Kuzul

When looking at Major League rotations, often there is a pitcher or two at the back end who leaves you scratching your head. 

You ask yourself, “Why is this guy even on a Major League roster?”  How often do you look at a team’s rotation and wonder why is any one of these guys starting?

When you look at the Royals rotation, that is pretty much what you are left wondering.  In the majority of leagues, every one of their starting pitchers is probably sitting on the waiver wire (outside of AL-only leagues). 

Yes, they are stocked with pitching prospects like Mike Montgomery, John Lamb and Danny Duff, many of which could get a chance before the year is out. 

For now, however, we have to sift through the dreck and determine if any of the pitchers could have value:

Luke Hochevar

This may be one of the most underwhelming Opening Day starters of all-time.  In his Major League career, the former first-round draft pick has been awful, posting a 5.60 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 69 appearances (65 starts). 

Last season was no different, posting a 4.81 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over 103.0 innings of work.  However, there certainly was some poor luck at play, with a .312 BABIP and 65.0% strand rate.

Over his minor league career, he has shown some promise, with a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.  He also showed solid control (2.58 BB/9), something that has actually translated to the Major Leagues (3.11 BB/9).  There is some strikeout potential as well, with a 7.80 K/9 (6.01 K/9 over his Major League career).

The question is, can he finally put things together and show the potential against Major League hitters?  Over the past three seasons, we can say he suffered “bad luck,” but with three straight years of below-average numbers, is it bad luck or just inability? 

Of all the players in the Royals rotation, he’s the one pitcher that is probably worth keeping an eye on off the waiver wire.  He opens the season with starts against the Angels and White Sox. 

If he finally shows signs of putting things together, I can see taking a flier on him in deeper formats, though I wouldn’t be holding my breath for that.

Jeff Francis

Returning from injury in 2010, Francis was underwhelming with a 5.00 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. 

He brings little to no strikeout potential and don’t read too much into the elite control he showed last season (1.98 BB/9).  For his career, only once had he been below 3.07.  That’s still solid, but not even close to his ’10 production.

The people who believe in him are pretty much just looking at his 17-win season from 2007 (which feels like a lifetime ago). 

In 882.2 Major League innings he is sporting a 4.77 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.  That is more than enough of a sample size to tell us all we need to know. 

He struggled in the NL (Coors Field or not) and now moves to the AL.  There’s no real reason to expect much of anything.

Kyle Davies

Does this guy really belong in a Major League rotation?  In 706.2 Major League innings he has posted a 5.49 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.  Only once has he posted an ERA below 4.93 (4.06 in ’08), and he’s never had a WHIP below 1.45. 

How bad does he have to be before he is booted out of the rotation?  Once one of the Royals’ prospects shows that he is ready, he’ll likely be the first man out.  Don’t even bother considering him.

Bruce Chen

Do we still think that he can return to the days of 2005 (3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP)?  Yes, he was decent last season with a 4.17 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, but is that really enough to entice anyone?

He really isn’t worth spending much time on.  The fact of the matter is that he is not likely to produce anything close to being fantasy viable.

Vin Mazzaro

Reports are that he is going to open the year at Triple-A, but that’s only because they can go with a four-man rotation thanks to numerous off days.  He will be the team’s fifth starter, and actually may bring a little bit more intrigue than #2-4.

Last season, he posted a 4.27 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 122.1 innings for Oakland.  Of course, he showed little strikeout potential (5.81 K/9), which is instantly going to limit any type of upside. 

It’s not like he was overly impressive in the minor leagues, with a K/9 of 6.84.  With a minor league career ERA of 3.98 and WHIP of 1.37, maybe he actually isn’t much better than the rest of the group.

Conclusion

At this point, until the kids start finding their way into the Major League rotation, there truly is little intrigue surrounding the Royals starting pitchers.  The only one worth monitoring is Luke Hochevar, and even that feels like a stretch right now. 

While their offense could produce value, the rotation appears to be a fantasy black hole at the moment.

What are your thoughts?  Do any of their pitchers interest you?  Why or why not?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Brandon Belt garnered a lot of attention in 2010, just one year after being selected in the fifth round of the draft. 

There certainly wasn’t much expected from the 22-year old (he turns 23 on April 22), but he delivered in a big way. 

In fact, the Giants couldn’t keep him down, moving him from Single-A to Double-A to Triple-A, as he compiled the following line:

492 At Bats
.352 Batting Average (173 Hits)
23 Home Runs
112 RBI
99 Runs
22 Stolen Bases
.455 On Base Percentage
.620 Slugging Percentage
.405 Batting Average on Balls in Play

I think, just by looking at the average, we would all say that it is hard to imagine it being replicated. Then, you include his unbelievable BABIP and we all know that he’s not a .350 hitter. 

That’s not a bad thing, but we just have to be realistic.

He appears to bring a good eye at the plate, with a 15.9 percent walk rate and 20.1 percent walk rate. While the majority of the sample size came at Double-A or below (only 48 AB at Triple-A), it still is impressive. 

With that type of potential, it would appear that Belt could very easily be a .280+ hitter in the Major Leagues. 

If we assumed that his strikeout rate increased to 25.0 percent and his home runs fall to 20, in the same 492 AB he would need a BABIP of .338 to hit .280. 

That’s not unbelievable, is it? What if his strikeouts don’t fall quite that far? What if he can increase his power? It just gets more realistic.

Baseball America, who ranked him as the Giants top prospect heading into 2011, said the following about his approach at the plate:

“Belt combines tremendous plate discipline with an up-the-middle approach that serves him well against lefthanders and righthanders alike. He makes adjustments from pitch to pitch—something almost unheard of for a first-year pro—and enjoys the mental side of hitting.

“His power is through the middle of the field, and he should be good for at least 20 homers per year. His ability to make consistent hard contact could provide the Giants a lefthanded version of Buster Posey in the very near future.”

That certainly is backed up by the numbers. He showed that he’s not a pure power hitter, with 43 doubles and 10 triples to go along with his 23 home runs. 

He’s just a great hitter and with it comes the potential for consistent 20-25 HR production. Plus, with all those extra base hits, seeing the power improve as he gets older and gains experience is very realistic.

The speed is a little bit deceiving, as he had 18 at Single-A (in 25 attempts), before stealing just four bases over 223 AB at Double and Triple-A. It’s a number that is certainly skewed and I wouldn’t expect him to be able to steal a significant number of bases. Maybe 10-12 is realistic, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see him come in below that.

The real question with Belt is where he may fit into the Giants lineup. 

They currently have Aubrey Huff at 1B, though he easily could be shifted to the outfield to make room for Belt. With Mark DeRosa currently penciled into left field, that’s not an unreasonable scenario. DeRosa’s ability to be a super utility, seeing time all around the diamond, certainly helps.

Whether he opens the year with the Giants, or more likely that he opens at Triple-A (which is looking like the plan at this point), sooner or later he is going to join the Giants, much like Buster Posey did in ’10. When he does, he brings the potential to be a viable option in all formats. 

This spring, he certainly has shown that he could produce in a major way. In 62 AB (second most for the Giants, showing they wanted to get a good, long look at him) he has hit .306 with three HR, 13 RBI and two SB. He continues to show an ability to make contact, posting a strikeout rate of 19.35 percent (12 K). 

They are all good signs and just further push the intrigue around him.

Last season, the Giants had Buster Posey in the minor leagues until May 29, allowing him more time to develop and get the feel of the upper levels of the minor leagues; there’s a good chance that they follow the same game plan with Belt.

If you are in a deeper league, drafting and stashing him is a good idea, depending on the space you have on your bench. While he may not be a prototypical slugging first baseman, there is more than enough to like.

What are your thoughts on Belt? Is he a player you think will have value in 2011? Why or why not?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we head towards 2011:

• Ackley, Dustin
• Archer, Chris
• Britton, Zach
• Chisenhall, Lonnie
• Cousins, Scott
• d’Arnaud, Chase
• Iglesias, Jose
• Kipnis, Jason
• Lawrie, Brett
• Mesoraco, Devin
• Owens, Rudy
• Pineda, Michael
• Ramos, Wilson
• Revere, Ben
• Taylor, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Brad Lidge is the latest closer to go down with an injury and how long he will be out is completely unknown. The pain in his shoulder has yet to be identified, meaning he could be out a week, a month or maybe more. It was just a few days ago that I questioned if Lidge was even worth owning (click here to view) and now things look even more dubious. 

Obviously, there are two options for the Phillies to turn to, either Ryan Madson or Jose Contreras. The question is, who will it be? Or, will fantasy owners face yet another “closer-by-committee” situation?

According to Todd Zolecki of mlb.com (click here for the article), the latter does not appear to be in the cards. Pitching coach Rick Dubee was quoted as saying, “Guys are more comfortable when they’re slotted into a role. It’s preparation. You know when your time is coming. When you’re grabbing at straws, guys are a little leery about what’s going on. You like to have that back end set up.”

So, knowing that it is likely going to be one or the other, which is the player that fantasy owners should be targeting?

Ryan Madson is clearly the more dynamic pitcher. He has the better stuff and you would think that he should excel closing out games. However, he has never seemed extremely comfortable in the ninth inning. It is a small sample size, but in 2010 he converted just five of 10 save opportunities. Over the past five seasons he has 19 saves in 35 opportunities.

In Zolecki’s article, Dubee is quoted as saying, “He doesn’t get to the same comfort level. There’s a little anxiety there. The ninth inning is a little different than the eighth. There have been solid eighth-inning guys that haven’t been able to pitch the ninth. One day they learn how to do it.”

Contreras, however, thrived in his brief chance as closer in ’10, converting four saves in five opportunities. In his first season in the bullpen he posted a 3.34 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 56.2 innings of work. That’s not to mention a 9.05 K/9, significantly better than he did while in the starting rotation.

If Friday’s spring game was any indication, you can tell which direction the Phillies are leaning:

Eighth Inning: Ryan Madson allows one hit in an otherwise clean inning as the setup man.

Ninth inning: Jose Contreras is perfect, complete with two strikeouts, picking up the save.

Should we be looking too much into spring strategy? Of course not, but past success clearly is going to factor into the Phillies thinking. Small sample size or not, you can tell by Dubee’s comments that Madson’s past struggles are certainly going to play a role. 

Obviously, to be safe all Lidge owners should be hoping to stash both Contreras and Madson. You really don’t know exactly what is going to happen at this point. However, if push comes to shove, all signs are currently pointing to Contreras getting the first opportunity to close out games. Right now neither appear to be a long-term options, but those looking to steal a few saves early on will want to probably nab Contreras.

What are your thoughts?  Who do you think is going to get the save opportunities? 

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

Top 15 Catchers
Top 15 First Basemen
Top 15 Second Basemen
Top 15 Third Basemen
Top 15 Shortstops
Top 30 Outfielders
Top 30 Starting Pitchers
Top 15 Closers

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With Kendrys Morales still struggling to return to the field, you have to wonder what to expect from him in 2011.  Will he come back in April?  Will it not be until May?  Even once he returns, how many games per week will he be able to play?

So many questions, so few answers at this point.  I have reduced my projection for him down to 475 AB for the upcoming season, clearly dropping him down the rankings.  Let’s take a look at how far:

1. Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals
2. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
3. Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds
4. Adrian Gonzalez – Boston Red Sox
5. Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees
6. Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers
7. Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies
8. Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox
9. Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins
10. Adam Dunn – Chicago White Sox
11. Billy Butler – Kansas City Royals
12. Kendrys Morales – Los Angeles Angels
13. Paul Konerko – Chicago White Sox
14. Victor Martinez – Detroit Tigers
15. Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants

Thoughts:

• Word is that Justin Morneau is no longer feeling the effects of the concussion that sidelined him in 2010, which clearly is great news.  I would still proceed with a bit of caution, but he’s a solid option for the upcoming season.
• Obviously, when Morales is able to return to the diamond is going to play a major effect on his ranking here.  If he were healthy, would he be a better option than Billy Butler?  Well, obviously, but 600 AB of Butler is a lot more attractive than potentially fewer than 500 AB of Morales.
• Obviously no one is drafting Victor Martinez or Buster Posey to be their starting first baseman.  Still, their bats certainly do translate well.
• Can Paul Konerko replicate his renaissance 2010 campaign?  Clearly, I have my doubts.  I’d much rather draft him to be my corner infielder, as opposed to my starting first baseman.
• Is anyone still worried about Miguel Cabrera?  At this point in the spring, he’s hitting .288 with 3 HR and 12 RBI in 59 AB.  In other words, seems like the same old Cabrera to me.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The biggest question hanging over fantasy owners finally got a resolution, with the Rangers revealing that Neftali Feliz will remain the team’s closer for 2011. 

Of course, with one solution comes numerous other issues.  Several closers are currently hurting, while others are struggling to find their form.  Let’s take a look at how things currently shape up:

1. Heath Bell – San Diego Padres
2. Brian Wilson – San Francisco Giants
3. Joakim Soria – Kansas City Royals
4. Neftali Feliz – Texas Rangers
5. Mariano Rivera – New York Yankees
6. Jonathan Papelbon – Boston Red Sox
7. Jonathan Broxton – Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Francisco Rodriguez – New York Mets
9. Carlos Marmol – Chicago Cubs
10. Andrew Bailey – Oakland Athletics
11. Huston Street – Colorado Rockies
12. Jose Valverde – Detroit Tigers
13. J.J. Putz – Arizona Diamondbacks
14. Matt Thornton – Chicago White Sox
15. Chris Perez – Cleveland Indians

Thoughts:

• Brian Wilson may be hurting, but that doesn’t mean that he should fall down draft boards.  The injury appears to be minor, at least for now, and there’s actually a chance that he avoids a trip to the DL.  Even if he misses the first week or two, so he ends up with 39 saves and 74 strikeouts?  Would anyone really complain?  Obviously, you will want to proceed with caution, but I’d still select him early.
• The situation with Andrew Bailey does cause a little bit more concern, though he has proven to be too good when healthy to drop too far.  I know they will likely move cautiously, with Brian Fuentes in place, but the upside of Bailey is far too alluring to ignore.  At this point, I have him as the last “sure” closer, if there is such an animal.
• Falling off the list is Joe Nathan, who has been horrible this preseason as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery.  At this point, he is sporting a robust 11.05 ERA over 7.1 innings with just three strikeouts and four walks.  Meanwhile, Matt Capps has a perfect 0.00 ERA with five strikeouts and no walks over 8.1 innings of work.  You have to believe that, sooner or later, Nathan will return to the closer’s role, but for now it seems like he has pitched his way out of contention from the outset.
• I know Jonathan Broxton is no sure thing, especially after losing his job for a time in ’10.  Still, for why I am so high on him, check out my thoughts by clicking here.
• For a recap of the closers who appear to open the season on the DL and who may replace them, click here.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

There is a general feeling among many people that Elvis Andrus is overrated.  When you look at his numbers from 2010, it isn’t a surprising thought:

588 At Bats
.265 Batting Average (156 Hits)
0 Home Runs
35 RBI
88 Runs
32 Stolen Bases
.342 On Base Percentage
.301 Slugging Percentage
.317 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The number that jumps off the page is his home run total.  If he was hitting for extra bases in other ways it may not be as glaring, but he had just 15 doubles and 3 triples.  Both were down from his 2009 campaign when he had 31 total extra base hits (17 doubles, 8 triples, 6 home runs).

It’s not like the latter is very impressive, but at least it is a little bit more appealing.

It isn’t likely that he is going to hit for much power, with a career fly ball rate of 21.1 percent through his first two seasons, but after hitting six in 480 AB in his rookie season it is hard to imagine him as a player who doesn’t hit any.

He is still just 22 years old and, with experience, you would think that he will add a little bit of pop.

He’s not likely to suddenly develop into Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins, pairing speed and power, but seeing him rebound into the 6-9 HR range would not be shocking.  It would also significantly help his potential value.

He’s being dropped to second in the Rangers lineup this season, with Ian Kinsler moving into the leadoff spot.

Considering the team’s ability to light up the scoreboard, the move should do little to impact our view on his potential to score runs.  Seeing him in the 90s is very realistic, especially with his improved ability to draw walks (7.4 percent to 9.5 percent in ’10).

In fact, with Kinsler filling the bases in front of him, one could argue that he has the ability to improve upon his RBI total.

Again, it’s not going to be a dynamic leap into the 70s or 80s, but the 50s or low 60s?  Especially if he does add the power that I discussed, it’s a very realistic mark.

The big question, and the biggest source of value, is Andrus’ speed.  He stole 23 bases the first half of the season, but was also caught 10 times.  His inefficiency helped to cause the Rangers to tighten the reigns in the second half (though he also struggled, hitting .247), with Andrus only attempting 14 stolen bases (and being successful on nine).

You would have to think that improving Andrus’ ability to steal a base is a major priority for the Rangers this season.

He clearly has the speed to be a 40 SB threat, it’s just a matter of teaching him to get the job done.  I wouldn’t enter the season expecting it, but it certainly isn’t unreasonable to think that, with more experience, he can achieve the mark in 2011.

You put it all together and get the following projection for 2011:

.285 (171-600), 7 HR, 55 RBI, 90 R, 35 SB, .328 BABIP, .363 OBP, .377 SLG

Obviously, there are a lot of question marks surrounding Andrus, but I don’t think it is unrealistic to see him reach those marks.

In fact, is it hard to imagine him exceeding those types of numbers?

At a weak position, there are plenty of reasons to like Andrus.

Maybe he’s going a little bit early, with an ADP of 71.88 according to Mock Draft Central.

Still, with his potential, especially in the SB department, he has a chance to be a huge asset.  After the top six or seven at the position, how much certainty is there really?

What are your thoughts of Andrus?  What type of numbers are you expecting from him in ’11?  Do you think he could reach my projection?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Drew, Stephen
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Kendrick, Howie
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Phillips, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Reynolds, Mark
• Rios, Alex
• Sanchez, Gaby
• Span, Denard
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Walker, Neil
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Many people immediately write off the Kansas City Royals, and rightfully so.

It feels like an eternity since they were actually a competitive baseball team, doesn’t it?

People are now beginning to pay attention to them—but not for the here or now.

Instead, all we hear about is the future of the team. We hear about the next wave of prospects who will help to carry the Royals back to relevance.

However, that’s not to say that fantasy owners should just ignore the pieces that the Royals currently have, because there are actually some that can help us to fantasy titles in 2011.

Let’s take a look at the team, position-by-position and see where there might be some value.

Catcher: Jason Kendall

He’s likely going to open up the season on the DL, but once healthy he should be the main option in 2011.

The fact of the matter is that he hasn’t been relevant since 2006, and even that’s a stretch. Don’t even bother—even in two-catcher formats.

First Base: Billy Butler

He’s going to split his time between 1B and DH, but for these purposes I’ll just list him here.

Of all the Royals hitters, he clearly has the highest upside.

I know people have been disappointed in his power production, but over the past two seasons he has 96 doubles.

At 24-years old (he’ll turn 25 in April), can we really say that he isn’t going to gain some power and turn some of those doubles into home runs?

Is he going to develop into a 40 HR guy? Not likely, but if he becomes a 25-30 HR hitter to go along with a .300-plus average and potential for 100 RBI, is anyone going to complain?

That’s the type of player he easily could become, making him a great option, especially as a corner infielder.

Second Base: Mike Aviles

He gets a lot of love in fantasy circles, but I’m not completely seeing it.

Yes, he brings average potential to the table, but where else is he going to help you?

We are talking about a 10/10 player who has never scored more than 68 runs or driven in more than 51 RBI.

He’s a nice player, but I’d consider him a low-end middle infielder for now.

Shortstop: Alcides Escobar

He struggled in his rookie season, but moving out of Milwaukee (who rarely ran under the old regime) should do wonders.

He is the same player who had 42 SB at Triple-A in ’09, so don’t underestimate his abilities to pile up the steals if given the green light.

He has shown a good ability to make contact (13.8 percent strikeout rate), and if he can improve his walk rate (6.5 percent in ’10), there is a lot of room for growth.

Keep in mind, he struggled with a .264 BABIP in ’10—something that he should significantly improve upon, especially with his speed.

There has also been talk about using him in the No. 2 hole, adding to his potential upside what with the significant increase in runs potential.

As a late round sleeper, he’s a great selection.

Third Base: Wilson Betemit

He’s a placeholder for Mike Moustakas—we all know it, so don’t put much stock in him. 

Moustakas, on the other hand, has the potential to be a stud at the position once he gets the call. Consider stashing him in all formats.

Outfield: Jeff Francoeur, Melky Cabrera, Alex Gordon

No, no and interesting. That about sums it up, doesn’t it?

Neither Francoeur nor Cabrera belong on a normal fantasy roster (obviously, in AL-Only leagues it’s a different story).

In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if neither finished the season as part of the Royals’ starting lineup.

Lorenzo Cain is a much better option in centerfield, but the fact that he has options is working against him.

He stole 33 bases in 37 attempts between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors in 2010—when he gets his shot, those in five-outfielder formats could certainly use him.

Gordon, meanwhile, is one of the best known “busts” in baseball history. However, he has rebuilt a little of his stock now that he’s in the outfield.

He looked good at Triple-A in ’10 (.315, 14 HR in 260 AB), so there is certainly hope that he can put things back together. While this may be his last shot, those in five-outfielder formats could certainly do worse than have him on their bench.

Designated Hitter: Kila Ka’aihue

Finally, the Royals are going to give him a chance to play every day.

He has some pop in his bat, but we have to take his 80 home runs at Triple-A with a grain of salt, considering it was in the Pacific Coast League.

Still, he has the potential to be a “mini” Billy Butler, hitting around .270 with close to 20 HR. Those in deeper formats would be thrilled with those numbers as an end-draft flier.

What are your thoughts on the Royals offense? Who do you like? Who would you like to avoid?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Drew, Stephen
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Kendrick, Howie
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Phillips, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Reynolds, Mark
• Rios, Alex
• Sanchez, Gaby
• Span, Denard
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Walker, Neil
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Third base is one of the shallowest positions, as the rankings are littered with regression risks and question marks. 

While there hasn’t been major movement in the third base rankings, there are still a few things to note as we approach the start of the season. 

Let’s take a look at how our rankings currently look:

1. Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays
2. David Wright – New York Mets
3. Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals
4. Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees
5. Jose Bautista – Toronto Blue Jays
6. Adrian Beltre – Texas Rangers
7. Pedro Alvarez – Pittsburgh Pirates
8. Martin Prado – Atlanta Braves
9. Michael Young – Texas Rangers
10. Aramis Ramirez – Chicago Cubs
11. Pablo Sandoval – San Francisco Giants
12. Mark Reynolds – Baltimore Orioles
13. Casey McGehee – Milwaukee Brewers
14. Placido Polanco – Philadelphia Phillies
15. Juan Uribe – Los Angeles Dodgers

Thoughts:

• Kevin Youkilis is not on these rankings, only because he will not be eligible at 3B on draft day.  It’s not going to take long, however, so he obviously is worth considering.  If he was eligible, he’d come in fifth, so draft him accordingly.
• Michael Young’s spot on the rankings is tenuous, at best.  He’s going to see time at 1B (Mitch Moreland), 3B (Adrian Beltre) and DH (Mike Napoli), but exactly how much time is anyone’s guess.  Should he get traded, things would look significantly differently.  At this point, however, I wouldn’t blame anyone for bypassing him altogether.
• Can Mark Reynolds rediscover his old form in Baltimore?  He’s likely going to be a great source of power, but he’s still going to bring a subpar average with him.  To me, he’s a borderline option.  Make sure to check out my projection for him by clicking here.
• Part of me is still on the fence on who the No. 2 option should be, David Wright or Ryan Zimmerman.  Wright’s speed gives him a slight edge, but people would be viewing Zimmerman a lot differently if he had not missed time due to injury in ’10.  Don’t be surprised if he goes .300/30/100/100 in ’11.
• Even with expected regressions from Jose Bautista and Adrian Beltre, they are still among the better options at the position.  That says a lot about the depth and question marks filling these rankings, doesn’t it?
• Are you a believer in Pablo Sandoval’s weight loss, helping to lead to a resurgence?  Time will certainly tell.

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers

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Every season we seem to talk about Nick Markakis and his breakout potential—and every season we are sorely disappointed with the results.  While he has always been solid, though unspectacular, the 2010 season was, by far, his worst:

• 629 At Bats
• .297 Batting Average (187 Hits)
• 12 Home Runs
• 60 RBI
• 79 Runs
• 7 Stolen Bases
• .370 On Base Percentage
• .436 Slugging Percentage
• .331 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The average was still solid, but after that, is there really anything to get excited about?  Just look at his trends from the prior three seasons:

• Three straight years of at least 94 R (including a year of 106).
• Three straight years of at least 87 RBI (including two years of over 100).

The fact that he fell so far in the counting stats is quite worrisome.  Of course, the fact that the Orioles lineup in general was terrible didn’t help things.  The injury to Brian Roberts left the team short at the top, making generating runs a lot more difficult.

In the middle, they didn’t get the expected contributions from their young sluggers like Matt Wieters, just further weakening things.

In 2011, that should certainly be rectified.  Roberts is healthy, at least for now.  The team took a lot of pressure of Markakis and Co. by adding Vladimir Guerrero, Mark Reynolds and Derrek Lee.  In other words, this is a lineup with a lot of pop.

Markakis should slide back as the full-time No. 2 hitter, a role that he fits extremely well.  He has consistently shown great OBP potential (.368 for his career) and extra base power (43 or more doubles each of the past four seasons).  With the major upgrades to the lineup, seeing him return to the days of 90-plus runs seems like a given.

The power was probably the biggest disappointment from 2010.  At this point it seems fair to say that he’s never going to be a top home run hitter, but 12 just doesn’t seem possible.  With all of the doubles we’ve already mentioned, one would think that some of them could start finding their way over the fence.  You also have to look at his HR/FB from last season and expect an improvement:

• 2006 – 13.1 percent
• 2007 – 11.6 percent
• 2008 – 12.6 percent
• 2009 – 8.0 percent
• 2010 – 6.1 percent

Are we really supposed to believe that he has just suddenly lost the power potential he showed his first three seasons?  I’m not talking about him developing into a 30 HR hitter, but thinking that he will return to 18-plus is reasonable.  In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him close in on 25, given what he’s shown in the past.

So, we are talking about an outfielder who has consistently proven that he can hit right around .300.  Throw in the potential to score 90-plus runs and hit 20-plus HR and there is a lot to like.  While he doesn’t offer speed and may not top 80 RBI in the No. 2 hole, there is still more than enough to like.

He currently has an ADP of 107.71 according to Mock Draft Central and is the 29th outfielder coming off the board.  That is after guys like Alfonso Soriano, Grady Sizemore and Vernon Wells.  Clearly the value is there, making him a solid selection on draft day.

What are your thoughts on Markakis?  Do you think his current draft spot is a good value?  What type of production do you think is possible in 2011?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Drew, Stephen
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Phillips, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Reynolds, Mark
• Rios, Alex
• Sanchez, Gaby
• Span, Denard
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Walker, Neil
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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After the 2009 season, Denard Span appeared primed to entrench himself as a top 30 outfielder.  That’s what happens when you hit .311 with 23 SB, 97 R and hitting atop a lineup featuring Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

Maybe the injury to Morneau played a bigger role than we realize…

Maybe the regression of Mauer helped to sabotage him…

Maybe he just played over his head in 2009…

Maybe it was a combination of all three, but the thinking behind Span certainly is different as we head into 2011.  That’s what happens when you post the following stat line in ’10:

629 At Bats
.268 Batting Average (166 Hits)
3 Home Runs
58 RBI
85 Runs
26 Stolen Bases
.331 On Base Percentage
.448 Slugging Percentage
.294 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Obviously, the problems in the middle of the lineup played a role, but Delmon Young also came of age, delivering 112 RBI.  The Twins order certainly didn’t lack punch.  No, problems rest mostly on the shoulders of Span.

The biggest issue is Span’s OBP, which fell from .392 in ’10 (and .387 in his rookie season).  So what happened?  First of all was his walk rate, which fell, though not by a huge rate.  In ’09 he posted a 10.4 percent mark, which fell to 8.5 percent mark in ’10.  It’s a problem, but not one that I would go crazy about.

The biggest issue was his average, though all of the news was not terrible.  Span actually lowered his strikeout rate for the third straight season:

• 2008 – 17.3 percent
• 2009 – 15.4 percent
• 2010 – 11.8 percent

That’s a great trend, but the problem is that he suffered from a below average BABIP, especially for a player with his speed.  With more balls put into play, his BABIP has a big effect on his average.  Had he been able to match his .353 mark from ’09, the results would’ve been impressive.

Of course his ’09 mark may be a bit extreme but so was his ’10 mark.  Figure that he comes in somewhere in the middle, meaning an average of at least .290 is quite possible.

Yes, there are still problems.  He’s not going to hit for any power.  He’s not going to pick up a significant number of RBI.  He has speed, but he’s not a 30+ SB guy. 

Still, with the Twins lineup, you are looking at player who is going to hit close to .300, score around 100 R and steal 25+ bases?  What’s not to like about that?  In fact, here is my 2011 projection for him:

.295 (177-for-600), 7 HR, 60 RBI, 100 R, 28 SB, .334 BABIP, .374 OBP, .402 SLG

He’s not an ace option.  He’s borderline in shallower formats, but in five-outfielder formats he’s a solid selection in the middle rounds.

What are your thoughts on Span?  What are you expecting from him in 2011?  Is he a player you would target?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Drew, Stephen
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Phillips, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Reynolds, Mark
• Rios, Alex
• Sanchez, Gaby
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Walker, Neil
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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