Kuzul

There has been a flurry of moves the past few days, so let’s take a look at the fantasy implications: 

Javier Vazquez signs with the Florida Marlins

This is the biggest move of the past few days.  After struggling mightily in the AL East (5.32 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6.9 K/9), he returns to the NL East.  Let’s not forget, in 2009 while with the Braves, Vazquez put up Cy Young-esque numbers (2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9.8 K/9).

It’s easy to expect an improvement just from escaping the new Yankees Stadium, though it’s not like he only struggled at home in 2010 (5.29 ERA at home and 5.34 ERA on the road).  He was simply bad, there’s no other way to put it. 

The most important thing to look at isn’t his peripherals, considering his BABIP (.276) and strand rate (71.9 percent) were both realistic numbers.  The problem was that he seemingly lost his fastball.  Just look at his average fastball over the past four years:

• 2007 – 91.8 mph
• 2008 – 91.7 mph
• 2009 – 91.1 mph
• 2010 – 88.7 mph

That is a huge drop-off and easily helps to explain the dramatic falloff in strikeouts.  He also had a huge loss in his control, with a 1.8 BB/9 in 2009 to a 3.7 BB/9 in 2010.  Granted, his 2009 mark was a career best, but he had not posted a mark worse than 2.6 since 2000. 

We can easily expect for him to improve with the move back to the NL, but the velocity is another problem altogether.  If he doesn’t get it back, he likely won’t be able to return to the days of a K/9 of at least 8.0, meaning his value is just not going to come back as much as fantasy owners hope. 

His new location certainly makes him a better player to take a flier on, but he is far from a lock to rebound.  I wouldn’t overdraft him based on the transition.  He remains a late round flier at this point. 

Juan Uribe signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers

After hitting .248 with 24 HR, 85 RBI and 64 R, Uribe leaves the Giants for their division rivals.  The first thing that jumps out is his average, which we would’ve expected him to improve upon regardless of where he signed. 

He actually improved his strikeout rate (17.7 percent) but suffered from extremely poor luck (.256 BABIP).  He’s had struggles there in the past, so while it isn’t a lock that he improves, you would have to expect him to be at least a little bit better.

While the majority of his struggles did come on the road (.215 average), it’s hard to read too much into that.  In 2010, he hit .258 with 3 HR, 9 RBI and 4 R at Dodgers Stadium.

What may be most appealing is that he joins a lineup with more offensive punch.  With Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Co., there should be plenty of opportunities for Uribe to continue to produce. 

He is likely to play 2B, meaning he may lose his SS eligibility long-term (though, does anyone expect Rafael Furcal to remain healthy).  It’s worth keeping in mind but shouldn’t sway his value in 2011 (as he will have eligibility there).

He was a low-end option to begin with and should remain as one now. 

Miguel Tejada signs with the San Francisco Giants

It didn’t take long for the Giants to find a replacement for Uribe, at least at some level.  It’s possible that Tejada plays 3B, depending on their stance on Pablo Sandoval, but that would still leave a void at SS.

Does the move change his fantasy value?  Not really.  His power is diminishing (I can’t put too much stock in his eight home runs after the trade to San Diego), he has no speed and is likely to hit for a good, not great, average. 

Just leave him valued the same as you would’ve. 

Yorvit Torrealba signs with the Texas Rangers

His presence in Texas likely means the end of Bengie Molina’s tenure there.  Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez will likely get looks as well but will likely be more of the backups.

Even if Torrealba does get the bulk of the at-bats, he has a career .257 average with no power (he’s never hit more than 8 HR in a season).  At this point, Texas catchers are not worth owning, even in two-catcher formats. 

Ryan Theriot is traded to the St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals needed help in the middle infield and Theriot is a nice fit.  If he finds himself hitting at the top of the Cardinals order, he gets a huge boost in value. 

He has a career OBP of .348 and certainly could push 90+ runs scored with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday hitting behind him.

Couple that with a little bit of speed (20+ stolen bases each of the past four years) and you get a player with value in deeper formats. 

He has little to no power, which hurts his overall appeal, but don’t rule him out because of it.  A solid average, runs scored and stolen bases…you could do worse in deeper formats.

What are your thoughts on these moves?  Whose value increases?  Whose doesn’t?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First-Round Breakdown

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

This is an extremely rough first draft of my pitching rankings and faces a lot of changes as the offseason progresses (as well as being expanded significantly).  Keep that in mind as you look things over.

While the top pick is clear-cut, after that things are extremely wide open.  Especially from about 14 through 25 (though not all are shown on the rankings), there is likely to be a lot of movement because all of the pitchers are so closely bunched together.  Let’s take a look at how things currently stand:

1. Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies
2. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
3. Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants
4. Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox
5. CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
6. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers
7. Adam Wainwright – St. Louis Cardinals
8. Ubaldo Jimenez – Colorado Rockies
9. Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers
10. Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels
11. Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins
12. Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers
13. Cliff Lee – Free Agent
14. Josh Johnson – Florida Marlins
15. Chris Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
16. Clay Buchholz – Boston Red Sox
17. Mat Latos – San Diego Padres
18. Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
19. Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves
20. Zack Greinke – Kansas City Royals

Just Missed: Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants; Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies; David Price, Tampa Bay Rays; Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels; Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins

• For as good as Ubaldo Jimenez was for the first two months of the season, he had some real struggles (at times) after that.  There’s no doubt he’s entrenched himself as one of the elite starting pitchers in the game, but his .273 BABIP could really regress.  We’ll touch on him again in much more detail, but I wouldn’t over draft him based on his early season performance.
• Where Cliff Lee ultimately lands will help determine exactly where he belongs on these rankings.  His spot is probably the most in flux at this point.
• Surprised at Mat Latos’ presence?  His performance at Petco Park alone (2.59 ERA) gives us a lot to like.  When you add in his strikeout upside (10.6 minor league K/9) and solid control, there is reason to believe he could develop into a SP1 this season.  He emerged last season and should continue to be one of the better options available.
• Is Zack Greinke going to be traded or not?  For now, he’ll hang on at the bottom of these rankings, after he struggled in 2010, but if he gets traded to a contender, his value will increase significantly.  If he doesn’t, he is likely to find himself off the list completely.
• Wainwright or Kershaw?  Kershaw or Wainwright?  That’s certainly going to be an interesting debate as the offseason progresses.
• Yovani Gallardo has the stuff to be among the best of the best, if he could only put it together for a full season (5.77 ERA after the All Star Break).  His overall numbers are nothing to complain about (3.84 ERA, 200 K), but there is so much more that could.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Whose too high?  Whose too low?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

By many accounts, Ryan Braun disappointed in 2010.  A certainty in the first round heading into the year, his performance has left many fantasy owners on the fence on whether they should once again spend an early-round pick on him.

Let’s take a look (please note, when I talk about the first round, I am referring to a standard, 12-team league):

2010 Campaign: Braun “struggled” en route to hitting .304 with 25 HR, 103 RBI, 101 R and 14 SB.  Granted, the numbers were a regression across the board (he hit .320 with 32 HR, 114 RBI, 113 R and 20 SB in 2009), but are they really numbers that we should be upset with?

There were only nine players in baseball who had at least 100 RBI and 100 R in 2010 and only one other was an outfielder (Carlos Gonzalez).  It certainly is an accomplishment that is often overlooked, but one that is extremely important to fantasy owners.

What happened: The struggles of Prince Fielder appeared to hurt Braun, as the Brewers toyed with flipping the two in the lineup.  It quickly became clear that Braun excels in the third spot, but struggled when moved into the cleanup role:

• Hitting Third – .330, 22 HR, 81 RBI in 464 AB
• Hitting Fourth – .243, 3 HR, 21 RBI in 136 AB

We’ve discussed Fielder’s struggles with runners in scoring position in 2010 before (.233, 2 HR, 47 RB), numbers that surely can’t continue.  That alone should help Braun improve on his numbers in 2011.

Outside of that black hole, the peripherals appear to be consistent:

• Braun posted a BABIP of .331, compared to a career mark of .336
• His fly ball rate was 34.9%, compared to a 34.1% mark in 2009
• His HR/FB rate was at 14.0%, compared to 17.8% for his career (this is the one number that you have to expect him to improve upon in 2011)

Yes, his average was worse at home (.266) than on the road (.336), but that is not something to be concerned about.  His BABIP at home was .275, compared to .381 on the road, meaning while one will likely rise, the other will fall.  There’s nothing to be concerned about there.

His power did struggle consistently in 2010, never hitting more than six home runs in a month (September).  While that could be a concern, he’s only had four months in his career of more than seven.  In 2009 when he hit 32 HR, he never had more than seven in a month.

What to expect in 2011: In fact, he improved on his strikeout rate for the fourth consecutive season (down to 17.0%).  If he can maintain that, coupled with a likely improvement in the power department, his average should again be well above .300. 

In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he challenged .320, as he has done twice in his four year Major League career.

There is also reason to believe that the power could easily rebound to around 30, if not more.  Couple that with the consistent threat that he steals 15-20 bases in a season, and he’s appealing right off the bat.

Throw in an improvement from Prince Fielder, likely locking him into potentially going 100/100 for the third consecutive season, and there is a lot to like. 

The fact is, very few players in baseball can hit .300 while going 25/15 (if not better), as well as going 100/100.

Just to make things even more appealing, outfield is not as deep as it once was.  Getting a player of his ability at the position is extremely alluring.

It’s just too much value to overlook.  For me, Braun is a lock in the first round.

What about for you?  Would you select Braun in the first round of 2011?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our previous first-round pick analysis articles:

• Ryan Howard

Also make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Did Rickie Weeks finally put things together in 2010?  He’s been talked about as a potential breakout star for some time, though injuries and inability perennially short-circuited those hopes.

The 2010 season was the first time Weeks played in more then 129 games as he posted the following impressive line:

• 651 At Bats
• .269 Batting Average (175 Hits)
• 29 Home Runs
• 83 RBI
• 112 Runs
• 11 Stolen Bases
• .366 On Base Percentage
• .464 Slugging Percentage
• .332 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Now, the question is, can he replicate this success in 2011?

The strikeouts, which have always been at least a little concern, is growing larger and larger as each season passes.  Just look at his marks the past three seasons:

• 2008 – 24.2%
• 2009 – 26.5%
• 2010 – 28.3%

That certainly helps Weeks need a lot of luck to post a usable average.  Does he have the speed to backup his 2010 mark?  He does, but he hadn’t really come close to it the prior three seasons (.287, .277 & .313).  Yes, they were all marred by injuries (he didn’t have more then 475 AB in a year), but it needs to be mentioned all the same.

The power will also play a role in the average (since the fewer home runs, the more balls that are put in play).  I’m just not sold that he can maintain a 29 HR pace.

First of all, he actually only had one month with more then five home runs in 2010 (he hit nine in July).  That’s only the second time since 2006 that he achieved that feat.  If he’s only going to average four or five home runs a month, it’s impossible to imagine him replicating a mark of 29.

Secondly, he posted a fly ball rate of 35.8 percent (similar to his career mark of 36.7 percent) and a HR/FB of 17.3 percent (his career mark is 13.7 percent).  I know people are going to point to 2009, when he posted a HR/FB of 19.1 percent, but that came in just 147 AB, too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions from.  Look at his prior three seasons (all at least 359 AB):

• 2006 – 9.1 percent
• 2007 – 13.2 percent
• 2008 – 9.9 percent

Couple the potential drop in power to the decrease in luck and there is a realistic chance that Weeks posts an unusable average.  I would put the odds better that he hits .240 then him hitting .280.

A potential decrease in average and home runs will likely come with a decrease in runs and RBI, as well.  Of course, improvements from Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun will help Weeks at least come close to his run total if he were producing.  If he struggles, it’s no guarantee that he remains hitting atop the Brewers order, which would only further hurt his potential production.

If you couldn’t tell, I’m not a big proponent of Weeks for 2011.  I wouldn’t over reach for him based on his 2009 production because there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical of him repeating those numbers.  I’d consider him more of a last resort option on draft day as opposed to a player I would count on.

What about you?  How do you expect Weeks to perform in 2011?  Can he replicate his 2010 success?

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Orioles have progressed left-handed pitcher Zach Britton slowly since he was drafted in the third round of the 2006 draft out of high school.  In fact, they hadn’t advanced him more then one level in a year, giving him a slow climb through the system.  That came to an end in 2010, however, having pitched in Double- and Triple-A and posting the following numbers:

• 10 Wins
• 153.1 Innings
• 2.70 ERA
• 1.24 WHIP
• 124 Strikeouts (7.3 K/9)
• 51 Walks (3.0 BB/9)
• .300 BABIP

His strength lays in his ability to generate groundballs.  Baseball America, who recently ranked him as the Orioles second best prospect for 2011, said the following:

“Britton has the best sinker in the minor leagues and generated a 2.8 groundout/airout ratio last season. Showing more than just good action, his fastball sits in the low 90s and peaks at 94 mph. His slider is also a plus pitch, though at times throws it too hard while trying to get more break out of it. His changeup has developed to the point where he’s willing to throw it behind in the count and use it to get quick outs rather than strikeouts.”

In 2010 he posted a HR/9 of 0.4, which certainly helps backup the idea of generating a significant number of groundballs.  Over his minor league career, his mark is 0.45, including allowing just three home runs in 66.1 innings at Triple-A in 2010.  It’s certainly an asset that will help him excel in the Major Leagues.

The strikeout number is not overly impressive, though he has been better at all three levels he’s pitched at from 2009.  His career minor league mark is at 7.3, but he had set a career high of 8.4 at High-A in 2009.  His splits this past season were promising considering he improved as he moved up:

• Double-A (87.0 innings) – 7.0
• Triple-A (66.1 innings) – 7.6

With a fastball in the mid-90s, there certainly is reason to believe that he could improve this mark as he matures.  At 23 years old, he certainly has a lot of growth ahead of him. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him post a strikeout rate of around 7.0 in the Majors upon making his debut.

His control has been extremely consistent (3.3 for his career), and his 3.1 mark at Triple-A this season is promising.  Is it an elite number?  No, it’s not, but it is certainly more then usable.

He has the borderline triumvirate of peripherals that fantasy owner’s lust for:

• He generates a lot of groundballs.
• He strikes out some batters with the stuff to improve.
• He has a solid walk rate.

There’s a ton to like, though he would have to call the American League East home.  Having to pitch against the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jays consistently hurts his stock, despite all of the potential.

It’s not like we haven’t seen pitchers come to excel in the AL East, as you don’t have to look any further then Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz for that.  However, to think Britton is going to step in and match the type of production of either of them would be a mistake, to say the least.

It’s possible that Britton develops into a pitcher like that, in time, but not yet.  He will likely make his Major League debut this season, but don’t look for him to make a fantasy impact.  Those in long-term keeper leagues should certainly stash him, otherwise he’s probably not worth investing in.

What are your thoughts of Britton?  Could he be fantasy viable in 2011?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our other prospect reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:

• Archer, Chris
• Iglesias, Jose
• Kipnis, Jason
• Lawrie, Brett
• Mesoraco, Devin
• Pineda, Michael
• Revere, Ben

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With Trevor Hoffman ticketed out of Milwaukee via free agency, it would appear that John Axford is primed to assume the full-time closing duties. 

Obviously, if that is the case, he is going to be viable in all fantasy formats.  The question, however, is if he is a closer we should target on draft day.

When Hoffman struggled, Axford stepped in and did a solid job as the closer, posting the following line: 8 W, 24 SV, 58.0 IP, 2.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 76 K (11.8 K/9), 27 BB (4.2 BB/9), .319 BABIP.

You have to love the strikeout rate, which has improved from his 9.9 K/9 over his minor league career.  That includes impressive numbers at Triple-A (10.1 K/9 in 33.0 innings in ‘09). 

It also comes courtesy of a fastball that averaged 94.9 mph, so it’s hard to argue that he can’t be a source of strikeouts.

The major concern is his control, which wasn’t impressive to begin with.  However, he was even worse in the minor leagues, where he posted a BB/9 of 6.1.  At Triple-A in ‘09, his walk rate was 5.2.

His walk rate regressed as the season went on.  In the first half he posted a 3.8 mark vs. his second half mark of 4.5.  The potential for him to struggle even more has got to be a huge concern, because it could leave his WHIP (minor league career mark of 1.48) close to unusable.

He does a good job of generating groundballs (48.1 percent in ‘10), but his 2.4 percent HR/FB seems a bit hard to believe. 

Yes, he also did a good job of keeping the ball in the ballpark in the minor leagues (0.5 HR/9), but in ‘10 he was at 0.2.  It’s just easy to imagine that he falls off there, which in turn will hurt his other numbers.

We all know that relief pitchers are quirky.  It’s possible that he posts a great BABIP, offsetting the other regressions potentially hanging over him.  However, is that something we want to bank on?

The strikeout rate makes Axford an alluring option, but with control problems that could hang over him, there is not even a guarantee that he locks down the job for the full season. 

Is he going to be worth drafting?  Absolutely, but I would have him ranked somewhere in the bottom third of the league at this point.

What about you?  Do you consider him one of the better closers in the league?

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Victor Martinez is one of the best catchers in baseball.

No one is going to argue that. But when he signed with the Detroit Tigers, you have to wonder if it was a positive move for his fantasy value. 

Over the past seven seasons, he has actually had 162 at-bats at Comerica Park (thanks to playing many games against them while an member of the Indians). His numbers there certainly are not very awe-inspiring—he hit just .216 with four home runs, 21 RBI and 15 runs scored.

Obviously, it is not a huge sample size, but it is not a small one either. Then again, hitting in front of Miguel Cabrera certainly will give things a different feel (though we have no clue at this point how the lineup will be set up). 

While that may give him a better chance to score runs, the move in general could hurt his home run and RBI potential.

In 2010 he hit 20 home runs, 10 at home and 10 on the road. Given his struggles in Comerica Park, you have to at least be slightly concerned that his home-run total takes a small hit. 

He’s always been a 20-23 home-run hitter. Last season, he actually posted a fly ball rate of 41.9 percent, his highest mark since 2004. 

It wouldn’t be a surprise if that number regressed.

Couple that with the new ballpark and seeing him fall just short of 20 homers would not be a surprise.

As for the RBI, the top of the Tigers’ lineup just isn’t going to be the same as the Red Sox. We will talk about Austin Jackson in much more detail in the near future, but it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see him regress, potentially significantly.

Without names like Dustin Pedroia or Jacoby Ellsbury hitting in front of him, the opportunities to drive in runs could be lower. Last season, he had 79 RBI, though he was also limited to 493 at bats. 

I would think he would still have at least that, though 90 now appears to be his upside potential (as opposed to reaching 100 in Boston).

The Tigers could utilize him as the DH in an effort to limit the wear and tear on his body (especially with Alex Avila in place). But they have also been one of the most aggressive teams thus far. 

It wouldn’t be a big surprise to see them make another move or two. So drawing any final conclusions on the roster or how he will be fully utilized would be a mistake.

At this point, you have to still love Martinez as a catcher, but his value does take a small hit with the move. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see his power struggle a bit and the RBI opportunities could regress as well.

The Tigers’ lineup construction will play a huge role, but with their aggressiveness, it’s impossible to know how things will be. There have been rumors of them signing another big bat, which would drastically change everything.

This is not enough to change his ranking as one of the elite at his position (at least for now), given his ability to hit right around .300. But the gap between him and the next group got a little bit smaller.

What are your thoughts on the signing? How does it affect Martinez’ value? 

Is he still an elite catcher in your eyes?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

As a way to both identify sleepers and help prepare owners in case they miss a player they were targeting, this is another new series of articles that I am going to be doing on the site. Let me know what you think; if you have any suggestions let me know either here or via e-mail.

With that, let’s get going.

Shortstop is one of the thinner positions for fantasy owners to try and fill in 2011.  There are two premier options then a series of question marks.  One of the mid-level players owners may target is Alexei Ramirez, who has proven that despite a consistent slow start in April, by year’s end his numbers will be more than usable.

For a more in depth look at my thoughts on Ramirez, click here for an article I previously wrote.

The bottom line with Ramirez is while he has shown 20/20 potential, he isn’t quite up to that level.  At 29-years-old (he’ll turn 30 in September), there is a good chance that what we’ve seen is exactly what we are going to get:

• He seems to be about a 20 HR hitter, though there is room for potentially a few more
• He has the potential to score runs, as he’s improved in all three seasons in the Major Leagues and could potentially find a spot in the No. 2 hole of the White Sox lineup (though, a better walk rate would certainly help)
• He doesn’t appear to have great potential on the base paths, as he has been successful on just 40 of 62 attempts over his Major League career
• He is a solid average hitter with a good eye at the plate, but he’s not likely to be a .300 plus hitter

There’s no arguing that, given the lack of true top tier fantasy options, Ramirez is going to be a solid option in all formats.  However, are you willing to use a fifth, sixth or seventh round pick on someone who appears to be around a .280, 20 HR, 15 SB option?

If not, the answer for you is to wait until significantly later in your draft, where a potential steal sits in the Nationals’ Ian Desmond.  In his first full Major League season, he hit .269 with 10 HR, 65 RBI, 59 runs and 17 SB in 525 AB.

At 25-years-old, however, there is certainly room for growth in these numbers.

He’s never shown elite power, so it’s hard to imagine him developing into a 18-24 HR hitter, much like Ramirez currently is.  Still, he hit 10 last season with a HR/FB of 7.7 percent.  In 2008 at Double-A he hit 12 HR in 323 AB, so maybe, just maybe, he can add a few more HR as he gets older and stronger. 

Basically, he’s probably a 13-16 HR hitter, which is close enough to Ramirez.  If he could improve on a 52.7 percent groundball rate, more power would certainly come, but at this point it’s hard to expect that.

The speed is something he has already shown, and he does have the potential to reach 20 plus.  He’s had as many as 33 in a season (back in 2005) and had 22 in 2009 between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors. 

He spent a lot of time at the bottom of the Nationals order, but they also gave him 184 AB hitting second (.326, four HR, 19 RBI, nine SB).  They clearly are going to let him run, but if the Nationals opt to hit him second, I would say 20 SB is a given.

The average is a slight concern, hitting .269 despite posting a BABIP of .317.  Last season he posted a strikeout rate of 20.8 percent, which when coupled with the lack of excessive power, is a problem. 

Over his minor league career he posted a strikeout rate of 21.9 percent, though in 2009 between Double and Triple-A he did post a 20.4 percent mark.  It is possible that, at his age, he continues to improve there, but it would appear that .280 may be his upside.

Obviously, the comparison is not perfect.  If Desmond hits his highs, it looks like he could match Ramirez, but let’s not consider Ramirez a lock to replicate his 2010 success either.  Remember, in 2009 he hit .277 with 15 HR and 14 SB.

Let’s look at it statistic-by-statistic:

• Average: Ramirez has more upside, though it wouldn’t be surprising if both hit around .275
• Home Runs: Ramirez definitely has the advantage, with his floor (probably around 16) around Desmond’s apparent ceiling.  Still, Ramirez at 20 and Desmond at 15 is not a drastic difference, especially from a position where many of your competitors won’t get much power.
• RBI: Ramirez has never had more then 77 in a season, so there’s no reason to think that he’ll surpass 85 in 2010; Desmond had 65 in his rookie season and could easily be in the 70-75 range depending on where he hits
• Runs: For both Ramirez and Desmond, their team’s offseason moves and where they ultimately hit in the lineup will go a long way in determining this, but like the RBI the two should be pretty close
• Stolen Bases: This is the area that Desmond has the advantage, as he could be in the 20-25 range while Ramirez will be around 15

Ramirez certainly has the higher upside overall, but there is a fairly good chance that at the end of 2011 the two could be virtually even in value.  Ramirez is going to have a little more power, Desmond a little more speed.

Would I rather have Ramirez?  Absolutely, as displayed by my initial shortstop rankings (click here to view), but if that doesn’t work out I wouldn’t be upset grabbing Desmond and pairing him with someone like Stephen Drew or Rafael Furcal (or, if you are really lucky, Starlin Castro).  Basically, another high upside gamble and hope that one of them pays off.

What about you?  Is Desmond someone you wouldn’t mind as a fallback option?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

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This is one of the oddest years for fantasy baseball owners, as after the first three picks the first round is extremely wide open.  It wouldn’t be a stretch to see someone selected fifth or sixth in one draft, only to be selected in the early-to-mid second round in the next.  Therefore we are going to analyze all of the potential first-round picks, looking at their pros and cons to determine if they should be selected in the first round or left for later rounds.

Up first, let’s look at Ryan Howard.

2010 Campaign: The Phillies lineup suffered from a lot of injuries, which certainly had an impact on Howard’s production.  Howard himself was not immune from the problem, playing in 143 games in 2010 after appearing in 322 out of 324 games in 2008 & 2009.

The impact was certainly seen in his numbers.  If you didn’t know any better, his line of .276 with 31 HR, 108 RBI and 87 R would look fine.  However, you have to realize that from 2006-2009 his low in home runs was 45, his low in RBI was 136 and his low in runs was 94.

What happened: The injury cost him the majority of August (40 AB), but what is really noticeable is that Howard just never had a “big” month.  He has always been a slower starter, hitting no more then five home runs in an April since 2006.  What he has always been able to do, however, is routinely put up double-digit home run months after that.  Just look at his number of 9+ HR months by year:

• 2006 – 4 (including a 14 home run August)
• 2007 – 3
• 2008 – 3
• 2009 – 2
• 2010 – 0

His biggest month in 2010 came in July, when he hit eight home runs.  At 31-years-old, it’s hard to believe that he’s simply lost the power that he once displayed, but there certainly has been a downward trend of sorts.

Obviously, in that ballpark, you have to think that he’s going to continue to hit home runs, even though he has never been dependent on Citizen’s Bank Ballpark for his power stroke.  In 2010, he hit 16 HR at home and 15 HR on the road.  In 2009, he actually hit 27 of his 45 HR on the road.

It also should be noted that Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley also missing a significant period of time didn’t help matters.  Those are two of the biggest and best bats in the Phillies lineup and without them, everyone else’s numbers are going to struggle.

What to expect in 2011: Howard is going to hit for power, I don’t think anyone is going to question that.  The question is, can he return to 40+ HR power?  His HR/FB rate has declined the past three seasons:

• 2008 – 31.8%
• 2009 – 25.4%
• 2010 – 21.1%

He hit 31 HR in limited AB and with a career low HR/FB, so there is plenty of reason to believe that, if healthy, he’s going to come extremely close to that mark.  With only two hitters reaching 40 HR in 2010, that instantly gives him credibility.

He’s also going to pick up RBI and R, especially if the rest of the lineup can stay healthy along with him.  It’s a power packed lineup that’s going to score runs, and Howard is right at the center of it.

The problem is that he strikes out a ton (32.0 percent for his career), which makes it nearly impossible for him to even come close to .300.  In fact, it’s probably more likely that he hits .250 despite all of the power.  At a position where you can find other options who will hit 30-35 HR and are almost guaranteed to hit .285+, that’s a huge negative.

The Verdict: Howard is among the premier power hitters in the game, but he plays one of the deepest positions and has the potential to struggle, potentially dramatically, in the average department.  That puts a huge question mark over his head, making him better suited to be an early-to-mid second round pick in my book.

I’d much rather take a player at a weaker position in the mid-to-late in the first round, like a Robinson Cano, Troy Tulowitzki or Evan Longoria and hope that a Howard, Prince Fielder or Mark Teixeira are available when my second-round pick comes around.  That just puts you in a better scenario all around.

What about you?  Is Howard a player you would consider in the first round?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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In his first full MLB season, Casey McGehee exceeded all expectations.  Considering his minor league track record, it didn’t necessarily take much.  Hitting primarily in the fifth spot in the lineup, he posted the following line:

• 610 At Bats
• .285 Batting Average (174 Hits)
• 23 Home Runs
• 104 RBI
• 70 Runs
• One Stolen Base
• .337 On Base Percentage
• .464 Slugging Percentage
• .306 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Generally, hitting behind Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder would not generate so many RBI opportunities.  However, 2010 was no ordinary year.  With runners in scoring position, Fielder hit just .233 with two HR and 47 RBI (in comparison, he hit .296 with 13 HR and 93 RBI in 2009).  In fact, he managed just 83 RBI after having at least 102 in each of the previous three seasons (and 141 in 2009).

In other words, there were certainly extra opportunities for McGehee that, under normal circumstances, we should not expect.  It’s impossible to expect Fielder to struggle as badly in 2011, meaning there could be a dramatic fall coming in McGehee’s most endearing statistic.  It’s impossible to think otherwise.

In regards to his power, there is nothing unrealistic in his peripheral numbers, with a 35.7 percent fly ball rate and a 12.5 percent HR/FB.  At 28 years old, it’s not necessarily a surprise that he developed his power of late, but there is really nothing in his minor league track record to support another 20+ home run season.

In 2008, he had 497 AB in the Pacific Coast League, hitting just 12 HR.  In 2006 in the PCL, he hit 11 HR in 497 AB.  It’s a league that notoriously is very homer happy (as a comparison, in 2010 there were six players with at least 29 HR including Mike Carp, who had 29 HR in 409 AB), yet in nearly 1,000 AB he had just 23, the same number he hit in 610 AB in 2010.

His average is solid and repeatable, with a very realistic BABIP and a good ability to consistently make contact (16.7 percent strikeout rate).  Still, there doesn’t seem much hope that he improves on the average significantly, barring a lot of luck falling in his favor.  In 2,577 minor league AB, he hit .279.

The runs are not an awe inspiring number, and hitting behind the big guns in the lineup, it’s not too likely that he improves upon it.  He doesn’t have a big OBP, and without a big bat behind him, he’s just not going to score enough.

Of course, he is eligible at one of the shallowest positions in baseball, helping him a little bit.  Of course, in 2010 there were 12 third baseman with more runs scored, and that doesn’t include names like Aramis Ramirez or Pedro Alvarez.

There are definitely numerous reasons to plan on avoiding McGehee on draft day.  Even with his impressive 2010 campaign and playing a shallow position, I’d look towards him as a depth option, at best.

There just isn’t enough upside to justify using him.  In fact, the deck appears stacked for him to suffer a major regression.

What are your thoughts on McGehee?  Can he replicate his 2010 success?  If not, how far do you think he’s going to regress?

Make sure to check back on Tuesday, as the Rotoprofessor Roundtable will weigh in with their projections on McGehee.

Make sure to check out some of our other 2011 projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com