Kuzul

There is little doubt when someone says that Andrew McCutchen is among the best outfielders in baseball, is there? The question is, at 24 years old, exactly how do we compare him to the rest of the field? Do we rank him based on what he has shown in the past or what we think the future holds (and realize that he could fulfill his potential as soon as 2011)?

By checking out my Top 30 Outfielder Rankings, you know where I fall on the discussion. To me, he already is a top-10 outfielder. Before we get into exactly what I think we can expect from him in 2011, let’s look at what he did in 2010:

570 At-Bats
.286 Batting Average (163 Hits)
16 Home Runs
56 RBI
94 Runs
33 Stolen Bases
.365 On Base Percentage
.449 Slugging Percentage
.311 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Those are very good numbers for his first full professional season and McCutchen certainly has the potential to grow on them. First of all, you have to like the improvement he showed in making contact from his first Major League experience (433 AB in ’09) to last season:

2009 – 19.2 percent strikeout rate
2010 – 15.6 percent strikeout rate

That is the type of improvement you love to see from a young player and certainly gives us hope that he can improve on his average in 2011. Of course, there are numerous other factors that come into play when we discuss average, and all look promising.

First the walk rate, as he has a 10.8 percent mark over his first 1,003 Major League at-bats. When you couple that with his improved strikeout rate, you really get the feeling that the youngster is learning how to command the strike zone.

Next the BABIP, which was an extremely believable number. However, with his speed he certainly has the ability to maintain a much higher mark. Just as a comparison, here are a few speedsters BABIP from 2010:

Ichiro Suzuki – .353
Brett Gardner – .340
Scott Podsednik – .338
Michael Bourn – .329

McCutchen does not put an excessive amount of balls in the air (37.8 percent), so with his wheels it is not unreasonable to see his BABIP increase, potentially substantially. With more luck, McCutchen could easily see his average approach or exceed .300, certainly something that would please fantasy owners.

You also have to think that as he gains experience and strength, he could increase his home run totals. I’m not about to say that he could become a 30 HR threat, but seeing him reach 20 would not be surprising in the least. He had 35 doubles and 5 triples in 2010, so seeing a few more of those find their way over the fence is all it will take.

The RBI and R from 2010 were based on hitting leadoff, but with Jose Tabata on the roster would it surprise anyone if the Pirates shift McCutchen down to the third hole? Yes, that would likely mean a few less runs scored, but significantly more RBI.

If that were to happen, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to think that he could pick up at least 85 R and 85 RBI, making him a lot more valuable than someone who is going to score 95 and only drive in 50.

I also don’t think the shift in the lineup spot would hurt his ability to steal bases either.  The Pirates are not a high-powered offense and are going to need to manufacture runs any way they can. That means using their speed, no matter where it is in the lineup.

The bottom line is that we are talking about a player who easily could become a .300/20/85/85/30 player in 2011. In fact, he has the ability to outperform those numbers. How many players in baseball can you say that about?

McCutchen has an ADP of around 50, according to Mock Draft Central. In the early fifth round, to get a player who can help you across the board is a win/win scenario.  I wouldn’t hesitate to make that selection every single time.

What about you?  Is McCutchen a player you would select that early in your draft?  How do you think he can perform in 2011?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

Buchholz, Clay
Butler, Billy
Choo, Shin-Soo
Ethier, Andre
Freese, David
Hughes, Phil
Jaso, John
Johnson, Chris
Morrow, Brandon
Uggla, Dan
Reyes, Jose
Suzuki, Kurt
Wieters, Matt
Willingham, Josh
Young, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Second base is a position that has numerous youngsters who could make their presence felt as soon as 2011.  Jason Kipnis, Dustin Ackley and Brett Lawrie could all eventually join the elite at the position, but first they need to make their MLB debuts.  How should they be ranked by fantasy owners in keeper leagues?  Let’s take a look:

1. Robinson Cano – New York Yankees
2. Dustin Pedroia – Boston Red Sox
3. Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies
4. Ian Kinsler – Texas Rangers
5. Dan Uggla – Atlanta Braves
6. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds
7. Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
8. Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers
9. Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox
10. Aaron Hill – Toronto Blue Jays
11. Kelly Johnson – Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Danny Espinosa – Washington Nationals
13. Jason Kipnis – Cleveland Indians
14. Dustin Ackley – Seattle Mariners
15. Brett Lawrie – Toronto Blue Jays

Thoughts:

• Dustin Pedroia over Chase Utley?  I know it may seem a bit odd, but Pedroia is five years younger than Utley, who many people believe could be on the decline.  It’s hard to read too much into his 2010 struggles (.275, 16 HR, 65 RBI in 425 AB) as they easily could have been due to hip problems.  Of course, Pedroia and Ian Kinsler also have had injury concerns, but at his age you have to wonder how long Utley will be able to hold up.  His tremendous upside keeps him in the top three, but there is cause for concern.
• Martin Prado belongs on this list, but with Dan Uggla in town now it appears unlikely that he maintains 2B eligibility after 2011.  If you draft him keep in mind that he could regain the eligibility down the line at some point, but it’s hard to depend on it.
• Looking for Brian Roberts?  Considering his recent decline and age (33 years old), he falls just short for me.
• Unlike many other positions, there is a potential influx of talent coming to 2B.  We got a taste of what Danny Espinosa can bring to the table in 2010, and he is just the tip of the iceberg.  Jason Kipnis, Dustin Ackley and Brett Lawrie are a few of the names who could make their presence felt as soon as 2011 (though you don’t want to be drafting them as your starting option).  I may be in the minority, but I love the potential that Kipnis brings to the table.  Between Double- and Triple-A in 2010 he had 32 doubles, eight triples and 16 HR to go along with a .307 average and nine SB.  He has the potential to overtake Jason Donald quickly and brings tremendous upside.
• At this point Howie Kendrick has become a tremendous disappointment for fantasy owners.  Since he really doesn’t bring power or speed to the table, I ultimately decided to drop him out of the top 15.  At this point, I’d rather the upside of one of the up-and-coming options over a disappointing player we already know.
• Will Gordon Beckham finally realize his potential?  You have to love the power he could bring to the table from a position that you can’t always find it.

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First-Round Breakdown

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It wasn’t long ago that Jimmy Rollins was in the discussion regarding the elite shortstops in the league. 

What a difference a few seasons can make.

Obviously, we all know that Rollins is no slouch, especially at a position that is not one of the deepest in baseball. In our most recent rankings (click here to view), I ranked him fifth, but the real question is if that is a viable spot for him? 

Should he be ranked a little bit higher? Should I back him down a couple of spots?

To answer those questions, we first need to look at the numbers he posted in 2010:

350 At Bats
.243 Batting Average (85 Hits)
8 Home Runs
41 RBI
48 Runs
17 Stolen Bases
.320 On Base Percentage
.374 Slugging Percentage
.246 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Rollins’ 2010 campaign was marred by starts and stops with only two months (July & August) with at least 100 AB. Injuries to his calf and hamstring cost him time, both of which are concerning, considering his legs are the key to his fantasy value.

I know he hit 30 HR in 2007, but he had never really shown that potential before (outside of maybe his 25 HR campaign in ’06) and hasn’t shown it since. 

If he can stay healthy could he return to the 20 HR plateau? Most likely, but that’s the type of number we should expect.

For a player who brings speed to the table, Rollins also has never brought an impressive BABIP to the table. Obviously, we all know that his ’10 mark is something we can expect improvement on, but don’t look for a number in the .320+ range. 

For his career, he has a .290 BABIP and has never posted a number better than .309. It’s a little surprising, considering that he used to routinely bring 40+ stolen bases to the table, but his track record is long enough that by now we need to accept him for what he is. 

He’s just not likely to hit close to .300. We are looking at a .275ish hitter and nothing more.

So, we know that the power is not what he showed in ’07 and his average is modest, at best.

What about his speed and run potential? The stolen bases are extremely hard to predict at this point: When healthy in ’09, he stole 31 in 39 attempts; now, two years older (32-years old) and coming off a year that saw him suffer multiple injuries to his legs, can we really expect him to return to his glory days?

I think he could return to 30 SB, maybe a few more than that, but going into the year expecting him to reach 40+ is a stretch. In fact, would anyone be surprised if he fell short of 30? 

The runs are going to be dependent on where he hits in the lineup and how the guys behind him produce. Yes, he is likely to be the leadoff hitter so that is not a concern (though if he struggles he easily could be dropped to the six hole). 

The problem is, do we think that Ryan Howard and Chase Utley can also rebound from “down” years? It’s a fairly safe assumption and one would think Rollins would at least approach 100 runs with a good chance to eclipse it, but he’s not going to be in the neighborhood of his career high (139).

It certainly would seem that we should be cautious when we draft Jimmy Rollins in 2011. I’m not trying to say that he’s a bad option, because he certainly has the upside to be one of the better options in the league. 

Unfortunately, three years removed from what was easily his career year, he’s unlikely to approach some people’s lofty expectations.

He has become injury prone (less than 140 games in two of the past three years) and somewhat of a shell of what he was. 

At a shallow position it’s still more than enough, but keep your expectations in check. I would probably target him around the sixth round of your draft and avoid reaching for him based on position.

What are your thoughts of Rollins? Is he a player you would target? What type of numbers are you expecting from him?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

How many people remember when Anibal Sanchez exploded onto the scene in 2006 by posting 10 wins with a 2.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 114.1 innings (including a no-hitter)? 

Of course, focusing on the numbers would be ignoring his .240 BABIP or his miniscule 5.67 K/9, but those numbers aren’t important, right?

His numbers were impressive, but the three subsequent years were marred by injuries (including shoulder surgery) and inability.  He made a grand total of 32 starts (167.2 innings) over the three-year span, though 2009 showed signs of hope.  He posted a 3.87 ERA overall, including a 2.94 ERA in six starts over the final month of the year. 

He rode his strong finish into 2010 and Sanchez showed that he had potentially put his past behind him:

13 wins
195.0 innings
3.55 ERA
1.34 WHIP
157 strikeouts (7.25 K/9)
70 walks (3.23 BB/9)
.305 BABIP

It took quite a long time, but Sanchez may have finally fully recovered from the arm issues that cost him nearly three years of his career.  He averaged 91.3 mph on his fastball in 2010, faster than he was throwing back in ’06 (90.8 mph). 

That alone gives us hope.

Over his minor-league career he posted a 10.12 K/9, showing that the strikeout potential was certainly there.  How much stock can we actually put into that?  Probably very little, given what he has been through, though it gives us reason to think that his 7.25 mark from ’10 is probably his floor more than his ceiling.  I wouldn’t anticipate him taking a huge step forward, but an improvement certainly is possible.

He had always shown great control prior to his surgery.  Over his minor league career he posted a BB/9 of 2.91.  It is not a surprise that he struggled rediscovering his location after the surgeries.  While it may have taken longer than many others to find it again, 2010 was no fluke.  He has good control and should continue to do so in 2011.

The one number that jumps out that could be concerning is perhaps his home/road split:

• Home – 2.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 91.2 innings
• Road – 4.35 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 103.1 innings

There was some luck at play (.319 BABIP on the road vs. .286 at home), but it was more that he struck out fewer batters (6.27 K/9 vs. 8.35) that jumps out at you.  Exactly what is the explanation?  Could it be that sitting in the dugout for the first half of an inning threw off his rhythm? 

Anything is possible, but it is something that is worth monitoring.  We’ve seen it before where a pitcher is a must use at home and a bench option when on the road, so keep that in mind.

Obviously, none of the numbers he posted in 2010 are elite marks.  In fact they are far from it—but even if he could just replicate them he should be a solid option to fill out your fantasy rotation.  With his potential to take the next step forward as he puts his surgeries further in the rear view mirror, there is a lot to like.  Yes, there is risk, but late in your draft there is also a lot of potential reward.

What are your thoughts of Sanchez?  Is he a player you would draft?  Why or why not?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

First base is probably the deepest position in baseball.  It is stocked with talent, both for now and the future (as we have seen in our 2011 rankings, which you can check out by clicking here).  How should we value players in keeper leagues?  Let’s take a look:

1. Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals
2. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
3. Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds
4. Adrian Gonzalez – Boston Red Sox
5. Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers
6. Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees
7. Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies
8. Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels
9. Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins
10.  Billy Butler – Kansas City Royals
11. Adam Dunn – Chicago White Sox
12. Ike Davis – New York Mets
13. Gaby Sanchez – Florida Marlins
14. Paul Konerko – Chicago White Sox
15. Eric Hosmer – Kansas City Royals

Thoughts:

• I know a lot of people would love to move Joey Votto further up the rankings, but it is just impossible for me.  It’s not like the top two guys are old, with Pujols at 31 and Cabrera at 27.  Those are two of the elite players in the game, and in yearly leagues or keeper leagues, it is impossible to move them off the top spots in the rankings.
• Who knows where Prince Fielder is going to end up after 2011 (or maybe he’s even moved during the year).  However, at 26 years old with the power he’s already shown, it is impossible for me not to include him in the top 5 of the rankings.
• Should Buster Posey be included on these rankings?  He certainly has the bat to be included, but we all know, if you are drafting him, it is as a catcher.  Plus, with Aubrey Huff resigned and Brandon Belt on the way, it’s arguable if he will maintain his eligibility at 1B for long.
• After hitting “just” 31 HR in 2010, there certainly is reason to be concerned about Ryan Howard, but I can’t drop him any further down these rankings quite yet.  Let us not forget he had 81 RBI with 23 HR through the end of July.  In August, an ankle injury sidelined him for a few weeks which could just as easily be the reason for his overall decline as his age could be (he’s now 31 years old).  Obviously, another poor season would send him spiraling down the rankings, but for now, he’ll maintain his spot here.
• With Adrian Gonzalez signing long-term in Boston (or at least we all know he will be), Kevin Youkilis’ value as a 1B goes to nil.  There’s no reason to include him in these rankings for keeper leagues.
• I debated, including Freddie Freeman over Hosmer, but Hosmer’s overall potential is too much to ignore.  Freeman is still just 21 years old and will open the year as the Braves’ first baseman, but he is coming off a year where he hit just 18 HR in 461 AB at Triple-A.  Yes, he had 34 doubles, so there is hope the power develops, but we need to see some signs of it first.  There’s a chance Hosmer reaches the Majors in 2011, but by the end of 2012, he could be a must-use option.
• Hosmer’s inclusion does bring Billy Butler’s future at 1B into question, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him maintain eligibility there moving forward. 
• Depending on your format’s rules, taking a youngster over Adam LaRoche, Carlos Pena, Derrek Lee and others makes sense, because their upside is higher and could easily leapfrog them in the rankings for 2012.  As long as you have a stud entrenched in your starting lineup, why not roll the dice on a keeper for the following few years (obviously, your league rules help to dictate this strategy)?  As it is, Ike Davis & Gaby Sanchez are arguably better options for 2011, let alone beyond.
• For those curious, Justin Smoak was also in consideration for the final spot on these rankings but his struggles in 2010 helped to keep him off (but just barely).  Brandon Belt was also under consideration, but he was barely edged out by Hosmer.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Whose too high?  Whose too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Someone’s name value can certainly cause many people to overvalue them.  You think that, based on the name alone, the player should be able to live up to the expectations we have attributed to them in the past.  It doesn’t matter what the player has done in recent years, the name holds value.  It’s engrained in our minds.

It’s a mistake you do not want to make.

A perfect example of this phenomenon as we head into 2011 is Alfonso Soriano.  According to Mock Draft Central, he has an ADP of 100.81 and is the 25th outfielder coming off the board.  In comparison, I have him ranked outside the top 60 in the recent release of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (click here if you are interested in purchasing the guide, which features the top 90 prospects for 2011, over 550 player projections and much more).

The name is certainly causing many owners to overvalue him.

Let’s take a look at why I feel that way.

First, his 2010 statistics:

496 At Bats
.258 Batting Average (128 Hits)
24 Home Runs
79 RBI
67 Runs
5 Stolen Bases
.322 On Base Percentage
.496 Slugging Percentage
.295 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Once upon a time, he was a threat to put up a 40/40 season, but those days are long behind him.  He has 14 stolen bases, total, over the past two years and has not had more than 20 since he played his only season in Washington (2006).  To think he could suddenly rediscover that ability, at age 35, would be a huge mistake.  It’s something that is no longer is in his skill set, so we can simply disregard it.

He only reached 100 RBI once in his career.  In fact, his 79 in 2010 is the most he has had in his four seasons as a member of the Cubs.  Granted, that is slightly skewed due to spending time hitting leadoff, but that wasn’t the case in 2010.

After hitting primarily first for his first three seasons in Chicago, he spent the bulk of his time hitting sixth (381 AB) in 2010.  That’s likely where he will be once again in 2011, meaning we can expect him to potentially reach around 80 RBI, but that’s about it.

That also means his opportunity to score runs is going to be extremely limited.  Considering his OBP and his spot in the lineup, do we really think he can score more than 70 runs?  In 2010, there were 33 outfield eligible players to score at least 80 runs.  There were 49 who scored at least 70 runs.  This fact alone puts Soriano as borderline usable in deeper formats.

Just to make matters worse is his power—something that used to help separate him from the rest of the pack but is now average at best.  Over the past three seasons, he has averaged around 24 HR a season, really a number that is nothing special for an outfielder.

Is it a decent number?  Yes, it is.  He was actually in the top 20 among outfielders in home runs in 2010, but there were 33 who hit at least 20.  Now, throw in the fact there is a risk of regression at play.

In 2010 Soriano set a career high in his fly ball rate, at 54.3 percent.  Since 2002, his fly ball rate is 47.4 percent.  Considering his fall in HR/FB in recent years (11.5 percent and 11.8 percent over the past two seasons compared to a 14.9 percent career mark), there is a very good chance he doesn’t replicate the 24 he slugged in 2010.  In fact, would it surprise anyone if he fell short of 20?

Throw in an average that has been less than stellar (.277 for his career but under .260 the past two seasons) and exactly what is it that we are buying into?

Those people who are drafting Alfonso Soriano are doing so based on name value and nothing more.  Do not get caught up in it and waste a pick as early as you seemingly need to in order to get him.  He’s a borderline usable option, even in five-outfielder formats and much better suited to a reserve role.

What are your thoughts of Soriano?  Is he a player you would want to own?  Where would you be willing to select him on draft day?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

We’ve looked at how the top 15 second basemen for 2011 stack up (click here to view), but that really only tells you half the story.  If you miss out on one player, who should you be targeting as a replacement?  Who should be considered on the same level?  That’s the benefit of breaking the players down into tiers.  Let’s take a look at how my second baseman tiers look:

Tier 1: Robinson Cano

At this point he has got to be put into a class all by himself.  He brings power.  He brings average.  He brings both runs and RBI.  The only thing he isn’t going to deliver is speed, but is anyone complaining?  We are talking .320/27/100/100, with the potential for even more.  At this point he is the only second baseman who can be considered for the first round of fantasy drafts.

Tier 2: Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia

This tier has two players who are as close to Cano as you can get, but they both have injury questions hanging over them.  Either one, if healthy, could push Cano for the top spot, but heading into the season there are more questions than answers.  These are potential second or third round selections.

Tier 3: Ian Kinsler, Dan Uggla

If Kinsler can stay healthy, he easily could be pushed up to a higher tier, but the injuries just creep up on him year after year after year.  Unfortunately, we have to take that into consideration.  As for Uggla, he likely will bring the most power from the position, but the potential average problems keeps him down in this level (which is still pretty good).  These guys should be targeted no later than the fourth round.

Tier 4: Brandon Phillips, Martin Prado, Rickie Weeks, Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill, Brian Roberts

Questions, questions and more questions from this group.  Where exactly does Phillips fit into the Reds lineup?  If he’s hitting leadoff, his value is not quite as high.  Can Prado and Weeks repeat their strong 2010 campaigns?  Can Zobrist, Hill and Roberts rebound back to what they have previously proven to be? 

The questions drive them all down in the draft order, but all bring tremendous upside.  These players are likely to be drafted anywhere from rounds six through 12 and are fairly interchangeable depending on your team needs.

Tier 5: Kelly Johnson, Gordon Beckham, Howie Kendrick, Chone Figgins

At this point you are really getting into players that you should prefer taking as a reserve or middle infielder as opposed to your starting second baseman.  They bring upside with them, but they also bring huge risk.  These players make sense to be selected after round 12 depending on whom you have drafted as your starter or how the rest of your team has been shaped.

What are your thoughts on the tiers?  How would you group them?  Is there anyone that you think doesn’t belong in the group that I’ve placed them?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It has been an extremely busy week, with a few trades (Tom Gorzelanny, Vernon Wells), a few big signings (Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon) and a lot in between.

Let’s take a look at all of the transactions from the past week and determine which have fantasy value and which we can safely ignore.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Re-signed P Aaron Heilman. On the surface this may look like an odd move. Heilman was the best of the worst in Arizona’s 2010 bullpen, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. In fact, his WHIP is his best from the past three seasons (his best ERA over that span is 4.11 in 2009). The thing is, reports are that Heilman will get a chance to earn a spot in the rotation, something that he has always coveted. It’s hard to imagine him cracking the top five however, and with his struggles of late, he can safely be ignored in all formats.
• Signed INF Cody Ransom. He’s shown power in the minor leagues (183 HR, 655 RBI) but has never put it together in the major leagues. In 304 AB he has hit .227 with nine HR and 39 RBI. With Melvin Mora slotted at 3B, there’s a chance he competes for the job, so keep an eye on him. It’s a long shot, but you never know.

Atlanta Braves

• None

Baltimore Orioles

• None

Boston Red Sox

• None

Chicago Cubs

• Acquired OF Michael Burgess, P A.J. Morris and P Graham Hicks from the Washington Nationals for P Tom Gorzelanny. The Cubs add three prospects to help restock what they gave up to acquire Matt Garza. None of the three are particularly highly regarded, however. Burgess hit .265 with 18 HR in 460 AB across two levels before struggling in the AFL (.246, two HR in 65 AB). Morris is a righty who split time between starting and relieving in 2010, posting a 3.77 ERA in 27 appearances (16 starts) with 71 K in 86.0 innings. Hicks posted a 5.27 ERA over 66.2 innings in the South Atlantic League (Single-A). None of the three figure to make a major impact in the near future.

Chicago White Sox

• Claimed P Phil Humber off waivers. Once highly touted, Humber has become waiver wire fodder for major league franchises (the A’s had claimed him not too long ago, only to designate him for assignment). There’s no fantasy appeal here in the least.

Cincinnati Reds

• None

Cleveland Indians

• None

Colorado Rockies

• Re-signed 1B Jason Giambi. He had only 222 plate appearances in 2010 being used as a pinch hitter and reserve first baseman. With Ty Wigginton potentially being used as the main backup first baseman, Giambi could be an exclusive pinch hitter in 2011. There’s no fantasy value here.
• Signed 3B Joe Crede to a minor league contract. Health concerns are always going to hang over him, as they have for the last few years. He was out of the majors in 2010 and is a long shot to make the team.

Detroit Tigers

• None

Florida Marlins

• None

Houston Astros

• None

Kansas City Royals

• Re-signed P Bruce Chen. He posted decent enough numbers for the Royals in 2010, with a 4.17 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Of course, he struck out just 98 over 140.1 innings. The Royals needed able bodies, so Chen makes sense, but from a fantasy appeal there is nothing there. I discussed him as a player to avoid back in October, so for more on Chen, click here.

Los Angeles Angels

• Traded C/1B Mike Napoli and OF Juan Rivera to the Toronto Blue Jays for OF Vernon Wells. The deal gives Hank Conger a better chance of opening the year in the major leagues, but he could get a similar treatment that Napoli did from Mike Scioscia, who always prefers defense to offense. I wouldn’t bump Conger up too much, if at all. As for Wells, he should join Torii Hunter and Peter Bourjos in the outfield, with Bobby Abreu becoming the DH. However, a lot of his success in 2010 came from playing in Toronto (.321, 20 HR, 54 RBI at home), so taking him out of that environment hurts his value. I would drop him down your rankings due to the deal. For more on the deal, click here.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Signed OF Gabe Kapler to a minor league contract. He hasn’t had more than 315 AB in a season since 2001. Even with concerns in LF, he’s got no potential fantasy appeal.
• Signed OF Marcus Thames. He figures to be the platoon option for Jay Gibbons to open the season, as well as some major pop off the bench. However, the Dodgers have two prospects who could assert themselves as the everyday left fielder by midseason in Jerry Sands and Trayvon Robinson, so proceed with caution. Thames could eventually be nothing more than a pinch hitter.

Milwaukee Brewers

• None

Minnesota Twins

• Re-signed P Carl Pavano. It was the right move for all involved. Given Pavano’s history, having found a place where he could excel, it just never made sense to leave it. He posted a 3.75 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and offers tremendous control (a BB/9 below 2.00 in five of the past six seasons). He unfortunately offers little in the strikeout department (5.72 career K/9), and can we really expect him to repeat a 17-win performance? He’s a low-end option, at best, and I wouldn’t pay too much to acquire him.

New York Mets

• Signed P Chris Young. Numerous arm problems later, Young lands in Citi Field in an effort to rebuild his value. It’s been a long time since he was able to stay healthy (173.0 innings in 2007), so you have to proceed with caution. If he can stay on the field, a fly ball pitcher in a pitcher’s ballpark could be a huge recipe for success. A late-round flier is worth it at this point.
• Signed OF Scott Hairston to a minor league contract. He can play all three outfield positions and will battle for a reserve role in spring training. There’s no fantasy value there unless an injury opens up regular playing time.
• Signed P Tim Byrdak to a minor league contract. He’ll compete for a role in the bullpen as a lefty specialist. There’s no fantasy value.

New York Yankees

• Signed OF Andruw Jones. He comes to New York not as an everyday player, but as someone who will spell Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner from time to time (especially against tough lefties), as well as see an occasional day at DH. He showed he still had some pop in 2010, hitting 19 HR in 278 AB, though he hasn’t hit above .250 since 2006. He could hold value in AL-only formats, but otherwise I wouldn’t anticipate enough at-bats to make him worthwhile.

Oakland Athletics

• None

Philadelphia Phillies

• None

Pittsburgh Pirates

• None

Seattle Mariners

• Signed OF Jody Gerut to a minor league contract. He provides depth for the Mariners in the outfield, but that’s about it.
• Signed P Nate Robertson to a minor league contract. He has one career year with an ERA under 4.48. There’s no reason to get excited.

St. Louis Cardinals

• None

San Diego Padres

• Signed C Gregg Zaun to a minor league contract. It’s organizational depth and protection for Nick Hundley. There’s no fantasy appeal.
• Signed P Chad Qualls. He’s looking for a chance to rebuild his value, but he’s not going to sniff the ninth inning with Heath Bell in town. Only consider him if you are in a league that values middle relievers.

San Francisco Giants

• Signed P Jeff Suppan to a minor league contract. Since 2008 his best ERA is 4.96. Who’s excited now? If he even makes the team, it’ll be in the bullpen. Don’t bother.

Tampa Bay Rays

• Signed OF Johnny Damon. His presence will have a two-fold effect on the Rays lineup. First of all, it likely means that Desmond Jennings will open the year in Triple-A. Secondly, coupled with the Manny signing that we will discuss momentarily, it could leave Matt Joyce as a reserve (unless they opt to move Ben Zobrist to 1B, leaving Dan Johnson on the bench). Regardless, it seems surprising that the Rays would cause such a stir to the lineup for a player who may not be an upgrade. He hit .271 with eight HR and 11 SB in 2010 and has just 23 SB total over the past two years. We knew his 2009 power surge (24 HR) was due in large part to Yankee Stadium, so expecting a huge rebound would be foolish. We are talking about a potential 10/10 player, at best, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him reduced to a part-time role by the end of July, at the latest.
• Signed OF Manny Ramirez. He is going to be the full-time designated hitter, which helps to throw the Rays lineup into a deeper question mark. Dan Johnson was expected to see time at DH but now could settle into the full-time 1B role (though Ben Zobrist, among others, could also see time). He returns to the AL East with a lot to prove, especially considering that he will get just $2 million for 2011. If he wants to extend his career, he is going to have to show up to the ballpark and deliver. Look for him to play with a chip on his shoulder, making him worth considering in all formats.

Texas Rangers

• None

Toronto Blue Jays

• Signed P Jon Rauch. With their bullpen depleted via free agency, the Blue Jays first brought in Octavio Dotel and now Rauch. It could be an open competition between those two and Jason Frasor for the closer’s role in spring training. While my money would be on Dotel to open the year as the closer, any one of the three could emerge before long. That makes them all worth monitoring.
• Traded OF Vernon Wells to the Los Angeles Angels for C/1B Mike Napoli and OF Juan Rivera. Shocking, to say the least. We covered this deal in detail when it went down (click here to view), so I’ll just give a quick recap here. You have to wonder about the fallout in regards to J.P. Arencibia, who was supposed to be the full-time catcher. Of course, Napoli could play 1B (along with Adam Lind) and DH, which would likely leave Edwin Encarnacion on the bench (probably the best option). Time will tell. As for Rivera, his role will depend on how the Blue Jays decide to use Jose Bautista. If he plays third, Rivera will be a full-time player. If he is in the outfield, Rivera is a reserve.

Washington Nationals

• Acquired P Tom Gorzelanny from the Chicago Cubs for OF Michael Burgess, P A.J. Morris and P Graham Hicks. Gorzelanny should finally get an opportunity to start every five days, as the Nationals have been searching for starting pitching all winter long. He posted a 4.09 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in ’10 but actually pitched better than the numbers (.320 BABIP didn’t help). He has control problems at times, which helps to keep him from posting a solid WHIP, but does bring some strikeout potential. In deeper formats, he should be on your radar.
• Signed INF Alex Cora. He’s a reserve and nothing more.
• Signed U Jerry Hairston Jr. He’ll be a utility infielder, giving the Nationals a little security should Ian Desmond or Danny Espinosa struggle. He also could see some time in the outfield but doesn’t figure to get enough at-bats to be viable.
• Signed P Todd Coffey. In his six-year career he has posted an ERA under 4.00 twice. With a career 1.45 WHIP, is anyone getting excited? He’ll work the middle innings, and that’s about it.

What are your thoughts on all these moves? Which will have the biggest fantasy impact?  Do any of them change your thinking for the upcoming year?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Matt Wieters was supposed to be the next hot prospect. He was supposed explode onto the scene in 2009 and follow it up with an amazing 2010 campaign. 

Fantasy owners reached for him heading into the 2010 season to make sure they didn’t miss the boat based on what everyone was saying.

Unfortunately, his performance far from lived up to the hype:

446 At Bats
.249 Batting Average (111 Hits)
11 Home Runs
55 RBI
37 Runs
0 Stolen Bases
.319 On Base Percentage
.377 Slugging Percentage
.287 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Those numbers just scream special, don’t they?

In all fairness, there was a lot to be excited for from the 2007 first-round draft pick. He hit .343 in his minor league career with 32 HR and 121 RBI in 578 AB spending time in Single, Double and Triple-A. 

Now, the question that faces fantasy owners is if we should expect him to rediscover his stroke now that he has a year and a half of Major League experience under his belt.

Of course, what a lot of people ignored was his minor league BABIP marks. At all three levels they were extremely inflated:

• Single-A: .374
• Double-A: .376
• Triple-A: .352

Could he improve upon his ’10 mark? Yes, there certainly is room, but it’s not an unreasonable number.

Neither was his 21.1 percent strikeout rate, considering he was at 21.3 percent at Triple-A (as well as 20.5 percent at Single-A). That means, if he wants to significantly improve his average it is likely going to come from an increase in power.

Is that something that can be expected? In order to help us, let’s take a look at his HR/AB ratio at each level:

• Single-A: HR every 15.3 AB
• Double-A: HR every 17.3 AB
• Triple-A: HR every 28.2 AB
• Major Leagues: HR every 40.0 AB

He certainly puts more than enough balls in the air to sustain more power (his career fly ball rate is 38.9 percent).

With HR/FB marks of 8.4 percent and 8.0 percent, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him improve on that mark at 24 years-old (he’ll turn 25 in May).

For comparison purposes, here are two players with similar FB percent:

• Chase Utley – 39.0 percent FB percent — 11.2 percent HR/FB – 16 HR (425 AB)
• Matt Kemp – 39.3 percent FB percent — 16.2 percent HR/FB – 28 HR (602 AB)

Obviously we wouldn’t expect any catcher to reach 602 AB, but Utley’s mark could be a realistic level, now that he has his feet wet and plenty of experience. That would also put him at a HR/AB rate similar to what he showed at Triple-A.

That improvement alone, along with a little more luck, would make Wieters a significantly more attractive option. Throw in an improved lineup around him, giving him more opportunities for RBI and runs, and there is reason to be optimistic.

When all is said and done we get the following projection for 2011:

.270 (135-500), 19 HR, 75 RBI, 60 R, 1 SB, .313 BABIP, .344 OBP, .438 SLG

Those are solid numbers, but, of course, I wouldn’t recommend going as crazy as we did last season. However, I wouldn’t shy away from him either.

Catcher is not a deep position and Wieters was hyped for a reason. He should settle in and be a viable option in all formats.

What are your thoughts of Wieters? Can he rebound from ’10? Will he ever reach the expectations people had for him?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

This offseason, the Mets have seemingly been acquiring potential options to be their everyday second baseman, from selecting Brad Emaus in the Rule 5 Draft to trading Michael Antonini to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Chin-lung Hu. 

It’s a wide-open competition, so let’s take a look at all the options the Mets have and handicap who fantasy owners should want to see:

Luis Castillo

The player that no Mets fan wants to see on the roster and who no fantasy owner should want to see win the job.  Once among the elite top-of-the-order hitters in the game, Castillo hit .235 with 0 HR and 8 SB in 247 AB in 2010.  He never had any power and the speed, which was once his calling card (he stole as many as 62 bases in a season), has seemingly disappeared thanks to his deteriorating knees.

At 35-years old, he brings nothing to the table for fantasy owners and may be the most unlikely choice to land on the Opening Day roster, let alone to win the job.  Even if he surprises everyone and wins the job, it would always feel like he was a step away of being replaced.

Odds: 40-1

Chin-lung Hu

It was just a few years ago that Baseball America had him ranked as the 55th-best prospect in baseball.  However, his .299 career minor league average has not yet translated to the major leagues.  He’s hit just .191 in 173 at-bats over parts of four seasons, never really receiving a significant chance at regular at-bats.

He’s a shortstop by trade, though he has seen time at both the major and minor league levels at second base as well.  The problem is there isn’t much to his game offensively outside of the potential average.  He has never stole more than 23 bases in a season, nor has he hit more than 14 HR (part of which came in the Pacific Coast League). 

Without the upside in speed or power, even if he wins the job, he isn’t going to be much of a fantasy asset.

Odds: 25-1

Ruben Tejada

He got his first taste of the major leagues in 2010, but looked significantly overmatched en route to hitting .213 with 1 HR and 2 SB in 216 AB.  It appears that, with the Mets’ depth, they would much prefer he spends an entire season at Triple-A to get more experience.  At 21 years old, it certainly makes sense.

Odds: 30-1

Daniel Murphy

This is the sentimental favorite among Mets fans, though the biggest question is if he can handle the position.  His bat would play pretty well there given what he did as a first baseman in 2009 (.266, 12 HR, 63 RBI over 508 AB).  Now, can he maintain that type of production?

There was nothing unrealistic in the numbers, with a .284 BABIP and 6.6 percent HR/FB.  He did suffer numerous injuries in 2010, keeping him from appearing in a major league game.  That adds extra concern, but he appears to be healthy this winter, hitting .320 with 4 HR and 22 RBI in 103 AB in the Dominican Winter League.

Given the other options, he is among the best for fantasy owners and the Mets as well (assuming he can handle the position defensively).  It’s no lock that he matches his 2009 production, but the potential is certainly there if he can stay healthy.

Odds: 5-1

Brad Emaus

A Rule 5 draft pick from the Toronto organization, he will likely stick with the team for the full season as opposed to risking giving him back to the Blue Jays.  With the potential to post a 10/10 season, at a minimum, he is by far the best offensive option for fantasy owners.

In 2010 between Double and Triple-A, he had 15 HR and 13 SB while showing a good eye at the plate (69 K vs. 81 BB).  The truth of the matter is none of the other options bring that type of potential to the table. 

With his eye, he could be the perfect complement to the Mets lineup.  Last season, they were 20th in the major leagues in drawing walks, with 502. 

Odds: 8-1

Justin Turner

He’s a real wild card in the competition, given his .114 average in 35 major league AB.  In 1,916 minor league AB, he has 38 HR and 45 SB.  He’s more of a utility infielder than anything else and a long shot to win the job.

Odds: 30-1

What are your thoughts of the Mets second base competition?  Who would you like to see win it?  Who do you think will win it?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com