Kuzul

It is becoming painfully obvious that the Washington Nationals are doing everything they can to sign a competent major league first baseman this off season and the two players remaining—Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee—are doing everything they can to avoid signing here.

I mean, the math isn’t that difficult. The Orioles and Nationals need a first baseman and the only two left are Lee and LaRoche.

And yet the clock continues to tick. Most everyone was in agreement that the two would sign this week but as of yet all remains quiet. So what’s taking so long?

It can’t be about money. Derrek Lee wants $8-10 million, an amount both teams seem willing to pay. And it isn’t about contract length. Lee only wants a one-year deal and Adam LaRoche has already been offered a multi-year contract from the Orioles.

It’s as though both players keep waiting by the phone, hoping that some other team will sweep in the save them from the dire possibility of playing in Washington or Baltimore. But there just isn’t anyone else.

So it looks as though whichever first baseman the Nationals end up with is a player who doesn’t particularly want to be here. So if they don’t want to play in Washington, does Washington really want to watch them play?

General Manager Mike Rizzo all but promised upgrades around the diamond this off season, but other than the punch-in-the-stomach signing of Jayson Werth a month ago, nothing much has happened. Like a line of tumbling dominoes, one player after another either said no to a trade or their employers wouldn’t deal with the Nationals.

So 2011, it would appear, isn’t going to be that turnaround season we had all hoped for. Unless a handful of minor league “inventory” suddenly turns hot, the upcoming season is going to be a bridge to becoming a winning team, not a ladder.

But if a veteran first baseman won’t get the Nationals to the promised land (a .500 season), why not give the local talent one more try before bringing in the hired guns next year? Would it not make more sense to see what guys like Michael Morse can do before relegating them to part-time status?

Two good things are going to happen in 2012. First, many quality free agents will be available next fall. Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore and Edwin Jackson are just some of the names that could help fill holes on the team’s major league roster.

And second, 2012 will be the first season that the fruit of “The Plan” will begin to make a significant difference for the Nationals.

Here, take a look at which prospects should be available next season:

Chris Marrero

The 21-year-old just completed his fifth professional season and batted .294/.350/.450 for Double-A Harrisburg with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. For his career, the former Florida high schooler has averaged .281-21-91 over a 550 at-bat minor league season.

There is little doubt he won’t succeed against major league pitching. The problem has always been his fielding. Over the last two seasons, Marrero has committed a combined 38 errors.

Marrero was a Jim Bowden pick made during a time when the Nationals didn’t place any great emphasis on athleticism or defense. As a result, his best value will be as a trade-chip to an American League team. There is little doubt that he could excel as a designated hitter.

Stephen Lombardozzi

Lombardozzi is the guy who will make us all forget about Danny Espinosa when he too gets traded in the coming weeks or months. Over his three minor league seasons, Lombardozzi—also 21—has averaged .293/.373/.402 with 29 doubles, 9 triples and 21 stolen bases.

He is a defensive whiz, averaging just eight errors per season. He has a Gold Glove in him just waiting to break out.

Unlike Espinosa, who has more power but a tough time getting on base, Lombardozzi is an ideal lead off hitter who walks often and steals bases. He is the model of consistency and will be ready for the major leagues sometime late next summer.

Derek Norris

The 21-year-old Norris, who has averaged .261/.414/.462 with 25 homers and 93 RBI over 550 at-bats during his career, will begin his first season in Double-A in 2011 and should be ready for the major leagues by early 2012. Though his defense needs work, coaches and scouts are seeing improvement every season.

My guess is that his bat is so good that the Nationals will ultimately move him to another position to reduce wear-and-tear on his body. And don’t forget, the team already has Wilson Ramos (.278-1-5 in 79 major league at-bats) and Jesus Flores (.260-16-99 over 162 games) ready to share catching duties in 2012 or be used in a trade for pitching.

Bryce Harper

A lot of coaches and scouts think that Harper showed enough in the Arizona Fall League to start for the Nationals in 2012. The 18-year-old batted .343/.410/.629 with a homer and seven RBI in 35 at-bats. A strong season in the minors in 2011 and there is no reason not to believe he’ll be ready.

As a 19-year-old playing in his first year, Ken Griffey Jr. batted .264-16-61 with a .329 on-base percentage. After 200 at-bats over his first two seasons (.224-5-21), Alex Rodriguez hit .358-36-123 as a 20-year-old. I think Harper will be able to hit .275-15-60 in 2012.

Tom Milone

A John Lannan clone but with better control, the 23-year-old lefty has averaged 12-5, 2.88, 9.0/1.6/7.6 over the past two seasons at Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg. He has “advanced feel” for pitching and is able to hit his spots by changing speeds. For his career, Milone has a 7:1 strikeout to walk ration.

Milone has an average fastball and a plus-change. He added a cutter early in 2009 and since then his stats have gotten better at each level pitched.

At worst, he is another John Lannan, and the Nationals could use another guy like him in the rotation.

Cole Kimball

He was a mediocre starting pitcher for three seasons but became a quality reliever in 2009. Last season, he came out of nowhere to become part of the team’s future. Last season, Kimball pitched for Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg and went 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Playing in the Arizona Fall League, he was even better. In 11 games, he crafted a 0.75 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just two walks. Opponents batted just .186 against him.

Though he will spend some time with the Nationals in 2011, he will likely become a mainstay the following season. He has a 96-98 mph fastball and a big frame (6’3”, 240) so he should be able to maintain his power pitch throughout his career.

Sammy Solis

Solis, the Nationals’ second-round pick in last season’s amateur draft, allowed two hits and no walks while striking out three in four innings with Class-A Hagerstown last season. In the Arizona Fall League, Solis went 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA, striking out 12 in 23 innings.

At 6’5,” the lanky lefty has a deceptive motion that causes batters problems. His 92 mph fastball has “plus” movement and his curve has late action—an above average but not great pitch. He is one of those prospects who doesn’t have a really high ceiling but at the same time shouldn’t take too long to reach the major leagues. Most believe that he will be ready by 2012.

Let’s make an educated guess about the 2012 roster and see what it might look like:

Starting Rotation:

1—Stephen Strasburg: A real number-one starter

2—Jordan Zimmermann: Should be a quality number-two for years to come

3—John Lannan: A good number-four but can handle the three spot if he becomes a little more consistent

4—Yunesky Maya or Ross Detwiler: I think Maya can become a solid starter, a guy who can win 12-14 games a season.

5—Tom Milone or Sammy Solis: John Sickels grades Solis a “B” prospect (“prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role”) and requires “minimal” minor league seasoning before making it to Washington.

Without adding a free agent starter, the Nationals have seven quality pitchers for five spots in the rotation. All but one will be under 30 at the start of the 2012 season. That is certainly an above average rotation and the addition of one free agent star could make it second best in the division.

The bullpen could be even better (ages are in parenthesis)

Tyler Clippard (25) 11-8, 3.07, 6.8/4.1/11.1

Drew Storen (22) 4-4, 3.58, 7.8/3.6/8.5

Sean Burnett (27) 1-7, 2.14, 7.4/2.9/8.9

Doug Slaten (30) 4-1, 3.10, 7.5/4.2/8.0

Colin Balester (24) 0-1, 2.57, 6.4/3.7/12.0

Cole Kimball (23) 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 (in minor leagues)

Henry Rodriguez (23) 2-0, 4.26, 8.2/4.3/10.5

Talk about a group of power arms! Every one of the players had a strikeout rate above eight per nine-innings.

And by 2012, the everyday positions should look something like this:

C—Wilson Ramos & Jesus Flores: They could combine for .275-15-60 with quality defense

1B—The team has yet to add this player to their roster. Marrero just doesn’t play good enough defense and Tyler Moore (.269-31-111 in Class-A) won’t be ready until 2013 at the earliest.

2B—Stephen Lombardozzi will overtake Daniel Espinosa because he makes contact.

SS—Ian Desmond will have cut down the throwing errors by 2012 and offensively could hit as much as .275-15-75 with stolen bases.

3B—Ryan Zimmmerman should be around for a long time.

LF—Michael Morse is capable of hitting .280-25-85 if given the chance to play every day. 2011 should be the season to give him that chance, to see if he’s an everyday player.

CF—Jayson Werth has played center field before and hopefully he can again, especially if Bryan Harper makes the club in 2012.

RF—Bryan Harper won’t be a slugger in 2012, but he will lay the foundations for the future. Playing solid defense and hitting .270-15-70 will be plenty for the 19-year-old.

It’s becoming obvious that Rizzo won’t be able to change the team overnight like had been hoped; there won’t be any Zach Greinke’s or James Loney’s to be had this off season. And that’s okay. If 2012 is the year of contention, then the Nationals have to find out now if Roger Bernadina, Mike Morse and Nyjer Morgan are starters or utility players.

Once all that gets sorted out, Rizzo can make all the big-time splashy moves he needs to get the Nationals ready for the 2012 season. And I think most of us can live with one more so-so season if it is obvious that respectability is right around the corner.

And I have to believe that it is.

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The Washington Nationals are running out of time to revamp their roster for the 2011 season and frankly, they are running out of impact players to sign.

After kicking off the baseball winter meetings by signing Jayson Werth to his historic contract, they have seen the impact of that signing mitigated by a string of failures.

They kicked the tires on Cliff Lee, but say they were never serious. They agreed to a trade that would have brought Zack Greinke to Washington, but the former Cy Young award winner invoked his no-trade clause and became a Milwaukee Brewer the following day.

The Nationals tried to trade for Dodgers first baseman James Loney but that deal fell apart when Los Angeles signed a free-agent catcher, punching a hole in Washington’s prospect offer.

They got a couple of promising kids from Oakland in the Josh Willingham trade and—for whatever it’s worth—signed Rick Ankiel to a one-year deal.

And the Nationals and Orioles and Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche continue to play musical chairs around first base. Money versus length of contract keeps the players spinning. When one signs, the other will go down shortly thereafter.

Look for Derrek Lee to wear the team’s “Curly W” any day now.

And now Brandon Webb, who many believed would sign with the Nationals as sort of a yin to Chien-Ming Wang’s yang (two broken toys ready to again be played with), signed with the Rangers.

Rizzo was a man who believed he could make a splash in the baseball world this offseason; he had the money and knew which players were difference-makers. But for any number of reasons—most bad—the Nationals could be returning home with an empty quiver.

Right now, about the only player of any consequence that remains at the dance is Carl Pavano, currently with the Minnesota Twins. The 34-year-old came through for the Twins last season, going 17-11, with a 3.75 ERA. He wants a three-year deal that could top $30 million before it’s all said and done. 

If the Nationals want to make good on their promise to bring a top-of-the-rotation starter to Washington for 2011, Pavano is about their last chance to do it. Oh sure, there are a few players in the scratch-and-dent department who could—but probably won’t—fill that bill.

Will Pavano? Can Carl Pavano do enough to change the direction of the Washington Nationals, or is the person he would replace just as apt to help the Nationals toward respectability?

Pavano began his major league career in the Nationals organization in the days of “Les Expos.” He came to Montreal from Boston in the Pedro Martinez trade.

In his first five seasons, Pavano had a record of 27-37, 4.71, 10.0/3.0/6.0 and an average of just five wins per season.

He spent the next two years with Florida and did well, averaging 15-10, 3.61 and 8.8/2.1/5.8. But he parlayed those two good seasons into a four-year, $38 million deal with the Yankees, which turned out to be a big mistake by the boys from the Bronx.

Over the life of the contract, Pavano battled injuries and won just nine games with a 5.00 ERA. He missed the entire 2006 season due to injury. In 2008, he went 4-2, 5.77 with the Indians and by 2009 began to look like his old self, going 14-12, 5.10, 10.6/.1.8/.6.6.

However, he did lead the league in earned runs allowed.

Last season, he came back full force and was as good a pitcher as there was in the American League.

Over his 12-year career, he has averaged just 125 innings per season as a starting pitcher. He has allowed almost 10 hits per nine innings. He has excellent control, however, allowing just 2.3 walks per nine. But he doesn’t strike out many batters and doesn’t have that power arm that GM Mike Rizzo covets. He has struck out just 5.7 batters per nine innings in 12 seasons.

Pavano is expecting a multi-year contract and I don’t think it’s a good idea. Over his first three seasons he averaged 112 innings per year. In his second three-year stint, it was 127 innings. Then came 111 innings and finally, over the last two years, 152 innings.

There is nothing in those numbers that would suggest that Carl Pavano would be available over any length of a multi-year deal. And in those 12 career seasons, he has won more than 12 just three times.

Yes, the Nationals will cause a stir in the baseball world if they sign Carl Pavano, but it will be for the wrong reasons. Pavano doesn’t deserve a long-term contract and I hope the Nationals don’t give him one.

Here are Livan Herandez’ numbers from last season:

10-12, 3.66, 211 innings, 9.2/2.7/.4.8

And Carl Pavano’s stats from 2010:

17-11, 3.75, 221 innings, 9.2/1.5/4.8

Livan pitched the same number of innings, allowed the same number of hits per nine innings, struck out the same number and walked one more batter per game. His ERA was one-tenth of a run better.

And Livan got only the most cursory of major league contracts for 2011 while Pavano is looking for $30 million?

It won’t help the Nationals to sign Carl Pavano. They have enough starting pitching now that whoever they throw out there every fifth day has the potential to play as well and has far less chance to see his pitching arm fall off.

Let’s pass on Pavano and look for one more bat, letting the offense carry the team for one more year until Stephen Strasburg returns in 2012.

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First, here’s hoping that everyone had a joyous and Merry Christmas. I was raised an atheist during a time when teachers led a prayer and blessing over our lunch in the Fairfax County school system and today am a believer in a world where it is almost illegal to mention religion in school.

You’d think there would be some happy medium out there. Regardless, I hope all sides enjoyed their day yesterday.

Phil Wood of masn.com reported this morning that negotiations are “pretty close” between the Nationals and first baseman Derrek Lee on a one-year contract. The Orioles, however, are still in pursuit.

Wood also said that the Orioles are continuing their negotiations with Adam LaRoche, but didn’t say whether Washington also remained interested in the former Diamondback. My guess is the omission means that—at this point, at least—the Nationals are unwilling to give LaRoche anything more than a two-year contract.

Were LaRoche to sign with Washington, I could guarantee you that by the end of the season, he would have numbers very close to .260-25-90 with minimal deviation. He’s that consistent.

Lee, however, is another story. After averaging .300-.384-.534 with 33 home runs and 102 RBI over the last six seasons, he slumped to .260-19-80, .347 OBP last season with the Cubs and the Braves.

Either his injured thumb—he suffered a torn ligament early in September and had restorative surgery last month—or his advancing age turned his once potent bat soft. If it was the thumb, he is expected to be 100% this spring and the Nationals will have added another middle-of-the-order bat.

But if he’s just getting old—he will be 35 next season—then another .265-20-80 season is about all that can be expected.

It’s hard to say if a healthy Lee will return to his old self. My guess is—and it is just a guess—that he will surpass LaRoche offensively in 2011, while playing better defense. In the long term, however, LaRoche has more to offer a prospective team.

At least that is what general manager Mike Rizzo is hoping if he is able to sign him.

Wood also reported that the Nationals tried to trade for the Dodgers’ first baseman James Loney, but were thwarted when Los Angeles signed catcher Dioner Navarro. Apparently, a Nationals’ catcher was to be part of the package heading westward.

Loney, still just 26, is a four-year starter and has averaged .288-14-92 for the Dodgers. However, his numbers slipped last season and the Nationals don’t have enough offense at the other positions to be able to support Loney in the lineup. Sure, he is an RBI guy but he just doesn’t hit enough home runs to be an end-the-game-with-one-swing kind of player.

It looks like it’s going to be Derrek Lee, but it was just a week or two ago that reports had Adam LaRoche signing a multi-year deal with Orioles.

We’ll just have to wait a little longer, I guess.

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Zack Greinke got his “Welcome to Milwaukee” press conference yesterday and he seemed genuinely happy to be there. He had made it very clear over the past year or so that he wanted to play for a winner and now he has his wish.

I don’t have a problem with Greinke wanting to play for a winner and eventually forcing his trade; over the years, many star players were stuck on bad teams and several ultimately demanded a trade to get the chance to win.

I get it.

But none of those players gave up on his team because they were losers. None of them saw their numbers decline because they couldn’t give their all for a losing team.

Greinke’s Cy Young season in 2009 was special. He went 16-8 with a sparkling 2.16 ERA, striking out almost 10 batters per game while walking just two. And over the first two months of last season, he continued pitching at that same level.

But by June, he was starting to give up chunks of runs and he seemed less focused. His September ERA was 5.92 and he began to look like he didn’t care.

A year earlier, he told the Kansas City press, “I don’t want to play anywhere else,” but by the end of last season he switched agents so that his trade could come quicker. There were grumblings all summer that he had just given up.

If this is true—and I have no verifiable proof to that end—why would Brewers’ players want him on their team? And certainly, Nationals fans would have had mixed feelings about the acquisition of Greinke because of their experience with a player who not too long ago dogged it for two seasons in Washington.

I was stunned when the Nationals obtained Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez in a multi-player trade four years ago. They gave up just two relievers and a couple of utility players.

Kearns was a rising star who had averaged .265-25-95 over a 162-game season to that point in his career. His difficulties since, though, had nothing to do with desire.

Lopez, however, is another story.

He made it clear that he wasn’t happy with the trade that brought him to Washington, but he was a professional and I believed the attitude wouldn’t affect his performance.

Over his first five major league seasons, Lopez averaged .260-18-72 over 162 games and batted .291-23-85 the year before the trade. He was on his way to a similar season when he was shipped to Washington in early summer.

In 2007, his only complete season with the Nationals, Lopez batted .245/.308/.352 with nine homers and 50 RBI. At the time of his release the following year (at the trade deadline), Lopez was batting .234/.305/.314.

That’s pretty bad.

The Cardinals signed him shortly after his release, and in 156 at-bats he hit .385/.426/.538 with four homers and 21 RBI. That’s twice as many homers and runs batted in with the Cardinals in half the at-bats.

That’s pretty good.

Since then, Lopez has batted .280/.351/.392 for the Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Brewers and Red Sox, averaging 10 home runs and 60 RBI.

So in the five seasons before playing for the Nationals, he was a solid offensive shortstop. And in the two-plus years after leaving the Nationals, Lopez was a solid offensive shortstop.

But in parts of three seasons with the Nationals, he sucked big-time.

The only difference was that he didn’t want to play in Washington. And because of that, he didn’t give his teammates 100 percent.

Oh, I don’t think he realized that is what he was doing. I’m sure that in his mind, he was playing as hard as ever.

But he wasn’t.

The same thing applies to Zack Grienke: He was Cy Young himself when he felt content, but the moment he was someplace he didn’t want to be, he became the most mortal of pitchers. Beginning in June last season, his ERA was 4.92. He gave up four or more runs in 11 of his last 21 starts.

For four months, he was just another pitcher.

If the Brewers play well next season, Greinke stands a good chance of winning another Cy Young award. Over the last five seasons, he has a 3.32 ERA, which translates to about 2.82 in the National League.

He’ll be dominant.

But what if the Brewers aren’t in a pennant race? How long will it take before he loses focus and his numbers again become mediocre? Will he ask—once again—to be traded to a contender?

Zack Greinke, Felipe Lopez or any one player just isn’t worth it.

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The 2011 season can break one of two ways for the Washington Nationals. They can either take that final step towards a .500 season and use it as a conduit to future playoff contention or they can simply suck for a sixth consecutive year.

And which possibility becomes reality is dependent on who trots out to first base next Opening Day.

The Nationals have shored up enough of their offense—and will in the next month bring in enough starting pitching—that a defensive minded, 25 homer, 85 RBI type of first baseman should make the team at least good enough to take a run at respectability. Anything less and fans will still be talking in terms of “next season.”

Right now, three teams and two players are playing musical chairs with Russian roulette-type implications. The San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals are all without a first baseman and are chasing two pretty good ones: Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee.

So, what’s taking so long?

Most teams have their rosters and payrolls pretty much set by the time they return from Christmas vacation. That means that players only have a few days to finalize their contracts and find homes in their new cities.

Now, the reality is that while the Padres want a new first baseman, they probably can’t afford one. If money weren’t a problem they would never have shipped Adrian Gonzalez off to Boston. The reality then is that two teams need a first baseman and two good ones remain in the MLB cupboard (with a few more available in the scratch-n-dent bin).

The 34-year-old Lee is the short-term solution for both clubs. After averaging .292-32-85 since 2000, a little bit of age and an injured thumb slowed him down last year. He batted .260-19-80 playing for the Braves and the Chicago Cubs. He is a former Gold Glove winner.

Lee is a short-term solution because he is content with a one-year contract for “Carlos Pena money,” somewhere in the $8-10 million range. His hope is that he will be able to rebrand himself following a solid 2011 season and then sign a two or three-year deal next fall.

Over the past week or two, both Mid-Atlantic teams showed the most interest in the 30-year-old LaRoche. He has averaged .271-25-87 in his six full major league seasons and brings a glove that is almost Gold Glove quality. It makes a great deal of sense, then, to reward LaRoche with a two-year deal, perhaps with the team owning a third-year option.

Again, it’s been a couple of weeks since negotiations began between the two first basemen and the two teams. From all reports, the Orioles have in fact offered LaRoche a multi-year deal, probably for two years. The sticking point is that third year.

It has been reported that the Orioles were unwilling to include that extra year and they are now in negotiations with Derrek Lee. But those are the same reports coming out of the Nationals camp, that after initial discussions with LaRoche, the team has focused on Lee as their first baseman in 2011.

So what gives?

It would seem that LaRoche is seeking some stability after playing for four teams in five years. He wants to be able to unpack his bags and actually choose the color for his bedroom walls for once. And I don’t begrudge him that desire.

And really, I don’t see why the Nationals would have a problem with a three-year contract. He is the model of consistency. Beginning in 2006, LaRoche has batted .285, .272, .270, .277 and .261 last season.

And over the past four seasons, he has hit 21, 25, 25 and 25 home runs and drove in 90, 88, 85, 83 and 100 runs. It’s great. Just wind him up in March and watch him go.

Lee, on the other hand, had a difficult year in 2009, which could have been the result of either a damaged thumb or advancing age. If it was his thumb, then Lee should be able to hit .280-30-95; maybe better. If it’s the age, then .265-20-75 seems about right.

The problem, of course, is that no one will know until long after the contract has been signed.

The Nationals have two first basemen currently in their minor league system who could one day become major league players. Chris Marrero is 21 and just finished his first full season against Double-A pitchers, batting .294/.350/.450 with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. Over his five-year minor league career, he’s averaged .281-19-88 with a .347 on-base percentage over a full season.

But he went to the Adam Dunn school of defense and general manager Mike Rizzo has made it clear that defense and athleticism are priority talents for future National players. Thus, he has no real future in Washington. He’ll likely end up part of a trade package for a veteran player.

Tyler Moore is two years older than Marrero and played in 2010 with Potomac, a level below Marrero’s Harrisburg Senators. However, Moore was drafted out of college, so his age really isn’t an issue. Moore batted .269-31-111 for the P-Nats while garnering a solid .552 slugging mark. Moore, however, is not a great defender.

So it’s not as though a multi-year contract to LaRoche (or Lee) will block some can’t-miss prospect in the minors. Marrero is a near-certain trade chip and Moore is at least two years away from the major leagues.

My guess is that we’ll wake one morning very soon and read that the Nationals signed one of these first baseman. I wouldn’t be upset if it’s Lee but hope that it ends up being LaRoche for two years with a third-year option at $8 million per season.

If the Nationals get one of those two guys—and add that elusive starting pitcher—the winter additions plus the overall maturation of the team will make a .500 run a real possibility. If, however, the team is forced to sift through the scrap heap to find their new first baseman, a 72 to 76-win season is about all we can hope for.

So Adam, hurry up, will you? Let’s get this taken care. The Nationals need you.

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The Chicago Cubs are out of the Brandon Webb sweepstakes, leaving the Washington Nationals and Texas Rangers as the two main (and likely only) suitors remaining for the 30-year-old pitcher.

All indications are that Webb, who missed all of last season and all but one game the year before, is ready to resume normal baseball activities this spring. His doctor said he is 95 percent healthy and will be 100 percent by the time the season begins.

Two teams really want to sign him. The Texas Rangers went to the World Series last fall and are desperately trying to replace ace Cliff Lee, who spurned them for the Philadelphia Phillies. Even without Lee, the Rangers seem able to repeat their American League championship and Webb could instantly be part of a winning organization.

On the other hand, Webb, if healthy, could be the final piece that transforms a moribund losing franchise into a winner, and that might mean something to the former Cy Young Award winner. The Nationals certainly have the money to pay Webb, as their 2011 obligations are still less than last season’s 69-win team.

If Webb likes playing in front of friends and family, his hometown of Ashland, Kentucky is just a seven-hour drive from Nationals Park.

Add the fact that both Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo and Webb are Diamondback alumni, and you have two very clear options for Webb.

If Webb wants to win now, he signs with the Rangers. But if being part of the rejuvenation of a franchise is important, if being near familiar surroundings and working for people you know means anything, then Washington has to be his destination.

Webb’s agent has been very clear that he is expecting the type of money that former ace Ben Sheets got from the Oakland Athletics last season. The oft-injured Sheets, who averaged 11 wins and a 3.72 ERA over nine seasons with Milwaukee, signed a $10 million contract last year after missing all of the 2009 season due to injury.

The Athletics got hosed big time. Sheets went 4-9 with a 4.53 ERA in 20 starts.

So if the Nationals really want Brandon Webb, it’s going to cost them $8-10 million, and there is no guarantee that he’ll do anything more this season than Chien-Ming Wang did for the Nationals last year.

To be clear, when healthy, Brandon Webb is in a different class than Wang or Sheets. Over seven seasons, Webb averaged 15-11, 3.27, 8.2/3.0/7.3 for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has a near-perfect sinker and a plus fastball. He’s an innings-eater and gives up very few gap extra-base hits or home runs.

In 2007, Webb tossed three consecutive shutouts and amassed 42 consecutive scoreless innings, one of the all-time best streaks in major league history.

My guess is that Webb isn’t going to get anywhere near Ben Sheets money from last year. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if he gets $5 million or so in base salary and another $4-6 million in incentive money. At that price, the Nationals (or Rangers) can afford to take a chance that he will return to form.

There is a 50-50 chance that Chien-Ming Wang returns to pitch effectively in the major leagues this year. There is also a 50-50 chance that Brandon Webb will again dominate major leagues hitters this summer.

But there is a near 100 percent chance that one of them makes it all the way back. And if the Nationals end up with both of them, some variation or combination of the two will greatly strengthen the team.

Former starter Matt Chico was designated for assignment earlier today. Let’s see if that move was the ying for Brandon Webb’s yang.

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Shortly after former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke didn’t get traded to the Washington Nationals on Sunday, I wrote a story about the Denny McLain trade back in 1970 and suggested that had Greinke come to Washington, things would have turned out just as bad for the Nationals as it did for the Senators some 40 years earlier.

But reader “Mike K” left a comment on that story yesterday and reminded me that the trade-that-almost-was was less like the Denny Mclain for everyone-good-on-the-Senators-roster and more like a trade from the dark days of the Nationals’ former persona.

Back when they were still the Montreal Expos.

Now, I know that some of you will say that this trade occurred because Bud Selig and Major League Baseball—then the owners of the team—told General Manager Omar Minaya to begin the process of contracting the team. The Expos were to just fade away into baseball history along with the Minnesota Twins.

While that is certainly true, the fact is that the Expos were actually in a pennant race in the summer of 2002 and traded three prospects and a major leaguer to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon. At the time, Colon was 29 and had averaged 15 wins per season since the late ’90s. Halfway through the 2002 season, Colon was 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA and seemed headed for the Cy Young Award.

But he never got the chance. He was traded in late June to Montreal for first baseman Lee Stevens, second baseman Brandon Phillips, outfielder Grady Sizemore and pitcher Cliff Lee.

Yeah.

Though Stevens had averaged 21 homers and 75 RBI over the previous seven seasons, he was 34 and was batting just .190 at the time of the trade. he retired after the 2002 season.

It’s the other three that make you shake your head.

Brandon Phillips was just 21 when he was traded to Cleveland. He had averaged .286-9-62 with 28 stolen bases in three minor league seasons. He was traded to the Reds in 2006 and has since averaged .275-23-87, won two Gold Gloves and was an All Star last season.

Grady Sizemore was even younger, just 19 when the trade occurred. In three seasons, Sizemore averaged .284-5-60 with a .383 on-base percentage in the Expos farm system. He became a major league regular in 2005 and has since then averaged .276-28-85 with 28 steals and a .368 on-base percent. Like Phillips, Sizemore has won two Gold Gloves and has gone to the All Star game.

Cliff Lee averaged 6-4, 3.89 in two seasons in the Expos minor league system. He averaged 11 strikeouts per nine innings and looked like a future All Star. He joined Cleveland in 2004 and has since averaged 16-9, 3.88 for the Indians, Phillies, Mariners and Rangers, is an All Star and won the Cy Young Award in 2008.

In his half-season with Montreal, Colon went 10-4 with a 3.31 ERA. He was traded to the Chicago White Sox that winter for Rocky Biddle, Jeff Liefer and Orlando Hernandez.

Over the next three seasons, he continued to pitch well, averaging 18-11, 4.09 for the White Sox and Angels. By 2006, injuries took their toll and Colon has won just 14 games over his last four years.

There may have been more lopsided trades in major league history, but I sure can’t think of them at the moment. For a total of 10 major league wins, the Expos gave up four Gold Gloves, a Cy Young Award and five All-Star appearances.

So replace Cliff Lee with Jordan Zimmermann. Remove Brandon Phillips and insert Danny Espinosa. Forget Grady Sizemore; now it’s Drew Storen. In three or four years, Zack Greinke will be on the downside of his career and those three current Nationals will be solid major league players.

Will they be as good as those three prospects traded by the Expos? It’s hard to tell, but certainly each has the potential to be very bit as good. But really, that’s not the point. Why trade away so much talent for so much uncertainty?

With Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore, this first chapter of Washington Nationals’ history would have been far different.

Let’s make sure that the second chapter isn’t just a rewrite of the first. Keep the kids, Mike. Keep the kids.

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Zach Greinke for half of the Washington Nationals? Man, I’ve seen this story before.

Though its been reported that the Nationals and the Kansas City Royals had a trade in place before the former Cy Young Award winner turned the deal down, Nationals fans should look at the deal-that-never-was as yet one more gift this Christmas season.

Based on what has already been reported, Washington would have sent Jordan Zimmermann, one of Danny Espinosa or Ian Desmond, perhaps Wilson Ramos and a high quality, low-level minor league pitcher.

Give or take.

If in fact the Royals accepted the Nationals’ offer, than you’d have to assume that they offered more than the four players (in talent or quality) that Milwaukee ultimately gave up to get Greinke.

Based on every story I’ve read this morning, there isn’t a single Nationals media representative who isn’t happy that this deal didn’t happen.

Count me in that group. I’m old enough to remember the last time a Washington based team made a trade like this.

Late in 1970, the Washington Senators had just come off a dismal season and owner Bob Short was trying to recapture the magic of the previous year’s 86-76 finish. Denny McLain, the American League Cy Young Award winner two seasons earlier, had gotten into some trouble in 1970 that included  gambling and a ruckus with a Detroit writer.

After going 55-15, 2.37 in 1968 and 1969, he went 3-5, 4.63 in a suspension-shortened season. The Tigers were actively trying to trade him that off season but only one team was willing to take a chance on the 26-year-old.

The Washington Senators.

In a stunning move, Bob Short traded his team’s best pitcher, Joe Coleman, the starting left side of their infield, Eddie Brinkman and Aurelio Rodriguez and one of their best starter/relievers, Jim Hannan.

Brinkman, a Gold Glove quality shortstop, had always been a .200 hitter but under Ted Williams’ instruction, he had averaged .266 over the previous two seasons.

Rodriguez, obtained for fan favorite Kenny McMullen in a trade earlier that season, was also a stellar defender and batted .249-19-83, solid numbers for that era. Coleman, just 23, had averaged 11 wins for the Senators over the previous three seasons with a 3.37 ERA.

Hannan had averaged 9-8, 3.54 since 1968.

In return, the Senators received the aforementioned McLain and three guys who might have had trouble making the Tigers roster in 1971, pitcher Norm McRae, infielder Don Wert and outfielder Elliot Maddux.

It didn’t work out so well.

Maddux batted .217 with a home run in 1971. Don Wert batted .056 in his last major league season. McRae never pitched in the major leagues again.

And Denny McLain? He went 10-22 with a 4.28 ERA.

For the Tigers, Coleman won 20 games with a 3.27 ERA, and Rodriguez and Brinkman remained together for another three season in Detroit. providing steady defense and veteran leadership.

A year after the trade, the Senators were playing at Turnpike Stadium in Arlington Texas and the Tigers finished second, first and third over the next three seasons.

Sometimes, the best trades are the ones that are never made.

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I was fairly unimpressed when the Washington Nationals announced the other day that the team had re-signed Chien-Ming Wang to a one-year contract that could pay him as much as $5 million if he successfully returns to the major leagues.

I didn’t much care because I assumed that he was nowhere close to being ready, that he was still that guy who could only throw an inning or two in the Instructional League, like he did last fall. I mean, if he was healthy, he would have pitched in the Winter Leagues to prove that he was 100 percent. 

Upon his signing the first time, I immediately penciled him into the Nationals’ starting rotation by June, July at the latest. I did this because, well, that’s what the team said was going to happen.

Of course, he was unable to competitively pitch until after the season was over.

I asked masn.com’s Pete Kerzel this afternoon about Wang. He had written an excellent article about the Nationals’ rotational hopes for 2011 and he had mentioned Wang as a possibility. I explained my concern over the dearth of information about the Taiwanese right-hander and asked him point blank if the former Yankee was ready to pitch now.

He replied, “Wang threw well in Fall Instructional League in Viera, and the fact that he had multiple suitors shows how many teams are in dire need of pitching. But he liked how the Nats have [given] him the time and patience to get healthy, hence his willingness to return. If Wang can be close to the pitcher he was in New York, the Nats’ rotation improves dramatically. He was a No. 2 [or] 3 in New York, and can shoulder the load, having pitched in such a major market. A healthy Wang makes the rotation much more solid and, factoring in Strasburg, makes it a quintet that could move from solid to good. Wang is throwing with no restrictions, only has to build up his arm strength, which is what Spring Training is about.” 

It would seem, then, that Chien-Ming Wang is ready to pitch, and if he is, the Nationals just got a great deal better. This isn’t a guy who has talent but an injury robbed him of showing what he could do.

He’s already done that.

In his first 14 professional games, Wang looked as if he was worth every penny of his very large signing bonus. Pitching for Staten Island of the Low-A New York-Penn League, he had a record of 4-4 and a 2.48 ERA, allowing just eight hits and two walks per nine innings.

But his world changed in his 15th  start.

He blew out his arm that night and missed the rest of that season and all of 2001. Some believe it was just “one of those things” that could happen to any pitcher, while others—many others—blame his injury on the extreme training regimens that cause Taiwanese pitchers to break down early.

Chin-hui Tsao, then considered a better prospect than Wang, told a Denver reporter that Japanese and American training was “child’s play” compared to what the Taiwanese endured.

“I practiced hard,” he said, “When I was just 18, I threw long toss for 30 minutes. Then, I threw three hours of batting practice followed by another hour of live-session BP.” By the time these pitchers reached college, they were already damaged. 

Wang returned to Staten Island in 2002 and continued to dominate. In 13 starts, he forged a 6-1 record with an ERA of 1.72.

Over the next five seasons, Wang went 32-18 with a 3.28 ERA as he worked his way up to Triple-A Columbus of the International League.

He learned his best pitch in 2004 when former Met Neil Allen taught him a 90 miles-per-hour pseudo-fastball that rode a flat plane towards home plate only to drop about eight inches as it reached the batter.

Johan Santana called it “The Ultimate Weapon.”

Wang arrived in New York in 2005, and from that first year until 2008, his last full season, he was one of the best pitchers in the American League:

In 2008, Wang won his 50th career game, the fastest major leaguer to reach that mark since Dwight Gooden in 1986.

Wang has a fastball that is consistently in the low 90s and tops out at 95 miles-per-hour. In addition, his sinker, splitter and slider are all quality Major League pitches. It’s that straight-to-the-plate-before-it-drops-eight-inches pitch, however, that makes him special.

He is as good on the road as he is at home, and he’s as good against right-handers as he is against lefties. He’s a ground-ball pitcher who relies on his middle defense to get him outs.

Let’s compare Wang’s ground-ball percentage to some of the Nationals’ starters from last season. Note: John Lannan and Jason Marquis are considered sinker-ball pitchers with high ground-ball out percentages:

Chien-Ming Wang: 61.1% 

John Lannan: 52.7%

Jason Marquis: 49.7%

Craig Stammen: 47.1%

J.D. Martin: 36.2%

The sky was the limit for the 28-year-old, or so it seemed until that sky began to reign down upon him over the past two seasons.

In June 2008, Wang was running the bases in Houston when he tore a ligament in his right foot. Though surgery wasn’t required, he was forced to miss the rest of the season as the damaged foot healed.

Wang said that his foot was 100 percent when the 2009 season started, but something was still very wrong. After three starts, Wang’s record was 0-3 with an ERA of 34.50. He was giving up 14.1 hits and 4.2 walks per nine innings.

In the end, it became obvious that Wang’s mechanics were being altered by his foot injury from the season before. (It was altered mechanics following a broken toe that cut short the career of the great Dizzy Dean.) Southern Connecticut University did a study and found out that his release point was now five inches higher than normal.

Wang was again placed on the disabled list on July 15th and underwent shoulder surgery two weeks later. He began throwing in late December and most of his throwing was on flat ground.

Because of an embarrassment of riches, both on the field and in the bank, the Yankees chose not to tender Wang and instead filled his roster spot with one of the team’s many young talents.

Wang was supposed to take to the mound early last summer for a few rehab games before joining the Nationals in July or August. It never happened. It was a few weeks after the season ended, while playing in the Instructional League, that he pitched one inning twice.

For the Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann, arm or shoulder surgery is frightening because for him, velocity is everything. Wang, however, makes his living with his sinker and chances are he’ll return to the mound the same pitcher who left it.

Next season, the Washington Nationals could have the makings of a decent starting rotation. The starting five could include:

1. Jason Marquis

2. John Lannan

3. Jordan Zimmermann

4. Chien-Ming Wang

5. Yunesky Maya, Livan Hernandez or Ross Detwiler

Often, the difference between a competitive team and an also-ran is that fourth starting pitcher. If Wang can return to the form that allowed him to win 19 games in both 2006 and 2007, the Nationals could win—dare I say it?—more games than they lose in 2011.

Well, probably not. But I sound a little less crazy predicting it with Wang in the rotation.

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The various winter leagues don’t have much longer to run, so I thought it a good idea to take a look and see how some of the Nationals are performing this year.

A few of them completed their off seasons in the Arizona Fall League and are noted:

Roger Bernadina is batting just .208/.333/.250, but he has played in just seven games so I don’t think his numbers tell very much.

I can’t figure Bernadina out: He is without question the most chiseled of all the Nationals and is a superior athlete.

But after hitting as high as .291 last season, he started a slow downward spiral as if the National League pitchers suddenly figured something out.

Michael Burgess batted.246/.286/.477 in the Arizona Fall League with a couple of home runs in 65 at-bats.

Burgess—who is prone to the strikeout—fanned 20 times, 31 percent of the time. If Burgess makes it to the major leagues, and I am less certain of that each passing year, he is going to be a low average, low on-base percentage power bat.

Over his minor league career, he’s struck out 29% of the time, so I doubt something is suddenly going to change.

Danny Espinosa had trouble making contact in his September call-up with the Nationals and that problem continues this winter.

Though he is batting .281/.343/.483—very good numbers—he has struck out 27 times in 89 at-bats, like Burgess, 31% of the time.

His career strikeout rate stands at about 25%.

I keep waiting for Jesus Flores to blow something else out, but he is still in the lineup.

In 54 at-bats, Flores is batting .352/.379/.556 with two homers and 11 RBI. I just wonder how long it is going to take for the Nationals to feel comfortable that his injury-plagued days are behind him.

If the team is certain that he’s healthy, they can trade Wilson Ramos in a package for a quality starting pitcher. Flores, though a free swinger, is striking out just 12 percent of his at-bats.

I’m beginning to wonder if Stephen Lombardozzi isn’t the answer at second base for the Nationals and not Danny Espinosa.

A career .293/.373/.402 batter, he batted .293/.385/.439 last fall in the Arizona Fall League.

Talk about consistency: Lombardozzi has struck out in less than 10 percent of his at-bats.

He will hit fewer homers than Espinosa but won’t strike out as much. Their gloves are just about equal. Lombardozzi should be ready in 2012.

Perennial prospect Chris Marrero continues to improve in most phases of his game. In 85 at-bats, he is batting .306/.351/.424 with two homers and 16 RBI.

Like Burgess and Espinosa, though Marrero is striking out about 31 percent of the time. His bat is good enough to make it to the major leagues but he has an Adam Dunn glove at first.

Maybe he’ll be traded to an American League team one day soon.

Derek Norris just keeps on being Derek Norris.

In 54 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League, he hit .278/.403/.667 with four homers and 19 RBI; however, his strikeout rate is the highest of all the winter Nationals at 33 percent. That said, man, a .403 on-base percent.

I guess I can live with the strikeouts.

I think Eury Perez is the best pure hitter the Nationals have.

In 101 at-bats, he is batting .347/.400/.396 with 17 stolen bases. The kid is greased lightning. His 16 percent strikeout rate is livable.

In almost 1,000 career minor league at-bats, Perez is a .312/.390/.402 batter, striking out about 15 percent of the time.

He has 140 career stolen bases with an 80 percent success rate.

Wilson Ramos is proving to be a steal.

Ramos, who came to the Nationals in the Matt Capps trade last summer, is hitting .311/.367/.519 with six homers and 27 RBI in 135 at-bats.

His strikeout rate is 19%, good considering his power production this winter.

In 1,500 minor league at-bats, Ramos has batted .285/.332/.431 with 39 home runs.

Adam Carr was one of the biggest bats in college baseball, but the Nationals drafted him as a pitcher in 2006; he is finally beginning to show that the team was right.

Playing in the Arizona Fall League, Carr went 1-0, 2.08 in 13 innings. His batting average-against was a minuscule .137.

Cole Kimball used to be pretty bad starting pitcher, but in the last couple of seasons has become a solid relief pitcher with a blazing fastball.

His AFL stats were phenomenal as he crafted an ERA of 0.75 with 15 strikeouts in just 13 innings.

In his first full season as a closer, Kimball went 8-1, 2.17 with 18 saves, allowing 5.7/4.5/11.6 per nine-innings.

Forget the shaky start last September from Yunesky Maya.

The Cuban defector is now 4-1 with a 0.69 ERA, with 41 strikeouts in 39 innings. I still think that Maya can be a solid number three starter for the Nationals next season.

He was 13-4, 2.22 in the Cuban National Season and was second in strikeouts to Aroldis Chapman (now of the Reds). He pitched twice in the World Baseball Classic and did well both times.

I realize that Winter League baseball doesn’t give you the whole story about a player, but it does give you a vision into their talents.

Over the next season or two, the Nationals will become stronger with the addition of Several young players, the remnants of “The Plan.”

As much as I like Danny Espinosa, Stephen Lombardozzi seems to be a better all around player. His speed and contact ability would make him ideal to lead off for the Nationals.

Wilson Ramos will probably play 120 games in 2011, but I have this lingering hunch that if the Nationals are sure—really sure—that Jesus Flores is healthy, he could become the stop-gap until Derek Norris is ready to take over as catcher, allowing the team to trade the valuable Wilson Ramos.

I wouldn’t want to be have to play the Nationals in the next few years and to deal with their bullpen once the starter has been retired for the night.

If the Nationals don’t make any more significant trades this winter, their starting rotation will be led by John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann, Jason Marquis and Yunesky Maya. I think Maya is ready to have his major league breakout, winning 13 games with an ERA under 4.00.

But things will really get dicey when opposing teams get into the now formidable bullpen. Returning from last season are:

Drew Storen: 4-4, 3.58, 7.8/3.6/8.5

Tyler Clippard: 11-8, 3.07, 6.8/4.1/11.1

Sean Burnett: 1-7, 2.14, 7.4/2.9/8.9

Doug Slaten: 4-1, 3.10, 7.5/4.2/8.0

Colin Balester: 0-1, 2.57, 6.4/4.7/12.0

And are newest reliever:

Henry Rodriguez: 1-0, 4.26, 8.1/4.3/10.5

Notice anything unusual about these six bullpen stalwarts? They all have strikeouts per nine-innings above eight and two have strikeouts per nine of 11 or more.

In 2009, only two players with more than 10 innings had strikeout rates per nine-innings above eight, Tyler Clippard and Joel Hanrahan.

Nationals’ manager Mike Rizzo has made it clear that once he had full control over his team, changes would be made.

He would replace slow-footed defenders with strong and quick athletes. And all of those soft-tossers in the bullpen would give way to players who could throw in the high 90’s.

Mission accomplished.

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