end as he returns to closing duties.  It’s easy to look at the terrible season he posted in a setup role for the Mets in ‘09 (5.22 ERA, 5.83 K/9), but he rebounded in a big way last season.  The strikeouts returned (10.83 K/9).  His control, which was pathetic in ‘09 (5.83 BB/9), came back as he posted a 2.50 mark (in ‘06 & ‘07 he posted walk rates below 2.00).  Maybe it was the injury he suffered in ‘08 still rearing its head, but at this point I’d feel confident that he was back on track.  Is he going to be an elite closer?  Probably not, but he certainly should be a solid mid-level option.

The Pirates signed P Kevin Correia.
In 2010 his control, which we thought may have improved in 2009 (2.91 BB/9), regressed back to around his career mark with a 3.97 mark.  He struggled with home runs (1.24 HR/9), despite calling Petco Park home.  He posted a K/9 of 7.14, though over his career he has been all over the map (career K/9 of 6.63).  Yes, you can say his 5.40 ERA was due to a 68.4% strand rate, but he just wasn’t that good regardless.  Now on the Pirates, he should be left as waiver wire fodder.

The Padres signed P Aaron Harang.
Can he rediscover what made him a very good fantasy option?  If he is healthy, it certainly could happen.  He has a career HR/FB of 11.0%, but you have to think getting out of Great American Ballpark will help him improve there.  He also suffered from a .346 BABIP and 69.4% strand rate in 2010.  He has good control (2.52 career BB/9) and strikeout upside (7.47 K/9 or better from 2006-2009).  He’s certainly worth taking a flier late in your draft in all deeper formats.  If you are in a shallower league, monitor him closely and be ready to pounce.

What are your thoughts on these moves?  Who is the biggest winner?  Who are you now targeting?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With Adrian Gonzalez officially being dealt to Boston, there has been a major shakeup in our first base rankings.  Let’s take a look at how things currently stand for the 2011 season:

1. Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals
2. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
3. Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds
4. Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees
5. Adrian Gonzalez – Boston Red Sox
6. Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers
7. Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies
8. Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox
9. Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels
10. Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins
11. Adam Dunn – Chicago White Sox
12. Billy Butler – Kansas City Royals
13. Victor Martinez – Detroit Tigers
14. Paul Konerko – Free Agent
15. Buster Posey – San Francisco

Thoughts:

• Over the past four seasons Adrian Gonzalez has hit 137 home runs, with only 47 coming at home. Clearly, the move from Petco Park to Fenway Park is going to do wonders for his potential value. With Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira all coming off down seasons, it is easy to immediately push Gonzalez into the top five. It’ll be really interesting to see how it all plays out, but let the debate begin.
• As I discussed earlier, Adam Dunn’s move to the White Sox does little to change his fantasy value. He’s one of the elite power hitters in the game and is worth owning in all formats.
• Victor Martinez may struggle with his power now that he’s playing in Detroit, but he will also likely see time at DH, giving him more AB and more of an opportunity for counting stats. We all know that his true value lies in his catcher eligibility and that no one is going to draft him as a 1B, but that doesn’t mean he lacks value here (the same thing can be said for Buster Posey).
• The next players on the list are Ike Davis and Aubrey Huff, both of whom just missed.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Heading into 2010, selecting Prince Fielder in the first round of fantasy drafts was an easy decision. 

He was coming off a year in which he had hit .299 with 46 HR, 141 RBI and 103 R. It was the second time in his career that he had hit at least 45 HR, as well as the second time he had gone 100/100. 

Unfortunately for owners who put their faith in him, Fielder started slowly (which is not an oddity for him) and never got going.

Now owners face a new set of questions: How do we value him heading into 2011? Is he a viable first round selection? 

Let’s take a look.

2010 Campaign: Fielder regressed across the board, hitting .261 with 32 HR, 83 RBI and 94 R. 

Previously a fixture in the cleanup role for the Brewers, he just never got going and the team ultimately experimented with flipping Fielder and Ryan Braun in an effort to get him going.  nfortunately, it didn’t work (at least not completely). 

While Fielder did alright in the three hole (.275, 10 HR, 19 RBI) in 142 AB, we have already discussed how much Braun struggled hitting fourth (click here to read the article on Braun). 

On the season, Fielder had four months with just five home runs or less. In comparison, in 2009 after hitting three home runs in April, he hit at least eight home runs in four of the next five months.

What happened: The biggest problem was Fielder’s ability to perform with runners in scoring position (RISP). In 2009, he hit .296 with 13 HR and 93 RBI with RISP; in 2010, he hit just .233 with 2 HR and 47 RBI with RISP. 

If you are looking for the one big explanation for his regression, this is it.

While it may not help explain his fall in power, it certainly helps explain the collapse in RBI. While I don’t think anyone anticipated him repeating his 141 RBI from ‘09, a 58 RBI regression seems extremely dramatic.

Of course, it’s not the only reason for his falloff. His fly ball rate was its lowest since 2006 at 39.7%. What may be even more noteworthy is his HR/FB, which has gone back and forth the past four seasons. 

Just look at the trend, as well as the number of home runs it yielded:

• 2007 – 23.9% (50 HR)
• 2008 – 18.2% (34 HR)
• 2009 – 23.1% (46 HR)
• 2010 – 18.3% (32 HR)

This not only helps explain his power regression, but his fall in average as well. While he did post a lower BABIP (.315 in ‘09 to .291 in ‘10), if he had been able to maintain his power, his average would have been significantly better. 

Just think about it: Home runs are hits not put in play, meaning luck is irrelevant. 

At the end of the day, Fielder posted a .471 SLG, his worst mark in a full season at the major league level. With his power, would anyone have predicted that?

Fielder also struggled against left handed pitchers, hitting .226 with 5 HR and 19 RBI. In comparison, he had at least 10 HR against southpaws each year since 2006.

What to expect in 2011: It’s hard to imagine Fielder once again struggling as badly as he did with RISP, as well as against left handed pitchers. 

The fact that he’s traded these types of “bad” years with tremendous seasons would give you hope. Couple that (which is more superstitious then anything) with the numbers and it should be another solid campaign.

There will be questions about him getting traded throughout the season (if he’s not traded beforehand), and it is possible that it causes a distraction. At the same time, Fielder is going to be playing for a contract and he is going to want to prove that the 40+ HR power is still in his bat.

Is he going to match the monster years he had in 2007 and 2009? Probably not, but the potential is there for him to do so. The problem is, without that being likely, it is almost impossible to select him in the first round this year. 

When you pick someone in the first round you want to at least feel confident that they will perform among the Top 12 players in the league.

Can you honestly say that about Fielder? Can you say it is an absolute certainty?

Throw in the depth among first baseman and it makes it impossible to select him at the end of the first round. 

The truth is, from picks 13-18, you could possibly have first base option like Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard and Adrian Gonzalez still on the board (as well as Fielder). 

Why not take a player at a shallower position in the middle-to-late first round, than look to bank one of these first basemen, with potential first round talent, in the second round? 

It’s not that Fielder doesn’t have the ability to perform like a first rounder, it just doesn’t make sense to pick him as one.

What are your thoughts? Do you see Fielder as a first round pick in 2011? Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our previous first round pick analysis articles:

• Ryan Braun
• Ryan Howard

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

After years of rumors, Adrian Gonzalez has finally been traded to the Boston Red Sox.  Dan Hayes of the North County Times (via Twitter) has reported that the Padres will receive P Casey Kelly, 1B Anthony Rizzo and OF Reymond Fuentes in return.  Other reports have a player to be named later also included.

Recently, all three of the known prospects were ranked among the Red Sox Top 10 for 2011 by Baseball America.  Kelly was No. 1, Rizzo No. 3 and Fuentes No. 6.  It’s a nice package for the Padres, but you still have to love the deal from the Red Sox perspective.

Yes, there are questions about Gonzalez, who is coming off shoulder surgery, but you would have to think that it isn’t expected to be a problem (he did have to pass a physical for the trade to be approved).  In 2010 Gonzalez hit .298 with 31 HR and 101 RBI hitting in the middle of a weak lineup in a ballpark that significantly favors pitching.  Now, he’ll join a loaded lineup in a hitter’s park, which makes him all the more appealing.

Gonzalez was ranked seventh in our initial 1B rankings for 2011 (click here to view) and should only gain appeal.  There certainly is the chance that he moves up at least one slot based on the news.

This does mean the likely end of Adrian Beltre’s tenure in Boston, with Kevin Youkilis sliding back to third base.  That has to be music to fantasy owner’s ears.  After playing just two games at 3B in 2010, he would not have eligibility there in the majority of formats.  Now, Youkilis is going to gain eligibility there rather quickly, adding a potent bat to a position that is nearly barren of dependable talent.

As for the Padres, Kelly has a ton of upside, despite the lackluster numbers he produced at Double-A in 2010, his first full season as a pitcher.  At 21-years-old, it is not unthinkable that he makes his major league debut by mid-year 2011. 

As Baseball America recently said, “Kelly’s ERA may have ballooned from 2.08 in 2009 to 5.31 last season, but the Red Sox think that’s attributable to having to learn how to harness an increase in velocity and make his mechanics work as his frame started to mature. His fastball now sits at 90-94 mph, up from 89-92 the year before, and peaks at 96.” 

To go with the fastball, he is said to have an above average changeup and a curveball with the potential to be above average as well.

Rizzo has some power (25 HR in 531 AB between Single & Double-A in ‘10) and at 21-years-old could develop into the long-term replacement for the Padres.  However, he’s probably at least a year away, if not more.

Fuentes had 42 SB in 2010 at Low-A and at 19-years-old (he’ll turn 20 in February) is still a few years away.  He has long-term potential and should certainly be viewed as a viable player to stash in long-term keeper leagues, but that’s about it.

Clearly, Gonzalez and Youkilis both see huge gains in value.  As for Beltre, we’ll just have to wait and see where he lands, but the chances of him maintaining his value appears to be slim.

What are your thoughts on the trade?  Who is the big winner?  Who is the big loser?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The big news from yesterday seemingly came out of nowhere.  There had been talk of Adam Dunn talking to teams like the Chicago Cubs and Detroit Tigers, but very little talk about him joining the Chicago White Sox.  Of course, that’s exactly what happened.

It is being reported by multiple sources that Dunn and the White Sox have agreed to a four-year, $56 million deal.  That’s the type of deal that Dunn was looking for the last time he was a free agent, though he ultimately settled for a two-year, $20 million deal with Washington.

Dunn has long proven to be one of the most consistent sluggers in baseball, now with seven straight seasons with at least 38 home runs.  Over that span he also has six seasons of at least 100 RBI and four seasons of at least 99 runs.

The big concern has always been his average, though he has hit at least .260 in three of the past four seasons.  He has always struck out a significant amount (over 30 percent in each of his major league seasons) and the difference in his average has always been due to luck and nothing else.  Just look at his average/BABIP over the past four seasons:

• 2007: .264/.305
• 2008: .236/.258
• 2009: .267/.324
• 2010: .260/.329

You could even push it back three years further.  From 2004-2006 Dunn had two seasons hitting under .250 (in both seasons he posted BABIP of under .280).  In the other season he hit .266, thanks to a BABIP of .321.  The bottom line is if Dunn has his share of luck and posts a BABIP of at least .300, he is going to post a usable average.

Moving to the AL, we can’t be sure exactly how it will impact him.  While interleague play and free agency has brought more exposure to different pitchers, there will still be a learning curve.  While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his average struggle, this certainly isn’t the reason why you are drafting him.

That brings us back to the power.  U.S. Cellular Field is one of the better hitting parks in baseball, significantly better then Nationals Park.  It would certainly appear like he is a lock to reach the 38-HR plateau, wouldn’t it?

As for where he hits in the lineup, that is still open for debate.  There has been talk that the White Sox are still considering re-signing Paul Konerko, which would push Dunn to a full-time DH role and potentially put him in the fifth slot of the lineup.  If Konerko does not return, Dunn will likely hit fourth.

Either way, he’s going to have a chance to drive in runs.  The big question will be how many runs he scores.

Like the average, while it matters, it’s just not going to be in our decision-making progress.  We are going to draft Dunn for his power and that is the one thing we don’t have to worry about.  He has found himself in a great situation to hit home runs and nothing is going to change that.

Dunn’s move to Chicago does nothing to affect his fantasy appeal.  Draft him in all formats as a low-level first baseman (in our original rankings, Dunn came in at No. 11, which you can see by clicking here). 

What are your thoughts on Dunn?  Does the move to Chicago change his value?  How would you rank him among 1B?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

There are a lot of young pitchers with potential upside in baseball today.

While the AL East is generally not a good place to go searching for such pitchers, the Toronto Blue Jays’ Brett Cecil could be an exception to the rule. He was solid in his rookie campaign and it could be just the beginning.

Before we get into what could be, let’s look at what he did in 2010:

15 Wins
172.2 Innings
4.22 ERA
1.33 WHIP
117 Strikeouts (6.1 K/9)
54 Walks (2.8 BB/9)
.298 BABIP

The strikeouts may not be impressive off the bat, but he showed a lot more potential in the minor leagues. While it was a relatively small sample size (228.1 innings), he posted a K/9 of 9.0.

Granted, the majority of that was spent in the low minor leagues (only 90.2 innings at Triple-A), but it still does show that there is room for improvement.

I wouldn’t call it a lock by any stretch, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the 24-year old lefty take a step forward in the strikeout department. With a fastball that sits in the low 90s, a K/9 of 7.0 or better is realistic.

If that was all we were banking on, then there certainly would be a lot of skepticism.  However, Cecil has the potential to bring the trio of abilities that fantasy owners should look for.

First of all, he already has shown that he has solid control. A 2.8 BB/9 is similar to his minor league mark (2.9), showing that it is very much for real.

Secondly, he has the potential to be a very good groundball pitcher. You may not know it from his 2010 success, as he had a 44.2% mark. However, if you look at his minor league numbers, the potential is there for him to be significantly better.

Over his minor league career, he had a groundball rate of 59.7%. Obviously, you can’t compare that number to what people did in the Major Leagues, but in 2010 there were just three pitchers who posted groundball rates of better than 57%:

• 1. Derek Lowe – 58.8%
• 2. Justin Masterson – 59.5%
• 3. Tim Hudson – 64.1%

Seeing him improve in this department would not be a surprise. When you couple it with a potential improvement in strikeouts and the solid control that he has already shown, there is an awful lot to like.

Of course, there are two big ifs in that equation, making Cecil a sizable risk: It is no guarantee that he improves both the strikeouts and groundballs; he could improve on one and not the other. Of course, he could improve on neither all together.

Throw in the fact that he pitches in the toughest division in baseball and there are reasons to be skeptical. He pitched well against his division rivals in 2010, but can we really expect him to duplicate these types of numbers:

• Orioles – 2-0, 2.51 ERA, 14.1 innings
• Rays – 3-1, 4.60 ERA, 29.1 innings
• Red Sox – 2-1, 3.86 ERA, 18.2 innings
• Yankees – 4-0, 2.67 ERA, 33.2 innings

The rewards certainly outweigh the risks, which is why I would absolutely endorse selecting him late in your draft. He’s not a pitcher to draft in a position that you are going to depend on him, but to get him late and see if he can take that next step, you have nothing to lose.

Maybe he will develop, maybe he won’t. However, with his potential, he should be a late round target in all formats.

What are your thoughts on Cecil? Is he worth drafting? Do you think he can take the next step in 2011?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com