Kuzul

A year ago, there was a great void at catcher for the Washington Nationals. It was like a black hole, a huge expanse of nothingness with nary a star in sight.

Brian Schneider seemed to be the answer when the team moved from Montreal but did little in his three seasons with Washington.

In 2009, Josh Bard and Wil Nieves got most of the at-bats but combined to hit just .240/.305/.330.

But in a month, pitchers and catchers will report to spring training and it seems that the Nationals now have an embarrassment of riches behind the plate.

Well, that’s a little hyperbolic, but at least they have three major league catchers to choose from, and that wasn’t planned.

General Manager Mike Rizzo fully expected “Pudge” Rodriguez to split time with Wilson Ramos, who was acquired at the trade deadline last season for reliever Matt Capps.

Two roster spots, two players. It seemed easy.

But then something amazing happened.

The last “future catcher” of the Nationals—Jesus Flores—returned from the baseball dead late last season and seems ready to again play baseball.

Now what?

To be sure, Rodriguez will come North with the team. After an off year in 2009, Rodriguez bounced back enough last season to give the Nationals a steady presence behind the plate. In 400 at-bats, he hit .266/.294/.347 and made just four errors in 102 games.

Ramos, baseball’s No. 58 prospect last year, batted .278 with the Twins and Nationals and has an above-average glove. When the trade was made, it was with the expectation that by the upcoming All Star break, he would be the team’s starting catcher. Ease in the prospect, ease out the Hall-of-Famer.

But does anyone remember how good Jesus Flores was?

I had never heard of Flores before the 2006 Rule V draft, but front office assistant Davey Johnson certainly had. He had seen him play for the Mets’ Class-A Florida State League entry and bugged then GM Jim Bowden to take him in the draft if available.

As a 21-year-old, Flores had batted .266-21-70 for Port St. Lucie with 32 doubles and a .335 on-base percentage. He led the league in home runs, was eighth in doubles, 14th in RBI and 10th in OPS.

He made just four errors all season and threw out almost half of those attempting to steal.

So why would such a good player be left unprotected?

Because no general manager in his right mind would take such a young and raw player—especially a catcher—and force him to sit on the major league bench for an entire year.

Washington Senators fans—old ones like me—remember Harmon Killebrew who had to remain on the major league roster as an 18-year-old because of similar rules, getting just 104 at-bats over two seasons before being sent to the minors for seasoning.

No one is stupid enough to let that happen again. That’s why Flores was left unprotected.

Of course, stupid and Jim Bowden just seem to go together quite well.

Said Baseball America the next day, “The best prospects lost in the major league phase include catcher Jesus Flores from the Mets to the Nationals, where new manager Manny Acta—who came over from the Mets—should be familiar with Flores. Still, it’s hard to imagine a catcher jumping from high Class A to stick in the major leagues. Then again, these are the Nationals.”

And from Metscentric.com, “The Mets also lost possibly their best catching prospect in Jesus Flores who was taken by Washington in the Rule 5 Draft. Flores is a few years away and the Mets are probably expecting Francisco Pena to eventually overtake him as a prospect. They may even get Flores back, but I still think it was a mistake to leave him exposed when they had roster space.”

Mlb.com’s Jonathan Mayo said that he was “very happy” with the pick and believed that the Nationals had found their “catcher of the future.” He said that Bowden was doing a solid job of finding “top-flight talent” in less than conventional ways.

Surprisingly, the Nationals didn’t hide him all that much in his first season in the major leagues. The 22-year-old batted .244/.310/.361 with four homers and 25 RBI. Expand those numbers over a full season and he would have batted .244-12-75.

But he just hasn’t been healthy since.

He started having headaches, suffered a severe ankle sprain, strained his calf, and that was just in 2008.

The following year, he injured his shoulder and missed more than 100 games. Then even before the 2010 season started, he tore his labrum and was out for the year.

Flores spent much of last summer slogging through physical therapy, healthy enough to be on the diamond but still unable to throw a ball to second base. When the Ramos trade was announced, he realized that he was now an afterthought to the Nationals.

And then—just like that—Flores got healthy. He played in 25 games in the just completed Dominican Winter League, hitting .322/.365/.460 with two homers and 16 RBI.

If he’s healthy, the Nationals have two young starting catchers. So now what?

His scouting report is glowing. “He boasts a great arm and can singlehandedly curb the running game and a solid hitting stroke and power potential. He is a quality receiver. He is a talented catcher with all-around upside when healthy.”

Compare that to Wilson Ramos: “Has an ideal catcher’s build. Can hit for average and also displays some home run power. His defense his first rate.”

The Nationals, then, may have two young catchers capable of being quality starters, both with a great glove and an above average bat.

Oh, and they have a future Hall-of-Famer as well.

If healthy, Flores is my preference. He has a similar bat with more power and a little better defense.

My guess is that—playing every day—Flores can hit .275-20-75 batting sixth while Ramos is more of a .270-15-55 hitter more suited for batting seventh.

Need proof?

Add up all of Jesus Flores’ major league at-bats and it equals one full major league season: .260-16-99, 30 doubles, 3 triples and a .313 on-base percent.

It makes no sense to keep both players, but because of his injury history, Flores has little trade value. Ramos, on the other hand, is worth one near All Star closer, Matt Capps proved that.

Should the Nationals play it safe and keep Ramos, a very good catching prospect or trade him and keep Flores, who has already shown that he is a quality major league catcher when healthy?

My guess is we’ll know sometime this spring.

But of course, this is all short-term conjecture.

The next great “catcher of the future” is Derek Norris, of course.

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BaseballAmerica.com recently released its top 10 prospect list for the Washington Nationals, and coming in at No. 3, is second baseman Danny Espinosa.

Aaron Fitt of Baseball America recently told masn.com’s Byron Kerr that, “Long Beach State is a shortstop factory with Troy Tulowitzki, Bobby Crosby and Evan Longoria played shortstop for a year when he was there. Espinosa is the next guy in that progression.”

Fitt added that Espinosa has “surprising pop,” he is able to  “get on base and make things happen” and is “going to have a lot of doubles. He will give you 10, 15, maybe 20 home runs a year.”

Fitt said defensively, Espinosa is a good player, with a strong arm and good range.

Most believe Espinosa will be a long-term member of the Nationals, whether at second or perhaps shortstop if Ian Desmond is traded.

Nowhere on Baseball America’s top 10 list though is another second baseman who has been every bit as impressive in his three years with the Nationals’ organization:  Stephen Lombardozzi.

The Nationals have made great strides towards respectability over the past couple offseasons.  However, if they hope to transform themselves from moribund loser to divisional contender, they need to improve their up-the-middle defense while finding a true leadoff hitter; a quality contact speedster with a high on-base percentage.

Nyjer Morgan, the team’s leadoff hitter, has a career on-base percentage of just .344 and strikes out 17 percent of the time (an average of 101 times per season).  He’s acceptable for now, but the Nationals need someone better when they make that final leap towards not sucking.

Espinosa certainly isn’t a leadoff hitter and his defense, while an improvement over Cristian Guzman and Adam Kennedy, isn’t Gold Glove quality.

In three minor league seasons, Espinosa had a .964 fielding percentage with a 4.42 range factor. His scouting report calls his defense “unpolished” and not good enough to play shortstop at the major league level.

Hence the move to second base.

Lombardozzi, along with Espinosa, was picked in the 2008 amateur draft—albeit in the 19th round—and has a minor league career fielding average of .983 while committing 20 fewer errors than Espinosa in 200 more chances.

His defense is described as “polished” and “steady.” His range is much better than Espinosa, and he looks like a young man whose father (Steve Lombardozzi) played in the major leagues.

If in fact the Nationals let Adam Dunn leave because the team was trying to upgrade their defense, then it would make more sense if Lombardozzi—and not Espinosa—was the team’s long-term answer at second base.

Ryan Zimmerman at third and Adam LaRoche at first are as good as they come defensively. Ian Desmond—if he can continue to reduce his throwing errors—can become a dominant defensive shortstop. The addition of Stephen Lombardozzi would only make them better.

Espinosa and Lombardozzi are two very different types of offensive players. Here are Espinosa’s career numbers based on a full 162-game season:

Minor Leagues (three seasons):

.270/.345/.455, 28 doubles, 5 triples, 22 homeruns, 80 RBI, 31 steals, 73 walks, 145 strikeouts

2009 Arizona Fall League:

.345/.434/.460, 35 doubles, 5 triples, 5 home runs, 98 RBI, 21 steals, 105 walks, 162 strikeouts

2010 Dominican Winter League:

.281/.343/.483, 36 doubles, 10 triples, 12 home runs, 88 RBI, 54 steals, 30 walks, 140 strikeouts

2010 Major Leagues

.214/.277/.447, 23 doubles, 6 triples, 35 home runs, 87 RBI, 52 walks, 174 strikeouts

Espinosa has a history of a relatively low batting average and on-base percentage, a good deal of home runs for a middle infielder, few walks and a whole lot of strikeouts.

This is not the kind of guy you want at the top of the batting order though. On a good team, he would probably bat sixth or seventh. I think that when his career is over, he’ll have averaged .250/.320/.450 with 20 homers and 75 RBI.

There is certainly nothing wrong with that, except for the fact that the Nationals need a leadoff hitter.

Here are Lombardozzi’s minor league averages over his three seasons (again based on 162 games):

.293/.373/.402, 33 doubles, 9 triples, 5 home runs, 50 RBI, 22 stolen bases, 77 walks and 89 strikeouts.

In the Arizona Fall League this past season, he averaged .293/.385/.439.

Over his career, Danny Espinosa has struck out 29 percent of the time while walking in just 8 percent of his at-bats.  Lombardozzi, on the other hand, walks in 11 percent of his at-bats while striking out just 12 percent of the time.

Two or three years ago, it wouldn’t have mattered which player started for the Nationals. The team was so bad that it wouldn’t have made a difference if their second baseman was a contact hitter or a power bat.

Things are finally starting to come together though. The Nationals are close enough to respectability where a player here or a player there could be the needed difference.

Ian Desmond and Nyjer Morgan set the table for Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham last season, but combined for only a .312 on-base percentage; sluggers can’t drive in runners who aren’t on base.

Perhaps the lack of base runners at the top of the order cost the Nationals five or six games last year, but the difference between 64 and 69 wins is meaningless.

The difference, however, between 80 and 85 wins is being in contention for the Wild Card spot.

Over the past couple of months, the Nationals have made offers to free agent pitchers Jorge de la Rosa and Carl Pavano and had a trade in place for Zack Greinke before the former Royal invoked his no-trade clause.

If the Nationals are really interested in adding another starter, Matt Garza has been available for quite some time. The Rays need a middle infielder and a relief pitcher.  It would make perfect sense for Washington to trade Espinosa and either Drew Storen or Tyler Clippard (and perhaps a minor league prospect) to Tampa for Garza.

The recently signed Henry Rodriguez could replace Storen or Clippard, and Lombardozzi could take over at second. If he needs a little more seasoning, the Nationals could sign a veteran infielder, such as David Eckstein, to fill in until he is ready.

The time for fill-in players have come and gone for the Washington Nationals. It’s time to put those in place who can help the team win.

Stephen Lombardozzi is one of those players.

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The worst kept secret came to fruition on Tuesday night as first baseman Adam LaRoche agreed to a two-year contract with a mutual option for a third year with a guaranteed value of $16 million.

I thought it was a great signing, even though LaRoche was General Manager Mike Rizzo’s third choice to fill the spot vacated by Adam Dunn (he was certainly my first choice, though). Carlos Pena and Derrek Lee were both offered contracts, but chose to sign elsewhere.

I am a little surprised at the reaction to the signing, though. “Average” and “mediocre” are some of the nicer comments I’ve read thus far around the blogosphere. To be fair, many of the commenters also say that the signing is generally a positive thing, but are they right?

Is Adam LaRoche just a mediocre first baseman pursued by a mediocre team?

Here are next year’s projected starting first baseman in the National League East, listed by runs batted in:

1. Philadelphia—Ryan Howard: .276-31-108

2. Washington—Adam LaRoche: .261-25-100

3. Florida—Gabby Sanchez: .273-19-85

4. New York—Ike Davis: .264-19-71

5. Atlanta—Eric Hinske: .256-11-51

LaRoche drove in just eight fewer runs than Ryan Howard last season and had more home runs and more runs batted in than anyone else in the division.

That’s not exactly mediocre, right?

Among National League first basemen, LaRoche was sixth in home runs with 25 and fifth with 100 RBI, right up there with Ryan Howard, Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez. And six players had batting averages lower than his .261.

In 2010, LaRoche hit left-handers better than righties. Adam Dunn, by comparison, batted .199 against them and was a hole in the lineup on those days when a lefty pitched. With runners in scoring position and two out, LaRoche batted .274/.348/.575, while Dunn hit just .169/.334/.366.

Last season, there were five elite first baseman in the National League. Listed below are their statistics from 2010 along with LaRoche, who of course isn’t in their league, but was one of the few first baseman to drive in 100 runs or more last year. They are listed by runs batted in:

Albert Pujols: .312-42-118

Joey Votto: .324-37-113

Ryan Howard: .276-31-108

Adrian Gonzalez: .298-31-101

Adam LaRoche: .261-25-100

Prince Fielder: .261-32-83

Now let’s take a look at those same six first baseman but we’ll use their clutch statistics from last season. Listed below is how they did with runners in scoring position and two outs, and with those numbers based on a full 162 game season (it’s much easier to compare that way as the number of at-bats varies from player to player). Again, they are listed by runs batted in:

Adam LaRoche: .274/.348/.575, 48 home runs, 292 RBI

Joey Votto: .327/.476/.653, 51 home runs, 268 RBI

Ryan Howard: .200/.341/.586, 38 home runs, 198 RBI

Albert Pujols: .340/.588/.620, 24 home runs, 186 RBI

Adrian Gonzalez: .317/.563/.439, 10 home runs, 142 RBI

Prince Fielder: .212/.441/.242, 0 home runs, 111 RBI

LaRoche had the highest number of RBI and came in second in home runs when compared to these elite sluggers (again, based on a full season). Yes, his batting average was just fourth best, but clutch hitting is all about driving in runs, not getting on base.

After looking at these statistics, LaRoche doesn’t seem “mediocre,” does he?

Defensively, LaRoche is not a Gold Glove first baseman, but he is an extremely good fielder, who can stop balls hit down the line and is great at digging bad throw out of the dirt.

Let’s compare the defense of those top first baseman with Adam LaRoche. They are listed by highest fielding percentage. Also shown are errors made and number of innings played:

Adam LaRoche: .995 (44/7,878)

Albert Pujols: .994 (68/10,039)

Albert Gonzalez: .994 (41/7,447)

Joey Votto: .993 (26/3,740)

Price Fielder: .992 (53/6,917)

Ryan Howard: .990 (78/7,440)

And to help make sense of these numbers, I’ve included the last two Nationals’ first baseman, Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn. We remember Johnson as a solid fielder and Dunn as pretty bad:

Nick Johnson: .992 (48/5,527)

Adam Dunn: .987 (36/2,677)

These numbers don’t take into account range and a few other factors, but overall, fielding percent is a good indicator of a player’s defense. Though LaRoche might not get to the same number of balls as Adrian Gonzalez, he is better at turning them into outs.

Does that sound mediocre to you?

No, Adam LaRoche isn’t a star first baseman who will change the fortunes of the Washington Nationals with one swing of the bat. But that’s not what he is supposed to be. The Nationals have stars in right field and third base right now, and in a couple of years, the team will add another one once Bryce Harper gets a little bit of experience.

LaRoche will be asked to field his position, hit 20-25 home runs and drive in 100 runs. If he does those things, he will be among the upper third of first baseman in 2011 just like he was last year.

And that, no matter how you slice it, is nowhere close to mediocre.

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As we all wait for the Washington Nationals to announce the signing of first baseman Adam LaRoche to a two-year contract—what is taking so long, anyway? I thought it might be fun to take a peek into the team’s future to a time when LaRoche will have already come and gone.

Let’s take a look at 2014 which gives several players now in the minor leagues the time to mature and gain their footing at the major league level. I’ll project their statistics with an explanation of how I arrived at those numbers, (it will be a combination of science and hope).

The players are listed in the lineup that makes the most sense.

CF—Eury Perez

Age in 2014: 24

Bats: Right / Throws: Right

Major League experience in 2014: Second year

Projected statistics: .275-3-40, 65 stolen bases, .355 on-base percent

Perez is a product of the Dominican Republic and one of those types of players signed in quantity in the hopes of finding a quality player or two among them. After batting .287/.412/.366 with 4 homers, 58 RBI and 43 stolen bases in just 376 at-bats in the Dominican League, the then 17-year-old was moved to the United States where he spent the last two seasons playing in the rookie Gulf Coast League and for Hagerstown of the Class-A South Atlantic League.

He batted 599 times over those two seasons and hit .323/.377/.421 with 20 doubles, 10 triples, 6 home runs, 66 RBI and 80 stolen bases. Playing against superior competition in the just completed Dominican Winter League, Perez batted .345/.397/.388 with 21 stolen bases in 116 at-bats.

That’s on pace to swipe more than 100 bases over the course of a full season. He was named the Dominican Winter League Rookie of the Year.

Aaron Fitt of Baseball America referred to his speed as “elite” in a recent discussion with masn.com’s Byron Kerr. Though his defense is still a work in progress, with experience, he should become a quality major league outfielder.

If he continues to hit well, he’ll spend all of 2011 with Class-A Potomac and 2012 with Double-A Harrisburg. The 2013 season would likely be split between Triple-A Syracuse and the Nationals.

Perez is currently the team’s number eight prospect according to Baseball America. I think he will end up being a similar outfielder to Nook Logan but with a great deal more talent. As long as he continues to have a high on-base percentage, he’ll succeed in the major leagues.

2B—Stephen Lombardozzi

Age in 2014: 25

Bats: Switch Hitter / Throws: Right

Major League experience in 2014: Third year

Projected Statistics: .275-4-55, 25 stolen bases, .365 on-base percent

Most believe that Danny Espinosa is the Nationals’ heir apparent at second base, but Lombardozzi seems to be more of General Manager Mike Rizzo’s type of player. He is not only an outstanding defender but a better contact hitter. Over his minor league career, Lombardozzi has struck out just 13% of the time while Espinosa whiffs in more than 28% of his at-bats.

Lombardozzi is the model of consistency. Take a look at his offensive slash lines over his three minor league seasons:

2008 (Rookie): .283/.371/.322

2009 (Class-A): .296/.375/.395

2010 (Class-A, AA): .294/.371/.431

Further, in the recently completed Arizona Fall League, Lombardozzi batted .293/.385/.439.

Lombardozzi keeps playing, keeps getting promoted, and keeps putting up the same solid numbers season after season.

Yes, Danny Espinosa has much more power than Lombardozzi and could hit 20-25 homers per season. But the Nationals have enough power at other positions to make his home run potential unnecessary.

Winning teams need players who provide good defense and get on base, and Stephen Lombardozzi fills that need.

3B—Ryan Zimmerman

Age in 2014: 29

Bats: Right / Throws: Right

Major League experience in 2014: ninth year

Projected statistics: .300-35-120, .375 on-base percentage.

Ryan will get another contract extension sometime in the next couple of years and will continue to put up Silver Slugger offensive numbers while playing Gold Glove defense for the next decade.

RF—Jayson Werth

Age in 2014: 35

Bats: Right / Throws: Right

Major League experience in 2014: 11^th year

Projected statistics: .282-32-100, .380 on-base percent, 15 stolen bases

As long as Werth—as promised by Mike Rizzo—continues to hit well up until he is 40, then we can easily expect this type of production from him. Here’s hoping that for Rizzo’s sake he wasn’t wrong about Werth’s longevity.

LF—Bryce Harper

Age in 2014: 22

Bats: Left / Throws: Right

Major League experience in 2014: Third year

Projected statistics: .300-20-100, 15 stolen bases, .390 on-base percentage

It wasn’t too difficult to project Harper’s offensive production even though he has yet to play a game in the minor leagues, (he did bat .343/.410/.629 in the Arizona Fall League).

In his third season, 21-year-old Ken Griffey Jr. batted .327-22-100 with a .399 on-base percent. Alex Rodriguez, after playing the equivalent of two seasons in the majors batted .300-23-84 with a .350 on-base percent in year number three. He was also 21.

If we assume that Harper is going to be as good as Griffey and Rodriguez at the same age then .300-20-100 might even be underestimating his ability. I believe Harper will be a consistent .320-35-120 hitter for the foreseeable future and will anchor the Nationals’ lineup for quite some time.

1B—Tyler Moore

Age in 2014: 27

Major League experience in 2014: Second year

Projected statistics: .260-18-69, .330 on-base percentage

I’m not sure what to make of Moore. After a terrible rookie season with Vermont in 2008 (.200/.239/.306 in 71 games), he played well for Class-A Hagerstown in 2009, batting .297/.363/.447 but with just 9 homers and 87 RBI. Last season, he had a breakout season for High-A Potomac, hitting .269-31-111 and a .321 on-base percentage.

Over his minor league career, Moore has averaged .263-23-113 over 560 at-bats with 151 strikeouts and just 20 walks. He seems to be a player with immense power but with holes in his swing and a lack of patience at the plate.

I can’t say for sure that Moore will ever be an every-day major league hitter. He hits lefties better than right handers, (.294 vs. .257), so he’s not a candidate for a true platoon. His defense is acceptable but not great.

Of the positions listed, Tyler Moore and first base is the prediction of which I’m the least certain.

SS—Ian Desmond

Age in 2014: 27

Major League experience in 2014: Sixth year

Projected statistics: .280-17-55, 20 stolen bases, .330 on-base percentage

As he matures, Ian Desmond should become a quality defender, perhaps even near great if he can continue to reduce his throwing errors. Offensively though, I think he has a somewhat limited ceiling.

Over a six-year minor league career, Desmond averaged .259/.326/.388. Prior to his .330/.401/.477 2010 breakout season, four of his five yearly on-base percentages were below .321 with two being below .300. He is not going to be the type of player who will get on base a lot.

That’s okay. Batting seventh in the lineup, Desmond will give the Nationals more than enough offense to help the team win.

C—Wilson Ramos

Age in 2014: 26

Major League experience in 2014: fifth year

Projected statistics: .265-15-50, .320 on-base percent

Heading into the 2010 season, Ramos was listed by Baseball America as the 58th best prospect in the minor leagues and heads into 2011 as the Nationals’ number e prospect.

Splitting time between the Twins and Nationals, he hit .278/.305/.405 in 79 at-bats last season and over five minor league seasons batted .285/.332/.431 and averaged 15 homers and 78 RBI over 550 at-bats.

I am low-balling Ramos’ statistics in the above predictions only because I haven’t seen enough of him. But if his indicators are true, I think he is capable of batting .270-18-70 while playing tremendous defense.

If all he eventually gives the Nationals is .250-10-50 while playing his impressive defense then the team will be just fine. Desmond at short and Ramos behind the plate play in the National League so their defense takes precedence over what they do at the plate. That said, both will do enough to help their team.

Of these eight players, five will give the Nationals quality on-base percentages while five will give the team at least league-average power. Perhaps most importantly, seven are “plus” major league defenders.

If Tyler Moore is a better player than I foresee—or if the Nationals bring in a quality first baseman from the outside—this could be a contending offense. They have the right mix of power, contact and average to win a division if the pitching staff matures at the same rate.

We’ll look at them next time.

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It’s been six years since baseball returned to Washington, and with its roots now firmly planted deep into the the city’s personality, it’s time to once and for all declare that Baltimore is for the birds.

As a young man growing up in Washington,  Baltimore seemed strictly “second-city.” Our airport was “National” and theirs was “Friendship.” We had Captain Tugg to watch after school on television while they had Captain Chesapeake, a guy with a peanut shell taped to his nose. We had the United States Capitol building and they had all those little white marble stoops the dotted pretty much every street in the inner city. 

Our city was named after the man who won the Revolutionary War. Their city was named after a British Lord. We were winners and they were losers.

Baltimore seemed to exist so that Washingtonians could just feel better about themselves.

My first trip into Baltimore was back in 1964. I vividly remember the Baltimore City clock tower. It had black block letters across its face, and as I stared through the windshield of my father’s Buick Wildcat, the words slowly became recognizable.

“Bromo Seltzer.”

Bromo Seltzer? “Dad,” I asked, “Why did Baltimore put ‘Bromo Seltzer’ on their city clock?” “Because,” my Dad said, with that rich, reassuring voice that all fathers had in the early ’60s, “It is a reminder to take the medicine because living in Baltimore makes you sick.”

I was just a kid, mind you, but I was pretty sure all those Senators and Congressman didn’t go home at night and drink Bromo Seltzer.

Now, that’s not why I disliked Baltimore, you understand. It was the Orioles! You see, the Senators invited them to leave St. Louis and play in our back yard, and they repaid Washington’s kindness by beating the snot out of us every time we played.

Every time.

The Orioles would trade for Frank Robinson and the Senators would trade for Greg Goosen. The Orioles would have four 20-game winners in their rotation and the Senators had four pitchers who would combine to win 20 games. In 1969, the Senators won 86 games and were competitive the entire year. The Orioles won twenty games more and went to the World Series.

That’s what made the World Series smack-down against the Mets so enjoyable, by the way. I never loved a man before, but Ron Swaboda’s catch out in right made me want to give him a man-hug.

In baseball, Washington was the weak sister. When Bob Short did to Washington what he did to Minneapolis a dozen years earlier, I was crushed. Remember, he was the Lakers’ owner who moved the team to Los Angeles, hence the name “Lakers” as in ten-thousand Minnesota lakes.

But even Bob Short’s Texas two-step couldn’t make me an Oriole fan. For five years, I rooted for the Redskins and the Bullets always and the Capitals sometimes, and spent my summers at Ocean City. But things changed in 1976.

Her name was Sharon. Having dated many girls, Sharon was the first “woman” I had gone out with. I had known her throughout high school and we had been good friends, but I was never considered to be in her league.

Sharon and I were a lot like the Senators and Orioles. My girl, and Baltimore’s team, were in a league all their own. Neither of us really tood a chance.

She was an avid Oriole fan, and wanted to see a game in Baltimore. Hmmmm. My hatred of the Orioles vs. a curvaceousness and vivacious redhead. Actually, the decision was closer than you’d think. But in the end Sharon won out and just a few days before our country’s Bicentennial she and I zipped down the parkway towards Baltimore in her yellow Volkswagen convertible. I was having a great time until we pulled into the Memorial Stadium parking lot. I got kind of clammy. My stomach began to hurt.

There before me was Memorial Stadium. It was nothing my like RFK.

RFK Stadium was at the time sleek and modern, and Memorial Stadium looked out of date, with its brick façade and 1930’s brushed aluminum lettering. I kept muttering to myself, “vivacious redhead…vivacious redhead” as we walked into the stadium.

I still don’t get it these many years later. There, in the middle of a large urban city, sitting among 35,000 people,were loudspeakers blaringJohn Denver’s “Thank God I’m A Country Boy” after each inning. I Didn’t see a single country boy in the stands. And people from Baltimore must like the sun, because there was no roof to cover the stadium and I boiled my crabcakes off.

Oh, and the game stunk. Reggie Jackson hit two home runs and Doug DeCinces made a couple of good defensive plays, but the Orioles lost something like14-6 to the Angels. But I couldn’t watch the game. I just couldn’t.

All around me were these giant Oriole bird faces shouting in colors of orange and black,  with huge grins, staring right at me! They were laughing at me because Baltimore had a baseball team and we didn’t. When we got home, the redhead wasn’t feeling very vivacious because her team had lost, and she asked me to leave so she could rest. Sigh. The Orioles were even destroying my love life!

I had to get away from that stupid bird. I moved to Pocatello, Idaho 20 years ago, where I don’t have to see that beaky bird mocking my misfortune. Alas, the wrongs of the world have been righted with baseball again being part of my life.

This time, however, the Orioles are just as bad as the Nationals. Just as Sir Peter feared, the Orioles will be but a postscript in Washington history. Way back there, in the deep recesses of Washington’s memory junk pile, next to the A, B & W Bus company, People’s Drug Stores and Glen Echo Amusement Park, will be the faint odor of the decaying memory of the Baltimore Orioles.

Thirty years from now, a young boy will dig up an old picture of his dad wearing an Oriole’s cap and, with tears in his eyes, ask “Why?” “Son,” the dad will begin, using lyrics from a song that rocked D.C. the summer of the Senators greatest year, ‘If you can’t be with the one you love, love the one you’re with.'”

Baltimore, we were lonely. We’re not lonely anymore.

Deal with it.

P.S.: Hey Baltimore, this is satire. Don’t get grumpy.

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It’s time to do a little Washington Nationals housecleaning today and cover a few things that I haven’t had time to cover in any great detail.

Well, that’s not true of course. I’ve covered all of this in great detail. But let’s cover it some more, shall we?

Adam LaRoche and first base: Once Derrek Lee signed his one-year, $8 million contract a few days ago, it seemed obvious that it was just a matter of time before Adam LaRoche signed with the Nationals. Two teams needed a first baseman and there were two decent first baseman still available.

However, the clock continues to tick and the Nationals still don’t have a first baseman. Both sides believe they hold all the negotiation cards and are not budging one bit. The team won’t give LaRoche a three-year deal because they are the only team that wants him and LaRoche won’t budge because he knows that the team faces a public relations nightmare if they begin the 2011 season with Casey Kotchman at first base.

I think LaRoche is going to get his third year, though probably as a team option with a hefty buyout. In the end, both teams need each other and all the stupidity on both sides won’t keep this deal from getting done.

Carl Pavano will choose between the Twins and Nationals: As things stand today, Washington’s offer is bigger but Pavano would rather return to the Twins. So it becomes a matter of money. If money doesn’t matter, he’ll re-sign with Minnesota. But if it does, he’ll join Jayson Werth in Washington because he, like Werth, took the biggest offer.

My question is if the Nationals “win,” who loses their spot in the rotation? John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann and Jason Marquis are safe. But the team has several young starters who need to be vetted. Are they going to be quality starters? There is only one way to find out.

Livan Hernadez is certainly not a “young starter” but he was the team’s best pitcher in 2010, winning 10 games and finishing the season as the only starter with an ERA under 4.00. He was sturdy and durable as always, pitching over 200 innings for the 10th time in his career.

So unless he implodes in spring training, he has to own that fourth spot in the rotation.

Even if Pavano doesn’t sign with the Nationals, that leaves only one spot in the rotation for Yunesky Maya and Ross Detwiler. Maya, a Cuban defector, is considered a certain number-three starter. And Ross Detwiler—the sixth overall pick in the 2007 draft—has shown enough in 24 career starts to justify a make-or-break chance to join the rotation.

And what about J.D. Martin, the 27-year-old former first-round pick who has a career 4.32 ERA in 24 starts while allowing just 2.5 walks per nine-innings? His 4.13 ERA last season was third best among the 11 pitchers who started more than four games.

And the Nationals re-signed Chien-Ming Wang last month because they have every reason to believe he will return to the major leagues sometime in 2011. Wang told the China Times over the weekend that he expected to return no later than May. With the exception of 2009 (his surgery-shortened season), Wang has averaged 14-5, 3.79 over four years with the Yankees, including back-to-back 19-win season in 2006 and 2007.

If he is 100 percent, or close to it, then Wang has to be added to the rotation.

It makes no sense to add a 35-year-old to the rotation and block Martin, Detwiler and Maya as well as essentially giving up on Chien-Ming Wang.  Here’s hoping that Pavano choose comfort over dollars and remains with Minnesota.

Who’s in left? As mentioned in several other stories, I think that Michael Morse should be the team’s every day left-fielder. Over his career, he’s averaged .291-20-85 over 162 games and last season hit 15 home runs in just 266 at-bats.

With the exception of one month, Roger Bernadina had a horrid 2010 season and yet manager Jim Riggleman has said over and over that he intends to platoon Bernadina and Morse in left. And now they have added Rick Ankiel, who in 2007-2008 hit a combined .270-36-110 in 585 at-bats, roughly a full major league season.

In the last two seasons, however, he’s hit just .232/.298/.388 with 17 home runs and 62 RBI.

Like in any job, you are judged not on what you have done but what you are doing now. That especially applies to car salesman and baseball players.

My guess is that Morse will be buried in the depth chart until management realizes that mediocre players—Bernadina and Ankiel—don’t make a mediocre team better. If Morse plays every day, he could hit .280-20-80 and give the Nationals two solid corner outfielders.

But I wouldn’t count on the team having that personnel epiphany until later in the season.

That’s a big relief: For the first time, the Nationals will have a truly effective relief corps. Here are the seven likely pitchers who will comprise the bullpen:

Cole Kimball: 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6, 18 saves (minor leagues)

Doug Slaten: 4-1, 3.10, 7.5/4.2/8.0

Colin Balester: 0-1, 2.57, 6.4/4.7/12.0

Sean Burnett: 1-7, 2.14, 7.4/2.9/8.9, 3 saves

Tyler Clippard: 11-8, 3.07, 6.8/4.8/11.1, 1 save

Drew Storen: 4-4, 3.58, 7.8/3.6/8.5, 5 saves

Henry Rodriguez: 1-0, 4.55, 8.2/4.3/10.5

If the team’s starters can just give the Nationals five or six good innings every night, the bullpen has the talent to help win a lot of games.

I think the Nationals are slowly coming together as a team. No, they aren’t going to contend in 2011 though they might—or might not—come within a few games of .500. That said, they certainly have enough quality young players to make a run towards respectability.

That’s why it is terribly important not to block the kids with potential from the major league roster because some guy near retirement has in the past not sucked some of the time.

I’d rather watch one of Yunesky Maya and Ross Detwiler succeed and the other fail then not see either of them get the chance.

Thanks, Zack! Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman reported on Sunday that not only did Zack Greinke turn down a trade to the Washington Nationals last month, he turned down a guaranteed multi-year contract extension as well.

I am so grateful that the 26-year-old saved the Nationals four top prospects and conservatively $40 million, perhaps more. You see, Greinke has pitched in seven major league seasons and had one outstanding year—in 2009—when he won the American League Cy Young Award.

In the other six seasons, however, his average season was just 10-13 with a 4.28 ERA. Over that same period, the Nationals Livan Hernandez averaged a record of 13-13, 4.37.

Last year, Hernandez had a record of 10-12, 3.66 while Greinke finished at 10-14, 4.17. Greinke made $7 million last year while Livan made less than a tenth of that.

No, Livan Hernandez is not as good as Zack Greinke. That’s what makes their similar records so disconcerting. There is just no way that Greinke was worth four prospects, especially if one of them was Jordan Zimmermann.

Sometimes, the best trades are the ones that are never made.

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Back in 2007, the Washington Nationals had a center fielder who had no power, couldn’t bunt and tried to hit left-handed pitching from both sides of the plate, neither with any success. For most of the season, his on-base percent was below .300 and yet then-manager Manny Acta publicly supported him and guaranteed that he would remain the team’s everyday center fielder.

We fans grunted and groaned because we knew he was a bad player and yet there he was, trotting out to center field for almost every game. Acta, it seemed was in love with a guy who had no talent.

But following the season, Nook Logan just disappeared into the ether of poor performance, never again donning a major league uniform.

Sometimes, fans are right.

And now, current manager Jim Riggleman is faced with a similar choice. On the one hand, he can replace the departed Josh Willingham in left field with Michael Morse, a Jayson Werth clone who over parts of six major league seasons has batted .291/.353/.456, averaging 20 homers and 85 RBI over the equivalent of a full season.

Last season, Morse batted .289/.352/519 with 15 home runs in just 266 at-bats. And while he will never win a Gold Glove in the outfield, he has yet to make an error and has a very strong arm.

Or Riggleman can go with Roger Bernadina, one of the few remaining players who was part of the organization when it still played in Montreal. Bernadina—who like Andruw Jones is from the island nation of Curacao—has roughly the same major league experience as Morse but hasn’t fared nearly as well, hitting just .246/.306/.364 with 11 home runs and 49 RBI. 

Last season, playing semi-regularly, he batted .246-11-47 with 16 stolen bases and a .307 on-base percent. Defensively, Bernadina has far better range than Morse but did make four errors last year.

Riggleman likes Bernadina because of his “untapped” potential. He is without question the most athletic player on the team and brings a ridiculously ripped physique to the clubhouse. Riggleman thinks that Bernadina—at 26—is ready to blossom and wants him in Washington when he does.

The Nationals manager doesn’t think that Morse can hit the elite pitchers in the league and so he sees him more as a platoon player, perhaps becoming the right-handed half of a platoon with Bernadina.

Let’s see if any of that makes sense. Here are the two players’ splits over their career:

Bernadina vs. Right-handed Pitching

.238/.302/.357

Morse vs. Right-handed Pitching

.279/.341/.421

Bernadina vs. Left-handed Pitching

.258/.333/.409

Morse vs. Left-handed Pitching

.313/.375/.518

Bernadina is one of those lefties who actually hits left-handers better, so platooning forces him to bat from his weaker side. Morse, on the other hand, hits both left-handers and right-handers very well.

So why would a platoon even be considered? Remember, the Nationals are floating the idea that if they can’t come to an agreement with Adam LaRoche, they will sign left-hander Casey Kotchman and platoon him and Morse at first base.

I think the most important number to compare is how well a player hits with runners in scoring position and two out. Too many players—like Adam Dunn—are All-Stars with the bases empty but end up “missing in action” when the team needs them the most.

And how does Roger Bernadina and Michael Morse fair with the game on the line?

Bernadina: .161/.235/.258

Morse: .350/.435/.500

So let me see if I can understand Jim Riggleman. Michael Morse’s career batting average is 50 points higher than Bernadina, his on-base percent is 47 points better and his slugging average is 88 points higher.

With runners on base and two out, Morse is plus-189 in batting average, plus-200 in on-base percent and plus-257 in slugging.

And yet Riggleman and the Nationals want to give Roger Bernadina 450 at-bats in 2011 and Michael Morse about 125.

What is it I’m missing here?

Certainly, Bernadina could one day become a .290-20-80 hitter who plays quality defense. But right now—today—Michael Morse has 618 at-bats worth of proof that he will hit as good as they hope Bernadina might.

Here are Morse’s career statistics based on 565 at-bats, typical for a 162-game season:

Runs: 70

Hits: 171

Doubles: 31

Triples: 2

Home Runs: 20

RBI: 84

Average / On-Base Percent / Slugging Mark: 291/.353/.456

And I’m not guessing what Morse would hit; this is what he already has hit, just over six seasons.

And to be successful in the major leagues, players need to be consistent. One of the biggest knocks on Adam LaRoche is that he doesn’t start hitting until May or June (in his first five years, he has an April batting average of just .210).

Here are Bernadina’s month-by-month statistics in 2010:

April: .143/.333/.243

May: .250/.284/.434

June: .329/.409/.476

July: .259/.274/.397

August: .255/.318/.439

September: .161/.243/.215

Bernadina was successful in just one out of six months. Other than June, he was a hindrance to the team. In a player’s first full season, September is an indicator of epic proportions. Either the player begins to figure out major league pitching or major league pitching finds holes in that player’s swing.

The above numbers tell that story all too clearly.

Now take a look at Morse’s monthly breakdown from last year:

April: .167/.167/.167 (just six at-bats)

May: .333/.455/.333

June: .361/.410/.639

July: .385/.415/.718

August: .251/.272/.460

September: .270/.375/.485

Where Bernadina had just one good month, Morse had just one bad one (I’m not counting Morse’s April because of the limited at-bats).  And still, Bernadina is ahead of Morse on the team’s depth chart (and I suppose that Rick Ankiel is as well).

So what gives? Even nationals.com’s Bill Ladson isn’t giving Morse much of a chance. Here is an excerpt from his most recent mailbag:

2. Who will be the Opening Day left fielder?
The battle will be between Ankiel and Roger Bernadina. Bernadina ended the season in a hitting slump, while Ankiel had a season he would like to forget. Whomever wins the job will be in a platoon situation with Mike Morse, who had the best season of his career.

So let me get this straight. Two players have terrible years, one has the best of his career, and the guy who succeeded gets the short end of the baseball stick?

I see a lot of Jayson Werth in Michael Morse. Both are 6”5” and 230 pounds. Both are lanky and athletic. And Werth, like Morse, didn’t get much of a chance to play early in his career. Over his first five seasons, the newest National totaled just 976 at-bats and averaged .259-17-78 over a full 162-game season (lower than Morse’s .291-20-84) and with the same .352 on-base percentage.

Defensively, however, Werth was still learning his craft. In his first five seasons, he committed 15 errors in roughly 2,300 innings (compared to Morse’s zero errors in a little less than 700).

You would think that someone with the Nationals would say, “You know, this kid has a lot of Jayson Werth in him. Let’s give him 2011 and see what he can do.” But no, it appears that’s not going to happen.

I have dug so deep into the statistics of Roger Bernadina and Michael Morse that I’m about to hit oil. There is no indicator anywhere that suggests that Bernadina will have a breakout year or that Morse won’t.

As the roster is currently constructed, the difference between a left fielder that hits .240-10-50 and one that hits .280-23-80 is the difference between another bad year and at least the chance for a competitive (read: .500) season.

I’ll bet if I look really close, I’ll find that Bernadina is really Nook Logan on steroids.

Sigh…

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I have a feeling that no matter what Adam LaRoche does as a Washington National—assuming the obvious happens and he signs with the team—there is going to be a fairly loud minority saying, “Yeah, but he’s no Adam Dunn.”

And they’ll be right, of course. Their same first name aside, they are two very different players. And yes, one of them will help his new team more than the other. And that player is Adam LaRoche.

Surprise!

First, LaRoche is not just a better defender than Dunn, he is one of the best defensive first baseman in the National League. He is especially good at guarding the line and as a left-hander, his glove is just a little closer to the ball as it is thrown across the diamond, turning a few would-be hits into outs on bang-bang plays at first.

Second, most say that Dunn—who is a premier slugger—is in a different league offensively. But is he really? Home runs are just one way of measuring a hitter’s value to their club.

Let’s compare their 2010 seasons:

Hits

Dunn: 145

LaRoche: 146

Doubles

Dunn: 36

LaRoche: 37

Triples

Dunn: 2

LaRoche: 2

Home Runs

Dunn: 38

LaRoche: 25

RBI

Dunn: 103

LaRoche: 100

Walks

Dunn: 77

LaRoche: 48

Strikeouts

Dunn: 199

LaRoche: 172

Batting Average / On-Base Percent / Slugging Average

Dunn: .260/.356/.536

LaRoche: .261/.320/.468

Their base statistics are similar. Dunn hits more home runs and walks more often but LaRoche doesn’t strike out as much. Over the course of the season, Dunn got one base about one more time per week than LaRoche. Other than that, we’re looking at comparable hitters.

But let’s look at some other numbers that tell the real story:

Here are the two player’s 2010 stats against left-handers based on a full 162 games:

Dunn: .199-30-81, 214 strikeouts

LaRoche: .264-20-115, 153 strikeouts

When a lefty was on the mound, the Nationals might have just as well batted Dunn ninth. Oh, he would hit an occasional mistake a long way, but for the most part he was a hole in the lineup when facing left-handers.

LaRoche, on the other hand, actually hits lefties better. You won’t see opposing managers bring in a left-hander with LaRoche in the box; his batting average is five points higher against them.

And when it comes to clutch hitting, there just isn’t any comparison:

With runners in Scoring Position

Dunn: .217/.335/.427

LaRoche: .306/.351/.573

With Men on Base

Dunn: .236/.357/.465

LaRoche: .288/.337/.523

And here are their stats with two outs and runners in scoring position, again based on a full 162 games:

Dunn: .169-28-144, 238 strikeouts

LaRoche: .274-48-292, 178 strikeouts

Take a look at those numbers again. LaRoche is almost twice as likely to hit a home run or drive in a base runner with two out and runners in scoring position than is Dunn.

So who is more valuable than whom?

Adam Dunn is a great guy who hits long home runs. At first glance, his stats seem impressive but after you peel away the press clippings and ESPN highlights, it becomes obvious that he is a one dimensional player.

There is a reason that he had to wait until Spring Training to sign his last contract in 2008.

Adam LaRoche, on the other hand, doesn’t do any one thing extremely well but does everything well enough. He will cut down Ryan Zimmerman’s and Ian Desmond’s throwing errors on defense and will give the Nationals a second clutch bat in the middle of the order (for all the good things he does, Jason Werth batted only .139 with runners in scoring position and two out last season).

If the Nationals can make it happen, Adam LaRoche will do a wonderful job replacing Josh Willingham’s bat in the lineup. It’s not that he’s a better hitter. He just remains healthy. Over 162 games, Willingham has averaged .265-25-82 while LaRoche batted .271-26-93.

You just never see those kind of numbers next to Willingham’s name because he misses 30 or 40 games per season due to injury.

LaRoche is like Willingham in one way: you grow to appreciate him more when watching him play every day. And when all those balls in the dirt don’t end up down the right field line, and when all those runners on second and third don’t end the inning still standing on the bag, we’ll all begin to appreciate Adam LaRoche a little more.

Perhaps we might even decide that the two year contract wasn’t long enough.

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The Washington Nationals figure they are one big bat and one top-of-the-rotation pitcher away from reaching respectability, perhaps even contending. Many believe, though, that were it not for former General Manager Jim Bowden, there would be no hole in the rotation to fill.

They point to the 2007 MLB amateur draft when the Nationals—who were holding a coveted number-six pick—drafted lefthander Ross Detwiler from Missouri State. There were many highly respected players still available when the Nationals seemingly picked Detwiler’s name out of a hat.

Almost four years later, Detwiler has yet to mature and some believe he never will. Was Bowden wrong in choosing the lanky lefty or was Detwiler the appropriate pick that year?

Many forget that the Wentzville, Missouri native was considered the second best left-hander in the draft, behind only uber-prospect David Price who went first to the Rays. But perhaps more importantly to Bowden and the Nationals, he was rated as being the third-closest prospect to the major leagues.

So really, Bowden’s choice made perfect sense.

Coming out of college, Detwiler had a four-seam fastball that topped out at 94 mph and a solid two-seam sinker. His 12-6 curve buckled knees and his change—when he threw it—was still a work in progress.

In his last two seasons in college, Detwiler went 11-9 with a 2.51 ERA, allowing just six hits per game while striking out 12. Scouts liked his deceptive delivery and his cerebral pitching style.

It was believed that while he would never be a number-one starter, he would be a solid number-two, something Washington desperately needed.

Looking back on the choice, some think that Detwiler was chosen too early, that perhaps Bowden was after a player polished enough to make it to the major leagues quickly while not costing the team a great deal of money.

It turns out that was totally untrue. Listed below are seven of the most respected mock drafts from 2007 showing where Detwiler was predicted to be drafted:

Mymlbdraft.com: Fourth (Chicago Cubs)

Outsidethebeltway.com: Second (Kansas City Royals)

John Sickels: Eighth (Colorado Rockies)

Jonathon Mayo, Mlb.com: Fifth (Baltimore Orioles)

FuturePhillies.com: Fifth (Baltimore Orioles)

SI.com: Fifth (Baltimore Orioles)

Yahoo.com: Fifth (Baltimore Orioles)

Sportingnews.com: Second (Kansas City Royals)

Of the eight mock drafts, only one had Detwiler going to a team who picked after the Nationals. There is little doubt, then, that Detwiler was a well-respected player who most considered a top-five talent.

With the Nationals’ sixth pick, these mock drafts predicted that Washington would select either Phillipe Aumont, Matt Wieters, Beau Mills or Max Scherzer.

I’m not sure why so many think that Ross Detwiler has not played well thus far in his career. Over four minor league seasons, his record is 17-17, 3.79, 10.1/3.5/8.1. Last season, splitting time with Class-A Potomac, Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, Detwiler went 3-2, 2.27, 10.0/1.9/8.0.

With the Nationals, he pitched well last season up until his last start when the Phillies clobbered him. Before that game, Detwiler had a record of 1-2 with a fine 2.52 ERA, striking out 15 in 25 innings. Even with that horrid game against Philadelphia, his ERA was still a solid 4.25.

So to those who believe that Detwiler was a bad pick, I ask who is it the Nationals should have selected? There were 24 players taken after Detwiler in the first round. Let’s see if we can find a better choice.

Remember, Bowden was not necessarily locked in on a pitcher. In fact, he said later that had they been available, he would have taken either Josh Vitters or Mike Moustakas instead. “Pitchers,” Bowden explained, “come with a much higher risk of injury than position players.”

Vitters made it to Double-A last season and batted .247-10-39, and was ranked as the 70th best prospect by Baseball America. Moustakas is ranked 80th and batted .293-15-48 for the Royals’ Triple-A club.

So both of Bowden’s first choices are doing well enough, but neither has yet to play in the major leagues like Detwiler.

Here are the 24 players taken after Detwiler:

7—Matt LaPorta is now 25 and has batted .232/.307/.388 with 19 homers in 162 major league games with Cleveland.

8—Casey Weathers has a 2-3, 3.63 record in 88 minor league games. Last season, he walked 8.2 batters per nine innings while striking out 12.1. He has yet to make it to the major leagues.

9—Jarrod Parker has done well thus far, going 17-11, 3.31 in 44 career minor league starts. However, he underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2010. He was the 36th best prospect prior to his surgery. He hasn’t pitched in the majors.

10—Madison Bumgarner made it to the majors in 2010 and went 7-6, 2.90 for the San Francisco Giants. He allowed just 2.2 walks per nine innings while striking out 7.1.

11—Phillippe Aumont was traded to Philadelphia in the Cliff Lee trade but has yet to have any real success. In three minor league seasons, Aumont has gone 9-21, 4.57, 8.7/4.8/8.8.

12—Matt Dominguez hit .252-14-81 in Double-A last season and has a career .257 batting average. He has no major league experience.

13—Beau Mills batted .241-10-72 with a .312 on-base percentage in his second year of Double-A ball last season. He hasn’t played in the major leagues yet.

14—Jason Heyward is the one player who stands out in this draft. He joined the Braves last season as a 20-year-old and batted .277/.393/.456 with 18 home runs and 72 RBI.

15—Devin Mesoraco reached Triple-A last year and hit .231 in 58 at-bats. Splitting time at three different levels, he batted .302/.377/.587.  He has no major league experience.

16—Kevin Aherns has struggled throughout his four-year career, averaging .239/.309/.348 showing little power or speed.

17—Blake Beavan went 14-8, 3.90 last year while playing at both Double-A and Triple-A. For his career, he is 33-22, 3.58 in three minor league seasons. He has yet to play in the major leagues.

18—Pete Kozma has a career minor league batting average of just .243 with a .319 on-base percent. He has yet to play above the Double-A level.

19—Joe Savery went 1-12, 4.66 for the Phillies Triple-A team. He hasn’t played in the major leagues yet.

20—Chris Withrow played in Double-A in 2010, going 4-9, 5.97.

21—J.P. Arencibia batted .143/.189/.343 For the Toronto Blue Jays in 2010.

22—Tim Alderson went 11-9, 6.03 while playing at Class-A and Double-A in the Pirates organization. He has a career 4.13 ERA in the minor leagues.

23—Nick Schmidt has gone 12-18, 4.85, 9.2/4.4/7.9 in four minor league seasons.

24—Michael Main has won 14 games with a 4.83 ERA in four minor league seasons.

25—Aaron Poreda has pitched in 14 games in the major leagues with a 2.70 ERA. He was the 63rd best prospect in 2009.

26—James Simmons had a 7-7, 5.72 record in Triple-A last season and has won 16 games in three minor league seasons. He has no major league experience

27—Rick Porcello was certainly the best player available when Washington chose Ross Detwiler but he and his agent made it clear that they were looking to break new ground with their bonus demands. Ultimately, Porcello ended up costing Detroit almost $11 million in bonus money and guaranteed major league contracts. Porcello has won 24 major league games with a career ERA of 4.43.

28—Ben Revere has played 10 games with Minnesota, batting .179/.233/.179. He has a career .328 minor league batting average but with little power.

29—Wendell Fairley has a career .267 minor league average with six home runs. He has yet to play above Class-A.

30—Andrew Backman was 10-11, 3.90 in Double-A last season, striking out 8.1 batters per nine-innings. He has yet to play in the major leagues.

So six players drafted after Detwiler, Matt LaPorta, Madison Bamgarner, Jason Heyward, J.P. Arencibia, Rick Porcello and Ben Revere, have played in the major leagues and only two—Heyward and Porcello—have succeeded. The rest have either failed to this point or simply don’t have enough games under their belt to be able to render a decision.

A few of those still in the minors—players like Jarrod Parker, Devin Mesoraco and Blake Beavan—look like they could become quality major leaguers but are still a year or more away from being ready.

And just too many of these first rounders seem headed to the minor league scrap heap. A great many of them are still at the Double-A level and a few still haven’t gotten out of Class-A.

Detwiler, on the other hand, hasn’t pitched at the Single-A level for two years.

The difference between a prospect and a player is that the prospect’s statistics get better as he is promoted and faces better competition.

In 151 innings at the Class-A level, Detwiler went 10-10, 4.64, 10.1/3.5/8.1. In his time with the Harrisburg Senators (Double-A), he improved considerably, going 2-5 but with a 2.90 ERA. His walks per nine-innings dropped to 2.6 and his strikeouts improved to 8.8. With Triple-A Syracuse, Detwiler went 5-2, 2.98 in 13 starts.

In his first 10 starts in the major leagues, Detwiler looked very much like the rookie he was. He went 0-5 with a 6.40 ERA, allowing a batting average/on-base percentage/slugging mark of .322/.379/.457.

Since then, however, Detwiler has pitched extremely well for Washington. In his last ten starts (since September 2009), he has crafted a fine 3.22 ERA and has allowed just a .252/.339/.330 batting average/on-base percentage/slugging. In those ten games, he has had just one poor outing, against the Phillies.

Detwiler has had to deal with two problems since joining the Nationals’ organization. First, the organization tried to change his unconventional delivery which caused him to lose some of his effectiveness. But they allowed him to return to his old form and he’s been sharp ever since.

Second, his hip surgery last spring caused him to lose half of the 2010 season. But he is 100 percent healthy now and should be ready to compete for a spot in the Nationals’ rotation.

And here’s the thing: he deserves that spot. He has the baseball skills to be an effective major league pitcher, and has succeeded over the last year. Going back to the minor leagues isn’t going to help him in 2011. He needs 30 starts to prove his worth to the Nationals.

Is there a chance he will fail? Sure, but the team needs to find that out now.

Yes, it would have been nice to have a more experienced starter join the rotation, but I am perfectly content going into 2011 with a starting five of Jordan Zimmermann, Jason Marquis, John Lannan, Ross Detwiler and Yunesky Maya (with Livan Hernandez as the go-to guy if someone falters or is injured).

Ross Detwiler, in spite of what we’ve heard, was the right pick with that sixth spot in the draft. Sure, Jayson Heyward seems to be the elite of that first round, but remember that 13 other teams failed to choose him as well. And the only other player who has outperformed Detwiler is Rick Porcello which the team couldn’t have signed even if they did draft him.

No, Ross Detwiler made sense, both then and now. If given the chance, he can be an effective number-three or four starter, they kind of guy who can give a team 12-13 wins and an ERA around 4.00.

Now let’s see if he’s given that chance instead of being derailed by some guy with a little more experience and an ERA over 5.00.

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It won’t be too long now before Nationals’ General Manager Mike Rizzo has completed the revamping of the team’s lineup.

Whether or not he succeeds in finding that top-of-the-rotation starter, that extra reliever or a thumping first baseman, won’t be known for some time yet.

For the most part, Nationals’ fans are a forgiving lot. Over the years, both Rizzo and former GM Jim Bowden have made some pretty bad personnel moves and they all were taken in stride.

Last season, however, fans lost patience with center fielder Nyjer Morgan.

If you look up “circuitous” in the dictionary, its definition reads, “The way that outfielder Nyjer Morgan runs towards fly balls.”

Morgan is also listed as a definition for “temper tantrum” and “fighting.”

But fans lived with all of the Morganisms as long as he hit. When that stopped, so did the fan’s patience.

See, Nationals’ fans have grown weary with the cadre of players the team has used in center field since 2005.

In the team’s final season in Montreal, Brad Wilkerson hit 32 home runs. In his first year in Washington, he batted .248-11-57. He was sent packing as part of the Alfonso Soriano trade that winter.

Late in 2005, Marlon Byrd played well in a late season trial and earned at least part of the center field job in 2006. He disappointed, batting only .223/.317/.350.

Nook Logan replaced him late in the season and batted .300/.350/.349, earning the job in 2007. It didn’t work. He batted just .265 with a .304 on-base percentage and was traded to Detroit that winter.

Brandon Watson was given a try but struggled to bat over .180 in parts of a couple of seasons.

The Nationals acquired Mets’ prized prospect Lastings Milledge in exchange for Brian Schneider and Ryan Church. He showed some promise in 2008, batting .268-14-61 with 24 stolen bases. It was assumed that he would have his breakout season in 2009.

Some breakout season.

He missed a meeting in Florida just prior to the start of the 2009 season, which riled management and ownership both, batted .167 in the first week of the season and was demoted to Triple-A Syracuse, never to be heard from again.

Willie Harris covered the position until Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett were traded by the Pirates to Washington for Joel Hanrahan and Milledge that May.

Prior to coming to Washington, Morgan hit well for the Pirates, averaging .292/.351/.397 with 30 stolen bases over a 162-game season. But in his 49 games with the Nationals in 2009 (he broke a finger while sliding into third in late August), he batted .351/.396/.435 with 24 stolen bases.

He played a gifted center field and it was assumed that he would remain there for years..

Then along came 2010.

In mid-May, the Orioles’ Adam Jones hit a ball that Morgan tried catch at the top of the right-center field wall. It bounced back onto the field, just out of his view.

Morgan, however, thought the ball went over the fence. He threw his glove to the ground and spent a good deal of time grumping and grousing and moaning and groaning before realizing the ball was in play.

It was too late, however, as Jones motored around the bases for an inside-the-park home run.

Oops.

Later in the season, Morgan was suspended for an altercation with a fan in Philadelphia. He threw a ball into the stands and unintentionally hit a fan. It cost him—and the Nationals—eight games.

Oh, and he stopped hitting.

In 509 at-bats, Morgan batted just .253/.319/.314 with 34 steals in 51 tries. He led the league in caught stealing for the second time in his four-year career. He misplayed more fly balls than usual and all too often didn’t catch up to them as he had in the past.

At the time of his outfield temper-tantrum, he was batting .274/.351/.417 and had overcome a very slow start. Over the next week, he went 2-23 with six strikeouts and was never the same player.

So what does the future hold for Nyjer Morgan and the Nationals?

Manager Jim Riggleman has made it clear that he plans to use Morgan in center in 2011, but only as a part of a platoon. 

And that, my friends, is a wonderful thing.

The simple fact is that Nyjer Morgan just can’t hit left-handers. Last season, the 29-year-old batted .273/.333/.337 against righties with 29 steals in 41 tries (71%); against lefties, however, he was abysmal, hitting just .200/.280/.252 in 135 at-bats (have you ever seen a worse slash line?). Against left-handers, Morgan is just a 50% base stealer.

For his career, the splits are even more dramatic. Against righties, he has hit .308/.361/.387 with 79 steals. When he faces left-handers, his numbers drop to .200/.292/.269.

Though he doesn’t hit particularly well with two outs and runners in scoring position (.239/.292/.321), Morgan doesn’t see those situations often as a leadoff hitter.

In games that are close or tied, however, he does well, batting .320/.384/.445.

Riggleman has said a couple of times that he intends to platoon Morgan and will likely move Jayson Werth from right to center when the Nationals face left-handed pitchers.

Based on a typical righty-lefty platoon, Morgan would get about 450 at-bats and Werth 155.

Here are their combined numbers based on their career splits:

Batting Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percent

.303/.381/.412

Hits: 195

Doubles: 34

Triples: 8

Home Runs: 8

Runs Batted In: 50

Stolen Bases: 45

Based on their career numbers, the two players will combine to give the Nationals a strong center field presence. Both bring a quality glove (Morgan with his unlimited range and Werth’s canon arm), speed on the base paths and Werth will provide the power.

Among their division rivals, the Nationals center field combo is certainly better than the Braves (Nate McLouth, .190/.298/.322) and Marlins (Scott Cousins, .297/.316/.459).

The Mets’ Carlos Beltran can be an elite player, but age and injuries makes him no better than Morgan/Werth at this stage of his career. And while Philadelphia’s Shane Victorino will provide more power and runs batted in, his batting average and on-base percent are more than 50 points lower.

There is no question that Nyjer Morgan is a flawed player. But by only facing righties, those flaws are in some cases mitigated and in others hidden altogether. His self confidence will soar and his defense will become stronger and more consistent.

And when Jayson Werth takes over when the team faces a left hander, well, you just need to sit back and enjoy a star at work.

Fear not, Nationals’ fans—another year of Nyjer Morgan is a good thing. If Michael Morse plays every day in left, he can easily hit .275-20-85 and play above average defense. And Morse doesn’t need to platoon; he hits right-handers just as well as lefties.

The only outfield part that is missing is Werth’s replacement when he moves over to center 40 or so games a year. The just acquired Rick Ankiel hits lefties even worse than Morgan, and pinch-hitter supreme Matt Stairs bats left-handed.

A year ago, I would have nominated Justin Maxwell for the job, but a .144/.305/.288 slash line from last season is just too hard to forget.

To be sure, Nyjer Morgan is not the Nationals’ long-term answer in center field. He won’t be the guy climbing the outfield walls at Nationals Park in three or four years. But for now, Morgan and forty games of Jayson Werth is certainly good enough to help the team transition into a winner.

That said, there are going to be times when you just have to close your eyes and avoid the Nyjer-mare in progress.

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