Kuzul

The fact that manager Bobby Valentine and Red Sox brass have been so non-committal about announcing a starting rotation leads one to believe there might be one last deal in the works.

Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston.com speculated on that possibility yesterday, quoting Valentine as saying, “There might be some situations I need to wait on before I make any declarations.’’ 

Don’t misunderstand me—there has been absolutely no indication from the team about making a move, and no rumors are floating around about a trade.

But what other “situations” could Valentine possibly be waiting on? 

Like Sherlock Holmes and the dog that did not bark, I am looking at what is not there.

1. Everyone within the Red Sox organization has been bending over backwards to say how happy they are with the pitchers they have—but no starters have been named beyond the top three (Lester, Beckett, Buchholz).

2. Even if we assume Felix Doubront gets a shot, that leaves the Bard/Aceves question, and I would not be surprised if GM Ben Cherington has second thoughts about moving either or both to the rotation.

3. Bard and Aceves have not exactly lit up the camp in their starter outings, and neither have most of their potential bullpen replacements. If both Bard and Aceves went back to relief work, the Red Sox would have one of the strongest bullpens in baseball.

4. In-house rotation candidate Aaron Cook has been brought along very slowly, as planned, and while I have every expectation that he will contribute at some point, it won’t be early in the season. The same goes for Ross Ohlendorf, who will try to gradually work his way back from a shoulder injury. Both will be stretched out at Triple-A Pawtucket.

5. To me, the largest piece of circumstantial evidence suggesting the Red Sox are not done yet is the salary-dumping trade of Marco Scutaro. If they don’t use the money they freed up to sign a starter, why did they do that deal in the first place? Every indication is that Boston pushed hard to get Roy Oswalt to sign, without success. Does that mean they stop there?

One other factor that I’m sure looms large in ownership minds is what happened last year. I don’t mean just the September collapse—I mean the events leading up to it.

Coming out of spring training in 2011, the Red Sox had one of the more powerful pitching staffs in baseball, and we all know how that worked out. Where will Boston be if the Buchholz or Beckett back problems recur, and neither Cook nor Ohlendorf is ready to step in?

When Edes pressed Valentine on the possibility of something being in the works, the manager did not deny it, saying, “Every roster continues to evolve. You have to allow it to evolve, either by bringing guys up or looking outside, which Ben and his people do religiously every day. I’m not begging for it, or asking for it.’’ 

In addition to Oswalt, some of the starters mentioned all winter as being potentially available via trade are still available, such as Wandy Rodriguez, John Danks and Gavin Floyd.

With Opening Day for most teams just around the corner, there may another candidate or two that we just haven’t thought of yet.

For my money, however, the Washington Nationals are still the best potential trade partner, as I wrote in February.

Even before the Nationals signed Edwin Jackson, I argued that Washington was an intriguing potential trade partner for the Red Sox, because they had too many major league starters. 

Pete Kerzel of MASN wrote, “There’s no way around it: The Nationals have at least one more starting pitcher than spots in the vastly improved five-man rotation that will break camp from spring training in Viera, Fla., in early April.”

And Kerzel made that statement before Jackson was added to the mix. 

Although the Nats now appear to be hanging on to John Lannan to start the season while Chien-Ming Wang recovers from a hamstring injury, they still have a glut of starters working in the bullpen, to include Ross Detwiler, Craig Stammen and Tom Gorzelanney. At least one of them has to go—either to the minors or to another team in a trade.

Detwiler, Washington’s first-round pick (sixth overall) in the ’07 draft, is a 6’5” lefty with a mid-90s fastball. He also has great stuff, but he has yet to live up to his potential due to injuries and inconsistency.

The problem for the Nationals is that Detwiler is out of options, so he has to be on the 25-man roster or go elsewhere in a trade. Detwiler could be an intriguing option for the Red Sox to pursue.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

I don’t really envy Jenny Dell, coming in to Red Sox Nation after Heidi Watney.

She has big…er, shoes…to fill.

On Jan. 28, I expressed my surprise that Jenny, a relative unknown from the hinterlands of ESPN’s fringe sports coverage, would be Heidi’s replacement. (At the time of her hiring, she was in Aspen, working on the upcoming Winter X Games.)

I had spent my Christmas vacation laboring over pictures and bios of potential replacements for the lovely and talented Ms. Watney. (Yeah, I know—tough job, but somebody had to do it.)

The result was my presentation of 27 hottie candidates from all over the country, which you can view here.

Much to my chagrin, I did not include Jenny Dell as one of the 27. In fact, despite my exhaustive and distracting research, I had never even heard of Dell until her name was rumored as one of the finalists.

The new Red Sox sideline reporter was officially introduced and welcomed to Red Sox Nation by Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy during NESN’s coverage of the Boston-Philadelphia spring training game last Saturday.

Although I don’t think she’s off to the best start, here are seven factors to consider before Red Sox Nation runs her out of town like Keith Foulke.

Begin Slideshow

The term “worst signings” leaves a lot of wiggle room for interpretation, I know. Does it mean player x was a bad signing because he’s not a good player, or is he a good player that a team paid too much for? Or was he a player with a good track record on a particular team or in a particular ballpark that may not translate as well to his new location?

To start with, I don’t see too many of the 2012 season signings with the potential to rank up there with the worst signing of all time, which I (along with many others) suggest was Alex Rodriguez‘s 10-year, $275-million contract, signed when he was heading into his age 32 season.

Four years into the deal, he has struggled to stay healthy, averaging just 124 games per season while hitting .284/.375/.521.

“It’s an impressive slash line,” writes Benjamin Kabak of RiverAvenueBlues, “But that is a far cry from the .306/.389/.578 line he put up beforehand.”

Add in a steroid scandal, and while A-Rod gets paid no matter what, the bloom came off that rose a long time ago. He is under contract for six more years and will earn another $143 million from the Yanks.

Rob Neyer, Baseball editor for SBNation.com, lists three criteria for a great contract blunder: “Premeditation. Contemporary questionability. Ill effects.”

Premeditation is a given; teams voluntarily (if not eagerly) enter into these contracts. Questionability is the application of the “reasonable man” theory: Could a reasonable soul, using the readily available tools, have made a case against doing this deal? Ill effects: Does the end result have a negative impact.

In the 15 slides to follow, I cover all those bases, and I’m sure my takes (presented in inverse order of offensiveness) will create some controversy. So have at it in the comments section!

Begin Slideshow

As spring training starts baseball juices flowing, it’s time for a look at the latest members of the “Benedict Arnold Club”, as Matthew Kory of Over the Monster calls it.

If you’re a New York fanatic, there’s always a twinge when you see a former favorite wearing the Red Sox uniform: think Alfredo Aceves. Similarly, members of Red Sox Nation cringe at the thought of seeing someone like 2004 World Series hero Johnny Damon don the pinstripes.  

Making it worse for Red Sox fans is that the player movement along the Boston-New York corridor has been heavily in the Yankees favor over the years, starting with a guy named Babe Ruth.  

Of the defectors in the last 20 years, I would guess Roger Clemens and Wade Boggs sting the most from the Red Sox side. Everyone over 30 will probably remember when Boggs joined the Yankees in 1993. That was bad enough, but seeing him on that horse after winning the World Series just rubbed salt in the wound.

Reliever Mike Stanton is another Red Sox player who found success in the Bronx. At the 1996 trading deadline the Red Sox sent him to Texas for two forgettable players. The Yankees picked him up the following year, and over the next seasons he went 30-12 out of the NY bullpen, earning an All-Star nod in 2001.

From the Yankees side, there have been fewer defections that have come back to haunt them in the past few decades—Aceves and Mike Lowell being the most recent exceptions.

A couple of others that come to mind are David Cone and Don Baylor, thought by many to be the catalyst for the pennant-winning 1986 Red Sox team.

Some players performed reasonably well for both teams: David Wells, Mike Torrez, Ramiro Mendoza and Eric Hinske come to mind.

(In fact, those last two names are the answer to a pretty good trivia question: Who are the only two ballplayers since 1918 to have won a World Series ring with both the Red Sox and the Yankees?)

Others have played for the dark side at the end of their careers: Luis Tiant, Bill Monbouquette and George “Boomer” Scott had twilight stints with the Yankees, while I imagine Yankee fans found it difficult to watch the great Elston Howard play for the Red Sox.

In recent years free agency has created most of this movement, when the Yankees were quite simply willing to pay more than the Red Sox for certain players.

Even before free agency, however, the Yankees always seemed to get the better of the also-ran Red Sox. Many people forget that Babe Ruth was not the only player sold to the Yankees because of Harry Frazee’s money woes in the World War I era. 

Duffy Lewis, Everett Scott, Ernie Shore, Herb Pennock and Carl Mays all contributed to the Red Sox winning five of the seven World Series played between 1912 and 1918. Kory points out they were all sold to the Yankees between 1919 and 1923, leading to the total dismantling of a Red Sox powerhouse that would not even become a .500 team again until 1935. (Of course, the Sox also sold the legendary Tris Speaker to Cleveland.)

Back in the day, Yankee star pitchers Red Ruffing and Waite Hoyt both came from Boston.

In 1967 the Yankees embarrassed the Red Sox by getting All-Star and Cy Young reliever Sparky Lyle in exchange for the immortal Danny Cater. 

A surprisingly high number of the 2004 curse-busting Red Sox team also played for the Yankees sometime during their careers. In addition to Damon and Mendoza, Mike Myers, Doug Meintkeiwicz, Mark Bellhorn, and Alan Embree all donned pinstripes at some point.

A few other club members whose names are familiar to most baseball fans are: Kevin Cash, Rick Cerone, Nick Green, Rickey Henderson, Jim Leyritz, Mike Stanley and Tom Gordon.

In all, according to BaseballReference.com, there are some 210 players over the years who have played for both teams.

Last year, the only former Red Sox player on the Yankees major league roster was Bartolo Colon, while Aceves was the only former Yankee on the Red Sox roster. Chances are those numbers will be higher this year.

Begin Slideshow

Even before the Nationals signed Edwin Jackson, I argued that Washington was an intriguing potential trade partner for the Red Sox, because they had too many major league starters. 

Pete Kerzel of MASN wrote, “There’s no way around it: The Nationals have at least one more starting pitcher than spots in the vastly improved five-man rotation that will break camp from spring training in Viera, Fla., in early April.”

And Kerzel made that statement before Jackson was added to the mix. At the time, their starters included Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Chien-Ming Wang, Ross Detwiler, John Lannan, Tom Gorzelanny and Craig Stammen, with Yunesky Maya, Matt Purke and others waiting in the wings.

Push Jackson into the mix—likely as the number two starter—and another pitcher has to drop off the end of the rotation.

Which pitcher is most likely to go, and what would Washington want in return?

On February 8 Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post wrote that the Jackson deal “seemed to blanket John Lannan’s future here in uncertainty.” He reinforced Kerzel’s point that the Nationals have seven or eight viable starters competing for five spots. “Based on contract and service time considerations,” Kilgore concluded, “Lannan became widely regarded as the Nationals’ most expendable (read: tradeable) starter.”

Don’t be surprised, however, if a deal gets done late—just before the start of the season. They want to get a good look at all their pitchers before making a decision. Washington does need some insurance, with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Chien-Ming Wang all coming off recent surgeries.

Strasburg is on a 160-inning limit and will be shut down once he reaches that mark. Wang hasn’t pitched 100 innings since 2007, and it is unknown how many innings Jordan Zimmermann (who was limited to 160 in 2011) will be able to throw in 2012.

Everything I’m writing here is predicated on the initial presumption that the Nationals have too many starting pitchers. But isn’t that what folks said about the Red Sox last year? Look what happened.

Washington also wants to get a look at center field—their area of greatest need. So much need, in fact, that they signed former Red Sox bust Mike Cameron as a non-roster invitee, and re-signed former pitcher Rick Ankiel to compete with the immortal Roger Bernadina for the spot until rookie phenom Bryce Harper is deemed ready for the majors.

Washington also looks to add bench strength, especially a left-handed bat.

The Nationals are now supposedly shopping Lannan aggressively, and have apparently spoken with the Angels about Peter Bourjos—but the Angels would need a lot more than one of those extra pitchers for that great outfield prospect. On FanGraphs, Dave Cameron wrote, “But, even if we assume that the Angels should entertain offers for Bourjos, the idea of swapping him for John Lannan is still absolutely insane.”

Orioles reporter Amber Theoharis suggested John Lannan and Ross Detwiler for Adam Jones, while her colleague Roch Kubatko suggested second base prospect Steven Lombardozzi along with Lannan and a pitching prospect for Jones.

Neither of those deals is likely to happen.

On the surface it does not appear that the Red Sox are an ideal match because their expendable outfielder who might appeal to Washington—Ryan Kalish—won’t be ready for the start of the season.

According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, however, there is reason to believe that a trade could still happen. “It doesn’t have to be a center fielder,’’ one major league source told Cafardo. “They don’t have to get a center fielder in that deal as long as they get a center fielder some other way. The Red Sox make a lot of sense.’’

Or, perhaps the Nats would take Kalish and muddle along with Ankiel/Cameron/Bernadina until Kalish is healthy enough to play. If Washington adds a low-level pitching prospect, the Red Sox could throw in Lars Anderson, a left-handed hitter with potential, to sweeten the deal.

Washington may also wish to address another glaring need: on base percentage. As the February 13 issue of Sports Illustrated points out, Washington was 12th in the NL last year in runs and OBP, and they didn’t add anyone to help those numbers. The leadoff and number two hitters were particularly hideous, combining for a .285 OBP. (Kalish has a minor league career .365 OBP, while Anderson’s is .372).

Another reason Washington might deal with the Red Sox is because other teams would press them harder for some of the Nats’ top prospects.

With all those caveats in mind, here’s a look at four Washington starters the Red Sox might pursue.

Begin Slideshow

I for one was a bit surprised to hear that Heidi Watney’s replacement is Jenny Bell, whose most recent assignment with ESPN was in Aspen, working on the upcoming Winter X Games.

I am also reminded that she interviewed NFL players last year on their Super Bowl predictions, and hosted the AccuScore segments for ESPN.

A month or so ago I presented you with 27 potential replacements for the lovely Heidi, which you can view here.

Much to my chagrin, I did not include Jenny Dell as one of the 27.

So, to make up for that omission, this slideshow will help you get to know Ms. Dell a little better. It will also describe the uphill battle she faces in the seasons to come.

Begin Slideshow

Theo Epstein, Tito Francona, Jonathan Papelbon, Jed Lowrie, Kyle Weiland, Josh Reddick. None of these names will be with the Red Sox on Opening Day 2012.

That list will undoubtedly grow over the coming weeks, but one name stands out as perhaps the most difficult to replace of all.

Heidi Watney.

As NESN’s on-field reporter for all Red Sox TV broadcasts, the lovely and sexy Ms. Watney was bright enough and capable enough to overcome the initial “eye candy only” snickers. Yes, she is stunning to look at, but she was also a National Merit Scholar and went to the University of San Diego on an academic scholarship, graduating with honors in 2003.

While there, she became Miss San Diego, and was the first runner-up in the 2002 Miss California pageant. 

Prior to joining NESN, Watney was a weekend sports anchor for KMPH in Fresno. She was also a sports talk radio host for 1430 ESPN Radio KFIG Fresno.

At NESN, she hosted The Ultimate Red Sox Show and The Red Sox Report, and also became the on-field reporter for TV broadcasts.

The sad news of her departure was reported in mid-November by CSN New England’s Sean McAdam, who announced that Watney was heading back to California to cover the sidelines for the Los Angeles Lakers.

Media and fan reaction was immediate, and certainly stronger than the mere ripples created by the departure of Lowrie or Reddick.

“Say it ain’t so!” wrote one Yahoo! Sports blogger. “The post-collapse exodus from the Boston Red Sox has officially gone one person too far.”

“Heidi is the latest departure from NESN’s pulchritudinous lineup of jock talkers,” bemoaned the Boston Herald.

Tina Cervasio, Hazel Mae, Kathryn Tappen and Jade McDonald were capable reporters who also added significantly to the sports scenery.

The silver lining is that NESN will undoubtedly want to maintain its reputation for developing fantastic sports babes. I am sure the powers-that-be at the network are hard at work over the holidays, seeking the most dynamic and bodacious talent available.

To help you armchair recruiters out, I’ve assembled 27 prospects for your New Year’s weekend review. I’ve left out the most obvious superstars (e.g. Erin Andrews), for whom a gig with NESN would represent a step backwards. I’ve also left out a few other pretenders who have nothing going for them but looks. After all, this is a savvy sports town, and while we enjoy the eye candy, nothing is sexier than a good-looking woman who also knows sports and can talk about them effectively.

Let me know whom you would most like to see at Fenway Park this summer!

Begin Slideshow

Here in southern New England, I can sense a growing angst as one after another of the top-name closers signs deals with teams other than the Boston Red Sox.

In my opinion, GM Ben Cherington is doing the right thing by resisting the impulse to jump into a bidding war to fill the void left by the departure of Jonathan Papelbon. 

There’s a buyer’s market for closers this year, and the recent spate of closer signings does little to change that. 

Yes, there are now four fewer closers on the market, but just as importantly, there’s four fewer buyers in the market as well. The Philadelphia Phillies (Papelbon), Texas Rangers (Joe Nathan), Kansas City Royals (Jonathan Broxton) and Miami Marlins (Heath Bell) are now out of the picture. And there is still a gaggle of decent relief arms out there.

Let’s not forget that the Red Sox still have an internal option in the forgotten Bobby Jenks, who had closing success elsewhere in his career before signing a two-year, $12 million contract with the Red Sox in December, 2010. 

His 2011 season went down the drain due to a back problem and a potentially dangerous pulmonary embolism, diagnosed when he underwent a pre-surgery exam for the operation on his back. There is every reason to believe that he has as much of a chance as other rehabbing pitchers, such as Broxton. 

As I wrote two weeks ago, “The longer [the Red Sox] wait, the clearer the picture will be. Sure, they may lose out on an option or two, but I’ll wager that any teams who sign free-agent closers in the next few weeks will overpay by acting in haste.”

There’s a sense out there that the Phillies went overboard by giving their Papelbon $50 million on a four-year deal.

Joe Nathan is another injury-risk closer who seems to have gotten an inflated contract ($14 million guaranteed over the next two years, with a vesting option in the third year for another $9 million). I think the Rangers were over-anxious to move Neftali Feliz to the starting rotation.

Nathan, now 37, underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2010 season. According to Ben Nicholson-Smith of mlbtraderumors.com, his average fastball velocity dropped to 92.3 mph in 2011 after sitting in the 93-95 mph range from 2002-09.

And no one should be jumping off the Tobin Bridge because the Marlins signed Heath Bell. They are paying him $27 million over three years with a fourth-year vesting option for another $9 million. While Bell did well in San Diego, temper the rave reviews with the fact that Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in MLB.

How well would he have transitioned to the friendly confines of Fenway? Combine that concern with a big falloff in his strikeout numbers last year, and I’m not surprised the Red Sox did not strongly pursue him.

The one deal that does seem to make sense is the Royals’ signing of Jonathan Broxton to a one-year deal for $4 million plus incentives. 

Broxton pitched fewer than 13 innings in 2011 with a 5.68 ERA. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in September, but if he can regain his earlier form he will be a steal for Kansas City.

Closers are a fickle bunch, as history shows. With few exceptions, they are like shooting stars; they burn brightly for a couple of years, and then fizzle out.

Given how hard they usually throw, injuries are a factor. Consider the four closers who signed long-term deals in the past six years or so: Billy Wagner signed a four-year deal with the Mets, and B.J. Ryan signed a five-year contract with Toronto; Joe Nathan and Francisco Cordero signed four-year deals in excess of $45 million with the Twins and Reds respectively.

Only Cordero escaped major injury during the life of his contract.

Also, after a couple of years on the same team, the rest of the league begins to catch up. Scouting reports, plus increased hitter familiarity with a two-pitch hurler can make for declining results.

Fortunately, GM Cherington is also leery of long-term contracts for relievers—which is one of the reasons he did not compete with the Phillies for Papelbon.

When asked his position on the length of deals for bullpen arms, he replied, “The shorter, the better.” 

The lesson that can be drawn from the Papelbon, Nathan and Bell signings is that Cherington will probably have to overpay if he’s in a hurry to sign a free-agent closer.

The Red Sox would be better off to play the waiting game, or find a closer (such as Huston Street or Andrew Bailey) via trade.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Matt Murton, a right-handed hitting outfielder now playing for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan, is the answer to a great trivia question: Name the other player the Red Sox gave up in the blockbuster 2004 deal involving Nomar Garciaparra.

He was drafted 32nd by the Red Sox in 2003, three slots behind Carlos Quentin and ahead of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Adam Jones and Andre Ethier. Murton played just 155 games in the Red Sox organization before the trade, but during that time he exhibited the ability to get on base that has been the hallmark of his career. 

In 2006, Murton became the Cubs‘ starting left fielder. In August of that year, Murton went 4-for-4 with four doubles and five RBIs in a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, tying the major league mark for doubles in a single game. At the end of the year, his .297 batting average was second on the team to catcher Michael Barrett’s .307. Murton also had 13 home runs and 62 runs batted in. He became a bit of a cult hero in Chicago and earned the nickname “Thunder Matt.”

Unfortunately for Murton, the Cubs were seeking more power in their outfield; bringing in Cliff Floyd and Alfonso Soriano left little room for Murton. Over the next couple of years, the former Georgia Tech outfielder bounced through the A’s and Rockies organizations, never getting enough action to merit a full-time major league job. By the end of 2009, his stat line read: .286/.352/.436 in 1,058 MLB plate appearances. 

According to Anna Katherine Clemmons of ESPN.com, Murton believed that if he could play full time, getting at-bats every day, he could show what he could do. He realized that the only way to do that would be to go to Japan. In 2010, he signed with the Hanshin Tigers of the NPB, the highest Japanese professional league.

As a rookie in Japan he became only the fourth player in Nippon Professional Baseball history to have a 200-hit season. On October 5, 2010, Murton broke Ichiro Suzuki’s single-season hit record  with his 211th hit (Suzuki’s record of 210 was set in 130 games; Murton finished with 214 hits in 144 games). 

Not surprisingly, he won the NPB batting title that year with a .349 average. He also contributed 17 home runs and 91 RBIs to go along with an on-base percentage of .395, a .499 slugging percentage and an .894 OPS.

He continued to hit well in 2011, his option year, and Hanshin wants him back. But every indication is that Murton hopes that his performance in Japan has earned him another shot at  MLB. 

According to Clemmons, “Murton credited his consistency at the plate not to facing different pitchers but rather to his opportunity to hit every day.”

Baseball experts agree that the talent level in Japan is somewhere between AAA and MLB. Murton has made his point, and there is little doubt that he could now improve upon his MLB career line of .286/.352/.436 in 1,058 MLB plate appearances. 

Bottom line: He’s an on-base machine, and there are a lot of similarities with Wade Boggs—another talented hitter who languished in the minors for several years before being given his chance.

With the powerful Red Sox lineup surrounding him, Murton’s ability to constantly get on base could make him an intriguing option as a fourth outfielder, if not the everyday right fielder. 

While Murton will not equal Boggs’ Hall of Fame 162-game average stat line of .328 with a .415 on base percentage, he does have greater power potential than Boggs, who averaged eight HR and 67 RBI per season.

Murton does have a shot at equaling or exceeding Boggs’ .443 slugging percentage and .858 OPS. In addition, he would not require a large contract; he earned $1.5 million in Japan this year.

Murton certainly seems to have more upside than Darnell McDonald, and he could very well give the Reddick/Kalish duo a battle for the right field slot.

New Red Sox GM Ben Cherington has expressed an interest in low-risk signings this off season. Matt Murton should be at the top of that list.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

I’m not sure why many people get so worked up about losing free agent bullpen arms—even ones as good as Jonathan Papelbon.

More so than any other position, filling out the bullpen is a total crapshoot every year anyway.

Take a deep breath and look at recent history.

Exhibit A:

One team that built up a solid bullpen for very little money was the San Francisco Giants.

Perhaps frustrating to Boston fans and management, three of their stellar performers were once on the Red Sox roster. Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez were former Boston relievers allowed to walk when their contracts were up. Guillermo Mota was also a member of the Red Sox organization for a brief period, coming to Boston as the third Marlin in the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell trade. He was flipped to Cleveland two months later as part of the trade that brought in Coco Crisp and others for Andy Marte and Kelly Shoppach.

The Giants viewed Lopez as their most important free agent to re-sign this offseason. Just to show what an inexact science bullpen talent evaluation really is, consider this sequence. After blowing up to a 9.26 ERA in 14 appearances for the Red Sox in 2009 (for which he earned $1.35 million), Lopez signed in Pittsburgh for $775,000 and sported an excellent ERA of 2.79 in 50 appearances for the lowly Pirates. The Giants traded for him at the deadline and he rewarded San Francisco with a stellar 1.42 ERA in 27 outings. The Giants then signed him to a one-year contract for 2011 ($2.38 million, 2.72 ERA, 70 appearances) and just last week extended him with a two-year deal worth $8.5 million.

The Red Sox acquired Ramirez from Kansas City after the 2008 season in the outbound Coco Crisp deal. Ramirez signed a $441,000 contract for 2009, and won seven games in 70 appearances with a 2.84 ERA. The following year he received a bump to $1.15M, saw his ERA rise to 4.46 and was gone at the trading deadline to the Giants. 

San Francisco gave up an eighth-round draft pick, the forgettable Daniel Turpen, gone from the Red Sox to the Rockies organization nine months later.

The change of scenery worked wonders for Ramirez, who was lights out for the Giants for the rest of 2010 with a miniscule ERA of 0.67. He continued to perform well in San Francisco last year, posting a 2.62 ERA in 66 games.

Mota, whom some considered the 2011 MVP of the San Francisco bullpen, is a veteran who came up with the Expos in 1999. The Giants are his eighth team, and 2011 was one of his most productive years—even though he was only given a minor league deal with a spring training invitation.

He ended up being the San Francisco equivalent of Alfredo Aceves for the Red Sox, eating innings as both short and long man as well as starting a game.

Exhibit B:

At the end of the 2010 season, the Tampa Bay Rays lost virtually every arm they had in what was a very strong bullpen. Dan Wheeler signed with the Red Sox, and Chad Qualls, Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour, and Joaquin Benoit all left as free agents. (Most signed one-year deals elsewhere, and may be available again this year.)

Coming into 2011, Tampa’s bullpen appeared to be a much bigger problem than Boston’s. But look what happened!

Through the summer, the Rays mixed and matched, and through a combination of rookies (Brandon Gomes and Jake McGee) and Maddon’s various reclamation projects, they ended up with a relief staff that was one of the best in the majors.

Even their very reliable closer, Kyle Farnsworth, was a scrap-heap rescue.

Was it a smooth transition? Certainly not. As Alex Heeren wrote for SB Nation Tampa Bay, by the end of July the Rays had used 13 relief pitchers; seven were called up from Durham in July alone.

But, as Jeff Briscoe reported for Yahoo! Sports, one of the reasons Joe Maddon was named AL Manager of the Year this past week was because of the job he did restructuring that bullpen. 

And Madden (and the Rays ownership) did not spend big money to do it.

Conclusion: 

These two very successful bullpens consisted of a combination of non-performers who flourished in new environments, as well as youngsters who were developed by their teams internally.

The bottom line is that decent relievers seem to materialize out of nowhere every year. The conundrum is that some of the good relievers in one year were total disasters just the year before. They seem to run out of gas in one park, division or league, and are rejuvenated by a change of scenery.

Conversely, some of the best firemen in 2011 will turn out to be expensive duds in 2012.

The argument here is that there is no true recipe for success. That’s why signing several low-risk, inexpensive free agents (and throwing in a few prospects from the farm) seems preferable to investing a lot of money (and therefore credibility) into just a couple of guys.

So relax, Red Sox Nation—there will be plenty of bullpen arms to go around. Better to focus your energy (and money) on starting pitching.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com