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7 Predictions for the Major League Baseball GM Meetings

Major League Baseball’s general manager meetings begin Wednesday (Nov. 7) in Indian Wells, Calif., and go through Friday. 

What will happen at these GM meetings? Historically, not much often happens when MLB front-office executives get together for their annual pow-wow. (Though as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reminds us, the Houston Astros signed Carlos Lee to a a six-year, $100 million contract during the 2006 GM meetings.) 

MLB doesn’t even list the GM meetings on its calendar of “important dates,” which might tell you something about their perceived importance.

If anything, this event is a precursor to MLB’s winter meetings, which take place in Nashville from Dec. 3 to Dec. 6. The groundwork for the big trades and signings that will happen in December could very well be established in November. 

But that doesn’t mean no baseball news of significance will come out of Southern California during the following three days. Here are seven things that could happen while MLB’s general managers are meeting up with each other. 

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Should the New York Mets Trade R.A. Dickey This Offseason at Peak Value?

The offseason priority for the New York Mets and general manager Sandy Alderson is signing third baseman David Wright and pitcher R.A. Dickey to long-term contract extensions beyond their options for 2013.

For Wright, it’s about keeping the face of the franchise in a Mets uniform for the rest of his career. Every team needs a cornerstone player. Fans can attach their hopes and rooting interests to such a figure. Front offices can build a roster around that kind of talent.

Does Dickey fit that profile for the Mets? The 38-year-old knuckleballer is undoubtedly a popular player after posting a 20-6 record and 2.73 record in 2012. Those numbers are even more impressive considering that the Mets won only 74 games this season and finished fourth in the NL East.

But to paraphrase Branch Rickey’s famous quote to Ralph Kiner, the Mets finished in fourth place with Dickey, and they can finish in fourth without him. (This might not quite hold up since Dickey may have been the one thing that kept the Mets out of last place.)

So would Alderson actually be better off trading a pitcher that would be in high demand throughout MLB? Dickey’s option for 2013 is worth $5 million. Plenty of teams would be eager to make a deal for a 20-game winner who will cost that much next season.

According to the New York Daily News‘ Andy Martino, as many as 12 clubs would show interest in Dickey if the Mets put him on the trade block.

Teams might not be willing to give up as much for a player who can be a free agent after the season, however. Getting full value in a trade might depend on whether or not Dickey signs a contract with his new employer. Additionally, Martino spoke to one MLB executive who expressed concern about having a catcher who could probably handle Dickey’s knuckleball.

The Mets would presumably get a prospect or two in return to stock their minor league system, perhaps a young arm that could join Jonathon Niese, Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler in the rotation of the future.

Meanwhile, Dickey’s 2013 salary—and the value of his future contract—could be put toward upgrading the team’s outfield, bullpen and/or catcher.

How much of a raise could Dickey get over $5 million per season in a multi-year extension? FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris looked at starting pitchers Dickey compares to in terms of age and statistics and determined that he is worth $10 million per year on the open market.

Is that a salary the Mets are prepared to pay over the next two or three years? How much of a commitment will the team want to make to a 38-year-old pitcher, even if throwing a knuckleball puts less wear and tear on his arm?

A lowball offer risks alienating Dickey and would turn off fans skeptical of the Mets’ interest in putting together a playoff contender. If Alderson has doubts about Dickey’s ability to maintain his performance over a two- to three-year span, he should definitely deal him while his value will never be higher.

However, there’s nothing to suggest that Dickey is a one-year fluke. The 20-6 record is certainly a career-best, but he pitched in 60 games during his previous two seasons with the Mets. In 2010, his ERA was 2.84. Last season, it was 3.28.

The one question mark might be Dickey’s strikeout numbers. He led the National League with 230 strikeouts this season, averaging 8.9 K’s per nine innings. That’s a huge jump from 2011, when Dickey racked up 134 strikeouts in 208.2 innings (a rate of 5.8 K’s per nine). Can he continue to strike out batters with that frequency?

It’s certainly possible that 2012 was the year it just all came together for Dickey. After years of working with the knuckleball, he finally mastered it.

Not only was he able to control the pitch in terms of keeping it in the strike zone, but he was also able to change speeds. According to the New York Times, the pitch varied from 54 mph to 83 mph. A “hard” knuckleball—or an “angry knuckleball,” as Dickey calls it—is something opposing batters have rarely seen. That translated into Dickey’s breakout success.

But these are all baseball reasons to keep Dickey. With the Mets, it’s about more than what happens on the field.

Despite the team’s performance this year, fans bought in when the Mets were in the NL East race during the first half of the season. After falling out of contention, Dickey was the only reason many bothered to watch the Mets.

People became captivated by Dickey’s life story, the journey of a late bloomer who had every reason to give up but finally persevered after years of following his dream. It’s the kind of story we all love to hear—if for no other reason than we hope a similar payoff awaits us in our lives.

Mets fans followed Dickey’s triumphant rise over the past three seasons. Ending the story by trading him to another team would be quite a slap in the face to those who supported the Mets throughout their financial difficulties and steady slide down the NL East standings.

But if Alderson thinks he can make the Mets better by trading Dickey, he’ll surely take the public relations hit and accept handshakes later when his team develops into a contender again.

Yet keeping Dickey around could buy some time with fans as they try to assemble a competitive team. I realize that’s a somewhat cynical view. Hopefully, Alderson and owner Fred Wilpon have greater ambitions in mind.

This might be one instance where the better move for the Mets might be to go with popular opinion. Teams have to give fans something to root for, a reason to support the team and come to the ballpark.

Well, at least they should.

 

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Free Agency: 7 Impact Players Who Will Sign Rapidly This Offseason

Once free agency begins in MLB, someone has to sign first.

The top players available will likely sit back and wait for the best offer as suitors fight it out in a bidding war. But for those who know exactly what they want to do and find a willing partner early in the process, there’s no sense in waiting. Get that contract and go on with the rest of your offseason. 

Those players who employ Scott Boras as their agent will almost certainly wait longer, even after baseball’s winter meetings, to get the offer they want. So free agents like Michael Bourn and Rafael Soriano (who’s expected to opt out of his contract with the New York Yankees) won’t sign with a team immediately.  

However, that leaves an open pool for the rest of the 2013 free-agency class to jump into. Some of them won’t wait, as they’ll receive offers very soon after the bidding can officially begin and won’t see a need to shop around for anything better.

Here are seven significant free agents who could sign with their current teams or new clubs quickly after the open market bidding begins.

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2012 World Series: Why Bruce Bochy Is Now a Surefire Hall of Fame Manager

Winning two World Series titles puts San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy in some impressive company. 

In MLB history, 22 managers have won at least two championships. As you would expect, some of them are among baseball’s all-time greats. 

Casey Stengel and Joe McCarthy top the list with seven, Connie Mack has five and Joe Torre and Walter Alston have four apiece. Next up are Sparky Anderson, Miller Huggins, John McGraw and Tony La Russa, who all have three series victories in the Fall Classic. 

Bochy certainly has an opportunity to win another World Series—perhaps as soon as next year. At 57 years old, he presumably will manage for many seasons to come. Staying in the dugout is surely a much easier decision while he’s at the top of his game, leading one of the best franchises in the league and a perennial contender. 

However, what if Bochy decided to call it a career right now after 18 seasons as a major league skipper? As his résumé stands right now, would he be considered a Hall of Fame manager? Does two championships make that automatic? 

Unfortunately for Bochy, the answer is no. 

Cito Gaston won two championships with the Toronto Blue Jays. Is anyone suggesting him for induction into Cooperstown? Others with a pair of titles but not in the Hall of Fame include Ralph Houk and Tom Kelly. Terry Francona is another, though his career isn’t over yet.

But making Bochy’s career all about how many World Series he has won is reductive. His entire body of work has to be judged. Would Bochy be considered a Hall of Famer if he hadn’t won any championships?

Let’s take a look at what else he accomplished in his 18-year managerial career. 

Bochy has 1,454 wins as a major league manager. That total currently ranks him No. 23 all-time. He’s 546 victories away from 2,000, which is the managerial equivalent of 3,000 hits or 600 home runs for a hitter and 300 wins for a pitcher.

Ten managers in the history of MLB have won 2,000 games. Becoming No. 11 would put Bochy in an exclusive club. The only other two active managers who arguably have a shot at 2,000 wins are two skippers Bochy just defeated in the postseason: the Detroit Tigers‘ Jim Leyland and Dusty Baker of the Cincinnati Reds.

If you wanted to nitpick, you could say that Bochy would have the lowest winning percentage (.502) of those 10 managers except for Connie Mack. But if he keeps winning the way he has—and there’s no reason to think he won’t—that percentage will improve. And really, is anyone going to be talking about Bochy’s winning percentage if he has 2,000 wins?

Bochy has also won six division titles—four with the San Diego Padres and two with the Giants and three National League pennants. That’s an impressive list of accomplishments, and it should be enough to Bochy into the Hall of Fame even if he doesn’t get 2,000 wins. 

However, Bochy is very likely to reach that milestone. As Giants manager, he has averaged 84 wins per season. Over his career, he has averaged 81 victories per year. If he were to keep up that pace, it would take Bochy another seven seasons to get to 2,000.

But during the three seasons in which the Giants have won two championships and finished second in the NL West, Bochy has averaged 91 wins per season. If San Francisco continues to play at its current level of performance, Bochy could get to 2,000 in six years. 

Would Bochy want to manage that much longer? He’s already put in 18 years, and if he gets that third championship, perhaps he’ll conclude that there’s not much more he can accomplish. This could of course depend on whether or not he feels he has a team that could win again.

Bochy is under contract for next season with an option for 2014. But given his success, he will probably be the Giants manager as long as he wants to be.

Like anyone else in any other profession, Bochy probably has other things he wants to do with his life. But given that he hasn’t his made interests outside of baseball known to the public—if he has, please let us know in the comments—perhaps his focus on baseball is all-encompassing. 

In that case, maybe Bochy does want to stay in baseball for as long as possible, and as the 2,000-win milestone gets closer, he’ll want to reach that mountaintop. 

However, if he is thinking about his legacy, he has nothing to worry about. The man is already a Hall of Fame manager. He could absolutely cement that legacy with another World Series title—an accomplishment that seems quite attainable. But even without a third championship, he’s proven himself to be one of the best managers in recent memory. 

 

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6 Free Agents, Trades Yankees Can Grab If Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte Retire

The New York Yankees were counting on having Mariano Rivera back as their closer next season. 

That belief was based on Rivera’s own words after he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee while shagging fly balls during batting practice in Kansas City on May 3. 

“I’m coming back,” Rivera said to reporters, including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. “Write it down in big letters. I’m not going down like this. God willing and given the strength, I’m coming back.”

But apparently, MLB’s all-time saves leader has been having some second thoughts during his six months off due to injury. As ESPN New York’s Andrew Marchand reported, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told the press that Rivera informed the team that he doesn’t know if he’ll come back next season or retire. 

If Rivera decides not to come back, that obviously changes the Yankees’ offseason plans. Despite coming back from a serious knee injury, the prevailing thought was that he would be the team’s closer next year at the age of 43. 

With his uncertainty, Rivera joins another 40-year-old pitcher, Andy Pettitte, in limbo as the Yankees begin to prepare for next season. If both longtime veterans decide to call it career, how will the team replace them? 

Here are six suggestions for trades or free-agent signings the Yankees could make to fill those two openings on their roster. 

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5 Free Agents, Trades the Yankees Should Pursue to Give the Team Big Facelift

Are heads going to roll in the Bronx after the New York Yankees not only didn’t make it to the World Series, but were demolished in a four-game ALCS sweep by the Detroit Tigers?

That certainly seems to be the expectation. Losing in the playoffs is one thing, but virtually every prominent offensive player—and the Yankees have many of them—put up a feeble effort at the plate, making an already formidable Tigers pitching staff look unstoppable. (Maybe they are unstoppable.)

So, how are the Yankees going to respond?

Will principal owner Hal Steinbrenner and general manager Brian Cashman oversee a free-agent spending spree as in 2008, when the team didn’t even make the playoffs? Will Cashman get on the phone with his fellow GMs and try to make several trades? Or will we ultimately see much the same roster as the Yanks had this year? 

The status quo seems unlikely given the embarrassing results of the ALCS. But an overhaul probably isn’t realistic either, considering the salaries of some of the players who Yankees fans would like to see shipped out of town. 

But Cashman can’t bring back the same team next year. Changes have to made, if for no other reason than to make the roster younger and more athletic than the one that seemed to be fossilizing in the postseason. 

Here are five signings or trades that the Yankees could make before next season. The Yanks won’t make all of these moves during the offseason, but one or two of them could tweak the roster as needed.

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Why Baseball Fans Should Be Rooting for a Giants vs. Tigers World Series

The four remaining teams in the MLB playoffs present some intriguing potential matchups for the 2012 World Series.

Among the St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, there’s not a surprise upstart to root for. All four clubs were generally expected to win their divisions or make the playoffs. 

Any underdog ambitions for the postseason disappeared when the Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics were eliminated during the divisional series round. (Perhaps the Washington Nationals could be included in that as well, since they were new blood for the playoffs. But they finished with the best record in the National League—not very underdog there.) 

So which of the four remaining teams would make the best pairing for the World Series?

The Cardinals and Yankees would pit two classic MLB franchises against one another. The two teams have won more World Series championships than any other clubs. The Yankees have 27 championships and the Cardinals are next on the list with 11. Both have faced each other five times in the World Series, with the Cards winning three them. 

The Yankees and Giants would be a clash between the east and west coast, but there’s also plenty of New York history there. The teams are former crosstown rivals and clashed seven times in the World Series. The Yankees won five of those matchups.

A Cardinals-Tigers finale would be a rematch of the 2006 Fall Classic, during which the underdog Cards surprised the Tigers by winning in five games. Of course, the two teams also faced each other in the ’68 World Series, with the Tigers rallying from a 3-1 series deficit to win in seven. 

Each of those three would make for an enticing World Series. But how about a pairing that we’ve never seen before in October? A Fall Classic between the Giants and Tigers would make for the best championship matchup.

First of all, a Giants vs. Tigers series would provide a quintessential battle between strong pitching and powerful hitting. Framing the matchup as such might be somewhat inaccurate, however.

Until Ryan Vogelsong‘s one-run, seven-inning effort in Monday’s Game 2 of the NLCS, San Francisco’s starting pitching hadn’t been the strength it’s portrayed as. Neither has the Tigers’ hitting prowess, despite the presence of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder in their lineup.

But Cabrera is hitting .286 and Detroit has averaged nearly four runs a game during the postseason, so maybe this narrative fits them better. Just remember Prince Fielder and his .200 batting average when telling that story. 

Regardless of whether current numbers align with the preferred storyline, there would still be some extremely compelling pitcher vs. batter confrontations. Matt Cain vs. Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera and Fielder vs. Sergio Romo. Would Vogelsong be able to shut the Tigers down, as he did with the Cardinals and Reds? 

That would go the other way, as well. What about Justin Verlander vs. Buster Posey? How would Doug Fister fare against Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Hunter Pence? Could a struggling Tigers bullpen keep the Giants from rallying or pouring it on in later innings? 

By the way, the previous two paragraphs show the star power that we’d have in this series. The likely Most Valuable Players in the American and National Leagues would be playing each other. Both teams feature Cy Young Award candidates as well.

Bruce Bochy and Jim Leyland are also both considered among the top managers in MLB, and each skipper popular with the media, which would make for a good battle of wits and strategy. The pregame managers’ press conferences would surely be a highlight before each game. 

The Giants and Tigers playing each other would also present an intriguing contrast between cities.

San Francisco is generally considered one of the great, cosmopolitan cities in the United States, with notable landmarks such as the Golden Gate Bridge and Transamerica Pyramid.

Detroit, whether it’s accurate or not, is depicted as a crumbling Rust Belt city with no iconic structures other than perhaps the Renaissance Center. 

Another general stereotype of San Francisco is the portrayal of a tech-savvy, hipster population living the modern city lifestyle that’s often held up as the ideal in culture and media. Detroit’s populace is contrarily conveyed as blue collar, perhaps grizzled by the colder weather and harsh economic climate. 

Again, neither classification is entirely accurate. But it’s easy to reduce the two cities and their residents in such a manner. 

Would the Tigers be perceived as an underdog in a World Series with the Giants? Detroit is six years removed from its last Fall Classic, and is likely familiar with MLB playoff fans from last year’s postseason. But the Tigers haven’t won it all since 1984. 

Meanwhile, the Giants were in the postseason just two years ago and finished it off with an upset of the Texas Rangers for the World Series championship. 

Detroit sports fans love to play the disrespect card and carry a chip on their shoulder over how their teams and region are portrayed by the national media and fandom. Call it the Midwestern Inferiority Complex.

But what if the Tigers win national favor during the World Series? They do have the look of an underdog to them. And, of course, there’s no more of an underdog city than Detroit. 

What a Giants-Tigers World Series might lack in tradition and history, it makes up for with plenty of intriguing storylines , subplots and star power. It’s the matchup we should all be rooting for… unless you’re a fan of the Cardinals or Yankees, naturally. 

 

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Reds vs. Giants Game 3: Why the Giants Are Now Set Up to Steal the Series

With a 2-0 series lead following two dominant wins at AT&T Park, the Cincinnati Reds looked like a good bet to close out their NLDS with the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday evening.

After pounding out 22 hits in the first two games of this series, the Reds lineup only managed four hits and one run in Game 3 against Ryan Vogelsong and the Giants’ four best relievers. Obviously, San Francisco’s pitching—which has always been its strength—deserves credit for shutting down Cincinnati’s batters, but the Reds have to be surprised at how ineffective their bats were.

After looking all but beaten when Cincinnati steamrolled them in the first two games of the NLDS, the Giants have some life again. Even the Reds likely didn’t expect to build a 2-0 series lead so decisively when they had to play two games on the road.

But now we have a playoff series. And though the Reds still hold a 2-1 lead in this NLDS, they’ve seen how formidable the Giants pitching can be. With Cincinnati’s Game 4 starting pitcher uncertain, the team can’t feel as confident about this series as it did before Game 3. That’s created an opportunity for the Giants, one that could allow them to steal the next two games and a NLDS victory. 

 

Reds Know They Blew One

Cincinnati won’t get better better pitching than it received in Game 3. Homer Bailey didn’t allow a hit in his first five innings. In seven innings overall, he only gave up one hit. 

Sean Marshall and Aroldis Chapman each followed up with a hitless inning, meaning that the Giants only got one hit in nine innings. 

That is the number that should have the Reds kicking themselves as they go home to digest this loss. Their pitchers allowed one hit in nine innings, and three hits in 10 innings, yet didn’t win the ballgame. 

Cincinnati has gotten excellent pitching performances in two of the first three games of this series between Bailey’s outing on Tuesday and Bronson Arroyo allowing one run over seven innings. Bailey won’t pitch again in the NLDS, but Arroyo will start Game 5 if the series gets to that point. But the Reds have to be hoping they can close this out in Game 4.

 

Pitching in Giants’ Favor

Johnny Cueto’s injury was bound to wreak havoc on the Reds’ starting rotation—unless Cincinnati was able to complete a three-game sweep.

With the Giants’ victory, however, the Reds need a starter for Game 4 and they don’t know who it will be.

Cincinnati hopes Cueto will be able to start, but his injury is worse than originally feared. Back spasms can be alleviated in a few days with proper rest and treatment. Cueto, however, was found to have a mild oblique strain, which takes more time to heal.

Mat Latos, who pitched as a reliever in Game 1, has come down with what was initially reported as a flu bug. But Latos insists it’s “just some congestion,” according to the Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay, and presumably thinks he can pitch. 

The other option is to activate Mike Leake for the start. But if the Reds have to put Cueto on the disabled list to make room for Leake, he would be unavailable if Cincinnati advances to the NLCS.

Meanwhile, the Giants have a pitcher ready to go for Game 4 in Barry Zito. While that may draw some snickers because of how poorly he’s pitched in his previous five seasons for San Francisco, Zito pitched well this year.

He compiled a 15-8 record and 4.15 ERA, his best season in a Giants uniform. Zito has also reduced his fly ball rate over the past couple of seasons, which should help him while pitching at Great American Ball Park. 

The Giants also have Tim Lincecum available to pitch in long relief if Zito is ineffective. Lincecum might have to be used anyway after Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo each had to pitch two innings in Game 3. But there was a reason manager Bruce Bochy didn’t put him in the postseason starting rotation. Lincecum didn’t finish the season very strong, giving up 11 runs in his past two starts. 

 

Feeling the Pressure

It might seem silly to say that the Reds are now feeling pressure when the Giants have to win Game 4 to stay alive in the NLDS.

But the Reds do face some urgency. The Reds may not face elimination, but losing Game 4 would boost the Giants’ confidence even further. And it’s not difficult to imagine that Cincinnati would be feeling some doubts as to whether it can win the series after blowing a 2-0 series lead and letting the NLDS go to what amounts to a one-game playoff. 

It was easy to write the Giants off after losing the first two games of the series, putting them in the position of having to win three straight games at Cincinnati. But San Francisco couldn’t win those three games if it didn’t get the victory in Game 3.

Now the task is a bit easier. The Giants only have to win two straight games. And the Reds don’t want this series to become tied and go to a do-or-die game. 

 

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How the Cardinals Have Become Even Better Without Albert Pujols, Tony La Russa

Are the 2012 St. Louis Cardinals better than the 2011 team? Well, the 2011 Cardinals won the World Series and it’s difficult to finish the season with a better result than that.

In 2012, the Cards also finished with a lesser record (88-74) than the 2011 club (90-72). But last year, St. Louis had to go 18-8 in September while the Atlanta Braves collapsed with a 9-18 record to win the NL Wild Card.

This season, the Cardinals didn’t need a late-season surge to qualify for the postseason but were the beneficiary of the NL’s extra wild-card spot. Yet St. Louis also had to win the one-game Wild Card playoff on the road against a Braves team with a better record to advance to the NLDS versus the Washington Nationals

The 2012 edition of the Cardinals is also missing Albert Pujols, one of MLB‘s best hitters, from the lineup, along with one of the best managers in baseball history in Tony La Russa. Yet this team did make the playoffs and could return to the World Series in an NL playoff field in which no clear favorite has emerged. (The Cincinnati Reds might disagree with that.) 

Though it remains to be seen whether or not the 2012 Cardinals can match the accomplishments of the 2011 team and win a second consecutive World Series championship, it could be argued that this year’s squad features a more complete roster of pitchers and position players. 

 

The Lineup is Deeper

While the lineup did lose Pujols, the Cardinals arguably replaced him with several players this year.

Lance Berkman took over for Pujols at first base, coming off a resurgent season in which he hit 31 home runs with 94 RBI and a .959 OPS. Assorted injuries kept Berkman from making much of a contribution this season, but his move to first base created an opening in right field, allowing the Cardinals to sign Carlos Beltran. 

Did Beltran replace Pujols’ production in the lineup? He finished with a lower batting average and OPS, but with 32 home runs and 97 RBI, Beltran came close to matching Pujols’ run production. 

Berkman’s injury also provided Allen Craig with more playing time. Craig posted strong numbers as a reserve in the regular season and postseason last year, batting .315 with 11 homers and 40 RBI.

But with twice the number of plate appearances this season due to becoming the starting first baseman, Craig contributed a .307 batting average, .876 OPS, 22 home runs and 92 RBI.

Elsewhere in the lineup, Jon Jay provided more production at the plate than Colby Rasmus did before he was traded last season. Jay batted .305 with a .773 OPS in 502 plate appearances this season, giving the Cards an everyday player in center field that they didn’t have last year. 

 

Others Stepped it Up

Perhaps the other hitters in the Cardinals’ lineup knew they would have to increase their production with Pujols gone. But maybe those players also made natural improvements and benefited, as Craig did, from increased playing time.

Yadier Molina was already one of the best catchers in MLB and had a fine 2011 season, batting .305/.349/.465 with 32 doubles, 14 homers and 65 RBI. But Molina became an MVP candidate this year, compiling a .315/.373/.501 triple-slash average with 28 doubles, 22 home runs, 76 RBI and 12 stolen bases. 

David Freese hadn’t been able to make it through a full season without getting hurt. But the World Series MVP played in 144 games in 2012. By staying healthy, he was able to hit .293/.372/.467 with 20 home runs and 79 RBI. 

Cardinals pitchers elevated their level of play as well. 

When Chris Carpenter was sidelined during spring training after developing a nerve problem in his right shoulder, Lance Lynn was brought out of the bullpen in what may have been seen as a placeholder move until St. Louis could acquire or develop an adequate replacement for the starting rotation.

But Lynn developed into one of the team’s best starters, putting together an 18-7 record and 3.78 ERA. He was also the Cards’ best strikeout starting pitcher, racking up 180 K’s in 176 innings. 

Kyle Lohse had a fine 2011 season with a 14-8 record and 3.39 ERA. But this year, he became one of the elite pitchers in the NL, compiling a 16-3 record and 2.86 ERA. Lohse pitched well in the NL Wild Card Game as well, allowing two runs and six hits over 5.2 innings.

In the bullpen, La Russa went through several different closers during the 2011 season before settling on Jason Motte as the ninth-inning stopper. Following up on Motte’s postseason performance, current Cards manager Mike Matheny kept Motte as the closer all season long while also establishing regular roles for each reliever. 

Motte responded with 40 saves, nearly as many as the 47 saves the St. Louis bullpen earned collectively last season. Mitchell Boggs developed into an excellent setup man, while Fernando Salas provided a middle-inning strikeout threat. 

It’s yet to be determined if this year’s Cardinals team is better than the team that won the World Series last year.

Is it possible that the 2012 club could actually have more talent and a deeper roster yet not finish with championship results? Sure, but it would be hard to make that argument—especially when St. Louis still might not advance past the NLDS. 

If the Cardinals get into the NLCS and World Series, however, the moves and decisions that general manager John Mozeliak made before and during the 2012 season should definitely be celebrated.

 

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Athletics vs. Tigers: Is 2012 When Justin Verlander Shuts Up Big-Game Critics?

It’s difficult to believe that there could be much criticism for a pitcher who won the AL MVP and Cy Young Award last season. 

But Justin Verlander carried a question over whether or not he could win a big game—more specifically, a playoff game—coming into the postseason.

Those concerns quickly arose in Game 1 of the ALDS between the Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics, when Verlander served up a home run on his fourth pitch to A’s leadoff hitter Coco Crisp. Before fans at Comerica Park and those watching around the country on TV could settle in, the Tigers were down 1-0. 

Verlander quickly made those “Uh-oh!” feelings and “Here we go again!” sentiments go away, however. He allowed only two more hits while pitching seven innings and striking out 11 batters as the Tigers beat the A’s, 3-1, to take a 1-0 series lead. 

It wasn’t a smooth cruise for Verlander after giving up the leadoff home run to Crisp. Oakland batters made him work. Verlander threw 26 pitches in the first inning, leading to 78 pitches thrown after four innings. This looked to be a potentially short night for Verlander, and the A’s were likely rubbing their hands together in anticipation of facing Detroit’s weaker middle relievers. 

But 100-pitch limits don’t apply to Verlander. He averaged 114 pitches per appearance this season. Only once this year did he throw fewer than 100 pitches, with 97 in a Sept. 8 loss to the Los Angeles Angels

Besides, this is the playoffs. Verlander wasn’t going to come out without throwing at least 120 pitches—not with six days of rest since his last regular-season start. The only question was how deep into the game that would take him.

Verlander got some wiggle room when Alex Avila’s home run in the fifth inning gave Detroit a 3-1 lead. With a two-run cushion, perhaps he didn’t have to be as fine with his pitches. (Though a generous strike zone from home plate umpire Jim Reynolds didn’t squeeze Verlander very much.) Verlander followed up in the top of the sixth by striking out the side.

For the game, the Tigers ace threw 121 pitches. Detroit needed Verlander to come out strong and establish himself over the A’s from the beginning. He did exactly that on Saturday. Yes, it’s only one game, but starting off his 2012 postseason with an effort that should quiet all questions about his performance in big games is extremely promising.

In eight previous postseason starts, Verlander had a 3-3 record and 5.57 ERA. During last year’s playoff run with the Detroit Tigers, Verlander compiled a 5.36 ERA in four starts.

To be fair, his first playoff start in Game 1 of the 2011 ALDS versus the New York Yankees was shortened by rain, and he lasted only one inning and allowed one run. Maybe Verlander would have gone on to pitch five or six scoreless innings from that point, but the weather took care of that. 

The rain got Verlander again in the opening game of the ALCS, causing a delay of more than two hours that ended his night after four innings. 

Though the weather in Detroit Saturday night was typically chilly for an October evening, there was no rain. That already made Game 1 of this year’s ALDS better for Verlander—he knew he would be able to pitch without Mother Nature batting against him in addition to Oakland hitters. 

As Tigers manager Jim Leyland said after the game, the six-day rest probably took Verlander out of his routine. Nearly all athletes are typically creatures of habit, but a regular regimen is especially important for a starting pitcher, because that’s what he follows through a 162-game schedule and 33 starts.

So perhaps Verlander wasn’t at his sharpest to begin the game and that allowed the A’s to work up his pitch counts in the early innings. But then Avila hit his fifth-inning home run. You could see on TV how pumped up Verlander was when Avila came back to the dugout. That may have given him the extra juice he needed to finish off his night strongly.

With that, Verlander and the Tigers have gotten their 2012 postseason off to a better start than last year when they lost to the Yankees, 9-3. Detroit doesn’t have to play catch-up early in the series and it’s the A’s who are back on their heels going into Game 2. 

Those who picked the Tigers to advance in the playoffs and/or win the AL pennant likely did so for one reason: Verlander. He’s the kind of ace, the stud arm that can win two to three games and carry a team to success. 

He now has one of those wins in this ALDS. This postseason is already looking better for Verlander. The A’s and the rest of the MLB playoff field should be afraid.

 

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