Kuzul

It’s never too early to start looking towards Draft Day 2011, is it? 

Let’s kick off our offseason rankings taking a look at my Top 15 catchers for 2011.

Keep in mind that these will be updated throughout the offseason, depending on player movement and finalizing my projections:

1. Joe Mauer – Minnesota Twins
2. Victor Martinez – Boston Red Sox
3. Brian McCann – Atlanta Braves
4. Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians
5. Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants
6. Miguel Montero – Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Kurt Suzuki – Oakland Athletics
8. Geovany Soto – Chicago Cubs
9. Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles
10. Mike Napoli – Los Angeles Angels
11. Jorge Posada – New York Yankees
12. Miguel Olivo – Colorado Rockies
13. Yadier Molina – St. Louis Cardinals
14. J.P. Arencibia – Toronto Blue Jays
15. John Buck – Toronto Blue Jays

Thoughts:

• After the Top 11 catchers, you can almost start picking names out of a hat to fill out the rankings. At this point, I’m going with these names, but they will likely move around as things progress during the offseason.
• John Buck is at the bottom of this list, but he really scares me for 2011.  I can’t see his average continuing (he hit .281 thanks to a .335 BABIP).  Where he lands in free agency will ultimately determine his value. He can hit for power, however, which gives him an edge over players like John Jaso.
• J.P. Arencibia debuted with a bang, then fell off and ultimately didn’t get much playing time down the stretch. Still, with a Blue Jays team that has other holes to fill, it makes sense for them to turn the keys to Arencibia. After hitting .301 with 32 HR and 85 RBI at Triple-A, they certainly have no reason not to.
• Kurt Suzuki was disappointing in 2010, hitting .242 with 13 HR and 71 RBI. That certainly wasn’t the breakout anyone had been expecting, was it? He also suffered from a .245 BABIP, however, and with more support in the middle of the lineup, the production in general should increase. At 27 years old, he certainly has the potential to put together a significantly better season. We’ll be getting into more detail on him in the near future.
• Another catcher who disappointed was Matt Wieters; the next big catcher hit just .249 with 11 HR and 55 RBI on the year. This just goes to show you that there is no such thing as a sure thing, though I certainly have hope that he will be able to put things together and be a usable option in all formats. He showed enough power in the minor leagues (27 HR in ‘08 between Single and Double-A), to think that he could take a step forward from his 8.0% HR/FB in ‘10.
• This year’s two hot catchers, Carlos Santana and Buster Posey, are not quite in the same boat as Wieters was in ‘10, because they both showed that they could excel at the Major League level. They are both among the best options at the position and should reward owners in all formats.

What are your thoughts on these rankings? Who’s too high? Who’s too low?

Make sure to check out our 2011 projections:

• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Josh Beckett suffered through one of the worst seasons of his career.  All you have to do is look at the numbers to understand just how bad it was:

6 Wins
127.2 Innings
5.78 ERA
1.54 WHIP
116 Strikeouts (8.2 K/9)
45 Walks (3.2 BB/9)
.349 BABIP

Before we get into specifics, Beckett has coincidentally alternated good and bad years dating back to 2005.  It’s odd, for sure, but it actually is a fact.  Just look at his ERAs:

• 2005 – 3.37
• 2006 – 5.01
• 2007 – 3.27
• 2008 – 4.03
• 2009 – 3.86

And then last year’s disaster, which is the worst of them all.  It was the first time since 2003 that he had a WHIP above 1.29.  The first time since 2006 that he had a WHIP above 1.19.

The BABIP played a major role in his struggles.  He clearly suffered from subpar luck, both there and in his strand rate (65.3%).  A pitcher of his stature is not supposed to go through years like this.  He has the stuff to excel and that is supposed to trump bad luck.

Unfortunately, that’s just not the way baseball works.  There are year’s where the luck just doesn’t even out and skill is irrelevant.  That’s one of the major reasons that Beckett’s numbers were as poor as they were.

He also suffered from back problems, which likely helped his control suffer.  His BB/9 the previous three seasons had been 1.8, 1.8 and 2.3.  While his 3.2 is still very good, it’s not in the same class that he has shown capable.

A lot of those problems were in the first half of the season, when he posted a 3.8 BB/9.  After the All-Star Break, when his health appeared to be better (he made six starts in August and five starts in September), his BB/9 was at 2.9.  That’s significantly more palatable, and more in line with what he has proven capable in the past.

None of that even mentions how home run prone he suddenly became.  Over the past three seasons he had posted HR/9 of 0.8, 0.9 and 1.1.  In 2010, his mark was at 1.4.

There’s nothing significant in the numbers that scream regression, though his HR/FB was his highest since 2006, posting a 14.2% mark.  It’s very easy to see this number falling back in line as well.

The Red Sox had significant problems throughout the year with injuries and inability.  It was just one thing after another, with seemingly all of their key players missing time at one point or another.

That being said, it’s impossible to take Beckett’s struggles too seriously.  He’s proven just how good he good be in the past and while he had his problems, a lot of them were due to bad luck more than anything else.

He showed that he still had his control in the second half.  At 30-years old, it’s easy to believe that he’s going to turn things around, just like he always seems capable of doing.  He’s proven time and time again that he’s worth owning in all formats, and 2011 should be seen as nothing different.

It’s too early to tell where he is going to go on draft day, but if other owners are scared off, you are likely to get quite the bargain if you are willing to take the risk.

What are your thoughts on Beckett?  Do you think he’s going to rebound in 2011?  Do you think he is going to struggle once again?

Make sure to check out our review of other players who struggled in 2010 and their prospects for a rebound:

• Hill, Aaron
• Lind, Adam

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After hitting .286 with 36 HR, 108 RBI and 106 R in 2009, there was little doubt that Aaron Hill was going to take a step backwards in 2010.  Not that his numbers were overly unbelievable, it’s just from a second baseman it is nearly impossible to replicate that type of a season.  Those are elite numbers.  Those are Hall of Fame type numbers.

However, what fantasy owners got in 2010 was a complete disaster.  He didn’t just regress, he fell off a cliff.  Just look at the numbers and see for yourself:

528 At Bats
.205 Batting Average (108 Hits)
26 Home Runs
68 RBI
70 Runs
2 Stolen Bases
.271 On Base Percentage
.394 Slugging Percentage
.196 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Obviously, the BABIP was an unbelievably unlucky number.  That’s just not supposed to happen.  To say that it’s a new standard of bad luck would actually be an understatement.  I researched back to 1995, and no other hitter in that time has posted a BABIP below .220.

Just let that set in for a second.  No other hitter has posted a season with a BABIP since 1995.  Aaron Hill posted a mark under .200.

It’s just not possible to be that unlucky, is it?

Part of the problem may have been that he went homer happy.  After going on a home run fest of his own in 2009 and seeing his teammates (most notably Jose Bautista) get a ton of attention for hitting the long ball, Hill’s fly ball rate took an enormous leap:

• 2009 – 41.0%
• 2010 – 54.2%

Clearly, he was trying to hit the ball out of the ballpark, and it came at the expense of his line drive rate:

• 2009 – 19.6%
• 2010 – 10.6%

When you hit the ball in the air, and not on a line drive, your chances of having bad luck increase exponentially.  It’s easier for a fielder to make a play on a ball in the air, as they have time to make a play.

While you would expect him to be luckier than he was, it really didn’t matter.  With that type of fly ball rate, unless he was going to hit 40 HR, his average was going to suffer.

In turn, the doubles also disappeared.  One of the reasons many people thought a 2009 breakout was possible was that in 2007 (remember, he missed a great deal of the 2008 season), he posted 47 doubles.  Even in 2009 he was hitting two-baggers, as he had 37.

In 2010, he had just 22.

Hopefully he goes to the film this offseason and realizes what he was doing and makes the necessary corrections.  That’s the only chance he has, if he wants to become one of the more productive middle infielders in the game once again.

Could it happen?  Absolutely.  Will it?  It’s too early to tell.  I certainly wouldn’t use an early round pick on him, but with the talent we all know he has, it’s certainly worth taking the flyer if other people are scared off.

What are your thoughts on Hill?  Will he rebound in 2011?  Would you consider using him?

Hill was not the only Blue Jay player to struggle in 2010.  Make sure to also check out:

• Would Adam Lind Have Fantasy Value As The Blue Jays 2011 First Baseman?

Make sure to check out our 2011 projections:

• Freese, David
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Tampa Bay Rays’ catching situation was a questionable one when the season started.  Once they acquired Kelly Shoppach, fantasy owners in two-catcher formats were scurrying for any information they could get on who was going to get the bulk of the playing time.  Was it going to be Shoppach?  Was it going to be the incumbent, Dioner Navarro?

By year’s end the answer was neither, as John Jaso emerged as the player who saw the most at bats of their trio.  Injuries played a factor, but with his inclusion on the playoff roster (and the omission of Dioner Navarro, who ultimately opted not to join the team for the playoff series), it’s obvious that Jaso has entrenched himself in the mix moving forward.

Navarro has probably sealed his own fate, and you would expect that he won’t be back with the Rays in 2011.  That would put Jaso in a position to see significant playing time once again, but should owners in two-catcher formats care?

Before we can answer that, we need to look at how he produced in 2010:

339 AB, .263 BA (89 H), 5 HR, 44 RBI, 57 R, 4 SB, .372 OBP, .378 SLG, .282 BABIP

Jaso’s value is not his power, which he certainly doesn’t have.  He showed a little bit more power in the minor leagues, hitting 47 HR over 1,799 AB.  Still, he never hit more then 14 in a season, and that came in 2005 at Single-A.

With a HR/FB of 4.5%, the 27 year old certainly could add a little bit of power (he is at the magical age where many players seemingly figure it out), but he’s not going to suddenly become a slugger.  It would seem like 10-12 would be his upside potential, and that’s probably pushing it.

His strength is his ability to get on base.  He posted a 14.6% walk rate in 2010, and actually spent a lot of time hitting out of the leadoff spot.  While that’s not an ideal spot for any catcher (he may be fast for a catcher, but that doesn’t make him fast), it says a lot that the Rays were willing to hit him there.

The Rays are going to undergo a likely overhaul this offseason, with Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena potentially leaving via free agency.  Crawford’s replacement, Desmond Jennings, is certainly a more prototypical leadoff hitter, as is B.J. Upton, who had a great resurgence late in the season (10 HR, 14 SB over the final two months of the season).

With those two likely hitting atop the lineup, Jaso is going to be moved down in the order.  That means less opportunities to score runs, certainly putting a dent in his potential value.

The average is another issue.  If you have a catcher who isn’t going to hit for power, he needs to be able to contribute somewhere else.  A .263 average based on a realistic BABIP just doesn’t really cut it.

Throw in the potential for Kelly Shoppach to eat into his playing time, and there are a lot of reasons to be down on Jaso entering the year.

With that said, let’s take a look at what I would project for him in 2011: .275 BA (110-400), 6 HR, 40 RBI, 45 R, 5 SB, .304 BABIP, .368 OBP, .390 SLG

Even in two-catcher formats, I’d rather have an option who could hit for a bit more power, even if it is at the expense of his average.  At least he would be helping me somewhere, as opposed to Jaso, who really doesn’t contribute.  He just doesn’t hurt you anywhere.

The bottom line is that I would consider Jaso as a last resort at this point.

What about you?  Is Jaso someone you would consider in two-catcher formats?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our 2011 projections:

• Freese, David
• Morrow, Brandon

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

No one could argue with the Indians‘ decision to trade Chris Archer as part of the deal sending Mark DeRosa to the Indians prior to the 2009 season.  Look at the ERAs he has posted through his first three years:

• 2006 – 7.71 ERA over 21.0 innings
• 2007 – 5.88 ERA over 56.2 innings
• 2008 – 4.29 ERA over 115.1 innings

Since the trade, however, Archer has put things together.  In 2009 he posted a 2.81 ERA in 109.0 innings at Single-A, but that was just a prelude of things to come.  In 2010, splitting time between High Single-A and Double-A, he posted the following line: 15 Wins, 142.1 Innings, 2.34 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 149 Strikeouts (9.4 K/9), 63 Walks (4.1 BB/9), .276 BABIP.

The BABIP is on the lucky side, but it is not so overly lucky that it’s a huge red flag.  However, he was even luckier during his 70.0 innings at Double-A, with a .261 BABIP, then he was during his 72.1 innings at High Single-A.  Against tougher competition, it’s hard to see him continuing the improved mark, meaning a regression is likely coming.

His strikeout rate also took a small step backwards: High Single-A: 8.6 K/9, Double-A: 10.2 K/9

It shouldn’t be a surprise to see his strikeouts regress as he moves up the ranks, so there’s nothing overly concerning here.

The walk rate, however, has always been problematic.  It appeared to be getting better at High Single-A, with a 3.2 BB/9, but rose to 5.0 after being promoted to Double-A.  Over his minor league career he has a walk rate of 5.2, so it’s certainly a worry that isn’t going to go away.

In the Major Leagues, it’s tough to succeed with a walk rate anywhere close to that.  The problem is, against more disciplined hitters, the number has the potential to regress even more.  When you are that bad against lower level batters (his only time above Single-A came in 2010), you just really don’t know what you are going to get.

The last number worth noting are the home runs.  Basically, he doesn’t allow any.  In 2009 he went 109.0 innings without allowing a home run.  In 2010, he allowed just six.

Can that continue?  It’s unlikely, but right now you have to like his ability to keep the ball in the ballpark.

Named the Chicago Cubs Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2010, the 22-year-old right-hander has the potential to rise to the Major Leagues in 2011, but there certainly are concerns.  Of course, the biggest one is the control.  If he can’t throw strikes, he’s not going to succeed.  That’s just the bottom line.

We’ll keep a close eye on him throughout 2011, but at this point I would say he’s only worth considering in the deepest of formats.  While he’s succeeded the past two years, I’m just not sure he can translate it to the Major Leagues.

What are your thoughts?  Do you think Archer could be a viable fantasy starting pitcher?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:

• Lawrie, Brett
• Pineda, Michael

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Trevor Cahill enjoyed a breakout season in 2010, his second full season in the Major Leagues.  At the surface the numbers are certainly impressive, but there certainly are reasons to be concerned.

Before we get to the reservations, let’s take a look at his statistics:

18 Wins
196.2 Innings
2.97 ERA
1.11 WHIP
118 Strikeouts (5.4 K/9)
63 Walks (2.9 BB/9)
.238 BABIP

The BABIP sticks out like a sore thumb.  In fact, it was the luckiest number in the Major Leagues in 2010, as he was one of just two pitchers to post a mark below .250 (Bronson Arroyo was the other at .246).

The number certainly was advantageous, considering his inability to strike batters out.  He did show significantly more upside in the minor leagues, with a career K/9 of 9.9 over 247.1 innings.  Of course, he also spent just 45.2 of those innings above Single-A, so it’s tough to get a great read on him there.

Prior to the 2009 season Baseball America ranked him as the A’s second best prospect saying the following:

“Cahill works off an 88-92 mph two-seam fastball with outstanding heavy sink and running life, enabling him to rack up both grounders and swinging strikes. He also can touch 94 mph with his four-seamer. He backs up his fastballs with a nasty 79-81 mph knuckle-curve, a swing-and-miss pitch with hard downward movement.

“He also has another tough breaking ball in a low-80s slider with cutter-like action at times. He’s a good athlete with a simple, compact delivery and good balance over the rubber.”

The groundballs were certainly there, at a 56.0 percent clip in 2010.  That is an incredibly impressive mark, putting him fifth in the league.  That certainly will allow him to pitch to a lower BABIP, as does the ballpark he plays in.  Look at his split:

Home: 11 W, 2.18 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 64 K, .241 BABIP over 103.1 innings
Road: 7 W, 3.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 54 K, .235 BABIP over 93.1 innings

OK, so he was lucky everywhere.  To put it in better perspective, since 2003 there has been only one other pitcher who qualified for the ERA title who has posted a BABIP below .240 (the Padres’ Chris Young posted a .237 mark in 2006).  There’s no way he maintains it.

His groundball rate helps, making it more likely to post a strong mark.  However, a regression there (and it is an almost certainty to happen) is going to mean a regression across the board, unless he can significantly improve his strikeout rate.

He’s shown the potential there, so there’s hope, and at 22-years old (he’ll turn 23 before the start of the 2011 season), there is reason to believe that he can take another step forward.  You have to think a pitcher who averages 90.4 mph on his fastball can strikeout more then five batters per nine innings.

Still, he’s not going to suddenly become a strikeout an inning guy.  So, even with his elite control, his WHIP is going to take a hit.  Maybe not a huge one, bit he’s not likely to be around 1.10 once again.  In turn, his ERA is going to rise as well.

The truth of the matter is, he should’ve been closer to 4.00 then below 3.00 in 2010, but luck played a tremendous impact in is numbers.  I’m not going to say that he should be avoided, because with his groundball rate and control, there is the potential to be a great low-end option.

The perfect comparable I can have for him is Chien-Ming Wang in 2007.  Just look at the numbers:

3.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 4.70 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 58.4% groundball rate, .293 BABIP

Cahill will likely out produce the strikeout mark, but not necessarily by much.  The rest of the numbers look about spot on, so that’s exactly how I would value him heading into 2011.

He’s got a ton of potential, thanks to his strikeout upside, but until we see it he’s really nothing more then a late round option, just like Wang always was.

What are your thoughts on Cahill?  Am I being overly skeptical of him?  Do you think he will be a fantasy ace in 2011?

Make sure to check out our 2011 projections:

Freese, David
Morrow, Brandon

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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Adam Lind’s 2010 campaign was disappointing, as he fell well shy of what many hoped was his 2009 breakout (.305, 35 HR, 114 RBI).

The fact of the matter is, he had little opportunity to approach those numbers once again.

His HR/FB in ‘09 was 19.8 percent, significantly higher then what he had posted in portions of the prior two years (13.3 percent and 11.0 percent).

The inability to sustain that mark certainly played a role in his regression, while he also may have been pressing to live up to the power (his fly-ball rate went from 36.8 percent to 40.4 percent).

Throw in a huge jump in strikeouts and a regression in his BABIP, and it all added up to the following numbers:

569 At-Bats
.237 Batting Average (135 Hits)
23 Home Runs
72 RBI
57 Runs
0 Stolen Bases
.287 On-Base Percentage
.425 Slugging Percentage
.277 Batting Average on Balls in Play

I think there is little questioning the idea that he was pressing in 2010. His strikeout rate went from 18.7 percent in 2009 to 25.3 percent in 2010.

Over his minor league career, he posted an 18.7 percent mark in 1,581 at-bats, so there is little questioning his ability to make contact.

However, you wouldn’t know it by looking at his monthly rates:

• April: 29.7 percent
• May: 22.0 percent
• June: 31.1 percent
• July: 26.4 percent
• August: 19.6 percent
• September: 23.8 percent

Every single month was higher than his 2009 mark—almost unfathomable to think of. You couple that with a huge decline in BABIP (in 2009 he had a .323 mark), and the expected decrease in power and the fact that his average was awful should not be a surprise.

However, there certainly is reason for optimism.

He has proven to be too good of a hitter throughout his minor league career and early in his major league career to think that he won’t be able to turn the contact around. Throw in some improved luck, and his average shouldn’t be a concern.

The power he showed in 2010 is probably what we should come to expect. Given his history (55 HR in 1,581 minor league at-bats) and the huge increase in his peripherals, it would appear that he’s more of a 25ish home run hitter. That’s certainly not a mark you would complain about.

An improved average should help him in both the run and RBI categories as well. Let’s face it—the more he’s on base and the more hits he gets, the more productive he’s going to be overall, no matter where he settles in the lineup.

The Blue Jays took a look at him at first base in 2009, and there certainly is reason to believe that they could give him a much longer look in 2010. Lyle Overbay could be considered just as disappointing, hitting .243 with 20 HR and 67 RBI.

As a free agent this offseason, it’s hard to imagine the team bringing him back.

That would leave a gaping hole at first base and Lind, who is signed through 2013 (with options for 2014, 2015, and 2016), could make the most sense to fill the void.

Of course, it’s dependent on the team’s other moves, and there figure to be a slew of first base options available via free agency. Still, it certainly is worth considering.

That type of move could add to his fantasy appeal in 2011. Depending on your league rules, he may actually have just utility eligibility at the outset of the season, playing 16 games in the outfield and 11 at first base.

That limits his value significantly because fantasy owners are not going to want to clog their utility spot on a player who is going to hit .280 with 25 HR.

Those are fine numbers, but they certainly aren’t going to be a first choice, especially if he doesn’t have eligibility elsewhere. It just cripples your flexibility.

However, even as a first baseman, Lind is losing significant value.

It’s a position where you are looking for big HR and RBI totals and coming off 2010, there are significant questions if he can get there. He’s just not in the class of names like Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Joey Votto.

As a high-upside risk, he’ll be worth taking in the mid to late rounds of your draft (if he has outfield eligibility in your league, then it’s a mid-round pick). He’s shown how good he could be, but it doesn’t seem likely he will fully get back there.

We’ll get into a projection as we get closer to the 2011 season, but for now keep his name filed away as a bounce-back sleeper, but one that may not be worth the risk. Then again, could he be 2011’s version of Vladimir Guerrero?

What are your thoughts on Lind? Where are you pegging him for 2011? Is he going to have value as a first baseman?

Make sure to check out our 2011 projections:

• Freese, David
• Morrow, Brandon

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Early in 2010 David Freese appeared to have become a third base fixture for both the Cardinals and fantasy owners.  Through May he was hitting .318 with 4 HR, 31 RBI, and 22 R in just 176 AB.

However, the wheels were beginning to fall off in June (.234 average) before an ankle injuries ended his season prematurely.  Now, as we begin our preparations for 2011, we are left to wonder exactly what we can expect from him moving forward.

It’s not that the injury should have long lingering effects on his performance.  The question is, is what we saw over the first two months of the season what we should anticipate moving forward or was it a mere aberration.

Before we can get into the numbers, we have to talk about the injuries.  Yes, it is plural, because we have to remember that it actually appeared like he was close to a return in August before suffering a second injury while on a rehab assignment, which is what ended his season.

It was the second consecutive season riddled by injuries, as he suffered from ankle problems in 2009 (as well as had his start of Spring Training delayed due to a car accident).  Last year he had just 258 AB between the majors and minors.

There certainly will be health concerns moving forward, which will help to temper our expectations in general.

Now, onto the actual statistics…

His average in the first two months was buoyed by a .400 BABIP.  We all know that it is impossible to expect him to replicate that type of mark, meaning a .300 hitter he is not.  The luck was going to swing, something we started seeing in June.

Of course, even with decreased luck, more power would mean the ability to hit for a higher average.  That is no guarantee either unfortunately.  In 2010 he had a fly ball rate of just 29.1 percent, certainly a number that is not conducive to hitting for much power.

In the Pacific Coast League in 2009 he had 10 HR and 15 doubles in 200 AB.  Obviously, the league helps to inflate the numbers.  Over his minor league career, his fly ball rate was just 34.7 percent, so there is reason to be skeptical about his power developing into a top option.  He’s already 27-years old, so you would think that if he was going to add power, he would’ve done it already or at least shown more signs of success.

The potential for strikeouts is also there, factoring into concerns over his average.  Last season he posted a 24.6 percent strikeout rate and has a minor league mark of 22.1 percent.  There certainly is a chance that he regresses there, as well, just making matters that much worse.

The bottom line when it comes to Freese is that we shouldn’t get too caught up in a good hot streak in 2010, because that’s the only data we have.  If he had stayed healthy, there’s little doubt in my mind that his numbers would’ve come back closer to what we had expected, as the correction had already appeared to have started.

With that said, let’s take a look at my early projection for him:

.256 (115-450), 14 HR, 65 RBI, 45 R, 3 SB, .313 BABIP, .322 OBP, .398 SLG

Of course, all of this assumes that he is the Cardinals starting third baseman, something that is far from a guarantee.

The projections are buoyed by a 25.1% strikeout rate, a number that is extremely believable given his career performance.  Even at a shallow position, the risk involved with Freese, both in injuries and performance, make him a low-end option, at best, and much better suited as a depth option in deeper formats on draft day 2011.

What are your thoughts of Freese?  Am I being too hard on him?  Do you think he can blossom with regular playing time in 2011?

Make sure to check out our 2011 projections:

Morrow, Brandon

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Was there a more surprising 2010 performance than R.A. Dickey’s?  Signed as a minor league free agent, he didn’t open the year in the Mets rotation.  By year’s end, however, he had entrenched himself as their most dependable starter.

In knuckleball years, he’s considered a young pup at 35 years old; Dickey is still honing his craft.  Remember, while he was terrible in prior Major League stints, it wasn’t until around 2006 that he made the transition to knuckleball pitcher.  Yes, he continued to have problems, but he was still learning.  He was still developing the pitch as his own.

This year, it all came together for him.  Joining the Mets rotation in late May, he posted the following line:

11 Wins
173.1 Innings
2.86 ERA
1.19 WHIP
103 Strikeouts (5.35 K/9)
41 Walks (2.13 BB/9)
.283 BABIP

Aren’t knuckleballers supposed to struggle with their control?  Dickey walked seven batters in his first two starts as a Met (four in one and three in the other).  Over his final 24 starts he walked more than two batters just twice (again, never more than four).

That just goes against everything we know about knuckleball pitchers, isn’t it?  Maybe it’s the fact that he throws a harder knuckler, allowing him to control it a little bit more.  Interestingly enough, Tim Wakefield posted a BB/9 of 2.2 this season (entering his final start) and hasn’t been higher than 3.47 since 2001 (he posted a 3.90 that year).

Maybe this whole notion of control problems for knuckleball pitchers is ill conceived.

Still, the number is awfully impressive no matter what the type of pitcher he is.  Is it repeatable?  His minor league career mark is at 2.89 and his Major League mark (prior to 2010) was 3.60.  That certainly takes some lean years into account, so while there may be a slight regression there is certainly reason to believe that he can continue to control the strike zone.

Couple that with a believable BABIP, and you are looking at a pitcher who should continue to post a usable WHIP.

The strand rate, also believable at 77.2 percent, helps lead us to believe that the ERA is repeatable.

Of course, he posted a career-low fly ball rate (27.8 percent) and a career-high groundball rate (55.3 percent), which certainly helped him post strong numbers, especially given the ballpark he pitched in.  At Citi Field he posted a 2.02 ERA over 80.1 innings (on the road he still had a respectable 3.58 ERA over 93.0 innings).

This is where a little discretion needs to be factored in.  Do we believe that he has gotten to the point where he has mastered the knuckleball, making these peripheral numbers believable?  It’s impossible to answer, but there certainly is reason to believe that he’s going to regress, at least a little bit.

That’s not to say that he’s going to post a 4.00+ ERA and 1.35 WHIP, but I don’t think it would be a stretch to expect an ERA more in the 3.25-3.50 range and WHIP in the 1.25 range.

Couple that with a lack of strikeouts and you are looking at a pitcher to fill out your fantasy rotation, not one to anchor it in 2011.

What are your thoughts on Dickey?  Is his 2010 to be believed or do you see a regression coming?

Make sure to check out our 2011 projections:

• Morrow, Brandon

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Drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft (16th overall), Brett Lawrie appears primed to be a future fixture in the Milwaukee Brewers’ batting order.  He certainly posted an eye-opening Double-A campaign:

554 At-Bats
.285 Batting Average (158 Hits)
Eight Home Runs
63 RBI
90 Runs
30 Stolen Bases
.346 On Base Percentage
.451 Slugging Percentage
.350 Batting Average on Balls in Play

It is a solid line.  As you look into it, there is a lot more than meets the eye, however.  Just look at the extra base hits.  On top of his eight home runs, Lawrie added 36 doubles and 16 triples.

No other Southern League player had more then 11 triples.  In fact, no other player in Double or Triple-A had more then 12 triples.

There is power in his bat.  Prior to the 2010 season when they ranked him second in the Brewers system, Baseball America said, “With strong hands and the quickest bat in the system, he drives the ball to all fields.”

He hit 13 HR in 372 AB at low Single-A in 2009.  With that total and his extra base power he showed in 2010, there certainly is reason to believe that the power is going to come in time.  Keep in mind that he is still just 20 years old (he’ll turn 21 in January).

Power and speed.  That’s a great combination for a middle infielder, but there are things to be worried about.

The strikeouts are a concern, as is his plate discipline in general.  He posted a 21.3-percent strikeout rate and a 7.8-percent walk rate, both numbers that he needs to improve upon if he wants to succeed in the Major Leagues.  While the power is likely going to be there, right now he looks to be a top-of-the-order bat.

However, against tougher competition, both rates could go in the wrong direction.  With an increase in strikeouts you are going to see a decrease in his average.  Even with speed, there is little chance that he can better his .350 BABIP.  That is a huge concern.

He also needs to improve his ability against right-handed pitchers in general.  In 2010 he hit .266 with 97 Ks in 402 AB (24.1-percent strikeout rate).  He also had a slugging percentage of .415.

Against southpaws he hit .336 with 21 Ks in 152 AB (13.8-percent strikeout rate).  He had a slugging percentage of .546.

That screams of platoon potential.  Then again, there is no real guarantee where he’s going to play.  Second base is clearly blocked by Rickie Weeks for the time being.  There’s a chance he could convert into an outfielder, but it’s going to take time for him to learn the position.

Of course, while he has speed, there is also the fact that the Brewers don’t seem to utilize the running game very often (the same issue we had when discussing Alcides Escobar prior to 2010).  However, if there is a change at the managerial position, those philosophies could change.

The concerns are certainly big enough to have doubts on what he can do in 2011.  He’s likely going to open the year at Triple-A and may just be an injury away from making an impact.  Of course, unless he improves on the issues, it could be a tough debut.

Still, at a weaker position, he’s a player that we certainly should keep close tabs on for the upcoming campaign.  You never know, but right now he appears to be a low-end option, at best, for 2011.

What are your thoughts on Lawrie?  Could he make an impact in 2011?  What type of numbers do you expect from him?

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:

• Pineda, Michael

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