Kuzul

There has been some significant movement in our starting pitcher rankings since we originally checked in on them. 

The most glaring change was due to Zack Greinke’s trade to the Brewers, but that’s certainly not all. Let’s take a look at how things currently look:

1. Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies
2. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
3. Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants
4. Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox
5. Adam Wainwright – St. Louis Cardinals
6. CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
7. Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies
8. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Zack Greinke – Milwaukee Brewers
10. Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels
11. Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers
12. Ubaldo Jimenez – Colorado Rockies
13. Josh Johnson – Florida Marlins
14. Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins
15. Chris Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
16. Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers
17. Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
18. Clay Buchholz – Boston Red Sox
19. Mat Latos – San Diego Padres
20. Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves
21. Dan Haren – Los Angeles Angels
22. Roy Oswalt – Philadelphia Phillies
23. Colby Lewis – Texas Rangers
24. David Price – Tampa Bay Rays
25. Ricky Nolasco – Florida Marlins
26. Brett Anderson – Oakland Athletics
27. Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants
28. Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers
29. Matt Garza – Tampa Bay Rays
30. Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox

Thoughts:

• I know seeing Colby Lewis over David Price seems odd, but I took a detailed look into why I prefer him earlier this week.  Check it out by clicking here.
• Some people are going to be higher than I am on Matt Cain.  I fear a regression in his BABIP (.260) and control (2.46 BB/9 compared to a 3.37 career BB/9), meaning a rather sizable jump in his WHIP (1.08) could be in store for him.  Yes, he has improved his control for three straight years, but sooner or later, the trend is going to stop.  It’s not to say that he’s a bad option, I just prefer the other options more.  I’ll be taking a look at my projection for Cain in the near future.
• Since the last time we looked at the rankings Zack Greinke has been dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers, significantly helping his value.  You have to think that he’ll have a higher win upside, while also potentially seeing a bump in strikeouts and a decrease in ERA and WHIP thanks to leaving the DH behind (and facing generally easier lineups).  The former Cy Young Award winner was a Top 20 option prior to the deal but now cracks the Top 10.  For more on the deal, click here. 
• Adam Wainwright or CC Sabathia?  It’s virtually a coin flip and, despite pitching for the Yankees, Sabathia does call the harder division home.  When pitchers are as close as they are, I’d generally side with the NL option.
• Josh Beckett’s inclusion may be a bit of a surprise, given how poorly he pitched in 2010.  However, he struggled with luck (.349 BABIP) and we all know how good he has the potential to be.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him perform like a Top 15 pitcher at year’s end, would it?  (For more on his 2010 struggles, click here)
• I know some people want to consider Felix Hernandez the top starting pitcher in the league, but I just can’t do it.  Halladay has an edge in both wins and WHIP, while the two will likely be close in the ERA department.  While Hernandez may strike out a few more, is it enough to overcome Halladay’s other advantages?  I don’t think so.  (For a more detailed comparison, click here)
• I know people are worried about Latos’ workload in 2010, but any pitcher carries a bit of a risk with him.  No one knows for sure how his body will respond, as it’s the same question we’ve had with Tim Lincecum since he entered the league (and how has that turned out?).  With his strikeout rate (9.21 K/9 in ’10 vs. 10.55 over his minor league career), control (2.44 B/9 in ’10 vs. 2.30 over his minor league career) and the benefit of pitching in Petco Park, you have to like his potential to excel once again.
• Josh Johnson certainly is one of the best starting pitcher options in the league, but he falls just short of the Top 12 for me.  Don’t overlook the fact that he benefited from a 79.2% strand rate and increased his strikeout rate be nearly one K per nine innings (8.22 vs. 9.11).  I know he’s certainly improved since his minor league days, but his K/9 coming up was just 7.41.  There’s a good chance he regresses there, which certainly will hurt his potential value.  I wouldn’t suggest a return to his minor league numbers, but potentially back to the low-to-mid 8.0 range.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Whose too high?  Whose too low?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Once upon a time Brian Roberts was among the elite second basemen in the game.  Doesn’t that feel like decades ago at this point?  Even before injuries limited him to just 59 games in 2010, Roberts’ star had lost a bit of its shine.

Just look at his stolen base totals in recent years:

• 2007 – 50 SB
• 2008 – 40 SB
• 2009 – 30 SB
• 2010 – 12 SB

The fact that it was back problems that limited him in ’10 only adds to the concern.  Will the injuries continue to plague him and stop him from running as much as he did in the past?  Obviously, without a significant number of stolen bases his value is going to plummet.

Stolen bases aren’t the only source of value for Roberts, though it is probably the biggest.  From 2007-2009 he scored at least 103 runs every season (topping out at 110 in 2009).  How many did he score last season?  Just 28…

The Orioles have made several significant additions this offseason in an attempt to add some life to their offense.  Among those added were Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee and J.J. Hardy, all with the potential to drive in plenty of runs (despite their various other flaws).  When you add them in with Nick Markakis, Luke Scott, Matt Wieters and others, you have to think that they will be able to score.

The real question is if Roberts will be able to get on base enough to benefit from it.  A .283 career hitter, he hit .278 during his limited run in 2010.  However, if the back injury hurts his speed, will he be able to continually enjoy a BABIP of .315 or better?  If the speed is not quite what it once was, it wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see his average slip.

That means, of the three things he once brought to the table, there is a fairly big risk that he regresses in all of them.  Sound promising yet?

Only twice has Roberts hit over 12 home runs in a season.  With a career HR/FB of 5.5 percent, it actually seems more likely that he hits fewer than 10 home runs then seeing him even come close to his career high of 18 (done in 2005).

As far as RBI go, only twice in his career has he eclipsed 60.  That really shouldn’t come as a surprise, as batting leadoff just doesn’t lend itself to RBI opportunities.  If you are thinking he can help you there, you need to think again.

Obviously, Roberts has proven in the past that he can be among the best second basemen in the league, but those days are likely behind him.  He was relatively unproductive upon returning from a back injury in 2010 (.278, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 28 R, 12 SB in 230 AB) and there certainly is reason to be skeptical of him returning to his glory days.  At 33 years old, they simply could be behind him.

Is Roberts usable?  Absolutely, but with the risk he brings with him he should be considered a low-end option, at best.

What are your thoughts of Roberts?  How good could he be in 2011?  Is he someone you would target on draft day?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

There are times that fantasy writers will make a bold statement or reach for a player in a mock draft in order to simply make a point.  As unrealistic as it may seem, they want to hammer it home how strongly they feel about a particular player.

That’s not something that I do and this isn’t one of those times. 

If I had a choice between David Price and Colby Lewis, I would make the same selection every single time, whether it be a mock draft or a real draft.

I would rather own Colby Lewis

Before you get all excited and rip me for what most will think is a rather bold statement, let’s take a look at the two players and show you where my thought process comes from:

(Side Note: Basically what this actually comes down to is that I won’t be drafting Price based on his current ADP.  According to Mock Draft Central Price has an ADP of 49.34 vs. Lewis’ 172.19.  In reality I don’t have to select Lewis before Price, and I wouldn’t.  I simply would let Price go off the board and get Lewis several rounds later.)

David Price

He’s the more highly touted of the two, which I think helps to skew people’s belief that he is clearly the better option of the two. The former first overall pick certainly made strides in 2010, posting the following line:

19 Wins
208.2 Innings
2.72 ERA
1.19 WHIP
188 Strikeouts (8.11 K/9)
79 Walks (3.41 BB/9)
.279 BABIP

He had tremendous value a year ago, but one of the numbers we can easily throw out and that’s the wins. 

First of all, we all know that it is a category that we can’t depend on from year-to-year. They are impossible to predict and, even if Price could replicate his overall success, it’s highly unlikely that he can maintain that type of win level in 2011.

At this point, you have to think that the Rays bullpen will be extremely less effective than it was in 2010. It was significantly depleted due to free agency with names like Rafael Soriano (though there is an off chance he returns), Joaquin Benoit, Randy Chote, Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour (he’s still a free agent) and Chad Qualls (he’s still a free agent) all likely gone. 

Even if Price leaves with a lead, is there a guarantee that the new bullpen can hold it? In 2010, he had 15 starts of less than seven innings, nearly half of his outings. That’s a significant number of outs to ask for your bullpen to get and seeing a few leads slip away would not be surprising.

You also have to take into account that the Rays just likely won’t be as good overall. Their offense was hit hard with the departures of Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, so they may not be able to score enough runs to keep up with the Yankees, Red Sox or Blue Jays.

Unfortunately, that’s not the only number that may see a regression. He posted a BABIP of .279 and a strand rate of 78.5%, both marks that could regress in 2011.

Assuming the control stays the same (and it’s certainly not an elite number), that’s going to inflate the WHIP and ERA.

Not to mention, Price dominated the Red Sox (2-1, 2.61 ERA in two starts), Orioles (2-0, 0.61 ERA in two starts) and Blue Jays (4-0, 0.58 ERA in four starts) in 2010. Can we really anticipate those types of numbers within the division once again? Those are teams that we all know can score runs, so seeing them beat up on Price a little bit in ’11 would not be surprising.

Price should absolutely be a good pitcher again in 2011, just not quite up to the level he pitched to in 2010. 

He is a Top 25 pitcher, for sure, but what’s to say that Lewis isn’t as well?

Colby Lewis

There isn’t much history to go on with Lewis, having spent the past few seasons over in Japan. However, in his first year back since 2007, Lewis was very impressive:

12 Wins
201.0 Innings
3.72 ERA
1.19 WHIP
196 Strikeouts (8.78 K/9)
65 Walks (2.91 BB/9)
.292 BABIP

 A lot of people want to point to a second half regression as reason to be skeptical:

• First Half – 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.58 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, .267 BABIP in 110.2 IP
• Second Half – 4.18 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.09 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, .324 BABIP in 90.1 IP

There are a couple of potential explanations for the falloff.

You could take the stance that the league was able to figure him out, meaning he will be unable to come close to his first half success again; you also could believe that maybe he tired in the second half, due to the innings load and the difference in work in the U.S. compared to Japan.

Honestly, neither may be accurate. Keep in mind that he actually improved both his strikeout and walk rates in the second half. Luck certainly had something to do with his regression (you also could say that he was lucky in the first half). 

Either way, his overall luck metrics were believable making his overall line believable. The old adage is baseball is a game of averages and Lewis’ season is a prime example. He was lucky in the first half and unlucky in the second, but overall things looked reasonable.

He showed better control then Price in ’10, which easily could lead to a better WHIP. 

He showed a better strikeout rate then Price. Maybe this is an aberration but, at worst, you would have to think that the two enter 2011 on an even playing field.

He pitches in a division that has the A’s, Angels and Mariners, far from the high-powered offenses that call the AL East home. He likely has a better team behind him, meaning that he could have more wins upside even on days that he pitches poorly.

There really is an awful lot to like. 

Conclusion

The two pitchers are a lot closer than many people want to believe. As I said, I lean towards Lewis due to his:

• Strikeout potential (he showed in the second half he could strikeout over a batter per inning)
• Potential better control (which could lead to a better WHIP)
• Easier division
• Potentially better team

When push comes to shove, I’m going Lewis every time. There’s just too much potential for him to build on his 2010 campaign, while Price easily could go in the other direction.

That’s not to say that I can’t understand why people prefer Price. He has an extremely high upside and, at 25 years old, certainly has the room to significantly improve.

I actually have them back-to-back on my updated pitcher rankings (to be released this week), so there is definitely room for debate.

Lewis is far from old at 31-years old, however and just looks to have a higher upside for 2011. In keeper leagues, things are obviously different, but for just one season, I don’t see it as outlandish to think Lewis will have the better season.

What about you? Which of these two pitchers would you pick? Why?

Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It seems like at this time for the past few years we’ve had the same discussion about the potential breakout candidacy of Justin Masterson. 

The underlying metrics scream that he could be a successful, under-the-radar option for fantasy owners, yet he has consistently failed miserably. 

The 2010 season was no different, having posted the following line:

6 Wins
180.0 Innings
4.70 ERA
1.50 WHIP
140 Strikeouts (7.00 K/9)
73 Walks (3.65 BB/9)
.332 BABIP

So, when do we finally write-off his “potential” and just accept the fact that the 25-year old (he’ll be 26 by Opening Day) will simply is never going to live up to our hopes?  If you ask me, we’re not quite there yet.

Yes, the overall numbers were bad, but there are several reasons to believe that, sooner or later, he is going to figure it out and post a solid season.  First of all is the luck, which is obvious when we look at the numbers above.

Of pitchers who threw at least 170 innings in 2010, Masterson’s mark was the seventh worst.  Of pitcher’s to throw at least 300 innings over the past two years, Masterson’s .328 (he posted a BABIP of .321in 2009) is sixth worst in the league. 

To make matters worse, he Masterson has also suffered from below average strand rates the past two years (68.6% and 66.6%).  Sooner or later we have to think that the luck is going to improve, don’t we? 

Even if you want to ignore the luck components, there is little questioning that Masterson has the skill to succeed.  In 2010 he posted a 59.9% groundball rate, second only to Tim Hudson (64.1%). 

I know he didn’t show excellent control last season, but he does have it.  Over his minor league career, he posted a BB/9 of 2.28. 

Granted, he has now thrown more innings in the major leagues then he did in the minors (he has a major league walk rate of 3.92) and his time spent in the minors was more skewed to the lower levels (only 9.1 innings pitched at Triple-A).  Still, there is hope that he improves on the walk rate.

He showed that potential in September, when he posted a 0.86 BB/9 over 21.0 innings of work (6 appearances, 2 of which were starts).  Overall in the second half he went 3-5 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.  He also posted a BB/9 of 3.00 in his 75.0 innings of work.

You couple good control with an elite level groundball rate and there is an awful lot to like.  When you throw in a little bit of strikeout potential (career mark of 7.41 K/9, right along the lines of his minor league career mark of 7.45) and there really is no reason not to take a flier on him late in your drafts.

He potentially brings the trio of skills that you look for from pitchers:

1. Groundball Rate
2. Control
3. Strikeouts

Luck is something that no one can do anything about, but Masterson has the potential to maintain his elite groundball rate and supplement it with good control and strikeout ability (as he showed late in 2010). 

Assuming the luck finally goes in his favor, seeing him match his second-half numbers would be a baseline number.  He would even have the potential to outperform them.

Obviously I wouldn’t invest highly on him, but at the end of your draft he certainly is worth stashing in deeper formats.

What are your thoughts of Masterson?  Could this be the year that he finally puts it together?  Would you take a late round flier on him?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Obviously, when you are drafting for a keeper league, things are a little bit different than if you are drafting simply for one year.  You need to think not just for 2011, but potentially 2012 and beyond (depending on your format).  Let’s take a look at how that changes things for our rankings:

1. Joe Mauer – Minnesota Twins
2. Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians
3. Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants
4. Brian McCann – Atlanta Braves
5. Victor Martinez – Detroit Tigers
6. Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles
7. Geovany Soto – Chicago Cubs
8. Miguel Montero – Arizona Diamondbacks
9. J.P. Arencibia – Toronto Blue Jays
10. Kurt Suzuki – Oakland Athletics
11. Chris Iannetta – Colorado Rockies
12. Mike Napoli – Los Angeles Angels
13. Jesus Montero – New York Yankees
14. Devin Mesoraco – Cincinnati Reds
15. Jorge Posada – New York Yankees

Thoughts:

• While McCann is a great catching option, both Carlos Santana and Buster Posey have the potential to pass him, even in yearly leagues, by the end of 2011.  Having never scored more than 68 runs in a season, McCann has a fairly big strike against him. 
• Victor Martinez should get a renewed sense of value thanks to spending significant time as the DH in Detroit.  Still, I’ve constantly called Santana “the next Victor Martinez” so in long-term keeper leagues it is hard not to consider him (and Posey for that matter) a better option.  Martinez is just 32 years old, so he should have a few more years of quality production, keeping him among the better options as long as he maintains catching eligibility.  With Alex Avila starting, it would be surprising to see him not get 20+ games a year behind the plate for the foreseeable future. (The debate between Santana and Posey is one for another day, however.)
• Arencibia has as much power as anyone and now, with regular playing time, should develop into a player similar to Mike Napoli.  As long as the Blue Jays play him regularly, he should be a solid option moving forward.  The potential problem is his average, but after the first grouping of options, the majority of catchers also have that concern.
• The reason Montero is not slotted higher on this list is two-fold.  One, there are significant questions on if he stays behind the plate long term.  Second, with the signing of Russell Martin, there’s a good chance his exposure to the major leagues in 2011 is minimal.  He’ll likely make his debut at some point and, if he does stick behind the plate, could be one of the elite catching bats in the game.  That makes him worth stashing in all keeper leagues, but you don’t want to draft him as your starter because you may get nothing out of him this season.
• Mesoraco’s name may be a bit of a surprise on this list, but he has the chance to emerge in 2010 if he can get his glove in order (10 passed balls and four errors in 18 games in the Arizona Fall League).  The Reds didn’t get much offense from behind the plate in 2010 and his .302, 26 HR, 75 RBI line would certainly play well at Great American Ballpark.
• Like Montero, there are questions if Will Myers will be able to stay behind the plate.  That certainly knocks him down a peg, as does the fact that he won’t reach the majors until late 2012 or 2013, most likely.  If you are in a long-term dynasty league things are different, but for now I have to leave him off this list.
• There are numerous players that could’ve been selected for the final spot on the rankings including Josh Thole, Hank Conger and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, among others.  There really is no clear-cut option that shines through at this point.  That’s why, at that point in the draft, I’d much rather take one year of Jorge Posada and worry about getting one of the other options for depth later on.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Chris Johnson burst onto the fantasy baseball scene in 2010 for the Houston Astros.  Playing 3B, among the shallowest positions, he caught fire in the second half helping to carry many to fantasy glory.  Overall, he had the following line:

362 At Bats
.308 Batting Average (105 Hits)
11 Home Runs
52 RBI
40 Runs
3 Stolen Bases
.337 On Base Percentage
.481 Slugging Percentage
.387 Batting Average on Balls in Play

It is obvious that the average came courtesy of some significant luck, something that just isn’t likely to continue.  He posted a 26.7% strikeout rate in 2010, a number that could be slightly high considering he posted an 18.8% rate.  However, over parts of three seasons at Triple-A (634 AB), his strikeout rate was 21.77%. 

Yes, you would expect him to improve upon last season’s mark given his track record, but it isn’t as high as you would necessarily think.  He simply isn’t a .300+ hitter, and it is far more likely that he comes in at around .270.

The power he showed is another number that fantasy owners should be concerned with.  Yes, there is nothing that is out of the ordinary in his metrics (34.6% fly ball rate, 12.5% HR/FB), but given his track record, it is simply impossible to think he can maintain the pace he set.

His time at Triple-A was spent in the Pacific Coast League, notorious for hitters to put up monstrous power totals.  Yet, Johnson managed to hit just 22 HR while there.  Over his minor league career (1,681 AB) he managed just 49 HR.

Just look at the HR/AB numbers:

• Minor League Career – 1 HR every 34.3 AB
• Triple-A – 1 HR every 28.8 AB
• Major Leagues (2010) – 1 HR every 32.9 AB

Obviously, there is nothing unrealistic about what he showed, but it certainly would’ve been nice to have seen him rake a bit more during his time in the minor leagues.  He also didn’t show excessive power at home, despite the favorable home ballpark (six of his 11 HR came at home).  At this point, there is little reason to think that he is going to be anything more than what he has shown in the power department, meaning we are looking at someone who is going to hit 15-20 HR over a full season.

He will likely be slotted into the middle of the Astros lineup, having spent an equal amount of time hitting fifth, sixth and seventh in 2010.  That will give him opportunities to drive in some runs, but he is not going to be a good source of runs scored.

You put it all together and get the following projection for 2011:

.272 (143-525), 16 HR, 75 RBI, 60 R, 5 SB, .327 BABIP, .310 OBP, .429 SLG

Those are fine numbers, but nothing that makes him overly attractive even at a weak position.  Basically, don’t get overly excited based on a few hot weeks towards the end of the season.  He doesn’t bring enough to the table to justify using him in shallower formats and as anything more than a corner infielder in deeper formats.

What are your thoughts on Johnson?  What type of production do you see him posting in 2011?  Is he someone you would target in your drafts?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Over the past two years, Brandon Webb has thrown a grand total of four innings in the major leagues.  However, in 2011 he will attempt to fill the void in the Texas Rangers’ rotation created by Cliff Lee packing his bags and heading to Philadelphia.

Prior to his injury problems, Webb was one of the elite players in the game. 

He was the elite groundball pitcher, with a career groundball rate of 64.2 percent.  Yes, the Ballpark in Arlington is known as a hitter’s park, but if Webb is able to regain this type of form, it is not going to matter.  Generating groundball after groundball with a good defensive team behind him (especially with the likely addition of Adrian Beltre), success will be there.

Prior to the injury, Webb was also a solid strikeout pitcher. 

He was far from elite, but he was always in the 6.76 to 7.39 range.  With a fastball averaging around 88 miles per hour, you can’t expect anything more than it. 

In fact, you may see a slight regression.  Assuming he can re-create the groundball rate, the falloff shouldn’t matter much.

The real issue is his control. 

From 2005-2008 his walks per nine innings ranged from 1.91 to 2.74.  Having pitched sparingly over the past two seasons, this is one thing that you have to be concerned about not coming back all the way.

If his control comes back fully, he should be the same pitcher that he has always been, regardless of the ballpark or the league he plays in.  We’ll take a much more in-depth look at Webb in the coming weeks, but there really is no way to draw any definite conclusions given his lengthy absence.  It is just impossible to answer the two main questions without seeing him on a mound:

1. Will his groundball rate remain elite
2. Will he be able to consistently throw strikes

Just like for the Rangers, Webb will be a high-risk, high-reward option for fantasy owners. 

While he’s not going to be worth a high-round selection, in the mid-to-late rounds there is no reason not to roll the dice on him.  While he may not pan out, you also may be getting a SP1 in the process.

What are your thoughts of Webb?  Is he worth the gamble?  Why or why not?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Once one of the weaker positions in the league, second base has seen an increase in talent in recent years and there is more talent yet to come. 

Let’s take a look at how the rankings currently stand, though by year’s end there is the potential that the list will look drastically different:

1. Robinson Cano – New York Yankees
2. Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies
3. Dustin Pedroia – Boston Red Sox
4. Ian Kinsler – Texas Rangers
5. Dan Uggla – Atlanta Braves
6. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds
7. Martin Prado – Atlanta Braves
8. Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers
9. Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
10. Aaron Hill – Toronto Blue Jays
11. Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles
12. Kelly Johnson – Arizona Diamondbacks
13. Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox
14. Howie Kendrick – Los Angeles Angels
15. Chone Figgins – Seattle Mariners

Thoughts:

• I recently gave my thoughts on Gordon Beckham, which you can check out by clicking here.  The bottom line with him is that there is some risk involved, but he came on strong in the second half and should be a good buy as a middle infielder or low-risk option.
• On mlb.com (click here for the article), the Brewers’ new manager, Ron Roenicke, was recently quoted as saying, “At times, you’re going to say, ‘Why are you running so much? Why are you getting thrown out trying to take extra bases?’”  That brings hope for Rickie Weeks potentially reaching the 20/20 plateau, something that was basically impossible under the old regime as they rarely were active on the base paths.  It certainly gives him a boost up in our rankings.
• Since the last time I did the rankings, Uggla has been dealt to Atlanta.  It certainly doesn’t change his value much in either direction.  Joining Brian McCann and Jason Heyward in the middle of the order, it’s very possible he will exceed 30 home runs for the fifth straight season (almost a given) while going 90/90 as well.
• Speaking of Atlanta, Martin Prado will be shifting to the outfield while maintaining his eligibility at 2B and 3B (and 1B if you play in a league that only requires 5 games played for eligibility).  You have to love that type of flexibility.
• There are several young second basemen who could make an impact in 2011 including Dustin Ackley (click here for my thoughts), Brett Lawrie (click here for my thoughts) and Jason Kipnis (click here for my thoughts).

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Many owners prefer to wait until the tail end of their drafts to fill their catching position.  While I may not necessarily be in favor of it (something we will discuss at a later date), let’s take a look at a few options who may be available in your draft after Round 18 (an ADP of 216 or later according to Mock Draft Central) and are certainly worth targeting:

Chris Iannetta – Colorado Rockies

We’ve long heard about his potential, yet the Rockies have continued to find reasons not to use him on a regular basis.  The 2010 campaign was no different, as a poor start to the season (.133, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R through April 24) led to a demotion to Triple-A.  Of course, those numbers came courtesy of a .118 BABIP, but who cares about that, right?

Yes, he struggled with making contact in April (36.7 percent), but upon his return to the majors he was significantly better there (24.0 percent).  The fact of the matter is that the Rockies showed impatience with a player that they have rarely afforded an opportunity to grow into his role (in the minor leagues he impressed by hitting .349 with 5 HR and 21 RBI over 63 AB).

However, as we head toward 2011 it appears that the Rockies have no other option but to turn full-time duties over to him.  With Miguel Olivo no longer in Colorado, Iannetta joins Michael McKenry (8 AB), Jose Morales (158 AB), Jordan Pacheco (0 AB) and Wilin Rosario (0 AB) as the catchers on the 40-man roster.  Clearly, Iannetta is the man at this point.

Over the past three years he has posted HR/FB of 18.2 percent, 14.0 percent and 14.1 percent, so there is little questioning his power.  With regular playing time he easily could surpass 20 HR. 

With improved luck and a consistent strikeout rate of around 24.0 percent (as he showed after April of ’10), you are looking at a player who should also hit around .260.  His numbers may not be far worse than Mike Napoli, who his going over 100 picks, on average, before him.

J.P. Arencibia – Toronto Blue Jays

He burst onto the scene in 2010 (4-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R on August 7 against Tampa Bay), though did little after that.  In fact, the Blue Jays seemed to try and shy away from playing him on a regular basis (35 AB in the majors). 

In 2011 that should all change.  With incumbent John Buck now in Florida, the other option they have is Jose Molina (with a career .236 average and 26 HR in 1,616 AB).  Clearly, Arencibia is going to be given every opportunity to claim the job as his own.

Yes, you can point towards his 2010 Triple-A success and say it was due to being in the Pacific Coast League, but .301 with 32 HR, 85 RBI and 76 R over 412 AB speaks for itself.  The power is 100 percent for real, as he has shown it throughout his minor league career (83 HR in 1,616 AB).

The one concern is his ability to make contact.  At the major league level he posted a 31.4 percent strikeout rate, but that is an extremely small sample size.  At Triple-A he was at 20.6 percent, and while that should increase over a full major league season, there is no reason to think that it will be above 25 to 26 percent, most likely.

With his power, that is still going to mean a fine average, especially from a catcher (.260ish or so).  With the type of power potential he has, that certainly is more than enough.  In a high-powered offense, he should also chip in some RBI making him a solid option to use in all formats.

What are your thoughts on these two catchers?  Would you target either of them late in your drafts?  If not them, who would you target?

Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

Top 15 Catchers
Top 15 First Basemen
Top 15 Second Basemen
Top 15 Third Basemen
Top 15 Shortstops
Top 30 Outfielders
Top 20 Starting Pitchers
Top 15 Closers
2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

As we head towards our fantasy drafts for 2011, there’s a debate raging as to who should be the first pitcher off the board. 

Sure, you may get the occasional person who prefers Tim Lincecum, but for most the decision comes down to the 2010 Cy Young Award winners: Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez.

Who should be the first pitcher off the board on draft day? Let’s break it down category-by-category and see:

Strikeouts

The hope was that, by moving to the NL, Halladay could see a significant increase in strikeouts; however, he kept the status quo instead. In 2008 & 2009, he had rates of 7.54 and 7.83 while pitching for the Blue Jays.

There were dreams of an 8.00 mark, maybe even 8.50; instead, we got 7.86.

He does throw a significant number of innings year in and year out, however. Since 2006 he has thrown at least 220 innings a year, topping out at 250.2 innings in 2010.

With that number of innings and the rate he posted, he’s a lock for 200 K.

Hernandez, meanwhile, is a little bit more electric. He, too, throws a lot of innings (249.2 in 2010 after 238.2 in 2009), but does so with a more impressive strikeout rate. The worst mark of his career was 7.80 in 2007, topping out at 8.36 last season.

It helped lead to 232 K, a number that he easily could match in 2011.

At this point in his career, it is hard to imagine Halladay improving dramatically in the strikeout department. However, Hernandez has already proven that he is the slightly better strikeout artist and, at 24 years old, he could still be getting better.

Edge – Hernandez

Wins

It is never recommended that you draft a pitcher based on wins, but when people are close, it should factor into your decision.

The Mariners look to be one of the bottom-feeders in the AL West, with wins and runs tough to come by. Hernandez can throw eight shutout innings, only to see the bullpen allow a run in the ninth inning and take a no decision or even a loss. 

He won just 13 games in 2010 and they could once again be difficult to come by; Halladay, meanwhile, pitches for one of the elite teams in the NL, at least on paper. 

Obviously, the game is not played on paper, but with two 20+ win seasons in the past three, he clearly has the edge.

Edge – Halladay

WHIP

In 2010, Halladay posted a 1.04 mark to Hernandez’ 1.06. No matter how we slice it, whichever player you pick is going to bring with him a potentially elite WHIP.

Halladay’s mark came courtesy of a .298 BABIP, so there certainly is even room for improvement there. What he possesses, however, is elite control: In 2010 he posted a BB/9 of 1.08. Since 2005, he has only posted a BB/9 of higher than 1.43 once (a 1.92 BB/9 in 2007). 

With those types of marks, there is no reason to think that he is going to post anything but an elite WHIP once again in 2011.

Hernandez has good control (2.52 BB/9 in ’10), but not quite as sparkling as Halladay’s. Couple that with a .273 BABIP, and there is reason to believe that his WHIP is going to rise in 2011. 

He easily could regress in the BABIP, and while his WHIP should be solid, Halladay has the advantage thanks to his other worldly control.

Edge – Halladay

ERA

Yes, Roy Halladay pitches in a hitter’s park, but he proved in 2010 that it shouldn’t be a concern. In 131.2 innings at home, he pitched to a 2.32 ERA. Overall, he sported a 2.44 ERA, the second best season of his career. 

You have to think that the move out of the AL East and into the NL East certainly helped him there. 

Yes, there could be a regression thanks to an 82.7% strand rate, but with elite control and a sparkling WHIP, he is a virtual lock that he posts a sub-3.00 ERA.

Felix Hernandez was spectacular, posting a 2.27 ERA in 2010. His mark came courtesy of a much more realistic strand rate of 77.4%, only marginally better than the 76.7% marks he had posted each of the past two seasons. 

The problem could be that, if his BABIP does regress even a little bit, his ERA will likely suffer slightly thanks to more runners on base.

Is he going to be among the best in the league? Absolutely. Is he going to be sub-2.50 again? I’m not so sure.

Edge – Draw

Conclusion

The fact of the matter is, when you are picking between these two pitchers you are picking between two of the elite players in the game. 

Between the two, however, I would lean towards Halladay. The fact that he’s in the NL gives him a slight edge off the bat, but with his control, there’s a good chance that he could be a better option in both the ERA and WHIP departments.

Hernandez does have the strikeout advantage and is only a small step behind Halladay in the other two categories (if he is even behind him at all), but it’s more than enough for me. 

What about you? Which pitcher would you prefer to draft? Why?

Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com