Kuzul

Fantasy owners continue to wait for Billy Butler to develop power.  After hitting 21 HR in 2009 (along with 51 doubles) there was hope that he had turned the corner.  There was hope that he was on the precipice of becoming one of the elite first baseman in the game.

Unfortunately, it didn’t happen.  In fact, it wasn’t even close.  The 2010 season, while solid in many ways, fell well short of expectations:

• 595 At Bats
• .318 Batting Average (189 Hits)
• 15 Home Runs
• 78 RBI
• 71 Runs
• No Stolen Bases
• .388 On Base Percentage
• .469 Slugging Percentage
• .341 Batting Average on Balls in Play

There is no questioning the fact that he can hit.  While you may want to point to the BABIP as something that is unsustainable, he was at .332 in 2009 so there is some reason to believe that he can once again be in that range.  He makes good contact, posting a 13.1 percent strikeout rate in 2010 (and 14.8 percent over his 1,975 AB career).

He also has improved his walk rate each of the past three seasons:

• 2008 – 6.9 percent
• 2009 – 8.6 percent
• 2010 – 10.2 percent

He’s got a good eye at the plate and, at 24 years old (he’ll turn 25 on April 18), it is safe to say that he is likely a perennial .300 hitter in the Major Leagues.  There aren’t many hitters that you are comfortable projecting out to well above .300, but Butler is one of them at this point.

That’s not the question on everyone’s mind, however.  What we really are concerned about is if he can finally take that next step in the power department. 

While he regressed in 2010, he still had 60 extra base hits (45 doubles, 15 home runs).  The doubles tied him for fifth in the league, only four behind Adrian Beltre.  Sooner or later, as he gets older and hopefully stronger, you have to believe that some of those balls are going to start finding their way over the wall, don’t you?

Yes, his fly ball rate is somewhat concerning, as he has consistently been between 34.0 percent and 34.6 percent each of the past three years.  Still, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him improve upon his HR/FB rate, would it?

Just look at his marks over the past three years:

• 2008 – 8.2 percent
• 2009 – 11.9 percent
• 2010 – 8.4 percent

Just for comparison purposes, Ryan Braun had a FB percentage of 34.9 percent in 2010 with a HR/FB of 14.0 percent.  That led to 25 HR. 

I’m not comparing Butler to Braun, because it is no contest.  The point is that, even if Butler doesn’t improve upon his fly ball rate, there is a good chance that he can vault himself into the 25-28 HR range.

If that were to happen, coupled with his average upside, he’d easily become a must use fantasy option.  The Royals lineup may not be loaded (at least not yet), but hitting in the middle should offer more than enough RBI opportunities.

At this point I would consider Butler a borderline starting 1B for 2011, but in leagues that require a corner infielder he is a very good option.  Seeing him hit .310+ with 24 (or more) HR and in the 90 RBI range is not unrealistic. 

According to Mock Draft Central he’s currently the 13th 1B coming off the board with an ADP of 85.55.  Given what we know about him, that seems dead on.

What are your thoughts on Butler?  Could this be the year that he puts it together?  Is he a player you would target on draft day?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Los Angeles Dodgers are planning to start Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames in left field to open the 2011 season. 

No, that’s not a typo. 

It is the same Jay Gibbons who was out of the league in 2008 and 2009 only to resurface in Los Angeles in 2010 and hit .280 with five HR in 75 AB.  It is the same Marcus Thames who has never had more than 348 AB in a season and is a career .248 hitter.

In regards to Gibbons, obviously it’s a tiny sample size and impossible to draw any conclusions from.  The fact of the matter is that Gibbons hasn’t posted a usable season since 2005 (.277, 26 HR) and, at 34 years old, it’s nearly impossible to expect any significant production in 2011.  In fact, it would appear much more likely that he falls flat on his face.

Thames has power, but strikes out a ton (28.1 percent over his 1,946 AB career) making it nearly impossible to hit for a usable option.  He’s never had the opportunity to play full time and is much better suited as part of a platoon. 

But is a Gibbons/Thames pairing better than what they may have elsewhere?

The Dodgers have a pair of in-house options who could emerge by year’s end and give their current platoon a run for their money.  Let’s take a look:

Trayvon Robinson
He spent the year at Double-A in 2010, hitting .300 with nine HR, 57 RBI, 80 R and 38 SB.  The 10th-round draft pick in 2005 has slowly made his way through the Dodgers system and now, at 23, appears primed to take the next step.

He has the potential to be a dynamic top-of-the-order hitter, with 85 stolen bases over the past two seasons.  However, he needs to improve his contact rate if he has any intention of making an impact.  In 2010, he struck out 125 times versus 73 walks.  It was his fourth straight season of at least 104 Ks and the first time he has walked more than 60 times in a year.

To get an idea, just look at his strikeout rates over the past four years:

• 2007: 30.05%
• 2008: 23.69%
• 2009: 27.13%
• 2010: 28.80%

It’s impossible to be a usable leadoff type option with that type of strikeout rate.  Robinson needs to be able to get on base regularly and if he isn’t making contact, it is just not going to happen.  With the fear of his strikeout rate further increasing as he moves up against tougher competition (he hasn’t played above Double-A), he appears to be a longshot at this point.  He has the speed, but needs to develop the rest of his game early in 2011.

Jerry Sands
He split time between Single and Double-A in 2010 hitting .301 with 35 HR, 93 RBI, 102 R and 18 SB.  The SB total is probably a bit deceiving and I wouldn’t put any stock in it.  His ticket to the major leagues is his power, and he showed it off in a big way.

He was consistently good at each level he stopped at in 2010, helping to give hope that he can maintain the power as he climbs the ladder:

• Single-A: .333, 18 HR, 46 RBI in 243 AB
• Double-A: .270, 17 HR, 47 RBI in 259 AB

Like Robinson, he also could have a problem with strikeouts as he moves to the upper-levels, though his rate was actually better in 2010. 

At Double-A he posted a 23.94 percent rate, and while that is concerning, his power certainly helps to offset it.  Yes, there is a concern that he may hit for a lower average than fantasy owners would prefer, but if he hits a ton of home runs it is something that we can easily overlook.  Plus, you have to think that his walk rate (12.7 percent) gives hope that he can keep the strikeouts under control.

Power hitters are no longer a certainty in baseball, so someone that can bring 30-plus HR power to the table is always going to have value.  The 28th-round draft pick in 2008 easily could overtake Gibbons/Thames for the LF job, or maybe the Dodgers will get tired of the light-hitting James Loney filling 1B (Sands has seen significant time both at 1B and in the outfield in the minors). 

Sands should start the year at Triple-A and if he makes a statement early, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the outfield before long.

What are your thoughts on these two players?  Who do you think has the better chance of reaching the major leagues in 2011?  Would you target either in fantasy formats?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:

• Ackley, Dustin
• Archer, Chris
• Britton, Zach
• Cousins, Scott
• Iglesias, Jose
• Kipnis, Jason
• Lawrie, Brett
• Mesoraco, Devin
• Pineda, Michael
• Ramos, Wilson
• Revere, Ben
• Taylor, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Jason Bay’s debut season with the Mets was a disaster. I don’t think that there is any better way to put it. 

First he was plagued by simple inability (.259, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 48 R in 348 AB) before his season was cut short due to a concussion.  After signing a four-year, $66 million contract prior to the 2010 season, significantly more was expected from both the Mets and fantasy owners.

Due $16 million in 2011, the question now is if he can rebound to what we thought could’ve been.

Bay is the same player who posted 30-plus HR years in four out of five seasons from 2005-2009. 

Yes, CitiField easily could’ve zapped a little bit of his power, but just six?!  That just doesn’t seem likely.  It wasn’t just that he didn’t hit at home (3 HR in 159 AB), but he was also pathetic on the road (3 HR in 189 AB).

His fly ball rate was consistent with his career, as he was at 45.2 percent (compared to 44.5 percent for his career).  The problem was in his HR/FB rate.  Just look at the percentages since 2005:

• 2005 – 17.0
• 2006 – 18.8 
• 2007 – 11.4 
• 2008 – 15.0 
• 2009 – 19.7 
• 2010 – 5.1 

Which of these numbers doesn’t belong?

David Wright is not a perfect comparison (for various reasons), but we saw him struggle with power in his first year at CitiField as well.  He went from 33 HR in ’08 to 10 HR in ’09 back to 29 HR in ’10.

Maybe there an intimidation factor at play with the big confines of CitiField…

Maybe he was pressing to impress his new teammates…

Maybe it was the adjustment back to the NL…

Whatever it was, we clearly didn’t get the Jason Bay we have come to expect.  There’s no reason to think that he won’t bounce back from it.  I think the greater concern is the concussion that ended his season on July 25. 

The other problems can be explained and there is reason to believe that a rebound will come.  The concussion Is physical and there really is no guarantee that he fully recovers from it (it’s a similar concern that we have regarding Justin Morneau).

Still, the potential upside in Bay makes him well worth drafting in all formats.  While it is tough to expect him to return to his 30-plus HR days, would it surprise anyone if he hit 25 in 2011?  It’s not like he wasn’t still showing extra base power, with 20 doubles and six triples in 2010.

The rest of his metrics were believable (26.1 percent strikeout rate, .329 BABIP), so with an increase in power should come an increase in average.

In fact, let’s assume 550 AB and those metrics staying about the same.  If he was to hit 25 HR, his average would be .273.  Don’t believe a .329 BABIP?  Even if he was to fall to .310, his average would be .260. 

While that’s not an elite mark, it certainly isn’t going to kill you.

Throw in the fact that he hits in the middle of the Mets lineup, which should provide ample opportunities for RBI and Runs, there’s an awful lot to like.  I know there are concerns about the Mets, but with Jose Reyes, David Wright, Ike Davis and company, if everyone can stay healthy scoring won’t be a concern.

As a baseline, I would consider him a .265 hitter with 20 HR, 80 RBI, 70 R and 12 SB (keep in mind, this is not my actual projection for him).  Who is that comparable to?

In 2010, Hunter Pence hit .282 with 25 HR, 91 RBI, 93 R and 18 SB.  Are those better numbers than my baseline for Bay?  Absolutely, but they aren’t significantly off, especially when you take the ADP into consideration. 

Pence is currently the 21st outfielder off the board going around pick 87.  Bay, meanwhile, is the 44th outfielder off the board going around pick 174.

That’s around seven rounds later for a player whose upside is certainly the same as Pence’s.  In fact, given Bay’s history, would it be surprising to see him outperform Pence?  If you like taking Pence in Round 7, you certainly should like taking Bay in Round 14 or later.

What are your thoughts of Bay?  Do you think he could bounce back in ’11?  How good do you think he could perform?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

After the top two options at shortstop, are there any players that you would consider a lock to produce in 2011?  Injuries, inconsistency and age all factor in to the subsequent players, causing fantasy owners to think twice before drafting them. 

That’s not to say that there isn’t talent available because there are numerous players who could put up big campaigns. 

Let’s take a look at how the shortstop rankings currently look:

1. Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins
2. Troy Tulowitzki – Colorado Rockies
3. Jose Reyes – New York Mets
4. Elvis Andrus – Texas Rangers
5. Jimmy Rollins – Philadelphia Phillies
6. Derek Jeter – New York Yankees
7. Alexei Ramirez – Chicago White Sox
8. Starlin Castro – Chicago Cubs
9. Stephen Drew – Arizona Diamondbacks
10. Alcides Escobar – Kansas City Royals
11. Ian Desmond – Washington Nationals
12. Juan Uribe – Los Angeles Dodgers
13. Jhonny Peralta – Detroit Tigers
14. Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Minnesota Twins
15. Rafael Furcal – Los Angeles Dodgers

Thoughts:

• This is one position that is basically 1 and 1a.  I know Tulowitzki struggled a bit early on, but he showed just how hot he has the ability to get down the stretch.  He’s one of the elite players in the game, let alone at a shallow position.  How can you not like him?
• I’m not a believer in Elvis Andrus’ zero HRs from 2010.  Let us not forget that he hit six in his rookie campaign of 2009.  No, he’s not going to be a 10-12 option (most likely), but if he can hit six-to-eight along with the SB and R, he’s going to be a great option.  Of course, there are now rumors that Andrus could be moved out of the leadoff spot in favor of Ian Kinsler, which would have a major effect on his value.  That’s something we are going to have to monitor throughout the preseason.
• Are you someone that likes Alexei Ramirez as a fantasy option?  He is a good buy (click here for my thoughts on him), but if you miss out on him Ian Desmond is a viable alternative.  For a comparison between the two, click here.
• Now in Kansas City, Alcides Escobar should see increased opportunities to run (the old management in Milwaukee hardly let any take their shots on the bases).  With his speed, that certainly should make him a viable, low-end option in 2011.
• To see my 2011 projection for Jose Reyes, click here. 

AL/NL Only Rankings:

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Whose too high?  Whose too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First-Round Breakdown

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Clearly, it was a disappointing season for Kurt Suzuki in 2010. 

Many people anticipated him fully breaking out, but instead he regressed across the board:

495 At Bats
.242 Batting Average (120 Hits)
13 Home Runs
71 RBI
55 Runs
3 Stolen Bases
.303 On Base Percentage
.366 Slugging Percentage
.245 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The average is easy to throw away thanks to an incredibly unlucky BABIP. He makes great contact (9.9% strikeout rate in ’10 and 11.9% for his career) and doesn’t put an excessive amount of balls into the air (40.8% fly ball rate in ’10, 38.4% for his career). 

There is every reason to expect a significant rebound from Suzuki in 2011 back into the .270-.280 range, at the least.

In fact, with his makeup there is the potential that he hits even better than that.

Where he really stagnated was in the power department, going from 15 HR (as well as 37 doubles) in 2009 to last year’s 13 HR and 18 doubles. Yes, an injury cost him some time, but that’s not enough of an explanation.

Part of the problem could be the lack of depth in the Athletics lineup.

Suzuki, when in the lineup, rarely had any protection (do you count Kevin Kouzmanoff at this point), allowing opponents to pitch him tough. In few other lineups would Suzuki see significant time hitting third (221 AB) or fourth (191 AB). The A’s addressed that, to an extent, with the additions of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham. 

While Suzuki easily could still pencil in to the third spot, he will have a lot more protection in place, which should help him out.

While his home ballpark does him no favors, Suzuki was actually worse on the road than he was at home:

• Home – .263, 8 HR, 46 RBI in 259 AB
• Road – .220, 5 HR, 25 RBI in 236 AB

There is no reason to expect that to continue, meaning an overall improvement in Suzuki’s production. Even if he was simply to replicate his home numbers when on the road, you’d be looking at a catcher with 15+ HR and 85+ RBI.  Who isn’t looking for that?

While there is still some hope that he could develop more power, it’s hard to project him into the 20+ range. 

Is it possible? Absolutely. At 27 years old, he easily could add power and improve on his career 6.8% HR/FB. Expecting it, however, would be a mistake.

What can we enter 2011 expecting? Let’s take a look:

.285 (157-550), 17 HR, 80 RBI, 70 R, 5 SB, .295 BABIP, .346 OBP, .440 SLG

Those would be solid numbers for any catcher, but Suzuki brings with him the potential to substantially outperform the projection. It is based on a 10.55% strikeout rate and there certainly is a chance that he is luckier and posts a higher BABIP.

As we discussed, there also is the potential for him to hit more home runs, which in turn will lead to more runs and RBI. While Suzuki disappointed in 2010, there is no reason to simply ignore him because of it. 

Catcher is not an overly deep position, so focusing on potential in the middle rounds is certainly the way to go.

What are your thoughts on Suzuki? Is he a player you would target in your drafts? Why or why not?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Let’s take a look at all of the transactions from the past week (January 10-16) and determine which have fantasy value and which we can safely ignore.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Signed Util Willie Bloomquist: He has a touch of speed (25 SB in ’09), but he’s more of a utility player that isn’t going to see enough time in one spot to make any type of an impact. In 2010 he saw time at 1B, 2B, SS, 3B and OF (though the only position he spent more than 11 games at was OF). He’ll be a jack of all trades for Arizona, but one you can safely avoid.

Atlanta Braves

• None

Baltimore Orioles

• Signed P Kevin Gregg: Gregg joins the Orioles, where he will likely step into the closer’s role, supplanting Koji Uehara. He struggles with his control (over 4.29 BB/9 in three of the past four seasons) and could potentially struggle. He’s no lock to hold the job down all year long. Consider him a low-end closer option, but if you want to draft him, handcuffing him with Uehara would probably be a good idea.

Boston Red Sox

• None

Chicago Cubs

• Claimed C Max Ramirez off waivers from the Boston Red Sox: We all know he can hit, and he has an opportunity to win the backup catcher’s job to Geovany Soto. That would put him an injury away from making an impact, so those in two-catcher formats will want to pay attention.
• Signed OF Reed Johnson: He’ll have the chance to get significant time in the OF with Jay Gibbons looking like the starting LF in LA, but it’s more likely that he is simply a fourth or fifth outfielder in Chicago. As it is, he hasn’t hit more than 10 HR in a year since 2006 and has never reached double-digit stolen bases. Even if he got playing time, he wouldn’t really be worth considering.

Chicago White Sox

• Signed LHP Will Ohman: This move may seem benign on the surface, but it could have a much bigger impact than you think. Now with an extra LHP in the bullpen, it could make two things happen: 1) It could clear a spot for Chris Sale to move to the rotation, and 2) It could clear the way for Matt Thornton to take the closer’s role. While Ohman himself won’t have value, his presence will certainly have a snowball effect on the rest of the staff.

Cincinnati Reds

• Signed SS Edgar Renteria: Paul Janish would have started at shortstop for the Reds, so the signing certainly makes sense. Neither will likely hold much fantasy appeal, however, no matter who starts.
• Signed OF Fred Lewis: He spent a lot of time as the Blue Jays’ leadoff hitter in 2010, hitting .262 with eight HR, 36 RBI, 70 R and 17 SB. He’ll be a left-handed complement (along with Jeremy Hermida) to Drew Stubbs, Jonny Gomes and Chris Heisey. It’s hard to imagine him having much fantasy appeal, but if he can leapfrog Gomes, he certainly would. He’s worth monitoring off the waiver wire.

Cleveland Indians

• None

Colorado Rockies

• None

Detroit Tigers

• Signed P Brad Penny: He was supposed to be a reclamation project for the Cardinals in 2010, but yet another injury cut his season short. When he was able to toe the rubber he looked good (3.23 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), but with less than 100 innings in two of the past three seasons, it is tough to depend on him. He is not a source of strikeouts (6.27 K/9 for his career, though he has been at 5.84 or lower each of the past four seasons) and moves to the AL for just the second time in his career. Yes, the ballpark could help him, but facing a DH on a regular basis will certainly make sledding a little bit more difficult. He’s a low-end option, at best, in mixed leagues.

Florida Marlins

• None

Houston Astros

• None

Kansas City Royals

• Signed P Jeff Francis: We touched on this signing during the week (click here for Will’s thoughts), so this will be quick. He was never really impressive in Colorado (4.77 career ERA, 1.43 career WHIP), offers no real strikeout upside (6.15 career K/9) and moves to the AL, where things can be much more difficult. It just feels like a recipe for disaster, doesn’t it?

Los Angeles Angels

• None

Los Angeles Dodgers

• None

Milwaukee Brewers

• None

Minnesota Twins

• Signed DH Jim Thome: A healthy Justin Morneau will likely limit the time Thome gets to play, but he proved in 2010 that he could still rake against right-handed pitching (.302, 19 HR, 45 RBI in 189 AB). The problem is that there really isn’t regular playing time available for him. He will split time at DH with Jason Kubel, which, when coupled with his lack of position eligibility (he’s only eligible at the U), causes him to only really have value in AL-only leagues or the deepest of mixed leagues. If he was guaranteed regular at-bats, things would be significantly different.

New York Mets

• Signed P Taylor Tankersley to a minor league contract: He’ll compete to be the lefty replacement for the losses of Hisanori Takahashi and Pedro Feliciano in the Mets bullpen. However, he’s a middle reliever and nothing more.
• Signed OF Willie Harris to a minor league contract: He’s going to be a fourth or fifth outfielder if he even makes the team. Sounds like an appealing fantasy option, right?

New York Yankees

• Signed P Rafael Soriano: Clearly, it really was all about the money for Soriano. I discussed this signing earlier in the week (click here to view), so here’s a quick recap. He should have more value than the majority of setup men, as the Yankees could opt to give the 40-year-old Mariano Rivera a little additional time to rest. Still, for the majority of owners Soriano can now become an afterthought. The other ripple effect comes for Joba Chamberlain, who already has begun to have his name brought up in trade rumors for a starting pitcher.

Oakland Athletics

• Signed P Grant Balfour: It’s a nice signing for the A’s, though Balfour is not going to have much fantasy appeal. He will likely be one of the key setup men for Andrew Bailey. With his strikeout rate (10.23 over 273.2 major league innings and 9.11 for ’10), he is worth using in all formats that value middle men.
• Signed P Brian Fuentes: It didn’t take long for Balfour to go from the key setup man to seemingly the third in line. In the course of a few days the Athletics managed to turn their bullpen into one of the best in the league. Fuentes will be a great left-handed complement to Balfour, while also being the first in line if Andrew Bailey should get injured (187 career saves). He has some strikeout potential (career 9.82 K/9) and has had an ERA of 3.08 or lower in three of the past four years and four of the past six. If you are in a league that hordes closers, he’ll be worth owning as someone with potential to pick up some saves.

Philadelphia Phillies

• None

Pittsburgh Pirates

• None

Seattle Mariners

• Signed 2B Adam Kennedy to a minor league contract: The Mariners will open with Brendan Ryan at 2B, so a little security makes sense. Kennedy offers a little speed (34 SB over the past two seasons) but very little power (only three years of at least 10 HR and a career high of 13). He’ll only have sleeper value with regular playing time, but with Dustin Ackley waiting in the wings, that seems like a long shot, even if Ryan falters.

St. Louis Cardinals

• Signed P Ian Snell to a minor league contract: He’ll get an opportunity to win a rotation spot, and given the injury history of Kyle Lohse, there is reason to believe that he could get one before long. However, Snell is still living off his 2007 campaign that saw him post a 3.76 ERA and 1.33 WHIP (since then he has ERAs of 5.42, 4.84 and 6.41). Of course, we’ve all seen the miracles that the Cardinals have pulled with pitchers in the past, meaning Snell should be on everyone’s radars. He’s not really draftable but could become a solid waiver wire pick before long.
• Signed P Miguel Batista to a minor league contract: If he makes the Cardinals (which is likely), he’ll be a swing man seeing time as a spot starter and long man out of the bullpen. There’s nothing to see here.

San Diego Padres

• None

San Francisco Giants

• None

Tampa Bay Rays

• Signed P Kyle Farnsworth: He’s being brought in to set up and nothing more. He’s mediocre as it is and really isn’t worth considering in any format.

Texas Rangers

• None

Toronto Blue Jays

• None

Washington Nationals

• None

What are your thoughts on all these moves? Which will have the biggest fantasy impact? Do any of them change your thinking for the upcoming year?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

We all know that third base has quickly become one of the shallowest positions in baseball.  Outside of the top four options, there is a ton of risk involved. 

Yes, there are players with tremendous upside, but there are significant red flags hanging over them.  Let’s take a look at how I currently have the top 15 ranked (as well as top 12 for those in AL or NL-only formats, which can be found at the bottom of this post):

1. Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays
2. David Wright – New York Mets
3. Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals
4. Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees
5. Michael Young – Texas Rangers
6. Jose Bautista – Toronto Blue Jays
7. Adrian Beltre – Texas Rangers
8. Pedro Alvarez – Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Martin Prado – Atlanta Braves
10. Aramis Ramirez – Chicago Cubs
11. Pablo Sandoval – San Francisco Giants
12. Mark Reynolds – Baltimore Orioles
13. Casey McGehee – Milwaukee Brewers
14. Placido Polanco – Philadelphia Phillies
15. Juan Uribe – Los Angeles Dodgers

Thoughts:

• Adrian Beltre’s move to Texas helps keep his projections high thanks to the friendly confines, but he is still a big-time risk given his history.  We’ve seen it from him before where he posts a big season in his walk year only to regress after being given a fat contract.  I know he’s coming off a year where he hit .321 with 28 HR, 102 RBI and 84 R, but there is a lot of risk involved.  The power could certainly hold up, but the only other time he approached the average was in 2004 (his last year with the Dodgers).  A fall is likely so proceed with caution.
• Speaking of Beltre, his move to Texas sends Michael Young into more of a utility/DH/potentially 1B role.  He should continue to see every day at bats, but it is fair to be slightly concerned at this point.  The Rangers were in on Jim Thome and if they ultimately add a DH type of offensive force, things will get really interesting.  I’m leaving him where he is for now, but he certainly has the potential to fall in these rankings as we get closer to the season.
• Kevin Youkilis adds depth to the position, but since he does not have eligibility at 3B yet he is not included on the rankings.  If he was included, he’d easily be a top 5 option.
• I know it was a wild prediction, but I recently discussed the idea of Ryan Zimmerman outperforming Evan Longoria in 2011 (click here to read).  While that’s not likely, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Zimmerman emerge as the No. 2 third baseman in baseball by year’s end.  Had he not missed time due to injury he likely would’ve posted his second consecutive 30/100/100 season in 2010 (he was at 25/85/85 in 525 AB).  With the potential to hit .300+, there is an awful lot to like.
• Placido Polanco is an extremely nice player, but he doesn’t bring power (his high over the past six seasons is 10 HR) and he doesn’t bring speed (in the past seven seasons his high is seven SB).  He’s going to hit for a solid average, but he’s no lock to be over .300 (.285 and .298 the past two years).  Sure, he could score some runs if he stays in the No. 2 slot of the Phillies lineup, but it just isn’t enough.  He’s a perfect example of a player who is more valuable to his actually team than to fantasy owners. 
• Does anyone really expect Jose Bautista to replicate his 54 HR outburst?  I would find the low-to-mid 30s as being much more of a realistic expectation.
• Can Pablo Sandoval rebound?  The stories are already coming out about him shedding weight and being in great shape.  Can we really believe it?  Until we see it on the field it’s impossible to put any stock into the comments.  Consider him a risky pick, but one that can offer a pretty attractive reward.

AL/NL Only Rankings:

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Whose too high?  Whose too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Two years ago, fantasy owners looking for a sleeper second baseman (or, more accurately, a bounce-back candidate) may have taken a flyer on the Toronto Blue Jays’ Aaron Hill.  Those that did were rewarded handsomely, as he had a huge 2009 campaign:

682 AB, .286 average, 36 HR, 108 RBI, 103 R, 6 SB

Of course, those same owners felt bitter disappointment in 2010 when Hill followed up his impressive year with the following debacle:

528 AB, .205 average, 26 HR, 69 RBI, 70 R, 2 SB

We’ve already detailed what went wrong with Hill (click here to read), but the question is: Could another bounce back second baseman follow a similar path? 

Last season the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Kelly Johnson, who the Braves had thrown onto the scrap heap, had a huge year:

585 At Bats
.284 Batting Average (166 Hits)
26 Home Runs
71 RBI
93 Runs
13 Stolen Bases
.370 On Base Percentage
.496 Slugging Percentage
.339 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The comparison is not a perfect one, given the previous track record of Johnson, but the end-result could be the same.

Johnson had never shown the type of power he put on display in 2010. His previous career high was 16, set in 2007. He followed that up by hitting 20 HR combined in 2008 and 2009.

Is there a threat that Johnson takes his 2010 success and, while trying to top it, regress significantly? 

The fear should certainly be there. We saw it from Hill in 2010 as he went homer happy, posting a fly ball rate of 54.2 percent (after posting a 41.0 percent in 2009).

Last season Johnson posted a 38 percent fly ball mark and a 15.6 percent HR/FB. As it is, it is highly unlikely that Johnson repeats that HR/FB mark, which was by far his career high.  he only other time in his career that he eclipsed 10.3 percent was in 2005, when he had just 290 AB.

The BABIP was on the higher side, though he had shown that type of ability in the past (.328 in ’07, .340 in ’08). That’s not to say that it’s a given that he repeats it, however.  If that falls, as one would likely expect, and he can’t improve on his career worst strikeout rate (25.3 percent, though he has just about always been above 20 percent) his average is going to suffer.

A fall in average leads to a fall in OBP, which, in turn will likely lead to a fall in runs.  As you can see, it’s a snow ball effect.

I’m not going to say that it is a lock that Johnson has a crippling fall in production, much like Hill did. It would not be a surprise, however, to see him regress, with the threat of it being fairly significant.

The risk involved makes him a low-end option, at best, and more of a middle infielder in my book (I have him ranked at No. 12 in my most recent rankings, which you can view by clicking here). 

What about you? How would you rank Johnson?  Is he someone you would take as your starter?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

There were rumors all offseason long that the Red Sox could look to move Daisuke Matsuzaka, though at this point it does not appear likely.  Instead, Dice-K will again open the season as part of a deep Red Sox rotation with an awful lot to prove.

After a tremendous 2008 campaign (18 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), he has struggled tremendously. 

Granted, one could easily argue that his success was buoyed by significant luck, like a .267 BABIP and 80.6% strand rate, but the whiplash has been severe. 

He posted a 5.76 ERA over 59.1 innings in 2009 then put up the following line last season:

9 Wins
153.2 Innings
4.69 ERA
1.37 WHIP
133 Strikeouts (7.79 K/9)
74 Walks (4.33 BB/9)
.292 BABIP

He was actually a bit better than the numbers show, thanks to a 67.2% strand rate, but is that really enough?  Yes, he always has the allure of potential strikeouts, but they have been regressing since he debuted in 2007 with an 8.84 K/9. 

While his 7.79 mark from 2010 certainly isn’t poor, it is far from an elite mark.  It certainly isn’t enough to help offset all of the negatives.

The first problem is his control.  The scary thing, when you look at it, is that he has actually improved his control over the past three years:

• 2008 – 5.05 BB/9
• 2009 – 4.55 BB/9
• 2010 – 4.33 BB/9

If you have watched him pitch, the problem often is that he appears scared to challenge hitters.  Instead, he tries to make pitcher’s pitches every single time, no matter what the count is. 

The problem is that, if he doesn’t throw a strike, he is consistently putting runners on and digging himself a hole.

It makes it impossible for him to pitch to a quality WHIP and the potential to allow runs increases exponentially.

His work in the AL East is also concerning.  The Orioles (7.56 ERA), Rays (8.62 ERA) and Yankees (5.60 ERA) all torched him in 2010. 

The only team he pitched well against was the Blue Jays (3.71 ERA), but with the fire power they have it is no guarantee that he can replicate that. 

Maybe their free-swinging ways helped him (only six walks in 26.2 innings), but that clearly is the exception, not the rule.

Yet another problem could be his inability to generate groundballs.  In 2010, he posted a 33.0% groundball rate, compared to a 21.6% line drive rate and a 45.5% fly ball rate. 

If he had enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, his groundball rate would be second lowest in the league behind only Ted Lilly (29.5%).  His fly ball rate would have been the sixth highest and the line drive rate would have been the third highest.

Why is that noteworthy?  Because his HR/FB rate was just 6.5% in 2010.  The idea of seeing Matsuzaka giving up significantly more home runs, further hurting his ERA potential, is extremely high.

We all know that Matsuzaka has plenty of upside potential, but over the past few years he has given us plenty of reasons to be concerned. 

Could he pitch like a fantasy ace at times?  Possibly, but with the way he works he is never going to be able to post an elite WHIP. 

He just doesn’t challenge hitters enough, generating walk after walk after walk.

You also have to be concerned about the division he plays in, as well as the potential for a significant number of balls to start finding their way over the fence.  Is he a pitcher you could draft?  Yes, but do so only as a back-end starter/bench option.

What are your thoughts on Matsuzaka?  Is he a pitcher you’d draft?  Why or why not?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Dan Uggla tends to be a rather polarizing player.  The people who like him really, really like him. 

The people who are not as high on him may not “hate” him, per se, but they devalue him based on the potential for a low average. 

The question is: are some people underappreciating the skill set that Uggla brings to the table?

Before we can fully answer that question, let’s take a look at what he accomplished in 2010:

589 At Bats
.287 Batting Average (169 Hits)
33 Home Runs
105 RBI
100 Runs
4 Stolen Bases
.369 On Base Percentage
.508 Slugging Percentage
.330 Batting Average on Balls in Play

It is clear that the power he showed is extremely realistic.  Over the past four seasons he’s posted years of 31, 32, 31 and 33.  You just don’t get that type of consistency from most players. 

Now in Atlanta, is it possible that he gets a little bit of an uptick in his power production? 

Let’s take a look at how he’s produced at Turner Field the past few years:

• 2008 – 31 AB, .484, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 12 R, 1 SB
• 2009 – 34 AB, .353, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 7 R, 0 SB
• 2010 – 35 AB, .343, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 5 R, 0 SB

Those numbers are certainly encouraging and helps make you believe that his numbers across the board could improve.

Over the past three years, he has hit a home run once every 14.3 AB at Turner Field.  In 2010 he was at a home run once every 17.8 AB. 

In other words, yes, he could easily see a slight increase in home run production, though I wouldn’t expect it to be by a huge amount.

If you think he is suddenly going to become a 40-45-plus home run hitter, it’s not likely going to happen.  I could easily see him hitting in the 36-37 range, however, but that’s about it.

So the power is likely going to remain consistent, with the potential for a little bit of improvement.  He also could easily maintain his RBI total from ’10, as he will be hitting in the middle of the Braves lineup along with Jason Heyward and Brian McCann.

Assuming he is hitting fifth, the runs will likely fall.  Still, you have to think that he’ll be in the 85-plus range, more than enough to be considered usable.  In 2010, there were only six second basemen who had at least 80 runs scored (five of whom actually reached 100).

The major question comes with his average, with which he has struggled in the past.  Last season he posted a solid mark, though it came courtesy of a lucky BABIP.  In fact, since his debut in 2006 he has traded strong years with poor years:

• 2006 – .282 (.309 BABIP)
• 2007 – .245 (.279 BABIP)
• 2008 – .260 (.320 BABIP)
• 2009 – .243 (.274 BABIP)
• 2010 – .287 (.330 BABIP)

What makes us think that he’s going to replicate a .280 average?  The problem is that he could just as easily regress to .250 or worse, as he has consistently shown throughout his career. 

When you strike out over 25 percent of the time (he’s at 26.0 percent for his career, though has had a year as poor as 32.2 percent), you always run that risk.  If the luck isn’t there, his average is going to suffer.

Put it all together and you get the following projection from me for 2011:

.263 (151-575), 34 HR, 90 RBI, 90 R, 3 SB, .299 BABIP, .356 OBP, .496 SLG

If he didn’t strike out quite as much, there wouldn’t be a debate about Uggla (my projection has him with a 26.09 percent strikeout rate).  It would just be a given that he was one of the elite players in the game.

But the strikeouts are always going to hang over him, allowing people to knock him down a notch or two.

However, the power alone makes him a top five option at a weaker position.  He’s consistently proven that he us a 30-plus home run hitter and, now that he is in Atlanta, he could even improve on that mark. 

I can understand being scared off based on the average (at least the potential for a poor average), but as long as he hits .260 or better, he’s not going to hurt you there. 

Don’t be scared off; he’s a player to target in all formats.

Which side of the fence do you fall on when it comes to Uggla?  Is he a player you love or hate?  Why do you feel as you do?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com