Kuzul

There is less than a month to baseball’s trading deadline and the Washington Nationals will soon have to decide whether they are going to be buyers or sellers.

 

Six weeks ago, the Nationals were 20-15 and seemingly had finally shed their worst-team-in-baseball persona. Five games later however, they were just a .500 team and since that time have gone 15-30.

 

There have been signs of life this week, but has it been enough for general manager Mike Rizzo to keep the team together?

 

Let’s find out.

 

First, here are the members of the current 25-man roster who will be part of the team through next season and—hopefully—for seasons to come (with their age in parenthesis):

 

(24) SS—Ian Desmond: .252-4-33

 

(25) 3B—Ryan Zimmerman: .283-13-40       

 

(26) OF—Roger Bernadina: .283-5-23

 

(25) SP—John Lannan: 2-5, 576

 

(25) RP—Tyler Clippard: 8-5, 2.20

 

(27) RP—Sean Burnett: 0-4, 2.73

 

(21) SP—Stephen Strasburg: 2-2, 2.27

 

(22) RP—Drew Storen: 2-1, 1.74

 

Next are players who, though they have performed well enough, have yet to cement themselves into the team’s long-range plans:

 

(28) UT—Mike Morse: .315-3-6

 

(26) SP—Craig Stammen: 2-2, 5.13

 

(25) SP—Luis Atilano: 6-4, 4.31

 

(27) SP—J.D. Martin: 0-4, 3.38

 

(27) UT—Alberto Gonzalez: .286-0-3

 

These players have little chance of returning to the Nationals next season due to age, performance, or contract status:

 

(32) Willie Harris: .155-4-18

 

(32) Wil Nieves: .171-1-8

 

(39) Miguel Batista: 0-2, 3.95

 

(34) Tyler Walker: 1-0, 3.57

 

(30) Doug Slaten: 2-1, 3.14

 

And finally, here are the players who might be traded before the July 31 deadline:

 

(38) Pudge Rodriguez: .299-1-23

 

(30) Adam Dunn: .275-17-47

 

(32) Cristian Guzman: .297-1-21

 

(31) Josh Willingham: .274-14-44

 

(29) Nyjer Morgan: .254-0-13

 

(34) Adam Kennedy: .238-2-15

 

(35) Livan Hernandez: 6-4, 2.98

 

(26) Matt Capps: 1-3, 3.28, 22 saves

 

So as things stand now, roughly a third of the Nationals’ roster is part of the team’s future, another third is full of placeholders until better players come along, and a final third is full of stars and near-stars, but who might or might not be part of the team’s future.

 

So what to do? Let’s take a closer look at the trade candidates/

 

Though it would make sense for the Nationals to trade Pudge Rodriguez to a contender, they simply cannot. Jesus Flores, the catching heir apparent isn’t even close to returning from the disabled list and backup Wil Nieves gets worse the more he plays.

 

Early in the season, Rodriguez was one of the team’s best hitters, but has slumped badly.

 

When the Nationals crested at 20-15 in mid-May, Rodriguez was hitting .367/.390/.490 with 15 RBI. Since then, the team has a record of 15-30 and Pudge has struggled, hitting just .215/.247/.269 with just eight RBIs.

 

Catcher Derek Norris, perhaps the team’s best hitting prospect, is just now healthy after offseason surgery and is hitting .250-4-20 at Class-A Potomac. He is still two or three years away from the major leagues.

 

Though Pudge is now showing his age offensively, he is helping phenom Stephen Strasburg learn how to pitch in the major leagues.

 

Pudge stays.

 

Cristian Guzman is in the last year of his contract with the Nationals and is not in the team’s plans for next season. Ian Desmond has shown enough to be the Nationals’ shortstop in 2011. He’s hitting well and he is now competent in the field at both second and short. He could really help a contender.

 

Guzman goes.

 

From 2007-2009, Livan Hernandez has posted a record of 33-35, 5.45 and has been released by both the Minnesota Twins and New York Mets.

 

This season, however, Hernandez has parlayed a minor league contract into a 6-4 record and a 2.98 ERA. He is allowing just 8.6 hits and 2.7 walks per game. He has allowed four or more runs in just four of 16 starts this season.

 

Over the next couple of months, the Nationals will likely add former All-Star’s Chien-Ming Wang and Jason Marquis, and former No. 1 pitching prospect Jordan Zimmermann as well as former first-round pick Ross Detwiler, all from the disabled list.

 

And John Lannan, the team’s best pitcher the past two years, is regaining his polish at Double-A Harrisburg and will be back soon, certainly by the end of the month.

 

Livan Hernandez would make an excellent addition to a contender’s starting rotation, but GM Mike Rizzo needs to move him soon, before he remembers that he is a washed-up has-been.

 

Hernandez goes.

 

Matt Capps has been a major league closer for four seasons now, but is just 26 years old. He strikes out many batters and hardly walks any (though he does give up a lot of hits).

 

But he is on a one-year contract and there is no doubt—none—that Drew Storen is ready to take over as the Nationals’ closer. In 20.2 innings this season, Storen is allowing just 6.5 hits per nine-innings while striking out seven.

 

It’s not often that a closer of Capps’ caliber is available at the trading deadline, and the Nationals have several relief pitchers in the minor leagues who could take over for Storen in the setup role.  Syracuse’s Josh Wilkie (2-3, 1.82, 6.4/3.2/7.5) or Atahualpa Severino (3-0, 2.58, 8.2/3.1/5.9) seem ready.

 

Capps goes.

 

Adam Kennedy hasn’t done much in 2010, but that could be because of a lack of playing time. He has a strong career resume and could help several teams as a utility infielder. But it is doubtful the team would get much in return.

 

If Guzman goes, Kennedy stays and vice versa.

 

Last season, Nyjer Morgan seemed to be the answer in center field after several quick, toolsy players couldn’t get it done. And while he was wonderful last season, and is finally beginning to hit in 2010, he has repeatedly shown that he is lacking in general baseball skills, all too often getting picked off of first base, or getting caught stealing, and taking bad routes on fly balls in the outfield.

 

Had Roger Bernadina not blossomed this season, there would be no question that Morgan was a certain piece of the team’s future. But he is 29 and Bernadina seems to have a much better skill set.

 

Morgan won’t be shopped, but a quality offer won’t be turned down either.

 

Josh Willingham is having a great year to be sure. In his five seasons with the Marlins, Willingham averaged .266-24-72 over a 162-game season. But with the Nationals, he has increased his on-base percentage by 21 points and his slugging percentage by 26.

 

He is on pace to hit .274-28-88 with a .406 on-base percentage this year and his defense is much improved. Clearly, he has become a better player.

 

The questions surrounding Willingham are three-fold. First, he is 31 and has had problems staying healthy. He missed almost 100 games due to injury with Florida and played in just 133 games with Washington last year.

 

Can the Nationals count on his remaining in the lineup every day?

 

Second, at 31, he could begin his end-of-career slide in as few as two or three years. Remember, Senators’ great Frank Howard’s last good year came at age 33, and he never had any injury problems.

 

And lastly, Willingham is under team control through next year. In order to keep him, the Nationals are going to have to offer him a multi-year contract which would most certainly take him into his mid-thirties.

 

Is that wise?

 

His trade value will never be higher than it is now. Reports suggest that the Toronto Blue Jays received less for star pitcher Roy Halladay last winter then they were offered at the trading deadline the previous year.

 

If the Nationals are planning on moving Josh, now is the time.

 

Willingham goes.

 

The big question surrounds Adam Dunn. We all know what he can do. Wind him up and he’s going hit .260-35-100 while walking and striking out a great deal. But in 2010, he has made over his defense, going from a horrid outfielder to an adequate first baseman.

 

But unlike Willingham, the Nationals have him for just three more months. So one of two things are going to happen in the next month. Either the team is going to re-sign Dunn to a multi-year contract and make him a part of their future or they will trade him for prospects.

 

Sure, they could keep him and take the two draft picks in next year’s amateur draft if another team signs him, but that is very iffy. The Nationals drafted pitcher Josh Smoker and outfielder Michael Burgess in 2007 as compensation for the loss of Alfonso Soriano, Smoker is a bust and Michael Burgess is still having trouble making contact at Class-A ball.

 

But there is no market these days for rental players. The days of getting three prospects for three months service is long gone. Remember, then general manager Jim Bowden couldn’t find a taker for Soriano at the 2006 trade deadline.

 

Dunn wants to stay in Washington, is young enough to remain productive for years to come, and has had no injury problems in his career.

 

And he’s a modern-day Frank Howard.

 

He stays.

 

The 2011 Nationals will look something like this, not taking into account possible acquisitions via trade this winter:

 

1B: Adam Dunn

2B: Filled via trade

SS: Ian Desmond

3B: Ryan Zimmerman

LF: Nyjer Morgan

CF: Roger Bernadina

RF: Filled via trade

C: Jesus Flores & Pudge Rodriguez

 

Starting Pitching:

 

1—Stephen Strasburg

2—Jordan Zimmermann

3—Jason Marquis

4—Chien-Ming Wang

5—John Lannan.

 

Closer: Drew Storen

 

The possible trades this month of Adam Kennedy, Cristian Guzman, Josh Willingham, Livan Hernandez, and Matt Capps would certainly bring several prospects and possibly one or two major-league ready players to the Nationals.

 

Those pitchers bumped by the return of Marquis, Wang and Zimmermann—Luis Atilano, J.D. Martin, and Craig Stammen—could bring additional prospects as well.

 

Additionally, the team could again enter the free-agent market and find a plum or two.

 

The Nationals will have the pitching staff to contend in 2011. The question will be the offense. If Rizzo trades wisely and makes a splash in the free agent market, the Nationals should be a Wild Card contender in 2011.

 

Maybe, maybe, if.

 

Though the Nationals have come a long way, they still have a long way to go.

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So where are the Washington Nationals headed?

Just a couple of months ago, the team was five games over .500 and seemed both ready and able to remain competitive until Stephen Strasburg joined the squad and Jason Marquis, Chien-Ming Wang, Jordan Zimmermann, and Ross Detwiler regained their health.

The Nationals could then move some of their surplus starters into the bullpen and trade away the rest for players who could plug some of the holes on the 25-man roster.

It was thought that the team could then at least remain on the cusp of contention for the rest of the season.

Of course, that never happened. The team went from five games over .500 to 10 games under in just a few days.

Well, it seemed like that anyway.

Now obituaries for the 2010 Nationals are being written across the Internet as you read this.

So which is it? Is this a much improved team or just a carbon copy of the past two years of frustration?

I say forget the past month. But I also say that for the team to redeem itself—and quickly—a few changes need to be made.

The team can get back to .500 by the end of the season, but the front office can’t wait much longer before changing direction.

First, the Ian Desmond experiment needs to come to an end, but just for now. Though I still believe that he will be a top-notch major league shortstop, his poor play has to be eating at his confidence, and his 19 errors are sure hurting the team.

There is nothing wrong with Cristian Guzman finishing the year at short. He doesn’t get to many of the balls that Desmond does, but those he does get to usually turn into outs.

Though Adam Kennedy hasn’t played particularly well thus far (.238/.317/.319), his career 162-game average is .276-8-57. I think that if he plays every day, he’ll play well. 

Nyjer Morgan has to go too.

Look, I love the guy’s attitude and I love his energy and I love his love for the game. But I think we have a large enough sample now to be able to say that he just doesn’t have solid baseball skills. He gets picked off first too often. He takes bad routes to fly balls. He throws to the wrong bases.

And that was just last week.

Roger Bernadina deserves to start in center, and Michael Morse needs the opportunity to show if he is an everyday major leaguer.

Here is my starting lineup with their current statistics expanded to a full 162-game season: 

1B—Adam Dunn: .271-36-96

2B—Adam Kennedy: .238-6-45

SS—Cristian Guzman: .295-3-44

3B—Ryan Zimmerman: .285-29-89

LF—Josh Willingham: .276-30-92

CF—Roger Bernadina: .290-18-80

RF—Mike Morse: .340-30-60

C—Pudge Rodriguez: .301-2-46

Kennedy’s numbers look a little anemic, but given the opportunity to play every day, he’d probably end up hitting near .260 by season’s end, perhaps a little better.

Morse’s stats are skewed because he has just 50 at-bats, but his career 162-game average is .299-10-60 with a .360 on-base percentage and a .425 slugging mark.

Desmond would need to return to the minors to regain his confidence, but Morgan could remain as a backup outfielder, at least for the remainder of the season.

We know that the bullpen is strong, one of the strongest in baseball. It can be the rudder that leads the team back to respectability. No major changes here.

That leaves us with the starting rotation.

Stephen Strasburg is the ace and will wow the league until sometime in early September, when the Nationals will shut him down to save his arm. By that time, former No. 1 pitching prospect Jordan Zimmermann will be ready to take his spot in the rotation.

Zimmermann—who underwent Tommy John surgery almost a year ago—begins his rehab process next week. No, he’s not Stephen Strasburg, but he will be a solid No. 2 major league starter.

Sometime in the next month or two, Jason Marquis will be ready to return to the rotation. He is a former All-Star and will give the team a chance to win every time he starts.

Chien-Ming Wang, who has twice won 19 games in a season, can be a solid No. 3 during the season’s second half.

John Lannan’s struggles in 2010 are an anomaly. He is one of just a handful of major league starters who have finished the last two seasons with an ERA under 4.00 and is near the top of the quality starts list as well.

Lannan pitched very well in his first game with Double-A Harrisburg and should return to Washington sooner rather than later.

Lannan—this season’s Opening Day starter—now becomes the team’s No. 4 starter.

The team could then fill the final spot in the rotation with Livan Hernandez (6-4, 3.10), Luis Atilano (6-4, 4.33), Craig Stammen (2-2, 5.13), or J.D. Martin (0-3, 3.03).

The recent bad times for the Washington Nationals cannot be underplayed, to be sure. However, the problems are easy to pinpoint. The defense can’t be fixed overnight, but it can be patched with the changes at short, second, and center field.

The offense, one of the better groups in the league over the first third of the season, suddenly stopped hitting. That happens sometimes. But they seem to be coming out of their collective funk and might be back to their early season form.

But if the starting rotation can indeed be improved through the additions of the walking wounded—Zimmermann, Wang, Marquis, Detwiler, and Scott Olsen—this could be a team capable of having a sizzling second half.

Sure, there needs to be a little bit of luck involved, but it is not out of the realm of possibility to see the team play above .500 in the season’s second half.

To make it to 81 wins, the Nationals will have to go 47-37 over the next three months.

Is it possible?

If the injured starters return on time, and if they return at their pre-injury levels, and if general manager Mike Rizzo and manger Jim Riggleman are willing to take a chance and redo their up-the-middle defense, then yes. It is possible.

75 wins is more likely, but if they can find a tailwind come August, an 81-81 season is within their grasp. 

Here’s to hoping.

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On Monday, the Washington Nationals will draft Bryce Harper, a “once in a generation” hitting prospect with their first overall pick in the 2010 amateur draft. On Tuesday, Stephen Strasburg, last year’s top pick and a “once in a generation” pitching prospect, will take the mound in his first ever major league game.

To borrow a phrase from former Redskins’ head coach George Allen: “The future is now.”

I have little doubt that the Nationals will contend in 2011, especially if Chien-Ming Wang returns from injury and regains the form that saw him craft back-to-back 19-win seasons with the Yankees in 2006 and 2007.

But what about 2010? Clearly, the team as presently constituted won’t reach .500 this year, though they will come close. Once the injured players return, a 75-78 win season doesn’t seem unreasonable.

But, we all know that this team is about to get a lot better. Strasburg will join the rotation on Tuesday and when last we heard, Wang is on schedule to join the team sometime after the all-star break.

If general manager Mike Rizzo thinks the team can make a serious run towards the playoffs, he will end the Roger Bernadina experiment in right field and bring in a reliable right fielder in exchange for some prospects. If not, expect right field to continue to be a debilitating sore on the Nationals lineup for the remainder of the season.

Let’s take a look at the team and try to guess what might happen in the coming weeks, beginning with the starting rotation:

 

Craig Stammen: 1-2, 5.33, 11.0/2.4/4.5, .304/.344/.544, 11 starts

Last season, Stammen’s batting average-against the first two times through the lineup was just .258 before it jumped by 80 points the third time through, so it was thought he would make an ideal long-relief pitcher. This season, however, he’s getting hit hardest in the first two innings.

Stammen was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse after a beautifully pitched game against Cincinnati on Sunday.

It was the right choice.

Luis Atilano: 5-2, 4.24, 9.4/4.3/3.3, .269/.349/.444, 9 starts

Atilano’s ERA was high before Saturday’s game against the Reds, but an outstanding outing brought it down to an acceptable number. That high ERA was the result of three very bad starts (9.64 ERA) intermixed with his five very good ones (2.40 ERA). His 4.3 walks per nine-innings is high, but hits, batting average, on-base and slugging percents allowed are all very good.

And he’s on pace to win 15 games this season. Until he proves he doesn’t belong, he will remain with the Nationals.

John Lannan: 2-3, 4.79, 10.6/4.1/2.9, .294/.367/.440, 11 starts

Lannan’s numbers look bad, but he suffered through some pretty significant elbow pain early in the season. Not counting his first game back against the Rockies in Denver (which tends to skew statistics), Lannan has pitched brilliantly.

In his last three games, Lannan is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA, allowing opponent batters a .205 batting average, .261 on-base percent and a .292 slugging mark.

John Lannan is the model of consistency. He is only one of a handful of starting pitchers with an ERA below 4.00 in the last two seasons. No doubt, 2010 will make three in a row.

Scott Olsen: 2-2, 3.77, 9.4/2.9/6.7, .269/.324/.365, 8 starts

Oh, if Nationals’ starters could just stay healthy. Coming back from elbow surgery, Olsen started the year in the minors and got hammered in his first two starts back with the Nationals. In his last six starts, however, he’s been dominant: 1-0, 2.04, .248/.299/.293.

Olsen should return to the rotation in 10 days, and if healthy, will remain for the rest of the season.

J. D. Martin: 0-1, 2.31, 9.3/0.8/6.9, .250/.265/.542, 2 starts

Last season, Martin was solid as a rookie, going 4-4 with a 4.44 ERA. But like most rookies, he got pasted in his first two starts but from that point on—in his last nine starts last year and his first two this season—Martin has pitched beautifully.

In 77 innings, Martin is 4-3 with a 3.28 ERA, allowing 9.5 hits and 1.9 walks per nine-innings while striking out 5.6. Opponents are hitting just .261/.322/.456 against him.

There is nothing sexy about Martin. But he is a former first-round pick who gets major league batters out on a regular basis.

He deserves a spot in the rotation.

So thus far, here is my Nationals’ rotation for the second half of the season:

1. Stephen Strasburg
2. John Lannan
3. Scott Olsen
4. Luis Atilano
5. J.D. Martin

This, of course, doesn’t include Livan Hernandez (4-3, 2.22, 7.4/2.6/4.6, .222/.275/.363), without a doubt the team’s best starter thus far. That is because I don’t for a second believe that Livan will be with the team after the trading deadline on July 31st , perhaps even before.

No one expected Hernandez, 35, to pitch this well in 2010. He hasn’t finished a season with an ERA under 4.00 since 2005. Since then, he’s been traded, released, and released again.

At 35, Livan is not in the team’s long-term plans, and any day now could return to his form as one of the worst starters in the National League. No doubt Rizzo is gauging his value as trade bait to a contender, perhaps packaging Livan and a prospect or two for a bona fide major league right fielder.

Really, if the Nationals aren’t going to try to contend this season, Livan’s presence is a luxury, perhaps even a problem.

Because waiting in the wings are two former all-star pitchers, Jason Marquis and Chien-Ming Wang. Marquis is due to return to the Nationals in mid-July and Wang, who is not progressing as quickly as hoped, will probably be available two or three weeks later.

Stephen Strasburg, John Lannan and Scott Olsen are locks to remain in the rotation through the rest of the season (though Strasburg will be pulled when he reaches his first-year inning count, somewhere in early-to-mid September). But what if Luis Atilano or J.D. Martin struggles?

No problem. Just insert Wang or Marquis. In fact, they are going to be inserted regardless of how the staff is pitching.

By August, then, the rotation will include Strasburg, Lannan, Wang, Marquis and one of Atilano, Martin or Olsen.

Sometime after the all-star break, the Nationals will have no less than eight starting pitchers who have earned the right to be in the rotation. Some will slump, some will be injured, but among them will be five pitchers who are good enough to help the Nationals contend.

But if that is true, is the bullpen strong enough to support a contender?

Absolutely.

The Nationals will need seven solid arms in the bullpen. Take a look at the top seven relievers the Nationals currently have:

 

Miguel Batista: 0-2, 4.05, 6.5/5.6/4.8, .207/.336/.360

Other than his high number of walks, Batista’s stats—especially his batting average against—are lights out. He is the weakest link in the bullpen right now, which says a lot about the way this group is pitching.

Tyler Walker: 1-0, 4.13, 9.5/1.6/8.6, .278/.304/.472

Need someone to come in and strike a batter out, or to at least make sure you don’t walk him? Walker is allowing just 1.6 walks per nine-innings while striking out almost nine. He started off poorly but has pitched well recently.

Doug Slaten: 2-0, 1.93, 9.7/4.3/5.4, .290/.371/.323

Slaten is walking too many, and giving up too many hits, but his 1.93 ERA is sparkling.

Sean Burnett: 0-3, 3.50, 8.3/3.6/8.8, .235/.307/.353

Burnett started slowly but has redeemed himself recently and has now matched his numbers from last season, which was his career best.

Drew Storen: 1-0, 1.93, 5.6/5.6/5.6, .185/.333/.222

5.6 walks, hits and strikeouts per nine-innings? I think all of those numbers are skewed by a low inning total. But his averages-against tell the real story. He’s done an outstanding job.

Tyler Clippard: 8-3, 1.66,  5.0/4.3/10.1,  .172/.279/.276

Just look at those slash lines one more time. I don’t have a thing to add.

Matt Capps: 0-3, 3.71, 10.5/2.1/8.1, .286/.330/.429, 18 saves

Take away the errors in Houston and Capps would have 20 saves, on pace for 58 for the year. Sure, he’s got a little Chad Cordero in him, but unless his defense (or the umpires) doesn’t make a mistake, he’s going to get the save. He’s hanging some sliders right now, but he’ll correct the problem soon enough.

The Nationals’ offense, as we all know, is good enough to make it to the playoffs. Yes, there is a big hole in right field, but Rizzo certainly has enough spare parts to go out and get one if needed.

And the bullpen is about as good as it gets, and once the injured starting pitchers return, there is going to be a logjam like we’ve never seen before here in Washington.

The National League is made up of several very good teams and a bunch more average ones. Strasburg, a right fielder, and the return of the players currently on the disabled list would be enough to get the Nationals to 84-87 wins.

Will that be enough to get to the playoffs?

I don’t know. And unless the answer to that question becomes a cut-and-dried yes, I don’t see the Nationals trading any of their future for a preemptive pennant chase this summer.

Stay tuned, though. Whatever happens is going to happen soon.

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There is a great deal of consternation right now about the Washington Nationals and their offensive struggles.

 

Writers, commentators, bloggers and fans think the team’s offense is just not good enough to keep the team around .500—maybe a little better—until Stephen Strasburg finally arrives and saves the day.

 

But that is simply not the case.

 

Below is the Nationals’ most-used lineup for 2010. Take a look at the player’s offensive production when projected over the complete season.

 

CF—Nyjer Morgan:                 .242/.316/.339            24 2B—15 3B—0 HR—24 RBI

 

2B—Cristian Guzman:               .321/.347/.403            21 2B—9 3B—0 HR—48 RBI

 

3B—Ryan Zimmerman:          .299/.374/.571            38 2B—0 3B—32 HR—86 RBI

 

1B—Adam Dunn:                    .270/.379/.546            44 2B—6 3B—32 HR—80 RBI

 

LF—Josh Willingham:             .275/.429/.529            22 2B—3 3B—32 HR—107 RBI

 

SS—Ian Desmond:                   .263/.314/.410            22 2B—6 3B—14 HR—80 RBI

 

C—Ivan Rodriguez:                 .325/.351/.439            27 2B—3 3B—3 HR—51 RBI

 

RF—Roger Bernadina:              .241/.289/.410            14 2B—7 3B—6 HR—39 RBI

 

Nyjer Morgan has a career average of .291/.353/.381. There is no way he will finish the season this poorly. Expect him to have a sizzling summer and approach his career numbers by September.

 

Pudge Rodriguez is 38 and will no doubt end the season somewhere in the neighborhood of .260/.330/.440. Even though he will cool off, Rodriguez should still hit well enough to make him an offensive asset.

 

The only hole in the lineup is in right field where Justin Maxwell flunked terribly. Willie Harris hasn’t hit well since 2008. Roger Bernadina, after a remarkable five-game span, is returning to the real world.

 

Kevin Mench, who is Triple-A Syracuse’s every-day right fielder, is currently hitting .303/.373/.379 for the Chiefs with eight doubles, a home run, and 21 RBI.

 

Mench, 31, played seven seasons in the major leagues and has a 162-game career average of .269/.326/.460 with 21 homers and 76 RBI.

 

A right-handed batter, Mench hits lefties well. He, and perhaps Willie Harris, are the best options for the Nationals can right now unless they make a trade for a veteran right-fielder.

 

Six of the eight position players are providing the Nationals with satisfactory to above-average offense. A seventh (Morgan) will eventually hit to his potential, and sooner or later, the Nationals will fix the problem in right field.

 

From what I can tell, the Nationals struggle offensively because the team lacks timely hitting with runners in scoring position —and especially with two out.

 

I think the offense—with the exception of right-field—is certainly strong enough and the team’s middle-of-the-lineup sluggers (Zimmerman, Dunn, and Willingham) might be the best in the league right now.

 

A proven right fielder and the addition of Stephen Strasburg and Chien-Ming Wang to the starting rotation—and the reintroduction of Jason Marquis—make the Nationals a team that could contend for the National League wild card, at least from the periphery, until late into the season.

 

Let’s wait until John Lannan, Stephen Strasburg, Chien-Ming Wang, and Jason Marquis anchor the Nationals’ rotation before we worry about the team’s offense.

 

The Nationals would then find their fifth starter from a group that includes Livan Hernandez, Scott Olsen, Luis Atilano, Craig Stammen, and J.D. Martin and could use one or more of the remaining starters to nab a pretty good right fielder on the trade market.

 

This Nationals’ team will win 77-82 games in 2010, perhaps 85-88 if they find that veteran right fielder with a potent bat.

 

Man, this has been a fun season. Can you imagine how much more fun it will be once the final pieces of the puzzle finally fall into place?

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Everyone had forgotten about J.D. Martin until he took the mound for the Washington Nationals this past weekend. With Scott Olsen’s arm still sore, Martin was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to fill in against the San Diego Padres.

 

Though he took the loss, he pitched well, allowing just four hits and one earned run in six innings, striking out five while walking none.

 

Martin has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. In the past two seasons—both with the Chiefs—Martin has a fine record of 10-4 with a 2.77 ERA, allowing just 7.6 hits and 1.2 walks per nine-innings while striking out 6.2.

 

I still believe that Martin will one day become a permanent fixture in the Nationals’ rotation, a John Lannan clone.

 

And there is nothing wrong with having two John Lannan’s in the rotation.

 

An 11th-round afterthought in 2005, Lannan climbed the minor league ladder quickly, going a combined 12-3, 2.87 before finishing the season with the Nationals where the 22-year-old went 2-2, 4.15.

 

Since then, Lannan has won 20 games and been the team’s presumptive ace.

 

If the Nationals could find just one more pitcher to come out of nowhere, the team’s future would seem far more secure than in past seasons.

 

And Martin just seems to be the logical choice to do just that.

 

It’s not that Martin wasn’t a known commodity in the baseball world. The Cleveland Indians chose the high school pitcher in the first round of the 2001 amateur draft, using their compensation pick for the departed Manny Ramirez .

 

Martin had tremendous control and a good fastball with movement when he began his minor league career. In his first two seasons in the Indians organization, he went a combined 19-6, 3.17, allowing 2.5 walks per nine innings while striking out 11.

 

He was dominant.

 

However, his strikeouts all but disappeared in 2004 as he toughed through an 11-10, 4.39 season in the Class-A Carolina League. His strikeouts per nine innings dropped to six and his arm felt sore towards the end of the season.

 

There were signs of an arm injury, but it was hoped that an offseason of rest would help Martin regain both his strength and his fastball.

 

And it seemed to work. Martin was 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA and was again striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings through 10 games in the 2005 season . However, the sore arm returned and he was forced to undergo reconstructive “Tommy John” surgery that July.

 

He returned late in 2006, and over the next three years crafted a combined record of 15-8, 3.31, with 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

 

However, in 2008, his last year with the Indians, he was primarily a reliever; the team didn’t feel he was good enough—or strong enough—to be a starter any more.

 

Believing that he could still be an effective starter, Martin left the Indians as a six-year minor league free agent and looked for a major league franchise with pitching woes and therefore a quick path to the big leagues.

 

His first call was to the Washington Nationals.

 

He quickly became the team’s premier minor league pitcher, going 8-3, 2.66 in 15 starts with Triple-A Syracuse in 2009.

 

But he was not the same pitcher anymore. Martin began pitching to contact and threw strikes, lots of them. With Syracuse, he struck out six per nine innings while walking just one, an amazing walk to strikeout ratio at any level.

 

In nine minor league seasons, Martin had compiled an outstanding record of 56-28 with a 3.29 ERA and yet he’d never had the opportunity to pitch in a major league game.

 

That changed, however, when the Nationals Scott Olsen was lost for the season with an arm injury and the team desperately needed a fill-in arm.

 

Enter J.D. Martin.

 

In 15 starts with Washington in 2009, Martin went 5-4 with a 4.44 ERA.

 

He showed he had the ability, the tenacity, and the desire to succeed at the major league level. He didn’t do any one thing particularly well, yet by the time he walked off the mound, he more often than not had his team in a position to win.

 

But let’s look at his internal numbers and compare then with the aforementioned Lannan, the Nationals best starter over the past two seasons.

 

Hits per 9 innings:

Lannan: 9.2

Martin: 9.9

 

Homers allowed per 9 innings:

Lannan: 1.0

Martin: 1.6

 

Walks per 9 innings:

Lannan: 3.0

Martin: 2.8

 

Strikeouts per 9 innings:

Lannan: 3.9

Martin: 4.3

 

Baserunners per 9 innings:

Lannan: 1.35

Martin: 1.42

 

In virtually every category of statistical significance, the two were nearly identical. It would seem that the Nationals have indeed found their second out-of-the-blue starting pitcher.

 

But the news just gets better, just as Martin did as the season progressed.

 

In his first four starts, Martin gave up 13 runs, 24 hits, and five walks in just 16 innings. Since then, however, he might have been the best pitcher in the rotation. Take a look at Martins numbers compared to Lannan’s in their last 11 starts of 2009:

 

Innings Pitched:

Martin: 60

Lannan: 63

 

ERA:

Martin: 3.71

Lannan: 4.95

 

Hits per nine innings:

Martin: 10.1

Lannan: 10.2

 

Walks per nine innings:

Martin: 3.0

Lannan: 2.6

 

Strikeouts per nine innings:

Martin: 2.1

Lannan: 2.0

 

Batting average-against:

Martin: .264

Lannan: .263

 

On-base percentage allowed:

Martin: .330

Lannan: .332

 

Slugging percentage allowed:

Martin: .455

Lannan: .437

 

Percentage of pitches that were strikes:

Martin: 63%

Lannan: 63%

 

Line drives allowed:

Martin: 17%

Lannan: 25%

 

Team record in starts:

Martin: 8-3

Lannan: 4-7

 

Once Martin gained some experience at the major league level, he was able to match Lannan pitch-for-pitch over the last third of the season. So what’s the difference between team “ace” John Lannan and Martin?

 

About 55 career starts. In other words, experience.

 

He wasn’t given much of a chance in spring training, pitching far less innings than his competition (Craig Stammen pitched 19.2 innings, Martin just 10). It was obvious he was heading to Syracuse.

 

But just like last year, an injury to Scott Olsen gave Martin a chance in 2010, and he took advantage of it. Initial reports from the Nationals indicate that Martin will start at least one more game for the injured Olsen.

 

If he pitches well again, Martin might remain with the Nationals for a while longer.

 

Most of us have scoffed at former general manager Jim Bowden’s penchant for signing minor league pitchers off the scrap heap. It just never seemed to work.

 

This time, however, Bowden was right.

 

J. D. Martin might not be a sexy option for the team’s rotation, but he’s still young, gets major league batters out, and is at worst a solid back-of-the-rotation pitcher.

 

Here’s hoping, anyway.

 

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When former general manager Jim Bowden compared Ian Desmond to future Hall of Fame shortstop Derek Jeter, his team had yet to play a game as the Washington Nationals.  Fans had never heard of Desmond, a 19-year-old Floridian who was taken in the third-round of the 2004 amateur draft. 

Fans thought Bowden was out of his mind.

From 2005—the year of Bowden’s comparison—through 2008, Desmond played nothing like Derek Jeter. In fact, he played nothing like a prospect. He couldn’t field and he couldn’t hit. He was still playing for Class-A Potomac in 2007 and injuries took their toll. 

In five minor league seasons, he had a career .248 batting average. When 2009 began, Danny Espinosa—and not Desmond—was the club’s top shortstop prospect.

Then, all of a sudden, Desmond “got it.” 

Splitting time between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, Desmond batted .330/.401/.477 last season, hitting seven homers and driving in 32 runs.

In a September call-up, he batted .280-4-25 in just 152 at-bats (.280-15-92 over a full season).

Desmond beat out Cristian Guzman this spring and has played as well as anyone had hoped, perhaps even better.

So what about that comparison to Jeter? Was Bowden right five springs ago?

Let’s take a look.

In 2,371 minor league at-bats, Derek Jeter batted .308/.384/.418, hitting a home run every 111 at-bats. Desmond, in 1,777 games, hit .260/.326/.388 with a homer every 47 at-bats.

Clearly, Jeter was a much better minor league hitter though Desmond showed more extra-base power.

Defensively, their minor league statistics were almost identical.

Jeter played 451 minor league games and committed 133 errors, one every 3.33 games. Desmond played in 638 minor league games and made 189 errors, or one every 3.33 games.

Amazing.

Desmond did have a better range factor in the minors, though, 4.47 to Jeter’s 4.40.

Both players had a September call-up before taking over as their respective team’s everyday shortstop the next season.  Let’s compare their offensive production at the May 29th mark of that first season:

At-Bats:

Jeter: 156

Desmond: 152

Runs:

Jeter: 26

Desmond: 18

Hits:

Jeter: 42

Desmond: 41 

Doubles:

Jeter: 3

Desmond: 7

Triples:

Jeter: 3

Desmond: 2

Home Runs:

Jeter: 2

Desmond: 4

Runs Batted In:

Jeter: 21

Desmond: 25

Batting Average/On Base Pct./Slugging Pct.

Jeter: .269/.374/.365

Desmond: .270/.311/.421 

At this stage of the season, Jeter was able to draw more walks and hit for a higher on-base percentage but Desmond has shown more power, having more doubles, home runs, and RBI. 

There is no question that Desmond, at least offensively, is the equal of Jeter at this early stage in their careers.

Now let’s compare Jeter’s completed rookie-season statistics with Desmond’s current numbers projected out over a full season:

Runs:

Jeter: 104

Desmond: 66

Hits:

Jeter: 183

Desmond: 152 

Doubles:

Jeter: 25

Desmond: 26 

Triples:

Jeter: 6

Desmond: 8

Home Runs:

Jeter: 10

Desmond: 15 

Runs Batted In: 

Jeter: 78

Desmond: 92

Batting Average/ On-Base Pct. / Slugging Pct.

Jeter: .314/.370/.402

Desmond: .270/.311/.421

Jeter batted at or near the top of the Yankees lineup in 1996 while Desmond has hit mostly at the bottom of the Nationals lineup in 2010.

That would explain some of the difference between the players’ on-base percentages and batting averages (Desmond, batting seventh or eighth, sees far fewer quality pitches than Jeter did batting first or second).

That said, it is clear that Desmond will never have the high batting average and on-base percentage of Jeter, but he will hit for a little more power.

In his young career, Desmond is averaging 19 home runs and 87 RBI over a 162-game season while Jeter has averaged 17 homers and 81 RBI (but it took Jeter four seasons to begin to show the power that Desmond is showing right now).

Defense is where the comparisons between Jeter and Desmond get interesting.

Again, let’s compare Jeter’s first full season in the major leagues with what Desmond is projected to do this season:

Errors:

Jeter: 22

Desmond: 40 (ouch!)

Double Plays:

Jeter 83

Desmond: 111

Fielding Percentage:

Jeter: .969

Desmond: .950

RTOT (number of runs above or below average player at that position)

Jeter: -14

Desmond: 5

Range Factor (the player’s defensive range)

Jeter: 3.82

Desmond: 5.22

A couple of things stand out here. First, Desmond makes a lot of errors. Second, his far superior range allows him to finish more double plays and get to balls that Jeter can’t get to, saving his team far more runs that his errors allow. 

If you look just at errors and fielding percent, Jeter wins hands down in the players’ first-year comparison.

But if you look at all the factors, Desmond has the potential to be a very special defensive short stop. 

Can Ian Desmond cut down on that ugly error total? Yes, I think so. Jeter once committed 56 errors in the minor leagues, so if Jeter can get better, so can Desmond. 

So, was Jim Bowden right that spring day in Viera Florida when he said flat out that Desmond reminded him favorably of the Yankees’ all-star shortstop? 

Derek Jeter is a one-of-a-kind shortstop, so any comparison to him is patently unfair. That said, it is conceivable that Ian Desmond could have a career similar to—but not as good as—Jeter. 

If Desmond’s power increases like Jeter’s did, Desmond could become a stellar defensive shortstop that will hit .280-23-90 by 2015 or so.

Let’s forget Bowden’s comparison to Jeter and just say that Ian Desmond returned from the abyss of unfulfilled minor league talent and has helped transform a 100+ loss team into a franchise that is on the periphery of a wild-card pennant race.

And that’s good enough for me.

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It’s not too surprising that Astros’ ace Roy Oswalt asked to be traded to a contender this week. Houston has not only won just 15 games this year, they trail only the lowly Orioles for the worst record in baseball.

 

But shortly after Oswalt’s announcement, the Washington Nationals made it very clear that they were interested in the 32-year-old three-time all-star.

 

The Nationals? 

 

Is there any real chance that the Nationals would be willing to part with some of their prized prospects after going so long without any? And would Oswalt, who wants to play for a contender, be willing to wave his no-trade clause to come to a team that is coming off back-to-back 100 loss seasons?

 

Yes, and probably.

 

Team executives believe that the Nationals are close to contending right now. The team is a game above .500 even though all-star Jason Marquis has yet to win a game for them and Stephen Strasburg has yet to get a whiff of a major league locker room.

 

If the team is a .500 club right now, how much better would they be by adding Jason Marquis, Stephen Strasburg and—yes—Roy Oswalt?

 

Since Oswalt joined the team in 2001, the Astros have been a good, but not great team, averaging 84 wins per season over that period. Since 2006, the Astros have gotten older and less talented and have averaged just 77 wins in that time.

 

Even in their World Series season of 2005, the Astros won just 89 games.

 

The Astros are in a downhill spiral and Oswalt wants the opportunity to win now.

 

He said today that he wants to remain close to his Mississippi home, so Atlanta comes to mind. But they have an outstanding rotation and really don’t need him. The Mets need him, but they aren’t contenders this season and really, it is doubtful they have the financial flexibility to make a deal.

 

The Reds are 25-19 and are a peripheral contender, but after stealing Aroldis Chapman away from the Nationals this spring, I doubt they have the resources to cover his contract.

 

Oswalt is owed the balance of his $15 million contract this year and is due $16 million in 2011.

 

If Roy Oswalt is the difference between not contending next season and contending, I have to believe that the Lerner family, owners of the Nationals, would be willing to take on a contract of that size.

 

And yes, I think Oswalt would be willing to come to Washington. He knows about Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen. He sees that the team is improving and must understand that he could be the player that takes the Nationals on a real pennant chase, perhaps this summer but certainly in 2011.

 

I think he will waive his no-trade clause if the Nationals really make him feel wanted.

The big question, then, is what the Nationals would be willing to give up to get him.

 

The Astros have made it clear they want a major league ready pitcher to take Oswalt’s place as well as multiple prospects.

 

Assuming everyone is healthy, here is the pool from which the Nationals will draw their 2011 starters:

 

1.       Stephen Strasburg

2.       John Lannan

3.       Jason Marquis

4.       Scott Olsen

5.       Jordan Zimmermann

6.       Livan Hernandez

7.       Chien-Ming Wang

8.       Ross Detwiler

9.       Craig Stammen

10.      Luis Atilano

11.      Matt Chico

12.      J.D. Martin

 

Strasburg, Marquis and Lannan will be the cornerstones of next year’s rotation. If Livan Hernandez continues to pitch well throughout this season—if he keeps his ERA under 3.50 in other words—I think he too could return in 2011. That is unless Chien-Ming Wang makes a full recovery from his surgery and dazzles in the second half of 2010.

 

And of course, Jordan Zimmermann will have a spot in the rotation as soon as he is healthy.

 

It would seem then that the 2011 rotation is already filled.

 

Strasburg is untouchable, and Marquis and Livan are just too old to be considered for the Astros’ youth movement that will start any day now. And while John Lannan has had success at the major league level, he will likely never be any more than he is now, a number-four starter with an ERA around 4.00.

 

That leaves Zimmermann, who is both young enough, and talented enough, to be the cornerstone of any potential trade for Oswalt. And Tommy John surgery is no longer a hit-or-miss procedure; pitchers who have the surgery almost always return to form. The only thing lost is time.

 

Without Roy Oswalt, the best-case scenario for next year’s rotation would look like this:

 

1.       Stephen Strasburg

2.       Jason Marquis

3.       Jordan Zimmermann

4.       Chien-Ming Wang

5.       John Lannan

 

That’s certainly a good rotation, but it could be better.

 

It could include Roy Oswalt.

 

I believe that the Astros would accept Jordan Zimmermann as the cornerstone of a prospects-for-star deal. But he wouldn’t be nearly enough.

 

Putting on my general manager hat for a moment, these are the players I would offer to Houston for Oswalt (them accepting is another matter altogether):

 

Jordan Zimmermann: He won’t become another Roy Oswalt, but he’ll be close. Once he matures, Zimmermann could be counted on to provide the Astros with very good-but-not-great numbers: 13-10, 3.60, 9.1/2.8/8.9.

 

Zimmermann is expendable for a couple of reasons. First, Stephen Strasburg is ready to take the spot originally reserved for him in the Nationals’ rotation right now. Secondly, last season’s amateur draft netted the team two very young but very good starting pitchers.

 

Trevor Holder was taken in the third-round last year and is following up a good 2009 season with an outstanding 2010 campaign. In eight starts, Holder is 3-1, 3.88, 9.3/0.8/6.5 for Class-A Hagerstown.

 

The surprise of the draft has to be Daniel Rosenbaum, a 22^nd -round selection out of Xavier. In nine starts for the Suns, Rosenbaum has blown away his Sally League competition, going 1-1, 1.53, 7.1/1.5/8.0.

 

With Strasburg in front of him, and Holder and Rosenbaum behind him, the Nationals find themselves in the amazing position of not needing this future number-one starter.

 

Scott Olsen : At 26, Olsen is still relatively young. He has proven major league experience, and has pitched very well this season (2-2, 3.77, 9.4/2.9/6.7). A healthy Olsen could win 10-12 games a season for the Astros with a ERA in the 4.00-4.25 range.

 

Yes, his health is a question mark, but his latest stint on the disabled list is a minor problem.

 

Justin Maxwell: In every large trade, there is always a player like Justin Maxwell, someone with seemingly endless potential but who as of yet been unable to turn the potential into stardom. Perhaps the band-box dimensions of Houston’s home park might help jump-start Maxwell’s offense.

 

Chris Marrero : If the Nationals as expected sign Adam Dunn to an extension this summer, Marrero becomes a man without a position. The Astros will be in need of a replacement for Lance Berkman pretty soon. While Marrero has not lived up to his first-round billing, he could still become a decent major league hitter. .275-20-80 is not out of his reach.

 

Michael Burgess : Burgess is a high strikeout, low average hitter with a ton of power. Maybe he’ll make it to the major leagues, but maybe he won’t. He is expendable, especially now that Destin Hood is in the organization. Hood has shown the ability to hit for power, but will be a much better contact hitter than Burgess.

 

I have a feeling that Houston might also want Ross Detwiler, but I don’t know if the Nationals would give up both he and Zimmermann. But that’s one of the benefits of having so many quality starting pitching prospects in the system. The team could overpay for someone like Oswalt and not be hurt too badly in the long term.

 

Right now, the Nationals are one or two great players away from real contention. Their 23-22 record is good enough for a third place tie in both their division and the wild card hunt. To win the wild card—the most likely option—their most difficult competition would come from Atlanta, Cincinnati, San Diego and Los Angeles.

 

The Nationals as currently constituted couldn’t beat out any of those teams. But the addition of Roy Oswalt could make the Nationals the second or third best team in the wild card chase.

 

And from that position, anything could happen.

 

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Since the first day they arrived in town, the Washington Nationals promised that restocking the team’s depleted farm system would be their top priority.

And since that first draft in 2005, the team has been stocking their farm system with talented young pitchers. Then general manager Jim Bowden said that was the way to do it. “You draft as many pitchers as you can find,” Bowden said, “and then trade the excess for position players. Pitching prospects are always worth more.”

And for the most part, it has worked. Two members of the Nationals’ current starting rotation—John Lannan and Craig Stammen—arrived in that very first amateur draft six seasons ago.

But we have stopped watching for the quantity and are now transfixed on the quality, specifically last year’s first round picks Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen. Because of them, Nationals’ fans have stopped looking for the next John Lannan or Craig Stammen, players who were never heard of until they first donned Washington’s “Curly W” cap.

But they are there. And though it’s important that “can’t miss” prospects succeed, it is far more fun when the late-rounder’s come out of nowhere and help solidify the team. Late-rounder’s like Daniel Rosenbaum .

Rosenbaum was drafted in the 22nd round of last year’s amateur draft, an afterthought pick if ever there was one. He had a good-enough career at Xavier University, but certainly he was nothing special. If he wasn’t a left-hander , I doubt he would have even been drafted.

As a 21-year-old, Rosenbaum dominated the Gulf Coast League last season. He started 11 games, crafting a fine record of 4-1, 1.95, allowing just 7.1 hits and 2.2 walks per nine-innings while striking out 9.2.

That said, Rosenbaum was pitching against 18-year-olds. The Nationals would need to wait until this season when, playing for Class-A Hagerstown, he would compete against players of similar age and experience.

Turns out he’s pitching even better.

In 47 innings, Rosenbaum is 1-1, 1.52, allowing 7.1 hits and 1.3 walks per nine-innings while striking out nearly eight per game.

He’ll likely be promoted to Class-A Potomac by the all-star break.

So while it’s fun to watch players like Strasburg and Storen inch their way towards the major leagues, it is players like Daniel Rosenbaum , players who came out of nowhere, who can make a good team great.

Here’s hoping that Daniel Rosenbaum joins John Lannan on that list of players who came out of nowhere to make a difference for the Washington Nationals.

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The Washington Nationals are on pace to win 81 games this season, far better than anyone imagined when the team broke camp in Florida just two months ago.

Most of the preseason predictions put the Nationals in the 70-73 win range. The majority of fans would have happily taken that win total in 2010.

But the Nationals—who were five games over .500 just a week ago—have now lost six out of their last seven games. Many are blaming their current woes on an overworked bullpen and a sub-par offense.

No question, Tyler Clippard (7-2, 2.22) and closer Matt Capps (0-1, 2.11, 15/15) had a rough week. But, both seem rested, and both pitched well in the just-completed series against the Mets.

But, what about the offense?

Are the questions currently surrounding the Nationals’ offensive production warranted?

Here’s how the Nationals’ offensive statistics should look at the end of the season if they maintain their current production levels. The average for that position within the division is listed in parenthesis, and does not include Nationals players.

 

First Base—Adam Dunn

.261-36 HR-76 RBI (Division average: .281-21-77)

Dunn is producing, as expected. His overall numbers are as good as—and in some cases better than—his division rivals. His on-base percentage (.386) and slugging percent (.558) are career bests.

 

Second Base—Cristian Guzman and Adam Kennedy

.297-8-92 (Division average: .294-25-75)

Other than home runs, Guzman and Kennedy’s offensive production matches the rest of the division. That says something, considering the National League East is home to Martin Prado, Chase Utley, and Dan Uggla.

 

Shortstop—Ian Desmond

.277-12-76 (Division average: .265-8-40)

The 24-year-old rookie is doing an excellent job with the bat, especially considering he’s batted eighth in the order most of the season, and hasn’t seen many good pitches to hit.

He’s outhitting New York’s Jose Reyes and Atlanta’s Yunel Escobar, and is second among division shortstops with 19 RBI.

 

Third Base—Ryan Zimmerman

.311-32-100 (Division average: .267-20-90)

Zimmerman won the Silver Slugger last year, and is on pace to do it again this season. His batting average, home runs, and RBI totals are all higher than the division average.

 

Catcher—Ivan Rodriguez

.333-4-60 (Division average: .286-18-55)

Though there is little chance that Pudge will finish the season with these type of numbers, he has given the Nationals a quality bat in the lower half of their lineup, which they didn’t have last year.

 

Left Field—Josh Willingham

.262-24-92 (Division average: .278-8-62)

Willingham’s production is by far the best within the division for a left fielder. You can’t ask much more from a No. 5 hitter. He has a team-best .413 on-base percentage, and a .468 slugging mark.

 

Center Field—Nyjer Morgan

.255-0-32 (Division average: .245-15-66)

Though Morgan’s batting average is 40 points lower than his career average, his .341 on-base percent is certainly good enough until his bat heats up.

 

Right Field—Roger Bernadina

.281-8-52 (Division average: .276-22-102)

Right field is the strength of the National League East, and Bernadina’s numbers pale in comparison.

However, he won the job just 10 days ago, so his projected production is somewhat skewed.

If you project his current numbers over a 162-game season, Bernadina would hit .281-20-80 with a .333 on-base percentage, and 20 steals.

The Nationals have four players (Dunn, Desmond, Zimmerman, and Willingham) whose offensive production is better than the division average, two (Guzman/Kennedy and Rodriguez) who are producing at the division average, and two (Morgan and Bernadina) whose production are worse than the division average.

This is a bad offense?

Here is how the Nationals currently rank in the National League:

Batting average: seventh

On-base percentage: eighth

Slugging average: sixth

Runs: eleventh

Hits: seventh

Doubles: sixth

Triples: first

Home runs: ninth

Stolen bases: third

So, what does all this mean?

The Washington Nationals have a good-enough offense, though not a great one.

The problem is that too many of the players are streak hitters, which means it can be feast-or-famine for weeks at a time in Washington.

Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman, and Josh Willingham can all carry the team for a month. But, when they turn cold, 6-4 wins turn into 4-2 losses.

This offense is capable of leading the Washington Nationals into the playoffs when manager Jim Riggleman can pick his starting rotation from a group that includes John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Stephen Strasburg, Scott Olsen, Livan Hernandez, Scott Olsen, and Jordan Zimmermann.

Until then, however, the Nationals are one big-bat away from contention.

To get it, they will have to look outside the organization. Washington would have to trade some of the team’s excess starting pitching—and perhaps one of their prized prospects—to get the help.

I think that cost is too high.

If Strasburg is in the rotation by mid-June, and Wang and Marquis are healthy and pitching by the All-Star game, the Nationals could win 85 games this season. Making a trade for one more big-bat could net the team 90 wins.

Predictions are fun. But, with this team, they can be precarious.

Will Stephen Strasburg come close to repeating his minor league dominance in the National League?

Can former All-Star Jason Marquis and two-time 19-game-winner Chien Ming Wang return from injuries, and pitch to their potential in the season’s second half?

If they don’t, it’ll still be a nice season for Washington. But, boy, if they do …..

 

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