However, while his tendency to give up the occasional free pass has hurt him in the past, something changed this year that made him a very effective pitcher –that is until a start against the Florida Marlins on June 30  derailed his season.

In his first 14 starts this season, Pelfrey went 10-2 with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, but has posted an 0-3 record with a 12.89 ERA and a 3.41 WHIP over his last four starts.

Trying to decipher this Jekyl-and-Hyde act isn’t easy, but I’ve sifted through the numbers for you and think I have figured out what has plagued Pelfrey over the last month. First, let’s take a look at his peripheral stats before and after June 30 (July stats do not count his start on July 19).

It’s never a good sign when a pitcher’s strikeout rate decreases steadily every month. This means more contact is being made and with the ballooning walk rate (8.1 BB/9 in July), that means more players on base to score runs. Pelfrey was doing a good job limiting his walks, especially in June (1.99 BB/9 in June), but has gotten away from the approach that worked for him all season—throwing fastballs for strikes. Take a look at the following chart from texasleaguers.com:

I was watching last night’s Red Sox-Rangers game and as Cliff Lee was retiring hitter after hitter after hitter, I kept thinking to myself, “is this guy really this good?” It wasn’t just the outs, but it was how he was getting them. Four times he retired the side in order in fewer than 10 pitches, which allowed him to enter the ninth inning with a pitch count of 85.

Unfortunately he allowed the tying run in the ninth, which spoiled his chance for a complete game victory, but that outing got me thinking; Cliff Lee doesn’t get enough respect in fantasy baseball these days.

When thinking of the top pitchers in baseball the names Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez and Adam Wainwright come regularly into the conversation. Then you have the up-and-coming guys like Jon Lester, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson knocking on their door.

Where does that leave poor Cliff Lee? He’s only won a Cy Young award and has been the hottest pitching commodity during the last two trade deadlines.

And yet, people don’t seem to give him the credit he deserves, because right now he is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He has pitched as many complete games as league leader Roy Halladay in five fewer starts and leads the league with a 0.94 WHIP.

On Wednesday, I named him one of the best values among starting pitchers so far in fantasy baseball and keep in mind that he missed all of April with an oblique injury.

A couple of things stand out when you look at Cliff Lee’s peripherals. First, his 13.85 K/BB ratio is off the charts as he bests second place Roy Halladay (6.74 K/BB) by a healthy margin. Cliff Lee is helped by his Brett Saberhagen-like control (7 BB in 121 2/3 IP) and his ability to get ahead of hitters (70 F-strike percentage), which allows him to go deeper into games thus increasing his chance to rack up the wins.

Lee is one of those pitchers that does everything right and while he doesn’t put up gaudy strikeout numbers, the gains in all the other categories make him more valuable than guys like Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia and Felix Hernandez.

For the rest of the season I would rank Lee fifth among starting pitchers behind Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson.

For the original article and more up-to-date fantasy baseball analysis check us out at Baseball Professor !

The second half is underway and with that comes trade deadlines and playoff races. Probably the three most exciting months of the year, but if you don’t prepare the right way you might be paying more attention to weekly episodes of “Wipeout” rather than Baseball Tonight.

Don’t worry because Baseball Professor is here to make sure you get the right guys for the stretch run to keep your team in contention with our second half players to target right now.

Catcher

Chris – Matt Wieters (BAL):  For those of you in head-to-head leagues, don’t forget that Wieters was a fantasy playoff darling last year. He batted .362 in September and posted a .935 OPS.

Bryan – Miguel Montero (ARI):  Chris Snyder has had some success in Montero’s absence (sound like the reverse of last season?) and is stealing some at-bats, but Montero is the better hitter and sooner or later the Diamondbacks will realize it…again.

George – Kurt Suzuki (OAK):  One of my preseason favorites, Suzuki has underperformed so far this season. I don’t expect him to finish with a batting average of .252 so a better second half is in store.

First Base

Chris – Adam LaRoche (ARI):  Those looking for a second half bopper without the high price tag should look into acquiring the services of LaRoche. His career second half batting average is nearly 50 points higher than it is in the first half.

Bryan – Pablo Sandoval (SF):  Kung Fu Panda is too good to be batting .263 with just six homers. His line drive rate is down from last season and his HR/FB rate is abysmal, so there is obvious room for improvement in this Vladimir Guerrero clone.

George – Adam LaRoche (ARI):  If there was a poster for second half success then LaRoche would be the poster boy. He has a .300 career average in the second half and has hit three fewer home runs in 172 fewer games.

Second Base

Chris – Ian Kinsler (TEX):  His lack of power may scare some of his owners, but he’s performing well in every other category. I’ll take the decrease in power if he’s going to bat over .300 hitting third in that lineup.

Bryan – Howie Kendrick (LAA):  Kendrick had a great June (.301/3/20) and a fantastic second half last season (.948 OPS) so if he’s available, make a play for him.

George – Ian Stewart (COL):  Stewart has been up and down this season, but he went into the All-Star break batting .385 with two home runs and nine RBI over his last seven games. He’s someone I think is capable of putting up monster numbers at any point and I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit 10-15 home runs the rest of the way.

Third Base

Chris – Alex Rodriguez (NYY):  During the Home Run Derby, A-Rod credited his recent hot streak to his hip finally feeling healthy. His numbers will really start to take off when Mark Teixeira gets going.

Bryan – Aramis Ramirez (CHC):  This was the easiest selection by far. Ramirez couldn’t get going at all (and I couldn’t bring myself to drop him), but a recent five-game stretch in which he went 11-for-21 with four home runs, nine RBI, and seven extra base hits has given me all the confidence in the world.

George – Pablo Sandoval (SF):  I just can’t believe that a 23-year old who has hit .330 in his short career just flat out forgot how to hit. Sandoval currently sports a paltry .263/.322/.383 triple-slash line, but he should turn that around in the second half and start hitting for some more power. He currently has a .289 BABIP, which is far below his mark in 2008 (.356) and 2009 (.350).

Shortstop

Chris – Elvis Andrus (TEX):  Andrus has slowed of late but still has the most stolen bases among shortstops. He’s much safer in the health department than Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins and he really does have more power than Christian Guzman. I promise.

Bryan – Miguel Tejada (BAL):  The shortstop position sucks this season, and unless you have Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Rafael Furcal, or Ben Zobrist, you’re probably starting someone you didn’t expect to own. Add Tejada to that list with his .306/3/12 line over the last 30 days. Not great, but little has been at the position.

George – Jimmy Rollins (PHI):  Like clockwork, Rollins starts hitting after the All-Star break and it shows with his .285 career batting average in the second half – compared to a .265 in the first half. He’s 32 years old and batting .254 with just four home runs and three stolen bases so you could probably get him for cheap.

Outfield

Chris – Jay Bruce (CIN):  Bruce has had a solid year, not a spectacular one, which means his price tag shouldn’t be too high. His power is like a sleeping giant and could go off at any moment, which could make him a big time second half player.

Bryan – Adam Lind (TOR):  As June came to a close, Adam Lind was sitting not-so-pretty with a .204 average and a .608 OPS. However, in just 32 at-bats in July, Lind has pushed his OPS up to .640, its highest since June 10. Lind was a fantasy monster all last season, but his second half saw noticeable increases in his HR and RBI rates so take a flier on this bargain basement outfielder.

George – Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS):  Ellsbury owners have to be frustrated at this point and even with a rehab stint in the near future, who knows what setbacks will arise this time around? It’s worth seeing what it would take to get him because Ellsbury was a top 10 outfielder last year and could be in store for a monster second half if he can get on the field.

Starting Pitcher

Chris – Gavin Floyd (CHW):  After a horrific first two months, Floyd has been dominant since the end of May. Last year he also had a bad first two months and rebounded to have one of the best second halves in the league.

Bryan – Travis Wood (CIN):  Chances are you can pick up Wood off the waiver wire and hope the one-hitter against Philly is a sign of starts to come. Wood has good control and plays in the Senior Circuit. As I mentioned in my column on second half prospects , Cincinnati’s success with Mike Leake gives you a shred of confidence that Wood can be successful too.

George – Ricky Nolasco (FLA):  Nolasco is already starting to heat up (34 K:5 BB in last 28 IP) so you should act quickly on acquiring this second-half stud. He’s done it two years in a row so there’s no reason you shouldn’t expect it again in 2010.

Relief Pitcher

Chris – Chris Perez (CLE):  Kerry Wood is likely to be traded, which paves the way for Perez to be the Indians closer in the second half. He’s pitching well and already has experience filling in for Wood.

Bryan – John Axford (MIL):  Axford has been a rock for the Brewers since taking over for Trevor Hoffman so chances are he isn’t available on the waiver wire. He might come cheap for those who think Trevor Hoffman will win the job back, but be wary that if Milwaukee falls completely out of the race they may give the job back to Hoffman so he can get to 600 saves.

George – Chris Perez (CLE):  Kerry Wood will get traded, and if not, the Indians will throw Perez in the mix just to see what they have with him going into next year. Perez showed that he could close when Wood was out with an injury earlier this season so you would be wise to stash him now before the rest of your league takes notice.

For the original article and more up-to-date fantasy baseball analysis check us out at Baseball Professor !

It’s the Dave Duncan philosophy – pitch strikes and pound the bottom of the strike zone – and if you haven’t noticed…it works.

We saw it at its best last year when Joel Pineiro  put up a 3.42 ERA, which was actually worse  than his FIP of 3.27, and a WHIP of 1.15 on his way to a 15-12 record. To put this in perspective, Piniero’s career ERA before 2009 was 4.55 and his WHIP was 1.38.

The big difference was his ability to induce the groundball, which he did 60.5 percent of the time (previous career high was 48.6). Not surprising, he was tops in the majors, beating second place Derek Lowe  by 4.2 percent. He also threw first strikes 65.4 percent of the time, which was also a career high.

What Duncan saw was a pitcher who had a nice sinking fastball that topped out around 88-91 miles per hour, but he was only throwing it 55 percent of the time. Seeing as his sinking fastball was his most quality pitch, Duncan changed that in 2009 and Pineiro threw his fastball 71 percent of the time.

There are several reasons why ground ball pitchers have success and it’s because ground balls are less likely to turn into hits and can be very beneficial to pitchers with runners on base. Here are 2009’s average BABIPs based on batted ball type:

Ground balls: .237
Fly Balls: .138
Line Drives: .724
Bunts: .376

At first glance you will notice that fly balls are less likely to fall as hits, but they can also lead to home runs, which can be a killer if men are on base. In contrast, a ground ball with men on base is a double play more often than not.

We are just one month into the season, but it seems that this groundball inducing approach is working as six of the top 10 starters in ERA this season have induced ground balls over 50 percent of the time. Only Mike Pelfrey  (47.8%), Livan Hernandez  (43.9%), Barry Zito  (43.8%) and John Danks  (42.9%) failed to reach that mark. I already expressed my feelings on Zito in a previous blog post .

I decided to take a look at some of the hot starts in 2010 and give my two cents on whether I think they can sustain their performance deep into the season.

Jaime Garcia, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (4 GS, 26 IP, 1.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 17 K)

Good Signs:  3.69 xFIP, 69.9 GB%

Warning Signs:  .221 BABIP, 80.8 LOB%, 47.6 F-Strike%

My Take:  It’s only one month into the 2010 season, but 23-year old Jaime Garcia has put himself on a fast track to earn Rookie of the Year honors. He eventually will allow a home run this season, but it’s hard to hit home runs when hid ground ball rate is 70 percent. His BABIP (.221) and strand rate (80.8%) are better than average, so while we can expect a little regression that does not make Garcia a candidate to post a 4.00+ ERA. His xFIP is still a very good 3.69 and he has a good defense behind so I’m all in on Garcia this year. Just don’t rely on him for the playoffs because the Cardinals will look to limit him to around 170 innings.

Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado Rockies (5 GS, 34.1 IP, 0.79 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 31 K)

Good signs:  3.60 xFIP, 53.5 GB%, changeup use up 6.6 percent (4.7 RAA)

Warning signs:  91.7 LOB%, .251 BABIP, 3.67 BB/9

My Take:  Jimenez has already thrown a no-hitter this season and has yet to surrender a home run en route to a 5-0 record. It’s been a good month for him and his owners can expect many more good months from the flame-throwing righty as he is finally making his leap into fantasy acedom. One red flag is that Jimenez’s current 91.7 percent strand rate is 20 percent higher than the league average, but his xFIP is still a very good 3.60 and it’s become more and more clear that Coors Field is no longer the home run-inducing park it used to be. Could Jimenez be the first Rockies pitcher to win a Cy Young? I say he’s pretty darn close.

Mike Pelfrey, SP, New York Mets (4 GS, 26 IP, 0.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 19 K)

Good signs:  47.8 GB%, 64.4 F-Strike%, new split fingered fastball valued at 2.36 RAA

Warning signs:  93.6 LOB%, .249 BABIP, 4.30 xFIP, 4.50 BB/9

My Take:  Pelfrey is the third pitcher in a row who has yet to surrender a home run, but unlike the other two his home park could be a legit reason for it. Obviously there are some troubling signs for Pelfrey, mainly his ridiculous strand rate, and his 4.30 xFIP is not far off his 2009 season where he posted a 5.03 ERA. However, Pelfrey is a different pitcher and with his new split-fingered fastball he is getting ahead of hitters more often and as he gets more comfortable with the pitch his control will improve. Just two years ago Pelfrey posted a 3.72 ERA and a 2.87 BB/9 over 200 innings and I think he will only get better as the season goes on.

Francisco Liriano, SP, Minnesota Twins (4 GS, 29 IP, 0.93 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 27 K)

Good signs:  3.10 BB/9, 3.27 xFIP, 52.8 GB%, FB% down 12 percent, 62.7 F-Strike%

Warning signs:  .247 BABIP, 89.3 LOB%

It’s clear here that Liriano has a lot more positives going for him and that’s because I think he’s back to pre-injury form. The most encouraging sign to me is the drop in FB% as he is allowing fly balls only 29.2 percent of the time. Liriano is at his best when he is locating his slider and it’s clear he has it back as his walks are at a career-low and his F-Strike% is at a career-high. He might not strike out a batter per inning anymore, but he will be close and the improvement in his control and ground ball rate is well worth the trade off. If he can keep these trends up and stay relatively healthy, there is no reason why he cannot be a top 20 pitcher in 2010.

Livan Hernandez, SP, Washington Nationals (4 GS, 31 IP, 0.87 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10 K)

Good signs:  N/A

Warning signs:  .180 BABIP, 99.2 LOB%, 5.04 xFIP, 2.90 K/9

My Take:  If Hernandez had any more red flags you would mistake him for a golf course. His LOB% is laughably (no, really I actually laughed when I saw it) close to perfect and his BABIP hasn’t been lower than .300 since 2004 when he was on the Expos. Yes, it has been that long folks. You should really look no further than Hernandez’s xFIP, which suggest he should have an ERA over five. If you can sell anyone on Hernandez I would take the trade in a heartbeat because the future does not look bright.

Jonathan Sanchez, SP, San Fransisco Giants (4 GS, 24.1 IP, 1.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 33 K)

Good signs:  3.58 xFIP, 12.21 K/9, 66.3 Contact%

Warning signs:  4.81 BB/9, 82/1 LOB%, 50 FB% (0 HRA), 34.6 GB%

My Take:  There’s no doubt that Sanchez is already an elite strikeout pitcher as he can make a batter swing and miss as well as anyone in the league. However, he has yet to show that he can fix his control issues and his 4.81 BB/9 is not much of an improvement from last year. He is also giving up more fly balls, but has yet to allow a home run this season. That won’t keep up and until he can get his walks per nine under four, Sanchez will struggle to maintain a good ERA. Sanchez gets a big boost in K/9 leagues, but he is still no better than a fifth starting pitcher in standard leagues.

For the original article and more like this one check us out at Baseball Professor  !