Kuzul

As everyone knows by now, Melky Cabrera‘s season (and probably career) with the San Francisco Giants is over. While he might make it back if the Giants last more than five games in the postseason, his 50-game ban will certainly keep him out for the rest of the pennant race.

What everyone probably doesn’t know is that Cabrera’s absence is almost statistically meaningless for the Giants. Here’s why:

Cabrera, until he was suspended, was worth approximately 4.5 wins above replacement (WAR) for the Giants. That’s an excellent figure, and was second among the team’s hitters—behind MVP candidate Buster Posey, of course. But based on Cabrera’s expected regression (which was probably a little more harsh than usual because of his disappointing early years), he was only projected to be worth 0.8 WAR the rest of the way (All WAR projections courtesy of Fangraphs.com). Keep that figure in mind.

Now, Gregor Blanco, who started the season as a world-beater—he hit .315 in May—is Cabrera’s primary replacement in the Giants’ lineup. And while Blanco hasn’t had a month anywhere near as good as his May performance, he’s still got some value. He’ll take a walk, as evidenced by his 12.1 percent walk rate, which is second on the team behind Brandon Belt. He’ll also steal a bag once he’s on base—he’s tied with Angel Pagan for the team lead with 19, despite inconsistent playing time.

And defensively, Blanco has been substantially better than Cabrera both this season, and during their careers.

But here’s the interesting part: Blanco is projected to be worth 0.3 WAR for the rest of the regular season. That’s only half a win less than Cabrera. So, all things being equal, the statistics indicate that there really won’t be a huge drop-off in expected win value from Cabrera to Blanco.

Of course, there are anecdotal arguments to be made that the difference will be more dramatic than the numbers show. You could argue that Cabrera’s presence in the lineup has a bigger effect on the rest of the Giants’ hitters or that pitchers will never be as afraid to face Blanco as they were when Cabrera was at bat.

But those sorts of arguments go both ways. Anecdotally, maybe the Giants lineup will be better than before because they’ll pull together and rally in the face of Cabrera’s suspension. Maybe Brandon Belt and Hunter Pence’s improvements (both are red-hot right now) will more than make up for the loss of Cabrera. And maybe Pablo Sandoval will be just as good as Cabrera was. After all, the Panda is projected to be worth one full win above replacement the rest of the way, more than Cabrera’s 0.8.

Even if those arguments balance out and the rest of the Giants’ lineup continues to perform as they have all season, the loss of Cabrera is far from devastating. Gregor Blanco is a solid replacement, despite how much he’s cooled off since the start of the season.

If the Giants lose the division by just a half-game, I guess that half-win difference between Cabrera and Blanco will matter after all. But for now, there’s no reason to worry about the missing Melk-Man.

In Gregor we trust.

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Brought in to solidify the middle of the San Francisco Giants‘ lineup, Hunter Pence has actually made it worse during his short tenure as a Giant.

The right fielder has gone just 6-for-43 for San Francisco in 10 games. He’s struck out 11 times and walked just once. Overall he’s hitting .140, with an OPS of .365.

These 10 games absolutely represent a small sample size, so he can’t be judged on his performance as a Giant alone. But Pence is very obviously pressing. He’s diving at pitches, trying to prove himself to his teammates and Giant fans with every wild swing. He’s always been antsy at the plate, with his body in constant motion. But he’s looked more than antsy so far; he’s looked anxious, in a teeth-gritting, silently desperate sort of way.

There’s no way Pence is actually this bad. He’s clearly hurting himself by simply trying to do too much. In fact, he’s hit a couple of balls hard that have unluckily turned into outs.

There is reason to be concerned, though.

First of all, Pence’s last month in Philadelphia was absolutely awful. In July, he hit .217 with just one homer in 22 games. He, again, rarely walked, leading to an OBP of .278 and an OPS of .531. That was for an entire month. Add that up to his first 10 games in August and something looks seriously wrong.

The fact that Pence was so bad in July makes it harder to argue that his poor performance as a Giant is due solely to the fact that he’s pressing.

There’s probably not an easy fix for what Pence is going through. The more he struggles, the harder he presses—which gives this whole thing a scary, downward spiral-type of feel.

Manager Bruce Bochy would certainly be justified in dropping Pence in the order in an effort to take some of the pressure off. Bochy has certainly done that before, most notably with Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Belt during some of their prolonged slumps.

Whatever the Giants do, they’re going to have to figure out how to get something out of Pence in a hurry. With only a few weeks remaining in the season, the Dodgers have pulled even with the Giants. If Pence can, at the very least, rediscover the above-average form he showed as a Phillie in May and June, the Giants’ offense will be better for it.

But if he keeps pressing, he’ll keep killing the Giants.

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According to Andrew Baggerly of CSN Bay Area, Pablo Sandoval will return to the San Francisco Giants‘ infield sometime in the middle of next week.

Bruce Bochy said trainers tell him Pablo Sandoval is a week away from activation. He’s eligible Thursday.

— Andrew Baggarly (@CSNBaggs) August 5, 2012

Make no mistake, Sandoval will play third base when he returns. Bruce Bochy doesn’t want to see a repeat of Sandoval’s hamstring pull in a stretch at first base, so the Panda will return to his familiar hot corner. That’s certainly good news for the Giants’ offense.

But it’s probably also bad news for Brandon Crawford because Marco Scutaro, who’s been manning third base since he came over from Colorado, can play his position.

Crawford has been one of baseball’s worst shortstops this season—literally. Crawford is dead last among starting shortstops in OPS. It’s been a disappointing year for Crawford, who the Giants didn’t exactly expect to be an all-star. But even with meager expectations, Crawford’s useless bat and shakier-than-anticipated defense have been a complete disaster.

To put it kindly, Crawford doesn’t deserve to see any more starts at shortstop this year.

Marco Scutaro, however, has played 666 career games at short, and his numbers are a hell of a lot better than Crawford’s—although it would be nearly impossible for them to be worse.

In 27 games at short this year, Scutaro has hit .328 with three homers. That’s a small sample size from this season, but even if we only took those numbers, Scutaro has outproduced more than a half-season’s worth of Crawford starts at the position. Of course, Scutaro’s 2012 games at short were played in the thin air of Coors Field. But if we look at his career production at shortstop, Scutaro’s OPS of .757 blows away the .613 figure Crawford has put up this year.

But what about defense?

Crawford’s UZR of 3.1 ranks him 14th among shortstops. He’s committed 13 errors so far this year, which ties him for fifth-most among shortstops. So, whether you prefer new-age or old-school, the numbers don’t show Crawford to be all that great in the field, either.

Overall, Scutaro has committed 11 errors this year while playing second base and shortstop. His .978 career fielding percentage is better than Crawford’s .970 figure.

Even if Crawford has a slight advantage defensively—although I’m being kind by honoring his statistically unsubstantiated reputation as a good defensive player—Scutaro’s enormous advantage at the plate makes him the clear choice to play shortstop for the Giants down the stretch.

The return of Pablo Sandoval means the end of Brandon Crawford this year.

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When the San Francisco Giants acquired Hunter Pence just before this year’s trade deadline, they took the first step toward repeating a horrible mistake. The second step of that process is already looking likely: there’s talk of signing Pence to a long-term deal.

The mistake referred to is sitting on his couch somewhere, still collecting the balance of a $60 million contract he signed with the Giants in December of 2007. That’s right, I’m talking about Aaron Rowand.

The similarities between Rowand and Pence are striking, and the Giants don’t seem to recognize them. If they can’t see that they’ve got Rowand 2.0 in right field, they’re doomed to repeat the same egregious error they made by giving Rowand $12 million a year.

It’s not just because both Pence and Rowand are former Phillies. And it’s not just because Pence and Rowand each joined the Giants a year removed from their best seasons.

The problem is pretty simple: the Giants don’t seem to see Pence and Rowand are virtually the same player.

Looking at Pence’s four most recent seasons (including this one) before becoming a Giant, his average OPS is .810. That’s a pretty good figure, but keep in mind that it could be artificially inflated by playing in Houston and Philadelphia, both hitter’s parks.

Now look at Rowand’s last four full seasons before becoming a Giant. In those years (two with the White Sox and two with the Phillies), Rowand’s average OPS was .818—slightly better than Pence’s. Rowand’s OPS also benefited from playing in hitter-friendly environments in Chicago and Philadelphia.

In terms of walk and strikeout rates for the four-year periods we’re comparing, Pence and Rowand are again extremely similar. Rowand struck out about 17 percent of the time, which is also true for Pence. Pence walked about two percent more often than Rowand in that span.

Need more evidence? How about WAR? In the four seasons from 2004 to 2007, Rowand was worth 17.5 wins above replacement. Since 2009, including his projected WAR of just 1.7 this year, Pence will have been worth just 13.6.

And that’s where things get ugly. The comparison between Pence and Rowand is no longer one that shows they’re similar. Now, we can look at the simplest data and know that Pence’s four most recent pre-Giant years have actually been worse than Rowand’s.

So, why are the Giants enamored with Pence and have designs on rewarding him with what could be a deal worth $13-14 million annually? They realize that’s even more than the awful deal they gave Rowand in December of 2007, right?

To be fair to Pence, he’s a little younger than Rowand was when the Giants dropped $60 million on him. And Pence is a midseason acquisition who is absolutely an improvement over what the Giants had in the outfield before the deadline.

There’s no question Pence makes the Giants better this season. But locking him up like the Giants did with Rowand would be a catastrophe.

Pence, like Rowand was, is a gritty, talented, hard-nosed free-swinger who hustles and endears himself to fans. And as was the case with Rowand, the Giants have a grossly mistaken perception of how valuable those qualities are.

GM Brian Sabean, who signed Rowand to that awful deal, should know by now that guys like Rowand and Pence don’t age well. He should also be smart enough to recognize that when the Giants acquired Rowand, he was actually a better player than Pence is now.

Finally, he should know not to sign Pence to a deal like the one that blew up in his face with Rowand, because based on the comparison between Rowand and Pence, this one could turn out even worse.

The terrifying truth about Hunter Pence is that the Giants can’t seem to see who he truly is.

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