Kuzul

After a few rough patches, the St. Louis Cardinals have emerged from the first two weeks of the season as a veritable contender for the National League Central Division title. 16 games into the young season, the Cardinals are 8-8, one game behind the Cincinnati Reds for first place.

Despite being within a game of the divisional lead, it’s often hard to take such small sample sizes seriously. After all, that’s under one-tenth of the season.

It comes as a surprise, then, that Baseball Prospectus gives St. Louis a 55.3 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 49.2 percent chance of winning the division.

Baseball Prospectus runs a Monte Carlo simulation, playing through the rest of the season a million times based on projected winning percentages. With each game the team plays, their projection changes.

The Cardinals’ chances at the Central crown have changed dramatically over the last week. Before their series with the Diamondbacks, the Cardinals were 3-6. Baseball Prospectus gave them a 40.9 percent chance at October baseball, just barely ahead of Cincinnati.

Now, after emerging as an offensive powerhouse en route to winning series in Phoenix and Los Angeles, St. Louis has driven their chances up by 14.4 percent in the span of a week—the most by any major league team over that time.

All of this adds up to a projected .530 winning percentage for the Redbirds in 2011. That translates to an 88-win division championship season. St. Louis has a chance to improve those odds later tonight when they take on the Washington Nationals (projected .440 winning percentage) for a three-game series.

St. Louis has better chances than all but five teams to make the postseason, and better chances than any team in the AL Central. Their 88 projected wins are better than all NL teams except Philadelphia and San Francisco, last year’s NLCS opponents.

All of this points to a bright outlook for Redbirds fans in 2011.

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On Friday, the New York Mets released second baseman Luis Castillo with a year remaining on the four-year, $25 million deal he signed after the 2007 season.

To be fair, the marriage between Castillo and New York was doomed from the get-go. Mets fans never really took to Castillo, booing him on Opening Day despite a strong 2009 season, and poor performance egged on by injury killed his career as a Met.

Here’s the great part for the rest of the league: The Mets still have to pay Castillo his entire $6 million salary for 2011.

Besides proving that the Mets don’t have any chance of competing in 2011, this also means any team can sign Castillo to the major league minimum.

Recently I wrote a piece on why the Cardinals should consider Barry Zito, who at the time looked to be on his way out of San Francisco. I noted that with Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals’ best pitcher, out for the season, they’d have to scrap for wins any way they could.

That said, I disagree with anyone who says the Cardinals should go out and sign Castillo.

Obviously this isn’t about a monetary risk. The Cardinals would have to give up next to nothing for Castillo.

This is a question of youth versus experience.

While Castillo is adequate on defense, lacks pop at the plate and is a strong veteran presence, there’s only one spot left on the Cardinals roster for a position player.

Right now, that spot is up for grabs between Daniel Descalso and Matt Carpenter, although Carpenter is the heavy favorite.

So while signing Castillo would give the Cardinals a player who put up a .387 on-base percentage as recently as two years ago, it takes up a spot that could be used on a budding young starter.

As long as Tony LaRussa’s fondness for veterans continues, these sorts of deals will always be linked to the Cardinals. In this case, St. Louis should pass.

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When camp broke, St. Louis Cardinals prospect Matt Carpenter seemed destined to start the 2011 season as the third baseman for Triple-A Memphis.

After putting up a .458./.552/.708 line in his first 24 spring at-bats, he may have thrust himself into a possible bench role and his debut in the Show. FOXSportsMidwest.com’s B.J. Rains reported yesterday that Carpenter and middle infielders Ramon Vazquez and Daniel Descalso have entered a competition for the final spot on the Cardinals roster.

Carpenter, the 2010 Cardinals Minor League Player of the Year, is looking to follow a slightly similar career path (albeit delayed) to that of the last third baseman to win MLPOY for St. Louis—Albert Pujols.

Both players were drafted in the 13th round, played third whilst rocketing through the minor league system, won the Cardinals Minor League Player of the Year Award and in their first full big league spring tore up Jupiter with hitting ability that has to be seen to believed.

Today, manager Tony LaRussa decided to test Carpenter by hitting him second today against Twins ace Carl Pavano in a star-studded lineup that included every projected Opening Day starter—except third baseman David Freese.

“[He’s getting] a lot of at-bats and playing time now,” La Russa said to MLB.com reporter Matthew Leach. “It could go away. We could decide he’s not ready or it just doesn’t fit. He may be ready, but it doesn’t fit our club. But the difference here is that [reserve infielder Nick] Punto is out, so there are not only spring training at-bats, but there’s a month of a spot for somebody. So we want to be inclusive, not just decide ahead of time.”

Carpenter went 1-for-4 on the day with two strikeouts, but let’s not forget that this was against a major league pitcher.

So, can we take this seriously?

My answer: Absolutely. Depending on what you’re looking at.

If you think that we’re looking at the second coming of Albert, you’ll be sorely disappointed. Carpenter is already 25, and doesn’t have a shot at a starting role as of now. He’s not the next great in a line of Cardinals third basemen that includes Ken Boyer and Scott Rolen, either.

But if you’re looking for an infielder that can come off the bench for a big hit, play solid defense and can give your starter a day off every once in a while, then Carpenter is your man.

He brings a certain confidence to the plate that not even some of the veterans on the St. Louis roster provide. He also shows immense respect for himself and the team, as evidenced by this sound bite he articulated on Saturday to MLB.com’s Leach:

“All that is really out of my control…All I can control is when I get an opportunity to play, giving it my best effort and having good at-bats. Try to play good baseball. That’s kind of how I’ve been going at it. When I got invited here, I was just excited to be a part of it. I got the opportunity to play, and I was trying to make the most of it. Things have kind of been going well for me, and I’m just trying to continue that.”

Right now, he’s exactly what the Cardinals need with starting third baseman David Freese expected to need time off every three games or so to rest his ailing ankles. As a lefty, Carpenter brings the added bonus of complementing the right-handed Freese as a platoon partner if LaRussa sees that Freese is struggling.

LaRussa, who has publicly expressed that the team has an opening for Carpenter, also chose to keep the TCU graduate in for four at-bats today. This spring, Matt Carpenter is playing for more than just seasoning. He’s playing for a job.

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After Adam Wainwright went down for the season, Kyle McClellan looked like the leading candidate to take the open spot in the starting rotation. After his first outing of the spring, that spot is now McClellan’s to lose.

He looked strong in three shutout innings, needing only 38 pitches against the Astros today. He threw 25 of those for strikes, and only two balls even made it out of the infield off the bats of a Houston lineup that only started two of its regulars. McClellan only faced one batter over the minimum.

St. Louis also got strong returns from its relief corps, getting a scoreless fourth from lefty Trevor Miller. Prospect Bryan Augenstein sat down six batters in a row, and John Gast gave up a single but erased the runner with a pickoff in the seventh.

Southpaw Raul Valdes allowed two hits in the eighth but got a double play to get out of the jam, and Fernando Salas earned his second save as the Redbirds came away with a 1-0 victory.

Matt Holliday knocked in the only run.

McClellan had a 4.04 ERA in 68 games during as a rookie in 2007 and improved to a 3.38 ERA in 66 the next season. His best season came last year, when he posted a 2.27 ERA (3.92 xFIP) in 68 games.

For the last three years, McClellan has been an integral part of the St. Louis bullpen, but he was a starter in the minor leagues before undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he believes he can return to that role in his fourth full season with the Cardinals.

“It really doesn’t change a whole lot for me,” McClellan said. “This is what I want to do. The whole time I have been here, this is kind of where I want to be and the situation I want to be in. Obviously it’s extremely unfortunate with Adam but it’s somewhere where I feel like I could succeed and I have the stuff to do it.”

The biggest question for McClellan going forward is his durability. He’s never pitched at least 74 innings in a season, and only has 217-2/3 innings under his belt in the big leagues. McClellan doesn’t see this as a problem.

“I think it’s a legit question but you can’t really compare relievers to starters because as a reliever, you’re mentally and physically prepared to pitch every day,” McClellan said. “Yeah physically you may only throw 70 innings, but you’re throwing consecutive days, with no rest, with only a day rest, and as a starter, you can prepare yourself for that one day. You can go out and drain yourself for that one day and have four days to recover.

“I don’t think you can just look at it and say, ‘He’s only thrown 70, how’s he expected to throw 150?’  As long as I’m prepared physically, we’ll just go as far as I can go. You just go out and keep pitching until you can’t pitch anymore.”

McClellan also has the backing of pitching coach Dave Duncan, who recently transformed Adam Wainwright from rookie closer to a Cy Young candidate and ace starter.

“Right now he’s the guy that I think is best suited for the role, provided he can show us this spring what we need to see,” said Duncan. “He’s done that before but like I said, I’m one vote and not the final vote. In my opinion, it’s more important to get him slotted than it is anybody else.”

Duncan also dismissed any claims that McClellan will suffer from the drop in velocity that pitchers usually experience after moving from the bullpen to the rotation.

He relies mostly on deception and movement in his pitches, and he has possesses a fastball that tops out at about 93 mph, a strong curveball, and a complementary breaking ball.

This isn’t the first time that McClellan has entered camp with a shot at a starting job. Last year, he entered spring as the favorite for the fifth starter’s job, but lost the spot to lefty Jaime Garcia. It’s poetic justice, however cruel, that he could make his first start after entering spring with a solid spot in the bullpen.

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The St. Louis Cardinals made what might likely be their last addition of the offseason on Friday, signing infielder Nick Punto to a one-year deal. It will be worth $750K.

Punto is a switch-hitter, who had strong seasons in 2006 and 2008, but has been disappointing since. He batted .238 with a .313 on-base percentage and a .302 slugging percentage in 2010.

What he does bring is a solid glove. He holds a career UZR of 29.9 in 285 games at third, and, if starting third baseman David Freese is unable to return from ankle surgery on schedule, Punto can fill in.

“It addresses a couple of things for us,” said general manager John Mozeliak. “One thing that we believe is he’s a very, very good defensive player at second, short and third, and will certainly give us protection there should we need it. We also see value in him being a switch-hitter, to give [manager Tony La Russa] a little more flexibility that way as well.”

Punto has a UZR of 7.9 in 252 games at second and 27.2 in 257 at shortstop.

“And overall our hope is that David Freese is going to be our everyday third baseman, but if there is a problem there, we certainly know this man is capable of playing there every day.”

When Freese is healthy, Punto will back up second, shortstop and third. That means that Daniel Descalso and Tyler Greene will have to compete for a job this spring. Mozeliak says that Ramon Vazquez, who signed a minor league contract earlier this offseason, will also be part of the competition.

“To his credit, [Punto] just really wanted to be a St. Louis Cardinal and really pushed for it,” Mozeliak said. “Nick’s thrilled about coming here. I always think when people show this kind of interest, it’s always beneficial to the club.”

Signing Punto is low-risk, high-reward. Bill James and ZiPS predict a very slight offensive improvement for Punto in 2011, but, like most insurance, he should be reliable when called upon. If he does anything more than what he did last year, this would be a great signing for Mozeliak.

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An already deep Cardinals rotation added some surplus on Friday, inking Miguel Batista and Ian Snell to minor-league deals. The Post-Dispatch reports that Batista can become a free agent if he’s not assured a spot on the big-league team by the final week of Spring Training, and that Snell has a similar option for June 1.

Batista, who turns 40 early next month, has already played in nine big-league cities in a career that began with the Pirates in 1992. He pitched both as a spot starter and long reliever last season with the Nationals.

His one start received national attention, as he took the mound to replace rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg on short notice, to a chorus of boos from the paying public. After the game, he made the remark, “Imagine if you go to see Miss Universe, then you end up having Miss Iowa, you might get those kind of boos.”

He was exceptional in that one start, handcuffing the first-place Atlanta Braves to just three hits and one walk in five shutout innings, while striking out six.

Batista wasn’t the only former Pirates farmhand with a penchant for the strikeout that the Redbirds added. Ian Snell made his big-league debut for Pittsburgh in 2004, when he gave up just one hit, to the Cardinals’ John Mabry.

Of the two, Snell has much more potential with the Cardinals. Despite a disappointing season with the Mariners last year, Snell is just 29, and holds a career strikeout rate of 7.2 K/9. From 2006-08, he averaged 172 strikeouts per 162 games.

However, after a strong 2007 campaign, in which he posted career bests with a 3.76 ERA, 208 innings pitched, and 2.9 BB/9, Snell hasn’t been the same pitcher.

In 2008, he had a league-high in OBP-against (.385) and triples allowed (9), and his careening career reached its nadir in 2010, when, after struggling with injuries and failing to hold onto a roster spot for the two previous seasons, he allowed eight runs and struck out only one in 1.2 innings against Texas.

Despite his troubles with the Pirates and Mariners, Snell could benefit greatly from a change of scenery. His struggles have often been attributed to depression and a disenchantment with his playing environment. Many players have found new life after coming to St. Louis, a town that is widely known for celebrating even the lowliest of middle relievers as demigods.

Snell may also benefit from the tutelage of legendary coach Dave Duncan, who has turned many players with less talent than Snell into All-Stars.

Time will tell if the new coach and town help Snell’s and Batista’s careers.

The Cardinals also announced their non-roster invitees on Friday: pitchers Brandon Dickson, Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Adam Ottavino, Kevin Thomas and Raul Valdes, catchers Nick Derba, Steven Hill, Audry Perez and Robert Stock, infielders Matt Carpenter and Donovan Solano and outfielders Amaury Cazana, Shane Robinson and Nick Stavinoha.

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The Cardinals made what’s likely their last addition of the offseason on Tuesday, adding backup catcher Gerald Laird to the fold with a one-year, $1 million deal. Laird will back up All-Star catcher Yadier Molina.

Laird represents an upgrade over former backup Jason LaRue, who retired during the 2010 season after experiencing post-concussion symptoms after receiving a kick to the head from Reds pitcher Johnny Cueto.

Laird, who has started at least 76 game each of the past four seasons, is a change from the norm when it comes to Cardinals backups. Generally, Molina starts almost every game, but Laird can give Molina a rest.

He’s also a significant defensive upgrade over LaRue. Laird leads all major league catchers over the last five years in throwing out 142 would-be base-stealers, nearly 36 percent over that time.

He’s still seen as an outstanding defensive catcher, although his offense has been on the decline in recent years. He holds a career line of .242/.300/.358. His best year came in 2006, when he batted .298 with the Texas Rangers. He batted .207/.263/.304 for the Tigers in 2010.

Laird is also the first backup catcher to join the team before the age of 34 since Einar Diaz in 2004.

However, the Cardinals farm system is flush with capable catching prospects—Bryan Anderson, Robert Stock and Steve Hill, to name a few. And Laird isn’t exactly a great influence on those guys, either. He and his younger brother, a Yankees minor leaguer, were arrested on suspicion of assault and disorderly conduct after attending a Phoenix Suns game.

If they weren’t going in-house, though, Laird was probably the best options. The market for backup catchers was very thin. Bengie Molina fielded offers from the Cardinals, but wanted starter-type money. Other options included Josh Bard and Ramon Castro.

With Laird added, the Cardinals will likely carry 13 batters into the season: Molina, Laird, Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot, David Freese, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Lance Berkman, Allen Craig, Jon Jay, Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso.

The Cardinals will probably carry 12 pitchers: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook, Kyle Lohse, Ryan Franklin, Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, Trever Miller, Mitchell Boggs, Fernando Salas and Brian Tallet.

Pitchers Brian Augenstein, Maikel Cleto, David Kopp, Adam Reifer, Francisco Samuel and Eduardo Sanchez, as well as catchers Tony Cruz and Bryan Anderson, and batters Zach Cox, Mark Hamilton, Pete Kozma and Adron Chambers round out the active roster.

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The Cardinals sent offensively anemic shortstop Brendan Ryan to the Seattle Mariners on Sunday, receiving fireballer Maikel Cleto in return.

Ryan became dispensable earlier this offseason when the Cardinals added shortstop Ryan Theriot.

This past season, Ryan delivered on defense—leading the league in several categories—but was a black hole on offense, batting just .223 with 11 steals. After acquiring Theriot, it just didn’t make sense to keep Brendan around off of the bench.

Cleto, who is just 21 years old, spent last season in the California League and had a 6.16 ERA in 23 appearances, 21 of which were starts. He received an invitation to the Arizona Fall League, and has been known to hit 100 mph on radar guns.

Despite his struggles, the Cardinals believe he can be a successful pitcher.

“Cleto has a power arm that at times has reached 100,” Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak said. “He’s someone that could project as a back of the bullpen talent with additional development and experience.”

Cleto, a Dominican native, struck out 7.3 batters per nine innings during the regular season and went 2-1 with a 7.91 ERA with the Peoria Javelinas in the AFL.

The worst case scenario for the Cardinals is that this turns into the reverse of the Ozzie Smith deal. The Cardinals acquired Smith, who one of the worst offensive players in baseball but a very good defender, from the Padres, and Smith went on to improve his offensive game to go along with a fantastic glove.

However, that’s not the case with Ryan. His offensive issues have been called “uncoachable”. He constantly fidgets at the plate, despite the insistence of hitting coach Mark McGwire. Smith had far more speed than Ryan, stealing 580 bases over his career. And, Ryan is two years older than Smith when he was dealt.

Simply, Ryan will probably continue to struggle, now that’s he’s been traded to the worst offensive team in baseball, with one of the least friendly parks in the league.

I’m glad that the Cardinals give Ryan a fresh start elsewhere, but I’m pretty surprised that the Mariners—who had the worst offense in baseball last year—decided to take a chance on a no-hit, good-glove 29-year old shortstop.

If Cleto develops into any kind of major league pitcher, this will be a successful deal for St. Louis.

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Today, the St. Louis Cardinals reached a one-year deal with first baseman and outfielder Lance Berkman worth $8 million.

For years, Lance Berkman was the centerpiece of an Houston Astros lineup that consistently battled with the Cardinals for supremacy in National League Central. Now, Berkman will try to help the Cardinals reclaim the Central division crown.

The Cardinals have seen their fare share of Berkman in the past. He’s hit seven home runs with 17 RBIs in 28 career games at Busch Stadium, amounting to a .284 average.

After years as one of the most fears hitters in the National League, Berkman has shown signs of age in recent years. Last year, he batted .248 last season in time split between the Astros and the New York Yankees. He hit 14 home runs and had 58 RBI in just 122 games.

Sources say that the Cardinals plan to play Berkman in left field, while moving All-Star Matt Holliday to right.

“We are extremely excited to have added Lance to our ballclub,” general manager John Mozeliak said in a press release. “He’s an impact player who not only helps solidify our everyday lineup, but he also brings a wealth of experience to our team.”

Although Mozeliak placed the chances of signing Berkman at 10 percent just last week, the Cardinals were able to strike a deal based on Berkman’s desire to build on the long Cardinal legacy.

“He’s a winning player, and he brings tremendous leadership and respect to the clubhouse,” Mozeliak said. “I think he has a great appreciation for the sport of baseball and the history of it. He looks at the St. Louis Cardinals as a premier place to play. It’s always nice to have people who have great admiration for the history of the organization.”

Berkman has played both first base and the outfield before. He has 871 career outfield starts and 717 at first base but has played mostly first in recent years.

However, first base is home to three-time MVP Albert Pujols, who won’t be moving anytime soon.

The last time Lance had a full season in the outfield was 2004, when he played 160 games at the corner outfield spots. It remains to be seen if, or rather how much, his defense has diminished since.

“Obviously, it’s a question,” Mozeliak said. “But he looked to be in great shape. He lost some weight and is running real well. So we have a high level of confidence in him.”

However, Berkman has remained adamant that he can still play the outfield.

“You look at his year last year, and he hurt his knee in Spring Training and just never got going,” Mozeliak said. “He feels he just never got 100 percent. He’s used this offseason to energize himself and heal.”

By signing Berkman, a switch-hitter the Cardinals have added a powerful bat to complement a lineup already stocked with right-handers Pujols and Holliday.

Berkman was strongly pursued by the Oakland A’s, and the Cardinals were a surprise destination. Berkman said that he preferred not to spend another season in the American League, playing mostly DH. He also heard offers from the Pirates, Blue Jays, Cubs and Rockies, but the Cardinals’ legacy and chance to win now were deciding factors for the 34-year old.

St. Louis seemed ready to head into 2011 with youngsters Jon Jay and Allen Craig platooning in right. Now, it seems, Craig and Jay will be reserved to the bench.

It’s clear that Berkman is a serious upgrade for the Cardinals offense. Among active players, he ranks fourth in on-base percentage, and 10th in slugging percentage. He holds a career batting percentage of .296 with 327 homers and 1,099 RBI, almost all with Houston.

If Berkman, who holds the National League record for single-season RBIs by a switch-hitter, as well as six seasons with 100 or more RBIs and eight with 25 or more home runs, can even return to a shade of his former self, the Cardinals should have a very formidable lineup in 2011.

“This took two parties [to complete],” Mozeliak said. “I think he had greater opportunities out there, financially, and I think he felt that this was just a place he wanted to play. Based on his desire to be here, that’s when we started to realize we had a chance to get this deal done.”

It was the second deal the Cardinals got done in under a week to improve what seemed like a punchless lineup at times last season. Earlier this week, the Cardinals added middle infielder Ryan Theriot, an above-average bat, who spent most of his career with the Cubs.

After acquiring another former rival in Berkman, says Mozeliak, the Cardinals are “pretty much a set club”, but they will continue to explore trade options with shortstop Brendan Ryan, who lost his starting job to Theriot, but may hold value with a team looking for a strong defensive shortstop.

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The St. Louis Cardinals made their first move toward upgrading their offense on Tuesday, trading right-hander Blake Hawksworth to the Los Angeles Dodgers for shortstop Ryan Theriot.

Theriot became expendable earlier this week when Los Angeles signed Juan Uribe, who can play multiple infield positions like Theriot, but has a little more pop.

Theriot, who holds a career batting average of .284, represents a significant offensive upgrade for a team that got a combined .244 out of their middle infielders in 2010, and a .221 mark out of their shortstops.

Theriot also has 165 of his 589 starts at second base, where he could spell Skip Schumaker against lefties. Schu holds a .220 career average against left-handers, and a .303 average against righties. Conversely, Theriot holds a .302 average against lefties, and a .277 average against righties.

A former Cub, Ryan also has experience in the National League Central. He holds a .303 average against NL Central pitchers.

At this point, Theriot will likely lead off, although he will need to improve his .323 on-base percentage from last year, a career low. Theriot brings speed to a previously plodding lineup, as he’s stolen at least 20 bases in the past four seasons. Last year, Albert Pujols led the team with 14 steals.

Now that Theriot projects as a starter in the middle infield, either Brendan Ryan or Skip Schumaker may be expendable next week at the Winter Meetings. The Cardinals would still like to improve their offense, and may package one of their middle infielders in a deal.

Then again, they may decide to head into 2011 with a deep middle infield consisting of Ryan, Theriot, and Schumaker, all relatively low-cost options. Theriot is under contract through 2012, and made just $2.6 million in 2010.

The Cardinals will send Blake Hawksworth to L.A. in the deal. Hawksworth experienced some success as a swingman for the Cardinals in 2009 and ’10, but the Cardinals had a surplus of right-handed relief.

In a not entirely unrelated move, the Cardinals may have solved another issue, signing left-handed reliever Brian Tallet to a one-year deal. Tallet was released by the Blue Jays last month, and the Cardinals, who were looking for a left-handed specialist to replace Dennys Reyes, snatched him up.

Tallet had a 6.40 ERA last season, and coughed up 20 homers, but he also held left-handers to a .176 average. The Cardinals plan to employ him as a specialist, so he may have more success in limited action.

Theriot and Tallet were teammates at Louisiana State University, where they won a national title in 2000. The Cardinals are hoping that they can duplicate that success in the majors.

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