Kuzul

Finding pitchers who help in the WHIP department is not always an easy task; finding one late in your draft (after Round 18) is even tougher. 

Here are five pitchers who I have projected for a 1.30 WHIP or better who are available late in your draft (based on Mock Draft Central’s ADP):

Brian Matusz – Baltimore Orioles

He may be a tough sell, considering that he is entering his second full season and is pitching in the AL East. 

Still, in the minor leagues he posted a 2.55 BB/9 and 9.64 K/9 (the higher the strikeout rate, the lower the dependence on BABIP in regards to the WHIP).

Those two numbers have the makings of an elite mark.

While he wasn’t quite that good in his rookie year, he was good enough, with a 3.23 BB/9 and 7.33 K/9. Coupled with a .292 BABIP, he posted a 1.34 WHIP. 

With a year of experience under his belt, there certainly is reason to believe that he can improve across the board. That certainly would lead to a better WHIP.

Plus, before you say it’s impossible to post a good WHIP in the AL East, just look at these marks:

• Shaun Marcum – 1.15
• Jeremy Guthrie – 1.16
• Clay Buchholz – 1.20
• Jeff Niemann – 1.26
• Ricky Romero – 1.29

Those aren’t the Jon Lester’s or CC Sabathia’s of the world, either.

Matusz certainly has the potential and could be a great source late in your draft.

Ian Kennedy – Arizona Diamondbacks

In his first full season in the Major Leagues, Kennedy showed why he was high on the Yankees prospect list, posting a 1.20 WHIP thanks to a 3.25 BB/9 and .256 BABIP. 

Obviously, the BABIP is not realistic, though the walks are thanks to a minor league career BB/9 of 2.79.

With his ability to generate strikeouts and limit the walks, it is no wonder that he can be a good source of WHIP for fantasy owners. 

Obviously I wouldn’t count on a 1.20, but there is no reason that, with his proven skills, that he can’t provide for fantasy owners.

Jake Peavy – Chicago White Sox

There are probably a couple of reasons Peavy is being selected late in drafts. 

One is his health, as he tries to recover from a detached ligament. It’s an extremely rare injury and no one really knows exactly what to expect. 

At first, it appeared that he was going to miss at least a little time early in the season, but now that may not be the case. There also was the concern about moving to the AL, which is a very fair concern.

That is more geared towards his ERA, however, not his WHIP. 

In 107.0 innings with the White Sox in ’10 he still managed a 1.23 WHIP. He throws strikes (2.91 career BB/9) and gets strikeouts (8.93 career K/9), which helps limit the effect of BABIP. 

As it is, his BABIP the past four seasons has been between .273 and .280, helping to WHIPs of:

• 2007 – 1.06
• 2008 – 1.18
• 2009 – 1.12
• 2010 – 1.23

There’s a lot of risk, but there is also a huge potential reward.

Bronson Arroyo – Cincinnati Reds

We all know what we are getting when we select Arroyo. 

On occasion, he is going to post a real clunker. He’s not going to post much in the way of strikeouts. He is going to limit the walks.

For his career, he has a 2.73 BB/9 and in ’10 he was at 2.46. While his 1.15 from ’10 is highly unlikely (it came courtesy of a .239 BABIP), he does have a career mark of 1.31 (which is skewed from poor years in ’07 & ’08, due to inflated BABIP).

He’s a late round option for a reason, because he has very little “upside.” 

Still, if you have a staff built with strikeouts and need a steady WHIP option who is going to win games (15 or more each of the past three years), Arroyo certainly has value.

Scott Baker/Kevin Slowey – Minnesota Twins

Interestingly enough, they are competing for the Twins’ fifth starters job, which may help to explain why both are currently available in the later rounds. 

There are rumors that Slowey could be traded, which will help clear up who to target (the answer would be both of them). For now, we are going to have to monitor the news and see how it all plays out.

I believe it was two seasons ago that I wrote an article entitled “Scott Baker the WHIP Maker.” While 2010 is not the best example (1.34), he was at 1.18 and 1.19 the two previous years. He has impeccable control (2.10 career BB/9) and, if the luck returns (he had a .323 BABIP in ’10), there is no reason why he couldn’t get back to the elite numbers. 

If he wins the job (and he currently appears to be the favorite), he’s an absolute bargain.

Slowey, remarkably, is an even better control artist, with a career BB/9 of 1.50 over 473.1 innings—even with a .307 BABIP in ’10 he posted a 1.29 WHIP. 

He is more of a fly ball pitcher (50.6 percent fly ball rate in ’10), so a trade would have a huge impact on his potential value. 

Regardless, with his control, he could be a monster WHIP option.

What are your thoughts of these options? Would you target any of them? Is there someone else you would look at late in your draft to help with WHIP?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out our previous late round articles:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Five Sources of Speed
• Five Sources of Strikeouts

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Oakland Athletics dodged a major bullet this week when it was revealed that Andrew Bailey “only” suffered a strain to his elbow.  While that news is great, at this point we still have no clue exactly when Bailey will be able to return to the mound.  You have to think that he is going to miss the beginning of the season, especially with Brian Fuentes in place to step into the role.

How does this affect the rankings?  Let’s take a look:

1. Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
2. Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
3. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
4. Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
5. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
6. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
7. Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
9. Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
10. Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
11. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
12. Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
13. Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
14. J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
15. Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox

Thoughts

Obviously, these rankings still have another domino to fall as we wait on the Rangers’ decision regarding Neftali Feliz.  Without a suitable in-house replacement, it is still hard for me to believe that they are going to actually stick him in the rotation. 

At the same time, if that’s where they believe he belongs long-term, it makes sense to get the most out of him now.  Of course, considering the number of innings he worked in ’10, would it surprise anyone if he ended up back in the bullpen at some point due to an innings limit?  The situation is fluid, so keep a close eye on it, though the latest has Feliz closing for one more year.

Peter Gammons (via Twitter) yesterday reported that, “Ozzie says Thornton has first dibs on closer role.”  That’s very big news and while it is no guarantee that he holds the job all year, it does give him a boost in value.  He now sneaks onto the Top 15, but keep in mind that it is a tenuous hold at best.  At any time, Chris Sale could overtake him for the job.

The fact that Andrew Bailey’s injury isn’t serious keeps him in the Top 10—at least for now.  Obviously, you aren’t going to want to pay too handsomely for him—given the risk involved—but when right, he’s one of the elite.  Keep that in mind.

Not a believer in a Jonathan Broxton rebound?  Click here for why I think he will.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Brett Anderson had a bit of a coming-out party in 2010, though injuries didn’t allow him to fully put his talents on display. You can see by his numbers what could be possible:

Seven Wins
112.1 Innings
2.80 ERA
1.19 WHIP
75 Strikeouts (6.01 K/9)
22 Walks (1.76 BB/9)
.294 BABIP

It was problems with his elbow that caused him to miss significant time, but it is extremely hard to argue with the results. The most impressive number is probably his control, and that is something that is extremely realistic. In his rookie year, he posted a BB/9 of 2.31 (over 175.1 innings). Over his minor-league career, he’s at 1.88 over 244.2 innings.

Obviously, there is fear of a slight regression, but it certainly isn’t a big one. He has elite control, and that goes a long way toward helping Anderson post impressive WHIPs.

The next impressive feat is his ground-ball rate, which was at 54.6 percent after posting a 50.9 percent mark in his rookie campaign.

So he has great control and is a ground-ball pitcher who calls a pitcher’s park home. How much more do we need to know?

In fact, things get even more impressive. While he struggled with the strikeouts, the injury may have had an impact on that. In his rookie season, he posted a 7.70 K/9, and over his minor-league career he was at 9.60. The fact is there is a good chance he improves here, giving him the perfect trio of skills.

Yes, you can argue that he was slightly lucky with a 75.4 percent strand rate, but improved strikeouts are going to help to offset any regression there. The fact of the matter is Anderson brings the potential to excel in three key aspects of pitching, making him a pitcher we should all target on draft day.

Granted, pitching for the A’s may not give him a tremendous number of opportunities for wins. However, with the bullpen they have assembled (assuming the scare for Andrew Bailey is in fact nothing serious, as they are currently saying), he just needs to get them to the sixth inning with the lead and there is a great chance for victory.

You should have Bailey locking down the ninth. Before him, you have key free-agent imports Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour. Let’s not forget about names like Michael Wuertz, Craig Breslow and others. Oakland’s bullpen has the potential to be one of the best, if not the best in the business. That turns the game from a nine-inning affair into a six-inning one.

My projection for Anderson in 2011:

180.0 IP, 14 W, 3.15 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 150 K (7.50 K/9), 40 BB (2.00 BB/9)

According to Mock Draft Central, Anderson currently has an ADP of 147.93. That’s the 15th round, making him a tremendous value. It’s hard to call him a sleeper, because we all know his name, but he is more than worth grabbing.

What are your thoughts on Anderson? How good do you think he can be? Is he a player you are targeting?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Drew, Stephen
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Phillips, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Reynolds, Mark
• Rios, Alex
• Sanchez, Gaby
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Walker, Neil
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

We still don’t know exactly what the situation is with Chase Utley.  It appears that he could miss some time, though how much is anyone’s guess. 

Will it be a week?  Will it be a month? 

Even if he is somehow able to be ready to start on Opening Day, at this point we all know that this is a potentially chronic knee problem.  Who’s to say that it doesn’t creep up in May or June or, even worse, September when your fantasy title is on the line?

Obviously, he still offers as much upside as anyone at 2B, so that makes the decision on where to rank him all the more difficult.  He has to be moved down, but exactly how far?  These rankings are going off the assumption that he’s going to get between 400 and 450 AB in 2011, meaning I’m projecting him to miss about a month (as well as lose the majority of the benefits he once had to steal a few bases).

If he misses more?  Well, that’s a different story all together.  For now, he has too much upside to drop too far and too much downside not to drop significantly:

1. Robinson Cano – New York Yankees
2. Dustin Pedroia – Boston Red Sox
3. Ian Kinsler – Texas Rangers
4. Dan Uggla – Atlanta Braves
5. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds
6. Martin Prado – Atlanta Braves
7. Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers
8. Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies
9. Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
10. Aaron Hill – Toronto Blue Jays
11. Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles
12. Kelly Johnson – Arizona Diamondbacks
13. Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox
14. Howie Kendrick – Los Angeles Angels
15. Chone Figgins – Seattle Mariners

Thoughts:

• Until we know more about Utley’s situation, the risk far outweighs the reward.  Yes, you could get a prototypical performance from him, but at this point I’d put the chances at under 10%.  It is far more likely that you could nothing out of your early round pick, making it impossible to call his name.  If he falls to the middle rounds, then absolutely.  He still could be one of the most dynamic options at the position.
• Are potential rebounds from Ben Zobrist and Aaron Hill worth more than Utley?  That certainly is debatable, though they are far from locks in their own right.  As we’ve said with Hill, he got very homer happy, but can we be sure that he rectifies it?  (click here for more on Hill)
• Without Utley, do you think fantasy owners will finally realize just how valuable Dan Uggla is?  You know people who once targeted Utley have to turn their attention somewhere, so maybe he will finally get the respect he deserves.  For more on Uggla, check out my projection for 2011 by clicking here.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers 2006 first-round draft pick, has slowly been gaining steam since making his Major League debut in 2008.  He’s been highly regarded since the day he first donned a Los Angeles Dodgers uniform, but his 2010 campaign showed us just how good he could be:

13 Wins
204.1 Innings
2.91 ERA
1.18 WHIP
212 Strikeouts (9.34 K/9)
81 Walks (3.57 BB/9)
.275 BABIP

There really is little not to like from those numbers, isn’t there?  There also is nothing overly unrealistic about them either.  The BABIP is not overly lucky.  He posted a strand rate of 76.2 percent, right along the lines of his career mark of 76.5 percent. 

Where he has vastly improved since making his debut is in his walk rate:

• 2008 – 4.35 BB/9
• 2009 – 4.79 BB/9
• 2010 – 3.57 BB/9

Is he able to replicate, if not better, that number is what will ultimately determine his overall success in 2011.  First of all, by limiting the walks, he was able to work deeper into games.  In 2009 he threw 5.63 innings per start, leading to just eight wins.  In 2010 he threw 6.38 innings per start, and you could see the increase in his wins from the statistics above.

The deeper a starting pitcher can go into games, the more opportunity he is going to have for wins.  There just is no way around that, because you never know exactly what your bullpen is going to do.  One would have thought Jonathan Broxton would’ve been able to hold on to just about every lead he was handed, but that wasn’t the case in ’10.  The more outs you can get yourself, the more you put your fate into your own hands.

The drop in the walk rate also allows him to post a potentially elite WHIP.  He was just outside the Top 20 in 2010 and, with his strikeout rate, there is no reason to think that he can’t repeat that type of performance again as long as he maintains the walk rate.  If he can take a step forward, he is going to be among the best in the league.

What is interesting to note is that as his strikeouts fell during the year, his walk rate improved.  In the first half of the season he had a K/9 of 10.28, but a BB/9 of 4.01.  In the second half he had a K/9 of 8.22, but a BB/9 of 3.03.

Is there any conclusion we can draw from this?  Do we think Kershaw is going to focus on pounding the strike zone, lowering his strikeout rate in favor of walking fewer batters? 

It’s something to watch, but it is hard to imagine Kershaw not being among the elite strikeout artists in the game.  If he can maintain that, along with the impeccable second half control, the sky truly is the limit.

Let’s take a look at what I am projecting for him in 2011:

200.0 IP, 16 W, 2.88 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 211 K (9.50 K/9), 80 BB (3.60 BB/9)

He’s already proven that he has the stuff to be a Top 10 pitcher, making him a tremendous selection on draft day.

What are your thoughts of Kershaw?  Can he be a Top 10 pitcher in 2011?  What are the chances of that happening?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Drew, Stephen
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Phillips, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Reynolds, Mark
• Rios, Alex
• Sanchez, Gaby
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

If you play in a standard 5×5 format, you can view my rankings by clicking here.  For leagues that utilize OBP instead of average, there are a few significant changes.  Let’s take a look at how things look:

1. Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins
2. Troy Tulowitzki – Colorado Rockies
3. Jose Reyes – New York Mets
4. Elvis Andrus – Texas Rangers
5. Derek Jeter – New York Yankees
6. Jimmy Rollins – Philadelphia Phillies
7. Alexei Ramirez – Chicago White Sox
8. Stephen Drew – Arizona Diamondbacks
9. Starlin Castro – Chicago Cubs
10. Alcides Escobar – Kansas City Royals
11. Ian Desmond – Washington Nationals
12. Jhonny Peralta – Detroit Tigers
13. Juan Uribe – Los Angeles Dodgers
14. Rafael Furcal – Los Angeles Dodgers
15. Yunel Escobar – Toronto Blue Jays

Thoughts:

• Jose Reyes has a lot to prove, both in regards to his health and his performance on the field.  From 2006-2009, Reyes posted an OBP between .354 and .358.  Last season, he fell to .321 thanks to a poor walk rate (5.1 percent).  You would have to expect a healthy Reyes to rectify the problem and entrench himself again as one of the most exciting players in the game, wouldn’t you?  It certainly is worth noting, however, because if he struggles there again, his value is going to take a hit.
• Despite getting older, we all know that Derek Jeter knows how to get on base.  For his career, he has a .385 OBP and is just a year removed from a .406 mark.  I know he was at .340 in ’10, but that came courtesy of a career worst .307 BABIP.  Is anyone really worried that he won’t rebound?
• Jimmy Rollins has never posted an OBP above .345.  Over the past two years, he’s posted marks of .296 and .320.  Yes, part of that is tied to his struggles in the average department (BABIP of .251 and .246), but he has never once posted an elite mark.  This type of format has to knock him down a peg.
• Prior to last season’s struggles, Yunel Escobar had posted OBP of .385, .366 and .377.  In this type of format, he has a lot of value in the later rounds.  Don’t overlook him late in your draft, as he certainly has the potential to hold value.  For more on Escobar, check out an article discussing four late-round shortstop options by clicking here.
• Which side of the fence do you fall on Stephen Drew?  Are you a believer in him?  Do you think he’s overrated?  Check out a few of my thoughts by clicking here.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide and the 2011 OBP League Supplement, selling for just $8, by clicking here. 

Make sure to check out our 2011 OBP rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

As we’ve discussed before, a late-round option is someone who has an ADP after Round 18 (216) according to Mock Draft Central.  Considering how many question marks there are at the top of the shortstop rankings, the idea of nabbing one of these guys as a safety net is probably a very good idea:

Alcides Escobar – Kansas City Royals
After he disappointed in his rookie campaign with the Milwaukee Brewers (.235, 4 HR, 41 RBI, 57 R, 10 SB), it is not surprising that fantasy owners are shying away from him.  An ADP of 34.02, though?  That seems to be taking things to an extreme.

Let us not forget that Escobar was regarded as one of the elite prospects in the game not too long ago.  He is the same player who hit .298 with 42 SB in 430 AB at Triple-A in 2009.  I know you want to point to how disappointing his SB total was in ’10, but that is just as much an indication of the old Brewers philosophy as it is Escobar’s ability.  Exactly when is the last time a Brewers player put up a big stolen base total?  It just hasn’t happened in recent years.

The rest of Escobar’s struggles can certainly be considered luck related.  It’s not like he appeared overmatched at the plate, with a 13.8% strikeout rate.  Instead, he posted a BABIP of .264.  For a player with his type of speed, that’s almost unthinkable.

I wouldn’t consider him as a starting shortstop, but as a depth option or if you need a middle infielder, he is a great pick late in your draft.  He is just 24 years old and could easily put it all together in 2011.

Yunel Escobar – Toronto Blue Jays
He was awful in Atlanta, hitting .238 with 0 HR in 261 AB.  After he was traded to Toronto in the middle of the year, however, he finally showed life.  In 236 AB, he hit .275 with four HR.

Those early season struggles certainly help cause people to ignore him on draft day.  In 2008 and 2009, he hit 10 and 14 HR due to HR/FB of 9.1% and 10.1%, respectively.  Are we really to believe his 3.3% mark in ’10?  You couple that with the move to Toronto, which saw most hit for a ton of power in 2010, and there certainly is hope.  Is he going to be a huge source of power?  Of course not, but how many shortstops are, especially that late in the draft?

He should provide a solid average with some power, to go along with the potential of 70+ R and RBI.  There’s not much more that you can ask for.

Cliff Pennington – Oakland Athletics
The 2010 season was his first full year, and he delivered a .250 average with six HR and 29 SB.  Considering his ADP of 373.83, that’s pretty solid production.  Plus, if you are not a believer in the stolen base total, he had 31 SB in 440 AB between Double & Triple-A in ’08 and 27 SB in 360 AB at Triple-A in ’09.  The guy is certainly a solid source of speed.

He’s not going to bring any type of power, which hurts his value, but he should give a much better average than he did in ’10.  With his speed, you would expect a better BABIP, which was at .296 in ’10.

Unfortunately, he doesn’t play for a high-powered offense, meaning he’s not likely to pile up the R or RBI.  However, at that stage of the draft, getting an option with speed that should hit for a good average is about as much as anyone can ask.

Jhonny Peralta – Detroit Tigers
Peralta was previously discussed as a late-round option among third basemen (click here to view), so make sure to check that article out for more on him.

What are your thoughts of these players?  Which would you target late in your draft?  Is there another shortstop you are eyeing?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our previous late round articles:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Five Sources of Speed

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

According to Ken Rosenthal via Twitter, “MRI on Greinke revealed one bruised rib and one hairline fracture. Bone will take four to six weeks to heal”.

Mlb.com has also posted an article (click here to view), clarifying things a little bit:

“Greinke, the team’s biggest offseason addition and likely Opening Day starter, had made two Cactus League starts with sore ribs before undergoing an MRI scan on Monday that revealed a minor fracture of his seventh rib and a bone bruise on his eighth rib. The normal recovery time is four to six weeks from the time of injury, Brewers head physician William Raasch said, meaning Greinke is already about two weeks into the healing process.”

That puts him out for about another two to four weeks.  When you work in time on the mound (since he will miss the remainder of Spring Training) to get into game shape, it would appear that he is going to miss anywhere from the first two to four weeks of the season. 

It’s a huge hit to his potential value, there’s no question about that, but it doesn’t mean that he should be ignored completely on draft day. 

With the move to the NL he still has the potential to post gaudy numbers when he does take the mound.  The problem is, we don’t know exactly how long he is going to be out, and the uncertainty just further hurts his perceived value on draft day. 

For now I have to assume the worst, meaning his projected innings drops to around 180.  Hopefully he’s able to return sooner, however.

Let’s take a look at how far he drops in the rankings (these will again be re-evaluated as more information becomes available):

1. Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies
2. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
3. Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants
4. Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox
5. CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
6. Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies
7. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels
9. Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers
10. Ubaldo Jimenez – Colorado Rockies
11. Josh Johnson – Florida Marlins
12. Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins
13. Chris Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
14. Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers
15. Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
16. Clay Buccholz – Boston Red Sox
17. Mat Latos – San Diego Padres
18. Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves
19. Dan Haren – Los Angeles Angels
20. Roy Oswalt – Philadelphia Phillies
21. Zack Greinke – Milwaukee Brewers
22. Colby Lewis – Texas Rangers
23. David Price – Tampa Bay Rays
24. Ricky Nolasco – Florida Marlins
25. Brett Anderson – Oakland Athletics
26. Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants
27. Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers
28. Matt Garza – Chicago Cubs
29. Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox
30. Chad Billingsley – Los Angeles Dodgers

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 15 Closers

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

At one time Brandon Phillips was considered among the cream of the crop of second basemen.  In 2007 he posted his only career 30/30 campaign.  In the two subsequent seasons he followed it up with 20/20 years, clearly keeping him among the elite at his position.

The 2010 season, however, saw him return to the leadoff spot to mixed results:

626 At Bats
.275 Batting Average (172 Hits)
18 Home Runs
59 RBI
100 Runs
16 Stolen Bases
.332 On-Base Percentage
.430 Slugging Percentage
.293 Batting Average on Balls in Play

His game really doesn’t lend itself to the top of the order, though it did help him to his second career 100+ R campaign.  However, wouldn’t you expect to see his stolen base total increase, not decrease?

One of the problems was that he was caught stealing 12 times, a career high.  The prior four years he had stolen at least 25 bases and, at 29 years old, is it really possible that he just suddenly lost his ability to swipe a bag?  Unlikely, to say the least.  

He should be able to return to his 20+ SB days without a big issue in 2011.

As for the power, outside of his 30 HR breakout in 2007, he has been in the 17-21 HR range in his four full seasons.  Hitter’s paradise or not, it appears that this is the type of power he possesses.  There is certainly nothing wrong with it, but just don’t go drafting him expecting anything more.

The run production is simply going to depend on where in the lineup he hits.  While he did struggle to a .246 average with runners in scoring position, the fact that he was hitting leadoff was more responsible for his low RBI total.  If the Reds were to move him back down to fourth or fifth in the order, it would almost be a given that he returns to driving in 90+ R.

However, there is a trade off, since it would be virtually impossible for him to score over 100 runs.  With poor on-base skills (career .316 mark) and without the Joey Votto’s of the world behind him, it is just not going to happen.

Let’s see how it all comes together for my 2011 projection:

.277 (166-600), 18 HR, 65 RBI, 100 R, 20 SB, .297 BABIP, .332 OBP, .435 SLG

Clearly, this is based on the idea of him returning to the leadoff spot this season.  At this point I just don’t see many other options, unless they feel Drew Stubbs can handle the duties. 

However, with the emergence of Jay Bruce, I don’t see the Reds feeling the need to thrust Phillips into the cleanup spot as they have in the past.

Wherever he hits, he’s going to have value.  He should put up a solid average to go along with nearly 20/20 production.  Whether he has 100 R and 65 RBI or 90 RBI and 75 R, he should be in the realm of 165 runs produced.  That certainly is nothing to complain about. 

Are they elite numbers?  No, but they are good enough to consider him a step below the best in the league.

What are your thoughts of Phillips?  Is he still an elite second baseman?  Where do you rank him?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Reynolds, Mark
• Rios, Alex
• Sanchez, Gaby
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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When you are a pitcher in the Pittsburgh Pirates minor league system, there is hope that you could make an impact in the Major Leagues sooner, rather than later.  Enter 2006 28th round draft pick Rudy Owens, who looked great at Double-A in ’10 and could make his Pirates debut before long.

Granted, he is likely ticketed to open the year at Triple-A, but he’ll be just a call away.  For those thinking Jameson Taillon could get the first opportunity, it seems like a bit of a stretch.  Yes, he has the higher upside (as does Stetson Allie), but he is just 19-years old (Allie, meanwhile, turns 20 in March).  It’s not like the Pirates are going anywhere in 2011, so why would they rush two of their premier prospects?

At the same time, there is an awful lot to like about Owens.  First, look at his 2010 line:

12 Wins
150.0 Innings
2.46 ERA
0.98 WHIP
132 Strikeouts (7.92 K/9)
23 Walks (1.38 BB/9)
.273 BABIP

Think that walk rate is not believable?  It has been consistent at every level since being drafted.  The lefty has a minor league career BB/9 of 1.55 over 354 innings.  That’s pinpoint control, and it certainly goes a long way in helping him be productive.

Known as nothing more than a control artist, Owens took a step to changing that outlook in 2010.  Just look at what Baseball America had to say when ranking him as the Pirates’ seventh best prospect:

“Owens grew stronger as the season progressed in another way, too, as his fastball went from 87-90 to 90-93 mph down the stretch. The extra velocity highly encouraged the Pirates, who proclaimed that his soft-tossing-lefty tag no longer applied.”

If he can maintain that, there certainly is a whole lot to like.  He’s not likely to develop into a top-flight strikeout pitcher, but if he can post a K/9 right around 7.0 he should prove to be incredibly productive.

The Pirates have recently had pitchers burst onto the scene, most notably Zach Duke a few years ago.  Coincidentally, Baseball America compares Owens to Duke.  Is it a good sign for fantasy owners?  Long-term you have to wonder, but in 2011 it could mean catching lightning in a bottle.

Obviously, pitching for the Pirates is going to be a bit of a negative hanging over him.  If that’s the only bad thing we can say (as well as maybe being a little bit lucky), are we really going to shy away?  In the second half he could be a pitcher that helps to put your team over the top, meaning he is certainly a name to have on your radar.

What are your thoughts of Owens?  Do you think he can be worth owning in 2011?  Why or why not?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we head towards 2011:

• Ackley, Dustin
• Archer, Chris
• Britton, Zach
• Chisenhall, Lonnie
• Cousins, Scott
• d’Arnaud, Chase
• Iglesias, Jose
• Kipnis, Jason
• Lawrie, Brett
• Mesoraco, Devin
• Pineda, Michael
• Ramos, Wilson
• Revere, Ben
• Taylor, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com