Kuzul

Mark Reynolds has always been an all-or-nothing type of hitter.

Even when he posted his 44 HR campaign in 2009, he managed to strikeout 38.6 percent of the time. He followed that up by hitting 32 HR and seeing his strikeout rate rise to 42.3 percent in 2010.

Yes, he did struggle with multiple injuries, but does that justify his poor season or is it just an excuse in an attempt to cover his obvious flaws?

Now he moves to the AL East, where he will attempt to resurrect his value. Hitting for power is nice, but look at his averages over the past three seasons:

• 2008 – .239
• 2009 – .260
• 2010 – .198

Sure, if he can hit 40-plus HR he can post a usable average, but is anyone actually going to bank on that?

His best strikeout rate of his career came in his rookie season, when he was at 35.2 percent. Now that he’s facing pitchers that he has minimal history with, can we really expect him to make significant improvements?

In 2010, he faced the AL East in interleague play and posted the following stellar numbers against his new division mates:

• Boston Red Sox: 0-11, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 9 K
• New York Yankees: 2-9, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R, 4 K
• Toronto Blue Jays: 4-11, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, 5 K

I know it’s an extremely small sample size, but how excited are we now?

Throw in the fact that he’s moving away from Chase Field and things look even bleaker. I know Camden Yards is a favorable hitter’s park, but look at his 2010 splits at home and on the road:

• Home: .216, 21 HR, 53 RBI, 43 R
• Road: .181, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 36 R

It hasn’t always been such a stark contrast, but it is very much worth noting.

Yes, his 2010 average was based on a little bit of poor luck (.257), but he also seemed to get more homer happy than normal (54.9 percent fly ball rate).

If he corrects that, maybe he can post more usable numbers. But does anyone really want to take this type of gamble?

I know some people want to think of him as a power/speed option, but that doesn’t seem very accurate. One season of 24 SB does not make a speedster, especially when you realize he has just 18 SB in his other three seasons combined.

The bottom line is that this is what I am projecting for him in 2011:

.238 (131-550), 33 HR, 90 RBI, 80 R, 9 SB, .319 BABIP, .319 OBP, .467 SLG, 38.18 percent K.

Calling him a wild card would be an extremely huge understatement. Yes, he has power potential and could deliver 40 HR, but there’s a better chance that he hits .220 than .270 and a good chance he doesn’t provide much in the way of speed, either.

That puts a huge black cloud over him and leaves him as a last resort for the power starved.

What are your thoughts? Is Reynolds someone you would target? What are you expecting from him in 2011?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Rios, Alex
• Sanchez, Gaby
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Closer is a unique position in general, but it is especially so in keeper leagues.  With the uncertainty surrounding it from year-to-year, it is rarely worth locking them up (unless you are in a league that keeps a significant number of players).  If you have a young closer who has proven that they can do it year in and year out, then maybe, but otherwise you are generally picking with just the here and now in mind.  Remember that as you view these rankings:

1. Joakim Soria—Kansas City Royals
2. Neftali Feliz—Texas Rangers
3. Heath Bell—San Diego Padres
4. Brian Wilson—San Francisco Giants
5. Andrew Bailey—Oakland Athletics
6. Carlos Marmol—Chicago Cubs
7. Mariano Rivera—New York Yankees
8. Jonathan Papelbon—Boston Red Sox
9. Jonathan Broxton—Los Angeles Dodgers
10. Francisco Rodriguez—New York Mets
11. Huston Street—Colorado Rockies
12. Jose Valverde—Detroit Tigers
13. J.J. Putz—Arizona Diamondbacks
14. Chris Perez—Cleveland Indians
15. Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters—Atlanta Braves

Thoughts:

• Will Neftali Feliz return to the starting rotation or will he stay in the closer’s role?  That’s really the big question and at this point it is impossible to answer.  If he’s closing he is going to be among the elite options long-term, so I’m leaving him on here for now.  Should something change, it will have a huge ripple effect on the rankings.
• Poor team or not, at 25-years old it is impossible to place anyone aside from Joakim Soria atop these rankings.  He’s just too good already, has proven it for multiple years and, as I’ve said before, a lot of times bad teams yield the best closers.  How often are they going to be blowing anyone out?
• Mariano Rivera is amazing.  We all know it.  Still, at 40-years old his time is going to come to an end, sooner or later.  Considering that closers are generally not kept, he stays relatively high on these rankings.
• I am nervous when it comes to Carlos Marmol, as I’ve stated before (click here to view).  Still, at his age and with his strikeout potential, he has to be considered one of the better options in keeper leagues.
• With Joe Nathan’s future uncertain as he returns from Tommy John surgery, he falls of these rankings for now.  When we know what the Twins plan for him and the closers role, he will probably jump back in.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 keeper league rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 15 Third Basemen

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Gaby Sanchez hit .302 over 1,753 minor league at-bats. The Marlins gave him cups of coffee in the major leagues in 2008 (eight AB) and 2009 (21 AB), before finally handing the former fourth-round draft pick the full-time first base job in 2010. He did deliver, posting the following line:

572 At Bats
.273 Batting Average (156 Hits)
19 Home Runs
85 RBI
72 Runs
5 Stolen Bases
.341 On Base Percentage
.448 Slugging Percentage
.299 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Now the question for fantasy owners is if he cannot only replicate those numbers, but if he can expand on them. Let’s be honest, for as nice as the numbers are, they are far from what we are expecting from a first baseman. Where’s the power? Where’s the big-time average?

Over his minor league career, Sanchez hit just 62 HR, or a home run once every 28.3 at-bats (only slightly better than his 30.1 mark in ’10). In 2009, he had 318 AB in the Pacific Coast League, hitting just 16 HR.

While he did post a nice 46.1 percent fly ball rate, his HR/FB was just 8.7 percent. He had 37 doubles and three triples so, at 27 years old, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him add a little bit of power and see some of those extra base hits fly over the fence. However, given his track record, it’s impossible to expect a huge increase. Putting him in the low 20s seems like a good bet, but that’s far from your prototypical first baseman.

There is room for growth in his average, given his minor league career and a .299 BABIP in ‘10. Throw in a good contact rate (17.7 percent in ’10, but he was at 13.7 percent mark at Triple-A), and there is reason to believe. Like the power, I’m not sure that you can expect a huge increase, but improving to .280 or .290? Sure, why not. 

Again, however, is it enough?

Throw in the fact that he’ll likely be hitting fifth or sixth, and there is actually a lot of reasons to stay away from him. Sure, he’ll be in a position to drive in some runs, but it doesn’t seem like the lineup will allow him to drive in 100, especially if he’s hitting sixth. Scoring runs? I don’t think so. Not hitting that late in the Marlins order.

The whole thing adds up to the following projection:

.285 (164-575), 23 HR, 80 RBI, 90 R, 6 SB, .311 BABIP, .362 OBP, .470 SLG

Those numbers are fine and dandy but not from a first baseman. You need someone who is going to hit a lot of home runs, or at least, hit for a great average and drive in some runs. Without that, you are going to be significantly behind the competition.

As a corner infielder? Absolutely, there’s nothing wrong with him. He’s a solid option and certainly stacks up with the low-end 1B or the majority of 3B as well. If you are in a shallower format, however, there are better options you can look towards.

What are your thoughts on Sanchez? Is he someone you would target? Why or why not?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

Barmes, Clint
Buchholz, Clay
Butler, Billy
Choo, Shin-Soo
Ethier, Andre
Freese, David
Hudson, Tim
Hughes, Phil
Jaso, John
Johnson, Chris
Uggla, Dan
Morrow, Brandon
Reyes, Jose
Rios, Alex
Stanton, Mike
Suzuki, Kurt
Wieters, Matt
Willingham, Josh
Young, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

When you mention the name Ian Kinsler, there are a few thoughts that likely instantly come to mind:

1. Extremely disappointing 2010
2. Injury prone
3. 20/20 upside

We all know he is likely going to miss at least a little bit of time at some point in 2011.  He has never played more than 144 games in a season (2009) and played in just 103 last season.  When you draft him, you do so expecting to have to utilize a replacement option.

The real question, however, is if he can rebound from ’10 and reach that potential upside, just like he did in ’09.  Before we can answer that, let’s look at how bad he was last year: 391 AB, .286 BA (112 Hits), 9 HR, 45 RBI, 73 R, 15 SB, .382 OBP, .412 SLG, .313 BABIP.

Outside of his OBP, which was actually significantly better than his ’09 mark (.327), and his average (.253), the numbers were extremely disappointing.  You can blame it on injuries all you want, but even when he was on the field the production just wasn’t there.

The improvement in average and OBP are extremely explainable and we’ll get to that in a moment.

You notice that I said 20/20 potential in the intro, despite the fact that he actually went 30/30 in ’09 (31 HR, 31 SB).  The fact of the matter is that there is little chance that he replicates the power number, specifically.  Just look at his fly ball percentage for the past five years:

• 2006 – 44.2 percent
• 2007 – 45.7 percent
• 2008 – 43.3 percent
• 2009 – 54.0 percent
• 2010 – 41.6 percent

Which of these numbers doesn’t belong?  That fly ball rate not only helps to explain the fall in power, but also the improvement in the average department.  Fly balls don’t lend themselves to good luck, meaning a low BABIP is expected.  Look no further than his .241 mark in ’09 for proof.  Getting away from being a bit homer happy helped Kinsler get back to being a good option in both the average and OBP departments.

The Rangers plan on taking advantage of that improvement in 2011.  According to Jeff Wilson of the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram, “Manager Ron Washington said that he is planning to have Ian Kinsler bat leadoff in 2011 and move Michael Young to sixth in the lineup so that he can be in a spot where he will have an opportunity to drive in more runs. Elvis Andrus will bat second, Young’s former spot.”

That should give him a good chance to return to the days of scoring 95-plus runs (as he did from 2007-2009).  Yes, it will likely lead to fewer RBI opportunities, but that really shouldn’t be Kinsler’s game.  He’s not a big-time power hitter ,and hitting him lower in the order will only expose him further.

Kinsler should be a top-of-the-order option, where he can get on base, steal a few bags and score plenty of runs.  If you draft him expecting someone who is going to hit 30 HR and drive in at least 85, you are going to be sorely disappointed. 

Basically, put 2009 out of your mind, because it is not likely to be repeated.

What we should be looking for is the player he was in 2007 and 2008, meaning 20 HR, 25-plus SB and 95-plus runs.  If he can do that, what is there to complain about?

What are your thoughts on Kinsler?  What are you expecting from him in 2011? 

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Rios, Alex
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

If you play in a standard five-by-five league (i.e., one that includes batting average), you will want to check out our standard league rankings by clicking here.  For those who utilize OBP, let’s take a look at how that changes the rankings (and it does so fairly significantly):

1. Robinson Cano – New York Yankees
2. Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies
3. Dustin Pedroia – Boston Red Sox
4. Dan Uggla – Atlanta Braves
5. Ian Kinsler – Texas Rangers
6. Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
7. Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers
8. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds
9. Martin Prado – Atlanta Braves
10. Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles
11. Kelly Johnson – Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Aaron Hill – Toronto Blue Jays
13. Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox
14. Chone Figgins – Seattle Mariners
15. Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Minnesota Twins

Thoughts:

• Ben Zobrist struggled in ’10, no one is going to argue that fact, but he still managed a 14.0 percent walk rate.  That helped him post a .346 OBP despite struggling with a .273 BABIP.  Let’s not forget that he is just a year removed from a .405 OBP courtesy of a 15.2 percent walk rate and .326 BABIP.  There certainly is reason to believe that he could post a tremendous mark once again in ’11.  Couple that with 20/20 potential and there is an awful lot to like, pushing him significantly up this list.
• The player who falls the most thanks to the removal of average and addition of on-base percentage is Aaron Hill.  Even in his big, breakout 2009 campaign (.286, 36 HR, 108 RBI, 103 R), he managed just a .330 OBP thanks to a 5.7 percent walk rate.  Yes, the average is going to rebound due to his historic poor luck in ’10 (you can read more about it by clicking here), but he’s just never going to post a strong OBP (career .325 mark).
• Another loser is Brandon Phillips, who has a career walk rate of 5.9 percent and OBP of .316.  You still have to like him thanks to 20/20 potential, but there certainly are options with significantly more upside in the OBP department.  One who is close is Martin Prado, but his advantage in OBP isn’t enough considering Phillips could out produce him in HR, SB, RBI and R (depending on where he hits in the lineup).
• Tsuyoshi Nishioka posted a 12.2 percent walk rate over his last two seasons in Japan.  Granted, we really don’t know how his game is going to translate to the Major Leagues, but at that point in the draft he is well worth the risk due to his potential in OBP, R and SB.
• Who should be listed at No. 4, Dan Uggla or Ian Kinsler?  I know we all want to push Uggla up, thanks to OBP of .360, .354 and .369 the past three years but we can’t overlook Kinsler’s abilities as well.  In 2008 he actually posted an OBP of .375 and last season he was at .382.  Of course, he always struggles with injuries and his walk rate has fluctuated by a fairly large margin from year to year.  I’m going to give Uggla the nod for now, but it certainly is open for discussion.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 OBP rankings:

• Top 15 First Basemen

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Carlos Marmol brings an exceptional strikeout rate to the closers role.  There is no arguing that fact, but that shouldn’t cause us to overlook the warts that do come with selecting him. 

Can he be one of the elite closers in the game in 2011?  Absolutely, but there is also the chance that he completely falls flat.  Which will it be?  Let’s start by taking a look at his 2010 performance:

2 Wins
38 Saves
77.2 Innings
2.55 ERA
1.18 WHIP
138 Strikeouts (15.99 K/9)
52 Walks (6.03 BB/9)
.293 BABIP 

The strikeouts are exceptional, but can we really expect him to be able to replicate it?  Yes, he should continue to be an elite option among relievers, but look at his K/9 the prior three years as a full-time reliever:

2007—12.46 (96 K over 69.1 innings)

2008—11.75 (114 K over 87.1 innings)

2009—11.31 (93 K over 74.0 innings)

They are all impressive numbers, but they aren’t quite the 138 strikeouts that he posted in ’10.  If he posts 20-30 fewer strikeouts, his value will take a hit. 

Among relief pitchers with at least 50 innings in 2010, there were 26 pitchers who posted a K/9 of 10.0 or better.  Included in that group were closers like John Axford, Heath Bell and Brian Wilson, among others.

If he can’t maintain the elite strikeout rate, which I would suspect that he can’t, the other numbers are going to play a significant role in how valuable he is compared to other options.

Obviously, the most glaring number is his walk rate, something that could ultimately cost him his job. 

If he strikes out fewer batters, he is likely going to allow more hits (due to there being more balls put in play).  When that happens, the sheer number of walks he posts could easily come back to haunt him.  You cannot continually walk the ballpark and just expect to strikeout the next three guys and get out of the jam.  Sooner or later it is going to bite you.

Keep in mind in 2009, with a BABIP of .252, he posted a WHIP of 1.46.  Yes, his ERA was still a usable 3.41, but that easily could go the other way.

You also have to consider his fly ball rate of 48.1 percent, which was actually the best mark of his career.  Yet, he posted a HR/FB of 1.6 percent and a HR/9 of 0.12. 

Are those numbers that we can really anticipate him repeating (I know his HR/9 in ’09 was 0.24, but he was at 1.03 in ’08)?  Sooner or later some of those fly balls are going to find their way over the fence.  If that happens, along with all the walks he allows, would it be a surprise to see him struggle?

I’m not suggesting avoiding Marmol in the least.  With his strikeout rate he is going to be a viable closer in all formats. 

However, do not let the stellar strikeout rate distract you from the risk that surrounds him.  If the walks continue he easily could struggle and ultimately find himself out of the closers role, at least for a little while.  Don’t look past Jonathan Broxton in ’10 for proof.

The walks have to be a concern, and they do help to push him down my rankings (he was tenth on my most recent rankings, which you can view by clicking here).  Proceed with caution, because there is a ton of risk.

What are your thoughts on Marmol?  How do you see him performing in 2011?  What are the chances that he loses his job at some point?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Rios, Alex
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Is speed something you look for late in your draft? 

Here are five guys who are generally available after Round 18 (meaning they have an ADP of 216 or above, according to Mock Draft Central), and I currently have them projected to steal at least 25 bases each. 

If you have the need for speed, these are certainly names worth targeting:

Jose Tabata – Pittsburgh Pirates

I discussed him briefly as part of a wild prediction (click here to view) and there certainly is reason for fantasy owners to take notice.  With an ADP of 271.02, he has the potential to be a bargain.

In his first taste in the Major Leagues (405 AB), Tabata hit .299 with 61 R and 19 SB. That doesn’t mention the 25 SB he had at Triple-A in 224 AB prior to his recall, so no one should be doubting his speed. 

Throw in the fact that there has been talk that the Pirates are going to be more aggressive on the base paths, and there is even more to like.

I know people are going to point to his lack of SB prior to 2010, but remember he just turned 21 years old in ’10.  He was young and inexperienced and still learning the nuances of the game.

I also believe that there’s a good chance Tabata ultimately settles into the leadoff spot (if he doesn’t open the year there), with Andrew McCutchen moving down to the third spot.  That would provide Tabata even more opportunities to run.

Is he going to be one of these guys who steals 60-70 bases?  Of course not, but how many guys are?  He could easily steal over 25 bases, with the potential for significantly more.

Rajai Davis – Toronto Blue Jays

Before the addition of Scott Podsednik, we may have felt a little bit more comfortable with Davis’ use as a late-round steal option (current ADP of 289.92). 

There is now a chance that he loses a few at bats, so keep that in mind in comparison to the other options listed.

Over the past two seasons, Davis has stolen 91 bases for the Oakland Athletics, though the team seemed to prefer Coco Crisp (who we will talk about shortly) as the leadoff option when he was healthy. 

Why?  Well, Davis is not the best OBP option, something that teams obviously look for at the top of the order.

I know he had a .360 mark in 2009, but he was at just .320 last season.  He has a career walk rate of just 5.9% and was at 4.6% in ’10.  He needs to improve those marks so he can make the most of his speed (though he showed that he can still steal bases even if he doesn’t have an elite OBP). 

As long as he maintains regular playing time, he is going to be a solid late-round option, but there is a bit of risk.

Angel Pagan – New York Mets

You would think that people would believe in Pagan after he broke out in 2010, wouldn’t you?  Alas, owners seem to be a bit skeptical after he hit .290 with 11 HR, 69 RBI, 80 R and 37 SB. 

Maybe it is his injury-prone history?  Or is it the return of Carlos Beltran that has owners concerned?  Regardless, it would appear like Pagan is a bargain at his current ADP of 297.10.

Do not get me wrong, as I think there is little chance that he improves on his ’10 success and very well could see a bit of a regression.  However, that is a story for another day. 

What we are looking for here are players who can provide plenty of speed late in your draft, and Pagan fits the bill.

Over the past two seasons, he has 51 stolen bases in 67 attempts.  There is no reason to think that the Mets are going to put the brakes on, even with a change in leadership. 

Pagan should get the green light hitting second in the Mets order, meaning 30+ should be realistic for a second consecutive season. 

Desmond Jennings – Tampa Bay Rays

Sooner or later, he is going to be looked at as the replacement to Carl Crawford, it is just a matter of when. 

The signings of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez may have delayed his arrival slightly, but that doesn’t change his potential outlook, it only drives down the asking price (306.59 current ADP).

Over his minor-league career, he has stolen 171 bases in 204 attempts.  Last season he had 37 SB in 399 AB at Triple-A. 

In ’09 he had 52 SB in 497 AB between Double-A and Triple-A.  The guy can run and, if he’s given an opportunity, he is going to show it.

Obviously he may not have much value early on, especially for those in shallower formats, because he could easily open the year at Triple-A. 

However, for those in deeper formats, stashing him for usage later on is certainly appealing.

Coco Crisp – Oakland Athletics

Can he stay healthy?  That really is the question.  He had just 290 AB in ’10, yet he managed to steal 32 bases in 35 attempts.

Of course you can call that a bit of an aberration, considering he had never stolen more than 28 bases in a season since his Major League debut back in 2002.  Or maybe it was just the A’s finally gave him the green light and let him run wild? 

With an ADP of 334.76, it certainly is worth rolling the dice to find out if you find yourself lacking in speed late in the draft.

What are your thoughts of these options?  Which would you target late in your draft if you were in need of speed?  Is there another option you would consider?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our previous late round articles:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The news officially broke this afternoon: Adam Wainwright will in fact undergo Tommy John surgery costing him the entire 2011 season (and, quite possibly, a good chunk of 2012 as well).

Wainwright, coming off a year in which he went 20-11 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 213 K and finished second in the NL Cy Young voting, had come in at No. 5 in our previous starting pitcher rankings (click here to view, which will also bring a little bit more insight into the rankings).  It just shows how big of a void his injury leaves on fantasy baseball draft boards.

We have to persevere, however, so let’s take a look at how the Top 30 pitchers now look:

1. Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies
2. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
3. Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants
4. Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox
5. CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
6. Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies
7. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Zack Greinke – Milwaukee Brewers
9. Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels
10. Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers
11. Ubaldo Jimenez – Colorado Rockies
12. Josh Johnson – Florida Marlins
13. Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins
14. Chris Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
15. Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers
16. Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
17. Clay Buchholz – Boston Red Sox
18. Mat Latos – San Diego Padres
19. Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves
20. Dan Haren – Los Angeles Angels
21. Roy Oswalt – Philadelphia Phillies
22. Colby Lewis – Texas Rangers
23. David Price – Tampa Bay Rays
24. Ricky Nolasco – Florida Marlins
25. Brett Anderson – Oakland Athletics
26. Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants
27. Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers
28. Matt Garza – Chicago Cubs
29. Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox
30. Chad Billingsley – Los Angeles Dodgers

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

For those who are in standard 5×5 formats that use batting average, you can check out our general first base rankings by clicking here.  If you are in a league that utilizes on-base percentage, however, things take on a bit of a different look. 

Let’s take a look at how are first base rankings look when we take average out and replace it by OBP:

1. Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals
2. Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds
3. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
4. Adrian Gonzalez – Boston Red Sox
5. Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers
6. Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees
7. Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies
8. Adam Dunn – Chicago White Sox
9. Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox
10. Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins
11. Paul Konerko – Chicago White Sox
12. Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels
13. Carlos Pena – Chicago Cubs
14. Billy Butler – Kansas City Royals
15. Victor Martinez – Detroit Tigers

Thoughts:

• Miguel Cabrera was not dropped because of his issues this spring (though they could eventually to cause him to fall even further).  Joey Votto has simply shown a tremendous job of getting on base (.414 & .424 the past two years).  While Cabrera did post a .420 in ’10, his career mark is .388.  In an OBP league, the two are incredibly close, but I’d give a slight edge to Votto.
• We all know that Adam Dunn is a tremendous player once you take his average out of play.  If he could hit .270 then he would be ranked even higher, but the potential for a low average does also affect his OBP.  The power is as good as anyone’s, and when you look at OBP, he’s got to be considered a top option.
• Like Dunn, Carlos Pena gets a boost in value thanks to the inclusion of OBP but do not push him up the rankings quite as much.  If you knew he was going to hit close to 40 HR, things may be different, but having years of 31 and 29 in two of the past three years puts a red flag over him.  He has the potential to be a great option, but it’s tough to depend on him on draft day.
• Kendry Morales’ potential value falls in a league like this (he was ranked No. 9 in our standard rankings).  He has a career walk rate of 6.9 percent, including marks of 7.4 percent and 5.7 percent over the past two years when he truly broke out.  Compare that to Paul Konerko (11.4 percent in ’10), who has the same type of power potential. 
• You may be tempted to push Gaby Sanchez up your rankings but be cautious.  He certainly didn’t show an elite walk rate in the major leagues in 2010 (8.9 percent), and his minor league mark (12.3 percent) isn’t much different than Ike Davis’ (11.6 percent).  Yes, Sanchez’ numbers is based on a bigger sample size, but Davis brings significantly more power potential.  Both players just miss the top 15, but I would still rather have Davis if you are in a deeper format.
• Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira flip spots in the rankings due the inclusion of OBP.  Both are elite options, but with walk rates of 15.3 percent and 16.0 percent, Fielder gets a slight edge, especially since both players have the potential to go .295/35/100/100 or better.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Catcher is a position that many people dispute about how to draft.  Should you go with one of the elite options early in your draft?  Should you focus on a mid-round talent?  How about waiting until the late rounds to fill the spot? 

Exactly how to go about drafting your catchers is a question for another day, but let’s take a look at how I currently have them ranked:

1. Joe Mauer: Minnesota Twins
2. Victor Martinez: Detroit Tigers
3. Brian McCann: Atlanta Braves
4. Buster Posey: San Francisco Giants
5. Carlos Santana: Cleveland Indians
6. Miguel Montero: Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Kurt Suzuki: Oakland Athletics
8. Matt Wieters: Baltimore Orioles
9. Geovany Soto: Chicago Cubs
10. Mike Napoli: Texas Rangers
11. Jorge Posada: New York Yankees
12. Chris Iannetta: Colorado Rockies
13. J.P. Arencibia: Toronto Blue Jays
14. Yadier Molina: St. Louis Cardinals
15. Miguel Olivo: Seattle Mariners

Thoughts:

• I mentioned Buster Posey on Monday when I discussed my Top 15 catchers by tiers (click here to view), and then went into much more detail on him (click here to view), so I am not going to go into such great detail again here.  The bottom line is that we need to temper our expectations from the sophomore star.  That’s not to say that he is not going to be among the best catchers in the league, but let’s make sure he can back up his 2010 success before we put him ahead of the established stars.
• Those hoping to grab J.P. Arencibia nearly had their hearts broken when the Blue Jays acquired Mike Napoli, only to see the team flip him to Texas just days later.  There are certainly going to be concerns about his ability to make contact, which could lead to a poor average.  That being said, how many lower tier catchers actually hit for a big average?  He brings plenty of power potential and should get an opportunity.  That gives him significant value, especially in two-catcher formats.
• Speaking of Napoli, has he again found himself in a situation where he is not going to get regular at bats?  It seems almost impossible to think about, but it certainly is a bit of a concern.  With Mitch Moreland spending time at 1B, as well as Michael Young getting AB at first and designated hitter, he still may not get as many at bats as we’d like him to.  You would think he’d see a lot of time behind the plate, but Yorvit Torrealba certainly will get some time as well.
• Geovany Soto is a player who has the potential to far exceed his ranking here, if he can stay healthy and maintain regular at bats.  The past two years have seen him get 331 and 322 AB, respectively, for various reasons.  That has to be a concern, as does if he can maintain his 24.4% line drive rate (would have qualified him for third in the league) or his 17.7% HR/FB rate.  A regression in those marks will lead to a fall overall, so keep that in mind.
• I’ve posted my projections for Matt Wieters (click here to view) and Kurt Suzuki (click here to view) so make sure to check them out.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com