Kuzul

After a year of trying, the Washington Nationals have finally succeeded in trading outfielder Josh Willingham. As of early this afternoon, the 32-year-old was officially an Oakland Athletic.

Coming East are pitcher Henry Rodriguez and center fielder Corey Brown.

We’ll talk about Rodriguez another day. Let’s focus on Brown for now.

Many have written today that because of his poor performance when promoted to Triple-A Sacramento this past season, he is no longer a true prospect. The 24-year-old Brown batted just .193/.253/.378 with five home runs and 20 RBI.

Clearly over matched or a slow learner?

Nationals’ general manager said on Thursday that Brown started slowly at each minor league level but in time mastered that league’s pitching. No reason to believe that won’t happen this time, he suggested.

Brown was a collegiate star at Oklahoma State and was considered a top-20 pick in the 2007 MLB amateur draft. He was in the top two or three of every meaningful offensive statistic in the Big 12 in his last year with the Cowboys. And John Sickels named him the 10th-best offensive player in the draft.

And yet the Oakland Athletics took him with the 59th pick—a compensation pick for the loss of Frank Thomas—and 10 spots after the Nationals took Michael Burgess, a far less talented player.

I guess that’s what happens when you plead “no contest” to felony battery charges when you have sex with a 14-year-old in high school after giving her alcohol. It was ugly enough that the University of Virginia withdrew their scholarship offer.

He hit well that summer of 2007, batting .268/.379/.545 with 11 home runs and 48 RBI in 59 games in the rookie-level Northwest League. Since then, he has made a steady progression towards the majors. Brown hit 30 home runs in 2008 at the Class-A level.

Last season, he hammered the Double-A Texas League, batting .320/.415/.502 with 10 homers and 49 RBI in 331 at-bats before his summer promotion to Triple-A.

To that point, he was considered a quality prospect. Sickels called him a cross between Kirk Gibson and Jeremy Burnitz. Scouts called him “toolsy” with outstanding raw power, good speed and a strong and accurate arm.

When he arrived in Sacramento last summer, it was assumed he’d be a mid-summer call-up to the Athletics next season.

And then everything went sour. I’m sure players have had a worse 40-game span at the Triple-A level but I’m having a difficult time thinking of who they were. He looked terrible.

But I believe Mike Rizzo. He struggles at first when promoted, and then he figures it out.

In his first season at Double-A, he struggled, batting just .268/.349/.488. He returned the following year, and hit .320/.415/.502. There is no reason to believe that won’t happen again in 2011.

There has also been much discussion about his high strikeout rate. To be sure, he strikes out a lot. But so did Adam Dunn. Let’s compare Dunn’s minor league statistics with Brown’s based on a 550 at-bat season (it’s easier to compare that way):

Average/On-base Percentage/Slugging Percent:

Brown: .272/.359/.497

Dunn: .304/.425/.525

Doubles:

Brown: 31

Dunn: 28

Triples:

Brown: 8

Dunn: 1

Home Runs:

Brown: 26

Dunn: 28

RBI:

Brown: 93

Dunn: 95

Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing:

Brown: 18/3

Dunn: 17/10

Walks:

Brown: 71

Dunn: 100

Strikeouts:

Brown: 170

Dunn: 125

Grounded Into Double Plays:

Brown: 5

Dunn: 14

Dunn and Brown had roughly the same number of minor league at-bats so this is a pretty good comparison.

Obviously, if you fan 50 more times in a minor league season than Adam Dunn, then yes, you have a strikeout problem. I’m not sure if that will ever get better. But there are a few players in the major leagues today who strike out 200 times and are All-Stars.

Speed is another obvious difference. Brown averaged eight triples to Dunn’s one and grounded into just five double plays versus Dunn’s 14. Dunn had a surprising number of steals, but he was thrown out often while Brown almost never was.

Both had good on-base percentages and slugging marks.

I’m not comparing Brown to Adam Dunn; they are different types of players. But their stats are similar enough that it Brown shouldn’t be written off because of 40 bad games in the minor leagues. Corey Brown was not, as some suggest, a throw-in, that fireballer Henry Rodriguez was the centerpiece of the trade.

Though I don’t think that Brown will become a star in the major leagues, he will be a solid, productive player. He will play quality defense in between Jayson Werth and Roger Bernandina or Mike Morse in a year or two and will hit well, batting around .275/.370/.500 with 20-25 home runs, 85 RBI and 25 stolen bases.

And yes, he will strike out close to 200 times. But, like Adam Dunn, he will make up for it with a higher on-base percentage.

My guess is that unless another trade happens, this will be Nyjer Morgan’s last year in Washington. When 2012 comes around, Corey Brown will be the team’s everyday center fielder.

Here’s hoping, anyway.

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Ken Rosenthal is reporting this morning that the Washington Nationals have traded Josh Willingham to the Oakland Athletics for two minor leaguers, one of whom has some major league experience. However, no word yet as to who they are.

Though I have enjoyed watching Josh play for the Nationals for the past two seasons, it makes perfect sense to move him now, a year before free agency.

First, he was physically fragile before coming to Washington and nothing has changed since he became a National. Willingham has averaged just 127 games per season for his career and that number has dropped in his two seasons with the Nationals.

There is no certainty that he will ever be able to play a full season.

Secondly, his defense is modest at best. The Nationals are trying to become more athletic and defensively minded, and right now he just doesn’t fit general manager Mike Rizzo’s vision of a quick and athletic team.

Third, Rizzo has said many times that Roger Bernadina has “Barry Bonds” defense in left field but is just “okay” in center and right. Also, Michael Morse hit 15 home runs in just 266 at bats last season; there is little doubt that if given the chance, Morse could play every day in left and produce Willingham-esque numbers, something along the lines of .280/24/80.

Further, Morse reminds me a lot of Jayson Werth four seasons ago. They have the same build, are both high-average hitters and show a great deal of power. He could blossome into a star slugger if given the opportunity.

Rizzo said yesterday that center fielder Nyjer Morgan will only play against righties in 2011 (he has a lifetime .200 batting average against lefties) and would move Jayson Werth to center against lefties. That would provide several different options with Bernadina and Morse at the corner positions.

Lastly, Willingham earned $4.6 million last season and will probably earn close to $6 million in 2011 through arbitration. If Rizzo can jettison that money, he will be in a better position to sign first baseman Adam LaRoche, whose offensive production is a little better than Willingham’s.

I love Josh Willingham, but he is not a long-term piece to the Nationals’ puzzle. The question is, who did the team get in return? I mean, “two minor leaguers” is a little vague at this point.

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He was one of the Nationals’ prized rookies. He didn’t come from a large school but was impressive enough to be selected early in the draft. By the age of 23, he was part of Washington’s rotation and though his statistics weren’t overly impressive, his overall performance was quite good.

He ended his rookie year with a 4.63 ERA and won almost as many games as he lost. He was thought to be a permanent fixture in the Nationals’ rotation until Tommy John surgery forced him to the sidelines for more than a year.

He was the team’s No. 2 starter when he went down. It took almost a year to regain his strength and control, but once he returned to the mound, he seemed to be in pre-injury form.

There is just one problem though: The Washington Nationals don’t seem particularly interested in having him return.

Matt Chico is a man without a job.

You were thinking I was talking about Jordan Zimmermann, weren’t you?

There are many similarities between Chico and Zimmermann. Both come from obscure college backgrounds. Both were highly ranked prospects. They had similar rookie statistics and identical earned run averages. They were  both just beginning to grasp what being a major league pitcher was all about when Tommy John surgery sidetracked their careers.

But that’s where the similarities end.

There was a Jordan Zimmermann watch all last summer as he regained his strength and then finally began to pitch again in the minor leagues. His return to the Nationals brought almost as much attention as Stephen Strasburg.

Almost.

Matt Chico, however, had his surgery more than two years ago. He rehabbed in the minor leagues, pitching for both Class-A Hagerstown and Double-A Harrisburg before moving on to Triple-A Syracuse. By Opening Day 2010, he was capable of being part of the team’s starting rotation.

But it never happened. Jordan Zimmermann was whisked back into the rotation the moment he was ready and Matt Chico continues his minor league banishment, lucky to remain on the 40-man roster. 

Why?

After a superb high school career, Chico was selected in the second-round of the 2001 amateur draft by the Boston Red Sox. He chose not to sign, however, and played a year for Southern Cal (6-4, 5.48) before moving on to Palomar Junior College.

He was selected by the Arizona Diamondbacks (and Mike Rizzo) in the third round of the 2003 draft and received a $365,000 signing bonus.

Over the next three seasons, Chico crafted a minor league record of 25-18, 3.43 and entered 2006 as the 112th best prospect in the major leagues and third best in the Diamondbacks’ star-studded system.

He spent 2006 at Double-A Tennessee and had a record of 7-2, 2.22, 6.9/2.3/7.0 (hits/walks/strikeouts per nine innings) by the beginning of August.

The Diamondbacks, in a pennant race and flush with prospects traded Chico and fellow pitcher Garrett Mock to the Nationals for Livan Hernandez On Aug. 6 2006.

The 2007 season was the “Year of the Great Cattle Call” for the Washington Nationals. Unable to afford any decent free-agent pitchers, then general manager Jim Bowden brought in truckloads of failed major league starters in hopes that one or two of them would make the team’s depleted rotation.

Things were so bad that Chico earned his roster spot in spring training even though he pitched poorly, going 2-2, 5.16, 11.1/3.4/4.8 in 23 innings.

All things considered, Chico’s rookie season was certainly good enough and not that much different from Jordan Zimmermann’s rookie campaign two years later. Let’s compare the two:

Record

Chico: 7-9

Zimmermann: 3-5

ERA

Chico: 4.63

Zimmermann 4.63

Percentage of Quality Starts

Chico: 32 percent

Zimmermann: 36 percent

Innings Per Start

Chico: 5.6

Zimmermann: 5.7

Hits/Walks/Strikeouts Per Nine-Innings

Chico: 9.9/4.0/5.1

Zimmermann: 9.4/2.9/9.1

Opponents Average/On-Base Pct./Slugging Pct.

Chico: .281/.354/.471

Zimmermann: .274/.332/.429

Percentage of Pitches Thrown For Strikes

Chico: 67 percent

Zimmermann: 62 percent

Chico entered 2008 as the Nationals’ No. 2 starter, and after three starts it looked like he was on a path towards continued improvement. He had an ERA of 3.72 and allowed 9.4 hits, 3.1 walks and 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

Midway through his fourth start, however, he felt a “pop” in his elbow. Two doctors examined Chico and found no structural damage, so he continued to pitch. In his last five starts, he couldn’t get anyone out. His ERA over that span was 7.85 as he allowed 15.4 hits and 7.8 walks per nine innings.

Dr. James Andrews found the damage that the others could not, and Chico underwent Tommy John surgery on July 3 2008.

He returned to the mound late in 2009 with rehab stints with Low-A Hagerstown and Double-A Harrisburg. In 61 innings, Chico went a combined 2-4, 3.96, 9.5/4.1/6.5.

Last season, Chico split time between Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, logging an effective 7-9, 3.62 season, allowing 9.3 hits and just 2.6 walks per nine-innings while striking out almost six batter per game.

And in a one-game reprieve, he threw five quality innings for the Nationals, allowing two runs and six hits (3.60 ERA). He was immediately returned to the minor leagues.

To be sure, Chico does not have the skills of Jordan Zimmermann. What he does have, however, is a deep understanding of how to throw a baseball.

In 2007, then GM Jim Bowden said, “Matt Chico has great poise on the mound and the ability to go after hitters.” Added current general manager Mike Rizzo, “Matt was learning how to pitch at the major league level, which can be tough. It’s okay to do that if the pitcher has the makeup, character and stomach for it. I think Matt is that type of pitcher.”

Chico has a fastball that can reach 94 mph but usually is in the 91 to 93 mph range. He throws a two-seam fastball, curve and a quality change-up.

Here is Chico’s TSN.ca scouting report: “Chico is gritty and has a sneaky delivery. He has a good command of his pitches and throws consistently in the low 90s. He gets punished, however, when he throws too hard and needs to mix his pitches to be successful at the major league level.”

TSN sees Chico as a “solid back of the rotation starter.”

Said Washington Post beat writer Chico Harlan a couple of years ago, “Few in baseball projected Chico to have much high-end potential, but he seemed to operate with an admirable serviceability.

“It’s easy,” Harlan said, “to envision Chico as a number-four or number-five starter.”

I am in no way suggesting that the name of Matt Chico should be uttered in the same sentence with Jordan Zimmermann. To compare them is to compare apples and oranges.

So why did I compare the two?

To show that while there is a great deal of difference in their talent, there wasn’t a great deal of difference in their rookie seasons. And if there wasn’t a great deal of difference, why did the team wait with baited breath for Zimmermann’s return while Chico’s name has barely been mentioned for more than a year?

Look, I get it. Matt Chico is not the prettiest girl at the dance. But why does he have to sit along the wall of the gymnasium, waiting for someone to ask him to dance?

He’s danced before. He’s not a great dancer but he is certainly good enough. And he might even become a good dancer if he can just get on that floor and practice.

The Washington Nationals have come a long way since those days when a green rookie coming off a bad spring could earn a spot in the starting rotation. Possible additions to the rotation now have names like Zach Greinke and Matt Garza.

That said, they haven’t come so far that they can turn their back on a 27-year-old with 40 career starts.

Players shouldn’t lose their jobs to an injury. When Jordan Zimmermann returned last summer, the Nationals unceremoniously dumped a pitcher from the rotation for him. But when Matt Chico—with 17 more career starts than Zimmermann—returned to the Nationals for a single game, he was lucky to find a locker and uniform.

Matt Chico may not be the answer to the Nationals’ rotational troubles, but he’s earned a long look before the team moves on to other options.

If Jordan Zimmermann doesn’t have to fight for his job, than neither should Matt Chico.

It’s only fair.

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Now, don’t everyone gang up on me. I’m just thinking out loud for a minute.

Since the end of the season, the Washington Nationals have been chasing a bevy of top-flight starting pitchers including the Royals’ Zach Greinke. The 26-year-old is so good that the asking price for the former Cy Young Award winner is four top prospects.

And that’s the starting point.

The Royals have been clear as to the type of players they would want in return. From the Nationals, they would want a replacement starting pitcher (possibly John Lannan, but probably Jordan Zimmermann), a middle infielder (most definitely Ian Desmond), a major league outfielder (Roger Bernadina and/or Mike Morse), a catcher (Wilson Ramos because Derrek Norris is still two years away) and a lower-level minor league outfielder, perhaps someone like Eury Perez.

I doubt they would take Lannan, who is a good number-three starter, but just a number three. Jordan Zimmermann is a borderline top-of-the-rotation starter but with Stephen Strasburg on the mend, he’ll slide down to the two-spot next season.

Though he is considered one of baseball’s best pitchers, Greinke has had only one outstanding season. In 2009, he was Cy Young himself, going 16-8, 2.16. Very impressive, indeed.

But in his other six seasons, from 2004 to 2008, and 2010, Greinke pitched well but wasn’t a star. He gave no indication that he could carry a team in a pennant race.

The Nationals have on their roster a pitcher who has done fairly well in parts of two seasons in Washington. J.D. Martin is a former first-round pick and has produced as a minor-league free agent who made it to the majors without his 96 mph fastball.

Let’s compare Greinke’s numbers (all except those from that magical 2009 season) and compare it to Martin’s efforts, both based a full 162-game season:

Greinke 10-13, 4.25, 9.6/3.4/7.4, 1.35 Whip (base runners per inning)

Martin  9-13, 4.13, 10.2/2.5/4.9   1.34 Whip

To be fair, Greinke’s sample is six times larger than Martin’s and I am in no way suggesting that they are equals when on a major league mound. That said, the internal numbers aren’t that different. Greinke gives up fewer hits but walks more batters. Their base runners allowed per inning is almost identical. And Martin’s ERA is a little lower as well.

I didn’t include Greinke’s Cy Young Award season in his career numbers because I am not sure that he can ever duplicate it. In that one season, he allowed 1.4 fewer hits and .3 walks per nine-innings while striking out 2.1 more batters. His ERA was 1.66 runs lower than his career average.

Last season, all of his internal numbers returned to career form and his ERA was the highest its been since 2005.

It seems like the Royals want four or five prospects for a pitcher that doesn’t exist. They are negotiating a trade for the 2009 Greinke who may never, probably will never, return.

Matt Garza of Tampa Bay, whose asking price is probably half that of Zach Greinke, has very similar career numbers. Let’s compare them based on a 162-game season:

Garza: 12-13, 3.97, 8.7/3.2/7.1, 1.31 Whip

Greinke: 11-12, 3.82, 9.1/2.3/7.6, 1.36 Whip

Both players are 26-years-old, both players allow about the same number of base runners per game, and both players average about the same number of wins per season.

Garza hasn’t had that really special season like Greinke but neither has he totally bombed (Greinke went 5-17, 5.80 in 2005).

I don’t understand all the love for Greinke. One season does not a career make. If the Nationals really want to trade for a pitcher, let it be Garza. He’s just as good as Greinke and can be had for much less.

And really, how much better would either of them be over a full season than J.D. Martin, at least based on past history? If they all start the same number of games, I’d say four or five games.

Is the $12 or $13 million in additional payroll costs worth four or five games next season?

Perhaps 2011 should be the last season that the Nationals can afford to look closely at pitchers like J.D. Martin, guys who aren’t great but can do quality work from the back of the rotation.

Martin is capable of a 10-10, 4.10 type of season, the kind of pitching most good teams have at the back of the rotation.

Forget Greinke, consider Garza, and give Martin a try. That’s my take, anyway.

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There are many glum faces along the National League East corridor this morning.

The best starting rotation in the league just became the best in all of baseball, perhaps the best in the last half-decade or so.

Suddenly, moves made by the other four teams—the Braves, Marlins, Mets and Nationals—seem to have gone for naught. Instead of being just a few games better than the other contenders, the Philadelphia Phillies are in a division all their own.

And the cackling can be heard straight down I-95.

Many are suggesting that the Nationals immediately stop their pursuit of pitching upgrades, that adding Carl Pavano through free agency or trading for Zach Greinke or Matt Garza is fruitless.

Cliff Lee could beat John Lannan 5-2 and Zach Greinke 3-2. A loss is a loss, regardless of its beauty. 

Moreover, the cost for those other pitchers just increased, as Lee’s suitors now turn to those four or five available top pitchers, driving up their cost.

What’s a moribund franchise to do?

The first problem is that the Jayson Werth signing will make little sense if it ends up being the only major change the Nationals make over the winter. Those $18 million dollars just can’t be justified as a stand-alone contract.

But I agree with the pundits that it doesn’t make much sense to bring in those hotshot starters if they give you only a minimally better chance to win the game.

If the Nationals open the 2011 season with just the pitchers they now have, this is how the rotation might look with projected statistics based on how they’ve performed the past two or three seasons and based on a 162-game season:

1. John Lannan: 10-14, 4.10, 9.4/3.3/4.6

Lannan’s 2010 season hurt his career numbers, but a sore elbow certainly hurt his performance last season. He was one of just a handful of pitchers to have an ERA below 4.00 in 2008 and 2009.

On a good team, Lannan could be counted on for: 12-10, 3.75 ERA

2. Jordan Zimmermann: 6-10, 4.71, 9.3/2.9/8.8

Zimmermann’s numbers are deceiving.

He’s had many great starts over his two seasons but a few rookie-roughed-up debacles skewed his stats. He’s a borderline number one starter or a top number two. 

Zimmerman’s good team stats with a little experience: 15-11, 3.44 ERA

3. Jason Marquis: 14-12, 4.37, 9.1/3.5/4.9

The above numbers are Marquis’ actual statistics from 2007-2009.

After elbow surgery and time on the disabled list last season, there is no reason to believe that Marquis cannot return to his solid—though not stellar—performances of the last five or six seasons.

4. Livan Hernandez: 10-12, 3.66, 9.2/2.7/4.8

After a few difficult seasons, Hernandez returned to form last season (see above).

He is nothing more than a number four or five starter, but he does his job effectively, pitching 200 innings, shortening the game and giving his team a chance to win.

There are a few players who might secure the final spot in the rotation:

Ross Detwiler: 3-14, 4.74, 10.3/4.2/5.2

Those numbers are ugly, but good rookie pitchers sometimes pitch ugly.

Last season, heading into his final start against the Phillies, Detwiler—the Nationals’ first-round pick in 2007—had a fine record of 1-2, 2.52.

He has shown he can be a starter in the National League. It’s just the matter of if he will.

Projected record for good team with some experience: 10-10, 4.10

Yunesky Maya: 0-3, 5.88, 10.4/3.8/4.2

Signed last summer as a free agent, Maya was one of Cuba’s best pitchers on their international traveling team.

He started five games in the minors and did well, winning a game and crafting a 3.38 ERA. He allowed just 7.6 hits per nine innings while striking out nearly eight.

This winter, he was even better.

Pitching in the Dominican Winter League, Maya went 4-1 with a 0.56 ERA, striking out a batter an inning while allowing less than four runners per game.

With the Nationals last fall, he looked nervous during his first four starts but settled down in his last game against the Mets, allowing two earned runs while striking out four in six innings.

Maya could be the key for the Nationals rotation.

He dominated during the World Baseball Classic in 2009, finishing with a 1.23 ERA. He has the talent to be a true number three starter, and that will happen once he gains experience. The question is whether he gains that experience in the minors or with the Nationals in 2011.

And if Stephen Strasburg follows fellow teammate Jordan Zimmermann, he will return from Tommy John surgery sometime in August, further solidifying the rotation.

To be clear, the Phillies will win a lot games against a lot of different teams next season, the Nationals included. Nothing is going to change that.

Adding pitchers like Carl Pavano or Matt Garza will make the Nationals better, but not better enough to succeed within the division.

The only way the Nationals can improve now is to spend their available contract dollars—dollars that would have been spent on Cliff Lee or Matt Garza—on productive hitters.

Adam LaRoche has to be the club’s new first baseman. He can be counted on to provide 25 home runs and 100 RBI. His defense is good.

Here are my offensive projections for the team:

1B—Adam LaRoche (assuming): .265-25-90

2B—Danny Espinosa: .250-20-70, 25 steals

SS—Ian Desmond: .270-15-65, 20 steals

3B—Ryan Zimmerman: .300-30-110

LF—Josh Willingham: .265-24-75

CF—Nyjer Morgan: .270-2-40, 40 steals

RF—Jayson Werth: .290-30-100

C—Pudge and Ramos: .265-8-50

That’s a very good offense, again assuming the Nationals can sign LaRoche. But there are some power-hitting center fielders out there.

What if the Nationals were able to trade three or four prospects—like they would have for Zach Greinke—and replace Nyjer Morgan with a .280-25-75 kind of hitter?

Better yet, Jayson Werth has shown he can play center field. Move him over and let Mike Morse (15 home runs in 266 at-bats last year) play right field every day with Roger Bernandina as his backup.

That could be a formidable offense.

I believe in this team. It is one or two more good players from crossing that elusive .500 finish line.

But the Cliff Lee to Philadelphia move just increased the cost of those remaining top pitchers by 20 or 30 percent.

Forget the pitching and go with the offense, Nationals, and let all those arms culled during “The Plan” help lead you through the beginning of “Phase Two.”

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Bill Ladson of nationals.com reported on Sunday that the Washington Nationals are interested in signing first baseman Derrek Lee.

Oh, please.

If the Nationals indeed were to sign the 34-year-old, it would undo virtually all the goodwill the team received when it signed right-fielder Jayson Werth a week ago. Last Sunday, the team was talking about this being just the first step of “Phase II” of the team’s rebuilding program. No longer would the team rely on scouting and draft picks alone. They were now going after the best players available.

We are waiting, but nothing has happened. And while I understand that Adam LaRoche may receive better offers elsewhere, I can’t believe that Derrek Lee is the next-best player available.

Look, there are just too many reasons to believe the story isn’t true. First, Lee is getting old, and his stats are reflecting that. Over the last 10 seasons, Lee averaged .292/.378/.521 with 31 home runs and 95 RBI.  Last season, Lee split time with the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves and hit .260/.347/.428 with just 19 home runs and 80 runs driven in.

True, a thumb injury slowed him early in the season, but he was mostly healthy when he joined the Braves and his numbers over the last 39 games in Atlanta were only peripherally better.

His clutch-hitting statistics also dropped in 2010. In 2009, Lee batted .320/.424/.600, about as good as it gets. Last season, he hit .283/.411/.552. With the game late or close, he dropped from .302/.381/.512 to .241/.355/.484.

And while he is a former Gold Glove winner, there is no question that his glove, as well as his bat, has seen its best days.

I’m guessing that this “news” is the Nationals trying to pressure Adam LaRoche into signing with the team quickly or risk losing the opportunity altogether. Really, of the suitors sitting in his living room, the Nationals make the most sense. He could be the difference between getting better and getting good next season..

If the Nationals can’t get LaRoche and have to go “outside the box,” they have a better prospect than Lee. Prior to last season, Cantu has averaged .274-21-94 with 41 doubles and a .320 on-base percent. His first-base defense is adequate to slightly above average.

And he could come much cheaper than Derrek Lee, who would be blocking Chris Marrero and Tyler Moore if he signs a two-year deal. And he’s a good clutch hitter, much better that Adam Dunn. With two outs and runners in scoring position, he batted  .280/.358/.453, all great numbers under pressure situations.

Probably the thing that makes the least sense is that Lee is a right-handed batter. If in fact the Nationals were to sign him, they would have a righty batting second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth in the lineup.

That just doesn’t work at the major league level.

He’s old. His numbers are declining. He bats from the right side. And there are other options available.

I just can’t believe that the Nationals are really interested in Derrek Lee.

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The Kansas City Royals have made it clear that they are ready to trade star pitcher Zach Greinke right now, or maybe they won’t. Or maybe they will, only later, sometime around next season’s July 31st trade deadline.

Or not. They have him under contract for two more seasons at $13.5 million per year.

That sounds a lot like the Toronto Blue Jays just hours before Roy Halladay was shipped to the Philadelphia Phillies for a truckload of prospects.

Ken Rosenthal of foxsports.com reported last week that the Royals were seeking 4-5 players in return for their Cy Young award-winning pitcher. Today, he wrote that in return for Greinke, Kansas City would want:

1. a starting major-league pitcher to take his place,
2. a speedy center-field prospect,
3. a young middle infielder and
4. a catcher who isn’t too far away from the major leagues.

Though Greinke is just 26, he has been pitching in the major leagues for seven seasons. Over his first three years, he wasn’t very good, averaging just 8-14, 4.63, 10.0/2.3/6.4. Since 2008, however, he’s been superb, going 14-12, 3.25, 8.5/2.2/8.4.

So, just like Jayson Werth, the Nationals would be paying for just three good years.

Let’s assume the Royals would accept four players. They would first need a major-league pitcher to replace Greinke. That would probably be John Lannan. Their “speedy center fielder” could be Eury Perez (Low-A) if they didn’t need a major-league ready pitcher or Roger Bernadina if they did.

They would probably be given their choice of middle infielders Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa or Stephen Lombardozzi. They would certainly accept either Wilson Ramos or Derek Norris as their catcher.

So basically, it would cost the Nationals John Lannan, Ian Desmond, Roger Bernadina and Wilson Ramos to get Zach Greinke.

Is it worth it?

Certainly, the loss of John Lannan would hurt. Over 162 games, he has averaged nine wins and a 4.10 ERA with a slash line of 9.4/3.3/4.6. He’s just 25 and would be an ideal No. 3 or 4 starter for a good Nationals team.

The Royals have a decent shortstop in Yuniesky Betancourt (.259-16-78 but with a .298 on-base percentage) but he’s 29 and is due to make $6 million in 2012. That’s just not going to happen, not in Kansas City. Desmond would be an able replacement.

But the Nationals could easily make due without Desmond. Danny Espinosa, who has good power, a great glove and strikeout problem, could move to short and Stephen Lombardozzi (.293/.387/.415 in the Arizona Fall League) could take over at second base.

Roger Bernadina could become a .290-20-80 with 20 steals kind of outfielder or he could become a total bust. The Royals might see that too and prefer Eury Perez, the 20-year-old Dominican who just completed his fourth year of professional ball. He’s averaged .312/.390/.402 along with 17 doubles, seven triples, five homers, 55 RBI and 65 stolen bases.

I’m not sure which catcher the Royals would prefer. Derek Norris will begin the season at Double-A Harrisburg and has averaged over 162 games .261/.414/.462 with 33 doubles, 25 homers and 88 RBI. He is just 21.

Ramos is just a year older and over five minor-league seasons has averaged .285/.332/.431, 23 doubles, 14 home runs and 80 RBI. His defense is much better than Norris and already has 79 at-bats in the major leagues.

Because they need their catcher sooner rather than later, they’d likely pick Ramos (although Norris will end up being a much better hitter).

So the Nationals can add a great pitcher to the rotation and give up Lannan, Perez, Desmond and Ramos to get him. The team can afford to lose Lannan, especially when Stephen Strasburg returns. They won’t miss Bernadina and no one even knows who Eury Perez is yet. And chances are that Espinosa and Lombardozzi will be the team’s long-term double play combination anyway.

And assuming that Jesus Flores is healthy, the Nationals can wait on Norris for another year, maybe two.

Finally, after five years of waiting, Washington finally has enough prospects that they can make one of those four-for-one or five-for-one deals. But should they?

In a word, no.

Over the last three seasons, Zach Greinke has averaged 13 wins to John Lannan’s nine. The fact that both pitchers play for bad teams cancels out that part of the equation. That means that Greinke is worth about five more wins per season than Lannan.

That’s one win for Ian Desmond and one for Wilson Ramos, one more for John Lannan and the last one for Eury Perez.

It’s just not worth it. There were rumors that the Nationals could have gotten Tampa’s Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91) for Desmond and Tyler Clippard. That makes more sense. That’s the kind of trade the team should jump on.

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As the third day of baseball’s Winter Meetings come to a close, I’m going to make a couple of assumptions regarding the future of the Washington Nationals. Perhaps neither will occur, but let’s assume for a moment that they will.

First, I fully expect that the Nats will sign Adam LaRoche as the team’s first baseman, probably a two-year deal for $15 million or so.

Second, I think that Josh Willingham will remain as the team’s left fielder in spite of reports that he will be traded if the team signs a significant bat to play at first (like LaRoche).

Take a look at the Nationals probable lineup for next season, assuming LaRoche and Willingham are with the team.

The statistics are the player’s 2010 numbers based on them playing a full season. I chose to use Nyjer Morgan’s career average over 162 games because I don’t think it is possible for him to have another season as bad as last year:

CF  Nyjer Morgan: .283/.344/.360   2 HR  36 RBI  44 SB

SS  Ian Desmond: .269/.308/.392  10 HR  65 RBI  17 SB

3B  Ryan Zimmerman: .307/.388/.510  29 HR  98 RBI 4 SB

RF  Jayson Werth: .296/.388/.532  27 HR  85 RBI  13 SB

LF  Josh Willingham: .268/.389/.459  24 HR  81 RBI  8 SB

1B  Adam LaRoche: .261/.320/.468  27 HR  109 RBI  0 SB

2B  Danny Espinosa: .214/.277/.447  35 HR  87 RBI  0 SB

C    Pudge/Ramos: .267/.298/.355  7 HR  62 RBI  3 SB

A couple of caveats regarding the numbers: all eight players’ stats are based on 162 games so Zimmerman’s numbers for example reflect four additional home runs and 13 more RBI.

Secondly, Espinosa’s stats were based on a relatively small sampling, so his home run total (35) and stolen bases (0) are skewed. I expect him to hit 25 homers and steal 25 bases next year if he’s playing every day.

That can be a very productive lineup in 2011 if Nyjer Morgan returns to form, something I think he can do. And any team that can bat Adam LaRoche sixth is going to score a lot of runs.

If Willingham stays, manager Jim Riggleman will have to find a way to get Michael Morse into the lineup. He said earlier this week that he hoped to find 300 at-bats for the developing slugger. There is a way he can come close to that.

Though LaRoche hits pretty well against lefties (.264/.297/.462), Morse could play 15 or so games at first against the top lefties in the league. And with Willingham’s problems remaining healthy, Riggleman could give him regular days off throughout the season, allowing Morse another 20 games in the lineup. When you add in pinch-hitting and perhaps a few games relieving Zimmerman at third, the 28-year-old could get 200 at-bats in 2011.

If Willingham is traded—a distinct possibility—I would guess that that Morse would be the everyday left-fielder. Had he played 162 games last season, he would have batted .289-30-85. In reality, a full-time Morse would likely hit around .280-25-75, roughly the same as Josh.

How good will the Nationals be in 2011? It depends on the starting pitching. Both the offense and the bullpen seem strong enough now to give the team a chance to win every night.

Right now, the starting rotation includes John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Jordan Zimmermann, Livan Hernandez and either Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler or J.D. Martin. Late in the season, of course, Stephen Strasburg returns.

Add one quality arm, someone along the lines of Matt Garza, and the Nationals are at least a .500 team, maybe better. If they do the impossible and somehow sign Cliff Lee—or trade for Zach Greinke—they could come awfully close to 85 wins.

It it difficult to believe that the Nationals could be that improved in 2011, but that of course is predicated on the team signing Adam LaRoche.

And hopefully, we’ll know in just a few days.

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The baseball world is still whining and complaining about Jayson Werth’s seven-year, $126 million contract with the Washington Nationals.

Let ’em whine, I say.

For some reason, the Nationals just can’t placate anyone, so why try? For years, the team has been slapped about because they refused to spend millions of dollars on players who wouldn’t help them become a contender.

Now the team thinks they are close enough to contending that they give a very good player $18 million a year and what happens? Those same people whine and complain that the Nationals pushed the pay scale up for the remaining free agents, costing other teams millions of dollars.

Let’s be clear: I don’t care about all the other teams. And why should I? They didn’t much care about us while they were beating our brains in on the field, filling up our stadium with their fans and mocking us off the field.

If the Mets or Angels or whoever have to pay a few million more for Carl Crawford because of the Nationals, I say that’s great.

There is no doubt that the Nationals overpaid for Jayson Werth. A couple of analysts on XM Radio said that the team gave Werth two more years and $4 million more per season than any other team; they were negotiating against themselves.

They were right but couldn’t be more wrong.

The Nationals couldn’t have signed Werth by giving him one more year at $1 more than the next closest team. No, they had to obliterate the competition and they had to do it fast. There is no doubt that the dollars and years of the contract were the absolute minimum it took to get Werth to Washington.

The only scenario that would make this a bad contract would be if this was the only contract that Washington signs this offseason. But the timing tells me that’s not going to happen. The team announced the signing on Sunday, before the winter meetings even began. This was a signal to free-agent players and their agents that the team was open for business. If a player wasn’t certain that the team was committed to winning, they are now.

Some random thoughts, in random order of course:

• Though I love Josh Willingham, now is the time to trade him. Though he isn’t Nick Johnson-fragile, he is close. The team could get two prospects in return and if they move Mike Morse to left, they wouldn’t lose much in the way of offense. Morse’s 2010 numbers (.289-15-41) works out to .289-32-90 for an entire season. No, I don’t think he’ll hit that well but he’ll hit 25 homers and drive in 80 runs easily.
• Many are upset that manager Jim Riggleman said that Nyjer Morgan was going to be the team’s center fielder next season, but really, 2010 was his first bad year. Prior to last season, Morgan averaged .303/.362/.391 with 42 stolen bases over a 162-game season. The team can afford to give him another chance with Roger Bernadina in reserve should he falter.
• I would much rather have Adam LaRoche at first the next couple of seasons than Carlos Pena. Last season, LaRoche batted .261-21-100, typical numbers for the 30-year-old. Pena, on the other hand, has seen his numbers decline each of the last four seasons.
• I hope the Nationals re-sign Chien-Ming Wang. He has said he’ll return if no one else offers him a major-league contract. He was too good over his career (and looked good during the Instructional League last fall) not to take one more chance. And while they are at it, here’s hoping the Nationals sign Brandon Webb too.
• Reports out yesterday morning hinted at a “Tyler Clippard and Ian Desmond for Matt Garza” trade. Garza, just 26, went 15-10, with a 3.91 ERA for Tampa Bay. The Nationals are deep in the bullpen and have Steve Lombardozzi ready to take over at second while Daniel Espinosa would return to his natural position, shortstop. I’d do it in a heartbeat.

I have little doubt that the Nationals will end the week a much-improved team, one that perhaps will be good enough to play .500 ball next year. That’s .500 ball without Stephen Strasburg. Imagine what they might be able to do with him in 2011.

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The “Lerner’s are cheap” mantra lasted just four days.

Jayson Werth, a late-blooming slugger who helped turn the Philadelphia Phillies into a playoff fixture, has signed a seven-year contract with the Washington Nationals that will pay him $18 million per season.

A few thoughts that are bouncing around my head:

The Nationals vastly overpaid, probably by about three years and $4 million per year. But there is no doubt that top-flight, two-way players will need an incentive to play in Washington for a couple of more years.

This is the fourteenth richest contract in the history of major league baseball.

I’m wondering how Adam Dunn is feeling right now?

I think they announced this deal today, on the eve of the Winter Meetings, to use Werth as bait for the other free agents the team is pursuing.

Matt Holiday got about the same contract last year (it was a little less) and Alfonso Soriano get about the same contract in 2007 (it was a little bit more).

His contract is the third highest of all time for outfielders.

Though Werth is a type-A free agent, the Nationals’ top pick is protected. They will lose their second-round pick.

$13 million per year is for his performance on the field and $4 million per year is for public relations.

In his three years as a starter, Werth has averaged .279/.376/.513 with 32 doubles, 32 home runs, 20 stolen bases and 91 RBI.

I have to believe that the relationship between agent Scott Boras and the Nationals has been strengthened thanks to the last two seasons of negotiations over Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.

With two outs and runners in scoring position, Werth hit .240/.400/.425 with 125 RBi in just 339 at-bats. When his team is behind, Werth has batted .279/.358/.493 with a home run every 17 at-bats.

Managers won’t be bringing in right-handers out of the bullpen late in the game against him. Last season, Werth batted .300/.382/.556 against righties and .287/.402/.556 versus lefties (Nationals’ fans went to the bathroom when Dunn faced a lefty).

Werth averages about 50 fewer strikeouts per season than Dunn.

He is successful stealing 88 percent of the time.

He crushes first-pitch fastballs and is just as good with balls down in the zone. Has tremendous patience at the plate and can carry his team for weeks at a time.

His defense is above average but not Gold Glove.

I have little doubt that Josh Willingham will now be packaged in a trade for a quality starting pitcher with Mike Morse taking over full time in left field.

I’ll post more later. If I waited to post this story until I could write something coherently after hearing the news, I would have likely waited for quite some time.

That’s how stunned I am.

Based on the dollars spent, and the length of the contract, I have to believe that this is just the beginning of the Nationals’ moves this winter.

Wow.

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