Kuzul

For the last couple of days, I have been doing a lot of writing about the loss of Adam Dunn and how that affects the Washington Nationals.

I’ve been comparing Dunn’s offensive capabilities against two of his most likely replacements, Carlos Pena and Adam LaRoche, and have come to the conclusion that even those two might be more than the Nationals need in 2011.

The Nationals are going to be a better team next season, but not so much better that they are going to be in any pennant chase, even on the periphery. So why spend $8 or $10 million on a replacement when that player will be little more than a public relations move for the fans?

There is no make-or-break player available on the free-agent market or available for trade this off season, so why not lay the foundation for bigger moves next year? Also, Stephen Strasburg won’t be back until late in 2011 and his return will be like adding a type-A free agent.

So 2012 is the future of the Washington Nationals.

Following the 2011 season, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez (now with Boston) and Albert Pujols will be free agents. Certainly, other teams will be in pursuit as well, but the Nationals would certainly have the resources to sign any one of them.

If the Nationals show improvement next season, one or more might be willing to listen.

Further, first base prospects Chris Marrero (.294-18-82) and Tyler Moore (.269-31-111) are still too young to be able to project if and when they will be able to play first for the Nationals any time soon.

So if the Nationals aren’t interested in moving either Josh Willingham or Mike Morse to first (and that seems to be the case), they need a cheap, capable first baseman who has shown in the past he can be counted on.

Enter Jorge Cantu.

Cantu, 29, has spent seven years in the major leagues, splitting time between Tampa Bay and Florida (before being traded to Texas late last season). Over a 162-game season, he has averaged .274-21-94 with 41 doubles and a .320 on-base percentage.

Offensively, he’s similar to Nick Johnson but without the walks (Johnson has averaged .270-20-80 over 162 games played).

He had an off year last season due mostly to his difficulty in learning the pitchers in the American League but his statistics with the Marlins, expanded to 162 games, were just fine. He was on track to hit .262-26-90 in a full season with Florida but his one home run in 98 at-bats with Texas derailed his season.

But as we’ve learned with Adam Dunn, power numbers don’t tell the whole story. Let’s compare Cantu’s lifetime clutch hitting stats with those of Dunn to see just how much he really will be missed.

First, let’s take a look at just their stats while playing first base. Both players have played extensively at other positions so this is how the two players’ stats would look based only time at first and averaged into a 162-game season (easier for comparison purposes)

Jorge Cantu: .285-28-92, .340 OBP and .459 slugging

Adam Dunn: .248-39-102, .376 OBP and .522 slugging

Over 162 games, and based only on offensive production while at first, the differences between the two players are not as much as you would think.

Now lets look at the clutch statistics:

Two out, runners in scoring position:

Cantu: .280/.358/.453

Dunn: .214/.429/.443

Now that’s ugly for Adam, but it gets even worse. His batting average for balls in play (strikeouts don’t effect batting average) is just .191 while Cantu’s is a robust .307.

Late in the game with the score close:

Cantu: .274/.320/.413

Dunn: .233/.382/.476

While Dunn’s batting average for balls in play is better at .295, it still pales when compared to Cantu’s .324.

When the game is tied:

Cantu: .279/.312/.464

Dunn: .247/.386/.539

Dunn’s batting average for balls in play here is just .240, 56 points below Cantu’s .296.

When team is behind:

Cantu: .274/.323/.444

Dunn: .253/.364/.511

Dunn’s .306 average when he puts the ball in play in this category is actually higher than Cantu’s .301.

So, just like Adam LaRoche and Carlos Pena, while Jorge Cantu’s offensive numbers at first glance don’t look as impressive as Dunn’s, he is a far better clutch hitter in the later innings and with the game on the line. So while we all loved Adam, he couldn’t field well and didn’t hit very well when we needed him most.

Cantu was traded by the Marlins this season in part because of the 16 errors he committed but he was playing third base in 2010. At first, he plays acceptable defense and certainly much better than Dunn.

As much as in pains me to say, Adam Dunn won’t be missed by the Washington Nationals in 2011. Either Jorge Cantu or Adam LaRoche can provide the team with more hits and runs when they are needed most, late in the game and with runners on base.

Either Cantu or LaRoche would be a good one-year stop-gap until someone better comes along. 

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Baseball’s Winter Meetings begin next week and by Thursday, the future of the Washington Nationals should be clear.

Can General Manager Mike Rizzo find a top-of-the-rotation starter to replace the injured Stephen Strasburg, and will he replace Adam Dunn with someone equally capable at first?

With Adam Dunn’s contract now off the books, the Nationals could easily add $30 to 40 million in payroll and still be one of the more underfunded teams in the Senior Circuit. And they have been trying.

The Rockies’ Jorge de la Rosa was coveted by many teams this off-season, the Nationals included. But before the team could come close to making a firm offer, he was re-signed by Colorado for two years and $22 million.

Unless something changes in the next month or so, the Nationals will head into spring training with a stable of starters that can give the team at least a chance to win every time they take the mound.

After a rough start and a trip to Double-A Harrisburg, John Lannan rebounded and had a solid second half, going 7-4, 3.42 with a .271/.312/.416 slash line. He is just 25 and continues to improve.

Jordan Zimmermann has come all the way back from Tommy John surgery and is expected to have a breakout year in 2011. Zimmermann, just 24, was shaky in his first game back against the Cardinals but pitched well for the rest of the season. He started six games and went 1-2 with a 4.00 ERA. Opponents batted just .233/.298/.476 against him while striking out eight per nine innings.

Jason Marquis’ bad start in 2010 led to elbow surgery and a stint on the injured reserve. In his first five starts, he was horrible, going 0-5, 14.33, .405/.500/.703. But from August 20 on, Marquis was solid, crafting a 2-4 record but with a 3.61 ERA and a .275/.346/.383 slash line. He’s healthy, still just 31, and should match his average over the last six seasons of 13-11, 4.49 in 2011.

Livan Hernandez returned from the dead last season and was rewarded with a raise and a major league contract for 2011, something he did not have at the start of spring training last year.

After spinning a 5.28 ERA over the previous four seasons, Livan rebounded in 2010, going 10-12 with a fine 3.66 ERA, 26th-best in the National League (only 30 pitchers with qualifying innings had an earned run average below 4.00).

That leaves one spot open in the rotation with Ross Detwiler (1-3, 4.25), J.D. Martin (1-5, 4.13) and Yunesky Maya (0-3, 5.88) as the most likely candidates to fill it.

Before getting crushed in his last game of the season, Detwiler pitched wonderfully, going 1-2, 2.52, .276/.360/.357 in seven starts. Maya looked both rusty and nervous in his three September starts after his call-up but has been dominant in the Dominican Winter League. In five starts, Maya is 3-1, 0.69, allowing a .163 batting average-against and less than one runner per inning.

And before an injury sidelined him for the rest of the season, Martin gave his team a chance to win every time he took to the mound.

Not counting his last start—when the elbow problems became acutely apparent—Martin was solid for the Nationals. In seven starts, he went 1-4 but with a 3.35 ERA and a .287/.305/.463 opponent’s slash line.

Martin is healthy and ready to pitch when spring training opens in two months. But the team continues to seek out other options for the rotation, and Martin seems to be an afterthought.

De la Rosa is two years older than Martin, and though he has pitched five more seasons in the major leagues, de la Rosa’s numbers just aren’t all that good. Sure, he’s a strikeout pitcher and can strikeout a batter with runners on base where Martin would have to allow contact to get the out, increasing the chance for runs to score.

But let’s compare the career stats of Martin and de la Rosa. Yes, I understand that the Rockies’ pitcher has a larger body of work but generally, we can get a feel for the type of pitchers they are.

ERA

De la Rosa: 5.02

Martin: 4.32

Hits per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 9.2

Martin: 10.2

Walks per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 4.6

Martin: 2.5

Strikeouts per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 8.0

Martin: 4.9

Base runners per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 1.52

Martin: 1.40

Batting average-against

De la Rosa: .266

Martin: .282

On-base average allowed

De la Rosa: .354

Martin: .334

Slugging average-allowed

De la Rosa: 434

Martin: .492

Percentage of balls thrown for strikes

De la Rosa: 60-percent

Martin: 63-percent

Martin gives up more hits but de la Rosa gives up many more walks. In the end, de la Rosa allows more base runners every inning, giving the opposing team more chances to score.

Of the nine categories, Martin leads in five and de la Rosa in four.

Since joining the Rockies, de la Rosa has averaged—assuming a 162 game season—15 wins and a 4.49 ERA with 1.38 base runners per inning. And the Coors Park curse isn’t in play here; he pitches better at home in Denver than on the road.

Again, based on being a starter for the entire 162 games, Martin has averaged nine wins and a 4.32 ERA with 1.39 base runners per inning.

So Martin gives up fewer runners, has a lower earned run average, is two years younger, and will make under $1 million next year.

De la Rosa has a great fastball, can embarrass hitters with his stuff, but walks more than twice as many batters as Martin.

And he’ll make $11 million in 2011.

I would advise the Nationals—yeah, they’ll listen, right—to go with the four certain starters listed above and give Martin the opportunity to win that fifth spot in the rotation along with Maya and Detwiler.

That $11 million that the Nationals didn’t spend on de la Rosa, along with the $12 million they didn’t spend on Adam Dunn, could buy two very high quality hitters, a first baseman like Adam LaRoche and an outfielder like Jason Werth or Carl Crawford.

With that kind of offense, the rotation will be good enough for the team to win more games than they lose in 2011.

And, oh yeah, they get back that kid with the 100 mph fastball sometime in August. What was his name again?

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As the gloaming of the post Adam Dunn era begins to envelop the city that once embraced him, I am somewhat struck at the gloom and doom that is being predicted for both the team and the fans of the Washington Nationals.

Mark Zuckerman adroitly put those fears into words this morning when he wrote, “Plenty of fans have been insisting they wouldn’t renew their season tickets if the Nats didn’t re-sign Dunn. How many will actually stick to their word and follow through? We’ll see, though with no Dunn and no Stephen Strasburg for the majority of 2011, there sure doesn’t figure to be a lot of buzz on South Capitol Street.

And there doesn’t figure to be a ton of optimism inside the home clubhouse among players who absolutely adored Dunn, but more importantly want to feel like this organization is moving closer to realizing actual success.” 

Of course, Mark isn’t saying that fans are going to walk away, never to return. And he isn’t suggesting that current players have given up hope for any real future for the team.

He is simply reporting what he’s seeing.

Now let me report what I have seen.

After the Washington Senators left town, I became an Atlanta Braves fan (though for the life of me I don’t understand why). People forget that they were even worse than the Senators, and they were worse for a much longer period of time.

For 16 seasons—from 1975 through 1990—the Braves had a winning season exactly twice, in 1982 and 1983. In 1975, attendance was second-worst in the National League and in 1990 they were dead last when only 980,000 fans came to Atlanta’s Fulton County Stadium.

The only constant during that period was star slugger Dale Murphy, who averaged .267-32-96 for the moribund Braves. But in 1990, Murphy was a couple of years older than Dunn is now, and the Braves traded him to their division rival Philadelphia Phillies.

Forlorn fans vowed never to watch a game again. They had enough of losing and now their only real slugger was gone. Reporters feared that without Murphy—the face of the franchise—the team would stop teetering near baseball’s abyss and fall into it.

A year later, the Atlanta Braves won 94 games and went to the World Series. Without Dale Murphy, and after two decades of losing, 2.1 million fans did the tomahawk chop at Fulton County Stadium, fourth best in the league.

In 1992, the Braves returned to the World Series and drew more than three million fans, besting the rest of the league.

The rest, as they say, is history.

I lived in Seattle in the early 1980’s and the Mariners were a bad team with cheap ownership playing in the worst park I have ever seen.

From 1977 through 1995, covering 19 seasons, the Seattle Mariners had a winning season exactly twice. In 1979, they were dead last in attendance. In 1995, they drew barely a million to the Kingdome, ninth best in the league.

For years, the Mariners’ amateur draft policy was one of signability. Tremendous talent was left on the board in favor of players willing to take a smaller check. In 1979, the Mariners had the No. 1 pick in the draft and chose Al Chambers, a player that several teams had not even scouted and a couple had never heard of.

This led to a severe case of baseball apathy in Seattle. With so many outdoor activities to enjoy in the region, no one wanted to spend three hours in a concrete cavern watching a bad team play bad baseball.

Reporters worried out loud that good players would never want to come to Seattle. In 1982, the Mariners traded top reliever Bill Caudill to the Yankees for prize prospect Gene Nelson, who had dominated the Florida State League the previous year, winning 20 games with an ERA under 2.00. Nelson whined and complained about the trade, saying that he didn’t want to play baseball in Seattle.

But in 1996, a few of their prospects matured and the Mariners became a winner. They drew 2.7 million, fourth best in the American League. In 1997, they won 90 games for the first time and drew more than three million fans.

And the rest, as they say, is history.

Braves’ fans suffered for 16 years before they were able to support a winner and support they did. Mariners’ fans had to wait even longer before winning baseball came to Seattle, but once it did, they came out to the Kingdome in droves.

Currently, Washington Nationals’ fans have had to endure five losing seasons. To match the Mariners’ mark for futility, Washington would have to wait until the 2026 season before playoff baseball would come to Nationals Park.

That would be in Ryan Zimmerman’s 20th season.

Since the days of the St. Louis Browns and Philadelphia Athletics, fans swear that they’ll stop supporting their losing team, and yet tickets become impossible to find when their team starts to win.

In 2003, the Detroit Tigers won just 43 games and drew just 1.3 million fans. Three seasons later, they more than doubled their wins and doubled their attendance as well.

And in 1968, the Washington Senators won 65 games and finished dead last in American League attendance, drawing just 546,000 fans. A year later, they won 21 more games and almost doubled their attendance.

We say things when we are frustrated and Nationals fans are no exception. When things don’t go right, we swear we’ll never watch another game. And when a marquee player like Adam Dunn isn’t re-signed, we really really won’t ever watch another game.

Players like Ryan Zimmerman grumble about the team’s ability to field a winner and offer up veiled threats about their long-term desire to remain with the team.

Then a couple of free agent signings occur, along with a trade or two. A few of the kids suddenly mature, and the Nationals will win 90 games and make the playoffs.

Suddenly, 37,000 fans will pack the park every night and swear they supported the team even when they were losers. Ryan Zimmerman will tell reporters how great it is to have a first baseman who saves him six or seven errors every year.

It’s going to happen. It always has. It always will. The only question is when.

When it happens, these five years of futility will be quickly forgotten, just as it happened in Atlanta, and just as it happened in Seattle.

That’s how baseball works.

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Well, it finally happened. Adam Dunn has gone the way of Al Capone, making his living on the South side of Chicago.

And at $14 million per year for four years, he’s making Capone-type money too.

Now, let’s be objective for just a moment. This is like that time our favorite girlfriend jilted us, and we hurt and were angry, but didn’t see at the time that it was the best thing that could have happened.

Adam Dunn is one of the worst-fielding first basemen in the league. He puts up impressive numbers, but not when the game is on the line. He batted just .169 with runners in scoring position and two outs.

With the bases loaded, he was even worse, batting just .125. Dunn hit .146 in the 9th inning. A full 20-percent of his at-bats went to 0-2 and he ended up batting .139/.162/269 with three home runs and six RBI in those 108 at-bats.

His strikeouts went up last season while his on-base percentage went down.

He’ll be 36 years old in the final year of the contract.

And Dunn will earn $14 million a year?

I remember when Alfonso Soriano left Washington after the 2006 season when he hit .277-46-95 with 41 steals. He signed an eight-year, $136 million contract with the Chicago Cubs. Nationals fans were angered because of the perceived cheapness of ownership.

Soriano was 30 and supposedly in the prime of his career.

Over the four seasons he has played with the Cubbies, Soriano has aged four years, earned $72 million and averaged .271-26-70 while continuing to play poor defense. The Nationals received two top picks in the 2007 amateur draft, one of whom turned out to be Jordan Zimmerman.

Soriano’s contract—and play—has hampered the Cubs the past few seasons. They would love nothing more than finding some team to take him off of their hands. But alas, no one is stupid enough.

Earlier today, Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman said that the loss of Dunn was “a shame” because he wanted to remain in Washington. Well, he also wanted to stay in the National League. And he didn’t want to be a designated hitter at this stage of his career.

Or so he said. In other words, it was all about money.

So the Nationals saved $14 million by not signing Adam Dunn. Looking at 2009’s free agency signings, the Nationals could have added these three players for a little less than the total of Dunn’s yearly contract:

CF Marlon Byrd: .293-12-66

1B Adam LaRoche: .261-25-100

2B Kelly Johnson: .271-26-71

For $13.2 million, these three players would have given the Nationals a combined .277 batting average, 63 home runs and 237 RBI. All three are solid defenders and better than the players they would have replaced.

At a certain talent level, baseball players begin to earn more than they are worth. Adam Dunn is one of those players. Shared among those three players, $14 million would have given the Nationals 25 more home runs and 135 more RBI than Adam Dunn alone.

Sure, Dunn was a great team player and great in the clubhouse. But he couldn’t field, didn’t hit well in the clutch and played just one position.

The Nationals could have spent $14 million for one player, or they could spend the same amount for three above-average major league players.

To me, it’s a no-brainer. Put Marlon Byrd, Kelly Johnson and Adam LaRoche on the 2010 team, take away Adam Dunn, and the Nationals win 75-77 games, maybe more.

All of this, of course, presupposes that the Nationals will not sit on that saved cash and will instead sign more free agents or use it to pay players they may trade for.

Subjectively, the Nationals and their fans are smarting a bit tonight. But objectively, not signing Adam Dunn could be the turning point for this once moribund franchise.

And remember, two other teams walked away from Adam Dunn before today. I think that says far more about the player than the team he left.

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I know, I know. You’ve never heard of Tom Milone.

He’s just another no-name pitcher toiling somewhere within the deep recesses of the Washington Nationals’ minor league system.

You’ve seen the various top-20 prospect lists for 2010 and he’s nowhere to be found.

Yawn.

“Wake me when the season is over,” you might be thinking.

OK, you’ve never heard of Tom Milone. I get that. But I’m very sure that, prior to his call up in mid 2007, you had never heard of John Lannan either.

Trust me, here. You really need to know more about this 23-year-old from USC.

I have enjoyed watching Lannan pitch the last couple of years, partly because he’s good, but also because I love it when underdogs succeed at the major league level.

An 11th-round pick in 2005 out of Siena College (17-5, 3.86), Lannan was considered to be no more than another organizational arm who might one day become a lefty specialist out of the pen.

In his first two seasons (Vermont and Low-A Savannah), that is how he pitched.

In 35 starts, Lannan was just 9-13, with a 4.89 ERA. In 2007, however, he blossomed. He cut his hits per nine innings in half. He began hitting his spots.

In the span of just a couple of months, he was promoted to Double-A Harrisburg, then Triple-A Columbus, and finally to the major leagues, where he started six games for Washington.

He finished the season with a line of 12-3, 2.31 ERA, and a slash line of 6.6/3.0/5.3 (hits/walks/strikeouts per nine innings).

Lannan’s career 20-30 record and 3.89 ERA with the Nationals is deceiving.

Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum had 26 quality starts last season and former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee had 23.

Lannan had 21.

In other words, he’s still young, still learning, and when he doesn’t spot his pitches well, he still gets clobbered.

With a bit more luck and a little more offensive support, Lannan should win a dozen or so games each year for the next decade. He’s an ideal No. 4 starter.

And yes, I understand that Lannan pitched poorly earlier this season and was demoted to Double-A Harrisburg. But since his return to Washington, he has gone 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA, allowing opponents a .279 batting average, .340 on-base percent and .395 slugging mark (compared to a .327/.393/.462 and 5.76 ERA before his demotion).

I think it’s safe to say that Lannan has found whatever he had lost earlier in the season.

Milone, like Lannan, is a lanky lefty who must pitch to spots to be successful.

He is eighth all-time in games started for Southern Cal.

In 2007, he was named Pitcher of the Year in the prestigious Cape Cod League with a record of 6-1 and a 2.92 ERA. He struck out 46 and walked just seven in 52 innings.

His next summer was spent in Wenatchee, Wash., pitching in a West Coast summer league. In 51 innings, Milone went 6-1 with a 2.61 ERA.

Against some of the best college hitters, Milone combined to go 12-2 (2.81 ERA) while striking out 101 in 103 innings. He walked just 13.

But a lack of a dominating fastball, and a so-so 16-17 career record with a 4.78 ERA at Southern Cal, relegated Milone to a 10th-round afterthought in the 2008 amateur draft.

Though major league scouts didn’t think much of his ability, Milone was confident that he would succeed.

Pitching for Vermont and Hagerstown, Milone crafted a record of 1-6 but with a solid 3.51 ERA. He allowed 10.3 hits per nine-innings but just 1.3 walks.

Nationals’ scouts saw enough to promote him to High-A Potomac for the 2009 season. And just like Lannan two seasons earlier, Milone blossomed.

After watching him pitch in a bullpen session early in the year, Potomac pitching coach Paul Menhart approached Milone about adding a cut fastball to his repertoire.

Pitching to contact is fine, he said, but disguising his 87 mph fastball would help him greatly.

Milone’s cutter looks like his fastball but dives at the last second. Against right-handers, it first dives in, then away as it crosses the plate.

His ERA was 3.89 when he began to throw his new pitch in early July.

By the end of the year it had dropped to 2.91, best on the team. His batting-average against, .275 the season before, was just .252 with Potomac.

Milone’s fastball tops out at 87 mph but usually sits in the 84-86 mph range. His curve is sharp and about 10 mph slower than his fastball, providing good separation.

His change, though, is by far his best pitch, one he can throw wherever he wants and at any point in the count.

His control is remarkable. Over his minor league career, Milone has walked just 66 while striking out 271, more than a 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Milone has trouble when he’s not hitting his spots. When facing a walk, he tends to throw his fastball down the middle of the plate, a bad place for a slow fastball.

But that is a peril that all contact pitchers face. If you don’t have an “out” pitch, there just aren’t many safe pitches to throw.

Overall, Milone’s minor league numbers are very similar to those of Lannan:

Record
Lannan: 21-16 (.567)
Milone: 21-16 (.567) (no, not a misprint; exactly the same)

ERA
Lannan: 3.92
Milone: 3.04

Opponent’s Batting Average
Lannan: .258
Milone: .261

Hits/Walks/Strikeouts Per Nine-Innings
Lannan: 8.7/3.5/6.3
Milone: 8.9/1.8/7.3

Lannan and Milone are very similar pitchers.

One would think that Milone might have a major league career similar to Lannan, that of a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation starter who can be counted on to win 10 to 14 games a year.

Sure, Milone is not on any watch list and isn’t considered much of a prospect. But Lannan didn’t show up as a true prospect until the 2008 season, after he had already pitched in the major leagues.

Milone has a prospect grade of “C” and is lumped together with a bevy of other non-prospect types like Taylor Jordan, Nathan Karns, and Pat Lehman.

I am in no way suggesting that Milone is going to repeat the success of Lannan.

But he has similar tools, has even better control, and at 23 is mowing down older and more experienced opponents in the Eastern League.

Lannan was also 23 when he pitched for Harrisburg.

Yes, it seems unlikely that a 10th-rounder will eventually make the Nationals’ starting rotation, especially when you consider that the Nationals will have a solid rotation when all of the team’s walking-wounded return to the major league roster.

But isn’t that the same thing we all said about Lannan, the 11th-round selection from Siena College?

This year, Milone is 8-5 with a 2.95 ERA with the Double-A Senators. On Thursday, he pitched seven strong innings, allowing just six hits and no walks while striking out seven.

He’ll likely pitch for Triple-A Syracuse next year and will be just a phone call away from the major leagues.

Suddenly, the Nationals have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to young pitchers and it’s about time. The 2011 season is looking better and better with each passing day.

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Every morning since he was a kid, J.P. Ramirez dragged himself out of bed and headed out to the batting cage, sleep in his eyes and bat in his hand. And every morning, he put the bat on his shoulder and took a deep breath. And he began to swing.

Over and over, hour after hour, ash met leather. Line drives seared through the morning dew as they tried to escape the confines of the cage.

And he wouldn’t stop.

Over time, the bones in his fingers warped, the result of them being perpetually clamped around his bat.

And he wouldn’t stop.

The skin on Ramirez’ hands calloused to the point of making them almost useless for anything other than swinging his bat.

And still he wouldn’t stop.

He can no longer flatten his hands without a debilitating pain shooting through his knuckles.

And yet he keeps on swinging.

Like a car odometer on a family trip, the swing count spirals upwards.

Two hundred swings. Three hundred. Four hundred.

By his 500th swing, Ramirez is drowning in sweat and comfortable that he had wrung every last ounce of strength from his muscles.

And with that, he would leave the cage and return to the world of a teenager, where school and tests and girls and food and cars occupy his time.

Until the next morning, that is, when he would once again grab his bat, enter the cage, and hit 500 balls as hard as his hurting hands would allow.

This unyielding approach to perfection is what got J.P. Ramirez noticed in his home town of New Braunfels, Texas. He wanted to be not just the best, but the very best baseball player to ever don a Canyon High School jersey.

And to do it, he had to be better than the Yankees’ Lance Berkman, an alum of Canyon High.

It wouldn’t be difficult. All it would take, he thought, was 500 swings a day.

Every day.

The local paper named him the best first-year player in the conference.

And he kept on swinging.

He was named all-state (a big accomplishment in Texas) in his sophomore, junior, and senior years. He was a Louisville Slugger All-American his senior season and a Baseball America second-team All-American.

Canyon coach Pete Garza, who has seen them all come and go since 1968, said recently that Ramirez was simply “..the best I’ve ever coached. As far as work ethic goes, he’s definitely at the top.”

Better than even Lance Berkman.

One hundred swings. Two hundred.

The batting cage is in his backyard, and every morning his neighbors awake to the sound of 500 balls cutting through the humid air, reverberating on their roofs and their garages and their cars.

“For some reason the neighbors don’t mind the noise,” Mary Ramirez said. “They understand it’s J.P. I guess they figured they’d need to get used to it.”

Three hundred swings. Four hundred.

His father began to take J.P. to the batting cages at the age of four, hitting 75 mph pitches with ease. By seven, he could get around on a 95 mph fastball.

Five hundred swings.

After his amazing high school career, he accepted a scholarship to play baseball for powerhouse Tulane University. Clubs were so sure that he was going to college that no one dared draft him and risk losing their pick.

Except the Washington Nationals, that is, who took Ramirez with their selection in the 15th round in last year’s amateur draft.

Normally, 15th rounders get bus fare and a package of Twinkies for signing their contract.

Ramirez got $1.2 million.

Negotiations remained very quiet between the Nationals and Ramirez until it became apparent that the team would not be able to sign top pick Aaron Crow in the waning minutes of the signing period. A quick phone call was all it took. Ramirez was a National.

By way of comparison, Drew Storen, one of the Nationals’ first-round picks in 2009, signed for just $300,000 more than Ramirez, who was drafted 14 rounds later.

One hundred swings. Two hundred.

Ramirez arrived in Viera, Florida late in 2008 and played in the nine remaining games for the Nationals’ Gulf Coast League rookie team, hitting .407 with a homer and 12 RBI, leading the team to within a game of the GCL Championship.

Three hundred swings. Four hundred.

In 2009, the 5’10”, 185 pound Ramirez played for the Vermont Lake Monsters, a Class-A team in the New York-Penn League, where he faced 20-something college pitchers almost every night.

In 72 games, Ramirez batted .264-4-39 with six steals. Over a full major league season, that would translate into .264-8-78 and a dozen steals, not very good by his standards. He had to get better.

And so he returned home to New Braunfels after the season and took a day or two off. Then one morning, he stood up, walked out to his backyard batting cage, let the handle of his bat slip into his curled fingers, placed it on his shoulder, and took a deep breath.

And he started to swing.

One hundred swings. Two hundred. Three hundred.

Ramirez was promoted to Class-A Hagerstown this season and is currently hitting .283-13-56 (.283-21-84 over a full season). He has improved in almost all areas of his game, both offensively and defensively.

He’ll almost certainly start next season with High-A Potomac and will likely end the season with Double-A Harrisburg.

He has taken a big step towards the major leagues.

And yet, just a few days after the end of this season, when the pain begins to subside in his hands and the inflammation lessens, J.P. Ramirez will wake up early, drag himself out of bed and walk down the stone path towards his batting cage.

He’ll take a deep breath and focus on the pitching machine. And the balls will start flying his way.

One hundred swings. Two hundred…

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Adam Dunn is still a Washington National.

With a half-dozen or more teams making offers for the slugging first baseman right up to the last moments of the July 31 trade deadline, General Manager Mike Rizzo decided on Saturday afternoon that doing nothing made the most sense.

Dunn made it very clear that he didn’t want to leave Washington and believed that a multi-year deal with the Nationals could be reached any time this summer, this fall, even after the season is over.

He wants to stay. Really.

To Dunn, it all seems like a no-brainer. “Make me a fair offer and I’ll take it” is the underlying tone in all of his comments.

But does anyone remember Alfonso Soriano?

Soriano came to Washington in the winter of 2005 with one year remaining on his contract but said many times that he would like to remain a National.

But by mid-July, Soriano was hitting .280/.353/.573 with 30 home runs, 60 RBI and 23 stolen bases.

He was probably the most sought-after player at the trade deadline.

Every day, Soriano came to the ballpark and told anyone who would listen that he didn’t want to get traded, that he loved playing in Washington, and that while he never said it in so many words, suggested that the Nationals were up for a home-team discount.

That was, of course, assuming he wasn’t traded.

And he wasn’t. And for the rest of the season, Soriano was a very happy camper, right up to the moment he signed an eight-year, $136 million contract with the Chicago Cubs just days after the beginning of the free agent signing period. He never even gave the Nationals a courtesy call.

So much for a home team discount.

Yes, the Nationals got a couple of compensatory draft picks the next season, and yes, one of them turned out to be Jordan Zimmermann.

But in 2007, The Nationals were a franchise bereft of talent and it had no hope of contending. They could wait a few years for those picks to develop and mature.

Not so any more.

Heading into this off-season, the Washington Nationals have enough starting pitching depth to field two quality rotations and could craft a third from their minor league system.

The difference between the current roster and a contending one in 2011 could be just a player or two. Wilson Ramos, the top catching prospect in all of baseball, fills one hole at catcher. Keeping Dunn could fill the other.

Now that the trading deadline has passed and Dunn remains a National, the team has only one real hope to keep the team on the cusp of contention next season: Sign Adam Dunn before he can become an unfettered free agent able to sign with any team.

If Dunn doesn’t sign in the next three months, he is going to become a free agent. The team can’t stop him.

They will have a couple of choices, however.

They can offer him arbitration. If Dunn accepts, the Nationals will have him under contract for the 2011 season with his salary determined by a mutually-agreeable arbitrator.

Dunn would probably make $15 million or so.

If he declined arbitration, the Nationals would then get the two draft picks, one in the middle of the first round and the other just after it.

But if the Nationals don’t want to take the chance of having Dunn accept arbitration (and have to pay him that kind of money), they would not make the offer and thus lose the draft picks.

There is no way that would happen. Not signing a player who says he wants to sign is one thing. Not signing him and then getting nothing for him in return would be disastrous for the franchise.

Mike Rizzo wouldn’t allow that to happen.

The sticking-point between team and player doesn’t seem to be money. Based on salaries of other slugging first baseman, $15 million per season is not outlandish and the team could both afford it and justify it.

No, the problem is in the length of the contract.

Sources say that Dunn is seeking a four-year contract and the Nationals don’t want to commit themselves for that long. He will be 34 in 2014 and the team worries that his hulking body might start to break down by then.

Some believe the Nationals are offering a two-year contract, hoping that the two sides could meet in the middle at three years, $45 million.

Dunn was 29 when the Nationals signed him two a two-year, $20 million contract. He was willing to sign for three years but the Nationals declined (that sure seems like a bad decision right now, doesn’t it?).

If a 29-year-old who had hit 40 or more home runs for five consecutive years couldn’t get a four–year deal, it is doubtful that a 31-year-old would.

If Dunn really wants to stay with the Nationals, he should accept arbitration and take the $15 million or so for 2011.

If all goes well, the Nationals will be close to contending next season and signing their star player to a three-year deal would be more palatable than it is now.

One year of arbitration plus a three-year contract gets him to his four years and $60 million.

I never believed Alfonso Soriano when he said he wanted to remain with the Nationals. This is a guy who went to Japan to begin his professional career so he could then return to the major leagues as a younger free agent and reap the financial benefits.

And that whole “I’m not taking the field if I have to play left field” thing sure didn’t impress me, either.

But Adam Dunn is a decent, honest man. I believe what he says. He says he wants to stay in Washington because that’s what he wants to do.

But he doesn’t want to be taken advantage of, either.

Here is his chance to prove it. Work out an agreement before testing the free agent waters. But saying you want to stay, and actually staying, are two very different things.

Your decision and your integrity will be weighed and compared to Alfonso Soriano.

Show Nationals’ fans that our appreciation for you as a person, and a player, are well-founded.

Sign the darn contract.

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The Washington Nationals made a substantive trade Thursday and it had nothing at all to do with Adam Dunn.

Go figure.

The Nationals traded All-Star closer Matt Capps to the Minnesota Twins for minor league catcher Wilson Ramos.

The Nationals just got a whole lot better.

Capps, who saved his 25th game on Thursday, has a record of 3-3 with a fine ERA of just 2.80. The 26-year-old has already saved 92 major league games.

But as good as Capps is, he was expendable because bad teams don’t need All-Star closers and his heir apparent, former first-round pick Drew Storen, is pitching even better. Storen is 2-2 with a 2.73 ERA, allowing just 7.3 hits per nine-innings while striking out eight.

The Nationals also have several quality relievers currently in the minors to replace him, so the loss of Capps will make minimal difference—if any—for the rest of the season.

And in return they didn’t receive a run-of-the-mill prospect who is usually traded for a rental player.

Wilson Ramos, 22, signed in 2004 with the Twins as an amateur free agent. In five minor league seasons, Ramos has batted .284/.331/.427 with 36 home runs and 211 RBI (which averages out to about 16 homers and 75 RBI over a full minor league season).

Ramos was recalled from Triple-A Rochester earlier this season when Twins catcher Joe Mauer was injured. He batted a solid .296/321/.407 in 27 at-bats. In his first game, he went 4-5, the first Twin to garner four hits in his first game since Kirby Puckett in 1984 and is the only catcher in the modern era to do it.

He returned to the minors when Mauer rejoined the team.

He is a solid defensive catcher, throwing out 43% of would-be base stealers over his minor league career and has a .987 fielding percent over that span.

He has a perfect catcher’s build. He hits for a good average and has real home run power. His walk-to-strikeout rate isn’t wonderful, but he is just 22.

Ramos was added to the Twins 40-man roster in 2008 and Aaron Gleeman lists him as the Twins third best prospect. Baseball America has him at number four.

Says baseball insider Keith Law,” Ramos has had trouble staying healthy, but when he plays he hits, and he plays a premium position at which bats like his are hard to find.”

Ramos is considered one of the very best catching prospects in all of baseball and the only reason he wasn’t the Twins’ Opening Day catcher was due to some guy named Joe Mauer.

If Jesus Flores returns, the Nationals will have two good hitting catchers who are both solid defensively. If he doesn’t return, Ramos should become the Nationals starting catcher for years to come.

The Nationals also received minor league pitcher Joe Testa, who in three seasons as a reliever, has gone 10-7, 3.33.

This trade is indicative of a couple of things. First, General Manager Mike Rizzo demands a lot from a potential trade partner but holds firm and gets what he wants.

Secondly, if he can get this kind of return for Capps, imagine what an Adam Dunn trade will bring the Nationals.

I think a Dunn deal is now a matter of when, not if.

Lastly, catcher Derek Norris, one of the Nationals’ top prospects, is now expendable and might be packaged in a deal that would bring the Diamondbacks’ Edwin Jackson to Washington.

Wow.

The Washington Nationals just got a whole lot better. Thanks, Mike.

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As the trade deadline approaches, it is becoming apparent that Adam Dunn has a better chance to be traded by July 31^st then to remain a long-term part of the Washington Nationals.

Rumors abound that Dunn is perturbed at the Nationals’ perceived lack of urgency in getting a contract extension completed . 

Also, during the second inning of Saturday’s game with the Milwaukee Brewers went upstairs and had an on-air visit with Brewers’ radio man Bob Uecker.  

Nationals’ manager Jim Riggleman told reporters that he didn’t want to hear about it, and Dunn said on Monday that “I could care less if I get in trouble for going up and seeing my guy after he had heart surgery. I’ll pay my fine.”

It doesn’t sound like things are too copacetic between the team and the first baseman, at least for the moment.

Okay, so the chances of Dunn resigning with the Nationals seem unlikely, leaving the team with two options. They can either trade him between now and Saturday, or allow him to leave this winter as a free agent and get two additional draft pick in next summer’s amateur draft.

But really, the Nationals can’t afford to let their highest profile hitter walk away,  and get back a couple of players who may—or may not—turn into major league players in, oh, I don’t know, four or five years.

No, they need player(s) who can make an immediate contribution.

But is Edwin Jackson that player?

General Manager Mike Rizzo has made it clear for some time that he is a fan of the 27-year-old Jackson, and rumors have swirled on Monday that a three-way trade involving the Diamondbacks, White Sox and Nationals could bring Jackson to Washington in exchange for Dunn.

It is difficult to determine what a premier slugger is worth in exchange for two months of playing time. The Rangers gave up four minor leaguers to get Cliff Lee for two months, so you would think that Dunn would have similar value.

Teams however, are unwilling these days to trade away their best prospects for a rental hitter. If the rumors are to be believed, Dunn’s value is a couple of good—but not great—minor leaguers.

So is a Dunn for Jackson swap a good deal for the Nationals?

Jackson was a sixth-round pick of the Dodgers in 2001 and since 2006 has spent time with the Dodgers, Tampa Bay, Detroit and the Diamondbacks.

His first season as a full-time starter—with Tampa in 2007—was a disaster as Jackson went 5-15, 5.76. He blossomed the next season though, going 14-11, 4.42. He was at his best in 2009 with the Tigers, garnering a record of 13-9, 3.62.

His numbers with Arizona this season haven’t been as good (6-9, 5.01) but his internal numbers match his career marks (9.3/4.0/7.0) so his difficult year may be the product of playing with a bad team, or a run of bad luck, or both.

Jackson has a 95 mph fastball along with a good slider and change. His fastball, though, doesn’t have particularly good movement at times, leading to a higher-than-normal ERA for a pitcher of his caliber. He also walks too many batters.

But he’s just 27 and would be an excellent addition to the Nationals’ growing-by-the-day pitching staff.

Come 2011, the Nationals’ rotation could include Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Jackson, Cuban defector Yuneski Maya and Jason Marquis, with Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Ross Detwiler all fighting to gain a rotation spot as well.

Pretty good, I’d say.

Reports this afternoon suggest that a possible trade for Edwin Jackson would send prospects, and not Adam Dunn, to Arizona.

We’ll know in a few days, but regardless, starting pitching won’t be one of the Nationals’ problems next season.

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Two weeks ago, it seemed imperative that the Washington Nationals resign Adam Dunn and make him a long-term part of the team’s future.

However, the team continues to prove that while they are on the cusp on contention, they aren’t close enough to begin signing 30-year-old players to long-term deals.

To win at this level, a team must have quality pitching and solid defense to go along with timely hitting.

Right now, the Nationals have a strong bullpen, and is deep enough to support a contending team. Once the injured starters begin to return, their starting rotation could be as good as anyone in the division.

Let’s look at who the Nationals should have available come September 1st:

1. Stephen Strasburg

2. Jordan Zimmermann

A second-round pick in the 2007 draft, Zimmermann played parts of three seasons in the minors and put up Strasburg-like numbers, going 15-6, 2.68, 7.2/2.9/10.0 in 204 innings. He went 3-5, 4.63 with the Nationals in 2009 before Tommy John surgery ended his season.

While his overall numbers with Washington don’t look too impressive, he improved as the season progressed, and in his last nine starts went 1-3, 3.18 while allowing opponents a .243 batting average, .305 on-base percentage and .355 slugging mark.

He has been near perfect in his rehab starts this month, keeping his fastball around 94 mph while not walking a batter.

3. Yunesky Maya

Maya, a Cuban defector, was being chased by the Red Sox and Yankees this spring, but was signed by the Nationals yesterday.

At 28, Maya is a veteran of the World Baseball Classic and has won the Cuban equivalent of the Cy Young Award. In six seasons in Cuba, Maya went 48-29, 2.51.

Nationals’ general manager Mike Rizzo said he is “battle tested” and should be in the rotation “this year.”

4. Jason Marquis

Bone chips in his elbow landed Marquis on the disabled list earlier this year, but he has begun his rehab stint and should be ready to rejoin the team sometime in August.

Since 2004, Marquis has averaged 14 wins, .9.3/3.4/5.0. With the Rockies last season, he went 15-13, 4.04.

The Nationals could fill their fifth and final spot in the rotation with any of the following players:

John Lannan: The Opening Day starter the past two seasons, Lannan is in the minors right now trying to regain his form. But he is one of just a handful of major league starters with an ERA below 4.00 in both 2008 and 2009, so there is no reason to believe he won’t be back in Washington any day.

Chien-Ming Wang: His return from shoulder surgery has taken longer than anticipated, but he is expected to return sometime this season. Wang, 29, averaged 19-7, 3.74 in 2006-2007 and was 8-2, 4.04 in 2008 before the injury began to take its toll.

Scott Olsen: Olsen averaged 11 wins for the Marlins from 2006-2008 and is still just 26. He had surgery last season and began this year 2-2, 3.77 before soreness forced him to the disabled list. He too is rehabbing and will be back in the next few weeks.

Ross Detwiler: The former 2007 first-round draft pick went 15-17, 3.94 in the minors before getting called up in 2009. Though he pitched poorly in May and June, he returned in September from a July demotion and was brilliant, going 1-1, 1.90 while allowing opponents a .220 batting average, .319 on-base percent and a .268 slugging mark.

He required surgery this past spring but returned to the Nationals’ rotation on Sunday.

Also in the mix is J.D. Martin (1-5, 4.14), Craig Stammen (2-4, 5.50) and Luis Atilano (6-7, 5.15).

The Nationals have put together a pitching staff capable of contending.  Not right now with the rotation full of place-holders, but once the disabled list empties in favor of the rotation, all will be well.

The Nationals need defense and they need more hitting. They can do this by trading Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Livan Hernandez and Matt Capps for prospects, and then find a player or two in the upcoming free agent market.

The Nationals have taken care of the pitching. Now it’s time to fix the defense. If they do, the offense will follow and 2011 will be a special year.

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