Kuzul

There’s a lot of debate on how teams should handle young starting pitchers.  Is it a good idea to get their feet wet in a Major League bullpen? 

There is history of the idea working well, but you don’t have to look further then Joba Chamberlain to find detractors of the philosophy.

While that wasn’t the only issue with the way Chamberlain was handled, it certainly was a factor.  That’s why it was interesting to see the debate rage on with the Yankees cross-town rivals in 2010, as the Mets debated on how they should handle Jenrry Mejia. 

Did they want to use him in the Major League bullpen or did he have more long-term value in the minor leagues, working as a starting pitcher?

They opted to give him a taste of the Major Leagues, starting him in the bullpen where he had mixed results (3.25 ERA over 27.2 innings). 

By the end of June the team decided to send him back to the minor leagues and stretch him back out as a starting pitcher. 

He looked great in nine starts (42.1 innings), pitching across four levels to the tune of a 1.28 ERA and 45 Ks.  Unfortunately, two separate arm injuries put a damper on his success. 

He suffered from a strained rotator cuff while being stretched out at Double-A, and then when he was recalled to the Major Leagues to join the starting rotation in September, he again strained a muscle in his shoulder, ending his season prematurely.

Were the injuries caused by his lack of work over the first two plus months of the season?  It’s impossible to answer that question, but you had better be sure that skeptics will point to that as the cause.

Either way, you have to think that his days of being considered for the bullpen are behind him.  If he breaks camp with the Mets as part of the rotation or not is a different question, but that will be determined by the offseason moves of new General Manager Sandy Alderson. 

At 21 years old, Mejia certainly will be one of the candidates for a spot.

He didn’t impress in September, posting a 7.94 ERA in three starts (11.1 innings).  During that time he had five strikeouts and five walks, though one of those starts did come against the Phillies.

Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked Mejia as the Mets top prospect saying:

“Mejia’s fastball ranges from 90-96 mph, and it hit 98 on a handful of occasions in 2009. He’s able to maintain his velocity late into games, and his fastball has so much cutting and sinking action that it befuddles hitters. He induces a lot of groundouts and broken bats.

“They’re asking me if it’s a slider,” said Josh Thole, who caught Mejia with Binghamton. “I said, ‘It’s 94 (mph), guys. I don’t think that’s a slider.’ ” Mejia’s changeup is a plus pitch at times, resembling a splitter with its 81-84 velocity and drop.”

The problem is that his slider, which is his third pitch, still needs more work.  That’s one of the reasons why he needed innings in the minor leagues and his time spent in the Majors may have stunted his growth.

During his minor league career, he’s posted a 2.68 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 8.8 K/9.  He has an electric fastball and has the stuff to develop into a tremendous option for both the Mets and fantasy owners, but he needs time to develop. 

The Mets would be best served to start him in the minor leagues again in 2011 and let him continue to get innings under his belt.  He hasn’t even thrown 250 professional innings since being signed out of the Dominican Republic.

Those in deeper leagues can draft him to stash him for the second half, but chances are he’s still a year or two away from making a fantasy impact.

What are your thoughts on Mejia?  Should he open 2011 with the Major League club?  Could he make an impact in 2011?

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:

• Archer, Chris
• Lawrie, Brett
• Mesoraco, Devin
• Pineda, Michael
• Revere, Ben

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Prior to the 2010 season, the widespread belief was that it would be A.J. Pierzynski’s last with the Chicago White Sox, as Tyler Flowers was expected to succeed him as the team’s starting catcher. 

It was a fair assumption, considering he was coming off a year having hit .297 with 15 HR in 353 AB between Double-A and Triple-A.

One year later, the idea that it is a foregone conclusion that Flowers will inherit the job is almost laughable. 

Still one of the bright young catching prospects in the game, he suffered from a miserable season at Triple-A:

346 At Bats
.220 Batting Average (76 Hits)
16 Home Runs
53 RBI
43 Runs
2 Stolen Bases
.334 On Base Percentage
.434 Slugging Percentage
.287 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The problem was the strikeouts, which have to be a major concern.  In 2010, Flowers posted a strikeout rate of 35.0% against Triple-A pitching.  The scary thing is that in the Major Leagues, you would actually expect that number to increase.

Unfortunately his struggles last season did not come out of left field.  In 2009 he actually posted a 30.6% strikeout rate. 

While it may be a little bit on the higher side, there’s little reason to think that he’s not going to strike out a significant number of times.  It is fairly simply, when you strike out that much, it’s impossible to post a good average.

Before you point to his 2009 success, realize that he posted a .391 BABIP that season.  There’s no way he’s replicating that mark.

He does have a good eye at the plate, posting a 13.7% walk rate in 2010 and a 16.0% mark in 2009.  Clearly, that’s not enough, however.

He has decent power and in a full season he could hit 20+ home runs, which certainly would bring him value, but as nothing more than a low-end option.  When you value him, think of a Rod Barajas type:

• 2009 – .226, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 43 R
• 2010 – .240, 17 HR, 47 RBI, 39 R

Yes, he has the potential to hit a few more home runs, but the average and runs scored could be just as bad.  In other words, don’t buy into the hype. 

Even if he is still handed full-time catching duties for the White Sox, his value will only lie in two-catcher formats.

What are your thoughts of Flowers?  Could he be usable in all formats?  Do you even think he’s handed the White Sox job?

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:

• Archer, Chris
• Lawrie, Brett
• Mesoraco, Devin
• Pineda, Michael
• Revere, Ben

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It is almost a foregone conclusion that Jorge Posada will spend significantly more time at DH in 2010, as his days as a full-time catcher appear to be over.

While that should certainly help keep him healthy, which will make fantasy owners happy, does it really matter?  Does he bring enough to the plate that justifies using him, even in one-catcher formats?

It sure didn’t appear so in 2010:

383 At Bats
.248 Batting Average (95 Hits)
18 Home Runs
57 RBI
49 Runs
3 Stolen Bases
.357 On Base Percentage
.454 Slugging Percentage
.287 Batting Average on Balls in Play

A lot of his numbers were down due to his lack of playing time.  If he had gotten 500 AB, the RBI and HR both would have been extremely attractive numbers from a catcher. 

If the Yankees do utilize him more as a designated hitter, you would have to think he’s going to get more at bats, but I’m still not sure he’d be a lock to reach 500.  The Yankees in general are an aging team and they are going to need the DH slot to give guys like Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez a little more rest, yet keep their bats in the lineup.  I just don’t see the Yankees utilizing the DH role for any one player, so if the Yankees don’t trust Posada behind the plate, he’s going to find himself on the bench.

Of course, that assumes that playing DH will allow him to stay healthy.  He’s only had 500 AB once since 2003 (he had 506 in 2007).  Over the past three seasons he’s had 168, 383 and 383.

He’ll be 39 years old entering the season, so even in a limited role there’s no guarantee his body holds up.

You also have to wonder a bit if playing in the new Yankees Stadium has helped to buoy his numbers:

• Home – .288, 11 HR, 33 RBI, 32 R
• Road – .205, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 17 R

It’s actually the second consecutive year that he had a similar split, as you can see from his 2009 marks:

• Home – .325, 14 HR, 44 RBI, 33 R
• Road – .245, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 22 R

Playing in the Yankees lineup is going to help give him ample opportunities to drive in runs, no matter where he hits.  They are stocked, from top to bottom, so chances are he’s going to consistently come up with men on base.

However, we are talking about a 39-year-old catcher with a lengthy list of injury concerns who we wouldn’t want to use when playing on the road.  Does that sound like an attractive option?  In two-catcher formats he’ll have value, but in one-catcher formats, he’s just too risky of a proposition. 

I’d love to have him as a bench option that I can plug in when he’s playing at home (and maybe when he’s hot on the road), but that’s about it. 

What about you?  Is Posada someone you would like to own in 2011?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 Projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Willingham, Josh

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Third base is one of the toughest positions to predict as we head into 2011.  Even at the top of the rankings there are a ton of questions, but as you get into the middle of the pack you really just don’t know what to expect.  Let’s take a look at how things currently look, but it is almost a certainty that these will get shuffled as the offseason progresses:

1. Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays
2. Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees
3. Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals
4. David Wright – New York Mets
5. Michael Young – Texas Rangers
6. Jose Bautista – Toronto Blue Jays
7. Aramis Ramirez – Chicago Cubs
8. Adrian Beltre – Boston Red Sox
9. Pedro Alvarez – Pittsburgh Pirates
10. Martin Prado – Atlanta Braves
11. Pablo Sandoval – San Francisco Giants
12. Mark Reynolds – Arizona Diamondbacks
13. Casey McGehee – Milwaukee Brewers
14. Scott Rolen – Cincinnati Reds
15. Ian Stewart – Colorado Rockies

Thoughts:

• A shallow position got a lot shallower in 2010, with people like Kevin Youkilis and Chone Figgins losing eligibility.
• Can Jose Bautista possibly replicate his 2010 success?  It certainly appears to be highly unlikely at this point.  I’ll really dig into my thoughts on him as we get closer to drafts, but I have a huge fear that he could go “homer happy”, given his 54.5% fly ball rate in 2010.  With the tremendous number of strikeouts, if the ball starts to fall short, his average is going to suffer.  It was a magical year, but with there being a good chance he falls to the 35 HR range, and the potential for him to struggle with his average, he’s not a Top 5 option for me.
• Can Alex Rodriguez stay healthy?  That’s the big question, though we know he’s going to produce even in limited at bats (125 RBI in 522 AB in ‘10).  He’s getting older at age 35, so his days as one of the top 3B are probably limited.  Still, with his upside, it’s hard to argue selecting him for one year.  If he’s healthy he could be the top third baseman in the league, but he hasn’t played in more then 138 games in the past three years.  Still, it’s hard to pick against him.
• You can almost jumble No. 7 through 12 any way you want depending on your risk tolerance.  Can Pablo Sandoval and Mark Reynolds rebound?  Will Adrian Beltre repeat his success?  Will Pedro Alvarez take the next step?  There are certainly a lot of question marks.
• I gave my projection of Michael Young recently, supporting why he’s a Top 5 option.  Make sure you read it for yourself by clicking here.
• If Ryan Zimmerman had stayed healthy in 2010, we could be talking about his second consecutive 30/100/100 season.  That probably would change your opinion on him, wouldn’t it?  Of course, the potential loss of Adam Dunn has to be taken into account, bringing down his value slightly.  The debate between him, Rodriguez and David Wright is going to be one that goes on all offseason.  We will surely revisit this in the coming weeks, but Zimmerman definitely has the potential to leapfrog Rodriguez in these rankings.  In keeper leagues, it’s an easy call.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Whose too high?  Whose too low?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

There were a lot of players whose average was based on a lot of luck in 2010.  What are the prospects of them replicating those numbers in the upcoming season? 

Will they continue to hold value?  Let’s break them down, one-by-one, and take a look:

1. Austin Jackson – Detroit Tigers – .396

We all kept waiting for the regression to come for Jackson, but it just never seemed to.  Despite posting a strikeout rate of 27.5%, Jackson’s luck helped him post a .293 average. 

Can we realistically expect that to continue?  He had a minor-league strikeout mark of 23.6%, so that number is extremely believable. 

With his speed, a higher than normal BABIP is not outrageous, but this was a bit over-the-top.  Look for his luck to turn in 2011, meaning his average will likely fall significantly.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him hit .260ish, and without power and only 24 SB, his value is likely going to take a significant hit.

2. Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers – .390

It was a magical season, buoyed by an unrealistic BABIP.  Hamilton is a great player and will remain one of the elite, but he’s just not likely to hit .359 once again. 

As long as he can stay healthy, I’m talking .300/30/100/100 type of value.  People looking for a reason to downgrade him will point to the BABIP, but you really shouldn’t.

The only concern is his health.  Outside of that, consider him among the elite outfielders in the game.

3. Carlos Gonzalez – Colorado Rockies – .384

Many were expecting a breakout 2010 campaign and boy, did he deliver.  However, the BABIP is just one of the questions that surround him entering the 2011 campaign.

Can he deliver a 20.4% HR/FB again?  If not, that drop, along with the inevitable fall in BABIP, is going to cause his average to fall significantly.  It will also mean fewer runs and RBI, further hurting his potential value.

Don’t get me wrong, Gonzalez should be among the best outfielders available, but I just don’t see him repeating his .336, 34 HR, 117 RBI, 111 R, 26 SB campaign.  That said, even if he falls to .300/27/95/95/20, with the potential for more, what is there not to like? 

A regression is likely coming, but there’s little to be concerned about.  We’ll talk about him in a lot more detail in the coming months, however, so I’ll save the bulk of the discussion for later.

4. Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds – .361

Like the two names before him, his value isn’t solely entrenched in his average (.324 in 2010), so a regression here is not going to be devastating. 

He has shown tremendous power and RBI potential, as well as adding double-digit stolen bases from a position where you rarely see it.  At a deep position, he’s emerged as one of the elite.

5. Omar Infante – Atlanta Braves – .355

Unfortunately for Infante, he has no power and no speed.  In fact, is he guaranteed to even have an everyday job entering 2011? 

He’s a career .274 hitter (who hit .321 in 2010) and has always been more of a utility player. 

With even a small fall in his BABIP, his value disintegrates, since average is all he has going for him (8 HR, 7 SB in ‘10).  Even with full-time playing time, he’s not worth considering.

6t. Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks – .354

He’s posted big BABIP for the past two years, having posted a .360 mark in 2009.  Does that mean we should come to believe it?  Unfortunately, I don’t think so. 

The hope has to be that he can reduce his strikeout rate (30.7% in 2010) and rediscover his power (he went from 26 HR to 17 HR in 2010) in order to maintain a usable average.

Chances are he’s going to regress in the BABIP department, so if he can’t do those two things, his average is going to become unusable (he hit .273 in ‘10). 

It’s going to be interesting to watch how this plays out, because he has the potential to be one of the elite players in the game.  We will certainly revisit him as the season gets closer.

6t. Colby Rasmus – St. Louis Cardinals – .354

His feud with Tony La Russa and whether he asked out of St. Louis helped to mask that some of his success was buoyed by a lot of luck. 

However, before we say that he’s going to post an unusable average (he was at .276 in ‘10), he saw his strikeout rate go from 20.0% in 2009 to 31.9% in 2010. 

Considering his 22.7% minor league strikeout rate, there’s little reason to believe he’s that bad.  Even with a fall in his BABIP, he should continue to post a usable average.

8. Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners – .353

What is there to say about Ichiro that we don’t already know?  He has a career BABIP of .357 and is one of the best hitters in the game.  There’s no reason to expect anything less from him in 2011.

9. Jayson Werth – Philadelphia Phillies – .352

We have to expect a regression, but we can’t get a full grasp on his potential value in the average department until we know where he is going to play. 

If he leaves Philadelphia, the power potential may fall, which will certainly help contribute to a lower average.  We’ll revisit him once he signs via free agency.

10. Joe Mauer – Minnesota Twins – .348

Catchers just aren’t supposed to do this, but year after year, Mauer delivers.  With a career BABIP of .344, there’s little reason to think that he’s going to fall off in any way, shape or form. 

While we learned in 2010 that his power surge in 2009 was likely an aberration (28 HR), he once again proved that he’s among the elite average hitters in the game (.327 in ‘10).

What are your thoughts on these players?  Who is going to maintain their big 2010 seasons?  Who may regress in 2011?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

There were many surprising performances in 2010, but were any more shocking then Bruce Chen’s?  He’s been around the majors since 1998 and has very rarely proven to be close to a usable option for fantasy owners.  Last season was a different story, however, as he posted the following line:

12 Wins
140.1 Innings
4.17 ERA
1.38 WHIP
98 Strikeouts (6.3 K/9)
57 Walks (3.7 BB/9)
.256 BABIP

A free agent heading into 2010, it’s possible that he returns to Kansas City, but no matter where he lands, the chances are that he is going to not come close to being usable in 2011.  Knowing nothing else about him, his long history of mediocrity (even that may be too nice of a term), tells us that.

When you look at the peripherals, it’s impossible.

The BABIP shows that his 1.38 WHIP was actually a lucky number.  He has a career WHIP of 1.40, but let’s look at the numbers that his 1.59 in 2009 (over 62.1 innings) was based on:

• 6.5 K/9
• 3.6 BB/9
• .296 BABIP

The only difference between 2009 and 2010 is the BABIP, and his ‘09 number is far more believable.  He was a sub par WHIP option in 2010, and the numbers support him being even worse in 2011.  For fantasy owners that’s a scary thought.

He also just doesn’t strikeout enough batters to offset any negatives.  He has been at a 6.5 K/9 or worse every season since 2004.  I know looking at his career mark you may think that there’s hope for improvement (7.0), but he was a much better strikeout pitcher earlier in his career.  At this point, he’s just not.

Worse luck means more baserunners.  More baserunners will inevitably lead to more runs scored against him.  In all honesty, it is far more likely that his ERA is over 5.00 then it is under 4.00.

You also have to wonder exactly how many innings you are going to get from him or if he will find a spot as a full-time starter.  If he doesn’t, then it’s clear he’s a non-factor.  Even if he doesn’t, you shouldn’t care.

Clearly, you can tell that I want nothing to do with Chen in 2011 and neither should you.

What are your thoughts on Chen?  Is there any way you decide to use him in 2011?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our 2011 projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Willingham, Josh

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Selected in the first round of the 2007 draft by the Minnesota Twins, outfielder Ben Revere got his first taste of the Major Leagues in 2010 and could be in line to make an impact in 2011. 

The 22-year-old has shown tremendous speed since making his professional debut, and that could certainly make him an important cog in the Twins lineup.

Before we get into what he can bring to the table in 2011, let’s look at the numbers he posted at Double-A in 2010:

• 361 At Bats
• .305 Batting Average (110 Hits)
• One Home Run
• 23 RBI
• 44 Runs
• 36 Stolen Bases
• .361 On Base Percentage
• .363 Slugging Percentage
• .342 Batting Average on Balls in Play

He brings a good ability to make contact with him, with a strikeout rate of 11.4 percent.  Of course, you would like to see him draw a few more walks, having drawn just 32 in ‘10, a 8.1 percent rate.

Those numbers are very similar to his career minor league rates (1,358 AB):

• Strikeouts—9.3 percent
• Walks—7.6 percent

With the strikeout rate and the BABIP, you have to feel like the average is believable.  Yes, it was at Double-A, so the strikeouts may rise some (as we have seen as he has progressed) and the BABIP may regress a little (though with his speed it likely is maintainable).  Still, it would appear that he should be able to hit for a usable average.

Unfortunately, that’s where the positives come to a screeching halt.  His slugging percentage was abysmal, and has been for two years running now (.369 in 466 AB at High-A in 2009).  He appears to be a singles hitter who doesn’t walk much, which certainly impedes his promise…

As a singles hitter he is not going to drive in many runs (as we saw in 2010).

Without an ability to get on base at a higher rate, he’s not going to bring a big-time total of runs scored (again, like we saw in 2010).

And, simply put, he has no power.

Michael Bourn is not a perfect comparison, given his significantly higher strikeout rate (he posted a 20.4 percent mark in 2010), but the rest of the numbers are fairly consistent (all numbers given are his 2010 statistics):

• 9.8 percent Walk Rate
• .341 OBP
• .346 SLG
• Two Home Runs
• 52 Stolen Bases
• 84 Runs Scored
• 38 RBI

It’s a pretty straightforward comparison, and while Revere has the potential to hit for a higher average due to the strikeouts (Bourn hit .265), it seems like Revere could be an extremely similar player.

While the Twins recently did pick up Jason Kubel’s option, it’s possible that he moves to the DH spot if Jim Thome is not retained.  That would open up the right field spot for Revere, who got a cup of coffee in 2010 and should be given the opportunity to win the job.

Of course, the numbers he’s produced make him more of a potential late-round flier for those in need of speed, especially if he’s not expected to hit near the top of the order.

What are your thoughts on Revere?  Is the comparison to Bourn a fair one?  How good do you think he could be?

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:

• Archer, Chris
• Lawrie, Brett
• Mesoraco, Devin
• Pineda, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It feels like Howie Kendrick has been considered a potential sleeper for the past 10 years.  While it hasn’t quite been that long, as we enter 2011, his age 27 season, the time has finally come for Kendrick to either put up or shut up.

Known as a high-level average guy in the minor leagues, he has perpetually disappointed since making his debut.  Unfortunately for owners, 2010 was no exception:

658 at Bats
.279 Batting Average (172 Hits)
10 Home Runs
75 RBI
67 Runs
14 Stolen Bases
.313 On Base Percentage
.407 Slugging Percentage
.313 Batting Average on Balls in Play

His average was supposed to carry him into stardom, having hit .369 in 290 AB at Triple-A in 2006.  However, you have to realize that the number was based on an incredibly unrealistic .409 BABIP.

In other words, he never stood a chance of matching that type of mark in the Major Leagues.  It was simply impossible.  When you take that aspect of his game out of play, there really is little to get excited about.

While we may want to think Kendrick will add strength, his 6.9 percent HR/FB rate in 2010 is basically a mirror image of his career mark through parts of five seasons (7.0 percent).  Yes, he showed more in 2009, when he posted a 12.2 percent mark, but that is looking more and more like the outlier.

As it is, he barely hits the ball in the air enough to think that even if he posts a better HR/FB, that it’s going to make a major impact.  Last season he posted a 28.1 percent fly ball rate, right along with his 28.5 percent career mark.

With 52 HR in 1,618 minor league career at bats and 32 HR in 1,935 major league career at bats, the truth is in the numbers.  He just is not a big-time power threat.  If he added strength, he could maybe top out at 20, but 15 seems like a much more realistic maximum.

He also is not a big-time threat to steal bases.  His career high is 25, coming all the way back in 2005 when he split time between High-A and Double-A.  In the major leagues, his best mark was last season’s 14 (in 18 attempts).

Unless there’s a dramatic change, you’re looking at a guy who is right around a 15 SB second baseman.

So, you have a player who could go 15/15, which certainly has value. Of course, given his history, it’s just as likely that he falls short there.

He spent a lot of time hitting second, which you would think would bring a lot of opportunities to score runs.  Of course, you need to get on base often for that to happen.  With a meager 4.3 percent walk rate (and a career 3.8 percent mark), his skill set just doesn’t justify him hitting second.

Chances are the Angels address that in the offseason, meaning his potential value is likely going to fall.  He’s not an RBI machine and if there is less opportunity to score runs, its just not a good mix.

The bottom line with Kendrick is that he’s more of a last resort option as a 2B and much better suited to be a middle infielder.  He doesn’t do anything exceptionally well at this point.  A modest average, a little power, a little speed and some run production.  Sounds like a player to target, huh?

What are your thoughts of Kendrick?  Could this be the year he breaks out?  Or, do you side with me and consider him over-hyped in the past?

Make sure to check out our review of other players who struggled in 2010 and their prospects for a rebound:

• Beckett, Josh
• Greinke, Zack
• Hill, Aaron
• Lind, Adam

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The 2010 season saw a changing of the guard atop the second base rankings, with Robinson Cano overtaking Chase Utley in what has become an extremely deep position.  That was just one tough decision among many when it comes to our early rankings. 

Let’s take a look at how things currently look (and keep in mind that these will be updated throughout the offseason):

1. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
2. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
4. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
5. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds
6. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
7. Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays
8. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays
9. Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves
10. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
11. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles
12. Kelly Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks
13. Eric Young Jr., Colorado Rockies
14. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels
15. Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox

Thoughts:

• Brandon Phillips is the toughest player on this list to value at this point, as his role on the Reds will be determined by their offseason activity.  Will he continue to be used atop the order?  Will he be shifted back down to the cleanup spot, where he can drive in significantly more runs?  Time will tell, and it will also ultimately help determine his spot in these rankings.  He’s No. 5 for now, but that certainly can change.
• Can Ian Kinsler stay healthy for the entire season?  Of course, it’s not like he was all that impressive in 2010 anyway, hitting .286 with 9 HR and 15 SB.  Still, we all know what he’s capable of, so for now he’s going to remain near the top of our rankings.
• I discussed just how unlucky Aaron Hill was in 2010 (you can view the article by clicking here) and I would fully expect him to rebound in 2011.  Just to refresh everyone’s memory, I researched back to 1995 and no other hitter in that time has posted a BABIP below .220 (he was at .196 in 2010).  While he’s not likely to repeat his 2009 success, he still has plenty of value.
• I know Rickie Weeks finally stayed healthy and showed us what was possible, but do we really expect him to replicate his success?  He benefited from a .332 BABIP and strikes out a ton.  There’s a good chance he struggles in the average department (especially if his 17.3% HR/FB regresses) and therefore loses a lot of value.  As I do more research, he could be moved up, but we’ll get more into him as the offseason progresses.  At this point, he has potential bust written all over him.
• Brian Roberts is getting up there in age and has seen his stolen base total, his one real redeeming quality, consistently decline over the last few years.  At this point, he’s a low-end option at best.
• The inclusion of Eric Young Jr. is speculative and solely based on the idea of him winning the Rockies second base job.  We all know he has a ton of speed, but if he fails to win the job his value will be nil.
• Ben Zobrist’s spot at No. 8 will probably be one of the more debated rankings on this list.  We’ll discuss his ranking in much more detail in the coming weeks, but I’m not a believer in his 6.0% HR/FB.  If that returns, with the speed he showed, he has the makings of a tremendous steal on draft day.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Whose too high?  Whose too low?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Mets pitching was surprisingly the team’s strength in 2010.  Did it matter in the long run?  Of course not, but with the majority of the starting pitching staff expected back in 2011, they certainly have something to build on.

Front and center in the resurgence was Jonathan Niese, who posted the following line in 2010:

9 Wins
173.2 Innings
4.20 ERA
1.46 WHIP
148 Strikeouts (7.7 K/9)
62 Walks (3.2 BB/9)
.335 BABIP

Simply looking at the ERA and WHIP does not tell the entire story of Niese’s season.  Right off the bat you can see that he was extremely unlucky.  You have to expect that to improve, helping him immediately across the board.

The overall numbers are also somewhat skewed, as he tired and struggled down the stretch.  Just look at his ERAs over the final two months of the season:

• August – 4.43
• September – 7.11

That’s a lot of bad to conclude his season, and certainly overshadowed a ton of good. 

In June and July he made 10 starts, allowing one earned run or less six times.  In three of his other starts he allowed three earned runs.  Only once did he have a dud, allowing six earned runs to the Tigers.

Starts like that are going to happen, but his ability to string that many strong starts together is certainly encouraging.

His peripherals are just as encouraging.

The strikeout and walk numbers are extremely realistic, and comparable to his minor league marks of 8.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.  While you’d like to see his control a little bit better, the numbers are certainly solid and usable.

While he’s not an elite groundball pitcher, he posted a 47.7% mark in 2010.  You would think, playing in a big ballpark, home runs would not have been an issue then.  However, he allowed 20 HR, 11 on the road and nine at home.  His HR/FB was at 11.8%, ninth worst in the league.

Like his BABIP, you would think that he would be able to improve on that number, especially with his first full season under his belt.

With the luck metrics likely turning into his favor and the other numbers already solid, there is a lot to like about Niese for 2011.  Is he going to be an ace?  Of course not, but as a back end of the rotation guy, he’s going to have value in all formats.

• His ERA should be sub-4.00
• His WHIP should be below 1.33
• He has the potential to improve on his strikeouts, potentially pushing a K/9 of 8.0

There’s a lot to like, so in the last few rounds, when you are looking for starting pitching depth, he’s certainly worth consideration.

What are your thoughts on Niese?  Could he be viable in 2011?  How good do you think he could be?

Make sure to check out our 2011 projections:

• Butler, Billy
• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Willingham, Josh

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com