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Is Brian Wilson or Joakim Soria the Better Soriano Replacement for the Yankees?

One reason the New York Yankees are not—and should not be—interested in re-signing reliever Rafael Soriano to the four-year, $60 million deal he’s reportedly seeking is because there are plenty of bargains to be found on the free-agent market.

Two former closers, in particular, are the sort of low-risk, high-reward proposition the Yankees should be making as they try to keep their spending low and their payroll within range of the $189 million luxury tax threshold for 2014. 

At the end of October, the Kansas City Royals declined Joakim Soria‘s $8 million option for 2013, giving him a $750,000 buyout instead. Soria missed all of this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.

San Francisco Giants reliever Brian Wilson may soon join him in free agency. The San Francisco Chronicle‘s Henry Schulman reports that the Giants don’t want to bring back Wilson for 80 percent of his 2012 salary, equaling $6.8 million. Wilson is also coming off reconstructive elbow surgery and Sergio Romo is now entrenched as the Giants closer. 

Either pitcher could be a nice low-cost replacement for Soriano in the Yankees bullpen. Both Soria or Wilson could also serve as a backup closer for Mariano Rivera. But which of them would be a better fit?

Shortly after hitting free agency, Soria‘s agent let it be known that his client would be willing to pitch in a setup role for the Yankees because of the opportunity to play with Rivera.

As of yet, however, the Yankees haven’t contacted Soria about such a possibility. Perhaps general manager Brian Cashman is waiting until after the team re-signs Rivera before making another move for the bullpen. Additionally, he may be waiting to see how the market develops for Soriano. 

Meanwhile, Wilson’s preference is reportedly to return to the Giants. But San Francisco doesn’t want to just pay him without knowing how healthy he is.

The team would like to sign Wilson for a much lower base salary and give Wilson the opportunity to earn his former paycheck back through various incentives. Wilson, however, thinks his seven seasons with the Giants—four of which were excellent—warrant more financial reward. 

To be certain, Wilson’s act would be big—and possibly become unbearable—in New York. The man loves having a camera and microphone in front of him and plenty of those would follow him around in the country’s biggest media market. If Wilson wanted to keep his brand thriving, the Yankees would probably be the best team for him.

However, a big part of Wilson’s brand would end up in a trash bag if he signed with the Yanks. The team has an infamous policy against players sporting any more facial hair than a mustache. Wilson’s beard would have to go if he donned the pinstripes. But frankly, doesn’t Wilson need to get rid of that monstrosity anyway? 

Wilson’s act probably plays far better around Giants teammates who are accustomed to his quirky personality. With a straightlaced team like the Yankees, he might have to tone his personality down a bit. 

The Yankees would presumably have no such concerns with Soria. He’s a quieter, less showy personality who just does his job and leaves it at that.

The most controversial thing ever associated with Soria was a nickname that Royals fans gave him, tabbing him “The Mexicutioner.” But the reliever eventually asked for the nickname to be retired because he was concerned about it being associated with the extreme violence taking place in Mexico. 

That’s a guy who will probably fit in a clubhouse with Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and Rivera much better. 

But what about from a baseball standpoint? 

Both Wilson and Soria have struck out batters at approximately the same rate over their careers. Wilson strikes out 9.6 batters per nine innings, while Soria punches out 9.7 per game. Either one would be an excellent choice to bring into a tight, late-inning situation that requires a strikeout.

However, Soria distances himself from Wilson when it comes to walks and hits allowed per nine innings. During his five major league seasons, Soria has averaged 6.9 hits and 2.5 walks per game. His WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) is 1.043.

Compare that to Wilson, who’s averaged eight hits and four walks per game. His WHIP is 1.338. 

If we’re talking about a setup reliever, the pitcher who allows fewer hits and walks is probably the way to go. Soria thus looks better suited for such a role with the Yankees. 

I’ve argued in a past article that the Yankees could arguably get by without either Rivera or Soriano in their bullpen next season. But we now know Rivera is coming back. David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain should be capable setup men. The Yanks are also already working in a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery in David Aardsma

But if you’re of the belief that a bullpen can never have enough live arms, and Cashman has operated that way in the past, then signing Soria or Wilson makes sense. Soria would probably be a better fit with the Yankees’ way of doing business, however. 

The Yankees GM has done this with his starting rotation, taking chances on pitchers like Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon. Why not do it with the bullpen as well? 

 

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What Dominoes Fall Next for the Atlanta Braves If B.J. Upton Signs with Them?

According to reports, the Atlanta Braves could get their man this week. 

Several insiders, including ESPN’s Jim Bowden, believe that the Braves are the leading contender to sign center fielder B.J. Upton. But only slightly. The bidding war between Atlanta and the Philadelphia Phillies looks to be a fierce one. 

Both teams need center fielders. Both need right-handed bats in their lineups. And each club would surely like to deprive an NL East division rival of its top free-agent target while improving its own roster with a star player.

However, it appears that the Braves have the edge for Upton. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports that the 28-year-old outfielder initially favored the Phillies when the free-agency period began. But after meeting with Braves general manager Frank Wren, former manager Bobby Cox and current skipper Fredi Gonzalez, Upton’s interest “seemed to soar.” 

Upton would obviously be a huge acquisition for Atlanta. First and foremost, he would replace Michael Bourn in center field. Perhaps Upton provides less defensive range, but he compensates with greater power and nearly the same level of speed. 

Whether Gonzalez chooses to bat the center fielder toward the top of the lineup or in the middle of the order as a run producer, Upton’s right-handed bat is a much-needed complement to a mix heavy in left-handed hitters with Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann. 

But Wren won’t be done with his offseason shopping even if he lands Upton. The Braves still need another player to fill their vacancy in left field, with Martin Prado moving to third base to replace the retired Chipper Jones. 

Atlanta could also decide to keep Prado in left field and pursue a third baseman. But Kevin Youkilis seems to be the only notable player available at that position, and the Braves appear to be looking for a longer-term solution there. 

That leaves the trade option, which might suit the Braves better, because they have a surplus of starting pitching. Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado could be used to get some help at third base. Tommy Hanson would also be a more veteran option, though he’s coming off a mediocre season. 

Do the Braves have enough to make the San Diego Padres consider trading Chase Headley?

The National League’s RBI leader would certainly be a great fit in the Atlanta lineup. Headley could be expected to exceed the 31 home runs he hit in 2012 batting in Turner Field rather than Petco Park, even with the Padres moving its fences in next year. 

Another possibility—though perhaps not as long term of a solution—would be the Detroit Tigers‘ Jhonny Peralta.

The Tigers are reportedly looking to upgrade defensively at shortstop by signing Stephen Drew. Peralta could then be dealt to a team seeking help at third base. The Arizona Diamondbacks are reportedly interested, but could the Braves be intrigued as well? Peralta would certainly be an option less expensive than Headley

But the Braves apparently would prefer to bring in another outfielder. Bowman also mentions in his MLB.com report that Atlanta might have the resources to sign Upton and someone else to play left field. It’s believed that Upton will sign a contract in the range of five years for $75 million.

That could leave Atlanta with enough money to also go after Shane Victorino, who would bring speed, defense and some pop to the lineup. He will also likely be cheaper in a market rich with center fielders. 

However, if the Braves are looking to trade some of their starting pitching, they could probably get a player with the most upside in the outfield. Atlanta was previously rumored to be interested in Colorado Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler, but signing Upton addresses that need. 

But what about Wil Myers? The Kansas City Star‘s Bob Dutton reports that the Royals are open to trading their top prospect for a No. 1 starting pitcher. Between Double-A and Triple-A this season, Myers hit .314 with a .987 OPS, 37 homers and 109 RBI. 

The only problem for Atlanta here is that the Royals are looking for a veteran No. 1 starter. Rumors have attached Kansas City to the Boston Red Sox for Jon Lester or the Tampa Bay Rays for James Shields. The Royals aren’t interested in prospects like Teheran or Delgado, as highly regarded as they might be. They need a proven, top-of-the-rotation ace. 

David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution mentions another Royal as a possibility. Could Alex Gordon be someone who interests the Braves? He’s a left fielder, which fits right into their lineup. 

Defensively, Gordon has won two straight Gold Gloves, and FanGraphs‘ Ultimate Zone Rating credits him with saving 14 runs more than the average left fielder. Additionally, he earned 24 defensive runs saved this season, the third-highest total in MLB. 

Gordon led the majors with 51 doubles this season to go with 14 home runs, 72 RBI and an .822 OPS. He does bat left-handed, but if the Braves add Upton to their lineup, that likely won’t be as much of a concern for them. 

Yet one more player to consider would be the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Justin Upton. But the D-Backs want a shortstop. Arizona GM Kevin Towers reportedly covets Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons, but Atlanta doesn’t want to trade him. No deal there.

Regardless, the Braves’ offseason could get off to an excellent start just before baseball’s winter meetings and might get even more intriguing as the offseason progresses. Atlanta could very well be the team to watch next week (Dec. 3-6) in Nashville. 

 

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Would $6 Billion FOX Deal Allow Dodgers to Sign Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke?

When the Guggenheim Baseball Management ownership group (fronted by Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten and Mark Walter) bought the Los Angeles Dodgers in late March for $2 billion, the crown jewel of the package was believed to be the team’s TV broadcast rights.

How much money would those rights shovel into the Dodgers’ castle? The numbers began with hundreds of millions of dollars, but many analysts projected the team’s TV package to be worth billions. It appears those predictions were correct.

According to the Los Angeles Times‘ Bill Shaikin, Fox Sports could pay up to $6 billion to keep the Dodgers’ local TV rights. The deal would cover 25 years, averaging $240 million per year for a total of $6 billion or $280 million per year for $7 billion.

Walter was not kidding when he told the L.A. Times‘ Dylan Hernandez on Aug. 22, “We can take on significant money.” That may have been the understatement of the decade. What doesn’t seem possible with that kind of revenue pouring into the Dodgers’ vault? 

Besides visions of the Guggenheim Baseball Management partners diving into pools of cash and lighting cigars with $100 bills while sipping on the most expensive of cognacs, that amount of money presumably puts the Dodgers in play for not only the best free-agent talent, but multiple top-dollar players. 

The spending sprees that the Los Angeles Angels and Miami Marlins put on during last year’s winter meetings could conceivably look feeble compared to what the Dodgers might be capable of with their pockets overflowing with TV money. 

The Angels’ TV deal was supposed to be the game-changer in MLB, allowing them the resources to sign Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson last year, in addition to trading for Zack Greinke. But as we’ve seen so far this offseason, general manager Jerry Dipoto doesn’t seem to be working with an unlimited budget.

Pitchers Dan Haren and Ervin Santana have been trimmed from the roster along with outfielder Torii Hunter, as the Angels marshal their resources toward re-signing Greinke despite being saddled with the $42 million owed to Vernon Wells through 2014.

As Wendy Thurm outlined for FanGraphs, the Angels’ TV deal almost looks paltry in comparison to what the Dodgers will likely end up getting. The Angels’ agreement with Fox Sports West was for $2.5 billion over 17 years, averaging out to $147 million per season. 

It is important to note that the agreement is still being negotiated and thus not official yet. The Dodgers and Fox Sports could settle on a deal by the end of this week (Nov. 30), according to Shaikin‘s report. If the two sides don’t agree to a contract this week, the Dodgers could present Fox with a final offer next week. The network would then have 30 days to accept or reject the terms.

If negotiations were to eventually fall through with Fox, the Dodgers could then try to open discussions with Time Warner Cable SportsNet or launch their own channel, as the New York Yankees did with YES Network. But as Thurm‘s article details, the deal with Fox is the one that would yield galactic amounts of money. 

With that kind of cash at their disposal—especially if the Dodgers and Fox reach an agreement before the MLB winter meetings begin next week—just how many of the top free agents can the Dodgers be expected to corral during this offseason and in years to come?

The Dodgers are viewed as the favorite to sign Greinke, who’s looking for a six- to seven-year deal at $25 million per season that would make him the highest-paid pitcher in baseball.

For most every other team in baseball, that’s the kind of contract that would make a general manager evaluate just how much payroll can be devoted to one player (see above with the Angels). 

The general sentiment seems to be that the Dodgers won’t be beaten when it comes to money. GM Ned Colletti can afford to blow away any and all competition to get the player he and ownership want for the team.

However, if the Angels come close, perhaps Greinke will choose to stay with what’s familiar. Or maybe the Texas Rangers, playing in a somewhat smaller media market, will feel more comfortable to him. If that’s what Greinke chooses, he’ll have likely turned down an offer that seemingly couldn’t be refused.

But who’s to say the Dodgers would stop at Greinke? Why not go after the top position player available? Is Josh Hamilton not a realistic possibility for the Dodgers with all of the money they presumably have to spend? 

Of course, the situation is a little bit different with Hamilton. There’s really not a spot to play him. Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are penciled in as the Dodgers’ starting outfielders for next season. But with a gigantic payroll comes the luxury of signing players a team doesn’t necessarily need or who represent an upgrade over what’s currently on the roster.

There have been rumors of the Dodgers trading Ethier, who would likely interest any team looking for a power-hitting corner outfielder. Ethier‘s five-year, $85 million contract would probably be too expensive for several clubs, though it’s arguably fair-market value for a comparable player.

Perhaps the Dodgers would even eat some of the money on the contract if it meant clearing a spot for Hamilton. That’s another luxury that the Dodgers’ TV deal would allow. A smaller-market team couldn’t afford to pay someone to play someplace else. 

As ESPN’s Buster Olney reports, no favorite has emerged to sign Hamilton because teams aren’t willing to offer him more than a four-year contract. That could bring his asking price down, allowing teams like the Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles or Seattle Mariners to take a shot at the best free-agent hitter. 

But it also presents another opportunity for the Dodgers to steamroll the competition with a mega-offer that Hamilton’s other prospective suitors can’t or won’t match. 

If the rest of MLB is feeling a bit dizzy, it’s because the competitive landscape of the sport is tilting toward Chavez Ravine. All that TV money could throw off baseball’s balance of power significantly.

 

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The San Francisco Giants and 4 Dark-Horse Candidates to Land Josh Hamilton

The teams interested in signing free-agent outfielder Josh Hamilton are establishing themselves as the offseason hot stove begins warming up. 

Hamilton could return to the Texas Rangers. But if not, the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves are all names having been linked to the best available hitter on the open market.

But there are a few other clubs that could also join the bidding for Hamilton, especially if the market pushes down his reported desire for a seven-year, $175 million contract. These are teams that are either presumed to consider Hamilton unaffordable or would become even better with him in their lineup. 

Here are five teams that are dark horses in the race to sign the 31-year-old outfielder for next season. And for whichever team gets Hamilton, the competitive balance in either the American League or National League could tip in their favor. 

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Should Tim Lincecum Get Another Contract with SF Giants?

The Hot Stove is beginning to burn, and one log for the fire may be San Francisco Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum.

The Freaky Franchise really did have quite the bizarre campaign in 2012. His velocity was down, and his control was erratic.

Through it all, his consistency issues have him as possible trade bait headed into the 2012 offseason. It seems unthinkable, but the Giants could very well see their two-time Cy Young winner head to another team.

His issues may see him take a pay cut, but his past accomplishments may very well keep him in the Bay Area. Let’s debate both sides.

Join MLB Lead Writer Ian Casselberry and MLB Contributor Gabe Zaldivar as they dissect one of the bigger conundrums facing the World Series champs.

As always, we look forward to hearing your side of the argument in the comments section below.

 

Follow Ian on Twitter @iancass

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Be sure to sound off and let us know what you think in the comments below. If you like what you see, click here for more from Bleacher Report Productions. 

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Will $400-500 Million YES Network Sale Bring Back Yankees’ Blank-Check Payroll?

New York Yankees principal owner Hal Steinbrenner has publicly stated his intention to get the team’s payroll under the $189 million luxury tax threshold for 2014. He’s all but declared it a mandate.

“I’m looking at it as a goal, but my goals are normally considered a requirement,” Steinbrenner said to reporters, including The New York Times‘ David Waldstein in March.

“Is it a requirement with baseball that we be at 189? No, it’s not a requirement. But that is going to be the luxury tax threshold, and that’s where I want to be.”

All right, but will Steinbrenner be singing the same tune if $500 million suddenly drops into his lap? According to ESPN’s Darren Rovell, that’s what the Yankees could receive from the sale of 49 percent of the YES Network to News Corp. for extending the team’s broadcast rights with the channel for another 20 years. 

There’s more to the story than this development, as ESPN New York’s Wallace Matthews reports. First and foremost, this is being seen in some circles as a precursor to News Corp. (the parent company of Fox) eventually buying the Yankees from the Steinbrenner family. 

But how this affects the baseball side of the operation is the more compelling story. 

Clearly, the Steinbrenner scion intends to run the Yankees as a business, calling himself “a finance geek” when speaking with The New York Times and saying that budgets and balance sheets matter to him. 

That’s quite a different approach than his father George Steinbrenner took when he was in charge of the team. Much like the Los Angeles Dodgers now, the Yankees seemingly had no regard for a budget when George ran the team. All he cared about was putting together the best team in baseball year after year, no matter the cost. 

But local television contracts have significantly changed the competitive balance in MLB. Along with the Dodgers, the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels are major players for top talent thanks to their massive multimillion, and perhaps billion, dollar TV deals.

The Yankees are still the big dog, with YES Network worth $3 billion. But plenty of other teams are now barking loud as well. 

The gap between the Yankees and their competitors is even smaller when Hal Steinbrenner and general manager Brian Cashman choose to stay under luxury tax thresholds rather than flex their considerable financial muscle for an advantage. 

As Matthews points out in his article, the Yankees may have a $189 million payroll to work with on paper, but Cashman is really working with something closer to $75 million because of $114 million tied up by six players. Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia likely won’t give the Yanks good value toward the end of their contracts either. 

Consequently, the Yankees have apparently been bargain shopping thus far into the offseason. Outfielder Nick Swisher won’t be re-signed and the team reportedly intends to fill his position with a platoon arrangement.

Torii Hunter or Melky Cabrera would have fit nicely in right field, but the Yankees don’t want to sign anyone to more than a one-year contract right now.

That could leave the Yankees to re-sign Raul Ibanez to be the left side of a platoon with someone like Jonny Gomes taking the right side. Maybe Andruw Jones could be brought back to bat against left-handed pitching too. 

That’s not exactly inspiring, especially to a demanding fanbase that showed its dissatisfaction by leaving many seats empty during playoff games at Yankee Stadium. Yankees fans want their team to do something more than bring back Hiroki Kuroda and sign a platoon outfielder or two.

Oh, this team also needs a catcher. 

Can the Yankees sell this to their fans when they’ll receive $270 million from News Corp. by selling 49 percent of YES Network? That doesn’t even include the aforementioned $400 million to $500 million that will come from extending the channel’s rights to game broadcasts. 

The reason the Yankees are so concerned about the luxury tax is that they’ll be a “four-time offender.” Under those circumstances, as explained by the Philadelphia Inquirer‘s Matt Gelb, the amount of money that exceeds the $189 million threshold will be taxed 50 percent. 

But with the money derived from the YES Network sale, don’t the Yankees have the money to cover whatever penalty they would incur from the luxury tax? 

That might not be the financially responsible way to run the team, which is how Steinbrenner and Cashman are trying to do business. But it’s likely how Yankees fans feel on the matter. 

With the additional revenues, could the team sign Mike Napoli to be its catcher? Anibal Sanchez would fit nicely in the starting rotation. Would Rafael Soriano return to the bullpen? What about Josh Hamilton as the left fielder? Hasn’t that typically been the Yankees’ move? 

Suffering a four-game sweep in the ALCS to the Detroit Tigers would seemingly increase the urgency to bring in some new talent and keep the Yankees a level above the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East. As recently as 2009, the team would have taken major steps to buy pieces for a World Series contender.

The Yankees’ deal with News Corp. would appear to enable a return to those free-spending days that blew away the competition. But will the team’s current regime take that approach?

 

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Should the Philadelphia Phillies Trade Pitching to Fix Other Major Holes?

The Philadelphia Phillies have quite a few holes to fill on their roster before next season.

General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is looking for two outfielders—one of whom should be a center fielder, and probably a right-handed bat. The Phillies also need a third baseman and could use another reliever for their bullpen.

Amaro could address all of those needs on the free-agent market. Outfielders like Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton would fit well in the Philadelphia lineup. Kevin Youkilis would give the Phillies a suitable third baseman. And plenty of relievers are available to help shore up the corps of middle relievers. 

But that would get expensive. Big spending doesn’t fit into Amaro’s current plan, as he’s been quite public about getting the Phillies’ payroll underneath the $178 million luxury-tax threshold for 2013. Presumably, he wants the team under the $189 million luxury-tax limit for 2014 as well. 

To patch up every hole on his roster without incurring MLB‘s luxury tax, Amaro will probably have to make some trades to get what he needs. That would almost surely mean tapping into his team’s greatest strength: starting pitching. 

But does Amaro really want to do that? The trio of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels atop the Phillies rotation is what sets them apart from their NL East rivals. Starting pitching will likely be what pushes Philadelphia back into playoff and division-title contention next season. 

Though that part of the team is a strength, is there enough depth to use in trade? If the Phillies weaken their starting rotation yet bolster other parts of the roster, does that ultimately even out? Or would Amaro be making a mistake by undercutting the advantage he has over division and league rivals? 

The most tradeable commodity Amaro has is left-hander Cliff Lee. Plenty of teams checked in on him around the trade deadline this year, but it was never really clear whether or not the Phillies were looking to deal him away.

Amaro certainly had an opportunity to trade Lee to the Los Angeles Dodgers in early August. The Phillies put Lee on waivers, and the Dodgers won the claim for him.

Philadelphia could have either tried to work out a trade, though the Dodgers likely wouldn’t have given up much because they would have taken on up to $102.5 million remaining on Lee’s contract. Amaro could have also decided to just let Lee go on waivers, dumping his salary without getting anything in return. 

Instead, the Phillies held on to Lee. Perhaps Amaro never had an intention of trading Lee and wanted him to be a part of their rotation for 2013 and beyond. Or the Philadelphia GM figured he could find a far better deal with more time—and more teams—to negotiate with during the offseason. 

However, does that deal really exist?

Perhaps a trade with the Texas Rangers, built around third-base prospect Mike Olt and pitcher Martin Perez, would work for the Phillies. Then Amaro could get his outfielders in free agency. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks could be another possibility, with Justin Upton going to the Phillies and taking one of those corner outfield openings. But D-Backs owner Ken Kendrick was rather vocal about not wanting a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 years old who’s owed up to $100 million. 

Could the Colorado Rockies present another option? The Atlanta Braves have shown interest in center fielder Dexter Fowler. Why couldn’t the Phillies get in that mix, especially with the Rockies reportedly seeking pitching in return? The Braves probably have better arms to offer, however. 

Of course, the Dodgers are still out there. But does GM Ned Colletti really have anything the Phillies are looking for in return?

He dealt two of his best pitching prospects—Allen Webster and Nathan Eovaldi—in trades for Adrian Gonzalez (and others) and Hanley Ramirez. Would Colletti really want to trade any others when he can sign Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez or Ryu Hyun-jin? Andre Ethier could be included, but do the Phillies want another left-handed bat? 

The best argument for trading Lee to the Dodgers could be shedding his salary and using his $25 million salary for this season (and the next two, plus a team option) to help fill those holes in the outfield and at third base. 

Amaro also has some pitching prospects he could use in a deal. Trevor May, Jesse Biddle and Jonathan Pettibone are among the Phillies’ top four prospects, according to Baseball America. Could those young arms—along with pitchers with major league experience, like Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick—be used to get someone like Chase Headley from the San Diego Padres

But the Phillies need arms for the back end of their starting rotation as well. If Amaro deals away pitchers who could be the team’s fourth and fifth starters, who fills those roles next season? Isn’t trading talent for established veterans what got the Phillies into their current predicament?

Are such trades worth doing again if it gets Philadelphia back into playoff contention? Is dealing off some of the future the price that has to be paid for getting an outfielder or third baseman who could be a cornerstone player for years to come? 

What looks like a surplus can become a weakness quickly. The Phillies rotation doesn’t look nearly as imposing or competitive with the Braves or Washington Nationals in the NL East if they break up the Halladay-Lee-Hamels triumvirate. Amaro arguably has more holes to fill if he trades starting pitching away too.

Obviously, Amaro should explore every option available. But he is in the fortunate position of being able to take care of his team’s needs on the free-agent market this winter. The question is how much that might cost the Phillies. 

Another question might be how valuable a pitching staff is if the lineup can’t score any runs to help the team win. That’s the dilemma the Phillies and Amaro face this winter. 

 

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Breaking Down Hiroki Kuroda’s Potential Impact on His Top 5 Free-Agent Suitors

Free-agent pitchers Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez have gotten the big headlines this offseason. They’re seen as the big prizes on the open market and reportedly also have the largest financial demands.

However, 37-year-old Hiroki Kuroda might actually be in the most demand among MLB playoff contenders.

Not only is he a proven commodity, coming off a strong season with the New York Yankees, but he’s seeking a one- to two-year contract for an annual salary that would cost far less than what Greinke and Sanchez are seeking. 

What sort of impact would Kuroda have with each of the teams that have been attached to him in baseball’s hot stove season? Where would he be the best fit? Here’s a look at each of his potential destinations. 

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Analyzing the Shock Wave Bud Selig Nixing Jays-Marlins Blockbuster Would Cause

So now Bud Selig wants to expand replay in MLB.

As reported by USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale on Thursday (Nov. 15), baseball’s commissioner announced that he will review the blockbuster trade between the Miami Marlins and Toronto Blue Jays.

Presumably, Selig will try to determine if anything unethical took place with this deal in an attempt to appease Marlins fans outraged by owner Jeffrey Loria’s latest salary dump. Virtually every Marlins player worth watching—including Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle, who signed with the team as free agents—was sent to Toronto in the trade. 

The weapon that Marlins fans—and fans throughout baseball—hope that Selig will use is the “best interests of baseball” clause that gives the commissioner power to make whatever changes are deemed necessary to maintain competitive integrity in MLB.

But can the commish really hit the reset button on this trade? 

Selig has used those “best interests” powers in recent years to influence the sales of the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Dodgers. But when it comes to how individual owners run their teams, he’s let each franchise conduct its own business.

“The notion of an almighty commissioner directing the business of baseball is incorrect,” he said to The New York Times in 1994. 

Given his actions with the aforementioned ownership situations, it’s clear that Selig’s view has changed since then. Steering the Houston Astros and new owner Jim Crane to move to the American League—and making the move a condition for Crane buying the team—also seems to indicate that Selig is willing to use those “best interests” powers to facilitate what MLB needs to be done.

However, stepping in to tell a team how it should put together a roster and spend its money is a different circumstance. This is where Selig has appeared to draw the line. 

But the Marlins’ situation has apparently raised the commissioner’s eyebrow. Building a new ballpark with local taxpayer funds, paying big money for top free agents and hiring a star manager certainly conveyed the impression that this was a new era for baseball in South Beach.

Instead, Loria showed it was business as usual with the Marlins. The team performed far below expectations and by midseason, players like Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez were traded away for prospects. When Miami finished the season last in the NL East with 69 wins, Loria decided to pull the plug on his baseball revival and had his most expensive players dealt away to Toronto.

That left Marlins fans feeling jilted and suckered for funding Loria’s charade and believing that the team was serious about putting together a perennial contender that would compete with the other top teams in MLB.

“I am aware of the anger,” Selig said to Nightengale. “I am. I’m also aware that in Toronto they’re very happy.”

There’s the dilemma for Selig.

The Blue Jays made a great trade to better themselves and assemble an AL East contender with this trade. And though it appeared unseemly to dump off its most expensive players, the Marlins received excellent prospects in return. It’s just that the team running a fire sale has no benefit of the doubt with baseball fans.

This was actually a good baseball trade. According to MLB.com’s Paul Hagen, Selig consulted two independent baseball people who informed him that Miami “in terms of young players, did very well.”

How can Selig reverse a trade under those circumstances? A gesture of good faith to the city of Miami and its fans would be a slap in the face to the people of Toronto and the Blue Jays organization? Then the commissioner has to placate another community and fanbase. Where does the cycle end?

This isn’t like Oakland Athletics owner Charlie Finley literally trying to sell Vida Blue, Joe Rudi and Rollie Fingers off for nothing but money in 1976. The commissioner at the time, Bowie Kuhn, stepped in and killed the transactions, invoking his “best interests” powers. 

Kuhn might have vetoed this Marlins-Blue Jays trade, too. And he almost certainly wouldn’t have cared for Loria’s way of doing business.

Another comparable situation is NBA commissioner David Stern rejecting the trade of Chris Paul from the New Orleans Hornets to the Los Angeles Lakers. But one key difference in that scenario is that the league owned the Hornets and didn’t want to see its best player used to help the Lakers continue its dominance. Additionally, the belief was that trading Paul could hurt attendance and the value of the franchise.

Selig utilizes his authority differently, ostensibly attempting not to influence competitive integrity. Finley claimed he needed the money that would have come from selling Blue, Rudi and Fingers to help compete financially. Selig likely would have encouraged him to sell his team. 

Loria isn’t crying poverty. He doesn’t like that he spent so much money for a last-place team and tried to recoup his expense. When asked by CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman if he would sell the team, Loria called that “stupidity.”

While the way Loria runs the Marlins is unsatisfactory to virtually everyone who follows or is involved in baseball, he’s not using the team as a personal bank account, like Frank McCourt did with the Dodgers. Loria hasn’t plunged the team into bankruptcy. He just built a new ballpark for his team. Business is going well. 

To veto this trade would set a terrible precedent for MLB. Would teams no longer have the right to dump off big contracts to create payroll flexibility or financial profitability? If Selig killed the Marlins-Blue Jays deal, shouldn’t he have to go back and squash the Dodgers-Red Sox trade in which Boston unloaded $260 million of salary? 

Clubs with bad records and high-priced veterans consistently trade those players to playoff contenders and hopefuls for prospects as a way of rebuilding with young, cheaper talent. The Marlins arguably did the same thing here, though on an obviously much larger scale. 

In such trades, both teams are presumably trying to get better, just on different timetables. 

This is why Selig drew the line that he did. The slope gets too slippery. Where would it end? Overturning the Marlins-Blue Jays trade would fundamentally change the way baseball teams run themselves. That’s why he can’t—and won’t—do it.

 

Follow @iancass on Twitter.

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Will Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson or Mark Buehrle Have Biggest Impact in Huge Trade?

The Toronto Blue Jays will reportedly receive a major influx of new talent from their blockbuster deal with the Miami Marlins on Tuesday. 

According to Fox Sports, shortstop Jose Reyes, catcher John Buck, utilityman Emilio Bonifacio and starting pitchers Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle are going north of the border.

Heading south to Miami are shortstop Yunel Escobar, infielder Adeiny Hechavarria, pitcher Henderson Alvarez and catcher Jeff Mathis, along with minor league pitchers Justin Nicolino and Anthony DeSclafani and outfielder Jake Marisnick. 

But the objectives for each team in this trade are completely different. One is loading up for a division title and playoff run while the other is going into rebuilding mode. The Blue Jays making a run in the AL East is much more exciting, however, so let’s look at how this affects their chances. Which of the players Toronto received will make the most difference?

Reyes is certainly an upgrade at shortstop. Not only is he a better hitter and on-base threat than Escobar, but he brings far more speed to the Blue Jays lineup. Reyes notched 40 stolen bases to Escobar’s five this season. Between him and Rajai Davis, it could get speedy on the basepaths in Toronto. 

However, Escobar is a better defensive shortstop, according to FanGraphs’ Ultimate Zone Rating. Will Reyes be better or worse on the Rogers Centre artificial turf? Ground balls will get to him faster now. 

Buehrle will be a better second or third starter than the Blue Jays had this year. Though his record was 13-13, that was due to him playing for a Marlins team that only won 69 games and finished last in the NL East. His 3.74 ERA was close to his career average. The left-hander is also accustomed to pitching in the American League, which should appeal to Toronto. 

However, what the Blue Jays lacked most this season—and haven’t had since Roy Halladay was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies in 2009—is an ace-level No. 1 starter at the top of its rotation. Johnson gives Toronto that kind of pitcher. 

Fans of Brandon Morrow might disagree with that. He’s certainly a spectacular talent with major strikeout stuff.

Though Morrow had a 2.96 ERA this year, he made only 21 starts due to an oblique injury. He hasn’t had that one season where it all comes together for him. But 2012 was only his third full season as a starting pitcher and he has two years left on his contract to break through. 

But Johnson has already established his credentials as a major league ace. In 2010, he led the NL with a 2.30 ERA in 28 starts. He won 15 games the previous season. He’s capable of throwing 200 innings—having done so once in his career—and likely has a 200-strikeout season in him as well. 

Johnson struggled this season while returning from shoulder surgery. In April, his ERA was 5.34. He finished the first half with a 5-5 record and 4.06 ERA. But he recovered nicely in the second half, posting a 3.53 ERA. In September, Johnson’s ERA was 2.91 in five starts with 29 strikeouts in 34 innings.

While Johnson’s 8-14 record may not look terribly impressive, the same defense applies to him as it did with Buehrle. The Marlins were a terrible team this season (which is probably a big reason they’re filleting themselves with yet another fire sale).

Johnson also received the worst run support among qualified starting pitchers, according to ESPN.com, getting 3.13 runs per start.

Run support shouldn’t be a problem for Johnson in Toronto, however. The Blue Jays scored 716 runs this season, finishing 7th out of 14 AL teams. But that was with home run champion Jose Bautista playing only 92 games due to a wrist injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. 

Toronto also features Edwin Encarnacion coming off a 42-homer, 110-RBI season. Colby Rasmus slugged 23 homers with 75 RBI. And if Bautista comes back healthy next year, he will likely put up another 40 home runs and 100 RBI. 

It’s not a coincidence that Johnson was the first player named as being traded to the Blue Jays in initial reports. Reyes and Buehrle might be flashier names because of their big free-agent contracts worth a combined $174 million. But it’s the ace that matters the most.

Johnson was the Marlins player most in demand at the trade deadline and had a team like the Texas Rangers acquired him, perhaps they would have won the AL West and returned to the World Series. 

With the big 28-year-old right-hander at the top of their rotation, the Blue Jays are now a team to fear in the AL East. The Rays with David Price and Yankees with CC Sabathia can boast of having better No. 1 starters. But Johnson is now the top right-hander in the division. 

Toronto might have the AL East’s best starting trio in its rotation with Johnson, Buehrle and Morrow. With Ricky Romero pushed to the fourth spot and perhaps J.A. Happ holding down the fifth starter role, this looks like a strong pitching quintet, one of the best in MLB.

If pitching was the difference in the Blue Jays competing in the AL East, general manager Alex Anthopoulos has now addressed that concern in a major way. 

 

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