Kuzul

The Red Sox made some stunning moves at the trade deadline, effectively throwing in the towel on the 2014 season.

Two months later, it’s time to take a look back and see how the deals look like with some hindsight. While the overall evaluations of the moves won’t be able to be fully judged until at least after 2015, there’s already been some clarity on how the moves will turn out.

Unlike most teams throwing in the towel and starting a rebuilding effort, Boston focused on acquiring major-league pieces that could help the team turn its fortunes around and pursue a fourth World Series title since 2004 in 2015.

All in all, the team made four deals at the deadline, shipping out total major-leaguers Stephen Drew, Andrew Miller, John Lackey and Jon Lester.

A few days prior to the deadline, the club also sent struggling starting pitcher Jake Peavy to the San Francisco Giants. That’s worked out wonderfully for the Giants, as Peavy has been an important component of the rotation who has helped vault San Francisco into the playoff race. The team currently occupies the first wild-card slot with Peavy’s 2.16 ERA in 10 starts—a large reason for the improvement.

Boston netted reliever Heath Hembree and starting pitcher Edwin Escobar in the deal, and both have already made their debuts with Boston. If Hembree can become a solid part of the rotation and Escobar can provide depth, this deal will have worked out for Boston quite well.

Let’s take a look at the four deals Boston did after Peavy and grade the impact these moves have had on the team in two months.

Begin Slideshow

With the signing of Cuban Rusney Castillo, the Red Sox added even more talent to their outfield corps.

Already bursting at the seams, it seems inevitable that Boston will have to clear some of its outfield assets in the offseason in order to make all the pieces work.

Currently, the team’s outfield consists of Allen Craig, Mookie Betts and Yoenis Cespedes. Boston also has Daniel Nava, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Shane Victorino in the mix for outfield time, and all have strong cases to start.

We already know that Castillo is essentially guaranteed a starting spot in the outfield in 2015. After all, why would the club have signed a seven-year, $72.5 million deal with the 27-year-old if the end goal wasn’t to have Castillo patrolling center field for Boston?

Past that, how free agency plays out and what trades the Red Sox make will go a long way toward dictating who opens 2015 alongside Castillo in left and right field…and that includes Yoenis Cespedes, Boston’s high-profile acquisition at the trade deadline. It’s entirely possible the team could turn around and swap the former Athletic in the winter.

Before discussing Cespedes, let’s run through his competitors for other outfield spots:

Mookie Betts

Betts is Boston’s top prospect, according to SoxProspects.com. However, Betts is just 21 years old and his exposure to the majors in the early going shows that he might benefit from more minors seasoning. While Betts’ .254/.338/.365 line through 20 games is nothing to sneeze at, he hasn’t shown definitively that he belongs in Boston. Further, given the struggles of fellow 21-year-old Xander Bogaerts, the Red Sox might elect to be more cautious with Betts.

Additionally, Betts was moved to the outfield this season to address what was at the time a shortage in outfielders. That’s no longer the case, so Betts could move back to the infield and feasibly compete for the third-base job. Finally, if the Red Sox pull off a blockbuster deal for a pitcher in the winter, such as for Cole Hamels, Betts could be part of the trade package.

Jackie Bradley Jr.

Bradley spent much of 2014 as the starting center fielder but just could not get his offense in gear and is considered the most disappointing prospect in the game, according to a poll conducted by Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh. He was recently demoted to Triple-A after putting together a .216/.288/.290 line, and his role in 2015 is a big question.

Bradley is an elite center fielder, notching 14 defensive runs saved (definition per FanGraphs), which places second in the major leagues. His defense is meaningless without a quality bat, and he has done enough damage to his stock that chances are the 24-year-old is ticketed for Triple-A in 2015 or as no more than a backup outfielder with the major league squad.

Garin Cecchini

Cecchini is a third baseman who has been seeing time in left field as well in 2014. The move to left was in part to help Boston give playing time to other infielders in the minors, but also as a result of Cecchini‘s own struggles defensively. He may not be a third baseman long-term, and Red Sox manager John Farrell has already said that Cecchini‘s poor play at third has factored into his continued stay in Triple-A, per Tim Britton of The Providence Journal.

Given the depth in the outfield and his unexciting bat—which has led him to a .257/.336/.367 line in Triple-A—he’s not a serious candidate for playing time in the outfield. More than likely, he’ll compete for the third-base job or return to Triple-A in 2015.

Allen Craig

Craig is struggling through a career-worst season, but he was the cleanup hitter on the 2013 NL champion St. Louis Cardinals. While Craig could be flipped in the winter via trade, it’s hard to imagine Boston giving up John Lackey to get Craig (along with starting pitcher Joe Kelly) only to turn around and trade Craig coming off a poor season. Kelly plus a discounted return on Craig in exchange for Lackey doesn’t make sense. The club could also shift Craig to first base and deal Mike Napoli.

Brock Holt

While Holt took the league by storm and has given the Red Sox tremendous flexibility with his ability to play multiple positions, the bloom has come off the rose somewhat for the 26-year-old. Holt entered the All-Star Break hitting .327/.371/.463, which translates to am .834 OPS. However, that OPS has fallen significantly since the All-Star Break. Holt’s line post-break is .224/.291/.266, which gives him a .557 OPS and puts him on the level of Jackie Bradley Jr. as far as offensive futility.

Prior to his breakout in the first half, Holt was considered a backup player, and that remains his most likely outcome. Holt should nonetheless be considered the favorite to play third base next season in a competition that’s shaping up to include Will Middlebrooks, Betts and Cecchini.

Daniel Nava

While Nava was extraordinarily valuable to Boston in 2013 as a platoon bat that faced off against right-handers, he seems to have lost his cachet with the club this season. A year after hitting .303/.385/.445, he started off the season in a slump and was sent to Triple-A Pawtucket for his troubles. Stuck down there in part because of a game of numbers, Nava has hit .297/.370/.359 since his return.

While he’s been getting at-bats regularly since the trade deadline, his participation in Red Sox games will drop now that Craig is off the disabled list, freezing him out of regular time in the outfield. It’s even possible the 31-year-old is moved before September, as The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo linked the Tigers and Pirates to Nava‘s services.

Shane Victorino

The Flyin‘ Hawaiian is out for the season after requiring back surgery. He appeared in just 30 games all season. Victorino is under contract for 2015, but it’s difficult to see him playing ahead of Craig, Castillo or Cespedes, making him a high-priced backup player unless Craig or someone else is traded.

After covering all these players, we can safely eliminate Bradley, Cecchini, Holt and Nava from consideration for 2015 starting spots. Given the outfield’s abundance of quality depth, these players will struggle for playing time. That leaves Betts, Craig and Victorino competing with Cespedes for the right to fill the outfield around Castillo. 

Out of all these players, Cespedes is the biggest certainty to man an outfield spot for Boston in 2015.

Why would the Red Sox have asked for Yoenis Cespedes in return for Jon Lester if they were going to flip Cespedes in the winter? The Red Sox would have been better off chasing a different return for Lester over acquiring Cespedes, who has won the past two Home Run Derbies.

Cespedes gives the Red Sox a well-proven power supply, whereas no one knows what type of thump Castillo will contribute. Castillo reportedly wowed scouts with his increased power as he was putting on showcases for major league teams in advance of his signing, as Ben Badler of Baseball America writes. Will that translate to more than 20 home runs with the Red Sox? No one knows.

Just like no one knows whether Craig can bounce back from his poor season and rediscover his power. Betts, meanwhile, could be included in a blockbuster deal, moved to third base or sent back to Triple-A. In short, there’s no reason why Betts should play over Cespedes.

The Red Sox need power. That was the whole motivation behind trading for Cespedes to shore up an outfield devoid of sluggers. Prior to the arrival of Cespedes, Red Sox outfielders had combined for 14 home runs on the season, while Cespedes had 17 himself.

While Castillo and Cespedes will co-exist nicely in 2015, it’s the year after that’s the real question as Cespedes will be a free agent.

While Castillo can play center, he spent most of his career in Cuba in right field. Given that the Red Sox always seek to have two center fielders on the team, as GM Ben Cherington tells The Boston Globe, it’s possible that the Red Sox view Castillo as a right-fielder long-term if Bradley can rebound with the bat or Betts finds his permanent home in center field.

Right now, the splash that the Red Sox made signing Castillo won’t affect Cespedes at all, as the two should anchor the outfield in 2015. Beyond that, having Castillo under contract may make it easier for Boston to let Cespedes, who will be 30 for the 2016 season, depart and sign a big-money deal elsewhere.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

July 31 was a significant day in Red Sox history, as the team underwent perhaps the most dramatic makeover in franchise history, undergoing a fire sale once it became clear the team would not contend in 2014.

A fire sale’s ultimate goal is to get a team back to contention, but the way general manager Ben Cherington went about it ran counter to most fire sales. Typically, fire sales consist of stripping the major league squad and pinning hopes on the progression of prospects.

The Red Sox don’t have that luxury, with a demanding fan base and financial resources at their disposal.

Any fire sale needed to be with eyes on 2015. Once the front office came to the realization that the 2014 squad was incapable of sustaining the success that brought the 2013 World Series title to Boston, the focus shifted to 2015.

This is one way that the Red Sox’s fire sale will pay off in the end. Instead of banking a franchise’s hopes on prospects who may not pan out, Cherington went after proven players who can form the core of a team that has division title hopes in 2015, while also increasing flexibility.

The club dealt away four free agents (Jon Lester, Andrew Miller, Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes) plus John Lackey, who may or may not have agreed to pitch for the Red Sox under a club option for the league minimum in 2015, as MLB.com’s Ian Browne notes.

In return, the club got just one prospect and one draft pick, with the bulk of the return coming in the form of accomplished major league players.

The biggest return came from moving Lester and Gomes to the Athletics in exchange for Yoenis Cespedes. Boston also picked up a 2015 draft pick in the trade as well.

Cespedes boasts big-time power and has won two consecutive Home Run Derbies.

In a league that is devoid of right-handed power (which Joe Lemire of Grantland tries to explain), having both Cespedes and Mike Napoli in the same lineup gives the Red Sox a major leg up in its goal to contend in 2015.

At the time of the trade, Red Sox outfielders had combined for 14 home runs on the season, while Cespedes had 17 alone.

Allen Craig also offers right-handed power, although he’s struggling through a down season and is currently on the disabled list. If he can get through his injury and rediscover his stroke, Craig adds another thumper to the middle of a lineup that has struggled to get the big hit for extra bases far too often in 2014.

Less than a year ago, Craig was an integral component of the NL Champion Cardinals, hitting .315/.373/.457, primarily hitting cleanup.

The last significant addition to Boston’s major league squad was starting pitcher Joe Kelly.

Kelly gives the Red Sox another rotation candidate for 2015 who is already established at the major league level. In 2013, Kelly posted a 2.69 ERA in 15 starts and 17 relief appearances covering 124 innings.

The team also acquired utility infielder Kelly Johnson for Drew, but that deal was about moving top prospect Xander Bogaerts back to shortstop for the rest of the season to evaluate Bogaerts’ ability to man the position full-time in 2015, as Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes.

Another reason the Red Sox’s fire sale will pay off in the end, in addition to acquiring assets who can help the team contend quickly, is due to adding controllable assets.

By focusing on a return of major league players who are under contract for at least 2015, the team actually put itself in a better position to contend next season. There was no guarantee that any of the pending free agents would return to Boston, while the incoming players will make up a big part of the 2015 squad.

Cespedes is a free agent after 2015, but Craig is tied to the team through 2017, while Kelly isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2018 season.

That provides tremendous value, as the team has now secured a better future than if they had allowed Lester, Miller, Drew and Gomes to depart in free agency without receiving anything in return, except a possible draft pick for losing Lester that would have not helped the team contend in 2015.

It’s easy to say Boston’s fire sale will pay off in the end, because it is already paying dividends by creating the next competitive Red Sox club that will bear fruit as early as 2015 and giving the team long-term assets to build around.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Ah, the trade deadline.

It’s that time of year where fans obsessively refresh Twitter and the careers of many baseball players and executives hang in the balance. 

Due to the addition of the second wild card to postseason play, the amount of teams willing to trade off notable pieces has declined. With more teams in the hunt to play in October, there are fewer impact players available on the market that buyers can go after.

That makes this trade deadline rather intriguing in two ways: 1) The teams that are clear sellers know the advantage they have in possessing pieces to deal with a big bounty headed back in return, and 2) there are many more teams interested in acquiring assets to fuel playoff runs.

With limited resources available on the market and increased competition, the trade deadline could be boom or bust. The two highest sellers are big-market teams that don’t need to make moves just for the sake of making a move, while buyers could blanch at high prices, which would freeze the trade market. On the flip side, sellers could have no trouble finding a trade package they like out of the varied options available to them.

Here are the five teams most likely to be aggressive heading into July 31, trade deadline day.

Begin Slideshow

The Boston Red Sox should make plenty of noise on July 2, the first day of the 2014-2015 international signing period.

The international signing phase is always difficult for teams, as they have to evaluate whether a 16-year-old player is worth a multimillion-dollar bonus. These players aren’t even old enough to graduate high school and have years of physical maturation ahead of them. Further, these players are much less seasoned than the pool of talent available in the domestic draft due to age and other factors.

According to Baseball America‘s Ben Badler, that won’t stop (subscription required) the Red Sox (and other teams) this season. Badler reports that Boston fully expects to exceed its bonus pool this year, which is $1,881,700. Boston expects to pay the maximum penalty. For every dollar over the assigned bonus pool, the Red Sox will have to pay a 100 percent overage tax (If the team ends up $8 million past their bonus pool, they will have to pay another $8 million in penalties.). Further, Boston will be barred from spending more than $300,000 over the next two signing periods.

That’s a lot of talent to give up the next two seasons, so Boston must really like the talent available in the current international signing period.

Look for Boston to sign pitchers after focusing on position players the last few signing cycles. In those cycles, the club shelled out for infielders Rafael Devers, Raymel Flores and Wendell Rijo, along with outfielder Manuel Margot. Two of these players have some of the highest ceilings in the Red Sox system, so serious rewards can be reaped by making the right signings in international free agency.

Devers is already considered Boston’s 11th-best prospect, according to SoxProspects.com, with Margot checking in at No. 14 and Rijo at No. 15. Still young, these players are expected to continue rising up the prospect charts.

Here’s a look at three key names that could be on Boston’s top prospects list in a couple years, all of whom are pitchers.

Anderson Espinoza, RHP

MLB.com believes the Red Sox are the front-runners to sign Espinoza, who is considered to be the best available pitcher on the market. The Venezuelan is fairly short, running 5’10”, which evokes comparisons to Pedro Martinez… and that comparison may not be far off. The 16-year-old’s fastball ranges from 91-93 mph, which is a fantastic speed for a pitcher as young as Espinoza, and he harnesses it with advanced command for his age. As is common for most pitchers of this age, there isn’t a true plus breaking ball or off-speed pitch, although his nascent curveball and changeup show potential.

Despite a lack of projection in adding to his height, his mechanics and ability to add more pounds to his 150-pound frame means velocity could be added to his fastball.

“He’s got a chance to be a superstar,” a scout told Badler (subscription required), with the consensus being that the last pitcher of Espinoza’s talent to come out of Latin America is Francisco Rodriguez, who has gone on to an All-Star career as a closer. “There’s going to be power to the stuff and he has command of three pitches that have a chance to be plus. He has poise, presence and command, with a loose arm and a projectable body. He’s the real deal.”

Christopher Acosta, RHP

The Dominican pitcher has a loose arm, which translates to strong ball movement, as MLB.com writes. It’s no surprise, then, that his breaking and off-speed pitches appear to have strong potential. The 6’3″, 170-pound athlete can throw a changeup in any count and boasts a curveball with bite to it.

MLB.com states that the Red Sox have shown “serious interest” in Acosta. With such a polished pitcher at a young age and the potential for three above-average pitches, it’s no surprise that Boston is eager to sign Acosta.

Negatives on Acosta include mechanics that need to be cleaned up and the need to develop a better attitude on the mound.

Huascar Ynoa, RHP

There is a divisive split regarding the potential of Huascar Ynoa, the other pitcher tied to Boston. The younger brother of Athletics pitcher Michael Ynoa, Huascar has the potential for three quality pitches, but is so inconsistent that he “draws the ire of scouts who have high expectations for the teenager,” as MLB.com writes.

Ynoa‘s fastball regularly sits in the low 90s, adding a cut fastball, spliter, curveball and a changeup. That’s a lot of pitches for such a young player, and it’s fair to wonder if the volume of pitches is one reason for his inconsistency. Another reason could be his mechanics, as he’s still trying to smooth out his delivery.

The Twins are considered to be the favorites for Ynoa per MLB.com, but Badler also links the Red Sox to the right-hander.

Of course, the Sox won’t be limited to just these three pitchers. They will sign a whole host of players with a wide range of possible career outcomes. However, look for Boston to sign at least one of the pitchers mentioned. With Boston determined to spend in the market and a need for lower-level pitching prospects, the dollars will be there to snag one of the top prospects in international free agency.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

In a bid to invigorate a slumping offense, the Red Sox signed former shortstop Stephen Drew to a one-year contract Tuesday, as Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal broke.

While that will have to wait at least 10 days as Drew gets back into playing shape, per Red Sox skipper John Farrell via Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe, the reverberations of Drew’s signing are already being felt.

Namely, the end of Will Middlebrooks in Boston.

To understand why signing a shortstop would impact third baseman Middlebrooks‘ tenure in Boston, take a look at incumbent shortstop Xander Bogaerts.

Just 21 years old, the Red Sox phenom burst on the scene, helping lead the team to a World Series victory in 2013 while playing third base, despite his natural position being shortstop. While his defense had been questionable to start 2014 and the power suspect, Bogaerts was still doing enough to rank fifth among all American League shortstops in wins above replacement (WAR).

Farrell tells Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal the solution is Bogaerts shifting to third base, although the right-hander could still see time at shortstop against left-handers. That’s a great solution in the interim while incumbent third baseman Will Middlebrooks is on the disabled list with a fractured right index finger.

But what happens when Middlebrooks comes off the DL?

Simple. He becomes a forgotten man in Boston.

It’s quite a fall from grace for Middlebrooks, who pushed Kevin Youkilis out of town with his strong play in the 2012 season, as The Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham recollects. He ended the year hitting .288/.325/.509 with 15 home runs in 75 games. He appeared on the verge of giving Boston a young third baseman with raw power dripping off him.

Unfortunately for Middlebrooks, his sophomore campaign in 2013 saw him struggle to start the season, get demoted to Triple-A and eventually lose his third base job to Bogaerts as the team rolled to their third World Series championship in the past decade.

While Middlebrooks‘ power was still there with 17 homers in 94 games, he just didn’t have the contact skills or plate discipline to attack pitches he could do something with, as evidenced by his .227 average and 5.3 walk percentage.

So far, 2014 has been a terrible season for Middlebrooks. His most recent DL assignment is already his second of the season, and when he’s been in the lineup, he just hasn’t been hitting. He’s made strides in the plate discipline department, walking 8.5 percent of the time. But when you’re hitting .197, there’s only so far that plate discipline will take you.

And now, Drew’s back with the team. It’s difficult to imagine Middlebrooks keeping a spot on the roster when he returns because the team will need its backup infielder to be capable of playing shortstop, as MacPherson notes. Middlebrooks can’t do that and thusly appears to have been rendered expendable, MacPherson adds.

For now, Middlebrooks can be optioned to Triple-A, but there’s another problem on that front. The team has the No. 1 Red Sox prospect, per Bleacher Report’s Ben Carsley, playing third base in Triple-A in Garin Cecchini. That means that the two will have to share time at third base and likely designated hitter. It’s also possible that Middlebrooks sees some time at first base, where he started once last season for Boston.

The Drew signing only matters for 2014, so it’s possible that Middlebrooks is right back in Boston’s plans for 2015. However, that could change on a dime; the team could bring Drew back as a free agent this offseason, permanently installing Bogaerts at third base. The team could also bypass Middlebrooks in favor of Cecchini, so Middlebrooks‘ future in Boston is in serious doubt.

That could be to Boston’s gain, though. Middlebrooks‘ raw power is rare, and there are plenty of teams that would love to get an opportunity at turning him into a middle-of-the-order hitter. Middlebrooks may yet bring value to the team in being an intriguing power chip that Boston could use to fill its remaining holes (finding a center fielder, perhaps?)

Miami Marlins GM Dan Jennings, in particular, has admitted to being a big fan of Middlebrooks, as the South Florida Sun-Sentinel‘s Juan C. Rodriguez wrote in the offseason.

It just so happens that the Marlins may eventually have to trade Giancarlo Stanton due to the star right fielder’s increasing price tag, as the Sun-Sentinel explores.

It’s not the first time that Stanton has been linked to the Red Sox, as The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo explored that very possibility in spring training. Dangling Middlebrooks in a deal along with some of Boston’s best pitching prospects could very well bring the slugger to Boston.

Barring a big injury, the 2014 Red Sox will carry on without Will Middlebrooks as a significant part of the team. At age 25, time is running out for Middlebrooks to show he can be a valued member of a lineup.

His next chance to do so may not be in Boston.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Boston Red Sox enter Tuesday with a 12-14 record and a -15 run differential, tied for second worst in the American League. It’s a far cry from where the defending World Series champions expected to be at the end of April.

What can the Red Sox do to get back in first place instead of battling to stay out of the cellar?

While the answer may not be satisfying to many, it’s a fairly simple answer: Stay patient.

After decades of following, learning and writing baseball, two key takeaways this writer can assure nervous Red Sox fans of is: April is far too early to make drastic changes, and regression to the mean will, nine times out of 10, solve the problem.

Let’s look at three key areas in which the Red Sox have struggled, and how patience will end up being the single biggest solution to alleviating these problems.

Lack of Power

While the meat of the order in David Ortiz and Mike Napoli are driving the ball with authority, the Red Sox lack the power throughout the lineup that the 2013 group enjoyed. A lot of that can be traced back to the underperforming power numbers of A.J. Pierzynski and Xander Bogaerts.

Signed to fill the void left by departing catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski’s calling card on offense is his power. 

The 37-year-old reached double digits in home runs in nine of his 13 seasons with at least 100 games played—and two of these seasons with single-digit homers were his first two seasons of full-time play.

Unfortunately, Pierzynski has yet to deliver on those grounds. Entering 2014, Pierzynski’s career slugging percentage (SLG) was .428 with an isolated power (ISO) of .145. Isolated Power, as Baseball Prospectus explains, “is a measure of a hitter’s raw power, in terms of extra bases per [at-bat].” \

So far with the Red Sox, his SLG is .377 with an ISO of .116 (see table below).

Before the weekend series, in which Pierzynski collected a home run on Saturday and double on Friday, his SLG was .355. The fact that his slugging percentage increased .22 points after only three games is indicative of how early it is. 

When it comes to sample such as these, one needs a much longer timeframe before anything of substance can be derived from them. In the early going, a slump can skew numbers dramatically, while just one good series good game—like Pierzynski’s weekend output—can make a significant difference. Come August, a good or bad game will barely register in season statistics.

Beware of small sample sizes, as they can cause one to jump to inaccurate conclusions.

It’s more likely than not that by the end of the year Pierzynski’s power production will mirror that of his career. This is where regression (or “trending back”) to the mean comes into play. Far more often than not, skewed numbers that look out of place for a player are simply outliers—a random variation that a regression to the mean will fix. Pierzynski’s poor power numbers to start the year will likely regress to his career power figures.

The same can be said of rookie shortstop Xander Bogaerts. While the 21-year-old won’t smash 30 home runs like it appears he can do one day, per the Telegram & Gazette, expecting him to stay under a .400 SLG the entire season is unlikely. Bogaerts’ minor-league SLG is .489.

For an exercise in small sample sizes, consider Bogaerts’ SLG in 2013, when he played 18 regular-season games with the Sox. That figure came in at .364, while his postseason mark in 12 games played was .481.

Similarly, his sample of 24 games played so far in 2014 is far too small to tell us anything about Bogaerts’ true expected power production over the 2014 season. Like Pierzynski, we can see that just one game can make a big difference early on. Before Sunday, Bogaerts’ SLG was .373. After a two-hit game against the Blue Jays in which he rapped a double, it’s all the way up to .391.

Beware of small sample sizes.

The Sox can count on more than the expected improvement of Pierzynski and Bogaerts’ power. On Friday, the Red Sox welcomed back Will Middlebrooks, the Sox’s power-hitting third baseman who played just four games before going on the disabled list. With a career slugging percentage of .469, that will be a dramatic improvement over the punchless Jonathan Herrera and Brock Holt.

Defensive Woes

Boston has also struggled when it comes to defense. In 2013, the club enjoyed the fruits of Jacoby Ellsbury in center and Shane Victorino in right to track down many a fly ball. Stephen Drew was steady at shortstop while Mike Napoli looked like a Gold Glove candidate at first base.

Fast-forward a year later and the fielding has been so poor it’s fast becoming a storyline.

But again, small sample sizes and regression to the mean come into play here.

Take Bogaerts, for example. He ranks as one of the worst shortstops when it comes to defense, as Fangraphs’ leaderboard shows, with a -1.8 “Defense” mark. Last year, in just as small a sample size as 2014, Bogaerts turned in an +0.2 mark. The takeaway is that it’s yet to be determined just how good or bad Bogaerts’ defense will be. Relying on April’s games to draw conclusions is inadvisable.

Napoli, as mentioned, was a Gold Glove candidate last season. His Ultimate Zone Rating over 150 games was 13.3, the best in baseball. This year, it’s at 0.3. What’s the better bet: Napoli suddenly being barely above average at first base, or small sample size flaring up?

We can bet on Napoli regressing back to the mean and being an above-average first baseman before the year is out. It doesn’t mean it is a lock to happen, but it’s more of a lock than expecting Napoli‘s April numbers to continue.

The last poor fielder to discuss is Grady Sizemore.

Sizemore’s center field defense is disastrous, as his fielding numbers bear out. While he was once a strong defender, age and injuries have robbed him of the ability to play center. It has been apparent just how poor of a defender Sizemore has become just by watching the games.

Sizemore won’t be asked to handle center field anymore, as that job has been turned over to Jackie Bradley, Jr. for good. That relegates Sizemore to left field, where his poor defense can be hidden, especially with the Green Monster looming at Fenway Park. That move alone should boost the Red Sox’s defense dramatically.

Poor Pitching

The last segment of the Red Sox’s performance is pitching. While the team has been enjoying Jon Lester’s starts, the same can’t be said of Clay Buchholz and Felix Doubront.

Buchholz looked to be a Cy Young contender last season before getting injured. This year, he’s one of the worst pitchers in the game with a 6.66 ERA.

Felix Doubront struggled through parts of 2013 but flashed dominance at times. He has yet to do so in 2014 with a 6.00 ERA.

As I’ve tried to hammer home throughout this piece, regression to the mean is likely with both pitchers. Fortunately, there’s a metric that can help us figure out what to expect moving forward.

Buchholz and Doubront will be hard-pressed to finish the season with ERAs above 6.00. Even if they aren’t the pitchers they once were, their talent is too great for that.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a figure scaled to ERA that adjusts for park factors and luck, according to Fangraphs. While Buchholz has been far from elite this year, his FIP mark is 4.45. Once you adjust for luck on home runs, that number dips to a 3.97 xFIP.

The takeaway here is that Buchholz has been dramatically unlucky to post a 6.66 figure; Account for elements beyond Buchholz’s control, and he should have a 3.97 ERA on the season. One should feel much better about the right-hander’s odds to emerge again as a front-of-the-rotation starter after seeing these figures.

Doubront has a similar tale to tell. His FIP is 4.88 with an xFIP of 4.90. So while Doubront still hasn’t pitched well according to FIP, his 6.00 is just over a full run higher than it should be.

These numbers show what one can expect from the two pitchers assuming normal regression to the mean. Over time, these numbers should trend back to what FIP and xFIP suggest, and what their true talent level suggests.

How about the bullpen? Two major FIP outliers are Edward Mujica and Craig Breslow. Last season, Mujica saved 37 games while Breslow’s career ERA is 2.89. So far this year, their ERAs are abnormally high. Over time, the performances of these relievers will trend back to normalcy. Besides, the bullpen is the biggest component of a team that is subject to variation and luck, and Boston has the entire season in which to hit upon the right combination.

Take 2013, for example. Brandon Workman ended up being one of the most important relievers in October for Boston … he didn’t make his season debut until July 10.

So, What’s the Takeaway?

Small sample sizes. Regression to the mean. These are two of the overarching themes throughout this piece that we’ve discussed. From power to defense to pitching, we find elements that suggest performances to date can be expected to improve, all by simply waiting things out.

Patience.

Patience is the key to fixing the Red Sox’s biggest problems early in 2014. It may not be an answer you want to hear. Due to the fact the Red Sox’s record sat at 0-0 entering the year, their 12-14 record sticks out like a sore thumb.

But all teams, even elite ones, go through these ebbs and flows. If the Red Sox were 52-37 in July and then went on a 12-14 streak, it would be overlooked. But since the 12-14 record comes at the start of the year, the record sticks out like a sore thumb.

If the Red Sox want to get back to October baseball, its best bet is simply stay the course. Some players will start playing better. Others will play worse. Once the team has a few months to evaluate how well players are performing, then more drastic measures can be taken.

Until then, Boston needs to stay patient.

More from Bleacher Report:

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com