Kuzul

Let’s take a look at a few tidbits regarding some of the top prospects in the game:

• Brett Lawrie, who is attending his first Major League Spring Training camp, is being asked to transition to 3B according to Gregor Chisholm of mlb.com (click here for the article).  The article goes on to say that he is expected to open the year at Triple-A, with Jose Bautista starting the year at 3B.  However, it is not hard to imagine the Blue Jays shifting Bautista to the outfield to make room for Lawrie at some point in 2011.  For the Brewers Double-A team in 2010 Lawrie hit .285 with 8 HR, 63 RBI, 90 R and 30 SB in 554 AB.  He should be on the radar of all fantasy owners.
• According to mlb.com (click here for the article), “Young slugger Mark Trumbo could thrust himself into the picture for the Angels with a strong spring, Angels manager Mike Scioscia said on Sunday in his daily session with the media.”  The idea is to give him time both at 1B and in the OF.  At Triple-A in ’10 he hit .307 with 36 HR and 122 RBI in 532 AB.  Yes, it was in the Pacifica Coast League, but those are numbers we just can’t ignore.  It’s hard to imagine him gaining regular at bats given the team’s outfielders and Kendry Morales returning to 1B, but you should definitely keep an eye on him.
• Jordan Bastian of mlb.com (via Twitter) quoted manager Manny Acta saying “Alex White is not competing for our rotation.”  White split time between Single & Double-A in 2010, going 10-10 with a 2.45 ERA and 117 K over 150.2 innings.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him reach the Majors at some point in 2011, just not right out of the gate apparently.
• On mlb.com (click here for the article), Bastian notes that “Cabrera was brought in to provide veteran leadership, yes, but also to serve as a kind of stopgap at a position filled with uncertainty prior to his arrival. Later this season, if the Indians feel it is best for the team, you might see a prospect like Cord Phelps or Jason Kipnis handed the big league job. In that scenario, Cabrera could easily move into a utility role off the bench. Another scenario could have Cabrera shifted to third base if the other options are not working out (don’t expect third-base prospect Lonnie Chisenhall to be rushed to the Majors). Or, if heaven forbid something happens to shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, Orlando could move to short.”  Don’t downgrade Kipnis too far due to the Cabrera signing.
• The Royals will consider moving 2010 first round pick, Christian Colon, to second base in the future, though it is all dependent on the production of newly acquired Alcides Escobar.  Assistant General Manager J.J. Picollo was quoted by Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star (click here for the article) as saying, “If the time comes when we have to move him to second base because Escobar is doing a great job, and we believe in Colon’s bat, we think the transition for him to second base will be easy.”  There’s a chance that Colon gets his first taste at 2B in ’11, but he will open the year at SS.  He’s a player worth being on radars, but he isn’t likely to reach the Majors in ’11.

What are your thoughts on this news?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:

• Ackley, Dustin
• Archer, Chris
• Britton, Zach
• Chisenhall, Lonnie
• Cousins, Scott
• d’Arnaud, Chase
• Iglesias, Jose
• Kipnis, Jason
• Lawrie, Brett
• Mesoraco, Devin
• Pineda, Michael
• Ramos, Wilson
• Revere, Ben
• Taylor, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Tier 1 – Joe Mauer
Mauer stands alone as the best catcher available on draft day.  While his 2009 power surge was clearly more smoke and mirrors than anything else (28 HR in ’09 compared to a career high of 13 in ’06 and no other season of more than 9), he brings more than enough to the table to excite owners.  He is one of the few catchers who brings run potential to the table.  In fact, in the past four years he has scored 342 runs.  Second place among catchers is Russell Martin with 282 (and third place is Victor Martinez with 260).  Throw in a perennial .325+ average and 85+ RBI potential and it is clear that there is no one else in his class.

Tier 2 – Victor Martinez, Brian McCann
These guys have both proven what they are capable of doing and are among the better hitters in the game, but they still remain a cut below the top gun.  They bring a little bit more power to the table, but may not have the upside in the other categories. 

Martinez, however, is going to be an interesting player to watch while working as a DH in Detroit.  Those extra at bats will certainly help to offset any decrease his production may take from moving away from Fenway.  Throw in joining Miguel Cabrera in the lineup and he certainly has the potential to put up some big numbers in 2011.

Tier 3 – Buster Posey, Carlos Santana
I know people want to believe that Posey belongs in Tier 2 (or maybe even Tier 1), but there are some huge risks involved in taking him early on in your draft.  I’m going to post an article on him later on this week (so check back for that), but an increased strikeout rate along with his struggles at home could help him to regress a bit in his sophomore campaign. 

Santana, meanwhile, is trying to come back from a serious knee injury.  While I’ve dubbed him the next Victor Martinez, he’s not there yet, which is why I would put him in this tier.  Both of these players have the chance to be among the elite, but they need to back it up on the field in 2011.

Tier 4 – Miguel Montero, Kurt Suzuki, Matt Wieters, Geovany Soto
This is probably the tier that most people are aiming to dip their toes into.  All of these players have significant upside and come at a far greater value than the first three tiers (outside of maybe Carlos Santana who is actually being drafted after half of this tier according to Mock Draft Central). 

Soto rebounded nicely from a tough 2009 (.280, 17 HR in 322 AB) and hopefully will get significantly more playing time in 2011. 

Wieters has not yet lived up to the hype, but with a significant upgrade in talent around him there certainly is the hope that he takes the next step forward.  Montero has proven that, when healthy, he is a very good catching talent. 

Suzuki, meanwhile, is similar to Wieters where he has a ton of talent but now he needs to put it together on the field. 

These guys are all available between rounds nine and 16, where they bring great value compared to the top three tiers.

Tier 5 – Mike Napoli, Jorge Posada, Chris Iannetta
The next grouping has power potential across the board, but red flags abound. 

Napoli finds himself in a good situation, but he is going to be shifted around the diamond in Texas and could continue to struggle to find AB.  He’s going to catch some, as well as share time at 1B and DH with Michael Young and Mitch Moreland.  Of course, he also could struggle in the average department. 

Posada, at his age, is always a risk to suffer an injury.  While DH’ing should help, you just never know. 

Iannetta has a ton of upside potential, but will this finally be the year that the Rockies actually show patience and stick with him?

Tier 6 – J.P. Arencibia, Yadier Molina, Miguel Olivo
From a fantasy perspective there is a big falloff in talent at this point in the rankings.  Arencibia certainly has a ton of potential, given his Triple-A numbers from 2010, and is a great selection especially in two-catcher formats.

What are your thoughts on the tiers?  How would you group them?  Is there anyone that you think doesn’t belong in the group that I’ve placed them?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Justin Upton is one of the brightest young stars in baseball—at least, that’s what we are supposed to believe. 

We all know he has the talent, as we’ve seen it at times, but given what he’s shown recently, should we be rolling the dice on him in the late third or early fourth round of fantasy drafts (since his current ADP, according to Mock Draft Central. is 40.27)?

Obviously, if you are in a keeper league, this discussion is completely void. In a league where you are looking not just at 2011, but beyond, there are few players that you would probably rather have than Upton. 

Keep that in mind as you read on.

First, let’s take a look at Upton’s 2010 production:

495 At Bats
.273 Batting Average (135 Hits)
17 Home Runs
69 RBI
73 Runs
18 Stolen Bases
.356 On Base Percentage
.442 Slugging Percentage
.354 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Those numbers paled in comparison to his 2009 campaign when he hit .300 with 26 HR and 20 SB. He was supposed to turn the corner in 2010 and take the next step in his development; instead, he regressed significantly.

Yet, owners are still valuing him like he lived up to expectations.

One of the major concerns is his strikeout rate, which took a significant step backwards:

• 2008 – 34.0% (356 AB)
• 2009 – 26.0% (526 AB)
• 2010 – 30.7% (495 AB)

Yes, you could argue that he turned the corner in that regard as the season progressed (25.8% in July, 24.8% in August) but the threat is still there. The idea that he could post such a high strikeout rate makes it hard to expect him to hit .300. Obviously, if he could maintain his mid-season success (as he did in 2009), it is possible. 

The upside is there, but is it something that is a guarantee?

He has power potential, but what exactly has he shown to make us think that he’s going to suddenly become a 30+ HR threat in 2011? His HR/FB fell significantly in ’10, going from 18.8% to 12.4%. 

So, which is it? It’s likely that he is somewhere in the middle, but at this point does anyone really know for sure?

Who is to say that he is more likely to return to his ’09 power as opposed to repeat his ’10 struggles? Yes, we all know the potential, but he is still just 23 years old. There just is not guarantee.

The speed is solid, but he’s not a 30 SB threat. That is something that he has proven, with 38 total stolen bases over the past two years. Yes, it is a solid number, but how much better is it than other options?

Just look at Hunter Pence’s 2010 numbers, who has a current ADP of 84.53:

.282, 25 HR, 91 RBI, 93 R, 18 SB

He outperformed Upton basically across the board, yet Upton’s hype and potential cause him to be drafted nearly 50 spots higher? 

Honestly, it doesn’t make any sense.

Pence has proven to be a consistent performer year in and year out. He is going to be a 25 HR hitter.  He is going to hit around .280. He is going to steal between 15 and 20 bases. Plus, now that he is likely the full-time No. 3 hitter for the Astros, there is a good chance that he goes 90/90 once again.

Could Upton outperform those numbers? Absolutely. He has that “potential.” However, he showed in 2010 that he also still has a long way to go and has not yet fully realized what he can and cannot achieve on the diamond.

Of course, you also have the concerns regarding his shoulder injury that plagued him in 2010. It cost him time in September and maybe did contribute to his overall struggles. 

Are you willing to bet on it, though?

Potential is tremendous, but when you are drafting for one season is it really something you want to gamble on that early? It certainly isn’t for me, especially when I can get similar, if not better, production four rounds later.

What about you? Is Upton someone you would in the fourth round of yearly leagues?  Why or why not?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Clint Barmes has been involved in the Rockies‘ rotating door at second base for the past few seasons. He’s had the opportunity to claim it as his own on many occasions, but after his 2005 breakout campaign (.289, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 55 R in 350 AB) was cut short due to a freak injury, he never quite regained his form.

Yes, he did hit 23 HR in 2009, but it came courtesy of a .245 average. Now, having been traded to the Astros in the offseason in exchange for Felipe Paulino, Barmes has a chance to rebuild his value for fantasy owners.

Still, he’s coming off a subpar season:

387 At Bats
.235 Batting Average (91 Hits)
8 Home Runs
50 RBI
43 Runs
3 Stolen Bases
.305 On Base Percentage
.351 Slugging Percentage
.263 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The average continued to struggle thanks to a below average BABIP. Over the past two years he’s posted a BABIP of .271 and .263. That’s the only reason that his average struggled, because he didn’t strikeout an exorbitant amount of the time (17.1 percent in ’10 vs. 17.3 percent for his career).

It’s easy to say that he should post a luckier number at some point, but an inflated fly ball rate doesn’t make that a certainty. He has a career fly ball rate of 47.7 percent, but he’s been above that each of the past three seasons:

• 2008 – 48.9 percent
• 2009 – 49.0 percent
• 2010 – 48.9 percent

Inflated fly ball rates don’t lend themselves to tremendous luck. While it helps us to believe that his power is likely to rebound, especially in Minute Maid Park, from an average standpoint, it’s not a good thing.

The problem is, is the power really a lock? Yes, he hit 23 HR in ’09, but it came courtesy of an 11.0 percent HR/FB. For his career he’s at 6.8 percent and ’09 was actually the only season that he posted a mark above 7.7 percent. Assuming he’s going to hit 20+ HR would be a major mistake.

It all combines for a projection of:

.260 (117-450), 14 HR, 60 RBI, 60 R, 8 SB, .288 BABIP, .316 OBP, .420 SLG

Those are fine numbers, but they make him nothing more than a low-level middle infielder. There’s way too much risk involved in his average and no guarantee that his power comes anywhere close to his ’09 explosion. There’s nothing there to hang your hat on.

But what are your thoughts on Barmes? Is he a player you would target in ’11?  Why or why not?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Outfield is one of the toughest positions to rank.  At the top, things are not as deep as we would like, but we are flooded with youngsters who have the potential to join the group of elite options. 

Can someone like Hunter Pence or Jay Bruce take that next step forward?  Can Mike Stanton or Jason Heyward live up to the hype? 

Will Jason Bay, Nick Markakis and Ben Zobrist rebound from disappointing 2010 campaigns?

Let’s take a look at how these questions and all the rest factor into our updated rankings:

1. Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers
2. Carlos Gonzalez – Colorado Rockies
3. Carl Crawford – Boston Red Sox
4. Matt Holliday – St. Louis Cardinals
5. Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Angels
6. Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers
7. Alex Rios – Chicago White Sox
8. Andre Ethier – Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates
10. Hunter Pence – Houston Astros
11. Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds
12. Shin-Soo Choo – Cleveland Indians
13. Jason Heyward – Atlanta Braves
14. Nelson Cruz – Texas Rangers
15. Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks
16. Mike Stanton – Florida Marlins
17. Colby Rasmus – St. Louis Cardinals
18. Jose Bautista – Toronto Blue Jays
19. Jayson Werth – Washington Nationals
20. Jacoby Ellsbury – Boston Red Sox
21. Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners
22. Curtis Granderson – New York Yankees
23. Chris Young – Arizona Diamondbacks
24. Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies
25. B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays
26. Jason Bay – New York Mets
27. Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles
28. Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
29. Delmon Young – Minnesota Twins
30. Carlos Quentin – Chicago White Sox

Thoughts:

• Andrew McCutchen is a player who has the potential to be one of the elite outfielders in the game.  I know there is a stigma against him, playing for the Pirates and all, but do not let it skew your impression.  There’s a good chance that he moves to the third hole giving him the opportunity to drive in more runs than he did in ’10 (56 RBI).  As I’ve said before, he has the potential to be a .300/20/85/85/30 player in 2011.  Is that something you are going to complain about?  For more on McCutchen, make sure to check my previous article on him by clicking here. 
• While Carlos Gonzalez may not be able to replicate a .384 BABIP, he still brings 30/100/100/30 potential.  What exactly is there not to like about that?  He’s a Top 10 overall option and a great pick in all formats.
• I know there are people who think extremely highly of Josh Hamilton, but I don’t see him as a Top 5 outfielder.  The risk of injury is always going to hang over him, and he also benefited from an unrealistic .390 BABIP.  He’s an extremely good option, but I would keep your expectations in check.  For more on Hamilton and why I don’t see him as a first-round option, click here. 
• With Jayson Werth’s move to Washington his value has to take a bit of a hit.  Of his 87 home runs over the past three years, 50 of them have come at Citizens Bank Ballpark.  You also have to consider the fact that the supporting cast around him is just not going to be what it was in Philadelphia.  You also can’t expect him to replicate a .296 average (.352 BABIP), as he is a career .272 hitter.  All in all he’s a nice player, but someone that should be viewed as an OF2.
• There certainly is a risk hovering over Jason Bay given his injuries and inabilities in 2010, but I wouldn’t shy away from him.  He has as much upside as anyone and, assuming he can fully come back from his 2010 concussions, he should reemerge as a solid option.  I’ve already stated that he has the potential to produce similar numbers to Hunter Pence, yet at least seven rounds later.  For more on this comparison, click here. 
• Not a believer in Mike Stanton as a Top 20 outfielder?  He has already proven that he has Major League power by hitting 22 HR in 396 AB in ’10.  I know the strikeouts are concerning, but he clearly has the makings of being Adam Dunn v2.0.  Is there anyone who would complain about that?  He’s certainly worth grabbing, especially considering how many players actually have the potential to hit 40 HR at this point.
• Does anyone really expect Jose Bautista to replicate his 2010 performance?  Just keep that in mind.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Traded as part of the deal that sent Dan Uggla to Atlanta, Omar Infante is a player who brings some intrigue to fantasy owners for 2011.

For owners in most formats, he will have eligibility at 2B, 3B and OF (in formats that require less than 20 games, he will also have SS eligibility), which instantly adds to his appeal. 

However, does he bring enough to the table offensively to make him a worthwhile choice?

Let’s take a look at his 2010 offensive production for the Atlanta Braves:

471 AB, .321 BA (151 hits), 8 HR, 47 RBI, 65 RS, 7 SB, .359 OBP, .416 SLG, .355 BABIP.

Right off the bat, it is obvious that Infante brings no power and no speed to the table, so that is a major knock against him. 

Is there enough in the other categories to offset that?  Honestly, I’m not so sure.

We know he’s not going to generate a significant number of RBI, regardless of where he hits in the order.  In 2010, he had 26 extra base hits, the second-highest total he’s posted in the past five years (he had 30 in ’08). 

There’s just no reason to think anything significant is going to change.

The average was nice, but can we really anticipate him maintaining that type of BABIP?  For his career, Infante has a .313 BABIP, though he has been between .316 and .355 since 2006. 

If all else remained equal and his BABIP fell to .324 in ’10, his average would have dropped to .293. 

That seems like a lot more realistic of a mark.

Obviously, he needs to be a lock to hit over .300 to help offset his lack of power and speed.  Unfortunately, Infante is far from it.

Maybe he can score a few runs hitting second in the Marlins’ order, with Hanley Ramirez and company waiting behind him, but that is far from enough to overlook his other negatives. 

His OBP just isn’t enough to make us think he’ll approach 100 runs scored.  In fact, it’s no guarantee he surpasses 90.

Infante is a nice player for those in deeper formats, considering the position flexibility he brings to the table.  As someone that you may plug in for a few days at a time, or maybe a week or two tops, he’s not going to hurt you. 

Unfortunately, it doesn’t feel like he is going to help you, either. 

There are certainly other options I’d rather focus on, especially for those in deeper formats.

What about you?  Is Infante someone you wouldn’t mind drafting?  If so, what is it about his play that you like?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It was a magical season for Tim Hudson, who had pitched just 42.1 innings in 2009 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2008.  His numbers were fine in that span (3.61 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), but no one knew exactly what to expect in his first full year back.  Hudson performed better than anyone could’ve expected, posting the following line:

17 Wins
228.2 Innings
2.83 ERA
1.15 WHIP
139 Strikeouts (5.47 K/9)
74 Walks (2.91 BB/9)
.250 BABIP

The question for fantasy owners is if he has any chance of replicating the numbers?  The first big strike against him is his strikeout rate.  He has a career K/9 of 6.06 and the only time he has actually been above 5.81 since 2003 was in ’09 when he posted a 6.38 K/9.  Of course, that was over a minimal sample size so it can be taken with a grain of salt.

Without the strikeout rate, there’s a big risk that the other numbers come tumbling down as well.  His BABIP is unbelievable.  He has a career rate of .286 and routinely posted a mark between .290 and .307 prior to the injury. 

Yes, he has always had great control which he was almost able to replicate despite missing significant time (2.91 BB/9 vs. 2.78 for his career).  However, a regression in BABIP is going to mean a big fall in his WHIP.  For his career he has posted a 1.25 WHIP and seeing him perform significantly worse than that would not be surprising.

As for the ERA, he benefitted from an 81.2 percent strand rate.  For his career he is at 74.2 percent.  In 2010, he was one of only two pitchers who qualified for the ERA title to post a strand rate better than 80 percent (the other two were Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay).  It should be a foregone conclusion that he is going to regress there as well.

You put it all together and get the following projection:

200.0 IP, 15 W, 3.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 120 K (5.40 K/9), 63 BB (2.84 BB/9)

Those are fine numbers overall, but without the strikeouts he becomes a barely passable pitcher for fantasy owners.  Unless he is going to post an elite ERA or WHIP (or both), those in shallower formats can basically forget about him without the strikeout rate.  Considering, from his track record, we know that’s not going to happen, it’s easy to ignore Hudson on draft day.

What are your thoughts on Hudson?  Is he someone that is usable?  How do you think he’s going to produce?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

When 2010 came to an end it appeared that Garrett Jones would open the 2011 season as the Pirates starting first baseman.  Given the options on the roster, it was a fair assessment, but the Pirates have not stood pat.  They have signed a pair of players this offseason who can man first base and potentially appear headed for a timeshare:

Lyle Overbay
The left-handed hitter enjoyed a renaissance of sorts in 2010, hitting 20 HR with 67 RBI and 75 R in 534 AB.  However, hitting for power as part of the Blue Jays lineup really was nothing special in ’10, nor was his total actually overly impressive.  He’s never hit more than 22 HR in a season, so if it is punch that the Pirates were looking for, Overbay certainly isn’t the answer.

Many people may want to think of him as a good average hitter, but since hitting .312 in 2006 he’s posted the following marks:

• 2007 – .240 (.271 BABIP)
• 2008 – .270 (.316 BABIP)
• 2009 – .265 (.305 BABIP)
• 2010 – .243 (.285 BABIP)

In those four seasons he watched his strikeout rate go from 18.4% in ’07 to 24.5% last season.  Once again, there really is just nothing to get excited about.  Throw in that he has failed to surpass 75 R or RBI in the past four seasons and you have to wonder exactly how Overbay fits into their plans offensively.  He does little to strengthen a lineup that desperately needs a boost.

Garrett Atkins
He was once a vaunted source of power, but Atkins simply hasn’t been the same player the past few years.  A right-handed hitter, it has been a steady decline since slugging 29 HR in 2006.  In fact, he failed to stick with the Orioles in 2010, hitting just .214 with 1 HR and 9 RBI in 140 AB.

It’s nice that he doesn’t strikeout much (2010 was the first time he was above 16.4% since 2004) and maybe he can regain a decent stroke and hit for a good average.  I’m not talking over .300, because when he did that he was swinging with power, but maybe in the .270-.280 range.  Solid production for sure, but nothing to brag about.

Conclusion
Atkins was a much lower risk financially.  He signed a minor league contract that, if he makes the major league team, will pay him just $800,000.  Overbay, meanwhile, was handed a one-year, $5 million contract.

From a fantasy perspective you really can’t expect to get much out of either one, especially if they do split time.  Watch them on the waiver wire and if they look decent, then strike.

I have to believe that the Pirates are hoping one of them proves worthy enough that they can trade them towards the deadline for prospects that actually fit into their long-term plans.  They did it well with Octavio Dotel in 2010, so why not try again?  With Atkins the contract is perfect for that type of gamble.  For Overbay?  I’m not quite so sure.

Regardless of the Pirates plans, this is a situation that should be avoided.

What are your thoughts?  Who do you think will get the bulk of the playing time?  Will either prove usable in 2011?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

A late round first base option? Is that really necessary?

Well, for those in deeper leagues, or for those who want to wait and take advantage of the depth of the position, it certainly is.

Let’s take a look at a few of the options that should be available after Round 18.

Ike Davis, New York Mets

Davis opened 2010 at Triple-A, but when an injury to Daniel Murphy opened the door, he never relinquished the opportunity. He finished the year hitting .264 with 18 HR, 71 RBI and 73 R in 523 AB.

While he spent significant time hitting fourth (.262, 11 HR, 40 RBI in 229 AB) and fifth (.256, 3 HR, 15 RBI in 156 AB), that isn’t likely going to be the case in 2011. The return to health of Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay will ticket Davis for the sixth spot in the lineup, but that should still offer significant RBI opportunities.

While Citi Field scares many people off, Davis showed that he has the power to hit the ball out of any ballpark. Of his 19 HR, eight of them came at home. He also posted a modest 12.0 percent HR/FB rate, meaning that, at just 24 years old, the potential is there for him to continue to develop his power stroke. While it shouldn’t be expected to see him jump into the 30 HR range, approaching 25 over a full season is likely.

He also has the potential to improve on his average. While the BABIP (.321) is realistic, seeing him improve on his 26.4 percent strikeout rate would not be surprising. A decrease there should mean an improved average.

Davis should be viewed as a hitter that easily could hit .275 with 20-24 HR and 80-plus RBI. While that may not be an ideal first baseman, would anyone shy away from those numbers from a corner infielder? Not to mention he has the potential to significantly outproduce them.

Davis’ current ADP is around 260 according to Mock Draft Central.

Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins

He took over as the Marlins’ regular first baseman in 2010 and responded by hitting .273 with 19 HR, 85 RBI and 72 R over 572 AB. He showed an impressive contact rate (17.7 percent) and easily brings the potential for a significantly better average (.299 BABIP).

The problem with Sanchez is that, at 27 years old, can we really anticipate a significant boost in the power production? Over 1,753 minor league at-bats he hit just 62 HR. In the Pacific Coast League in 2009 he hit just 16 HR over 318 AB. Unfortunately, that is one major knock against his potential.

Still, with the average upside and a spot in the middle of the Marlins lineup, he should have plenty of opportunities to produce. Think .280-plus average with low-20s home run potential. Those are fine numbers when you will be able to draft him.

Sanchez’ current ADP is about 232 according to Mock Draft Central.

Matt LaPorta, Cleveland Indians

I discussed him recently as part of a Wild Prediction, saying that he would hit at least 30 HR in 2011 (click here to view). While that type of number may be a bit of a stretch, we should be in store for improved production from LaPorta.

The 2007 first-round draft pick has shown power in the past, hitting 20 HR in 302 AB at Double-A in 2008, though injuries and adjustment appear to have slowed his progress. In 376 AB for the Indians in 2010 he hit .221 with 12 HR and 41 RBI.

Of course, we cannot overlook his .250 BABIP. Yes, he may have been trying a little too hard to hit home runs (45.3 percent fly-ball rate), but with a full-time job his entering 2011, one has to think that he might not press quite as hard. He has experience, and this easily could be the year that he puts it all together.

Is he worth a high round draft choice? Absolutely not, but in the later rounds he certainly is worth the flier given his tremendous upside.

LaPorta’s ADP is currently around 396 according to Mock Draft Central.

What are your thoughts on these three players? Which would you target at the tail end of your draft? Is there another option that you are eyeing?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our previous late round articles:

• Catchers
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen

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If we were discussing Aramis Ramirez three years ago, things may be a little bit different.  From 2004-2006, he averaged 35 HR a year.

He followed that up with years of 26 and 27 HR (though he had over 100 RBI in each of those seasons).  He was considered one of the better options at third base, and rightfully so.

The past two years, however, have dramatically changed our opinion of him.  He’s missed time in both 2009 and 2010 thanks to a dislocated shoulder and bruised thumb.

If that were the only problem, then maybe he wouldn’t have fallen so far.  However, his 2010 campaign was not very impressive overall:

465 At Bats
.241 Batting Average (112 Hits)
25 Home Runs
83 RBI
61 Runs
0 Stolen Bases
.294 On Base Percentage
.452 Slugging Percentage
.245 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Obviously the average was bad, but there are two clear-cut reasons for it.  First of all, his BABIP, which has to jump out at you.  That’s a tremendously unlucky number on the surface, though there is a little bit more behind it.

Since 2002, Ramirez has posted a fly ball rate of 45.7%.  In 2010 his mark was at 56.8%.  If that wasn’t enough, he had just one previous season higher than 46.7% (48.3% in ’08). 

There is a lot less “luck” involved in fly balls, so while the BABIP may seem unlucky on the surface, given the fly ball rate, it shouldn’t be a huge surprise.

Then again, you have to think that his fly ball rate is going to decline back towards his career rate.  He has too long of a history of being in the mid-40s to think that last year’s number is believable.

It is possible that he was trying to hit more home runs in order to prove that his shoulder injury was not a concern.  Maybe there is another excuse. 

Whatever the answer, I would look for him to correct it prior to the 2011 season.

The other concern with his average was his strikeout rate.  He has a career strikeout rate of 15.5%, though he posted a 19.4% mark in 2010.  Again, given his career history, you have to expect him to correct the problem prior to 2011.

He’s a .282 career hitter, though he had been above that mark every season since 2004:

• 2004 – .318
• 2005 – .302
• 2006 – .291
• 2007 – .310
• 2008 – .289
• 2009 – .317

Are we supposed to believe that he simply forgot how to hit?  He’s more than a year removed from the shoulder problem, so it is safe to think that it is not going to be a lingering issue. 

You wouldn’t expect him to get back to his mid-to-high 30 HR days, but once again coming in between 25-30, even with an expected drop in fly ball rate, is fair.

Couple the power and the expected average rebound with hitting in the middle of the Cubs order and there is a lot to like.  We all know what type of potential he has, and at 32 years old, it is fair to assume that he hasn’t simply lost his skill. 

Third base is an extremely weak position, and getting him around Round 9 or 10 is certainly worth the gamble if you miss out on the top options.  Just look at the other options that are going after him (on average according to Mock Draft Central):

• Casey McGehee
• Ian Stewart
• Mark Reynolds
• Pablo Sandoval

Outside of Sandoval (maybe), is there anyone that you would trust more? 

What are your thoughts of Ramirez?  Is he a player you wouldn’t mind owning as your 3B?  Why or why not?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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